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Bill Murray wrote:
in all likelihood the scummy players haven't posted yet unless it's someone like brownbear who knows it's ok to. noob scum will be like "what should i say?" as opposed to just playing.
This is a very weird first post. His first post is used to defend everyone that has previously posted. As someone who is experienced, I'd think he knows that determining mafia by post time really isn't helpful. I think we should be suspicious of people who defend others so early, because mafia have the best reasons to do so.
On August 06 2010 12:03 Bill Murray wrote:
I proclaim the Random Voting Stage hereby dead.
I am voting not for randomness, but because I actually believe Divinek is Mafia.
He's already claimed this to be a lie, because he went on to say that Divinek was part of the RVS.
He started a bandwagon on Divinek to save himself (BM is at 3 (i think) votes at the start of this and Divinek ends up temporarily at 3 due to rastaban). In previous games, even as green, he has done similar random vote plans but he was up front about it being RVS before. He didn't claim RVS time was OVER and then vote for someone for really being red and then turn around and say ~"oh I was lying, actually I was fucking around like usual”.
This random vote thing is stupid at best, since he telegraphed his reasoning, but it is scummy at most likely. I know Mr. Baby Hands did similar things but he didn't do it this clumsily.
My response to BM's soft blue claim:
If red, he would be desperate at that point and so it's sort of a no brainer to claim blue and plant doubt.
He has gone on the record asking for blues to claim to him even though he is not at all confirmed. He has also suggested that blues claim in the thread as their specific roles. He said veterans could lie and say they are more hit-juicy roles. Yet he himself only soft-claims? I find this to disprove his stated motives. If he believed in his plan he could get the ball rolling by following it.
Bill Murray starts his voting with “now the game gets serious” and now tries to play it off as shits and giggles. He's clearly trying to create chaos to save himself – the question is whether he is worth saving. Seems to me there are more pro-town ways to defend one's self than to do random attacks to find one that sticks. If he was blue, he could be more low profile although low profile is not really his style. As blue, he could still try pointing out why suspicions about him are not founded, rather than creating more and more suspicions.
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2. Foolishness
Foolishness wrote:
Bill Murray's attitude is awfully serious for his norm...
Hmm.
Foolishness's very first post serves to distance himself from Bill Murray.
On August 06 2010 12:37 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On August 06 2010 12:30 Bill Murray wrote:
I am actually fishing with the Divinek wagon.
Whoever the 3rd person to vote on it is is going to be lynched imo I once new a guy who swore by the fact that the third person to talk at the start of the first day was mafia. Yes...you just reminded me of him...did I mention he was never right about anything?
Second post is again about how Bill Murray is playing weird. Foolishness voted BC Day 1 last game for less. Yet Foolishness goes right from this to being Bill Murray's best buddy.
On August 06 2010 13:07 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On August 06 2010 12:53 Pandain wrote:On August 06 2010 12:25 Bill Murray wrote:
Pandain is #2 on my suspect list behind Divinek due to PM-land Says the guy trying to get me to reveal my role. I think we should seriously take a look at this brodooski...he's yet to make any real contribution, despite an overflowing of posts. He got pretty defensive when divinek voted for him, which isn't fool proof I know, but it's definitely something to take note of. Bill Murray, I may not have any idea how you're playing these days, but I'd totally support you against this brodooski.
Bill Murray responds by saying he is playing his usual way (see my previous posts to see how this is true, at least for his usual way of playing Godfather. Not so much for town-aligned roles). Foolishness bites and then jumps on Pandain for a completely blameless post mentioning BM sketchily fishing for blue roles in pms (before posting his blue claim plan). When I previously said Foolishness Chainsaw Defended Bill Murray from Divinek, I meant Pandain. Sorry.
Pandain is making a very important post here. Why should BM be fishing for blue roles? Running for town mayor a few games ago, he said he would follow town. It was as Godfather that BM came up with ideas to get town to give up their roles. There's no good reason to be role fishing this early before town can even discuss plans (Pandain even came up with a much safer one). Foolishness certainly knows this and I'm sure he'd be all over BM for this if they weren't on the same team. Foolishness is certainly not usually pro day 1 role claiming to completely unconfirmed sketchmobiles. No way.
On August 06 2010 13:25 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On August 06 2010 13:21 Pandain wrote:On August 06 2010 13:17 youngminii wrote:On August 06 2010 13:16 Divinek wrote:On August 06 2010 13:14 youngminii wrote:On August 06 2010 13:07 Foolishness wrote:On August 06 2010 12:53 Pandain wrote:On August 06 2010 12:25 Bill Murray wrote:
Pandain is #2 on my suspect list behind Divinek due to PM-land Says the guy trying to get me to reveal my role. I think we should seriously take a look at this brodooski...he's yet to make any real contribution, despite an overflowing of posts. He got pretty defensive when divinek voted for him, which isn't fool proof I know, but it's definitely something to take note of. Bill Murray, I may not have any idea how you're playing these days, but I'd totally support you against this brodooski. Naw Pandain played like this last game. I thought it was scummy too and that evidence was supported by a freaking DT check but he ended up flipping miller. I mean I was so sure he was scum... but that makes you wonder what he'd give off if he was actually scum doesnt it I don't think he'd be too much of a threat if he was scum (no offense Pandain) and I dunno it would be his first time as scum wouldn't it? He'd drop scumtells all over the place imo. Its True  Note: Kill Youngmini Tonight. Why wait until tonight when we got a lynch today?
This is not classic townie foolishness at all. Foolishness wouldn't instigate or flare up shit like this with provocative spam. If he was blue or ninja, he wouldn't be so divisive. Maybe to defend a fellow mafia power player.
On August 06 2010 13:41 Foolishness wrote:Yo guys...now I don't want to cause a commotion or anything...but I think it's Chezinu...
Foolishness is usually the number one complainer about spam, but here the spam-hater has become the spam-hatee. Now spam is not a tell to me, without a lot of other evidence. What is a tell, here, is that Foolishness is waaaay less caring about the quality and helpfulness of his posts this game than usual.
Now let's take a look at BM's PM's with Pandain:
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actually, you are.
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Original Message:
All wifom man. You can tell me your role of course, I'll take it with a grain of salt. But frankly right as of now you're acting mafia-ish to me.
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Original Message:
exactly. would mafia do what i'm doing? use your head.
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Original Message:
haha, no way lol. What are we, 30 minutes in? Rofl.
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Original Message:
care to share roles? pretty sure you're town
Looks like blue fishing to me. Why does he try to hide this at first and only make his claim demands public after Pandain brings it up? Why would Foolishness suddenly see this as a good idea even in a game with no blue counts? Why would Foolishness rip into me and Pandain for bringing this up when he is usually fine with ripping into big players for less sketchy things on Day 1? :-/
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On August 07 2010 10:37 SouthRawrea wrote:
Question: Pyrr, seeing as how everyone thinks you're a ninja, what do you ahve to gain from getting him lynched? Is this your way of saying that you are not in fact a ninja?
Also... what page are those PMs from? O.o
They're from Pandain I doubt he has a problem with me posting them since they don't hurt the town in any way to be posted.
Well I'm not a ninja but if I was a ninja I would probably still make arguments as if I was a townsperson so using this as a defense against being a ninja would be useless.
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Pandain has the best plan thus far, I think.
We pick THIS GUY based on PL Finals results.
Trackers all track THIS GUY. Watchers all watch THIS GUY.
Assuming people follow this plan:
If watchers see nothing, THIS GUY is a ninja.
If watchers see one person, we can kill THIS GUY to prove he is not a ninja and then the watcher(s) and tracker(s) can claim to each other and town and we have a circle. Two mafia could counterclaim at this point and we would have a list of 4 with two mafia on it.
If watchers see more than one person, it could be kinda tough. There could be 0-3 mafia on this list. I guess we could look to Conan(s) to figure it out...
This all assumes that if a watcher watches a tracked ninja, they don't see a tracker. Could be easier otherwise.
I asked flamewheel:
" hey so if a watcher watches a tracked ninja, do they see a tracker?"
I haven't received a response yet.
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On August 07 2010 10:57 Pandain wrote:
Pandain's 1st Refinement of his plan:
So I was making this whole complicated thing about my plan, when I thought of something. Here's my thoughts.........
Watccher and tracker visit BM
Night hit will tell us whether they are mafia, since tracker will know about mafia.
If mafia: Tracker and watcher gather up, two medics protect both of them. We lynch a certain mafia.
Have town circle also. Possible mass roleclaim?
If blue: We have a circle of 3 blues, perfect eh?
Thoughts?
Mmm juicy enough that I may let BM live to see his precious nightfall.
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On August 07 2010 11:02 Divinek wrote:Show nested quote +On August 07 2010 10:57 Pandain wrote:
Pandain's 1st Refinement of his plan:
So I was making this whole complicated thing about my plan, when I thought of something. Here's my thoughts.........
Watccher and tracker visit BM
Night hit will tell us whether they are mafia, since tracker will know about mafia.
If mafia: Tracker and watcher gather up, two medics protect both of them. We lynch a certain mafia.
Have town circle also. Possible mass roleclaim?
If blue: We have a circle of 3 blues, perfect eh?
Thoughts? yeah that sounds fine, it's a good way to clear someone as well. Since they will find each other, and both of the meds can protect BM and the DT can investigate him cant all blues with abilities like this find each other simply by all going to one player while a watcher/tracker is there?
Hmm so some possible probs - what if BM is mafia and first mafia hit hits a protted person so they don't die? Or hits a vet? Survivor of hit will have to claim in this scenario.
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On August 07 2010 11:15 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On August 07 2010 10:57 Pandain wrote:
Pandain's 1st Refinement of his plan:
So I was making this whole complicated thing about my plan, when I thought of something. Here's my thoughts.........
Watccher and tracker visit BM
Night hit will tell us whether they are mafia, since tracker will know about mafia.
If mafia: Tracker and watcher gather up, two medics protect both of them. We lynch a certain mafia.
Have town circle also. Possible mass roleclaim?
If blue: We have a circle of 3 blues, perfect eh?
Thoughts? Okay here's how I see the plan. The Watcher is the 'medic' making sure that BM does not get hit. Also he's there to find who the tracker is. The tracker is there to make sure BM is not mafia. Main problem, what if BM is the Godfather? he can't be tracked. Probability low, but with people screaming "BM is Godfather!" I'd pick someone else. Second problem, what if the mafia sends a framer to BM? Well, we lynch both the tracker and the framer. VERY good for us. The framer could cause lots of problems Offshoot of second problem. What if the Innocent Stalker visits BM? We lynch both, and we lose an Innocent stalker and the Tracker Curve Balls: Ninja kills BM. We'd kill the tracker. NVM, ninja accomplishes nothing I'll think more on this situation. But Pandain, it's better than anything I can think of myself. Assuming totally random odds, and also only 1 innocent stalker, there is a 93.44% chance of succeeding.
The Godfather cannot be tracked. Yeah BM dies today, then. We can make Foolishness THIS GUY if BM flips red.
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On August 07 2010 11:20 Divinek wrote:
also remember if tracker doesnt get anything from bm that either means he's town, gf, or ninja. But we should know the ninja thing cause no one will get anything, though the only way we know if these people got nothing is if they publically claim, so maybe we should have someone to do this for on day 2 as well so they dont have to publically tell us? Even though the odds are low
(at least i think if you track gf you dont get the info tracker normally would get)
so he doesnt have to be cleared, i think
If tracker gets nothing, he could also be vet, I think. Or blue stubbornly not using his action/
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On August 07 2010 11:29 Divinek wrote:Show nested quote +On August 07 2010 11:27 SouthRawrea wrote:
I would just like to say Pyrr is most likely not GF because if BM flips town-sided which he would if Pyrr was RED, then Pyrr would most likely assume he himself would become THIS GUY. It would eventually be outted that he was ninja/godfather. Ninjas double stack hits on him. Lights out for him. Town wouldn't be able to prove he was ninja instead of GF with a DT check or anything in fact as he has no need to be the one doing the killing. (He could just vote: No kill) The same would apply for any RED as he would get checked by DT almost immediately probably. Thus we can just fastforward this and lynch BM and make Pyrr THIS GUY. your logical reasoning is astounding there are no words for the stuff that comes out of your mouth really
It's true. He seems to be on my side but he does not make sense to me.
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On August 07 2010 11:29 SouthRawrea wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2010 13:12 flamewheel wrote:
Boy Scout (Medic)
Each Boy Scout, being still as of yet not of legal age, can only stop one hit and as such if the number of Brigade members is greater than the number of Boy Scouts on a player then that player will die. You will know if you saved the person.
Show nested quote +On August 07 2010 11:21 LSB wrote:On August 07 2010 11:18 SouthRawrea wrote:
Also would like to mention we have multiple, stackable medics. Do we? We have people who can be used as 'medics' Watchers, Bus Drivers, Medics. But possibly only 1 medic Why would flame mention this if there were only 1?
To make sure we can't be sure of how many there are?
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On August 07 2010 11:32 Pandain wrote:Still, as of right now I think my plan is basically 100% foolproof. The only real thing that can mess this up is if a nosy neighbor comes in, and that's 1/30 chance. So right now, this is the best thing we've got. So I highly urge all of you to unvote Bill Murray this instant. Right now, yes, right now. Don't keep reading this, go right now and do it. + Show Spoiler +Why haven't you done it yet?
Because I think he's red and if he flips red we can try the same thing with someone else. If he survives this lynch he can take the GF role and claim vet and put himself on vet and your plan can't help us determine whether he is a real vet or fake vet.
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On August 07 2010 11:37 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On August 07 2010 11:36 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:On August 07 2010 11:32 Pandain wrote:Still, as of right now I think my plan is basically 100% foolproof. The only real thing that can mess this up is if a nosy neighbor comes in, and that's 1/30 chance. So right now, this is the best thing we've got. So I highly urge all of you to unvote Bill Murray this instant. Right now, yes, right now. Don't keep reading this, go right now and do it. + Show Spoiler +Why haven't you done it yet? Because I think he's red and if he flips red we can try the same thing with someone else. If he survives this lynch he can take the GF role and claim vet and put himself on vet and your plan can't help us determine whether he is a real vet or fake vet. just because you THINK he's red doesn't mean that's good enough of a reason to jeopardize a plan which could result in possibly two red's being captured or a 3way blue circle. Please, unvote him right now.
? I just explained how if he is red than your plan is useless. This also means that if he is a blue role that doesn't visit, your plan is useless. Your plan can be done with a lot of different people; it doesn't have to be BM. Your plan made sense till LSB pointed out that Godfather cannot be tracked. Then it got a lot more iffy and I want to go after the highly likely red as fast as possible.
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Maybe your plan isn't useless in the previous mentioned situations; it would be more accurate to say that it doesn't get any better by using BM and it could get much worse by using BM.
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On August 07 2010 11:42 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On August 07 2010 11:41 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:On August 07 2010 11:37 Pandain wrote:On August 07 2010 11:36 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:On August 07 2010 11:32 Pandain wrote:Still, as of right now I think my plan is basically 100% foolproof. The only real thing that can mess this up is if a nosy neighbor comes in, and that's 1/30 chance. So right now, this is the best thing we've got. So I highly urge all of you to unvote Bill Murray this instant. Right now, yes, right now. Don't keep reading this, go right now and do it. + Show Spoiler +Why haven't you done it yet? Because I think he's red and if he flips red we can try the same thing with someone else. If he survives this lynch he can take the GF role and claim vet and put himself on vet and your plan can't help us determine whether he is a real vet or fake vet. just because you THINK he's red doesn't mean that's good enough of a reason to jeopardize a plan which could result in possibly two red's being captured or a 3way blue circle. Please, unvote him right now. ? I just explained how if he is red than your plan is useless. This also means that if he is a blue role that doesn't visit, your plan is useless. Your plan can be done with a lot of different people; it doesn't have to be BM. Your plan made sense till LSB pointed out that Godfather cannot be tracked. Then it got a lot more iffy and I want to go after the highly likely red as fast as possible. If godfather cannot be tracked, than we know he is GF and lynch him. WE got a certain GF than. Otherwise, without that knowledge there is just as great a chance you are lynching a blue. Plus, my plan revolves around BM claiming blue. Without him, than we still won't have a circle if mafia fakes as a tracker.
GF cannot be tracked. Townie cannot be tracked. Veteran cannot be tracked. GF can appear as veteran or townie if desired. BM has already lied a few times this game. If he changes his claim to townie, would anyone care? He can also say he is a vigi and didn't want to waste his hit during the first night and use a real hit or mafia kp hit to claim later.
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On August 07 2010 11:44 chaoser wrote:Show nested quote +On August 07 2010 11:41 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:On August 07 2010 11:37 Pandain wrote:On August 07 2010 11:36 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:On August 07 2010 11:32 Pandain wrote:Still, as of right now I think my plan is basically 100% foolproof. The only real thing that can mess this up is if a nosy neighbor comes in, and that's 1/30 chance. So right now, this is the best thing we've got. So I highly urge all of you to unvote Bill Murray this instant. Right now, yes, right now. Don't keep reading this, go right now and do it. + Show Spoiler +Why haven't you done it yet? Because I think he's red and if he flips red we can try the same thing with someone else. If he survives this lynch he can take the GF role and claim vet and put himself on vet and your plan can't help us determine whether he is a real vet or fake vet. just because you THINK he's red doesn't mean that's good enough of a reason to jeopardize a plan which could result in possibly two red's being captured or a 3way blue circle. Please, unvote him right now. ? I just explained how if he is red than your plan is useless. This also means that if he is a blue role that doesn't visit, your plan is useless. Your plan can be done with a lot of different people; it doesn't have to be BM. Your plan made sense till LSB pointed out that Godfather cannot be tracked. Then it got a lot more iffy and I want to go after the highly likely red as fast as possible. Why did it get more iffy if GF can't be tracked? The watcher will still see the tracker visit and the mafia would have to waste a roleblocker/framer and do it on their own GF so that it's not just one person visiting.
If the GF could be tracked, Pandain's plan would be awesome. We would look at the kill list, and if the first hit went through, it would match what the tracker saw BM do. So then we would just have to worry about our own medics or other blues blocking the first hit. Mafia would have to consider not hitting at all, just to save BM. Either way awesome for us.
But GF can't be tracked. So if BM is mafia and doesn't get lynched, mafia will select him as GF for sure. This makes him indistinguishable from a real veteran if he choosed the veteran, since veterans can't be tracked either. He could also fake vigi, or really any role and just not use a power. So we couldn't get a circle of 3 for-sure blues out of the deal, we might risk people jumping the gun and claiming to BM.
I don't see why BM is any better for THIS GUY than anyone else. Since I think he is red, I thought it would be awesome to track him, but if he's red they will just make him GF so its no better than any other pick. So I'd rather just lynch the guy I think is red and see what happens from there since we probably won't need a complicated blue plan if he's red, we will be in such good shape.
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On August 07 2010 11:52 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On August 07 2010 11:48 chaoser wrote:
vets can't visit anyone else so i guess they can't be tracked? agreed, then it reverts back to its "no mafia interference plan" where we have two confirmed blues. So perhaps we should have in that scenario the watcher and tracker come out in open. Than everyone RC(since they are clean.) Than we can hunt down the vets. Would be worth it if we get a GF. Very worth it. In addition, in the HIGHLY unlikely scenario that he IS GF, than he will still get caught as stated above.
If he is red, he is guaranteed to be GF since they don't have to select GF till the end of the day and they read this thread.
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On August 07 2010 11:55 Divinek wrote:Show nested quote +On August 07 2010 11:48 chaoser wrote:On August 07 2010 11:46 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:On August 07 2010 11:42 Pandain wrote:On August 07 2010 11:41 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:On August 07 2010 11:37 Pandain wrote:On August 07 2010 11:36 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:On August 07 2010 11:32 Pandain wrote:Still, as of right now I think my plan is basically 100% foolproof. The only real thing that can mess this up is if a nosy neighbor comes in, and that's 1/30 chance. So right now, this is the best thing we've got. So I highly urge all of you to unvote Bill Murray this instant. Right now, yes, right now. Don't keep reading this, go right now and do it. + Show Spoiler +Why haven't you done it yet? Because I think he's red and if he flips red we can try the same thing with someone else. If he survives this lynch he can take the GF role and claim vet and put himself on vet and your plan can't help us determine whether he is a real vet or fake vet. just because you THINK he's red doesn't mean that's good enough of a reason to jeopardize a plan which could result in possibly two red's being captured or a 3way blue circle. Please, unvote him right now. ? I just explained how if he is red than your plan is useless. This also means that if he is a blue role that doesn't visit, your plan is useless. Your plan can be done with a lot of different people; it doesn't have to be BM. Your plan made sense till LSB pointed out that Godfather cannot be tracked. Then it got a lot more iffy and I want to go after the highly likely red as fast as possible. If godfather cannot be tracked, than we know he is GF and lynch him. WE got a certain GF than. Otherwise, without that knowledge there is just as great a chance you are lynching a blue. Plus, my plan revolves around BM claiming blue. Without him, than we still won't have a circle if mafia fakes as a tracker. GF cannot be tracked. Townie cannot be tracked. Veteran cannot be tracked. GF can appear as veteran or townie if desired. BM has already lied a few times this game. If he changes his claim to townie, would anyone care? He can also say he is a vigi and didn't want to waste his hit during the first night and use a real hit or mafia kp hit to claim later. even if they can't be tracked, watcher still sees tracker and if it's just the two then it's all gravy the thing is i think pyrr wants to push for bm's lynch and if he's our target for this then he cant really do that. which is understandable so it'd be perfectly reasonable to switch it to someone who we know we dont really want to lynch on day 1. Because while i doubt bm is going to get lynched it'd still be nice to leave him open to the possibility i mean we could like do it on someone like me or pandain, or uh i dunno you? someone who probably would never get GF because then we KNOW that person isnt mafia because the only way a tracked person isnt mafia is if they are the GF because even if you track a mafia member and they hit a medic or something "If you track Mafia, then you will be led to the scene of the first target on the Mafia hitlist." you're still led to a scene so you know exactly what happened and what the person you are tracking is this all depends on the fact that mafia havent already chosen their gf and if there is any cut off for doing so, other wise bm is as good as anyone else really unless we really want him to die
Rules say mafia don't have to decide GF until end of day 1. I think we should wait until Day 1 ends and choose a target right at the start of Night 1, so blue roles have time to see and follow the plan. And we should just choose one of the inactive peeps at random, since the chance of them being GF is awful low. A tracker looking at a low-level player will probably see them go after someone on the hitlist if they are mafia since such a player would probably not be GF. This seems a much more safe use of Pandain's plan than BM.
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On August 07 2010 11:58 SouthRawrea wrote:
Oh really? You think Pyrr is NOT ninja after what he said? BTW replace Bill Murray in my posts with whoever is going to get lynched.
You think I'm ninja because I think there are 3 ninjas and because I claimed to be a ninja vigi fake-batman townie medic? Whatever, man. Enjoy the astral plane and bring me back some nirvana.
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On August 07 2010 12:03 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On August 07 2010 11:59 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:On August 07 2010 11:55 Divinek wrote:On August 07 2010 11:48 chaoser wrote:On August 07 2010 11:46 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:On August 07 2010 11:42 Pandain wrote:On August 07 2010 11:41 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:On August 07 2010 11:37 Pandain wrote:On August 07 2010 11:36 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:On August 07 2010 11:32 Pandain wrote:Still, as of right now I think my plan is basically 100% foolproof. The only real thing that can mess this up is if a nosy neighbor comes in, and that's 1/30 chance. So right now, this is the best thing we've got. So I highly urge all of you to unvote Bill Murray this instant. Right now, yes, right now. Don't keep reading this, go right now and do it. + Show Spoiler +Why haven't you done it yet? Because I think he's red and if he flips red we can try the same thing with someone else. If he survives this lynch he can take the GF role and claim vet and put himself on vet and your plan can't help us determine whether he is a real vet or fake vet. just because you THINK he's red doesn't mean that's good enough of a reason to jeopardize a plan which could result in possibly two red's being captured or a 3way blue circle. Please, unvote him right now. ? I just explained how if he is red than your plan is useless. This also means that if he is a blue role that doesn't visit, your plan is useless. Your plan can be done with a lot of different people; it doesn't have to be BM. Your plan made sense till LSB pointed out that Godfather cannot be tracked. Then it got a lot more iffy and I want to go after the highly likely red as fast as possible. If godfather cannot be tracked, than we know he is GF and lynch him. WE got a certain GF than. Otherwise, without that knowledge there is just as great a chance you are lynching a blue. Plus, my plan revolves around BM claiming blue. Without him, than we still won't have a circle if mafia fakes as a tracker. GF cannot be tracked. Townie cannot be tracked. Veteran cannot be tracked. GF can appear as veteran or townie if desired. BM has already lied a few times this game. If he changes his claim to townie, would anyone care? He can also say he is a vigi and didn't want to waste his hit during the first night and use a real hit or mafia kp hit to claim later. even if they can't be tracked, watcher still sees tracker and if it's just the two then it's all gravy the thing is i think pyrr wants to push for bm's lynch and if he's our target for this then he cant really do that. which is understandable so it'd be perfectly reasonable to switch it to someone who we know we dont really want to lynch on day 1. Because while i doubt bm is going to get lynched it'd still be nice to leave him open to the possibility i mean we could like do it on someone like me or pandain, or uh i dunno you? someone who probably would never get GF because then we KNOW that person isnt mafia because the only way a tracked person isnt mafia is if they are the GF because even if you track a mafia member and they hit a medic or something "If you track Mafia, then you will be led to the scene of the first target on the Mafia hitlist." you're still led to a scene so you know exactly what happened and what the person you are tracking is this all depends on the fact that mafia havent already chosen their gf and if there is any cut off for doing so, other wise bm is as good as anyone else really unless we really want him to die Rules say mafia don't have to decide GF until end of day 1. I think we should wait until Day 1 ends and choose a target right at the start of Night 1, so blue roles have time to see and follow the plan. And we should just choose one of the inactive peeps at random, since the chance of them being GF is awful low. A tracker looking at a low-level player will probably see them go after someone on the hitlist if they are mafia since such a player would probably not be GF. This seems a much more safe use of Pandain's plan than BM. If he can't be tracked, than we go after vets and we get a GF. Everyone will mass roleclaim to watcher and tracker and from there we can find out who's who hopefully. Also, I think in nearly every one of my scenarios we either get 1. Two confirmed reds 2. One confirmed 3. Hidden GF in vets Either way, we will need a double lynch. I am voting for double lynch and urge others to do so. In which case
Everyone can claim to watcher and tracker if the plan goes well regardless of whether or not BM is involved. Choosing someone high-profile like BM just makes it more likely that it will get fucked with.
If BM is GF, Your plan is to kill off everyone that claims vet, after forcing all vets to claim? Whether BM is GF or real vet that plan sucks.
I'll vote double lynch tomorrow if BM flips red. Otherwise I don't know who to go after and I don't think we will tomorrow. Day 2 double lynch is usually bad for town - I don't think this game is different. If I knew BM would be lynched today I'd vote double lynch but this is still up in the air.
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On August 07 2010 12:03 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On August 07 2010 11:52 Pandain wrote:On August 07 2010 11:48 chaoser wrote:
vets can't visit anyone else so i guess they can't be tracked? agreed, then it reverts back to its "no mafia interference plan" where we have two confirmed blues. So perhaps we should have in that scenario the watcher and tracker come out in open. Than everyone RC(since they are clean.) Than we can hunt down the vets. Would be worth it if we get a GF. Very worth it. In addition, in the HIGHLY unlikely scenario that he IS GF, than he will still get caught as stated above. Okay I agree with Pandain now. Here's the statistical breakdown. Probability that BM is Godfather/Ninja. I'm assuming 3 ninja's and Pyrr is a Ninja 27/30= 90% So 90% is the initial success rate. But what if more than one person visits BM? Let's say 2 people visits BM It could be 2 Stalkers, 1 Stalker and 1 Innocent Stalker, 1 Stalker and a random Mafia person. This could be trouble, the random Mafia person could attempt to vouch for BM. But the watcher can't just Post everyone who visited BM, because we could then just lose 2 stalker, the watchers, and BM. 4 people dead The probability of an Innocent stalker visiting BM is 28/29=96.55%
Well, I'm not ninja. There could be 7 ninjas for all we know. Probability of BM becoming godfather tonight if he doesn't get lynched and is mafia is 100% and only 23/30 players are not mafia.
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EPT
