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TL Mafia XXVI - Page 69

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LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
June 12 2010 22:01 GMT
#1361
From your tone darth, I can assume the dt got nothing or at least not a mafia.

Couple pages back, Deuce popped another lame one liner out of nowhere. If he is town, that makes sense since he probably don't care about the game and decides post something just for the heck of it.

If he is mafia, he should have gotten a lot of messages from other mafias begging him to post enough to stay alive (not getting modkilled). I think this is very possible since he had shown he doesn't care about the game. By post one comment per day, he avoids screwing the mafia by not getting modkilled.

I don't think we should use one lynch for him if there is a better target. But if we don't have a strong read of another possible mafia, then he is a good lynch.
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
June 12 2010 22:07 GMT
#1362
I don't want to vote early. Maybe we can get a better sense who is mafia before time runs short.

AND a message to inactive townies

If you don't want to play, then don't play and DON'T POST.
However, you got found new interest to play. Then help us out. Thank.
DarthThienAn
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States2734 Posts
June 12 2010 22:10 GMT
#1363
Yeah, my DT didn't get anything.

I'll agree with your comments on Deuce. But I'm sure there's a better target out there >_>.
www.cstarleague.com | Love is like playing the piano. First you must learn to play by the rules, then you must forget the rules and play from your heart.
crate
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States2474 Posts
June 12 2010 22:13 GMT
#1364
On June 13 2010 07:10 DarthThienAn wrote:
But I'm sure there's a better target out there >_>.

Why don't you go find one then?
We did. You did. Yes we can. No. || http://crawl.akrasiac.org/scoring/players/crate.html || twitch.tv/crate3333
Zyrre
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Sweden291 Posts
June 12 2010 22:18 GMT
#1365
Hitting vigilante + bodyguard and then bodyguard + pardoner two days in a row indicates mafia had extensive knowledge over townie roles. Onihunter also broke out the math to justify it as probable right after the vigi + bg hit. MTF's claim to fame happened before the first double blue hit. This could mean that MTF is mafia, or that MTF + DTA is mafia(im assuming the potential mafia posing as medic would only roleclaim to YI if their intention was to get him + bodyguards, therefore we can't know who he is). Now it does seem rather unreasonable for mafia to waste another hit AFTER that, though the possibility is still there.

I'm mainly throwing this out there as an idea for discussions about the next lynching. I think we can find some better targets for today, I'll be posting my ideas later.
"Take the risk of thinking for yourself, much more happiness, truth, beauty, and wisdom will come to you that way."
Zyrre
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Sweden291 Posts
June 12 2010 22:32 GMT
#1366
Later = now apparently (during sc2 beta downtime)
I think zeks is a good target along with either hugo or sputnik. Seems like sputnik might be modkilled though, so I'd say zeks and Hugoboss21.

zeks for all the previous reasons stated.
Hugoboss21 seems like a mafia doing the bare minimum to me.

I'll hold off on voting in case anyone convinces me to vote for someone else
"Take the risk of thinking for yourself, much more happiness, truth, beauty, and wisdom will come to you that way."
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
June 12 2010 23:19 GMT
#1367
I'm absolutely baffled no one is calling darth out on this. The chances of this happening are ludicrous unless somehow laxer let it slip to a random that he was a BG, WHY WOULD HE DO THAT EVER. And then after they lets say "figure out" who the BG is, they hit..... yellow? Um ok. Why would you go for the pardoner, a role that really cant hurt mafia too much, rather then the mayor who gets that 3x? I think you all need to get your heads out of your asses and think this through.
Together but separate, like oatmeal
DarthThienAn
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States2734 Posts
June 12 2010 23:19 GMT
#1368
deconduo:
+ Show Spoiler +

Game posts start at:
235 - no content.
271 - says that Yellow is pushing hard, potential GF. Similar comments as everyone else. Asks for people to verify me.
378 - says he's voting for me because YI is too suspicious.
438 - elaboration.
590 - nothing
670/671 - says lynching scummy behavior better than clues.
717/718 - votes to lynch inactives.
804 - votes for Deuce.
881 - "gets a bad vibe from littlechava and AFJ"
1060 - reason for his staying on Deuce = asleep.
1135 - doubtful on my call on onihunter.
1202 - votes for onihunter
1352 - more doubt on me and my DT claim against onihunter.

Quick thoughts - his posting is extremely lacking, now that I look at it. The fact that he thinks onihunter might be miller and is constantly doubting people we now know are town is... interesting.


www.cstarleague.com | Love is like playing the piano. First you must learn to play by the rules, then you must forget the rules and play from your heart.
DarthThienAn
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States2734 Posts
June 12 2010 23:22 GMT
#1369
BTW guys. Second DT PMed me. bumatlarge got cluechecked to be mafia.
www.cstarleague.com | Love is like playing the piano. First you must learn to play by the rules, then you must forget the rules and play from your heart.
DarthThienAn
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States2734 Posts
June 12 2010 23:23 GMT
#1370
I'm not voting yet cuz I have a day to vote and still thinking about my second target.
www.cstarleague.com | Love is like playing the piano. First you must learn to play by the rules, then you must forget the rules and play from your heart.
zeks
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Canada1068 Posts
June 12 2010 23:25 GMT
#1371
CLUE CHECK? wow then he's 100% guaranteed (if i'm not mistaken). Which clue was it?
"Two roads diverged in a wood, and I-- I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference."
DarthThienAn
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States2734 Posts
June 12 2010 23:27 GMT
#1372
o my bad it was a rolecheck.
www.cstarleague.com | Love is like playing the piano. First you must learn to play by the rules, then you must forget the rules and play from your heart.
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
June 12 2010 23:27 GMT
#1373
And did that medic still not come out through someone and clear MTF? We keep talking about all this improbability of things and classifying complete random scenarios as certainties. Half of you are all following this "His posts are pretty, he must be town" mindset, and then you take anything that is less then efficient for mafia to do an act of a townie. This is a game of psychology and logic. Not one of gut instincts and chance, at least not to the point where you depend on it.

But who cares right, apparently no one. This game will either boil down to mafia being downright stupid, or mafia playing us all an laughing at how retarded we act at times. Really felt I shoulda played this differently in the beginning. Damn my coming of age!
Together but separate, like oatmeal
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
June 12 2010 23:31 GMT
#1374
Are you fucking kidding me?

Oh fucking great now im a fucking miller. GENIUS ROLE FLAMEWHEEL. Sure lets fuck up common sense and and everything with complete uncertainty. What did you expect bum? Of course this would happen yeah of course. Now I have to get lynched no matter what because some people in clues were looking at things funny and you get blessed with this wonderful outcome! Oh look now hes starting to post decent stuff! LETS SCREW HIM OVER!
Together but separate, like oatmeal
MTF
Profile Blog Joined January 2005
United States1739 Posts
June 12 2010 23:31 GMT
#1375
Time for some posting analysis on Oni/3 Lions, with the aid of knowing that they were Mafia this time.

(gonna steal crate's format, kinda, because I'm shorter on time than usual)


3 Lions:
+ Show Spoiler +

Summary:
+ Show Spoiler +

- Points a clue at MooCow, Darth later comments on it being a "really nice catch".
- Points clues at MooCow, Onihunter, Zeks, and Tyranos_Nivek.
- "Sorry for inactivity" post.
- Points clues at TheGilaBoy, Tyranos_Nivek, and Littlechava, which helps start off a bandwagon towards killing TheGilaBoy.


Observed Relations:
+ Show Spoiler +

None, never talked to anyone directly. Just posted clues.


Conclusions:
+ Show Spoiler +

3 Lions was probably just trying to look somewhat active by doing very light cluework.

The fact that he implicated one of his teammates in a post means very little when the way he did it was weak. However, he later very specifically points at TheGilaBoy, singling him out with stronger connections than to either Littlechava or Tyranos_Nivek.

I believe this clears TheGilaBoy of suspicion, at this point. I do not think Mafia would have put so much pressure on one of their own in that way. Littlechava's clue connection was very weak, though, so the suspicion is not cleared there.



Onihunter:
+ Show Spoiler +

Summary:
+ Show Spoiler +

- Asks zeks why it's good to lynch inactives, cites self-newbieness.
- Posts about there being a lot to read. Mentions Darth's cluelist (he lists zeks, Tyranos, and TheGilaBoy) as being a good place to start looking for people to kill once the time comes. Reiterates newbieness.
- Is against voting for YellowInk, claims he wants someone in that has no clues attached to him.
- Continues to mention that we need someone without clues in office, continues being against electing YellowInk.
- "bedtime, will read when I return kthxbai" type post.
- "I'm back, gonna catch up now" type post. (Told you guys to look out for these)
- "Caught up, response now" type post. Supports Darth, still against YellowInk.
- Supports crate's strategy, talks about "mafia's evil hands", and calls out the inactives.
- Agrees again with crate about wanting more information from candidates. Reiterates his strong support of Darth. Says he wants to lynch inactives, again.
- Tentively agrees with LunarDestiny's way-out-there suggestion to lynch the Pardoner upon election. Posts general comments about the candidates:

On June 04 2010 14:21 onihunter wrote:
Darth: General agreement is he posts like a townie, so that's a plus. Also experienced, but that's neither a plus nor a minus. He also seems clear-headed.

Yellow: Posts a LOT. Seems quite defensive when criticized, and I can't really say that I like the guy =/. Just personal preference though, nothing really concrete. Also inciting lots of arguing and conflict that is unnecessary at this point in the game.

Beardude: I really liked him until he responded to Inkguy's attack. His responses weren't that coherent though imo, and he seemed really emotional in that post to me. Also he himself stated that it's personal between the two now, sort of alienating me. However, he IS running for pardoner specifically.

Zeks: There isn't really that much past the few posts that contained mistakes, so can't say much. Suspicious in that he's not a newbie to this game, but I think it's forgivable.

Overall, no one's quite solid, but I'd say that Darth slightly edges out the rest. Basically even for the rest.


Once again, Darth is above all other runners.
- Near the end of voting is suddenly alright with YellowInk/DarthTheinAn being voted in together.
- Once again, supports DTA over YellowInk, mentions him having no clues connected to him again as well. Wants LaXer to die first.
- Mentions that the active posters will probably not be protected tonight, is disagreed with by BrownBear and LunarDestiny is quick succession.
- "bedtime, SAT test tomorrow".
- Doesn't support YellowInk's plan to have a minimum posting limit per cycle on players. "Will post later when things occur to me".
- More supporting activeness over inactiveness.
- Posts about the probability of Mafia hitting medic/DT randomly.
- For lynching Deucegladlier based on inactivity.
- Argues against lynching MooCow, reiterates that we should kill off Deuce.
- Says that MooCow talking a lot should be an easy indicator of if he's Mafia.
- Reactionary post to the vigi modkill, as well as to MooCow being green.
- Comment to LunarDestiny about it being okay that he switched to MooCow.
- More probabilities of hitting blue roles.
- Responds to an analysis done by Zyrre (who says he has a high chance of being Mafia) for three posts in a row.
- Clarifies what Darth means when he says he's half-naked after a bodyguard goes down.
- Talks about the clues against 3 Lions, without directly talking about 3 Lions at the time (this was after LD posted his cluework).
- From here out it's just "don't kill me, lawl!" It still seems quite odd that he's giving up here without any sort of struggle. It feels almost like strong-arming the vote towards lynching him.


Observed Relations:
+ Show Spoiler +

Heavily for: DarthTheinAn
For: crate
Neutral: zeks, BrownBear, LunarDestiny
Against: YellowInk
Heavily Against: ~


Conclusions:
+ Show Spoiler +

More than ever, I'm worried about Darth being Mafia. This is solely because of the fact that Onihunter was so consistently against voting for YellowInk, but almost immediately for voting for Darth.

Several other things to note. First, he makes liberal use of the "I'll be back later" types of posts, with no content to them. While these can certainly be legitimate, I have noted their danger before. These are filler posts, even if you do come back and post something later. It mimics activity so that the mental slate with your name on it and a timer next to it is wiped clean from other posters minds.

Second, Zyrre is very unlikely to be Mafia in my eyes. He targeted Onihunter specifically in his analysis (who responded defensively), as well as mentioned 3 Lions being a suspect of his.

Third, he had an pro-active stance against inactivity, frequently calling for people to post. This shows to anybody who hasn't encountered this before how a Mafia member can try to blend in well by posting a lot, seemingly supporting town ideals, but really adding no content.

Finally, it seems very unlikely to me that Deucegladlier is Mafia, due to Onihunter's strong stance for lynching him.


And now, to ease my curiousity:
(all in order of occurrence)

Compilation of Heavy/Quick Darth Supporters:
+ Show Spoiler +
LunarDestiny (because of previous game with and clues/behavior against YellowInk)
LittleChava (because of lack of clues as well as posting)
Onihunter (because of general "vibe")
BrownBear (because of lack of clues as well as posting/previous game with)


Compilation of Those With Issues Towards YellowInk in Mayoral Race:
+ Show Spoiler +
zeks (clues as validation)
DarthTheinAn (theory on Mafia-plan, later on clues as validation)
Onihunter (clues against/aggressive campaigning)
MTF (clues as validation)
MooCow (clues against/aggressive campaigning)
Hugoboss21 (clues against)
Pyr0ma5ta (clues against)
LunarDestiny ("suspicious actions")
deconduo (aggressive campaigning)
littlechava (because of clues against and behavior)
BrownBear (clues against/aggressive campaigning)
DCLXVI (aggression)


Compilation of "Need Mayor With No Clues" Sorts:
+ Show Spoiler +
Onihunter
BumAtLarge



TL;DR Version:
+ Show Spoiler +

1. I believe Zyrre, TheGilaBoy, and Deucegladlier have a high chance of being town-aligned.
2. I am worried (not at all certain, but worried) about Darth being Mafia.
3. Be cautious of activity/pro-active town stances with no other valuable substance. It is easy to post in support of something. It is far more time consuming to put forth a new (or good) argument.
4. Also, be on the look-out for all people posting excuses for not being active/that they'll post later even though they clearly are on the computer long enough to post (looking at BumAtLarge here) now. More complicated reasons are more suspicious than regular ones.


Finally, one thing we haven't considered in clearing Darth on the Onihunter kill: Suppose that Darth is in contact with a legitimate DT, who was pressing Darth to announce for him that he'd cluechecked Onihunter? This gives him motivation without establishing any credibility towards his being town, and would help to explain why Onihunter went down without a fight.
Think. :)
crate
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States2474 Posts
June 12 2010 23:34 GMT
#1376
@Zyrre: I'm not convinced there was a mass leak to the mafia. The only person we know for sure that the mafia hit because of his role is LaXer.

Look at AFJ's posting on Day 1 (i.e. there wasn't much and it was bad) then look at it on Day 2. He stepped up bigtime. Yes, he had the wrong target, as we promptly learned when the day ended. But I conceded that AFJ's arguments had merit even though I didn't agree with his conclusion. The thing here is that AFJ had some nice thinking and, importantly, he got the town to listen to him. This makes him a dangerous player for the mafia regardless of role.

Pyro certainly could have been leaked (but from the bit of his posting I saw I think he was too smart to tell anyone, so I'd suspect a DT checked him and then told a mafia in this case. But we can't prove this now anyway), but he equally well could have been chosen as an exceptionally safe target. What were the chances he was going to be protected Night 2? After just getting banned?

Obviously the mafia did not hit YellowInk because of his role (vanilla townie). Obviously the mafia did hit LaXer because they knew his role 100%. But that's the only case where we know this for sure.

Just noticed there's more posts coming up as I refreshed. Gonna go read those now.
We did. You did. Yes we can. No. || http://crawl.akrasiac.org/scoring/players/crate.html || twitch.tv/crate3333
MTF
Profile Blog Joined January 2005
United States1739 Posts
June 12 2010 23:44 GMT
#1377
On June 13 2010 08:22 DarthThienAn wrote:
BTW guys. Second DT PMed me. bumatlarge got cluechecked to be mafia.


I am publicly requesting this second DT get into contact with me. I have already PMed Darth asking for your identity.

The reasoning for this is such: BumAtLarge would have to have been checked during the previous night cycle, during a period when he was not under high suspicion. Then, suddenly we have the second bodyguard die in as many days, with a hit on YellowInk (which could not have been coincidence in any way) as well. Darth is under suspicion for obvious reasons, and publicly requests for the second DT to get into contact with him after I've named BumAtLarge as my highest suspect. However, I only did this after night ended.

It just feels like an attempt to sway town away from discussion about last nights kills, using my suspicions and support to advance a movement in that direction. So, I'd like to know who you are, second DT, so I can examine you for hints of red.
Think. :)
MTF
Profile Blog Joined January 2005
United States1739 Posts
June 13 2010 00:05 GMT
#1378
Bum brought up something to me in a PM that I forgot to mention before. Mafia most likely did not see the modkill on 3 Lions coming, and thus did not foresee the KP reduction that would come with it.

Connect the above with the following scenario:

Day 3: One bodyguard and a vigilante die.
Night 3: Onihunter is lynched (after 3 Lions is pretty much guaranteed to be lynched) on Darth's information. Mafia would not have lost KP if 3 Lions had not been modkilled.
Day 4: The other bodyguard and YellowInk die. (Again, no way for this to be a coincidence.)
Night 4: The person I name as my main suspect is announced as Mafia by Darth in the midst of criticism against him. Meaning the DT had to have checked him prior to the deaths of Pyromasta/YellowInk. Furthermore, why did this person not contact me after seeing I put out my cluework/suspicions? If he had verified Bum as Mafia, why wait until someone asked rather than find someone who was already very likely to vote for him?

It feels, right now, like the death of Onihunter was a ploy to give Darth credit the night before they made their big move on YellowInk. He was the one most likely to come under heavy scrutiny due to the scenario.

Too many things aren't adding up here, regardless of whether or not Darth is Mafia. I am not voting for Bumatlarge at this time.
Think. :)
MTF
Profile Blog Joined January 2005
United States1739 Posts
June 13 2010 00:07 GMT
#1379
Something I forgot to add is that Darth would not have gained credit with the town if 3 Lions were lynched, as town was ready to bandwagon him to the gallows without any DT help.
Think. :)
DarthThienAn
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States2734 Posts
June 13 2010 00:09 GMT
#1380
MTF, if I'm mafia and have been in contact with my first DT since day 2, why wouldn't I have killed him by now? If you're gonna say that he had a third townie to accuse me if he died, then that's easily solvable - mafia get 3 KP in the beginning, 2 last night. Just kill the DT and the confirmed townie, makes for a nice clean job and the town loses a DT.

As a mafia, why would I allow myself to get into a position where I am forced to out my fellow mafia member, when I could have prevented it by just killing the DT and the townie in the first place?

Of course, this depends on the DT having claimed to me day 2 a bit - but when he posts, he can confirm that as well. I was approached after night 1, partway into day 2.


And because I think the whole "hit and let MTF get 'saved' so that he can get credibility" scheme is ridiculous, I'm trusting you with the name right now.
www.cstarleague.com | Love is like playing the piano. First you must learn to play by the rules, then you must forget the rules and play from your heart.
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