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LSB
United States5171 Posts
On August 07 2010 10:44 chaoser wrote: We're not saying claim today/tonight, we're saying claim day 2/day 3 Okay, what's stopping the Mafia from doublestacking someone they day a person claims Vig? So at night, their's only going to be 3 KP? And if we're talking about a day2/day3 plan. What's wrong with using DT mouths? | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
My post above should have read Okay, what's stopping the Mafia from doublestacking someone the* day a person claims Vig? So at night, there's* only going to be 3 dead*? | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
My concern is, we cannot be 100% sure the vig is real. The mafia can always find a way to slip through and mess us up. For example, although you say that at that point Mafia will be self restricting themselves, making their own KP 2 Following this plan The plan involves a vigi so even if GF claims, GF isn't going to be able to magically make a fourth KP come out of thin air at night We'd kill the Vigilante, WASTING a lynch. In actuality the Mafia KP goes up to 6 2 the first night + The Vigilante + 3 the second night. Okay, put that on the backburner. I like the idea of tracker/watcher. Of course, we couldn't never truly know, but we'd get Data. Main problem is that we can't let the data get to the mafia, or else the mafia gets a nice little hit list of Blue roles. | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
On August 07 2010 10:57 Pandain wrote: Pandain's 1st Refinement of his plan: So I was making this whole complicated thing about my plan, when I thought of something. Here's my thoughts......... Watccher and tracker visit BM Night hit will tell us whether they are mafia, since tracker will know about mafia. If mafia: Tracker and watcher gather up, two medics protect both of them. We lynch a certain mafia. Have town circle also. Possible mass roleclaim? If blue: We have a circle of 3 blues, perfect eh? Thoughts? Okay here's how I see the plan. The Watcher is the 'medic' making sure that BM does not get hit. Also he's there to find who the tracker is. The tracker is there to make sure BM is not mafia. Main problem, what if BM is the Godfather? he can't be tracked. Probability low, but with people screaming "BM is Godfather!" I'd pick someone else. Second problem, what if the mafia sends a framer to BM? Well, we lynch both the tracker and the framer. VERY good for us. The framer could cause lots of problems Offshoot of second problem. What if the Innocent Stalker visits BM? We lynch both, and we lose an Innocent stalker and the Tracker Curve Balls: I'll think more on this situation. But Pandain, it's better than anything I can think of myself. Assuming totally random odds, and also only 1 innocent stalker, there is a 93.44% chance of succeeding. | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
On August 07 2010 11:15 LSB wrote: I'll think more on this situation. But Pandain, it's better than anything I can think of myself. Assuming totally random odds, and also only 1 innocent stalker, there is a 93.44% chance of succeeding. Change this to 93.33% I can't do math x.x | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
On August 07 2010 11:18 SouthRawrea wrote: Also would like to mention we have multiple, stackable medics. Do we? We have people who can be used as 'medics' Watchers, Bus Drivers, Medics. But possibly only 1 medic | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
On August 07 2010 11:30 SouthRawrea wrote: Thank you very much. I lost track of what I was saying half way through and was hoping it would make sense. I've got the idea still in my head though. I'll try and clarify in just a moment after going through the idea itself again. LMAO | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
On August 07 2010 11:52 Pandain wrote: agreed, then it reverts back to its "no mafia interference plan" where we have two confirmed blues. So perhaps we should have in that scenario the watcher and tracker come out in open. Than everyone RC(since they are clean.) Than we can hunt down the vets. Would be worth it if we get a GF. Very worth it. In addition, in the HIGHLY unlikely scenario that he IS GF, than he will still get caught as stated above. Okay I agree with Pandain now. Here's the statistical breakdown. Probability that BM is Godfather/Ninja. I'm assuming 3 ninja's and Pyrr is a Ninja 27/30= 90% So 90% is the initial success rate. But what if more than one person visits BM? Let's say 2 people visits BM It could be 2 Stalkers, 1 Stalker and 1 Innocent Stalker, 1 Stalker and a random Mafia person. This could be trouble, the random Mafia person could attempt to vouch for BM. But the watcher can't just Post everyone who visited BM, because we could then just lose 2 stalker, the watchers, and BM. 4 people dead The probability of an Innocent stalker visiting BM is 28/29=96.55% | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
What about this? Watcher watches BM. Everyone else makes a beeline and random medics / Vigilanties / Stalkers go visit BM. The Watcher then proceeds to PM everyone who visited BM and demands a Role Claim. If someone pretends to be watcher, he'll probably make a mistake and won't send a PM to the right person, and then easy expose. After a while, if the people who visited BM confirm that the Watcher is correct. The Watcher PMs everyone else who did not visit BM and demands a roleclaim So we basically get 1 person who is confirmed. | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
On August 07 2010 22:26 SouthRawrea wrote: Harsh. The problem with your plan Bill Murray and Pandain's is what if there's more than 1 tracker OR watcher? We're fucked then if we continue along with either of your plans. The chances of this being the case are NOT negligible either. Doesn't matter BM/Pandain's plan calls for the Tracker to claim. Here's the Problem Framer Claims that he's the tracker So we follow this plan On August 07 2010 19:15 Bill Murray wrote: your plan isn't good. let me explain this in language even a 14 year old would understand: watcher watches player a tracker tracks player a framer frames player a roleblocker blocks player a watcher sees tracker, framer, roleblocker, but doesn't know who is who This is my plan: watcher watches the claimed tracker who says he's visiting player a tracker visits player a = we trust him tracker doesn't visit player a = we discuss lynching him Framer frames player a watcher watches player a and watcher watches the claimed tracker who says he's visiting player a tracker visits player a = we trust him oops | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
On August 07 2010 12:40 Divinek wrote: but how do we set up a real circle when the role blocker gets in there Okay, I will make an extreamly extended version of my plan PROBLEMS: The watcher has to be smart. If the watcher is dumb/inactive, the plan fails Day 1 We agree to this plan :D Night one On August 07 2010 12:35 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: Current Version of LSB Plan We pick a THIS GUY. All watchers watch him. All detectives check him. All medics prot him. All trackers track him. Bus drivers and vigis stay away. Hatters probably stay away, too. Day 2: On August 07 2010 12:35 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: If a blue's action went through (no waxing) they will expect a PM from a watcher. If no PMs are sent, there is no watcher or watcher was waxed. If a blue gets one PM, then that is the real watcher unless the unlikely event of the watcher being waxed (mafia can possibly claim waxed watcher). If a green gets a PM they can come forward - they are nosy neighbor or mafia is faking. If no greens come forward we are probably doing good. If a blue that didn't act on THIS GUY gets a PM, we have a surefire mafia. If no one steps forward seeing shenanigans for say, 24 hours. We can have watcher step forward - no one else comes forward we can protect them with bus. If more than one step forward, a blue can use pm evidence to out them if they are fake, maybe a DT can use a mouth they've confirmed (look for mafia to use an innocent as a mouth here, or maybe a mafia as a mouth like rastaban/sr last game). So basically, Day2 is there to get the watcher confirmed. The watcher then STEPS FORWARD, we'll have to sort though everything. Anyone messing with the plan, should be spotted and killed. Night 2 Bus Driver protects Watcher. If there is only one DT claim, Watcher orders Medics to protect DT. (iffy, but I don't think there is only going to be one DT claim) The Watcher will now control detective/trackers action. Watcher randomly assigns detectives to check up on people. Watcher has a list of what they should be, and the detective needs to match the list. Watcher does the same thing with trackers A few notes. *If a framer frames someone, they will show as regular red, not red special. So the Watcher should send the DT to people who claimed a blue role that can visit people We work from here, but the circle could gradually confirm each other. Takes a bunch of logic though | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
And I voted for love1another because as with my earlier post, I feel we should lynch an inactive/unhelpful person. Roffles... how in the world did a bandwagon magically appear? I agree, BM is scummy, but let's wait until Day 2, when we can have more information | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
On August 08 2010 11:09 Divinek wrote: realistically best case scenario they were green! Expected, I don't see people wanting to be inactive if they were blue or red | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
On August 08 2010 15:40 bumatlarge wrote: Chezinu is awesome. but enough about that, how is this watcher plan going to go through, LSB's way? I wouldn't recommend it. My plan relys on complete town cohesion. Every single blue role must participate, or else it fails. The problem is, people have been accusing each other distracting from forming a plan. Certainly someone in there is doing this deliberatively, in order for us to win, we have to work together and random accusations distracts us. Just proceed as normal. I'll try to push my plan tomorrow | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
Here are the instructions for the plan + Show Spoiler + On August 07 2010 23:17 LSB wrote: Okay, I will make an extreamly extended version of my plan PROBLEMS: The watcher has to be smart. If the watcher is dumb/inactive, the plan fails Day 1 We agree to this plan :D Night one Day 2: So basically, Day2 is there to get the watcher confirmed. The watcher then STEPS FORWARD, we'll have to sort though everything. Anyone messing with the plan, should be spotted and killed. Night 2 Bus Driver protects Watcher. If there is only one DT claim, Watcher orders Medics to protect DT. (iffy, but I don't think there is only going to be one DT claim) The Watcher will now control detective/trackers action. Watcher randomly assigns detectives to check up on people. Watcher has a list of what they should be, and the detective needs to match the list. Watcher does the same thing with trackers A few notes. *If a framer frames someone, they will show as regular red, not red special. So the Watcher should send the DT to people who claimed a blue role that can visit people We work from here, but the circle could gradually confirm each other. Takes a bunch of logic though Here's a breakdown by individual roles Conan the Not-So-Barbaric (Detective): Role check XeliN Active Stalker (Tracker): Stalk XeliN Lazy Stalker (Watcher): Watch XeliN Boy Scout (Medic): Protect XeliN Wannabe Batman (Vigilante): Do not target Xelin Mad Nutter (Mad Hatter): Do not target Xelin Bus Driver (Bus Driver): Do not target Xelin Disillusioned Teachers' Brigade (Mafia): PM Me and I'll give you super secrete instructions ;P! | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
What this will do is allow us to get a rolecall done, and allow us to start setting up a circle of confirmed blue roles protecting each other, letting us use our abilities the best way possible. The mafia wants to cause disorder, and if we let them succeed, we won't get anything done. | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
On August 09 2010 06:23 Bill Murray wrote: all i'm saying is that xelin might be innocent, even if he comes up red, depending on how many people the watcher saw visit him in the night. @ LSB: also, assume we only have 1 watcher, what if they die? what if they are inactive, and haven't see the plan? what is the plan's take on the watcher claiming? Okay, yeah, it hinges on the watcher. I've tried my best to get this flaw fixed as best I've can. I've layed out the plan, I've PMed everyone so the watcher should be alerted of the plan. The purpose of the plan is to have the watcher claim, and therefore we have a confirmed townie We're going to protect the watcher after he claiming by busdrivering the watcher with someone random. That way the watcher can't be targeted by the mafia. Another glitch with the plan would be if XeliN is the only watcher. But looks like from his posts he is not rastaban, I'm assuming your questions are answered? It sounds like you misunderstood the plan. The purpose would be that it would be impossible for the mafia to guess every person who visited XeliN. And even if they did, we'll we'd be screwed anyways. | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
On August 09 2010 07:47 XeliN wrote: Could someone PM my role or what I'm expected of in this plan? I'm slightly confused although only skim read posts in between HoN games so far. Done | ||
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