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I was never sold on the fact that PoD is a pure anti-town role.
I mean sure its two night phases we skip a lynch (most of the time we lynch one of our own) and mafia gets 2 kills - but doesn't it also give our town roles more chances to act? (ie. cops get double the checks)
We'd also have more information going into the next day to make a more educated lynch. It's just essentially a no lynch don't see how it can give scum a big advantage which is what people have been suggesting.
Having said that I am against a no lynch tonight just cause I think its imminent to nab the traitor
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Ill put the nail in the coffin. I think we've had enough discussion (which is why I unvoted yesterday) but I feel relatively good about the lynch
##vote Hesmyrr
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^ why would you ask for a lynch...
what are you trying to pull
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as much as i'm not a big fan of OpZ's play i agree with most of his suggestions for blues
take into consideration what you know already (the roles that are already put out there) and the likelihood of other peoplehaving roles (ie. 7-10) then make an informed decision.
usually the simplest answer is the answer.
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worst yet he was in the middle of the draft order
but note that he's Vanilla by not picking at all
not picking something that was picked
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I survived the hit last night.
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Considering the benefits of hitting me:
1. Role cop - you nail a good town role
2. I'm suspected of being a traitor - hitting me might possibly nab the traitor
3. One less possibility of someone being traitor
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On August 28 2010 10:25 Radfield wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2010 10:23 zeks wrote:
Considering the benefits of hitting me:
1. Role cop - you nail a good town role
2. I'm suspected of being a traitor - hitting me might possibly nab the traitor
3. One less possibility of someone being traitor
Still a chance you're the traitor and they hit you last night 
In which case I would be scum now.
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On August 28 2010 16:53 DarthThienAn wrote:
Hmm.
Let's assume zeks is traitor and was recruited by a mafia night action. Assuming no one counterclaims taking a hit later today, mafia targeted him with their night kill - like someone said, win/win in regard to zeks being #5 and possible traitor.
What are the advantages of him coming forward about being hit? Well, it buys him credibility (posting almost immediately), and it's a pro-town thing to claim after being hit by mafia (it was obviously a mafia hit, unless, again, a counterclaim later today).
What are the disadvantages? People know he took a hit, and therefore, he's thrust into the spotlight. Why would he claim if he could've just slipped by while the town raged about someone not coming forward? Stay in the shadows, etc. To me, it makes a lot more sense for him not to say anything, and to stay under the radar and all that. So I really doubt that he's the traitor.
Another thing I'd like to point out is that mafia most likely don't have roleblocker - zeks would've claimed "roleblocked" as well if that was the case, correct? It makes the most sense for mafia to roleblock + night hit the same person, just in case of bulletproof. Especially with only 1 KP, it makes missing a hit/failing a hit extremely costly for them. This is assuming that zeks isn't a traitor lying to us of course.
This.
Subversion flipped Vanilla. Scum has a maximum of 4? actions given all scum drafted something. I think it would make sense to throw all their actions out to fish out the traitor now that the top 6 is heavily under suspicion. However, instead of using a role-action to try to recruit me they decided to use their hit.
Like DTA said what advantages would I have from claiming a hit? Obviously I don't expect to suddenly be the center of the town circle free of all innoncence, I just think it's a pro-town move on my part and it doesn't get us finger pointing everywhere.
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Radfield: I went with the 33/33/33 role cop / copy cat / defensive role because there was mention that copycat should be picked earlier. I truthfully randomed my role.
Something that I've discovered
SR #6 below me is assumed vanilla town, Subversion at #7 was vanilla mafia
Which means Subversion could've overlaped with
1. rastaban CV
2. chaoser Bad Santa/traitor
3. LSB PoD/traitor
5. me RC/CC/Defensive role/traitor
Likelihood of Subversion picking
CV
next to nothing
Bad Santa or PoD
Don't see why Subversion will pick those either.
Traitor:
He's scum so he wouldn't pick traitor.
me: RC/CC/Defensive Role
Subversion likely overlapped with me and since Subversion is dead then it is likely that scum would know what my role is...
Unless Subversion overlapped with SouthRawrea, then that means South never picked traitor in the beginning - which doesn't make sense because South would be a townie with a role but lied about being a traitor
Thus conclusion: mafia knows my role and wants me dead by lynch since they couldn't finish the job last night
Which is why I'm not claiming because they will call me out on it.
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I think what I said proves I'm not the traitor and in fact the traitor is either #2 chaoser or #3 LSB.
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On August 29 2010 04:44 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On August 29 2010 04:41 zeks wrote:
Radfield: I went with the 33/33/33 role cop / copy cat / defensive role because there was mention that copycat should be picked earlier. I truthfully randomed my role.
Something that I've discovered
SR #6 below me is assumed vanilla town, Subversion at #7 was vanilla mafia
Which means Subversion could've overlaped with
1. rastaban CV
2. chaoser Bad Santa/traitor
3. LSB PoD/traitor
5. me RC/CC/Defensive role/traitor
Likelihood of Subversion picking
CV
next to nothing
Bad Santa or PoD
Don't see why Subversion will pick those either.
Traitor:
He's scum so he wouldn't pick traitor.
me: RC/CC/Defensive Role
Subversion likely overlapped with me and since Subversion is dead then it is likely that scum would know what my role is...
Unless Subversion overlapped with SouthRawrea, then that means South never picked traitor in the beginning - which doesn't make sense because South would be a townie with a role but lied about being a traitor
Thus conclusion: mafia knows my role and wants me dead by lynch since they couldn't finish the job last night
Which is why I'm not claiming because they will call me out on it.
Okay, so the Mafia already knows your role. Why aren't you telling us? Are you worried the Mafia is going to fake claim? If that happens, we can easily kill the Mafia. Are you hiding something?
Assuming mafia knows my role - then they already know how I survived last night.
I'm not going to get into a 1v1 role claim / counter claim scenario - look what happened to the citi.zen vs. SouthRawrea mad hatter counter claim. I don't think that would be in town's best interest.
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Or Subversion also picked a defensive role and overlapped with me.
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Fine. I'm role cop. I checked Fishball - I don't want to reveal what he is as now we're practically in a mass roleclaim mode and it would not benefit the town to know what he is: however I will tell you that he did not follow the town's plan either.
I have no idea how bumatlarge got only 4 people from his watch, because I'm not the SK and I lived - to my surprise so someone must've protected me.
I know I'm going to die today as now I fit the perfect profiling of an SK - but please evaluate why LSB was so sure I was role cop - not to mention now only 2 suspects are remaining for the traitor and he is one of them. Radfields push for my lynch and wanting to know who I rolecheck I also find a little bit suspicious.
I apologize for my poor play and allowing scum to corner me this easily. If I go down today I blame no one but myself.
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On August 24 2010 08:16 Radfield wrote:Citi.zen's Post + Show Spoiler +On August 23 2010 23:55 citi.zen wrote:
I like the probabilistic nature of the list, but still fret about how the mafia/Sk can take advantage of it.
Some concerns:
1. "Reserved" roles.
Lower drafting mafia (and the SK, for that matter) can take whatever role they want and claim they didn't get any role. For example, grab any of Pardoner / Floridian(great for SK) / Role Blocker / God Father then say "uhhh... I went for a defensive role but it was taken". I know Radfield said he's not too concerned with these roles, but to me they are a HUGE deal late game - think of all the missed lynches we can have. They are, after all, in the game to help the mafia. It's true that in principle we could verify "plain vanilla" claims, but in reality sorting it out will take too long & the mafia can always justify their claim based on how dead people flipped. So all these roles are too safe for the mafia to grab for my liking.
2. Blue sniping.
The list still makes finding investigative roles quite easy once the lynchings start. Once the meth man is dead th SK can get a very clear hit list with likely bullet bill and the tracker candidates.
I cannot emphasize this enough: once the drafting phase is over, don't start claiming your roles in the thread unless yo are 100% sure it leads to catching a liar. You might think claiming what you got or didn't get does you no harm, but remember it will also reveal information about other players.
3. The list.
For me there are two key town investigative roles: bullet bill and tracker. These are great roles to find mafia and the only ones to detect the SK. The alignment cop is also important, but given their uncertain sanity + inability to detect SK/GF it's a lot weaker in my book. I'd suggest prioritizing bullet bill over all other investigative roles, placing tracker next on our list and leaving the alignment cop for last.
Finally, please don't just feel like you are doing your job at this stage by using an RNG and calling it a day. Help us improve this plan by thinking critically, or we'll be screwed later on. First off, something we need to be very careful of: If we follow this plan, no one can reveal if they got, or did not get the role they went for. DO NOT STATE IF YOU GET YOUR ROLE OR NOT. Posting that you are vanilla gives the mafia the information they need to hunt down our powerful investigative roles. It's very important that everyone's role, or lack of a role, is kept hidden, at least for the first part of the game. Citizen, remember that by leaving those roles(Pardoner, Floridian, RB, GF) for the mafia, we also gain another powerful investigative role in the rolecop. Which takes us from BB and tracker, to BB, tracker and rolecop. So I think it turns out fairly neutral both ways; If they choose to go after the more powerful roles, then we also get a more powerful rolecop. Again, no one should be claiming what they did or did not get in the thread. The exception to this would be if you were pick 5 and went for rolecop (or pick6 and joat, or pick7 and Bullet Bill) and the role was already taken. Since you are the first person available to take that role(according to the plan), it means a mafia must be in front of you, and swiped the role. Show nested quote +On August 24 2010 05:42 ~OpZ~ wrote:
And also, Radfield, you seem to be in the same mindset as PYP 1. Weren't you SK that game?
My recommendation would be for Radfield to be tracked night one. BM to be Bullet Billed. If there is a watcher, I'd say watch Radfield, and I would be more than happy to request medic protection on him.
I would look into Fishball also, but knowing what I know about Fishball, I wouldn't expect too much from him til later in the game.
<3 Fishball
I was SK that game, and my plan was to play extremely pro-town, which I did with stunning success. So much success, that the mafia Day-Vigged me. So if you're trying to say I seem extremely pro-town, then thanks But you raise a good point, at no time can anyone be confirmed to be non-SK solely through their actions. The SK should look like a townie, because it's in the SK's best interest to kill off the mafia. Also, If you truly think I'm the Serial Killer, you would try to keep me around, not try to kill me off. I made cases against and lynched a mafia on both Day 1 and Day 2 in PYP1, as well as soaking up a hit from the mafia. At pick #16 I don't need medic protection. Honestly, chances are I'll end up vanilla, which means it's my job to take hits. If I last past night 2, then we can start burning up investigative night actions on me. It's far too early to be trying to place night actions anyways. We still have 48hours before day 1 ends, and 72 hours before those night actions need to be in place. Plenty of time to scum hunt.
Getting as much of my analysis and information out there before I die (scum has built a wonderful case on me as being SK and getting the attention diverted away from scum hunt):
First Radfield told people not to state their role. I randomed rolecop so I didn't go against the plan at all with the whole exception thing. So I didn't roleclaim because I think its agreed that roleclaiming is a bad idea, but Radfield (and LSB) are pushing for my claim. Not to mention he also suggests keeping the SK around to kill off mafia and soak up hits. And now for some reason he wants me (supposedly the SK) dead - probably cause the SK is a legit threat to scum now since he nailed Subversion successfully day 1 (gj to whoever the SK is btw)
I think he also suggested not to roleclaim yet now he's so interested in what my investigative results were for day 1. Kinda fishy imo. I am going to take the day 1 role check info to the grave - to avoid more people's roles revealed.
Night kill should go to LSB
I think its established that only LSB or chaoser can be the traitor
LSB pointed me out so quickly so its pretty obvious that he knew what I was. In fact its extremely likely that my role was figured out after the Hesmyrr/SR traitor fiasco, since by process of elimination Subversion could only have picked what I had picked.
I wouldn't be surprised if LSB is already recruited. Why?
If I were suspected as the traitor mafia would send someone to use an action on me to recruit me. Why instead did they use a kill? Because they KNEW I wasn't a traitor after the Hesmyrr lynch and I was actually a role cop from Subversion being vanilla. - Just figured this out.
Thus they must've used their actions on LSB to recruit him - and now that the focus has been to nab the SK he has fallen under the radar. In fact he should the #1 suspect of being scum.
So scum knew I was rolecop and could not have possibly been the traitor, and since I lived through the night he and scum all knew I either got protected or was the SK. But they didn't know what happened which is why in the posts a couple pages back LSB kept raising the fact that medics couldn't have protected me to paint me as the SK (but in fact I DID get protected as it has been raised in many people's plans to get medics to protect me).
Conclusions/summary:
1. After Hesmyrr lynch, scum knew I was role cop (and cannot possibly be traitor).
2. Thus the traitor is either 2 or 3, and by my posting analysis it is likely to be 3. LSB so mafia likely sent in actions to recruit him
3. Mafia failed to kill me, so I can only be SK or protected.
4a. The SK currently is considered more of a threat to scum (from the amazing Subversion snipe) so since they think I'm the SK getting rid of me would reduce what they consider a threat.
b. If I'm not SK then they'd still get rid of a role cop - a strong pro town role in its own right.
I wanted to hold out of claiming in the beginning to bait these people out, and when I die today I think I've accomplished more than enough even though I'm the role cop.
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I want to point out in an earlier post of mine that I have no idea how bum got 4 out of the watcher check.
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On August 29 2010 12:30 DarthThienAn wrote:Show nested quote +On August 29 2010 09:26 bumatlarge wrote:
Look at darth trying to downplay what i did. How could I not have claimed without sealing that deal? SK will die (hopefully) because of me. And declaring people as town is FoS in my book, Ive seen and done it all too often. Hell call anyone scum, but watch what you say about clean people.
I dont really need medic protection unless we plan something, oh what kill are we missing? If I die kill darth, divine, pandain. YEAH THATS RIGHT KILL EM. ? At the time of your post, it didn't make sense for you to claim like you did. Especially since you were trying to clear zeks as an innocent, when he's either SK or traitor. You watched zeks and saw 4 people visit him. You assumed it was mafia, doctor, role cop, and some other role, when it was just mafia (Ace hadn't clarified at the time). So what did you accomplish? Aside from outting yourself, all you said was, "zeks was visited by 4 people." What happened as a result of that is great, but it's not something you had planned, and so from that perspective, the claim wasn't effective. @zeks: 1. How did scum know you were role cop? I guess if you're assuming that Subversion went for role cop. When he could've just as easily gone for any of the top 3 picks, any other role, or not picked at all. 2. Well, I mean, if you're not traitor and SR isn't lying, it's pretty obvious that the traitor is 2 or 3. I too think LSB is more likely traitor though. 3. Let's say you're role cop. Mafia hit you. You survived. How? Explain this to me ^^, Mr. SK/Traitor. 4a. You consider yourself more a threat to the scum... why? Aside from potentially killing one of them (which didn't happen last PYP I don't think, so congrats on your hit), the SK helps the mafia by bringing the town numbers down quicker, doesn't he? So why would scum want to get rid of you? b. It's all a conspiracy ^^. 1. Its all likelihood - he won't go for the top 3 picks because 1. the plan and likeliness of a top 3 pick passed down to him at #7. It should be agreed that getting a role is better than not getting a role. Most simple answer is usually the answer. 2. Glad you agree. 3. I got protected by a JOAT/medic. If you ask why only 4 people were tracked to me (4 mafia?) I would tell you bum lied. 4a. Not myself, I consider the SK a threat because the SK made a good hit so I guess the SK must be thinking pro-town right now thus scum would want to get rid of the SK asap. The SK can be your best friend or your worst enemy. b. I think it has been agreed by most that role cop is one of the top town roles to get early - seeing as the finalized list having role cop as early as #5. So let me get this straight: you're claiming Town Role Cop?
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Oops I quoted the whole thing including my own comments. Yes, I'm a Town Role cop.
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LSB: Yes, claiming the hit was a terrible mistake on my part. Made your job (as scum) a lot easier. My intentions were pro-town.
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EPT
