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On June 07 2010 04:06 littlechava wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2010 03:58 crate wrote:On June 07 2010 03:08 YellowInk wrote:
Whoever you are, be sure to claim at least to him since you know he's town (the vigs couldn't hit on night 1). I'm not sure what you're suggesting here. He's suggesting that the medic who saved MTF come out and tell MTF that he's a blue role/they're both on the same side. Questionable tactic though, since MTF probably wouldn't be able to trust the guy - it could just be some mafia member trying to gain his trust. MTF has no way of verifying whether the person PMing him actually saved him.
How do you know it was a medic who saved MTF? He could be a veteran (which would also explain why in his very first post he says he's not running for mayor; veteran is the worst role for the town to elect).
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On June 07 2010 08:15 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:Show nested quote +AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Just for the record, I had a feeling that bill murray was red since the first day as evidenced by my first few posts and vote Which really doesn't match up with AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
I don't like to participate and throw accusations out a lot in day 1 of a mafia game because there isn't a lot of evidence to go byand it just serves to confuse. in post 599. (I was reading over that previous game as it happened and I thought there was plenty of information on Day 1 in it myself). The point is that even though I had a feeling about billmurray, I did not push it and try to get him lynched early on because I knew how easy it is to misclassify people early on.
I still feel like there's some inconsistency here; Day 1 should not be unimportant. Being active on Day 1 is as beneficial as being active later (though I personally feel like there's more to discuss when Day 1 has a lynch instead of an election, but I digress...).
AcrossFiveJulys wrote:Show nested quote +
I also think it's odd that AcrossFiveJulys tells Thegilaboy to look for clues pointing at AFJ in the Day 2 post (in post 657). I'm not sure what, if anything, to make of this.
I have no idea what you're talking about here, care to explain? Perhaps you misunderstood my post? by the way, how are you able to number all of people's posts in this thread? Is there an automated post tracking bot, because I can't find it.
I just found it odd that you'd specifically tell him to look for clues that pointed at you rather than someone else. Like I said, I don't know if this means anything.
You can find post numbers by looking at post histories, which I conveniently linked for you in my post above. Click the name.
AcrossFiveJulys wrote:Show nested quote +
Furthermore he claims that he's been tracking certain people's behavior (post 599) without posting any thoughts on whom or why. I definitely want to see what AFJ has to say today and I'm interested in whom he was watching.
I've been tracking littlechava, you (crate), and zeks. I'll be posting later on my thoughts of each.
Looking forward to it.
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Working on looking at Zyrre and MooCow now; I've noticed Deucegladlier's post and vote and I agree it's very strange. In particular, there's no benefit to the town if you're just going to post a one-line post each day and then vote for yourself or someone at random. There is some benefit if you're mafia, because it keeps you alive and that gives the mafia more KP and more time.
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LunarDestiny wrote:
You see that"#" thing next to "quote." Click on it and look at the address bar above.
Actually this has changed, it doesn't show which post number it is in the thread any more (though it used to work that way).
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Oh btw I think I miscounted onihunters posts last time, I think he had 28 instead of 30. Really doesn't matter, I just tossed that in because I was going through the posts anyway and it takes me all of a minute to count (incorrectly, apparently!). I think the rest are correct but I haven't double-checked.
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Zyrre:
Posts since the game began: 9 (starting at 250) plus one vote
Voting History: Day 1 vote for YellowInk at June 05 2010 00:03 (preceding post 407 by about an hour and a half)
Notes:
Says nothing game-related until halfway through Day 1 (post 407); suspect zeks and DCLXVI (post 542); a couple posts on clues (440, 673); some suspicion of Misder with note about Thegilaboy (684).
Thoughts:
Another pretty inactive player. I'm not a fan of waiting an hour and a half after you vote to explain it.... The posts between when he voted and when he explained his vote are significant, including several people proclaiming support of YellowInk (and you see that Zyrre begins a quick run of votes for YellowInk in the voting thread) and YellowInk calling out inactives in the thread. I really don't see a reason to wait for so long before you say why you voted.
I think his posts about clues are solid, but like I said I'm bad at clues so I'm not going to put much weight into this. It's easy for mafia to post good fake clue analysis (see, again, Pyrry's game for a great example--SugiuraMidori was doing most of the clue analysis, and it seemed legit, but she was red) too though. (This isn't to suggest that looking at clues is mafia-like, just that it's an easy way to hide).
His suspicion on DCL comes from clues (post 542); his suspicions of zeks and Misder come from posts (542, 684). However, Zyrre does not post why he thinks Misder is suspicious based on posting history....
I'd like to see more concrete arguments for his ideas. I see the potential for good reasoning but I don't see it being shown to the town.
Possible connections: ???
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MooCow:
Posts since the game began: 34 (starting at 153) plus one vote
Voting History: Day 1 vote for DarthThienAn at June 05 2010 06:08 (immediately preceding post 452)
Notes:
Begins with clue analysis (168-180); suspicious of candidates, support MTF (284, 401, 415, 475); mafia likely have one elected position (401, 415, 452, 475, etc.); new player with questions (various); notes LaXer and 3 Lions Night 1 posts (517); returns to clues on Day 2 (614-615); don't forget zeks (674);
Thoughts:
The obvious thing that stands out is his repeated emphasis that it's likely the mafia have at least one of the elected roles. If any of them chose to run, that's probably true, since a mafioso candidate getting no votes is basically unheard of and the unanimity of the election was quite striking.
(It's possible that no mafia chose to run. It's unlikely there are no previous players on the mafia side (I suspect flamewheel/BC didn't pick roles entirely randomly) but a couple names that I could have seen running like MTF, LunarDestiny, and myself chose not to run ... so it's possible that no mafioso tried to get elected. This happened in Pyrry's game, for instance.)
He echoes onihunter's thoughts at times on Day 1 (note that both are new players posting the same things). It's interesting that the only person he mentions he's confident in being town is MTF (unless I missed someone); he is suspicious of YellowInk, zeks, and Darth.
His content-to-post-number ratio is definitely lower than I'd like. Note that unlike onihunter, he doesn't just go along with the town consensus (he's probably still suspicious of YellowInk and Darth). What I'd really like is more analysis from him. He calls out Darth and YellowInk basically on being elected, says he's suspicious of zeks but doesn't post a concise, coherent argument. He looks to me like he's more firmly town-aligned than onihunter because he's not afraid to post his general ideas, but he doesn't do much convincing.
Possible connections: onihunter, MTF
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@LunarDestiny (and the rest of you), re: Deucegladlier:
Not only is his posting in this thread poor ... it's 100% worthless. The only reason he's posting is to avoid being modkilled.
The only way he could be contributing to the town right now is if he's in PM contact with anyone here or if he's a medic or DT who's doing something. If he's been PM'ing with you, I'd like to know about it.
Any way you stack it his play has been completely unhelpful and he cannot benefit the town even as just another vote if he doesn't even read enough to vote for someone other than himself. It's actually better for a townie to just accept being modkilled than it is to effectively abstain and never contribute whereas mafia do have an interest to stay alive even if they're not going to play (like I said before).
I'm voting for him on this basis, but we should keep looking at people because we have more lynches in the future. (Or, who knows, maybe Deuce will show up and surprise us with some game-related posts).
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On June 07 2010 09:50 pyr0ma5ta wrote:
I'm still not clear on why we want to take a whack at a guy who's not even been implicated in any of the clues, which is the only solid thing we have to go on. There's legitimate reasons to stay under the radar early in the game as a blue/green player. I'm not defending being a useless player, but I still don't understand why we want to lynch inactives. We should take a crack at people for whom there is a relatively decent evidence trail, imo.
I'm still not clear on why we want to take a whack at a guy who's not even been implicated in any of the behavior analysis, which is the only solid thing we have to go on. There's legitimate reasons to stay under the radar early in the game as a blue/green player, but not legitimate reasons to play in a way that's 100% unhelpful (hence me asking anyone if he's done anything helpful, e.g. PM useful stuff). I'm attacking being a useless player playing in a way that is only ever sensible if you're mafia. We should take a crack at people for whom there is a relatively decent evidence trail, imo.
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As far as clues go, go look at any past TL game with clues (Pyrry's game; TL Mafia VIII; and TL Mafia 5 are games I've read that contained clues).
(Note that while MrBabyHands claims to have some clue analysis in TL Mafia 5 and does target the mafia, the actual analysis doesn't point to the right clues).
Red herrings crop up naturally when writing the posts, though they're usually not deliberately added. decafchicken is the most famous victim here and hence the running joke.
Historically TL mafia game clue analysis has been terribly ineffective. They're a great talking point and if you have other reasons to be suspicious you can then go look at clues and possibly get more suspicious ... but the fact that TL mafia games have been run without clues for a long time and the quality of the games has improved says something.
In my experiences following the threads here they've been mostly clue-less and in Pyrry's game (which I played in) the clues didn't help at all.
My stance on clues is just based on precedent.
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On a sort-of un-game-related note but relevant to activity, I start my internship tomorrow so I'm only going to be around in the evenings most likely.
I think with that I'll be off to bed for the night. Haven't thought much about double lynch myself, but I'll talk about it tomorrow.
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In case anyone is wondering, I am around, I am reading (I was catching up in the voting thread first), and having 11 hours cut out of your day to go to work means you have much less time for mafia.
I will be making substantial post(s) before I go to bed tonight and I probably won't be up much past 02:00 GMT (+00:00) tonight ... which is of course when the day ends. I'll stick around long enough to see the results if they're up quickly.
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Quick responses to stuff I've read:
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+ Show Spoiler +On June 07 2010 13:47 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2010 08:45 crate wrote:
I just found it odd that you'd specifically tell him to look for clues that pointed at you rather than someone else. Like I said, I don't know if this means anything.
Might as well wrap up the discussion on this point, since I still have no idea what you're talking about. Here's my post you referenced (657) Show nested quote + AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Whoa whoa overreacting a little bit aren't you? Day has just begun and no one has voted for you.
Trying to find very vague pointers to other people (me for example) to divert attention away from yourself also immediately after the clue was posted is highly suspect.
Perhaps you misunderstood the 2nd line? I'm just saying that he (gilga) defended himself by saying the clues could have pointed at other people including me, which is rather suspicious.
Oh, shit, yeah, I misread that.
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On June 07 2010 23:43 zeks wrote:
The question is which is more important for us right now:
Getting rid of lurking mafia just to reduce KP
or
Getting rid of active mafia that's screwing around with the town and still reduce KP
They're both equally good imo. Getting rid of mafia, full stop, is what matters here.
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On June 08 2010 08:09 BrownBear wrote:
It would be interesting to have everyone who leaves their vote on Deuce explain why they left their vote on Deuce. If nothing else, it would be good at rooting out the guys who log on once to vote and post and are then gone for the rest of the day.
I'm personally leaving my vote on Deuce because
1) If he's not red he's the most fucking useless player in TL mafia history and is actually playing worse than if he'd just done nothing and gotten modkilled.
2) If he's red then he might actually be making some sense.
Once I mull over the rest of what I've read I will be back, but I need a break for a bit first. Keep looking for good targets; I'll comment on what I've seen when I get back.
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Since I didn't say anything about this earlier because I thought it was obvious ...
Let's ignore clues for a second. Everyone who thought that ElyAs or barth would be medic protected, please raise your hand.
I'm waiting.
Oh, right, none of you did. How about how many of you thought they were worth killing through possible Veteran protection?
MTF took the third hit guys. Maybe Flamewheel decided to toss the third mafioso into the clues anyway, maybe it's a red herring, maybe it's hinting at something like blink.
The only ever reasonable explanation for MTF to lie about getting hit is if he's Godfather claiming Veteran and the mafia stacked hits. I don't buy that either. Go work through the logic yourself.
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Re: AFJ vs MooCow
Yeah, MooCow claim's he's new. He certainly hasn't played in any past TL mafia game. Last game I was in, another new player game (Pyrry's game, which is why I reference it, because I remember what happened) I gave a lot of people too much credit. Personally I ignored his rule-check and newbie-claim posts entirely because I can't decide whether they should point me one way or the other.
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On June 08 2010 10:27 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:Ok omnihunter here's something that I haven't mentioned about him yet: Show nested quote +On June 07 2010 05:09 MooCow wrote:
In one of the mafia threads I think it was some kind of Russian war as soon as the game started 2 guys ( Chizenu(sp) and Mandongo(sp)) started killing each other and everyone seemed confused lol.
So he follows mafia threads but is still completely ignorant to rules and still posts like a retard?
Uh, dude, did you read that thread? It was a daykill game, it was one with Chezinu, the people playing in the game thought it was a clusterfuck. I think MooCow chancing upon that mafia thread and opening it did him more harm than good.
I think MooCow has a way to go to show he's pro-town and he hasn't improved since my post about him, true, but calling him on this is ridiculous.
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Oh by the way my above post is a bit less relevant than it was when I started writing it about an hour ago, I apologize.
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On June 08 2010 10:50 DarthThienAn wrote:Nice random-ass beginning to that post crate. I am DarthThienAn, and I approve of this message. 
Yes that's what I was referencing with my one hour remark.
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Man the way that broken quote got formatted is SO misleading.
How many mafia threads do you think he went through to check rules? Hell, let's ask him: MooCow, how many mafia threads did you glance through and what did you look at there?
Sure, I don't like him either
1) not reading the OP and asking questions that are pretty easy to answer
or
2) trying to make people think he's a stupid newbie
But in my experience those two are pretty equally likely in a game like this.
Well, with LD switching we might find out in about three minutes I suppose.
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On June 08 2010 10:59 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
holy shit
when the night post comes up im either going to fist pump or plan to get myself modkilled!
Quick question: How does getting yourself killed when you guess wrong ever help your team?
Two cases.
1) You are town. You think player A is mafia, you guess wrong. If you now push to get yourself killed, you hurt the town.
2) You are mafia. You claim in the thread that player A is mafia, you guess wrong. If you now push to get yourself killed, you hurt the mafia.
Don't pull this stunt, teks was gonna try it in Pyrry's game and I pointed out that this is just shitty play.
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On June 08 2010 11:01 DarthThienAn wrote:
no strategic modkills! lol.
By the wording, it's not even a strategic modkill because it doesn't help AFJ's team.
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Hey guys.
I think ... there might be MAFIA in this game.
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Oh fuck, MooCow can't answer my question now 
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I just want to evolve
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Triple kill on the town, one of whom was a vigi. That's most definitely not good.
Well, it's my bedtime. Sorry my posting today was not up to my usual standards. Maybe I can wake up early and get a look at this thread in the morning.
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On June 09 2010 04:41 MTF wrote:
crate - Still posting well. I don't like the numerous "I'm still here, don't worry" kind of posts, but the others he makes are quality enough for me to dispel most doubt.
Would it be better if I said nothing at all? Those posts are worthless game-wise, but making them forces me to post afterward or get called on it, and with how tired I've been at night if I didn't make posts like that believe me I wouldn't be posting.
MTF wrote:
Anybody saying that they have "a lot of reading to do" or "have to catch up", and then fail to post anything later. This is nothing more than filler people, and innocent or not, you shouldn't be doing it.
See?
When I say I'm going to catch up, I deliver. It may not end up at the quality I'd ideally want because of time constraints or me taking longer to make connections than more seasoned players, but I do what I say I will.
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zeks wrote:
I haven't personally gone through many Mafia games myself so I wouldn't know, but I would assume there would be a mix of active and inactive - and I still maintain that getting rid of the active ones is more important.
If you know a mafia, you kill that person. Period. Town's goal is first and foremost to reduce mafia KP.
Facts: Inactive mafia aren't gonna get any more obviously suspicious (unless by clues). Active mafia are either going to start making actually productive posts or they're going to be making not-town-productive posts and then it's on the town to realize this. They have the same chance of clue links.
This isn't to say I have a problem with you looking at and targeting MooCow. I didn't personally find him terribly suspicious, but I can see the argument for it and the onus was on him to step it up and he didn't. Looking at active posters is important ... but go list the actives for me, and then tell me how many of the mafia you think are in that list? It's not gonna be all six.
(As an aside: The last time you played mafia, every single member was inactive or posting nothing of substance for basically the entire game. The only one who even looked active was SuguiraMidori, and that was almost all bogus clue analysis and activity lists. I do think that Pyrry's game was an unusual case however; hence this being an aside).
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About LunarDestiny:
Darth wrote:
Things that stick out to me:
-Cries for medic protection. Possible mafia move to take medic protection away from other people – he emphasizes this more than he needs to which is why it sticks out (even doing a follow-up wondering why he wasn’t hit. An “innocent” act imo)
He could be an inexplicably paranoid town-aligned player as opposed to just being a mafia if you want to explain this. I don't think it's a good move, agreed.
The Darth -> Yellow switch is more significant (he may have been following the crowd on this one. Is he a sheep-herded townie, or is he a mafia trying to follow the bandwagon?). He doesn’t like Yellow, or his play style, but he votes for him because of Yellow’s “poor logic” which says that a poster as active as Yellow is probably not mafia. The one from last night is an interesting situation because he said so himself – whoever makes the killing switch is going to look really suspicious despite being “baller”.
The Darth -> Yellow switch didn't mean fuck-all because it was clear that you two were getting elected and I'm not convinced it matters too much whether (assuming for a second that one of you is a mafioso) the red gets Mayor or Pardoner.
Similarly, every vote switch from Deuce to MooCow doesn't really mean anything (he wasn't gonna die anyway) ... until you (Darth) switch and then suddenly it's a real possibility. This one definitely means more because it mattered.
I haven't had a chance to look back through his posts myself so I don't have an opinion on LunarDestiny yet. He's certainly not up there with MTF in terms of making his posts count, I know that much. I'll glance over his posts myself and say something before bed (see that MTF? I'll be back!).
LunarDestiny wrote:
Again, I strongly against having a dt check on me since it might not prove anything (miller/godfather). Better solutions are to trust me or lynch me and get it done with.
If you know that a DT rolechecked someone and the DT was told "mafia" (let's ignore how you heard and why you trust the claim here) ... what do you do? Is there anyone who's been so obviously town-aligned that you'd bank on them being miller instead of mafia in this case?
I agree that if you were mafia you'd probably have been a good choice for godfather though, so I'm not sure rolechecking would help here. If someone did check you and get red I'd be for lynching you immediately, but I have my doubts that that'd happen even if you are mafia.
Darth wrote:
Or, if you were actually a townie, you would say "DON'T WASTE A LYNCH ON ME, FIND MAFIA."
Right, because that'd be real convincing. Ace says this game isn't about what you know, it's about what you can convince others to believe. I see nothing wrong with LunarDestiny explaining his actions and your one-line comeback adds nothing. How about considering whether his reasoning makes sense instead?
LunarDestiny wrote:
Now keeping me alive without doing anything is like adding a dead weight to town.
Damn right if you don't do anything you're dead weight.
But what makes you think you've lost the town's trust? I wasn't aware that Darth was the entire town.
You are way too fucking swingy man, stop letting your emotions play this game for you.
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Darth wrote:
We have to vote to use the double lynch the day before. So we'd have to agree on a double lynch on day 3, and we would use the double lynch day 4. A long process, but one I think would be good at this point. We should be able to get some good clues tonight / some more leads on people, etc.
Re: double lynch
If we don't use them soon there's not going to be much of a chance to use them in the future....
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BrownBear wrote:
The fact that my name is on this list is irrelevant to me, as I'm fairly confident I can defend myself well, and I have played very pro-town so far.
Not sure you've convinced me of that yet (though you'd probably be higher than the average player on my likely-to-be-town list). :p <- SEE THIS SMILEY? It means I'm not entirely serious.
BrownBear wrote:
[B]ut to be fair, we [town] got murdered in Mafia XXII because we placed too much faith in rolechecks, and we happened to rolecheck all the millers, then lynch them for being mafia. I'm not saying your argument is without merit, because what you're saying absolutely true. We just have to remember it swings both ways.
Do some math on that one. I'm not sure the better team wins every game in mafia because there's some "luck" involved (medic protections, DT checks, millers, etc.). If I'd been in that game I'd have gone off of Ace's rolechecks too because it was the correct decision. Again, if a DT check that you know comes from a legit DT turns up red, do you really advocate not acting on it?
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EPT
