EPTTL Mafia XXVI
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
 bumatlarge's list of potentially implicated mafias looks good, couldnt find any more suspects. So far its zeks, Darth and YellowInk for mayor right? And the voting takes place and the end of day1? | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
DTA brought up a good point in that there is nothing else in YellowInk's profile to write clues about, but since it's a day 1 clue I don't think we should put too much thought into that just yet. I also like his aggressive style, should bring all the townies together efficiently. | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
On June 05 2010 05:01 DarthThienAn wrote: TheGilaBoy: poison in the coffee cup, "gila" = venomous lizard, pic is a DT (thrown knife) YellowInk: Printer, Ink, etc. (obvious) deconduo: picture of boat in water (fountain) onihunter: swimmer (fountain) crate: license plate car joke (car) LaXerCannon: quote "just keep swimming" (fountain) TyranoS_Nivek: something about treading water for 3 days (fountain), pic is a DT (thrown knife) MooCow: something about treading water for 3 days (fountain). Also, his picture is the band "Disturbed", which was in the Day 1 post, very weak/subtle though. zeks: pic is Shikamaru = thrown knife. DCLXVI: mentions a Humvee in his profile (car) jiabung: drives a van in his profile (car) Should we focus MORE on the far fetched ones? We all seem to think they wouldn't put obvious clues in day 1. For instance zeks with his picture and what that characters personality is like. I guess we can't know anything for sure yet though, but those should have a higher priority in regards to clue/role checking and linking further clues together. | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
The two people I suspect most so far are zeks and DCLXVI. DCLXVI has several possible clues linked to him that to me seem within the reasonable span of "far-fetchednes" zeks might have been an early run at mayor from the mafia, and quickly responded with a defensive post pointing clues at someone else. However, zeks did post clues he thought pointed towards DCLXVI. So either both are town, or only one of them is mafia. Another thing to consider is that when we do get mafia kills, the EARLY suspicions will basically always be confirmed townies. Later suspicions could just as well be mafias trying to get credit as townies by jumping on the bandwagon. | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
It only says the townspeople stayed behind their barricades, so should we see this as a clue at all? If it is a clue, I would say it strongly indicates GilaBoy. Also, something I noticed. The masked figure somehow outran him in the day 2 post. Not typical of a DT or spy. There are still other things pointing towards those people with DTs however, but maybe we should try to find something else in that clue. (wasn't able to see anything special myself looking through the profiles) | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
TheGilaBoy doesn't seem at all suspicious from his posting, not a lot of substance though. Could still be mafia playing the innocent newbie card, and with some clues pointing to him we should consider him. He is not my first choice of lynching though. Misder seems more likely to be mafia to me, going by his posts alone. Also his "Whaaaa?" quote could be linked to the unexplainability and suddenness of the printer exploding. Also can't think of anyone else being linked to that clue, since YI most likely is town. | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
On June 07 2010 04:05 sputnik.theory wrote: The ElyAs hit seems suspicious to me. It has already been brought up that a scum outrunning ElyAs and not killing him as they passed seems unrealistic. How could he have enough time to sit down on the courthouse steps and wait for ElyAs to come around at full speed? One possible explanation that has been offered has been that the scum in question could 'blink'. Here's another: It could be possible that two scum were involved in the death of ElyAs. One to follow him and chase him to the courthouse and another waiting in ambush there to kill him. At night, it's not hard for two masked men to look the same. Additionally, we actually have two players that 'look the same' playing in this game as MooCow and Tyranos_Nivek have identical profiles. The implications of such a double hit would be that MTF is lying about being targeted on night1. I am not convinced that the theory above is what actually took place but it seems to be a possibility. Interesting. This does seem like a possibility. Can't really "profile" Tyranos on his posting since there are so few posts. MooCow consistently ask questions about the game and refers to the mafia as "them" or "how could they not get a candidate in" etc. Might be an attempt to distance himself from mafia, or he is just new and didn't research mafia games a lot. | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
About the whole MTF being saved discussion. If there is at least one person we can assume to be townie (YI/Darth?) shouldn't it be possible to determine if MTF is actually telling the truth? MTF can PM the person we choose to trust, saying if he is veteran or if he got saved by medic. The potential medic PMs the same person saying he saved MTF. As AFJ pointed out, the mafia should not dare to PM with a fake medic since this would give us a confirmed mafia if the real medic PMed as well. We also don't need to specify to the town if he is a veteran or not, just that he is not mafia. Since a medic has already saved him, it would be a bit of a gamble for mafia to try to kill him again. Unless the mafia can choose to kill the same person? Or abstain. (which would also be a slight gamble of trying to get townie credit early on) | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
But I have to agree with YI's logic once again. Gambling on MooCow at this point could leave us at a worse position later. If we were zerg in a starcraft game, going for MooCow is like rushing. I don't like rushing. Let's build some drones instead. | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
If deuce is a mafia, they obviously would rather have MooCow lynched. If deuce is townie, they would still rather have MooCow since he was more active. Less activity makes it easier for them to lurk and hide. Now they most likely wouldn't risk to start the bandwagon, but rather jump on it later. Those who voted for MooCow were: AcrossFiveJulys DCLXVI Misder BrownBear zeks sputnik.theory onihunter DarthThienAn (x3) LunarDestiny That's a fairly short list considering there are 6 mafias. Can't be completely certain they are all in there obviously, but starting with these guys should be the best option. | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
At the start it seemed like he tried to even out the votes on all the candidates, including bear and zeks, by being overly suspicious of everybody. This would be great for mafia since their organized voting would then sway it in favour of whoever they wanted picked. He then proceeded to talk about medics and who they should protect. Also asks the question to the town who they think medics should protect and so on, would obviously be great information for mafia. He posted some player analysis, but all of them ended with "seems pretty neutral, could be either" or something similar. Most outstanding was DCLXVI which he thought to be mafia. He bandwagoned early with deuce as lynching target, but switched late to MooCow. Also his response to the vigi modkill seems a bit over the top. This is the most suspicious posting I've looked at yet, high chance of being mafia in my eyes. | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
Day 1 clues + Show Spoiler + "...and floating in the town fountain." "...he deflected no less than five assassination attempts, ranging from sniffing poison in his coffee cup to leaping out of the way from a thrown knife while walking down the hallway." "but in one freak moment, the printer exploded and showered Incognito with burning hot ink, hitting him in the face." "..to escape, he was struck by a speeding car." Day 2 clues + Show Spoiler + "A masked figure followed him, and stealthily kept to the shadows, not letting ElyAs out of his sight." "As ElyAs passed by the town courthouse, he noticed that he had already been beaten--the masked figure was sitting on the steps." "...the killer walked away with a bloodied knife." "...he felt a weight push against him, and he went tumbling out the window." Day 3 clues + Show Spoiler + "something flew through the air, blinding pyr0ma5ta as it hit him in the face." "As he clawed at the suffocating object, it released an electrical shock that brought pyr0ma5ta to his knees." "As he lay there, stunned, he heard footsteps approaching him. The last thing pyr0ma5ta would hear was the sound of his killer's heavy breathing." "By the end of the night AcrossFiveJuly’s had no idea who stabbed him" Based of clues alone. I'd say GilaBoy, Hugoboss21, 3 lions, zeks, CompX and Misder are my suspects. Hugoboss would be a strong suspicion since I can't find any other connection with the electrical shock from day 3 then him playing spy in tf2. 3 lions also fall under the category of people who post a lot on TL, but very little in the mafia thread. I'm therefore agreeing with littlechava at this point. Hugoboss and 3 lions should be up for lynching. | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On June 09 2010 07:02 Zyrre wrote: Analysis of onihuter. At the start it seemed like he tried to even out the votes on all the candidates, including bear and zeks, by being overly suspicious of everybody. This would be great for mafia since their organized voting would then sway it in favour of whoever they wanted picked. He then proceeded to talk about medics and who they should protect. Also asks the question to the town who they think medics should protect and so on, would obviously be great information for mafia. He posted some player analysis, but all of them ended with "seems pretty neutral, could be either" or something similar. Most outstanding was DCLXVI which he thought to be mafia. He bandwagoned early with deuce as lynching target, but switched late to MooCow. Also his response to the vigi modkill seems a bit over the top. This is the most suspicious posting I've looked at yet, high chance of being mafia in my eyes. | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
Agrees with crate Wanted to lynch laxer Said DCLXVI might be mafia Voted to lynch moocow and zyrre It was only one post agreeing with crate, so he doesn't have to be mafia. And crate actually said early on that onihunter had some suspicious posting. He also says MooCow is town. Overall looks like pro-town posting to me. Him wanting to lynch certain people should indicate they are town. Excluding the dead that gives us laxer, DCLXVI and me as townies. | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
Almost guaranteed town (imo): Zyrre YellowInk MTF DTA crate (no clues, solid pro-town posting) LunardDestiny (no clues, solid pro-town posting) Littlechava (no clues, solid pro-town posting) Most likely Town: Misder (a few farfetched clues has been posted, but seems like pro-town posting) BrownBear (no clues, no suspicious behaviour) bumatlarge (town-ish posting, no clues)) DCLXVI (seems like pro-town posting, oni suspected him to be mafia) LaXerCannon (has the "just keep swimming" clue, but onihunter had something related to the fountain death so it was most likely towards him, has posted som logical analysis) Unsure: TheGilaBoy (low substance in posts, not overly suspicious opsting, possible clue) deconduo (not much analysis, no clues as fas as I can tell) Deucegladlier (no posting and a slight clue ("book" on shirt), seems likely he will get modkilled soon anyway) Might be mafia: sputnik.theory (very little posting, profile mentions DT so possible clue) Hugoboss21 (inactivity + clues) CompX (almost no posting, some clues BUT a few posts that points us to mafias, not sure what to make of this) zeks (lots of posting, with potential mafia behaviour at times (example: arguing we shouldnt lynch inactives), has clues on him) | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
If he WAS going to rat out a mafia to gain credit, he would never have done it to onihunter. 3 lions would have been in danger of modkill when he was coming up with that plan, he would have used him instead. | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
Out of the ones crate listed at the end of his post, I'd say zeks is the most likely to be mafia. With BrownBear being another, less likely, possibility. | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
So really the only thing pointing towards that right now is the breathing heavily clue and the fact the YI was hit instead of him. | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
In some of his latest posts he gave us a list of who should be investigated/analysed: BrownBear Littlechava Misder TheGilaboy Zeks He was also a bit more aggressive towards inactives than DTA was. Several people have already expressed concerns about zeks, and misder could fall under the slightly inactive category(though he made some good analysis that I agree with) | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
I'm mainly throwing this out there as an idea for discussions about the next lynching. I think we can find some better targets for today, I'll be posting my ideas later. | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
I think zeks is a good target along with either hugo or sputnik. Seems like sputnik might be modkilled though, so I'd say zeks and Hugoboss21. zeks for all the previous reasons stated. Hugoboss21 seems like a mafia doing the bare minimum to me. I'll hold off on voting in case anyone convinces me to vote for someone else | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
Here's why: 1. Two clues "...the sound of his killer's heavy breathing." Darth vader reference "he felt a weight push against him" Darth using the force Can't see these clues linked to anybody else 2. Forced to out onihunter He is most likely in touch with a real DT. He can't be sure that player has not told anybody else about his findings, therefore he needs to out oni or he himself will be under investigation. This invalidates his reasoning against MTF's arguments + Show Spoiler + MTF, if I'm mafia and have been in contact with my first DT since day 2, why wouldn't I have killed him by now? If you're gonna say that he had a third townie to accuse me if he died, then that's easily solvable - mafia get 3 KP in the beginning, 2 last night. Just kill the DT and the confirmed townie, makes for a nice clean job and the town loses a DT. 3. Extremely unlikely timing 21 hours after this day started(and any DT checks were delivered) bumatlarge posted some accusations against DTA. Within 3 minutes DTA claims that a DT told him that bumatlarge is mafia. Also changes his first statement that it was a cluecheck to it being a rolecheck after zeks asks what clue it was on (no obvious clue relates to bumatlarge) 4. Timing attack They kill both bodyguards, a vigilante, and YI right as we have double-lynch activated. If we lynch two townies at this stage, after the mafias night-slaughter we will be at 9 townies AND mafia will have 6 voting power(one or two modkills are also likely, making it almost certainly a lost cause). 5. Voting Two confirmed mafia voted him for mayor, and he was the swinging power to get MooCow. All this is just overwhelming, surely others must feel the same way? As for my second target, Misder seems like the best option. + Show Spoiler + Recent surge in activity, pointing fingers in all directions(DTA's proposed target, DCLXVI), and also quickly followed BBs suggestion that he investigate DTA. Odd conclusion, did have SOME hesitation in the middle of his ramble, but quickly discarded it. His last post indicates he blindly believes in DTA. Also followed the mafia votings. But more on that tomorrow, sleep time. | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
The outcome if bumatlarge is green: you lynch me and I'm mafia. Mafia are down to 3, with only 3 voting power. Town has 13 - 1 - 2 (assuming perfect hits), 10 vs 3, still pretty good odds, especially if we still have 2 dts and 2 medics and 1-2 veterans in there. We are lynching two people today. Which means Town could be 13-2-2=9. And during that day we would be 9 townie vs 4 mafia with 9 vs 6 voting power. Considering bumatlarge's reaction though, I'd say he's most likely mafia. | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
17 people are still alive. I have a plan to secure liquiville from these mafia scumbags. DarthThienAn or bumatlarge are almost certainly mafia (could be both or none, but far less likely. discussed at the end of this post) If we lynch them both, we are in excellent shape to take our town back There will be 15 people inhabiting our town after today, and only 3 of them will be mafia. With no mayor in play we will have 12 voting power vs 3, great shape as we will most likely have solid leads after analyzing their posting. Compare that to 9 voting power vs 6 if DTA is mafia. It will be game over. In the absolute worst case scenario(which I reaIly can't see happening at this point), we will be 9 vs 4. Still a slight fighting chance. The point of all this: It is extremely dangerous if DTA is mafia, we lose ALOT more on him being alive as mafia then dead as townie I am therefore casting my vote on DarthThienAn AND bumatlarge If you are truly rooting for liquiville, you should do the same | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
oya, and I gave you guys a bonus one through modkill yesterday too, when I could have just had him lynched and saved onihunter for another day and left mafia with 3 KP. Not sure if you are doing this intentionally, but MTF already said why you could not do this and I quoted him. Anyway, I was only pushing it this hard since DTA being mafia would be the only way we could lose this. But since I wasn't getting any reaction, I'll stop. Maybe I'm just overestimating the mafia. | ||
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