Godfather Mafia
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Since the recruit hasn't happened yet the confirmed role tally should be Godfather 1 Mafia 0 Free Masons 2 Lovers 2 Pro-Town ~19 (possible traitors) | ||
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The Godfather will recruit a new mafia member before the game begins (after role PMs). No other night actions will be carried out on “Night 0,” and the mafia member will be notified of his status before the game begins. For this reason, role PMs will be sent out 24 hours before the game begins. If the Godfather fails to PM me during Night 0, no one will be recruited. So unfortunately none of the other PR will go, but it should mean there is no kill either. | ||
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but other than that you are right only role-claim and death proclaims otherwise (though neither are necessarily accurate. | ||
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On June 30 2010 11:32 DarthThienAn wrote: Got 20 people! Game will start in ~23.5 hours. Role PMs should all be sent out within half an hour. I think that makes it like 8-9 hours from now, though I might be off. | ||
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Anyway I have a semblance of a plan. In this game the worst thing that can happen is to out a blue as not only can they be killed but they could also be recruited. Not all the blues are equal so here seems the be the priority Roleblocker Detective Jailkeeper Coroner Dream Catcher Veteran Mad Hatter I have the Roleblocker listed first because if he blocks even one mafia then they get no night kill. This gives a couple different options. First if we have a confirmed mafia then we can have him blocked which will shut down the mafia. Now the same person can't be blocked twice in a row but if we could find 2 mafia they could be locked down permanently while the rest are sought out. The best plan for the roleblocker is to start randomly blocking people and if we get a night where there is no kill then you can try again the in 2 nights and cut down mafia kills in half or reveal the culprit. Now this isn't 100% because a veteran and the godfather could be hit and cause this due to 2 lives. The jailkeeper can keep someone from being recruited, the powerful part of this is that it can be used on the same person multiple times. Assuming that person wasn't recruited this turn (18/20 chance) then if they are continually jailed you actually have someone that you know isn't recruited. One of the good players above would probably be best, though risky since they have a higher chance of a night 0 recruit. Last thought Bill Murray put up an excellent list, while I don't think he is scum, since they can't directly communicate with the godfather it would be an excellent way to try and suggest some targets for him. Just something to keep in mind | ||
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There is some people calling out for L as a leader so I have an idea and wanted to see if any one saw some glaring holes. We could request the DT and the Role Blocker both target him. If he is mafia or recruited then there would be no night kill so we could lynch him the next day. If he is gf then the hit goes through but now the DT knows who he is and it would be worth role-claiming to eliminate the GF If he is townie then the enemies hit goes through but we have a confirmed townie to lead us, then the jailer keeps him on lock down so he isn't recruited The flaw I see with this is that the Mafia could just kill him as their hit, though that might be too obvious The second option would be to jail rather than DT him (in conjunction with roleblock since it still goes through) The difference is that in this case the vulnerability is that if he is GF instead we won't know but since he role blocked he wouldn't get a recruit that night. though at that point we would need to decide if we wont to keep him jailed or try a DT sometime to confirm he is not mafia | ||
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On July 01 2010 13:35 DCLXVI wrote: Umm... all of this is fine except the GF recruits another mafia each night so the KP is essentially 2. I don't understand how you think that the mafia not killing someone is a good thing in this scenario - we roleblock someone GF recruits (please not a blue role) no deaths show we lynch a townie overall we lose two townies with no chance of hitting a mafia. The only possible benefit is a lucky blue role like DT finding mafia Yes prolonging the game is a good thing, but not at the expense of having more mafia recruited while killing 0 of them. How are we not wasting lynches on townies in this situation? We are only killing townies. But we are not "only" killing townies, the person is someone that normally would have been lynched instead so it is someone that is at least suspected mafia. It should have a success rate of finding mafia = to lynching with less townie deaths | ||
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On July 01 2010 13:41 YellowInk wrote: @ proper use of roleblockers discussion Right now, if I were a roleblocker, I would be targeting Korynne, L, BM, or someone I deemed a strong player. As I stated earlier, if I were godfather, I would have gone ahead and recruited a strong player on night 0. If you block one of us and find that the night hit was blocked, you may have just found yourself some scum. Until the godfather is dead, you can use that person as a block target every other night to reduce the hits. Once the godfather is dead you may want to claim and finger depending on the circumstances - though of course blocking someone and no night kill could mean a medic or another roleblocker or a vet, so this isn't 100% of course. My declaring this strategy will probably also make it less likely he wants to recruit the top players almost as effectively as town declaring to lynch top players. Once the role blocker passes through the top players they will have cleared some number of us (at least for the time being). It's just a WIFOM game as to whether the godfather will try to target any more of us. But if he does, at least you'll be on to us and be able to point us out when the godfather goes down. Great post, I think this is a good idea. Since we are forced to lynch every day we can combine the 2 methods, Lynch the inactives while RBing the top players. One thing to note, there is no medic in this game. We could have a jailer, who does much the same but also blocks recruiting and other abilities. | ||
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On July 01 2010 13:50 youngminii wrote: It's not that we have an 'extra townie'. You're simply delaying the game. You're getting a rubber band, stretching it out and claiming that it's a better rubber band than the original because it's longer. Since we have to lynch, it won't slow down the game but it will allow us to check 2 people a night | ||
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On July 01 2010 13:55 BrownBear wrote: Korynne, what do you think about the slight modification to my plan (we can roleblock twice in a row, so if a roleblock happens and nobody dies, keep that person alive and roleblock them again, THEN lynch them the next day)? This is all still assuming there's a roleblocker in the game, obviously. I've decided your idea is worth trying at least on night 1. If it fails, then it fails, and we don't do it again. We can't role block twice in a row | ||
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Thanks, thats what I meant but didn't say. oops. | ||
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On July 01 2010 13:52 Korynne wrote: I see, someone will always be lynched. In that case we pseudovote in this thread for mafia, and vote in the other thread for godfather. So whenever no NK happens, we kill the mafia the next day. If NK happens, then we just lynch whoever we think is likely to be GF the next day. Also roleblocking top players is lame YellowInk. FoS on you. That means all the best players can't use their roles... so the potentially good jailkeeper/detective/etc. can't do their thing... good job. Besides mafia can then get our top players killed by not killing at night (since they probably want to kill the top players anyway if they can't recruit them). So like, not good. And we'd have to be continuously roleblocking the top players, not just once and it's done with. Not sure I agree with the roleblock part being a bad idea. The only negative combo is blocking the DT for 1 night. The jailkeeper being RBed 1 night would be annoying but isn't critical since he would be guessing at first on who to protect. The veteran, lovers, masons, coroner etc.. wouldn't really matter losing 1 night of powers or am I missing something? | ||
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On June 30 2010 12:33 DarthThienAn wrote: Side note cuz I know it will come up: Roles were given out randomly. Specifically, I took a deck of cards and designated X cards to be X roles, put in enough cards to equal 20, shuffled, etc. Then I took the signup list and put it into a randomizer (tournament style). Took that list top from bottom as my new 1-20. Started flipping cards and assigning roles chronologically with that new list. Shuffled 19 cards (no Godfather) with 2 sets of 2 designated cards for the Free Masons / Lovers. Repeated the flipping + assigning process. TL;DR - it were r4Nd0|\/|. It is pretty much confirmed that there is 1 lover and 1 mason pair, at least in my mind. | ||
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Right now I think the best chance for the town is to follow the following 3 plans that were proposed 1. The 1 Mason reveal and jailkeeper protects, 2. Role block the better players in synch (Maybe DT them as well to grab the godfather since if he is a good player we could be in bad shape.) My vote is for starting with L 3. Lynch the inactive/quites ElyAs has yet to post, get talking! Night all! | ||
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On July 01 2010 14:29 Korynne wrote: Okay seriously people, what's with the idea of roleblocking the better players?? That just means that if a better player happens to be a blue role, they now can use the role less. -.- We should role block whoever we think is most likely to be mafia, and follow my plan with regards to lynching. We can lynch an inactive the first night, and from then on either lynch inactive/most likely to be GF. If we don't lynch most likely to be GF then we have DT check the most likely to be GF. As an example, if we agree to roleblock L, the worse that could happen is that he is DT or Jailer, all the other roles are nearly unaffected. But this means that tomorrow we have a confirmed townie who is innocent and a good player. The second thing it does is force the GF to start recruiting less obvious players since the prominent ones will be detected so quickly. It is worth risking losing 1 DT check (on a 1/20 chance) to gain that knowledge. We don't have to continually do them, but for the first few turns it would be very stong. Ok, now really off to bed | ||
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I don't think this is a legitimate reasoning against K as it is exactly what I did last night as well. Still only 2 posts from ElyAs, he really needs to speak up. At work but will continue to follow and post as possible. Looks like we have ~33 hours left until lynching time! | ||
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I think you are trying to lead us away from a good plan. L:s mulitipel jailkeepers wouldent be a problem since the blue would roleclaim to the mason. Since townies can't PM this game (unless you are the mason / lover pair) there is no way to roleclaim to the a Mason without making it public which means the jailkeeper would die that night. Masons are 2/19 which would mean 10.5 %. You seem good enough at match otherwise to know how to count overlapping. Why make such a big mistake? He us adding in the fact that the jailer would have to cover the mason. Who ever the jailer protects can't be recruited (though the percent should probably be lower since if he protects the GF or either mason it doesn't add the third safe option) making 3 people a night unrecruitable. | ||
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On July 02 2010 01:50 Korynne wrote: Oh so turns out I actually went through all the posts of YInk I needed to. Seriously people, my plan is solid. =\ It lets us do up to 3 actions a day instead of 1 and I think that's way more valuable than having potentially more night actions (if we have more than 1 DT/RB which is highly unlikely). Also if dream catcher gets DT/JK they should use it freely, except not overlapping DT with what we vote for in thread. I agree with this but I don't think that this is separate from blocking the top players. My reasoning is this if I was the GF I would target a top player first since even if I lose that player I can then recruit another, no big loss. Unless we are getting some major scum tells from someone then the top player most likely is the scum, especially since they could conceivably hide it better. I guess what I am saying is that while we shouldn't just target top players, that at least here on day 1 they are probably our must likely scum and it is better than choosing someone at random. one other thing, I don't know that we should go with voting plan on the DTs, they should use their own intuition or go with the list method proposed. Voting could be swayed more by the mafia (though since they don't know the GF this may be irrelevant). Actually I take that back, having people vote on the DT regardless of if he follows it or not would give us more chances to catch cuplrits if we notice patterns in how they choose who he votes for. | ||
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On July 02 2010 02:04 lakrismamma wrote: You are right about the first thing. My bad. This makes everything harder and more useless to have a mason claim. The second thing you are wrong about. Its still 2/19 for the masons the overlap is counted when you add the two possibilities together. Well if you are town then you would not play your own meta game but concentrate on getting the mafia.. You have not responded to any of my accusations either. hmmm.... maybe he is referring to the fact that since 1 person is already recruited there now only 18 possibilities? The jailer though only can't choose himself and can pick the mafia or GF which is why he is at 1/19. Being a new player my analytical skills are abysmal (I tried guessing on the harry potter game before reading the results to that point and all but 1 of my conclusions had so far been wrong.) so I am trying the straight logical approach for now and that part of YI seems fairly sound. Well I will stop defending him now because if he turns out scum I don't want my head on the line. o.O | ||
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On July 02 2010 02:22 Korynne wrote: We block the top player if people vote on a top player to block, simple as that. I don't see why that is listed as a separate thing. If we all think top players are likely to be scum, then we roleblock them. This means that we don't kill our top players unnecessarily. We're not choosing someone random to roleblock. -.- We're choosing whoever we think is most likely to be mafia, as indicated by a pseudovote in this thread! So a DT's intuition is better that a) getting more information because we can look at vote patterns, b) the "intuition" of all the town players, including the top players. This way we can eliminate people as GF for sure, which means even less overlap as DT because I doubt we have more than one DT to start with, and dream catcher should just check people who have not yet been checked. This plan only works if RB/DT follow it. It should work even if the DT doesn't follow it, since we will still benefit from the discussion of who could be GF and he will still have a list compiled. If the RB doesn't follow it then yes, there will be problems. | ||
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##mafia : Korynne This way we cover both players, and if indeed Korynne is godfather she wouldn't get a chance to recruit tonight. | ||
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On July 02 2010 10:28 YellowInk wrote: @DTA I think this was asked earlier but we didn't get an answer. What is the order of priorities in night actions? For instance, if you role block and recruit a given target, does it block the mafia KP? If you recruit and night kill a given target, does their body show up as mafia or town aligned? For the 1st one it does not block the KP if they are blocked on the night they are recruited, (mod stated this a few pages back) so jailing them as well may be required. | ||
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On July 02 2010 12:09 Thegilaboy wrote: So zeks will be our friendly townie leader? Sounds good to me, thank god he wasn't claiming jail keeper lol. Which of the following should we base our lynch vote on: 1. Scumminess of posting 2. Inactivity 3. Likelihood they were the first mafia recruit 4. Some other factor 1&2 combined, 3 is too hard to get a read on right now. Divinek is currently the least active person (baring browneY) He said he was working all day and that he is going to post soon. That was about 3 hours ago. | ||
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I need to proofread more. | ||
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If we lynch someone who would be mod killed for not voting, does the modkill go through first and 2nd most voted person dies or does he die and get mod killed at the same time? | ||
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Thanks (I mentioned this before but didn't include your name). | ||
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So if the DT gets killed but he investigated the GF that night, he would still know who the GF was and could finger him with his death claim. At least this is how I understand it to work. | ||
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On July 03 2010 03:45 Hesmyrr wrote: Also since it should be beneficial to pick a candidate for roleblock before day ends, let me actively try to start an discussion: given a choice, should we choose to roleblock someone suspected of Mafia (blocks NK) or Godfather (blocks recruitment)? Obviously Korynne's plan hinges on getting Mafia goon so we have some semblance of control over night death, but I rather like the idea of trying to roleblock Godfather too, since the # of successful recruitments he get off before dying is critical to the game's fate. Moreover by not shying away from RBing Godfather we can just choose to roleblock the scummiest player without worrying about details. We just need to remember in such case kill occurring in night does not necessarily mean the roleblocked player is town. As for roleblock candidate, I propose rastaban. I first noticed him only because of his frequent vote switch, but I don't think this is that bad chocie at all. He is fairly active in the game, but is one of those player who did not attract that much attention of the town, due to YI / Korynne / Bill Murray hogging all the town's spotlight. I would appreciate it if you guys also started talking about who to roleblock (since lynch candidate this point seem to be decided as either ElyAs or Abenson) and why. The problem with roleblocking the GF is that while it would be very productive, we have no way of knowing if it worked. Thats why the DT should consider getting a read on them even if the night kill isn't blocked. | ||
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There are so many questionable posts from him that I think we need to know his alignment and that he is not mafia. Here is my case + Show Spoiler + Well, I wasn't recruited, and Chezinu is still the godfather. Lets get this party started. The level 2 godfather might be very active to escape any such scrutiny, though probably not spouting out a plan like I am here. Yo, obviously (lol) not scum here. Here I present 3 denials from him that he is scum, one did come after BM made an accusation, but it strikes me as odd, no one else has tried to drop so many townie declarations. + Show Spoiler + If I were the godfather, I would have recruited a top player. Hey Godfather. How about you just give yourself up? That'll give this game 19 winners. Take one for the team. Here we have to 'Boast' posts if he is indeed scum. Of course saying you posts are scummy if you were scum is a logical fallacy, but I think they do weigh more scummy than most posts so far + Show Spoiler + If you read through the games I've played here (this is the fourth), you will find I have opened each game differently. This is for a few reasons which I might discuss in a general mafia thread, but it is primarily to make me unreadable. Here we have an explanation for the actions, that every game is played differently the problem is that as we are town it makes it hard for us to get a read on him which makes it slightly anti-town play. This doesn't mean he is scum but it gives him an answer for anything we accuse him of since there is no baseline + Show Spoiler + zeks = silent -> claiming mason supposedly forcing us to L's plan? I don't buy it. This here was so scummy that it almost clears him as scum probably wouldn't do that. I think he really just hadn't thought it out and was afraid we took it to easily at face value. As such I think a lynch would be a terrible choice on him, but I think that with this many items we should really go with roleblock. | ||
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##Vote YellowInk | ||
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On July 03 2010 08:56 Abenson wrote: I must admit, you're right. However, if we lynch randomly we are losing townies at a rapid pace. We lost 1 townie from lynch, and another from mafia recruitment each night. However, by not making a random lynch on day 1, we would end up with 17 townies, 3 mafia instead of 16 townie, 3 mafia. Your thoughts? We are already at 17 townies 2 mafia and a traitor so even if we lynch someone who would be modkilled it will start as 15 townies 3 mafia and a traitor (without a roleblock or other contingency hapening) | ||
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On July 03 2010 09:15 Abenson wrote: I see. Yea, I forgot that there are traitors in the game. Sure, but of course I'm looking for solutions that does not involve lynching me. Well if we are going for inactives, maybe we should be hanging L instead. The other option is lynch you and then have you play as Elyas :D ok maybe not and I don't know if that would be allowed but it is an idea. | ||
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Darth, are we allowed to post during the night cycles? | ||
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citi.zen - 2 (Korynne, BM) Korynne - 1 (Chezinu) YellowInk - 5 (lakrismamma, youngminii, rastaban, Abenson, BrownBear) rastaban - 1 (Hesmyrr) To Roleblocker: If the majority doesn't change, please roleblock YellowInk. | ||
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On July 03 2010 10:23 L wrote: And Elyas is different? Its way too late to get someone else bussed in, so we're pretty much forced to policy lynch and pick the least shitty out of the two candidates. you are probably right, and most of the votes for Elyas aren't from people on right now so too late to do anything. | ||
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On July 03 2010 10:25 L wrote: If we're chain blocking the same person twice, there's no action that needs to be taken on a no-hit night before day 3 anyways. Don't see how this defeats the purpose, but feel free to tell me. we lose the benefit knowing who was and wasn't scum that night. How do you see the mafia abusing the method of us RBing someone specific? | ||
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now 17/3 (2 mob + 1 traitor) day 2: 14/4 day 3: 11/5 day 4: 7/6 - if we hang GF this night day 5: 6/5 - we have to be right every night from this point on or lose, I would say though, that we are unlikely to be THAT unlucky so day 4 would be more likely 8/5 which puts us in a bad place but I would say day 4 is most important. Not sure if my day 4 is your day 3, and I am not trying to argue for or against any claims with this just want to put the numbers out there. | ||
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Final tally was by my count: citi.zen - 2 (Korynne, BM) Korynne - 1 (Chezinu) YellowInk - 5 (lakrismamma, youngminii, rastaban, Abenson, BrownBear) rastaban - 1 (Hesmyrr) To Roleblocker: If the majority doesn't change, please roleblock YellowInk. | ||
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On July 03 2010 10:59 L wrote: Roleblocker acts during the night. We have 24 hours to talk about this. You are right, so I guess I would say if the RB has to leave before it is resolved go with this plan. Otherwise, wait it out until we are sure on what is the best plan. | ||
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We are forecasting our move. If I was mafia I would love that, because the only way it would work is if one of the three was the day 1 pick. Worse yet, we wouldn't know which it was till day 3. so we are trading 3 nights of RB for at most 1 mafia. As the GF, I know that I can recruit anyone besides those 3 players for the next 3 nights and they definitely won't be role blocked. We are kind of saying, hey GF these three players you can't recruit, but feel free to grab anyone else. I might be missing something, but it just seems to useful for the mafia to know that far in advance who we are after. With the first plan we are telegraphing our move, but only 1 day in advance and we know the result the next day. They won't know who our day 2 pick is going to be so they can't be certain it isn't one of the 2 mafia members they chose. sorry, thought of this as I went for my day[9] snack and decided to post it to see if I was off track on this. | ||
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Headed to be night all, catch up 2morrow. | ||
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In case of claim conflict, I see no viable plan to counter so except good old hard method of analytical scumhunting. This and luck seems to be the only real choices we have. Keep in mid though we can double lynch if needed. I had forgot the GF has to lives so hoping the mafia kill him isn't going to be helpful. The one defense I see against the mafia claiming to be DT is that they don't know who the GF is. they could be giving us the GF without realizing it. And I doubt the GF would attempt that since he would be targeted by the real DT the next night for sure. | ||
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I am headed to bed, I have read through the posts but will do so again and write up my thoughts as I am off tomorrow from work. | ||
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This is working on the assumption of 1 of each role, there could be more or less but I will take it as an average. of the 20 people we have 9 roles (2 anti-town) we also have 4 mason/lovers that may or may not overlap. if we do role claims we can expect ~11 townies and 7 blue roles when claiming. PROs - Mafia will be forced to blend and decide what roles to use, will probably need to claim later so as not draw attention to themselves. Will allow us to better direct blue roles Cons - Blues killed, blues recruited, some characters made useless (veteran and mad hatter to a degree), no way to confirm roles It is a risky play. If we net the GF first round then it would be worth it, but we don't have that assurance making this a big risk/reward play. I am a new player, but in this style of game no one has much experience. This makes it difficult because we can't look back and say well roleclaiming day 2 has been successful or failed. This applies to all of our plans. I think the big thing is to decide if a plan is useful or not. Currently due to the confusion the only real plan that is in use is the 1 mason roleclaim. The reason that worked is only 1 person (the mason) had to be on board for it to work. The issue with plans comes back again to not having a definitive way of deciding if a plan is good or bad. This is equally true of the mafia, which is why it is hard to find scum tells since they don't know if the plan is good for them or not. The GF doesn't know which is better either or which will make him less likely to be caught. Right now if we lynch 1 tonight and 2 the next 2 nights we have just over 1/3 chances of getting the GF. Now besides that we also have the blues, which means that a lot of the game is up to chance. If a plan doesn't give us better odds or more information than no plan then it is obviously a bad plan. Looking at the role claim Idea, it hurts the odds, but gives us more information. Since we can't verify that information, I have to think that it isn't worth the cost. | ||
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On July 06 2010 06:25 Hesmyrr wrote: Another concern of mine is that today's deadline is July 06 11:05, namely five hours from now. In order for this mass role-claim plan to be effective we need to have enough time for ALL people to claim, then organize the mess and confusion to specifically target unclear Townies; thus I propose an alternative: We mass-claim tomorrow immediately after the day begins, and vote for double lynch consecutively for two days. I know effectiveness of mass claim in this setup decreases over time, but I think this provision is necessary since partial claiming by select number of townies right before the day is about to end (followed by recruitable night) is kinda bad. I rather have one investigation off rather than none anyway. I have to leave at 7:10 so voting for Abenson. My reasoning is that, like some have said, he is confusing Townie and his probability of being godfather is just as equal as anyone else. Since I expect the game to reach critical point on d3 with all the mass claims, I rather take mysterious Joker card out of the deck before that time arrives. I agree with waiting, though I will leave it up to more experienced minds on if we should role claim tomorrow. | ||
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Thanks! | ||
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On July 06 2010 12:32 Divinek wrote: i started out coroner Thanks,that is interesting I wonder what if any other double roles we have.... | ||
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On July 07 2010 06:25 YellowInk wrote: BM if I find out you are town this game I'm going to ::headdesk:: To try to get town on track, is there anything we need to discuss tonight? I don't think there is unless there are still people on the roleclaim plan. Then I must dispel your notions. I kind of like the role claim plan, it seems that we are enter a do or die situation and this may be our last chance. If we don't get the GF or are very lucky with lynchs/blocks I don't see how we can fix things after tomorrow night. Of course I am a new player and may be missing something, don't you think it needs done before it is too late? | ||
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On July 07 2010 12:23 youngminii wrote: Lol okay in light of what just happened, I suggest the following strategy: We are fairly sure that I'm Detective and that citi.zen is GF. There is reasonable evidence that it is so. There is also the scumminess of BM's posts (why would he defend citi.zen after his blatant error?). He also tells DT to claim when I've already claimed. So, here's what I think. Jailer should jail me. I'll check BM. Roleblocker should block YI or some other person that people think is scum. That way, we can check BM and YI at once. I for one don't think YI is scum. I think BM might be scum. I think there's enough evidence to prove that I am really a DT and that citi.zen is a liar. I don't want to be roleblocked simply because that is wasting a DT check. I just wanted to point out I think this post lends credibility to youngminii's claim. 1. He hasn't been called on being the DT yet (except by the person he pointed out and that was obviously a false claim) The only way I see this working correctly is if he was the DT and was recruited last night since he would know it was unlikely to be a counter claim. 2. In this post he doesn't push for a double lynch. I think the mafia would need to utilize this play to force a double lynch to make it viable. Without it they are sacrificing 2 mafia for little gain. Would it make sense for us to ask if there are any other coroners, even if unlikely, that they pop tonight? | ||
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also, sorry if my previous post was confusing, I was trying to say that Young was most likely town since he didn't call for double lynch and not suggesting we should double lynch. Also for your list Chezinu, I believe zeks said Abenson was Townie so he should be green, not blue.... well unless lovers means blue in which case I should just shut up / | ||
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sorry Zeks my apologies! You are the mason, I had you confused with Divinek the lover who claimed and said Abenson was the other part of the pair. | ||
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On July 07 2010 13:13 YellowInk wrote: The town plan in summary: Do not roleclaim Lynch citi.zen Roleblock youngminii Jail youngminii No coroner usage Detectives spy on whomever you think is most likely to be godfather besides citi.zen ** Mad Hatter bomb Bill Murray Ignore Bill Murray's posts Scratch your head at Chezinu Smile if you're town, this game is probably about to end in victory ** This is because we want to plan for our worst case scenario - the 10% I alluded to earlier. If youngminii is playing us and he is in cahoots with citi.zen, we're still on godfather hunt. If citi.zen is really the godfather, we practically can't lose.+ Show Spoiler [Why we can't lose] + youngminii will get to keep getting to DT people and the mafia won't be able to target their hits effectively. After 2-3 nights following, if he hasn't found any scum, youngminii will give us a list of confirmed townies that he'll reveal which will ensure our victory even if he gets killed. We'll be able to mop up with a double lynch endgame. All of this is even assuming we have no other roles in the game besides 1 jailer and youngminii as our DT. I'm sure we have much more than this. Just want to say, nothing has changed since this plan, and it seems like the best. The one modification being talked about is if we should RB youngmini. I think both methods are about even. I am 99% sure he is town, so leaving it off him so we can get an extra check in while RBing someone else makes sense. Other than that caveat, only the second item on the list is currently passed. I would recomend all blues follow this revised plan. | ||
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If there is no kill then suspicion falls on youngminii If there is a kill then most likely we need to keep youngminii jailed and start systematically DTing /RBing suspected mafia. Now our RB died, and it is such a powerful role I highly doubt we had 2, but maybe the dream catcher caught it. | ||
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My early #1 thought was that YellowInk could be the recruit as well, but assuming Ace followed the RB plan and RBed YI then they wouldn't have gotten the kill (which they did). of course he could have been recruited later, but his actions haven't seemed to change so I doubt it. | ||
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On July 10 2010 12:29 DCLXVI wrote: where is darth? I think he was the mafia target. | ||
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On July 10 2010 22:54 zeks wrote: i would've had to be RBed to be recruited in which case i would've had to get RBed by the roleblocker and recruited the same night note that both the roleblocker and GF have no way of communicating with each other The roleblocker is dead as well (night 2 I believe) so the % chance of this happening is so low I think it is worth the gamble (we can have DT verify it later if needed). since it would have had to happen night 1 or 2, and if the plan was followed night 1 YI was Rbed there is ~ a 1/200 chance that it could have occurred. | ||
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My only worry is that he might be a high priority target for the mafia Thoughts? | ||
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On July 12 2010 09:27 DCLXVI wrote: Bye YI one less active, productive poster congrats town I don't know if we even deserve to win anymore. Very lucky DT check won us the game (hopefully) Dont forget the modkill of the traitor/mafia as well. | ||
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On July 12 2010 11:17 Chezinu wrote: Hit List Updated: 2. 3. 5. BloodyC0bbler 18. 19. rastaban You guys are really good at this game. You are doing great! If this is accurate I am all for a double lynch of Myself and BC. I need to double check to make sure that it makes sense though. | ||
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On July 12 2010 21:33 zeks wrote: maybe AFJ planned to be modkilled so the bomb would go off? :S dunno kinda gay w/e if so that would be a hilarious play. getting some extra kills in. | ||
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That gives us this list 1. Chezinu - Dream Catcher/Hatter No counter claim ~75% confirmed 4. zeks - Mason (No counter claim - confirmed) 5. Thegilaboy (BloodyC0bbler) - Townie/Mafia 7. Bill Murray - Jailer/ Vet (DT confirmed) 10. DCLXVI - Townie/Mafia 11. Hesmyrr - jailed by BM 2 nights in a row (N1 recruit possibility but very slim statistically 95% confirmed if BM is town) 12. youngminii - DT (No counter claim, gave us GF - confirmed) 19. rastaban - Townie/Mafia Possibles: 5. Thegilaboy (BloodyC0bbler) - Townie/Mafia 10. DCLXVI - Townie/Mafia 19. rastaban - Townie/Mafia If DT checks BC as is the plan then if he is town we can double lynch DC and myself, if he is red then we get a confirmed mafia and can decide if it is better to go for a double lynch and and investigate the last one or not. If BM Jails YoungMini then we are guaranteed at least these 2 DT checks so we should be fine. I think this is pretty much the plan everyone is already stating so I am not realy adding much I just wanted to fact check it and make sure that it works out. If I was wrong and DCLXVI is confirmed then this should be even quicker. | ||
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worst case right now is 5/2 after night kill, I think we got one mafia with the 3 that just died so probably 6/1 we have to kill at least 1 mafia tomorrow if we didn't get 1 tonight. lets say worse case, that chez is mafia after 2x lynch tomorrow we would have 4/1 and then 3/1 after night kill. which would be enough to hang Chez if we were wrong about him. The only way this doesn't work is if zekz, BM, youngminii, are the goons. If that is so then we probably have already lost. | ||
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I think the plan can still work as long as we get vote 2x lynch tomorrow. worse case say you hang me and C and D are mafia you would have 4-2, and then 3-2 the next day after night kills. execute both of them and it should be a win (plus you could DT someone else as well just in case.) We just have to make sure that the double lynch goes through. | ||
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5 are left tomorrow: youngminii, zeks, DCLXVI, BM DTed: BloodyC0bbler They can then lynch BC if he is mafia. once again the only way it should fail is if Young is a goon. The plan seems solid. | ||
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On July 13 2010 03:24 Bill Murray wrote: don't know why people are saying hesmyrr is 95% or something. he could have been recruited night 0 statistically, the odds of him being recruited on night 0 are 1/19. 1/19 = just a fraction over 5% which means he had a 94.xxx% chance of not being recruited. We also know that L was recruited either night 1 or night 0, if L was night 0 then there is a 100% chance he wasn't recruited. so he either 100% townie or 95% townie, if you combine those you actually get an even higher chance he is townie. Now of course based on his playstyle and citizens recruit methods that number could change due to personal preference, but statistically speaking these numbers are right. | ||
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Chance he was recruited: 1/19 = 5.263% Chance he is townie 18/19 = 94.74% because 1 out of 19 people were recruited meaning 18 ot of 19 people were townie then I think we should still be wary, but 94.74% are the kind of odds I like. | ||
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On July 13 2010 04:23 zeks wrote: If we analyze L's posting behaviour we should be able to tell whether he got recruited 0 or 1. If we come to a conclusion that he was recruited at night 1 we lynch Hesmyrr. Wait so BM is vet + jk? The problem is that L was traitor, so regardless of when he was recruited his posts should have had the same agenda, the winning of the mafia. BM is most likely JK, or someone out there is. I think he is claiming vet sometimes to confuse the mafia from targeting him. We know he is blue so that should be good enough, if he is jk then the vet is probably hidden, if he is vet then jk is still hidden. as long as the jk keeps youngminii alive to night we should have a town win regardless of if, they his the jk tonight. | ||
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This was my first mafia game and I was Townie. anyone mind commenting on things that I did or didn't do that I should work on to improve? Thanks. | ||
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On July 14 2010 00:55 YellowInk wrote: Mafia got incredibly unlucky here. If the GF can stay under the radar till day 5 or so, it's practically unwinnable for town with the number of blues we had. This is why I was convinced we had at least two roleblockers - how can you honestly expect the GF to be found by the midgame? You need some way to draw the game out and have a reasonable chance for a town win without finding the GF in the early game. This kind of setup is just really swingy. Since mafia hadn't conceded and BM being ridiculous, when I was lynched I was convinced youngminii was mafia. I figured we were looking at a mafia victory. With all the lying that was going on in the town, I don't see how we could have won without the streak of luck even if it were a level game. Since most of you wouldn't tell me in thread, I'm curious what convinced you guys I was mafia? I thought you were mafia day 1, but after that (I assumed Ace RBed you) I thought you were in the clear. I voted for you the day of the lynch as a place holder vote and when I came back you had already been railroaded. I was going to switch my vote since I didn't see any reason to lynch you but by then there was no way to sway everyone else and it fit the plan so I went with it. | ||
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