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TL Mafia XXX - Page 29

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LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
August 07 2010 03:03 GMT
#561
On August 07 2010 11:52 Pandain wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 07 2010 11:48 chaoser wrote:
vets can't visit anyone else so i guess they can't be tracked?

agreed, then it reverts back to its "no mafia interference plan" where we have two confirmed blues. So perhaps we should have in that scenario the watcher and tracker come out in open. Than everyone RC(since they are clean.) Than we can hunt down the vets. Would be worth it if we get a GF. Very worth it.

In addition, in the HIGHLY unlikely scenario that he IS GF, than he will still get caught as stated above.

Okay I agree with Pandain now.

Here's the statistical breakdown.

Probability that BM is Godfather/Ninja.
I'm assuming 3 ninja's and Pyrr is a Ninja
27/30= 90%

So 90% is the initial success rate.

But what if more than one person visits BM? Let's say 2 people visits BM
It could be 2 Stalkers, 1 Stalker and 1 Innocent Stalker, 1 Stalker and a random Mafia person.
This could be trouble, the random Mafia person could attempt to vouch for BM. But the watcher can't just Post everyone who visited BM, because we could then just lose 2 stalker, the watchers, and BM. 4 people dead

The probability of an Innocent stalker visiting BM is 28/29=96.55%
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
August 07 2010 03:03 GMT
#562
On August 07 2010 11:59 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 07 2010 11:55 Divinek wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:48 chaoser wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:46 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:42 Pandain wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:41 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:37 Pandain wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:36 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:32 Pandain wrote:
Still, as of right now I think my plan is basically 100% foolproof. The only real thing that can mess this up is if a nosy neighbor comes in, and that's 1/30 chance. So right now, this is the best thing we've got.

So I highly urge all of you to unvote Bill Murray this instant. Right now, yes, right now. Don't keep reading this, go right now and do it.
+ Show Spoiler +
Why haven't you done it yet?

Because I think he's red and if he flips red we can try the same thing with someone else. If he survives this lynch he can take the GF role and claim vet and put himself on vet and your plan can't help us determine whether he is a real vet or fake vet.


just because you THINK he's red doesn't mean that's good enough of a reason to jeopardize a plan which could result in possibly two red's being captured or a 3way blue circle. Please, unvote him right now.

? I just explained how if he is red than your plan is useless. This also means that if he is a blue role that doesn't visit, your plan is useless. Your plan can be done with a lot of different people; it doesn't have to be BM. Your plan made sense till LSB pointed out that Godfather cannot be tracked. Then it got a lot more iffy and I want to go after the highly likely red as fast as possible.


If godfather cannot be tracked, than we know he is GF and lynch him. WE got a certain GF than.
Otherwise, without that knowledge there is just as great a chance you are lynching a blue. Plus, my plan revolves around BM claiming blue. Without him, than we still won't have a circle if mafia fakes as a tracker.

GF cannot be tracked. Townie cannot be tracked. Veteran cannot be tracked. GF can appear as veteran or townie if desired. BM has already lied a few times this game. If he changes his claim to townie, would anyone care? He can also say he is a vigi and didn't want to waste his hit during the first night and use a real hit or mafia kp hit to claim later.


even if they can't be tracked, watcher still sees tracker and if it's just the two then it's all gravy


the thing is i think pyrr wants to push for bm's lynch and if he's our target for this then he cant really do that. which is understandable

so it'd be perfectly reasonable to switch it to someone who we know we dont really want to lynch on day 1. Because while i doubt bm is going to get lynched it'd still be nice to leave him open to the possibility

i mean we could like do it on someone like me or pandain, or uh i dunno you? someone who probably would never get GF because then we KNOW that person isnt mafia

because the only way a tracked person isnt mafia is if they are the GF

because even if you track a mafia member and they hit a medic or something

"If you track Mafia, then you will be led to the scene of the first target on the Mafia hitlist."

you're still led to a scene so you know exactly what happened and what the person you are tracking is

this all depends on the fact that mafia havent already chosen their gf and if there is any cut off for doing so, other wise bm is as good as anyone else really unless we really want him to die

Rules say mafia don't have to decide GF until end of day 1. I think we should wait until Day 1 ends and choose a target right at the start of Night 1, so blue roles have time to see and follow the plan. And we should just choose one of the inactive peeps at random, since the chance of them being GF is awful low. A tracker looking at a low-level player will probably see them go after someone on the hitlist if they are mafia since such a player would probably not be GF. This seems a much more safe use of Pandain's plan than BM.


If he can't be tracked, than we go after vets and we get a GF. Everyone will mass roleclaim to watcher and tracker and from there we can find out who's who hopefully.
Also, I think in nearly every one of my scenarios we either get
1. Two confirmed reds
2. One confirmed
3. Hidden GF in vets
Either way, we will need a double lynch. I am voting for double lynch and urge others to do so.
In which case
Divinek
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
Canada4045 Posts
August 07 2010 03:03 GMT
#563
On August 07 2010 12:00 Pandain wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 07 2010 11:58 SouthRawrea wrote:
Oh really? You think Pyrr is NOT ninja after what he said? BTW replace Bill Murray in my posts with whoever is going to get lynched.


It'll be easy to see if Pyrr is ninja or not based on whether he dies or not. If he was right about the number, ninjas will kill him. If he lives, than he's wrong. From there we can also speculate about whether there would be 2 or 4 ninjas. I'm thinkin 4 since I doubt flamwheel would only have 2 ninjas. Would seem lame :/



no fucking way a ninja is going to throw a blind chop stick at him night one

im pretty sure they'd much rather just check him and be sure, because then they 100% get their chop stick back

but i do not believe he is a ninja solely based on what he has said
Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
Oh goodness me, FOX tv where do you get your sight? Can't you keep track, the puck is black. That's why the ice is white.
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
August 07 2010 03:04 GMT
#564
On August 07 2010 11:58 SouthRawrea wrote:
Oh really? You think Pyrr is NOT ninja after what he said? BTW replace Bill Murray in my posts with whoever is going to get lynched.

You think I'm ninja because I think there are 3 ninjas and because I claimed to be a ninja vigi fake-batman townie medic? Whatever, man. Enjoy the astral plane and bring me back some nirvana.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
August 07 2010 03:04 GMT
#565
On August 07 2010 12:00 larjarse wrote:
Divinek saying I spam spam spam on pg 23:

This is my first game. You also excluded my posts that had content. So vote me if you please and calm down your e rage, bro.


I voted BM becauese I instinctively feel like he's up to no good. If he's actually good, then oh well, it was a 1/6 chance anyways and it's only the first day. Many can sit here and theroize why people posted what and everthing, but you probably aren't going to know who anyone is today.

Pyrrhuloxia United States. August 07 2010 10:12.
I think we should be suspicious of people who defend others so early..


I agree!


Divinek again targeting me on pg 25: speaking of which lets have a look at some inactive or people that have posted basically nothing thus far 1)lasjarles(or whatever) !!!


Show nested quote +
On August 07 2010 11:20 Divinek wrote:
also remember if tracker doesnt get anything from bm that either means he's town, gf, or ninja. But we should know the ninja thing cause no one will get anything, though the only way we know if these people got nothing is if they publically claim, so maybe we should have someone to do this for on day 2 as well so they dont have to publically tell us? Even though the odds are low
(at least i think if you track gf you dont get the info tracker normally would get)

so he doesnt have to be cleared, i think


And the roleblocker/framer can change the entire story. Divinek seems sure that BM is going to be watched tonight and is posting his expected results to further defend BM and thus fuck over the town if he is actually scum.

Show nested quote +
On August 07 2010 11:46 Divinek wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:42 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
Maybe your plan isn't useless in the previous mentioned situations; it would be more accurate to say that it doesn't get any better by using BM and it could get much worse by using BM.


i agree

id much rather lynch him or one of the inactives and use the watcher/tracker thing on someone else



So lets lynch him, and see what happens.

Reading more bickering yadda yadda.. Okay lets just lynch BM and see what happens. Okey? Ok. Then maybe DivineK.


Hey negative attitude for what we can accomplish for day 1. Seems like someone is trying to get NOTHING done. Also quick to agree with Pyrr right after saying that we shouldn't be theorizing about what people say. Pyrr just said we should be suspicious of people based on who they defend WHICH IS THEORIZING ABOUT WHAT PEOPLE SAY. (Oh burn) Also pushing the suspicion on you to other people doesn't help as we're suspicious of them anyways.
Finally Div is sure that BM is getting checked because he's following along with Pandain's plan.
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
August 07 2010 03:07 GMT
#566
On August 07 2010 12:03 Pandain wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 07 2010 11:59 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:55 Divinek wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:48 chaoser wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:46 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:42 Pandain wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:41 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:37 Pandain wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:36 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:32 Pandain wrote:
Still, as of right now I think my plan is basically 100% foolproof. The only real thing that can mess this up is if a nosy neighbor comes in, and that's 1/30 chance. So right now, this is the best thing we've got.

So I highly urge all of you to unvote Bill Murray this instant. Right now, yes, right now. Don't keep reading this, go right now and do it.
+ Show Spoiler +
Why haven't you done it yet?

Because I think he's red and if he flips red we can try the same thing with someone else. If he survives this lynch he can take the GF role and claim vet and put himself on vet and your plan can't help us determine whether he is a real vet or fake vet.


just because you THINK he's red doesn't mean that's good enough of a reason to jeopardize a plan which could result in possibly two red's being captured or a 3way blue circle. Please, unvote him right now.

? I just explained how if he is red than your plan is useless. This also means that if he is a blue role that doesn't visit, your plan is useless. Your plan can be done with a lot of different people; it doesn't have to be BM. Your plan made sense till LSB pointed out that Godfather cannot be tracked. Then it got a lot more iffy and I want to go after the highly likely red as fast as possible.


If godfather cannot be tracked, than we know he is GF and lynch him. WE got a certain GF than.
Otherwise, without that knowledge there is just as great a chance you are lynching a blue. Plus, my plan revolves around BM claiming blue. Without him, than we still won't have a circle if mafia fakes as a tracker.

GF cannot be tracked. Townie cannot be tracked. Veteran cannot be tracked. GF can appear as veteran or townie if desired. BM has already lied a few times this game. If he changes his claim to townie, would anyone care? He can also say he is a vigi and didn't want to waste his hit during the first night and use a real hit or mafia kp hit to claim later.


even if they can't be tracked, watcher still sees tracker and if it's just the two then it's all gravy


the thing is i think pyrr wants to push for bm's lynch and if he's our target for this then he cant really do that. which is understandable

so it'd be perfectly reasonable to switch it to someone who we know we dont really want to lynch on day 1. Because while i doubt bm is going to get lynched it'd still be nice to leave him open to the possibility

i mean we could like do it on someone like me or pandain, or uh i dunno you? someone who probably would never get GF because then we KNOW that person isnt mafia

because the only way a tracked person isnt mafia is if they are the GF

because even if you track a mafia member and they hit a medic or something

"If you track Mafia, then you will be led to the scene of the first target on the Mafia hitlist."

you're still led to a scene so you know exactly what happened and what the person you are tracking is

this all depends on the fact that mafia havent already chosen their gf and if there is any cut off for doing so, other wise bm is as good as anyone else really unless we really want him to die

Rules say mafia don't have to decide GF until end of day 1. I think we should wait until Day 1 ends and choose a target right at the start of Night 1, so blue roles have time to see and follow the plan. And we should just choose one of the inactive peeps at random, since the chance of them being GF is awful low. A tracker looking at a low-level player will probably see them go after someone on the hitlist if they are mafia since such a player would probably not be GF. This seems a much more safe use of Pandain's plan than BM.


If he can't be tracked, than we go after vets and we get a GF. Everyone will mass roleclaim to watcher and tracker and from there we can find out who's who hopefully.
Also, I think in nearly every one of my scenarios we either get
1. Two confirmed reds
2. One confirmed
3. Hidden GF in vets
Either way, we will need a double lynch. I am voting for double lynch and urge others to do so.
In which case

Everyone can claim to watcher and tracker if the plan goes well regardless of whether or not BM is involved. Choosing someone high-profile like BM just makes it more likely that it will get fucked with.
If BM is GF, Your plan is to kill off everyone that claims vet, after forcing all vets to claim? Whether BM is GF or real vet that plan sucks.
I'll vote double lynch tomorrow if BM flips red. Otherwise I don't know who to go after and I don't think we will tomorrow. Day 2 double lynch is usually bad for town - I don't think this game is different. If I knew BM would be lynched today I'd vote double lynch but this is still up in the air.
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
August 07 2010 03:08 GMT
#567
Before I go to sleep.

What about this?

Watcher watches BM. Everyone else makes a beeline and random medics / Vigilanties / Stalkers go visit BM.

The Watcher then proceeds to PM everyone who visited BM and demands a Role Claim.
If someone pretends to be watcher, he'll probably make a mistake and won't send a PM to the right person, and then easy expose.

After a while, if the people who visited BM confirm that the Watcher is correct. The Watcher PMs everyone else who did not visit BM and demands a roleclaim

So we basically get 1 person who is confirmed.
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
August 07 2010 03:08 GMT
#568
On August 07 2010 12:04 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 07 2010 11:58 SouthRawrea wrote:
Oh really? You think Pyrr is NOT ninja after what he said? BTW replace Bill Murray in my posts with whoever is going to get lynched.

You think I'm ninja because I think there are 3 ninjas and because I claimed to be a ninja vigi fake-batman townie medic? Whatever, man. Enjoy the astral plane and bring me back some nirvana.



Well usually you'd theorize about the number of ninjas without outright saying there are 3 would you n ot? This is coming from the guy who said this when speaking of the medic count and Flamewheel's wording.
On August 07 2010 11:34 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
To make sure we can't be sure of how many there are?


So you know that flamewheel could be trying to be ambiguous about the number of people of each role yet you somehow chose 3 instead of perhaps 1.
Divinek
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
Canada4045 Posts
August 07 2010 03:09 GMT
#569
On August 07 2010 12:08 LSB wrote:
Before I go to sleep.

What about this?

Watcher watches BM. Everyone else makes a beeline and random medics / Vigilanties / Stalkers go visit BM.

The Watcher then proceeds to PM everyone who visited BM and demands a Role Claim.
If someone pretends to be watcher, he'll probably make a mistake and won't send a PM to the right person, and then easy expose.

After a while, if the people who visited BM confirm that the Watcher is correct. The Watcher PMs everyone else who did not visit BM and demands a roleclaim

So we basically get 1 person who is confirmed.


nope that doesnt work cause roleblocker can get all that info if he pms everyone and then mafia have huge list of ez blue targets.
Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
Oh goodness me, FOX tv where do you get your sight? Can't you keep track, the puck is black. That's why the ice is white.
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
August 07 2010 03:09 GMT
#570
On August 07 2010 12:07 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 07 2010 12:03 Pandain wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:59 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:55 Divinek wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:48 chaoser wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:46 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:42 Pandain wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:41 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:37 Pandain wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:36 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
[quote]
Because I think he's red and if he flips red we can try the same thing with someone else. If he survives this lynch he can take the GF role and claim vet and put himself on vet and your plan can't help us determine whether he is a real vet or fake vet.


just because you THINK he's red doesn't mean that's good enough of a reason to jeopardize a plan which could result in possibly two red's being captured or a 3way blue circle. Please, unvote him right now.

? I just explained how if he is red than your plan is useless. This also means that if he is a blue role that doesn't visit, your plan is useless. Your plan can be done with a lot of different people; it doesn't have to be BM. Your plan made sense till LSB pointed out that Godfather cannot be tracked. Then it got a lot more iffy and I want to go after the highly likely red as fast as possible.


If godfather cannot be tracked, than we know he is GF and lynch him. WE got a certain GF than.
Otherwise, without that knowledge there is just as great a chance you are lynching a blue. Plus, my plan revolves around BM claiming blue. Without him, than we still won't have a circle if mafia fakes as a tracker.

GF cannot be tracked. Townie cannot be tracked. Veteran cannot be tracked. GF can appear as veteran or townie if desired. BM has already lied a few times this game. If he changes his claim to townie, would anyone care? He can also say he is a vigi and didn't want to waste his hit during the first night and use a real hit or mafia kp hit to claim later.


even if they can't be tracked, watcher still sees tracker and if it's just the two then it's all gravy


the thing is i think pyrr wants to push for bm's lynch and if he's our target for this then he cant really do that. which is understandable

so it'd be perfectly reasonable to switch it to someone who we know we dont really want to lynch on day 1. Because while i doubt bm is going to get lynched it'd still be nice to leave him open to the possibility

i mean we could like do it on someone like me or pandain, or uh i dunno you? someone who probably would never get GF because then we KNOW that person isnt mafia

because the only way a tracked person isnt mafia is if they are the GF

because even if you track a mafia member and they hit a medic or something

"If you track Mafia, then you will be led to the scene of the first target on the Mafia hitlist."

you're still led to a scene so you know exactly what happened and what the person you are tracking is

this all depends on the fact that mafia havent already chosen their gf and if there is any cut off for doing so, other wise bm is as good as anyone else really unless we really want him to die

Rules say mafia don't have to decide GF until end of day 1. I think we should wait until Day 1 ends and choose a target right at the start of Night 1, so blue roles have time to see and follow the plan. And we should just choose one of the inactive peeps at random, since the chance of them being GF is awful low. A tracker looking at a low-level player will probably see them go after someone on the hitlist if they are mafia since such a player would probably not be GF. This seems a much more safe use of Pandain's plan than BM.


If he can't be tracked, than we go after vets and we get a GF. Everyone will mass roleclaim to watcher and tracker and from there we can find out who's who hopefully.
Also, I think in nearly every one of my scenarios we either get
1. Two confirmed reds
2. One confirmed
3. Hidden GF in vets
Either way, we will need a double lynch. I am voting for double lynch and urge others to do so.
In which case

Everyone can claim to watcher and tracker if the plan goes well regardless of whether or not BM is involved. Choosing someone high-profile like BM just makes it more likely that it will get fucked with.
If BM is GF, Your plan is to kill off everyone that claims vet, after forcing all vets to claim? Whether BM is GF or real vet that plan sucks.
I'll vote double lynch tomorrow if BM flips red. Otherwise I don't know who to go after and I don't think we will tomorrow. Day 2 double lynch is usually bad for town - I don't think this game is different. If I knew BM would be lynched today I'd vote double lynch but this is still up in the air.


Hmmm... hunting down the vets will be risky I agree.
At the same time, once we kill the godfather, things will become much easier for us.
I need to think about this. I've been blind to certain aspects and must think and reflect.
Divinek
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
Canada4045 Posts
August 07 2010 03:10 GMT
#571
On August 07 2010 12:08 SouthRawrea wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 07 2010 12:04 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:58 SouthRawrea wrote:
Oh really? You think Pyrr is NOT ninja after what he said? BTW replace Bill Murray in my posts with whoever is going to get lynched.

You think I'm ninja because I think there are 3 ninjas and because I claimed to be a ninja vigi fake-batman townie medic? Whatever, man. Enjoy the astral plane and bring me back some nirvana.



Well usually you'd theorize about the number of ninjas without outright saying there are 3 would you n ot? This is coming from the guy who said this when speaking of the medic count and Flamewheel's wording.
Show nested quote +
On August 07 2010 11:34 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
To make sure we can't be sure of how many there are?


So you know that flamewheel could be trying to be ambiguous about the number of people of each role yet you somehow chose 3 instead of perhaps 1.


there cant be 1 ninja because then he would instantly win

do you even understand what is going on
Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
Oh goodness me, FOX tv where do you get your sight? Can't you keep track, the puck is black. That's why the ice is white.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
August 07 2010 03:10 GMT
#572
3 and 1 ninja that is. Wouldn't it be strange to think that Flame added so much KP into this game? 3(maf)+3(ninja)+1?(vig)+2(madhatter)
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
August 07 2010 03:10 GMT
#573
Well 2 then lol.
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
August 07 2010 03:10 GMT
#574
On August 07 2010 12:03 LSB wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 07 2010 11:52 Pandain wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:48 chaoser wrote:
vets can't visit anyone else so i guess they can't be tracked?

agreed, then it reverts back to its "no mafia interference plan" where we have two confirmed blues. So perhaps we should have in that scenario the watcher and tracker come out in open. Than everyone RC(since they are clean.) Than we can hunt down the vets. Would be worth it if we get a GF. Very worth it.

In addition, in the HIGHLY unlikely scenario that he IS GF, than he will still get caught as stated above.

Okay I agree with Pandain now.

Here's the statistical breakdown.

Probability that BM is Godfather/Ninja.
I'm assuming 3 ninja's and Pyrr is a Ninja
27/30= 90%

So 90% is the initial success rate.

But what if more than one person visits BM? Let's say 2 people visits BM
It could be 2 Stalkers, 1 Stalker and 1 Innocent Stalker, 1 Stalker and a random Mafia person.
This could be trouble, the random Mafia person could attempt to vouch for BM. But the watcher can't just Post everyone who visited BM, because we could then just lose 2 stalker, the watchers, and BM. 4 people dead

The probability of an Innocent stalker visiting BM is 28/29=96.55%

Well, I'm not ninja. There could be 7 ninjas for all we know. Probability of BM becoming godfather tonight if he doesn't get lynched and is mafia is 100% and only 23/30 players are not mafia.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
August 07 2010 03:11 GMT
#575
Question: What if there are more than 1 trackers/watchers?
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
August 07 2010 03:12 GMT
#576
On August 07 2010 12:10 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 07 2010 12:03 LSB wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:52 Pandain wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:48 chaoser wrote:
vets can't visit anyone else so i guess they can't be tracked?

agreed, then it reverts back to its "no mafia interference plan" where we have two confirmed blues. So perhaps we should have in that scenario the watcher and tracker come out in open. Than everyone RC(since they are clean.) Than we can hunt down the vets. Would be worth it if we get a GF. Very worth it.

In addition, in the HIGHLY unlikely scenario that he IS GF, than he will still get caught as stated above.

Okay I agree with Pandain now.

Here's the statistical breakdown.

Probability that BM is Godfather/Ninja.
I'm assuming 3 ninja's and Pyrr is a Ninja
27/30= 90%

So 90% is the initial success rate.

But what if more than one person visits BM? Let's say 2 people visits BM
It could be 2 Stalkers, 1 Stalker and 1 Innocent Stalker, 1 Stalker and a random Mafia person.
This could be trouble, the random Mafia person could attempt to vouch for BM. But the watcher can't just Post everyone who visited BM, because we could then just lose 2 stalker, the watchers, and BM. 4 people dead

The probability of an Innocent stalker visiting BM is 28/29=96.55%

Well, I'm not ninja. There could be 7 ninjas for all we know. Probability of BM becoming godfather tonight if he doesn't get lynched and is mafia is 100% and only 23/30 players are not mafia.


Once again, he is not Ninja. I can guarantee you that. He claimed blue, asked everyone to pm him, has been so active. That's just asking for trouble and would ruin a Ninja.

He is either blue or red. If he is red he will be GF as Pyrr has said.

Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
August 07 2010 03:13 GMT
#577
On August 07 2010 12:11 SouthRawrea wrote:
Question: What if there are more than 1 trackers/watchers?


Than I kill Flamewheel
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
August 07 2010 03:15 GMT
#578
On August 07 2010 12:08 LSB wrote:
Before I go to sleep.

What about this?

Watcher watches BM. Everyone else makes a beeline and random medics / Vigilanties / Stalkers go visit BM.

The Watcher then proceeds to PM everyone who visited BM and demands a Role Claim.
If someone pretends to be watcher, he'll probably make a mistake and won't send a PM to the right person, and then easy expose.

After a while, if the people who visited BM confirm that the Watcher is correct. The Watcher PMs everyone else who did not visit BM and demands a roleclaim

So we basically get 1 person who is confirmed.

First thing: no benefit to using BM as the watched person.

That said: maybe this is better. Only problems are with getting waxed but our blues will know if they get waxed so that's not even a problem. Mafia would get the ID of the Watcher but we could protect them indefinitely with bus driver, right?

Dude I think we might have a winner, here. Please look at LSB's plan here and critique it.
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
August 07 2010 03:17 GMT
#579
On August 07 2010 12:09 Divinek wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 07 2010 12:08 LSB wrote:
Before I go to sleep.

What about this?

Watcher watches BM. Everyone else makes a beeline and random medics / Vigilanties / Stalkers go visit BM.

The Watcher then proceeds to PM everyone who visited BM and demands a Role Claim.
If someone pretends to be watcher, he'll probably make a mistake and won't send a PM to the right person, and then easy expose.

After a while, if the people who visited BM confirm that the Watcher is correct. The Watcher PMs everyone else who did not visit BM and demands a roleclaim

So we basically get 1 person who is confirmed.


nope that doesnt work cause roleblocker can get all that info if he pms everyone and then mafia have huge list of ez blue targets.

If any green gets a PM, he comes forward and says "this person sent me a PM even though I did not visit the target" and we lynch the roleblocker or whichever mafia sent a green a message saying he was watched.

chaoser
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States5541 Posts
August 07 2010 03:18 GMT
#580
On August 07 2010 12:15 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 07 2010 12:08 LSB wrote:
Before I go to sleep.

What about this?

Watcher watches BM. Everyone else makes a beeline and random medics / Vigilanties / Stalkers go visit BM.

The Watcher then proceeds to PM everyone who visited BM and demands a Role Claim.
If someone pretends to be watcher, he'll probably make a mistake and won't send a PM to the right person, and then easy expose.

After a while, if the people who visited BM confirm that the Watcher is correct. The Watcher PMs everyone else who did not visit BM and demands a roleclaim

So we basically get 1 person who is confirmed.

First thing: no benefit to using BM as the watched person.

That said: maybe this is better. Only problems are with getting waxed but our blues will know if they get waxed so that's not even a problem. Mafia would get the ID of the Watcher but we could protect them indefinitely with bus driver, right?

Dude I think we might have a winner, here. Please look at LSB's plan here and critique it.


How would people know which one is real watcher and which one is mafia if they get asked?
Haven't you heard? I'm not an ex-progamer. I'm not a poker player. I'm not an admin of the site. I'm mother fucking Rekrul.
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