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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Quick Analysis of AFJ:
Post History:
Gives pros and cons of mass role claim, but is ardently opposed
Nominates amber[Light] for mayor(disses me)
Explain his vote
Comment
Clarification
Comment
Spam
Spam
Gives a Day 2 plan
add-on to previous post
Question
Responds to Opz(disses me again)
AFJ has been quite active this game, with a mix of larger content rich posts, and smaller comments and sum-ups. In Incogs game he was quite active as well, with a fairly similar mix of posts as well. In that game I pegged him as mafia, particularly due to the summing up of whats happening, and commenting on whats happening(without leveling an opinion). He ended up being town in that game, and as far as I can tell, he's playing quite similarly(this doesn't mean much though, given that if he was mafia, the goal would be to play quite similarly).
I get a similar read to Jayme from AFJ, not necessarily pro-town at this point, but no scum tells. except with added meaningless posts that sum up and comment on what's happening
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Somehow I accidentally posted. That last paragraph should read:
I get a similar read from AFJ as from Jayme, not necessarily pro-town at this point, but no scum tells. Although with added meaningless posts that sum up and comment on what's happening. I'd like to see more of the content rich posts from AFJ, and less of the contentless posts. Again, we'll see if the quality can remain high.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
FUUUUU, my browser just crashed. Abridged version:
Given that there is no posting at night, we need to start coming up with our plan for night actions well in advance. It's possible we'll even need to have two separate plans, one if the lynchee flips red, one if green, because we won't have a chance to talk after the lynch goes through. However, one plan will likely do for now.
We likely still have another vig in the game(Moody?), probably 2 pseudo detectives, and we may still have a doctor(seem unlikely. who would it even be, Molly Weasley?). However, given the very prevalent use of Expelliarmus in the books, it seems likely that we have a number of roleblockers in the game. Ideally we can think up some way to avoid overlapping our roleblocking, or hitting townies. Hitting townies is unavoidable at this point though, and it's worth hitting townies to potentially roleblock a mafia. Hesmyrr had a strategy posted a few pages back to avoid overlap, and I think it a good one. For reference:+ Show Spoiler +I propose alternative plan. Below is the player list: Subversion
Jugan
stormtemplar
Jayme
acrossfivejulys
johnnyspazz
lakrismamma
Radfield
LuDwig-
JeeJee
Hesmyrr
YellowInk
~OpZ~
zeks
~Roffles
DCLXVI
ElyAs
Thegilaboy
LaXerCannon
Amber[LighT]
Abenson The person with investigative powers in red tag investigate MoMThe person with investigative powers in green tag investigate pardonerThe person with investigative powers in blue tag investigate someone else.Much harder to counter, I think.
We also likely have a few occlumens, but they're completely useless from a town perspective. It's possible that mafia could have access to Occlemency, but that would go quite contrary to the book, and also basically give mafia another Godfather. So the Occlumens are likely pro-town and hence are rather useless. They do however tell us one thing; the mafia almost certainly have access to legilimancy, What would the mafia need legilimancy for though? Blue sniping perhaps, but also perhaps to find Harry Potter so they can avoid killing him. Surely we all agree that the second Horcrux(Nagini being the first) is Harry.
This means, that just like the book, harry has to die before Voldemort can be killed. However, my guess is that Harry is kind of a Super-Veteran, in that he has two lives, so even if he is lynched, he will probably still remain in the game. This fits perfectly with the lore, although it is possible that a Harry lynch would actually kill him, and that perhaps he needs to be the recipient of an Avada Kadavra or Mafia KP.
Either way though, at some point harry will have to step up and out himself to be "killed" in order that we can kill Voldemort. However, the longer Harry remains hidden, the more likely it is that the mafia will accidentally "kill" him for us. So there is certainly no reason to roleclaim Harry unless Nagini is already dead and we have leads on Voldemort.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
what the hell does that even mean, not pro-town but no scum tells? last i checked, if you're not pro-town, you're scum.
It means that at this point in the game it's very difficult to tell if someone is pro-town, as mafia should be playing pro-town. As the game goes on, you have more and more info to work with, and can get a more solid pro-town read on someone. But it IS possible to tell if someone is acting scummy at this point in the game.
Basically, someone can be scummy after only a few posts, but it takes many posts to get the pro-town seal of approval.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On June 25 2010 09:30 zeks wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2010 06:48 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:On June 25 2010 06:37 zeks wrote:On June 25 2010 03:27 Bill Murray wrote:
"He also speaks about BM not allowing name claiming (which he does now allow...or doesn't again?)"
I don't mind name claiming if you are not a mason Hi guys, I don't see why we're not starting to do this right now? because it gives death eaters an extremely easy way to hit blues, and is an even worse idea now that one of our doctors is dead. the benefit for the town is it might put death eaters into an awkward position having to choose names. Also note that masons will either be lying about their name or not claim at all and you have a messy situation to sort through for the town while death eaters are picking off blues! sounds like a wonderful idea to me. Why do you think the death eaters will know who the blues are? I would've never thought Charley Weasley would end up a green. Although I admit Madame Pomfrey made sense being a medic. If I'm not mistake a mason can confirm his status simply by PMing someone? And I think for the death eaters to choose names is way more dangerous than we think.
Reasons that nameclaiming is a bad thing:
It's either outs Harry Potter or causes him to lie
It does expose our blues: Moody, Tonks, Scrimgeor, Harry and Hermione are almost certainly blue roles if they're in the game. Kingsley and Pomfrey were obvious blues. Certain players are likely not blue(molly and ginny weasley, luna, anyone random from harry's year). While it doesn't guarantee to out the blues, it certianly gives mafia a lot of information
Given that BM has stated he doesn't want this game to go the way of Caller's ROTK(which was broken because of name claiming) and given that the list of names has been removed, it seems very likely that he will provide the mafia with a safe list. Again, he stated he doesn't want name claiming breaking his game, and this is a sure fire way he can avoid it. This isn't a for sure, but it seems likely.
I just don't see it as worth the risk. We probably have a lot of firepower on the town side, and as long as people get active, we should be able to direct it reasonably well.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Jayme posted about 5 hours ago:
On June 25 2010 04:46 Jayme wrote
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Opz, you're indicating that I actively ran for Pardoner, when this is not the case. I said I was fine with pardoner, but that MoM should go to someone with more time. You'll recall that I didn't even run and that Amber[light] dragged me along with his train. Frankly, I'd like to see Amber[light] post quite a bit more. He has 3 vote power and needs to make sure those votes hit the mark.
We're running out of Day 2 time, and we need to focus our efforts not just on the lynch, but also on night actions. In fact, we really only need to focus on the roleblocks and investigations. Vigs should probably be holding their shots, and medics/occlumens can do their thing without input.
Presumably Amber and myself were rolechecked last night and both came back green. At least I assume so since no one is hollering in the thread about reds. However, it's possible that we either didn't get checked, or that the rolechecks are inconclusive. Moving down the list of suspicious people, my top candidates for a rolecheck are YellowInk and JeeJee.
As far as roleblocking, anyone suspicious should be targeted using the same strat as last night.
Lynching:
Players who are active: Amber, Hesmyrr, Opz, AFJ, Jspazz, zeks, YellowInk, Radfield, Thegilaboy, Roffles
Players who are mostly active: JeeJee, Jayme, Elyas
Players who are somewhat inactive(or worse): Jugan, Stormtemplar, Ludwig, Abenson, Lakrismamma,
It's going to be very very difficult to do this with this many players not posting. We've had only a few pages of posts in the last 36hours. But I'm a bit sick of lynching inactive players, because they almost always end up town. So we have to work with what we have.
I think the best way right now is to look for players who follow this pattern: Active on Day 1, much less activity on Day 2. Mafia are being given a free ride right now, and have very little incentive to post. One person jumps out at me as following this trend, but probably only because I looked through his posting history. Jayme.
Jayme if your out there, you need to pick up the Day 2 slack or I'm going to be voting for you. I think everyone should be looking for players who follow this trend. Moderately active on Day 1, sharp decline in posting on Day 2. When I'm on later tonight I'll search for more candidates, but hopefully everyone else can search as well.
Does this seem logical to people? Yes, we're letting those players like ludwig, lakrismamma and Stormtemplar slide, but BM is talking about modkills anyways, so they'll likely be tossed for us.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Should remember to refresh before posting.
Again, people seem to think I pushed hard for the pardoner role. I'd like to see those posts of mine, because they don't exist. Obviously anyone pushing for the pardoner role is insta-scummy, because it's a useless role in town hands. I stated that I didn't have enough time to play effectively as MoM, but I was fine with Pardoner because obviously pardoner takes no extra effort. Please don't link me and Yellowink together on that front. He pushed hard for an elected role, and missed it by a couple minutes.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
So it seems at least two more people have been dug up who fit the Day1/Day2 criteria. Zeks and Elyas. From the two of them I'm heavily in favor of Elyas at this point. After being fairly active day 1, he only posts originally on day 2 to defend himself from Jeejee, then disappears for the rest of Day 2, only to pop back in and defend himself after Roffles points him out. Smacks of someone who is following the thread, but not posting.
He also has a few more newbie gems like:Yeah, I'm starting to think that my lack of experience makes me go in a wrong direction, but I don't really know everyone's playstyles, so I'm doing with what I have (Sure, I could go and analyze previous games but it looks like experienced players are good at changing personas and such...)
This is to preface his analysis post.
If people insist on voting off inactives, Abenson is fine as he seems least likely to get modkilled/replaced. He'll hang around, but still not post much content. For now though, I'm voting Elyas.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
I think the likely answer is that Jeejee and zeks can talk to each other. Most likely the Weasley twins. Or they are mafia.... but I doubt Jeejee would post so plainly if that was the case.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Good god, I just noticed that we need a majority. Awful.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On June 26 2010 10:03 Bill Murray wrote:Show nested quote +9. If a majority is not reached, whoever gets the most votes will be lynched. In the case of a tie, whatever received the most votes first will be lynched. next vote wins
Phew, I could've sworn that was the case, but I saw your "with 18 left its 10 to lynch" post and it threw me. Then on the front page it says this:
7. A lynch suffers the requirement of a simple majority. If there is a majority beforehand, the day will go into twilight.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
OK, we seriously need to sum this up.
So Abenson is likely Draco Malfoy
Claimers
Elyas Mad Eye Moody
Chezinu Snape
JeeJee Investigative Role
Jugan is pretty sure Amber[light] is a Death Eater
JeeJee claims he has found Nagini.
Pomfrey and Shacklebolt both die on night one, but mafia only have a KP of 1. So unless mafia used their Avada Kadavra on night 1, one of them died by other means. It makes fairly decent sense that Pomfrey would have protected Hesmyrr(PGO) and hence been killed. Night two Hesmyrr dies, and doesn't take anyone with him. Either Voldy killed Hesmyrr himself, or a medic protected a death eater, or a third more unlikely scenario of Voldy killing him, AND a medic protecting a dt who investigated. Option one and two are far more likely then three, but I'm still not sure the medic should claim, since option 1 is most likely in my eyes(it only involves one person, not two or three). So medic, if you protected someone, hang onto that info but watch that person carefully, and consider that it may be advantageous to reveal that info at some point.
Moving forward we obviously lynch whomever Jeejee picked out, then lynch jeejee if that person flips green or blue. Although maybe not, since it's possible that the bus driver swapped the person whom Jeejee investigated. If this is the case Bus Driver, you need to let us know, because whomever you swapped with Jeejee's person is the real Nagini.
I'm really not sure why Jeejee is playing coy with us though and not revealing the name of nagini. It's possible the Death Eaters could kill him right now if they have Dayvig powers, although presumably that would out a different death eater(though one less valuable than Nagini).
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On June 27 2010 21:13 ~OpZ~ wrote:
I'm in agreement with JeeJee already that Lakrismamma should indeed be lynched. If we get a majority on him fast enough, we have PLENTY of time to discuss AFTER we see if he is red or green/blue...
What post are you agreeing with here Opz? Where did Jeejee push for Lakrismamma?
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Or am I to assume that you two can communicate outside of the thread and that you're saying Lakrismamma is nagini?
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Alternate theory: You cannot communicate with Jeejee outside of the thread, which means you are mafia, because you KNOW that lakris is nagini, and just accidentally outed yourself. I presume this is not the case, but hopefully Jeejee can confirm.
Unless I'm completely missing a post by JeeJee, but I sure can't find it if I am.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On June 27 2010 22:59 Thegilaboy wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2010 22:14 Radfield wrote:On June 27 2010 21:13 ~OpZ~ wrote:
I'm in agreement with JeeJee already that Lakrismamma should indeed be lynched. If we get a majority on him fast enough, we have PLENTY of time to discuss AFTER we see if he is red or green/blue... What post are you agreeing with here Opz? Where did Jeejee push for Lakrismamma? Yeah did I miss something? I don't see a post with JeeJee pushing for LM specifically. Just posts saying that he has indeed found Nagini and that we still need to find a hidden horocrux. Confused by this though: Show nested quote +On June 27 2010 22:27 Radfield wrote:
Alternate theory: You cannot communicate with Jeejee outside of the thread, which means you are mafia, because you KNOW that lakris is nagini, and just accidentally outed yourself. I presume this is not the case, but hopefully Jeejee can confirm.
Unless I'm completely missing a post by JeeJee, but I sure can't find it if I am. Why would Opz push for Nagini's lynch if he is DE like your alternate theory states? I don't think I'm missing any strange rule here, but I'm pretty sure the DEs and Voldy want those horocruxes to stay alive.
Presumably at some point all DE's will turn on their compatriates. Nothing makes you look like a good townie like nailing a Death Eater.
Again, I think this is unlikely, but unless Jeejee and Opz can talk outside the thread, I don't see where Opz is getting his information. I suppose another theory is that Opz also has legilimancy, and also happened to check lakris last night, but that also seems unlikely.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On June 27 2010 23:25 ~OpZ~ wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2010 23:20 Radfield wrote:On June 27 2010 22:59 Thegilaboy wrote:On June 27 2010 22:14 Radfield wrote:On June 27 2010 21:13 ~OpZ~ wrote:
I'm in agreement with JeeJee already that Lakrismamma should indeed be lynched. If we get a majority on him fast enough, we have PLENTY of time to discuss AFTER we see if he is red or green/blue... What post are you agreeing with here Opz? Where did Jeejee push for Lakrismamma? Yeah did I miss something? I don't see a post with JeeJee pushing for LM specifically. Just posts saying that he has indeed found Nagini and that we still need to find a hidden horocrux. Confused by this though: On June 27 2010 22:27 Radfield wrote:
Alternate theory: You cannot communicate with Jeejee outside of the thread, which means you are mafia, because you KNOW that lakris is nagini, and just accidentally outed yourself. I presume this is not the case, but hopefully Jeejee can confirm.
Unless I'm completely missing a post by JeeJee, but I sure can't find it if I am. Why would Opz push for Nagini's lynch if he is DE like your alternate theory states? I don't think I'm missing any strange rule here, but I'm pretty sure the DEs and Voldy want those horocruxes to stay alive. Presumably at some point all DE's will turn on their compatriates. Nothing makes you look like a good townie like nailing a Death Eater. Again, I think this is unlikely, but unless Jeejee and Opz can talk outside the thread, I don't see where Opz is getting his information. I suppose another theory is that Opz also has legilimancy, and also happened to check lakris last night, but that also seems unlikely. HEY SMARTGUY... IF I WAS DE, I tried to lynch him yesterday!! HIGH FIVE!!!!
Are you trying to say that this clears you of all suspicion for the rest of the game? Of course not. I'm not quite sure what you're saying with all your /sarcasm etc, but I think it's that you also have Legilimancy, and also checked lakris. Given your suspicion of him yesterday, this makes more sense then I originally thought.
Surely you agree though that if a rolecheck came back on a death eater, and that death eater was exposed, then the other DE's would be quick to jump on the lynch bandwagon. Of course, I doubt they would have done so yesterday right after he made that post, which gives you a lot of cred. But still, it's important to lay out the three ways that you could have known who Jeejee was talking about. Mason, DE or Legilimans.
I'm not insinuating that you're a DE at this point, and frankly I get a fairly pro-town vibe from you. But the facts are all still there, you apparently knew jeejee was talking about lakris, you posted after he did, and you never mentioned anything about being a dt until pressed.
If you're saying I should have just ignored all these things, then you're not nearly as pro-town as I suspected. No one gets a free pass at this point.
Anyways, I do understand  and depending on how Lakris flips I assure you I WILL be looking very closely at anyone who defended him or moved the conversation elsewhere.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
You should do it now. No sense waiting. Also, you can wait til Shinbi posts whatever he was gonna post, or you can cast your vote now and help attain the majority so we can get night actions straight away.
Voted Lakris back when I posted that Opz.
Two survivors? That seems kinda unlikely. My thought is that Snape would be the survivor and Draco would be the traitor. But Draco's role in Book seven wouldn't quite fit that. Book Six sure, not so much Book Seven.
But who else would the traitor be? I suppose Luna Lovegood's dad as someone mentioned earlier, but at the very least he wasn't in the first list of townies BM put out, and he's a fairly minor character.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
We're not allowed to talk at night Abenson, so people are trying to not blatantly break the rules by giving you suggestions.
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EPT
