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1. Chezinu
2. BrownBear
3. YellowInk
4. zeks - Mason
5. BloodyC0bbler
7. Bill Murray - Jailkeeper
10. DCLXVI
11. Hesmyrr - Jailed twice
12. youngminii - DT
18. AcrossFiveJulys
19. rastaban
So with 4/11 essentially cleared, that leaves 7!
1. Chezinu - claims Dream Catcher? No one else has claimed DC
2. BrownBear
3. YellowInk
5. BloodyC0bbler
10. DCLXVI
18. AcrossFiveJulys
19. rastaban
Then with the remaining 6. The only roles that haven't been filled are Mad Hatter and Vet. If everything has made sense up till now then out of the 6 there should be 2 goons, a bomber, a vet, and 2 green/blue. Did we ever have a bomber/vet come forward?
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well hesmyrr could be the N0 recruit, but that is unlikely, granted that you believe BM and his constantly changing roleclaiming.
I was pretty much cleared by Ace's death post, if you would just read the thread...
On July 11 2010 08:32 YellowInk wrote:
Since Ace roleblocked DCLXVI on night 2, you can also know that DCLXVI is town since if DCLXVI was even the night 2 recruit, the mafia KP would have been blocked since recruitment occurs before mafia KP.
and we may not have every role so the people who roleclaim now are in no way cleared.
I will throw my vote on myself to prevent modkills,but I should be back at least 2 hours before the deadline.
currently most suspicious people in my book:
BB, BC, rastaban
maybe yellowink too but he at least reads the thread and thinks logically, which puts him way above many of the other posters
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Good point. zeks and one other unknown Mason is confirmed Townie since they can't be recruited, and have not been counter claimed for the entire game.
Assumingyoungminii is DT, we get cascade of clears. Bill Murray becomes clear, and because Godfather supposedly died in d2, DCLXVI also becomes clear since he was roleblocked n2. Not completely but semi-confirmed clear is Hesmyrr, who has also been immune to recruitment with exception of n0.
That leaves Chezinu, BrownBear, YellowInk, BloodyC0bbler, AcrossFiveJulys, and rastaban (6 players) to target. After second mason claim, the list is further listed to five. With two double lynches, is this not autowin?
[TOWN] 6
zeks, youngminii, Bill Murray, DCLXVI, Hesmyrr, second mason
[TOWN OR MAFIA] 5
Chezinu, BrownBear, YellowInk, BloodyC0bbler, AcrossFiveJulys, rastaban MINUS second mason.
There are two mafia. (9-2)
Today we lynch anyone out of TOWN OR MAFIA list. Bill Murray jail youngminii, youngminii investigates one person in TOWN OR MAFIA list, Chezinu switches his bomb to players in TOWN OR MAFIA list.
Assuming we fail today and makes two mislynches (6-2):
[TOWN] 6
zeks, youngminii, DCLXVI, Hesmyrr, second mason, n3 investigation
[TOWN OR MAFIA] 2
living two players
Another double lynch on those two players d4 for the win. Of course this plan assumes I am town, but even if I was recruited n0 this plan is concrete since it leaves me alone against rest of 5 confirmed Townies. Thus lynch me d5 for the win.
VOTE DOUBLE LYNCH
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^^
SECOND MASON SHOULD CLAIM WITH A KEY. My scenario neglects the case mafia hit Chezinu, but with Chezinu switching his bomb to player in [Town or Mafia] list NKing Chezinu only acceleates the process.
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Oh wait, it's 6-3 on n4 but if Chezinu switches all of his bombs to Town or Mafia faction it won't matter much. Actually everyone try to pick holes in my plan as best as you can, because currently, it looks like town win.
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Oh wait, it's 6-3 on n4 but if Chezinu switches all of his bombs to Town or Mafia faction it won't matter much. Actually everyone try to pick holes in my plan as best as you can, because currently, it looks like town win.**
Never mind. TOWN OR MAFIA players become reduced to two because two gets lynched, and one becomes clear by DT investigation. I am somewhat excited and is trying to pick holes apart as I can.
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Just to throw this out there. If Bill Murray really is the jailkeeper (I think there's a decent chance he is the vet or a townie, only BM/youngminii know this for sure), then I'd put Hesmyrr in the 90% likely to be town list. It's unlikely in any case that Hesmyrr was the night 0 recruit.
First note that L's plan was a pro-mafia plan. He would have done this regardless if he were just the traitor or the n0 goon recruit. However, note that citi.zen is known as a strong and experienced player. I find it unlikely that upon seeing L present his plan that he would have chosen to recruit L. Even if L is town and not traitor, let him wallow in his flawed logic (which obviously it ended up as not) and help the mafia anyway. Sure, it's possible L was recruited later, I just think it's unlikely.
This means that if BM really is jailkeep and jailed Hesmyrr night 1 and 2, Hesmyrr is clear.
Also, DCLXVI is clear as has been stated both by myself and him. DCLXVI was marked innocent by Ace upon his death. Ace roleblocked DCLXVI on night 2, so DCLXVI was not the n0, n1, or n2 recruit. citi.zen was lynched on d3, so DCLXVI is town.
Also, Hesmyrr, double lynch does not work the way I think you think it works. Passing double lynch (which means majority votes for it) means that the next day we get two votes that we must put on different people. Double lynch does not benefit us unless youngminii dies. Each day we're going to get a new confirmed townie, have a confirmed townie hit, and lynch another unconfirmed townie. This will result in a swift victory for the town since we have 4 confirmed townies. If the scum hit youngminii, he will give us his final DT result in his death, so we will still have 4 confirmed. We'd then pass a double lynch to take the victory in the following two days lynching 5 unconfirmed people and having two confirmed hit by mafia over the 3 days also resulting in a victory. If we use a double lynch now, we can fall just short of victory if mafia gets really lucky.
Assuming we have a jailkeeper at all, by the numbers, the game is currently sealed (just barely) since we have another mason to claim excepting the danger of the mad hatter blowing up any of our confirmed townies. We are not in a rush to lynch people via double lynch. We want to ensure the mad hatter keeps the bombs on people who are unconfirmed. Also of note, if we assume L was the n0 recruit, by the numbers (which youngminii and BM only know), we have the game sealed +1 if BM is the jailkeeper since this also clears Hesmyrr. However, we should continue to play the game as safely as possible to secure the town victory. A mad hatter can mess things up if we're not careful.
Now, lets get focused on the people who are likely to be scum and hang them (one at a time).
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Oh that's true, I don't think presence of Chezinu and delayed double lynch don't change much though.
9-2
Bill Murray killed.
7-2
[TOWN] 6
zeks, youngminii, DCLXVI, Hesmyrr, second mason, n3 investigation
[TOWN OR MAFIA] 3
living three players
youngminii killed.
4-1
[TOWN] 5
zeks, DCLXVI, Hesmyrr, second mason, n3 investigation
[TOWN OR MAFIA] 1
living one players
Town lock.
== Worst case scenario where Mad Hatter has placed both of his bombs on Town side ==
Before mafia hit, Chezinu switches one of his bomb on Town side to "Town or Mafia" side. Chenizu and DT also announce their targets to prevent stacking, so DT don't end up investigating player with the bomb. Mafia hit Chenizu. In worst case scenario, Jailkeeper (not DT since Chezinu CAN move one bomb) and one "Town or Mafia" blows up.
Let us assume second mason claim and one player claims mason. There are 5 TOWN OR MAFIA players.
One is lynched today.
Chezinu is killed.
One gets blown up.
One gets investigated.
[TOWN] 6
zeks, youngminii, DCLXVI, Hesmyrr, second mason, n3 investigation
[TOWN OR MAFIA] 1
One living player
Since double lynch, kill final living player and Hesmyrr for the town lock.
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Of course this plan only works if Bill Murray is indeed jailkeeper; Bill Murray, having confirmed as Town, you can swear that you are not fake-claiming jailkeeper correct?
YellowInk, with double lynch we can outpace mafia kill and prevent mafia from somehow overcoming current situation later on. I think it would be highly beneficial for us to vote for double lynch today so we can use it tomorrow. Can you specifically explain a scenario where my plan fails (minus youngminii not being DT) so you can justify your opinion not to use double lynch?
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We want to ensure the mad hatter keeps the bombs on people who are unconfirmed.
Current situation, whether Chezinu's bomb is lost or not doesn't matter much; only thing it matters is if it is placed on one of the "Town" side players, in which case Chezinu can minimize the damage by switching it to one of the unconfirmed players before mafia hit goes through.
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On July 12 2010 02:15 Hesmyrr wrote:
Of course this plan only works if Bill Murray is indeed jailkeeper; Bill Murray, having confirmed as Town, you can swear that you are not fake-claiming jailkeeper correct?
YellowInk, with double lynch we can outpace mafia kill and prevent mafia from somehow overcoming current situation later on. I think it would be highly beneficial for us to vote for double lynch today so we can use it tomorrow. Can you specifically explain a scenario where my plan fails (minus youngminii not being DT) so you can justify your opinion not to use double lynch? Sure. We lynch rastaban, who for whatever reason never trusted youngminii/BM despite it being our best route for victory. He had his bombs on youngminii and BM who then immediately die. Town can definitely lose from this kind of position.
This is an extreme example, but there are other similar examples that can be made. This is also not a commentary on rastaban's choices or thoughts, just giving an example of someone who might get lynched since the town can't seem to settle on someone to hang.
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Oh yeah, there is second (original) mad hatter. I'll have to think about this a little... I think the deadliness of MH will diminish slightly tomorrow with one bomb having moved to unconfirmed, though. And hopefully the person about to be lynched will claim mad hatter?
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For the record, I'm not convinced we hung the godfather. I can't imagine a game filled with this many strong players continues to fail to see so many things that are obvious. Unfortunately we were not given the tools to counter a straightforward mafia play, so we must simply stay true to the most likely path to victory.
As I've presented numerous significant arguments and the town seems intent on lynching me (Hesmyrr, youngminii, zeks) without expressing any cause, I'm going to try just being quiet for the next 9 hours and see if you guys can just come to a reasonable conclusion on your own. I'll answer any questions asked directly of me, but beyond that, this inaction is maddening and I want no more part of pushing this boulder up a mountain.
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Someone
Someone
Someone
Someone
Someone
zeks (Mason)
Someone (Mason)
DCLXVI
youngminii (Goon)
someone (Goon)
someone (Godfather)
I do see above possibility (with Mafia nearing his victory) where we are 8-3. However, in current situation with coroners dead, what can we do? Either we decide youngminii is DT or not, then we run with it. One path leads to doom, another to salvation. And I rather go with the scenario that gives Town logical chance of victory rather than stumbling around in absolute darkness.
If the town decides to go along with our plan, should we have another surviving Mad Hatter claim? (YI did bring up a good point about this.) We can just delay his lynch until he managed to move all of his bombs to the unconfirmed players.
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This means that if BM really is jailkeep and jailed Hesmyrr night 1 and 2, Hesmyrr is clear.
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i still wouldn't cay CLEAR, but he's relatively clear, sure.
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also, hesmyrr, thanks for taking over. i've got a class today, so i won't be back until around 6pm EST... + a 15 minute drive and picking up some KFC or something 
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On July 12 2010 02:59 Hesmyrr wrote:
Someone
Someone
Someone
Someone
Someone
zeks (Mason)
Someone (Mason)
DCLXVI
youngminii (Goon)
someone (Goon)
someone (Godfather)
I do see above possibility (with Mafia nearing his victory) where we are 8-3. However, in current situation with coroners dead, what can we do? Either we decide youngminii is DT or not, then we run with it. One path leads to doom, another to salvation. And I rather go with the scenario that gives Town logical chance of victory rather than stumbling around in absolute darkness.
If the town decides to go along with our plan, should we have another surviving Mad Hatter claim? (YI did bring up a good point about this.) We can just delay his lynch until he managed to move all of his bombs to the unconfirmed players.
The issue being is if there is a second unconfirmed hatter, he should only pop up in the event he is about to be lynched. The moment he claims it puts him in danger of being hit. Killing potentially 0 - 2 people off the town list based on current allocation of bombs. Factor in that Mafia most likely only has 1 kp based on last nights hit (unless the gf is still alive then possibly more now), then we should be hesitant to have hatters claim. Hatters as well as double lynches at this point give the mafia a way to get extra KP that they shouldn't have at this stage of the game. Double lynches should be saved until we need them, as with a dt clearing people off a list the last reds will be found shortly, and top that off with a claimed hatter already dropping bombs on that list, we can lynch him if need be to kill 2 people off that list as well (effectively killing three off the unconfirmed list).
If the godfather is still alive, we would know it within the next day. Mafia would be risking far to much at this point by hiding any KP it has, so after tonight we will know 100% if our DT is legit based on night kills.
Stress, if we have a second Hatter, place your bombs/move them among the unconfirmed player list, but don't come out into the open. If you come out too early it will add to mafia KP provided our DT is legit.
I would advise against double lynching for the moment as we can effectively use a hatter to do a double lynch (if chez's claim is legit) to kill three people off the unconfirmed list, instead of arguing over killing which two. With four off that list in the span of todays lynch + tommorrow town would win in two more lynches regardless, or could double lynch at that point. IT also saves the double lynches in the weird event that our DT isn't legit, and gives the towns a mean to actually save itself if the worst case scenario arrives.
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On July 12 2010 02:43 YellowInk wrote:
For the record, I'm not convinced we hung the godfather. I can't imagine a game filled with this many strong players continues to fail to see so many things that are obvious. Unfortunately we were not given the tools to counter a straightforward mafia play, so we must simply stay true to the most likely path to victory.
As I've presented numerous significant arguments and the town seems intent on lynching me (Hesmyrr, youngminii, zeks) without expressing any cause, I'm going to try just being quiet for the next 9 hours and see if you guys can just come to a reasonable conclusion on your own. I'll answer any questions asked directly of me, but beyond that, this inaction is maddening and I want no more part of pushing this boulder up a mountain.
If your not convinced that we killed the godfather then chances are as of tonight, town has lost. I say that because it would mean the GF would have had time to a) recruit our jail keeper and b) as of tonight recruit the dt (provided neither were red already) giving the mafia the ability to fake clear/convict people while still growing.
At this stage of the game, based on current town beliefs, a surviving GF means GG. We cannot afford to think like this.
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i wasnt recruited, so... :p
this is assuming that i wasnt jailed in relation to being recruited, and that on n1, n2, or whatever nights he has been recruiting, that he wasnt roleblocked and his target wasnt jailed.
you are not taking every variable into consideration here
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EPT
