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Vigi should 100% claim. Let's first look at the facts:
1) Two real hits went down last night, one on Roffles, one on Jayme
2) BC says he got hit
3) The only way that can happen is through Vigi
Two cases can happen:
BC is lying
BC is telling the truth
In that first case, the only way it would work is if a fake vigi claims. If no real vigi claims then we know BC is 100% lying. If a fake vigi does claim,,then both BC and Vigi who claims are both liars, they are now 100% linked to each other. Now, they both can't be GF and in this situation, the vigi will be GF because, like you said, he will be checked next night. So we check BC instead. If he's red, both go down. Even in the case BC is GF, they have no idea who we're going to check, it's a 50/50 risk for them that we will find out. That's not a risk they probably want to take. The final reason mafia wouldn't do this is because I don't care about using the vigi as a confirmed townie, I just want information on what happened like night, which two the mafia actually hit, and which one was hit by vigi.
Now, on to the BC tells truth. Well in that case, a fake vigi can claim first or a real one can. If the real one does first, then that's that. If the fake one does, the real one can just claim and there will be a 1 v 1. Even if the real one claims first and then a fake one claims, we're still left with a 1v1 and a dead mafia sooner or later.
for all other counter claims. people ready stated it:
There's no way of us knowing whether or not the claim is true or false. There may or may not be one or two Vigis and even then 2 scum can step up and counter claim.
I actually disagree here. If 2 scum step up and counterclaim it exposes them in the open under public scrutiny. We can lynch the first claimant (the one who fired the shot) and see if he told the truth. Then we can have the other two shoot each other during the night with their vigi shots. If neither of them dies then we know they're both lying.
I actually do feel like I left something out so if anyone else can think of it, please help, I'm suppose to be asleep right now, if my parents catch me up i'm fucked. I'll write more tomorrow
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The main reason for them claiming right now is so we have exact information on what happened last night. We can use them later if it turns out true. If a vigi has used a hit and we know them 100% to be vigi, they should always claim because then we have a 100% confirmed townie
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good night town. I still got a case to compile tomorrow so i'll see you then.
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Also, the final note i will add is that BC never said a vigi hit him, only that he got hit and is still alive. That means it's all up to the vigi who is claiming to tell us who he hit and why. If he's lying then another vigi will claim. If he's not then no one else will. It doesn't matter if BC is lying or not. It's all about the Vigi claiming.
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actually scratch that last one, i feel like i'm on to something but it's jsut out of reach. will figure it out tomorrow
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On July 23 2010 17:58 Subversion wrote:
Also, isn't there a situation where Tricode and BC could BOTH be lying?
Seems like we've just blindly accepted Tricode's claim as fact here.
But BC could be lying, and so could Tricode.
I guess that would be risky though since the real vig could counter-claim.
On July 23 2010 15:54 chaoser wrote:Vigi should 100% claim. Let's first look at the facts: 1) Two real hits went down last night, one on Roffles, one on Jayme 2) BC says he got hit 3) The only way that can happen is through Vigi Two cases can happen:BC is lying BC is telling the truth In that first case, the only way it would work is if a fake vigi claims. If no real vigi claims then we know BC is 100% lying. If a fake vigi does claim,,then both BC and Vigi who claims are both liars, they are now 100% linked to each other. Now, they both can't be GF and in this situation, the vigi will be GF because, like you said, he will be checked next night. So we check BC instead. If he's red, both go down. Even in the case BC is GF, they have no idea who we're going to check, it's a 50/50 risk for them that we will find out. That's not a risk they probably want to take. The final reason mafia wouldn't do this is because I don't care about using the vigi as a confirmed townie, I just want information on what happened like night, which two the mafia actually hit, and which one was hit by vigi. Now, on to the BC tells truth. Well in that case, a fake vigi can claim first or a real one can. If the real one does first, then that's that. If the fake one does, the real one can just claim and there will be a 1 v 1. Even if the real one claims first and then a fake one claims, we're still left with a 1v1 and a dead mafia sooner or later. for all other counter claims. people ready stated it: Show nested quote +There's no way of us knowing whether or not the claim is true or false. There may or may not be one or two Vigis and even then 2 scum can step up and counter claim.
I actually disagree here. If 2 scum step up and counterclaim it exposes them in the open under public scrutiny. We can lynch the first claimant (the one who fired the shot) and see if he told the truth. Then we can have the other two shoot each other during the night with their vigi shots. If neither of them dies then we know they're both lying. I actually do feel like I left something out so if anyone else can think of it, please help, I'm suppose to be asleep right now, if my parents catch me up i'm fucked. I'll write more tomorrow
I talked about it already
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So I finally have enough evidence to build a case. I've looked about 3-4 times back and forth on the thread and now I think I have enough evidence to make a case that should show that Subversion is very likely to be mafia. Let's start with the two voting incidents:
The Two Votes
As we all know, on Day 1, youngminii and Hyperbola were both on the shopping block. At the crucial moment of 9:16, the last vote of the night, Subversion pipes in with a:
Subversion Korea (South). July 19 2010 09:16. Posts 732 PM Profile Blog Report Quote #
##Vote: Hyperbola
Not really convinced by him, and there's not really any other clear choice for me right now.
and casts the deciding vote. This vote pushed Hyperbola to 6, keeping youngminii (at 5), safe from death. As we've later found out, Hyperbola was green. This action came under scrutiny from a number of people:
SiNiquity:
Subversion Votes for Hyperbola with a one liner as night approaches, 45 minutes before the deadline. The vote was previously tied at 5-5. There wasn't a vote count with the Jayme mistake in it, as Jayme voted in between the Last Non-Final Vote Count (4.5 hours before deadline) and the Final Vote Count. It could be a freak coincidence, and had it been left at tied Hyperbola would've won, as he achieved more votes first. But maybe it was too close for comfort, as it was 7 - 5 before two people unvoted Hyperbole. Who's to say another wouldn't have jumped ship? Putting it 6-5 made it more secure.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=133561¤tpage=27#538
tree.hugger:
Now, that's not a reason, and furthermore, that's a lie. There's at least one other choice that's close, and several others getting votes. This vote is highly influential, but nobody really caught onto it at the time. But if youngminii is mafia, then that's a direct implication of subversion as well.
Curious-er and curious-er.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=133561¤tpage=30#588
and of course, me:
Also, I'm going to put in my vote for Subversion. So far I don't know how I feel about BrownBear. At first I wanted to vote him. He's been playing badly and didn't do anything day one. But then at the same time people jumped all over voting for him in the beginning until just recently when people switched to Subversion, or at least it feels like that.
Subversion's little mafia mistake statement is just weird all in all and was part of that voting block (everyone's already mentioned this) so I'll put my vote on him for now but I'll have to see. Still a full day left.
##vote Subversion
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=133561¤tpage=37#740
And so with these critisims on him, we moved onto day two where him and BrownBear topped out the votes early in the day. Both at about 5 a piece, the pressure was building on. Then it happened, Pandain starts a case against me and Prry starts a case against DTA. BTW, at this moment, I am not saying that they are both mafia scum. Pandain I don't really think is and is just townie and Prry I don't know yet. Either way, it's not the cases that I'm suspicious about, it's the very very quick voting afterwards. I immediately get 2 votes off youngminii and SouthRawrea. Right after Prry's statement, DTA gets THREE votes in about half an hour, from XeLin, zeks, and Subversion. This whole thing moved the voting off two people into three and finally, at the end of that day, DTA got killed. If you've read my post about voting patterns, you'll see that near the end of that voting process Subversion was "safe", his votes actually FELL off him in hot butter and in the end he was no where close to danger, being at 6 and then jumping up to 8. You can say, but chaoser, what about you? you were also safe! And I will say, yes, I didn't die, but I wasn't safe. I was on top of that vote list back and forth with DTA and due to votelists from everyone that confused me to no end, I actually thought I was dead by end of day. Subversion, on the other hand, was on the top for a only 7 MINUTES before falling down down down.
now, from all this, you can't 100% say Subversion is mafia and some people have said it's coincidence. But things start to be less of a coincidence and more of a trend once it happens more than once don't you think? Also, notice that now youngminii and Subversion are TIED to each other. Sub saved youngminii's ass Day 1, youngminii pushed VERY hard for me to die and that saved Subversion Day 2. At the very least, these incidents over the last two days ties them very very much together.
The next part is about the two things he's said that sound OFF
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(by the way, if you guys (tree.hugger, SiNiquity), somewhere in the thread took back your statements about Subversion, inform me and I will repost without your comments on him. Or, if you guys won't want me using your quotes, I'll rewrite without them)
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The Two Statements
At the beginning of Day 2, Subversion makes an observation which tree.hugger picks up almost immediately:
On July 20 2010 14:03 tree.hugger wrote:Show nested quote +On July 20 2010 13:44 Subversion wrote:
Seems at the moment, mafia aren't making too many mistakes. Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha. I have never, ever seen a townie say something like this. So narcissistic you had to complement yourself? GG.
People later come to his defense saying's it's bad townie play. Is it though? Or is it bad mafia play? Either way, it's the main reason he gets voted on that day.
Now, after the day ended, I started to play him less of mine until he pulls out another statement:
On July 23 2010 12:51 Subversion wrote:
so excited to see who died.
even tho i really think it might be me, lolz.
Let me ask you, Who? would be excited about people dying? He didn't say he's interested or that he's waiting for it or that he wants to see what happens in the Night, no he's EXCITED about seeing who dies. I point this out with:
chaoser United States. July 23 2010 12:58. Posts 765 PM Profile Quote Edit #
On July 23 2010 12:51 Subversion wrote:
so excited to see who died.
even tho i really think it might be me, lolz.
what a scummy thing to say...
and I get jumped on by youngminii and Pandain.
Saying something scummy one time, OK, I can buy that you're just newbie and did it. But when you do it twice, I'mma take notice. Am I the only one who thinks what he says the second time is scummy? I was interested in the Night Post too cause that's more information, but I don't think I'd ever phrase my interest as "I'm excited to see who died"
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I'll talk about his blue claim now.
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Blue Claim
When he first hinted blue, my suspicions fell off him. And then he soft claimed it and now apparently he's hard claimed in. Now I ask, if mafia had a CONFIRMED blue, why didn't they hit him?
His claim of blue brought him back from the edges of being lynched but apparently it wasn't enough for mafia to try to kill him. Did they expect medic proc or that he's a vet? Why not test it out? He claimed blue, that's very important in general but somehow it's now lost under the rug. Usually when people claim blue and don't die that first night, something fishy is going on. We should investigate that fishiness.
I've now made the majority of my case. At this time, I'm going to ask what other people think about what I've written. Once we come to a decently unanimous decision, we can all vote together.
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I've said before that I don't like to come out and make big announcements about what I feel until I'm sure. You should take that into consideration, that this accusation isn't a light matter for me.
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On July 23 2010 22:50 citi.zen wrote:
This is actually pretty cool. Both d3 and BC claimed veteran. Nobody else came forward. No reason not to trust them if no counter claim comes by the end of the day. Then we also confirm the Vigi. There are two DTs alive who performed 2 checks each - so possibly 4 more confirmed townies for a total of 7 confirmed townies. Not bad!
I don't think they claimed vet. didn't BC say he got medic saved?
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On July 24 2010 01:55 Protactinium wrote:Show nested quote +On July 24 2010 01:50 SiNiquity wrote:On July 24 2010 01:38 citi.zen wrote:
It does confirm that either Tricode and BC are both red, or Triode is innocent. So it tells us more about Tricode than about BC at this time. True. Though if Tricode were Mafia, it would give us 2 Mafia members immediately, which would be a wealth of information for us. It would be one hell of a Mafia gamble to fake all of this, as they would have to bank on us not lynching Tricode. There's nothing to gain from this for the Mafia except for confusion. As it's already been said, at most one of them can be Godfather. It's a huge risk right there to assume neither of them have been checked in the four checks total. Even if that goes through, what do they gain? They don't cast suspicion on anybody in the town. Even so, as already pointed out lynching the one who claims Vigilante does not tell us anything about the person claiming to have taken the shot. I don't see a plausible reason why Mafia would do this, since even if both are not lynched today, there's nothing they can do about Detective checks in the night, and at that point the Suicide Bomber would have to kill one of his Mafia buddies for the "two-fer." Ah, I just thought about how the suicide bomber plays into all of this. Will think about it because it can potentially change the "why" and "what has to be done", but guests have arrived. Toodles for the day.
Even if this is all some complex plot to get a lot of blues on one person, the suicide bomber still has to decide on whether 1) there ARE that many blues on the teammate he's going to blow and 2) which of his teammates to blow up. It's a stupid idea for mafia to double-lie for both BC and Tricode cause when one falls, the other will too. The only way I can see this somehow working out in mafia's slight favor is if BC is mafia (godfather even), he got hit by Tricode and protected by someone else but the chances of that are so low and can be checked via a DT visit.
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Tricode's weird decision to hit BC is actually working out in our favor lol
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On July 24 2010 02:11 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On July 24 2010 02:03 citi.zen wrote:On July 24 2010 01:50 SiNiquity wrote:On July 24 2010 01:38 citi.zen wrote:
It does confirm that either Tricode and BC are both red, or Triode is innocent. So it tells us more about Tricode than about BC at this time. True. Though if Tricode were Mafia, it would give us 2 Mafia members immediately, which would be a wealth of information for us. It would be one hell of a Mafia gamble to fake all of this, as they would have to bank on us not lynching Tricode. I don't know about killing tricode, it makes zero sense - he's almost confirmed and thus potentially very useful. I am wondering whether the two DTs can use tricode to coordinate between themselves. All he would do is pass them each other's name (or name of their contact). He would also have to keep his mouth shut to everyone else. If the two Dts were in contact somehow we'd be in fantastic shape. Comments? I like the idea, but just wanted to point out a couple caveats. 1. He isn't 100% confirmed it is risky. As of yet there is no evidence at all that the hit ever happened beyond both there words. While it is unlikely is it worth exposing both DTs to this possibility? 2. What if he gets a mafia claim? if the mafia claim fast then if 1 of the DTs isn't active he may go ahead and exchange the names. Even if all three go through would he then share them all, tell us who the three were?
If the hit didn't even happen then we can assume both are mafia and that in general is a bad play by mafia, two public figures lying about roles. Either BC is mafia and lying or both are telling the truth. I think those are the only two real possibilities...right?
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On July 24 2010 02:41 rastaban wrote:
Sorry that first line should have been:
it is not nearly as risky a mafia play as you are making it to be as there are other possibilities.
Ok yeah, I didn't think about the IT, I knew I forgot something.
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We'll probably have more than enough information by next day. We got a ton from last night, still got another day and night. Let's make mafia pay.
##vote doublelynch
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On July 24 2010 03:57 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On July 24 2010 03:51 Bill Murray wrote:Vote Count:
1] Pyrrhuloxia (Misder)
1] zeks (pandain)
1] SouthRawrEa (bumatlarge) Abstain:Siniquity
BrownBear
Pyrrhuloxia
Protactinium
zeks
Amber[LighT]
~OpZ~
rastaban
chaoser Double Lynch:Siniquity
BrownBear
Pyrrhuloxia
Protactinium
zeks
~OpZ~
rastaban
bumatlarge
chaoser With 25 left, it takes 13 for majority (which would end the day), or to pass a double lynch for the next day. BM, I was wondering if you could clarify the majority part? The OP lists "48 hour days, 24 hour nights", I didn't see anything about majority and since it can be anti-town it would be nice to have the extra time. Thanks,
I think he means there are 25 players left so 13 more need to vote double lynch to get it passed? I don't understand the ending day part...does passing double lynch mean the day ends?
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It's a huge issue that Tricode's target was BC, and NOT Jayme or Roffles. If his target had been one of the latter two, then, in the absence of a counter-claim, we could safely assume that the mafia had targeted BC. However, because Tricode's target was BC, that makes it still possible that BC is red. This is something we can't really even test out by lynching Tricode (thus why that's a terrible idea), because if he flips red, then yes, so is BC, but if he flips Vigilante, then BC remains unconfirmed.
I just realized, if they both really were mafia, wouldn't Tricode WANT to claim he hit Jayme or Roffles? That leads us to the assumption that BC got hit by mafia-->he is to be trusted. In this way, they can both lie and get away with it and gain an advantage?
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EPT
