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@MTF, re: Darth + oni:
Darth's DT in that case was almost certainly legit regardless, so let's take that for granted. If you're Darth as a townie, you clearly call out oni. If you're Darth as a mafia ... you probably still have to call it out because the DT is going to get the word out somehow and then I think after lynching oni the town lynches both the DT and Darth the next day. (There are other possibilities, but this one makes the most sense to me).
I think this is too dangerous for Darth to risk, so yeah, I certainly wouldn't be convinced that he's in the clear because he outed onihunter.
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Unless bum turns up miller (not gonna consider that right now) ->
I'll look at a couple possibilities: If Darth is red, clearly a fake DT is the same as no DT, so I'm not going to worry about fake DT here.
1) Darth is red, bum is not red, there is no DT:
-> Bum is most likely not actually a miller; he flips non-red non-Miller and we ask Darth for a name for his DT and he makes one up. We then have to decide (like I already covered with oni) whether to lynch Darth, lynch Darth's DT, or both.
2) Darth is red, bum is red, there is no DT:
-> Makes no sense.
3) bum is not red, there is a real DT (any alignment for Darth):
-> Only makes sense if bum is miller
4) Darth is red, bum is red, there is a DT:
-> This is a complicated scenario. I think Darth has to tell the town here, because if he doesn't then it's quite likely he'll get outed (DT tells someone else about the rolecheck) and both Darth and bum die. With only 4 mafia left I think it's very unlikely that we'd have all three of bum, Darth, and the DT actually be mafia and the DT "faking" a rolecheck and outing a buddy to get the town's trust.
5) Darth is not red, there is no DT (any alignment for bum)
-> Makes no sense.
6) Darth is not red, bum is red, there is a DT:
-> Obviously makes sense
7) Darth is not red, bum is not red, there is a fake DT:
-> Only makes sense if the DT is red. From here we are at the same place as 1).
I think this covers all the scenarios worth considering. 1) and 7) are very similar ... I'd think 4) or 6) is more likely though.
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I think the town should consider mass roleclaiming at this point. There are two obvious ways to do it ... either we mass roleclaim publicly, or we mass roleclaim to a chosen player or set of players through PM and then those players tell the town who we should be looking at for mafia.
The benefit of the first way is that there are going to be no shenanigans except mafia lying about their roles, and if Darth is mafia I'd guess he knows a fair few roles already (he almost certainly knows at least 1 DT).
The benefit of the second way is that we're not necessarily telling the mafia who our power roles are. The risk is obviously that we choose a mafia in our list of players to PM and then have some shenanigans going on and additionally don't have the benefit of private claims.
If we private claim I'd suggest claiming to MTF, unless you believe he didn't actually soak up hits the first two nights.
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Oh, and there's no way that both of my votes are staying on hugo and Deuce. They still look like they're doing the absolute minimum to dodge modkills. They both posted since the start of Night 3, so a vote from either one at any time today will dodge another modkill.
I'm leaving my vote on hugo because people have connected him to clues. Other vote for now is going on bum because we have a claim that a DT rolechecked him to be red.
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If you want to mass roleclaim through PMs, do it to at least two people so that you have your back covered.
I'll say this: my second DT is unconfirmed as far as I know. He has no one to back up his claim, but it made sense to me to lynch bumat and either get a mafia, or get a fake DT.
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On June 13 2010 09:26 DarthThienAn wrote:
If you want to mass roleclaim through PMs, do it to at least two people so that you have your back covered.
Well, yeah.
But I don't have a good second person to suggest. Claiming to you doesn't seem to be a good idea right now. MTF has pretty good evidence to support him being town-aligned though.
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at this point, off the top of my head, I'd suggest, me, you, MTF, and my first DT once he gets here lol.
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I have voted for DCLXVI and bumatlarge as of right now.
Because I did analysis on DCLXVI already, and to me, he seems suspicious/mafia, I am voting for him. He has both clues and suspicious behavior going on.
I voted for bumatlarge because we will either catch a fake dt or a mafia member pending. crate did a long analysis of what we can figure out after today's lynch, which I agree with.
Also, I noticed that deconduo voted for me, so now I'm suspicious of him, lol. What exactly are your reasons for voting to lynch me, deconduo?
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I looked up the poem that deconduo has on his public profile:
"Can I please go out to the bathroom?
And a fox.
I like cake.
And Sharon Ni Bheolain
I’m wearing a jumper
There are clouds in the sky
Give me the cake !”
is the translation. I don't know what this signifies yet though; its really weird.
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I still don't think darth is mafia. The reason goes way back to day 1 when he pmed inactive to encourage participation.
The list of people he pmed (darth said he didn't pm AcrossFiveJuly, the reason is AcrossFiveJuly did some posting shortly after)
On June 04 2010 09:53 MTF wrote:Show nested quote +On June 04 2010 09:49 zeks wrote:
Anyone have a list of inactives ?
I'm not gonna bother compiling this cause I'm probably gonna make another mistake on that There aren't many: barth AcrossFiveJulys Icysoul LaXerCannon supernovamaniac These are the only people who have yet to say anything so far. A few others have only made a single post.
Of the 4 people he pmed, only icysoul didn't give me an answer. The other three turned out to be pro town.
I don't think the mafia would like to encourage participation from pro town people. If Darth is using this to play some long term mind game, he deserved the game.
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DarthThienAn
Clues: I could not find any clues pointing to him. If anyone wants to check, that would be good.
Votes:
Mayor: Darth
Day1 Lynch: MooCow
Day2 Lynch: omihunter
Thoughts: I'm leaning pro-town on him, but he still may be in the mafia. Although the mafia has killed his two bodygaurds, which makes him very vulnerable, the mafia targeted YI first. Either Darth is in the mafia and wanted to get rid of YI because of all of his analysis/town organization, or Darth is pro-town and had no idea what was going to happen. If Darth is mafia, the mafia would not target him because of his strong votes in the lynching process. If Darth is pro-town, then the mafia would probably target him because the only people that the dts are talking to is Darth. Darth also started the vote on omihunter, and if Darth was in the mafia, then I don't think that he would vote for him (unless he didn't want to not trust the dt cause the dt could tell the town that Darth didn't listen to him- if this is the case, i suspect that the mafia will target the dt next). If bumatlarge is the mafia, then it strengthens Darth's pro-towness. His behavior seems pro-town like, as he tries to get people to discuss about behavior analysis. Nothing about his votes are off; he chose himself obviously for mayor, he chose MooCow because of his suspicious behavior and clues pointing to him, and he chose omihunter cause a dt told him.
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On June 13 2010 10:34 Misder wrote:
I looked up the poem that deconduo has on his public profile:
"Can I please go out to the bathroom?
And a fox.
I like cake.
And Sharon Ni Bheolain
I’m wearing a jumper
There are clouds in the sky
Give me the cake !”
is the translation. I don't know what this signifies yet though; its really weird.
If he profile writes in another language and it appears to be weird. Then the clue should reflect similar quality which no clue to this point reflects this quality.
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Suspicion and awareness are good. But it looks like everyone are pointing fingers at darth. It seems to me that was started by a mafia or at least the suspicion was expanded by a mafia.
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On June 13 2010 10:53 LunarDestiny wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2010 10:34 Misder wrote:
I looked up the poem that deconduo has on his public profile:
"Can I please go out to the bathroom?
And a fox.
I like cake.
And Sharon Ni Bheolain
I’m wearing a jumper
There are clouds in the sky
Give me the cake !”
is the translation. I don't know what this signifies yet though; its really weird. If he profile writes in another language and it appears to be weird. Then the clue should reflect similar quality which no clue to this point reflects this quality.
I know. I mean, his pic relates to Day 1's clue about the drowning, and deconDUO could signify Day 3 where YI and LaXer were together, but I guess those links are weak. However, I looked at his postings, and he has not said anything new. He frequently states that someone has beaten him to the answer, and has not contributed to player analysis. He wasn't extremely for lynching omihunter, and was suspicious. Only when there was no one voting for anyone else did he vote for omihunter.
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Also, should we consider double lynching this day? We have two dts (supposedly) still alive and Darth is still alive to tell us what the dts are saying. Right now, Darth seems trustworthy in telling us the rolechecks. If we wait too long, we may not have our dts alive. Of course, we only have one double lynch left, so I'm not sure if its better to wait till we absolutely know. As of right now, I'm going to vote for a double lynch.
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I want to say three things.
1. The situation still feels iffy to me, though not because of Darth's involvement.
2. I did initially panic and felt that Darth might definitely be lying, but soon after he posted responding to me I realized how unlikely it was, especially considering the fact that we have two lynches today.
3. The only reason I'm responding so late to say the above is that I wanted to leave the post out to see who might jump on-board with me. (Ask Darth for confirmation if you need it, I informed him.)
So, I guess for the moment my votes will go to Bumatlarge and Hugoboss21, for much the same reasons as crate. Sorry if you turn up Miller/green, Bum, but this gives us more information.
I suggest we wait on the double lynch for just one day. We possibly get more DT information, as well as two days worth of clues for the next lynching, giving us more of a chance of having strong suspects.
As for mass roleclaiming, I wouldn't mind it. If blues start dying every night, we know who holds the roles, so we can hold them accountable. But I can't blame people who disagree with it and don't want to put trust in any of the recommended individuals.
Anyway, I'm out for now. I might check back later (addicted), but I really should go to bed. I got two hours of sleep last night before work, mostly due to this game. XD
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I'm going to vote along with MTF.
I've wanted Hugo out for a while, too little posting (all of which is about how he's sorry he's not posting enough - trying to get sympathy), clue connections, etc.
I also trust Darth's DT check, and the worst case scenario will probably be that bumatlarge turns out to be a Miller.
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Analysis on MTF:
Voting Habits:
Day 1: YellowInk for Mayor
Day 2: DeuceGladlier for lynch
Day 3: Onihunter
Nothing that special here. He kept his vote on Deuce after the bandwagon changed to MooCow, which means abosolutely nothing. He did vote differently than onihunter both times, and 3 lions the one time 3 lions voted, so that counts for something (actually, probably counts for a whole lot, unless mafia are retardedly coordinated with their day votes.)
Overall:
What I'm noticing is while he hasn't been super-mega-LD-style active, his posts tend to be reasonably content filled and well thought-out. He's more active than I have been, too, so I really can't knock him for that. A few things I have noticed/posts of note:
Night 1: he claims to have survived a hit. Seems pretty cool, since only 2 people died and stacking hits would be stupid, so there's not much to go against him.
He tends to base his analysis off of clues, although more recently he's started analyzing behavior.
Like I said, his posts tend to be well thought out and on the longish side. Here's an example:
On June 07 2010 04:40 MTF wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2010 23:06 LaXerCannon wrote:+ Show Spoiler +From TheGilaboy, I naturally see the weak DT connection but I also see other connections:
ElyAs was being stalked and BloodyC0bbler was as well in day 1 and the fact that he has a stalker in his profile helps, but what really made me vote for him was the fact that the masked figure beat ElyAs to the courthouse even though he was being followed. If the masked figure really passed ElyAs, don't you think the murderer would've killed ElyAs as he passed him?
My only plausible explanation is that the masked figure blinked which is an ability for the stalker. This is a very succinct explanation. Seems quite plausible. Well done.  Show nested quote +On June 07 2010 04:05 sputnik.theory wrote:+ Show Spoiler +The ElyAs hit seems suspicious to me. It has already been brought up that a scum outrunning ElyAs and not killing him as they passed seems unrealistic. How could he have enough time to sit down on the courthouse steps and wait for ElyAs to come around at full speed? One possible explanation that has been offered has been that the scum in question could 'blink'. Here's another:
It could be possible that two scum were involved in the death of ElyAs. One to follow him and chase him to the courthouse and another waiting in ambush there to kill him. At night, it's not hard for two masked men to look the same. Additionally, we actually have two players that 'look the same' playing in this game as MooCow and Tyranos_Nivek have identical profiles. The implications of such a double hit would be that MTF is lying about being targeted on night1.
I am not convinced that the theory above is what actually took place but it seems to be a possibility. The biggest flaw with this theory is, quite simply, "why?" Why would Mafia put two hits on either of them, when they could have stacked those two on a higher profile/more active townie? The only plausible implication would be that I am myself doing what I warned town of before I left for work yesterday. Show nested quote +On June 06 2010 04:23 MTF wrote:+ Show Spoiler +In case I'm dead and can't say it then, something to keep in mind: Just because a person claims to be hit last night and only two people died, doesn't mean they were. Mafia can stack hits, and while it would be ultimately unwise to do so, they might be tempted to throw the Godfather out there in an attempt to infiltrate any blossoming town-circles. So, as always, exercise caution. It'd be a ridiculously convoluted scheme for me to be engaging in at this point. Show nested quote +On June 07 2010 04:06 littlechava wrote:+ Show Spoiler +He's suggesting that the medic who saved MTF come out and tell MTF that he's a blue role/they're both on the same side. Questionable tactic though, since MTF probably wouldn't be able to trust the guy - it could just be some mafia member trying to gain his trust. MTF has no way of verifying whether the person PMing him actually saved him. If any more Mafia members would like to come over and say hi, I'll gladly invite them for a stay.  I'll be going over clues again after work tonight, as well as reviewing the post histories of a chosen few individuals, hopefully with as much analysis as crate provided. Keep looking and talking people!
He shows that he's reading and analyzing the thread well, revisits an old idea he had and revises his opinions based off of whats happened so far, and he shows a pretty solid grasp of what's going on in the game. All of this speaks town to me.
so to summarize:
Arguments for TOWN:
-Well thought out posting that has been critical of already-caught mafia members.
-Voting history that is pretty much the exact opposite to caught mafia.
-Probably was telling the truth when he survived that night 1 hit.
Arguments for SCUM:
-Not a whole lot.
-Possibly could be playing a very elaborate mind game? Unlikely.
So I'm pretty sure MTF is town.
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Alright, I've thought this through, and I think it's best for the town if I die. Then we can get to the bottom of this alot easier. The only thing I ask is
1) I want Darth's people to find another liable person that knows who they are. I'm not going to suggest anyone, but I'd suggest MTF. Revamped what my thoughts were. The clues I came up with were relatively far fetched, and the situation he was posed in makes little sense to me anymore if he is mafia. They can barely afford kills like that even for that one time. I was just trying to stir up a kind of thought process of people having "inklings" about people's roles.
2) Darth is probably mafia. Unless the mafia have been going deep into this plan, which after the double hits on MTF screw-up doesn't seem very likely. That DT could be a rogue, if he exists, and they knew darth would be under watch if they ousted the last BG and yellow, and darth has 2 DTs now right? He's going to get caught in cross-fire, which would seem a very brilliant plan by mafia to take out the mayor and buy a day for themselves. But then I look at the people they were hitting and I laugh a this possibility.
We still have plenty of time to dig this matter up. Just don't trust anyone unless you rolecheck someone and the Godfather's head is in your backpack.
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I am super inclined to lynch DTA at this stage.
Here's why:
1. Two clues
"...the sound of his killer's heavy breathing." Darth vader reference
"he felt a weight push against him" Darth using the force
Can't see these clues linked to anybody else
2. Forced to out onihunter
He is most likely in touch with a real DT. He can't be sure that player has not told anybody else about his findings, therefore he needs to out oni or he himself will be under investigation.
This invalidates his reasoning against MTF's arguments
+ Show Spoiler +MTF, if I'm mafia and have been in contact with my first DT since day 2, why wouldn't I have killed him by now? If you're gonna say that he had a third townie to accuse me if he died, then that's easily solvable - mafia get 3 KP in the beginning, 2 last night. Just kill the DT and the confirmed townie, makes for a nice clean job and the town loses a DT.
3. Extremely unlikely timing
21 hours after this day started(and any DT checks were delivered) bumatlarge posted some accusations against DTA. Within 3 minutes DTA claims that a DT told him that bumatlarge is mafia. Also changes his first statement that it was a cluecheck to it being a rolecheck after zeks asks what clue it was on (no obvious clue relates to bumatlarge)
4. Timing attack
They kill both bodyguards, a vigilante, and YI right as we have double-lynch activated. If we lynch two townies at this stage, after the mafias night-slaughter we will be at 9 townies AND mafia will have 6 voting power(one or two modkills are also likely, making it almost certainly a lost cause).
5. Voting
Two confirmed mafia voted him for mayor, and he was the swinging power to get MooCow.
All this is just overwhelming, surely others must feel the same way?
As for my second target, Misder seems like the best option.
+ Show Spoiler +Recent surge in activity, pointing fingers in all directions(DTA's proposed target, DCLXVI), and also quickly followed BBs suggestion that he investigate DTA. Odd conclusion, did have SOME hesitation in the middle of his ramble, but quickly discarded it. His last post indicates he blindly believes in DTA.
Also followed the mafia votings.
But more on that tomorrow, sleep time.
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And why are we killing hugo? That guys gonna kill himself in due time.
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We got to believe darth's dt because it helped us get onihunter. If the dt rolechecked bumatlarge with scum outcome, we can lynch bumatlarge and if bumatlarge turns out anything other than scum or miller, then we should question darth or his dt.
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EPT
