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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On August 26 2010 06:11 Hesmyrr wrote:
I don't understand the argument. There are likely traitor among #2~4, and we lynch #3 b/c he picked PoD (not traitor)? What?
What I'm saying is: Lets assume all three spots have an equally likely chance of being the traitor. So how do we decide which player to lynch? We have to look at other factors to differentiate between the spots.
The other factor I think we should look at is "What player can hurt us the most by being mafia?". In my eyes, a mafia PoD is the worst, particularly in the short term. Yes a Bad Santa mafia can deal some damage, but only over time and we should be able to figure out if the Bad Santa role gets used.
Does this make sense? I'm not sure if I'm doing a great job explaining.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
As far as the other roles, I have a few suggestions.
Joat: Here's the way I think you should use your powers.
Night One: Investigate
If you find a mafia, then Shoot him on Night 2
If you find a townie, then Talk to whomever you think is most pro-town and reveal the info on Night 2
Night Three: Protect We'll likely have some public investigative roles who need protection by now.
Night Four leaves you with either Shoot or Talk. I recommend holding your shot until an investigative role finds a red. Talk can obviously be used at your discretion.
Rolecop should check Zeks tonight as we need to see if he is the traitor without shooting him.
Bullet Bill should check Pandain
Tracker should check Bumatlarge
I pick up scummy vibes from both these players. If people disagree that's fine, needs to be discussed.
Doctors should be weighting their protection between zeks, picks 14-16(likely trackers) and then slightly less on 11-13. 7-10 should be fairly protected via their likelyhood of having Vet, BP or Meth Man.
Bad Santa: Chaoser, assuming you are town aligned and picked Bad Santa, keep in mind that you have a fairly good investigative role. Since we all know you are the Bad Santa, you should be providing your list to the town right off the bat. You have 5 people on the list, if one dies and you don't get the option to shoot, it makes the others on the list more likely to be townies. You should keep your list to yourself for now(so mafia/sk can't abuse it) and reveal it at a time when you think we can glean some useful info from it.
The rest of the roles can do whatever they want.
+ Show Spoiler [ unrelated] +I feel like I've just realized why the Martyr role is kinda good, in that it allows an investigative role to claim and still get a decent measure of protection.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
EBWOP: Completely contradicted myself on the Bad Santa. Chaoser, you should keep your list to yourself until you think it's important to reveal.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
EBWOP2: Also, you should not use your kill unless it absolutely benefits the town. This would likely only happen in the late-game.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On August 26 2010 09:07 Fishball wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2010 05:42 SouthRawrea wrote:On August 26 2010 05:41 Fishball wrote:On August 26 2010 04:21 Radfield wrote:On August 26 2010 04:20 Fishball wrote:
Funny Traitor wannabe's, lol.
First off, Hesmyrr, we already know that rastaban would choose the CV and should be the CV now. Why would you pick CV in the first place? I don't really get it.
As for SouthRawrea, there is always a possibility that he is lying. The only logical motive I could think of if he is either Mafia/SK, is that he is wants to plant a seed of doubt in our top 5 draft picks. However, these roles, if done according to plan, are mainly Mafia aligned roles. Offing these roles doesn't exactly impact town much at all. However if the town pushes hard and goes through that list, then it could work as a decoy and waste our lynches/CV kills. Long shot? Yes. Likeliness? 33% I'd say.
Excluding SR himself, and rastaban who should be the CV. These are the people remaining on the list.
2. chaoser
3. LSB
4. Hesmyrr
5. zeks
If we are indeed looking to cast a vote among these people, before we make a decision, I suggest everyone should ask themselves a few questions.
- Is SR's claim likely to be true?
- If yes, is Hesymrr likely to be the Traitor?
- If no, who else could likely be the Traitor?
Right now, I'm inclined to believe SR's claim, but I'm not entirely sure who could be the Traitor. Although I'm still wanting to hear the reasoning from Hesymrr, why he would pick CV when it was a general consensus that our #1 draft pick should pick it. Did you read the plan? Will reply when I get home (in about 4-5 hours). Bust at work right now. He has time to write all that but not say yes or no? I think the answer we're looking at is not yet. Show nested quote +On August 26 2010 06:04 Fishball wrote:
Or the answer could more than just a yes/no.
At home now. I was on lunch break when I wrote the longer post, smart ass. Yes, I do know about the plan. I know it's 33% between CV, Bad Santa or PoD for the fourth draft, but to me at least, CV is guaranteed to be gone. It is one of the more powerful and interesting roles, regardless of alignment, when compared to others. Technically, I would only choose between Bad Santa or PoD, which increases my chance to actually land a blue role, as these two roles are somewhat less interesting (if you are not Mafia) compared to CV. Also, as the first pick, you just have to take CV. Let's say you are Townie, and you don't pick CV; When the town asks you to hit someone and you can't, you're just drawing unnecessary suspicion to yourself, and would most likely end up wasting the towns' resource, or worse, getting yourself lynched. If Mafia/SK doesn't pick CV, and they can actually hit whatever target the town wants them to, that would also be bad since the real CV would know they are lying. This is all probability, but that's just how I see it. It might sound like I'm accusing Hesymrr in my other post due to my wording, but I'm simply questioning his motives behind picking CV. Is it just random, random? Or is there actually more reasoning behind the decision. I realized I was being a bit redundant. Who would confess the second time if a person lied the first time, especially when he is not caught? Anyways, the explanation above is where I'm coming from.
The reason we felt it was important to put CV in that list of roles pick #4 should go for, is the possibility of a mafia at pick #1. If Mafia get pick #1, they can let the CV role slip down to another mafia at a lower pick. All of a sudden mafia KP gets doubled, and we have no idea who has the CompVig Role. By having Pick #4 randomize between the first 3 picks, it made it more risky for the mafia to employ this strategy.
Siniquity raises a good point, Hesmyrr is more likely to be the traitor given that he has much better cover. Both pick #2 and pick #3 run a decent chance of getting immediately caught by pick #4. Hesmyrr also has his history of being very against a traitor role, which also adds to his cover. He's a strong player though, and a loss to the town if he flips green.
Also, we should give suggestions to the SK on who he should hit. SK should be playing pro-town right now, and should be eliminating shady characters, or inactive players.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On August 26 2010 09:28 Subversion wrote:
shame, pandain always has suspicion thrown on him.
last game i played with him he was also suspected quite a lot, but he was in fact town. not that he's above suspicion, just take ur feelings towards him with a pinch of salt.
This is good to know. I haven't really played a game with him before, so it's important to get the perspective of people who have.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Well, at any rate we need a lynch in the next 4 hours. Hesmyrr seems like the obvious choice, but unfortunately we don't really get any info from this lynch. Mafia are just as in the dark as anyone else about his potential alignment so we can't really draw any conclusions based on who votes what.
I don't feel particularly strongly about any other player, and even if I did I doubt I could change many minds at this juncture.
##Vote Hesmyrr
On August 26 2010 12:03 ~OpZ~ wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2010 11:49 Ace wrote:On August 26 2010 11:41 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Obvious. He types my name, and breadcrumbs zeks, using my name for the z, so if mafia hit him and zeks is mafia, we know to lynch zeks...hurdur....
xD...
Or he makes a case against zeks, without saying he role checked him. If he starts going against someone he checked, then pops detective.
If he starts saying "blah blah, this person is right, blah blah" then that person is good.
Ace, Does RoleCop return role of mafia if the mafia investigated has another role, such as detective/medic/ect?
6.)What happens if a RoleCop checks someone without a role?
The result they get back is VANILLA. Otherwise the RC would be almost better than the Alignment Cop in this setup which would make no sense.
So if they do have a role the Role Cop...gets a role.
Right...Wow... ##Vote Radfield"Alignment Cop is weak compared to Role Cop" That ends my reasoning. Wow. We just walked down a windy road to death.
I love how you're complaining about the plan now. I posted my final plan about 36 hours before the drafting deadline, and posted my opening notes about 3 or 4 full days before the draft took place. Plenty of time for you to look through it and find any problems. Too bad you decided not to start playing until AFTER THE DRAFT. Really could have used your input about 3 days ago.
Not to mention you obviously never even read the plan in full. I detailed several times why I thought role cop was a far more powerful role then Alignment Cop, and I stand by that reasoning.
Twice this game you've tried to cast suspicion on me. Please focus your attentions elsewhere. I've said it before: If I'm still alive after Day 2, then you can start looking at me a little harder.
Anyways, Inactives. This game has been going almost a week(since we got our roles), who hasn't posted much:
Brownbear - on the verge of being Modkilled
DarthThienAn - A few posts with content, not much. Claims he's SC2ing
JeeJee - Lots of little posts addressing people, no content. Seems like actively lurking.
Chaoser - A bit of activity, not much content. Giving an excuse for less activity in the short term: Just got his wisdom teeth removed
Probably a few others, no one really jumps out at me though
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Ace, just wondering if we can have the night/day end at 9EST instead of 10EST.
Has nothing to do with this lynch, but I thought I'd mention it again.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On August 27 2010 09:09 Ace wrote:
Sure, I'll make it so that Night 1/Day2 ends/starts tomorrow night @9PM ET.
Perfect, thanks Ace.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On August 28 2010 00:18 JeeJee wrote:
i do find it odd that sr is asking himself to be lynched just because he guessed the traitor placement wrong. if anything, he should get cv'd, but if he flips vanilla town, we wouldn't be any further along and i don't think a mafia would just ask for a selflynch (wifom blah blah)
otoh is traitor hunting even that high of a priority? unless mafia kp goes up to 2 with that extra player, its not like it's monumental enough to drop everything else imo
No it's not that high priority, but it was worth going after on a day 1 lynch. We'll see what we have to go on after night 1.
That being said, we cannot rely on investigative roles to win us this game. My plan was designed with the hope that we would get as many investigative roles picked, but that doesn't matter anymore. There is a chance that town has zero investigative roles, and we all need to play as if that is the case.
Yes we should be listing players and suggesting targets to the investigative roles, and obviously we'll deal with claims as they come up, but we absolutely cannot rely on any roles to actually find us anything. We all need to scum hunt, and we all need to work with what is in the thread.
Here's what everyone has claimed so far:
[list = ordered]
rastaban---- Comp Vig
Chaoser ---- Bad Santa
LSB ---- Prince of Darkness
Hesmyrr ---- Vanilla
Zeks ---- Role Cop, Defensive role or Copy Cat(??)
Southrawrea ---- Traitor ------> Vanilla
Subversion --- Picked whatever, Did not follow the plan
Fishball
Opz ---- Followed the plan --> Joat or Defensive role
Citizen
BrownBear
JeeJee
DarthThienAn
siNiquity
Divinek ----- Day Vig
Radfield
Bill Murray ---- Mason
Bumatlarge
Pandain ---- Mason
[/list]
The people in the middle may or may not have followed the plan. Frankly it doesn't matter at this point, and all of you should keep your mouths as shut as possible regarding your roles(unless there is a reason of course).
All I'm saying is, we all have to play our best to find mafia. We can't just sit back and hope that the Cops/Tracker/Bullet Bill will save us. Everyone should be searching and everyone should be very active. So far in this game, very little pressure has been put on any inactive player, and that needs to change for Day 2.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On August 28 2010 00:18 JeeJee wrote:
i do find it odd that sr is asking himself to be lynched just because he guessed the traitor placement wrong. if anything, he should get cv'd, but if he flips vanilla town, we wouldn't be any further along and i don't think a mafia would just ask for a selflynch (wifom blah blah)
otoh is traitor hunting even that high of a priority? unless mafia kp goes up to 2 with that extra player, its not like it's monumental enough to drop everything else imo
You're right, that is odd. Hesmyrr was perhaps the most likely, but picks 2,3 and 5 are also very plausibly the traitor. Looking at zeks' spot, it actually makes sense for him to go as traitor. He is in a key spot for the town, and by not picking like he was supposed to(role cop or defensive role), he cuts down on our having a good town role. So by picking traitor, he both helps the mafia, and hurts the town, all in one blow.
If we do have a role cop, I think it's worth checking zeks, as the role cop is the only investigative role that can determine if he is the traitor.
I think if we do decide to kill Southrawrea, I agree it should be via the CompVig, solely for the chance that he could be the vengeful player.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
whoops, messed up the list command(always preview!). Should look like this:
- rastaban---- Comp Vig
- Chaoser ---- Bad Santa
- LSB ---- Prince of Darkness
- Hesmyrr ---- Vanilla
- Zeks ---- Role Cop, Defensive role or Copy Cat(??)
- Southrawrea ---- Traitor ------> Vanilla
- Subversion --- Picked whatever, Did not follow the plan
- Fishball
- Opz ---- Followed the plan --> Joat or Defensive role
- Citizen
- BrownBear
- JeeJee
- DarthThienAn
- siNiquity
- Divinek ----- Day Vig
- Radfield
- Bill Murray ---- Mason
- Bumatlarge
- Pandain ---- Mason
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
You're right about Bad Santa Opz. I really hope I got put on that list 
Darth is a good choice for BulletBill.
JeeJee is a good option for tracker. I would also support Fishball or Bumatlarge. Both pick #2 and pick #3 are good options for an investigative role as well, as those are dangerous slots.
Alternate options for BulletBill would be any of the players listed above, except for Chaoser at pick 2(Bad Santa will return a positive)
I think rolecop should look at zeks, but of course Chaoser or LSB would be fine as well.
Joat, if you are going to use your 'investigate' tonight, I recommend not looking at any of the first 6 picks. Those spots will likely get resolved through checks and lynches over the next few cycles. Instead I would look further down the list. Players not worth checking in my eyes are Opz, Citizen, Brownbear(modkill?), Siniquity, Divinek or Pandain. However, a check on any of these players is fine as well.
Citizen, the watcher role sucks, so we don't have to fear too much about mafia finding out our blues through us telegraphing our moves. There is no other role that has that kind of investigative power.
Doctors, this may sound cheesy, but I recommend one of you look at protecting me tonight. I have a fairly long history of dying night one, and I plan on doing some serious scum hunting this weekend. Consider it at any rate.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On August 28 2010 07:48 BrownBear wrote:
I'll claim. I missed the rolepicking deadline, so I'm vanilla.
And I know I've been inactive, I'm sorry. It's about to be orientation week and I'm working my ass off.
WTF? I said to NOT claim. Claiming helps the mafia far more than helping town.
Do not claim your roles!
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Fuck. We have a new target for the medic.
Assuming people followed the plan( ), we have 4 possible role cops.
Zeks: Could be traitor
Fishball: 50% Role Cop, 50% Defensive Role
Brownbear: Vanilla
Bill Murray: Mason
Good chance we have no role cop....
Anyways, Fishball becomes a higher priority medic protection. Mind you he is still a 50% Defensive role, but if Mafia have a roleblocker, they may roleblock + NK. It's what I would do.
Not even sure who's around right now. Remember medics, there are 2 of you(hopefully) and the Joat, so feel free to flip a coin or RNG between the potential candidates.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
So, Serial Killer picked off a mafia.
Someone took a hit from the mafia. If you took a hit, might as well tell us. Just say "I have taken a hit". No need to mention a medic or bulletproof or anything. We can all stay in the dark as far as that's concerned.
However, if you got shot, you are off the list of mafia(but not SK)
I assume that it was a medic protection, since I also assume that mafia have the roleblocker, which means defensive roles shouldn't scare them too much.
Also, why was subversion vanilla scum?? I assume it's because he didn't read the plan and took PoD, CV or Bad Santa. There is really no reason for mafia not to get every role they wanted though. In fact, the plan assumed this.
This bodes well on the mafia not really communicating well
Best case scenario all around!
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On August 28 2010 10:23 zeks wrote:
Considering the benefits of hitting me:
1. Role cop - you nail a good town role
2. I'm suspected of being a traitor - hitting me might possibly nab the traitor
3. One less possibility of someone being traitor
Still a chance you're the traitor and they hit you last night
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
You most certainly would 
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Nice to have you back Darth. Who do you think is scummy? Who do you think we should lynch today?
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Hmm. Lets look at this a little closer.
Going into last night, mafia had a few options. Obviously they want to use their abilities to try and pick up the potential traitor. The traitor is in one of 4 spots. 2,3,5,6.
If we assume that the mafia only picked up red roles, and didn't risk getting vanilla by going after townie roles, then the only role they have with a night action is roleblocker. If I'm mafia, I would roleblock zeks, and target someone else. I wouldn't roleblock zeks, and then try to NK him.
Roleblocking zeks is great, because if he's traitor you pick him up, if he's town(50% role cop) then you block his power. Also, you avoid the potential of him being the meth man and blowing yourself up.
The only real reason I can see the mafia targeting zeks with a NK, is if they don't have the roleblocker. Just to be clear here zeks, you were not roleblocked, correct?
My guess is, if the mafia don't have the roleblocker, the SK does, which is a scary thought, but means that a mafia likely got vanilla trying for it. Or the mafia avoided the red roles to try and blend in against the role cop.
All that aside, who is our likely traitor/red in the top 6. I'm inclined to believe Southrawrea at the moment. He looks bad for going after the traitor role, but after he tried for it and failed, it makes total sense that he would claim it in the thread. That story makes more sense to me, and is more believable, than him being a mafia and playing the way he has, with some grand scheme to delay us or use vengeful player etc.
Personally, I think zeks is likely the traitor, and I think it likely that he got picked up last night. More likely than the others at least. I believe there is an easy way to mainly clear zeks in my eyes. He roleclaims.
At pick #5, zeks would risk a lot by lying about his roleclaim. He stated he followed the plan, although he actually contradicted himself:
First he very clearly states what he did
On August 25 2010 10:42 zeks wrote:
i used random.org went exactly with this:
#5 50% Role Cop, 50% Defensive role(Vet, Meth Man, or Bulletproof. 33% chance of each)
1-50 rolecop
50-67 vet
67-83 bulletproof
83-100 methman
just sayin, i'm hoping everyone below me follows the plan as well.
Then 12 hours later, he states that he actually went with a different set-up??
On August 26 2010 00:33 zeks wrote:
you did go with radfield's list?
if everything went according to that then the people who picked before you:
rastaban - CV
chaoser - Bad Santa
LSB - PoD
Hesmyrr - said he was picking anti-town role (if i remember correctly)
Me - role cop / copy cat / defensive role (33/33/33)
i know u shouldn't be announcing the role but this could be a place to start
Oops. That's a bit odd. Care to clear up for us which one you actually went with Zeks?
Even if that was an honest mistake(uh huh), lets look at what a roleclaim would mean. Zeks is either a role cop, a defensive role, or maybe the copy cat(?). Anything he claims is at a risk to double with someone below him. Fishball is a 50% role cop. 3 players below zeks are 50% defensive role, and another 2 are 25% defensive role. Copy Cat is testable since presumably he had to mason up with someone, so that person could vouch for him(with no risk to the other person).
Either way, it forces zeks(who I believe to be the traitor) to take a risk, where we could immediately pin him. There is potential that a mafia member has the role cop or defensive role, which would allow zeks to make an uncontested role claim, but at least this gives us a chance.
- If zeks claims rolecop, then he checks someone and reveals the result. Town would vote on whom he would check. He could also reveal his last nights check as a way of clearing himself, but presumably if he was the rolecop he would have checked spots 2 or 3, which is obvious.
- If zeks claims defensive role, we have no way of double checking, but can only hope he collides with someone below him.
- If zeks claims Copy Cat then it's an easy confirmation.
Thoughts? Please keep in mind that the top three players all would run a 33% risk of immediately being found out by hesmyrr if they chose traitor. Also note that in my eyes Occam's Razor would lean towards Southrawrea telling the truth(it's less risky and less complicated). Zeks is also in the position where him taking traitor hurts the town and helps the mafia at the same time, making it extra advantageous to take traitor.
I would like to hear everyone's thoughts on this. Personally, I think we should lynch zeks. Zeks flipping traitor gives us an excellent paper trail as well, and I have what I think is a great CV suggestion if he does indeed flip red.
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EPT
