EPTTL Mafia XXVI - Page 71
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
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DCLXVI
United States729 Posts
On June 13 2010 12:51 Zyrre wrote: 2. Forced to out onihunter He is most likely in touch with a real DT. He can't be sure that player has not told anybody else about his findings, therefore he needs to out oni or he himself will be under investigation. This invalidates his reasoning against MTF's arguments + Show Spoiler + MTF, if I'm mafia and have been in contact with my first DT since day 2, why wouldn't I have killed him by now? If you're gonna say that he had a third townie to accuse me if he died, then that's easily solvable - mafia get 3 KP in the beginning, 2 last night. Just kill the DT and the confirmed townie, makes for a nice clean job and the town loses a DT. well thought out for the rest of the post, but here the DT could just not be stupid and not tell DTA the confirmed townie. Right now I am inclined to believe both DTA and MTF are townie but suspicious of each other. You do have a nice argument zyrre, but I cannot agree with some of it. @MTF - did DTA tell you the second DT's ID? Are you two talking now? On June 13 2010 10:31 Misder wrote: I have voted for DCLXVI and bumatlarge as of right now. Because I did analysis on DCLXVI already, and to me, he seems suspicious/mafia, I am voting for him. He has both clues and suspicious behavior going on. why the hate misder? And bum has gone off the deep end. I don't think any townie would act the way he is acting right now. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On June 13 2010 08:22 DarthThienAn wrote: BTW guys. Second DT PMed me. bumatlarge got cluechecked to be mafia. Um no DCL Im merely correcting facts, There is a 2nd DT that PM'd darth. Point to one post that says I'm going off the deep end. | ||
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DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
The outcome if bumatlarge is green: you lynch me and I'm mafia. Mafia are down to 3, with only 3 voting power. Town has 13 - 1 - 2 (assuming perfect hits), 10 vs 3, still pretty good odds, especially if we still have 2 dts and 2 medics and 1-2 veterans in there. Does that sound good? If you disagree with this, then a) you're mafia b) you're being incredibly unreasonable or c) I can write out why your post doesn't quite work. MTF hasn't gotten back to me, but I told him the DT's name. I don't know why you say I don't trust MTF, it's him who [didn't] trust me as a knee jerk reaction to the night kills. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On June 13 2010 13:20 DarthThienAn wrote: Zyrre, I'm going to mostly ignore your post and let the results speak for themselves. Lynch bumatlarge first, and then lynch me if he's not mafia/miller. The outcome if bumatlarge is green: you lynch me and I'm mafia. Mafia are down to 3, with only 3 voting power. Town has 13 - 1 - 2 (assuming perfect hits), 10 vs 3, still pretty good odds, especially if we still have 2 dts and 2 medics and 1-2 veterans in there. Does that sound good? If you disagree with this, then a) you're mafia b) you're being incredibly unreasonable or c) I can write out why your post doesn't quite work. MTF hasn't gotten back to me, but I told him the DT's name. I don't know why you say I don't trust MTF, it's him who [didn't] trust me as a knee jerk reaction to the night kills. kneejerk my foot scum + Show Spoiler + hey dead townies can have fun to right? cant reserve that for people like oni  | ||
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DCLXVI
United States729 Posts
On June 13 2010 13:20 bumatlarge wrote: Um no DCL Im merely correcting facts, There is a 2nd DT that PM'd darth. Point to one post that says I'm going off the deep end. pg 69... I did not say you misstated facts. | ||
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DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
On June 13 2010 12:06 MTF wrote: 2. I did initially panic and felt that Darth might definitely be lying, but soon after he posted responding to me I realized how unlikely it was, especially considering the fact that we have two lynches today. 3. The only reason I'm responding so late to say the above is that I wanted to leave the post out to see who might jump on-board with me. (Ask Darth for confirmation if you need it, I informed him.) Yes bumatlarge, knee jerk. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
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DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On June 13 2010 13:54 DarthThienAn wrote: ...lol wat. Hm let me analize darth's post to derive whether or not he is mafia. If we see he put 3 periods preceeding the text, so we can safely assume he hesitated, which may give away a somewhat mafi-esque posting personality. The "lol wat" can be take a variety of ways. The simpleton would take this as a joke so I'll try to break this down for you. lol wat - reverse it wat lol - we now switch the last letters wal lot - Hm.... wallet From this we can assume that because of his mayoral status that he has a hunger for power. And with this hidden gem we can assume he is greedy. The answer is staring us in the face... + Show Spoiler + im insane | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
Aw this one is a bit simpler but ill go slow. We see his reference to the page 69 used so self consciously that one would be wary of jumping to conclusions. Thus I question DCLXVI's sexuality. He seems defensive also but firm. Like a fortress. Of sticks. We all know that you need alot of sticks to build one, somewhere in the hundreds for at least a small-ish one correct? So with his inconclusive homosexual status and his wooden demeanor we can gather that he is a + Show Spoiler + Faggot | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On June 13 2010 08:31 MTF wrote: Time for some posting analysis on Oni/3 Lions, with the aid of knowing that they were Mafia this time. (gonna steal crate's format, kinda, because I'm shorter on time than usual) 3 Lions: + Show Spoiler + Summary: + Show Spoiler + - Points a clue at MooCow, Darth later comments on it being a "really nice catch". - Points clues at MooCow, Onihunter, Zeks, and Tyranos_Nivek. - "Sorry for inactivity" post. - Points clues at TheGilaBoy, Tyranos_Nivek, and Littlechava, which helps start off a bandwagon towards killing TheGilaBoy. Observed Relations: + Show Spoiler + None, never talked to anyone directly. Just posted clues. Conclusions: + Show Spoiler + 3 Lions was probably just trying to look somewhat active by doing very light cluework. The fact that he implicated one of his teammates in a post means very little when the way he did it was weak. However, he later very specifically points at TheGilaBoy, singling him out with stronger connections than to either Littlechava or Tyranos_Nivek. I believe this clears TheGilaBoy of suspicion, at this point. I do not think Mafia would have put so much pressure on one of their own in that way. Littlechava's clue connection was very weak, though, so the suspicion is not cleared there. Onihunter: + Show Spoiler + Summary: + Show Spoiler + - Asks zeks why it's good to lynch inactives, cites self-newbieness. - Posts about there being a lot to read. Mentions Darth's cluelist (he lists zeks, Tyranos, and TheGilaBoy) as being a good place to start looking for people to kill once the time comes. Reiterates newbieness. - Is against voting for YellowInk, claims he wants someone in that has no clues attached to him. - Continues to mention that we need someone without clues in office, continues being against electing YellowInk. - "bedtime, will read when I return kthxbai" type post. - "I'm back, gonna catch up now" type post. (Told you guys to look out for these) - "Caught up, response now" type post. Supports Darth, still against YellowInk. - Supports crate's strategy, talks about "mafia's evil hands", and calls out the inactives. - Agrees again with crate about wanting more information from candidates. Reiterates his strong support of Darth. Says he wants to lynch inactives, again. - Tentively agrees with LunarDestiny's way-out-there suggestion to lynch the Pardoner upon election. Posts general comments about the candidates: On June 04 2010 14:21 onihunter wrote: Darth: General agreement is he posts like a townie, so that's a plus. Also experienced, but that's neither a plus nor a minus. He also seems clear-headed. Yellow: Posts a LOT. Seems quite defensive when criticized, and I can't really say that I like the guy =/. Just personal preference though, nothing really concrete. Also inciting lots of arguing and conflict that is unnecessary at this point in the game. Beardude: I really liked him until he responded to Inkguy's attack. His responses weren't that coherent though imo, and he seemed really emotional in that post to me. Also he himself stated that it's personal between the two now, sort of alienating me. However, he IS running for pardoner specifically. Zeks: There isn't really that much past the few posts that contained mistakes, so can't say much. Suspicious in that he's not a newbie to this game, but I think it's forgivable. Overall, no one's quite solid, but I'd say that Darth slightly edges out the rest. Basically even for the rest. Once again, Darth is above all other runners. - Near the end of voting is suddenly alright with YellowInk/DarthTheinAn being voted in together. - Once again, supports DTA over YellowInk, mentions him having no clues connected to him again as well. Wants LaXer to die first. - Mentions that the active posters will probably not be protected tonight, is disagreed with by BrownBear and LunarDestiny is quick succession. - "bedtime, SAT test tomorrow". - Doesn't support YellowInk's plan to have a minimum posting limit per cycle on players. "Will post later when things occur to me". - More supporting activeness over inactiveness. - Posts about the probability of Mafia hitting medic/DT randomly. - For lynching Deucegladlier based on inactivity. - Argues against lynching MooCow, reiterates that we should kill off Deuce. - Says that MooCow talking a lot should be an easy indicator of if he's Mafia. - Reactionary post to the vigi modkill, as well as to MooCow being green. - Comment to LunarDestiny about it being okay that he switched to MooCow. - More probabilities of hitting blue roles. - Responds to an analysis done by Zyrre (who says he has a high chance of being Mafia) for three posts in a row. - Clarifies what Darth means when he says he's half-naked after a bodyguard goes down. - Talks about the clues against 3 Lions, without directly talking about 3 Lions at the time (this was after LD posted his cluework). - From here out it's just "don't kill me, lawl!" It still seems quite odd that he's giving up here without any sort of struggle. It feels almost like strong-arming the vote towards lynching him. Observed Relations: + Show Spoiler + Heavily for: DarthTheinAn For: crate Neutral: zeks, BrownBear, LunarDestiny Against: Heavily Against: ~ Conclusions: + Show Spoiler + More than ever, I'm worried about Darth being Mafia. This is solely because of the fact that Onihunter was so consistently against voting for YellowInk, but almost immediately for voting for Darth. Several other things to note. First, he makes liberal use of the "I'll be back later" types of posts, with no content to them. While these can certainly be legitimate, I have noted their danger before. These are filler posts, even if you do come back and post something later. It mimics activity so that the mental slate with your name on it and a timer next to it is wiped clean from other posters minds. Second, Zyrre is very unlikely to be Mafia in my eyes. He targeted Onihunter specifically in his analysis (who responded defensively), as well as mentioned 3 Lions being a suspect of his. Third, he had an pro-active stance against inactivity, frequently calling for people to post. This shows to anybody who hasn't encountered this before how a Mafia member can try to blend in well by posting a lot, seemingly supporting town ideals, but really adding no content. Finally, it seems very unlikely to me that Deucegladlier is Mafia, due to Onihunter's strong stance for lynching him. And now, to ease my curiousity: (all in order of occurrence) Compilation of Heavy/Quick Darth Supporters: + Show Spoiler + LunarDestiny (because of previous game with and clues/behavior against YellowInk) LittleChava (because of lack of clues as well as posting) Onihunter (because of general "vibe") BrownBear (because of lack of clues as well as posting/previous game with) Compilation of Those With Issues Towards YellowInk in Mayoral Race: + Show Spoiler + zeks (clues as validation) DarthTheinAn (theory on Mafia-plan, later on clues as validation) Onihunter (clues against/aggressive campaigning) MTF (clues as validation) MooCow (clues against/aggressive campaigning) Hugoboss21 (clues against) Pyr0ma5ta (clues against) LunarDestiny ("suspicious actions") deconduo (aggressive campaigning) littlechava (because of clues against and behavior) BrownBear (clues against/aggressive campaigning) DCLXVI (aggression) Compilation of "Need Mayor With No Clues" Sorts: + Show Spoiler + Onihunter BumAtLarge TL;DR Version: + Show Spoiler + 1. I believe Zyrre, TheGilaBoy, and Deucegladlier have a high chance of being town-aligned. 2. I am worried (not at all certain, but worried) about Darth being Mafia. 3. Be cautious of activity/pro-active town stances with no other valuable substance. It is easy to post in support of something. It is far more time consuming to put forth a new (or good) argument. 4. Also, be on the look-out for all people posting excuses for not being active/that they'll post later even though they clearly are on the computer long enough to post (looking at BumAtLarge here) now. More complicated reasons are more suspicious than regular ones. Finally, one thing we haven't considered in clearing Darth on the Onihunter kill: Suppose that Darth is in contact with a legitimate DT, who was pressing Darth to announce for him that he'd cluechecked Onihunter? This gives him motivation without establishing any credibility towards his being town, and would help to explain why Onihunter went down without a fight. I guess it's up to me to analyze this gem. He not afraid to be organized and uses color coding format appealing to the eye. He's not afraid to admit he uses the format of someone else. He knows you're fucking lazy so he puts a lovely TL;DR for your convenience you ungrateful piece of pie. Thinks that mafia always lie. If mafia always lie, can they lie about lying? therefore speaking truth? Or is a lie just the absence of truth, like evil is the absence of good? But then would that make a simple object like a rock evil? Does it possess no good? No, it does, because it serves it's purpose, which is to exist (it does that quite well thank you very much), which is the simplest form of all religions, that everything serves a purpose. But on a mental plane, is this true? How are we to know our purpose? It is said to come naturally, that you find it. Let me relate a story that happened to me that I hold very dear to my heart, I was in my senior year of highschool, my gym teacher would make us run laps for apparently no reason. We would test what it was that triggered him to make us run all of a sudden. It came to me that he was up to no good, and that he was going to make trouble. I challenged him to a fight and he nailed me in the eye that was completely unfair, and my mama said you're moving to with your auntie and uncle in bel air. I whistled for a cab and when it came near the license plate said fresh and there was dice in the mirror. If anything Id say that this cab was rare but i said nah forget it yo homes to bel air. Pulled up to the house around seven or eight and I yelled to the cab yo homes smell ya later. Looked up at my kingdom I was finally there sit on my throne as the prince of bel air. And that leads us mostly to believe just about anything in this world that will give us any semblance of comfort. Which ultimately leads me to believe that MTF is the godfather with a cool little hat and everything. Fedora? and a pinstriped suit. | ||
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
Instead of posting videos and pics, he writes hilarious stuffs. | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
The outcome if bumatlarge is green: you lynch me and I'm mafia. Mafia are down to 3, with only 3 voting power. Town has 13 - 1 - 2 (assuming perfect hits), 10 vs 3, still pretty good odds, especially if we still have 2 dts and 2 medics and 1-2 veterans in there. We are lynching two people today. Which means Town could be 13-2-2=9. And during that day we would be 9 townie vs 4 mafia with 9 vs 6 voting power. Considering bumatlarge's reaction though, I'd say he's most likely mafia. | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
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zeks
Canada1068 Posts
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On June 12 2010 12:18 Misder wrote: The more I look at it, the more it seems that DCLXVI is in the mafia. Clues: Day 1: Speeding car (profile references Humvee) Day 2: Power overwhelms barth (pic references Dragonball Z power level) Day 3: Die together (like littlechava says) Seems like hes on the side of onihunter... If he is mafia, then it seems like TheGilaBoy is also mafia. This post also shows that a mafia member may have switched to lynch MooCow because he was more active townie. Voted for: YI for mayor. MooCow for lynch (switched from deuce, one of the first) | ||
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Hugoboss21
France346 Posts
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
On June 13 2010 23:50 Misder wrote: I had a recent surge of activity because I only have the computer for so long. Thats why I try to get all my posts in that 1 to 2 hours I have. As for pointing fingers everywhere- I don't really have a specific target that I'm pointing at. I'm suspicious, but I'm not absolutely positive. However, I do bring up alternatives to what is happening; I think this is thought provoking and so that we don't make any rash decisions. I did not "follow" mafia voting. I came up with my own analysis, and followed through. If you have a problem with that, I don't know what I should do. Follow the other townines? | ||
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
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