EPTTL Mafia XXII
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KF91
Canada221 Posts
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KF91
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I'll be sharing my thoughts when I get back (In like 5 hours).As to what Radfield had said, I think inactivity might be a better criteria to look (Not saying that should be our only criteria) since a quiet, non-active townie is not going to help the town win. | ||
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On April 18 2010 06:17 Radfield wrote: + Show Spoiler + On April 18 2010 06:09 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: Yeah, we should plan for worst case scenarios - but we all know that the game will 95% not be over on day 3. This plays into the timing of double lynch. I think we should wait no longer than Day 4 to do it (meaning we vote for double lynch on Day 3). However this is all dependent on the events of the previous days. If we're in a hole, might want to start it on Day 3; or if we catch some reds via DT or they scumtell. Often i find these time limits for town are a useful thought experiment but rarely if ever do the games actually play out that way Day four seems like a long time to wait to use our first double lynch. We get three of them this game, and if people are talking about town possibly being in trouble by day 4 or 5 we may not get to use them all. That would be unfortunate. I'm not necessarily saying we should use them super early, but we should at least think about it. The danger would be trimming down our numbers even more if we're wrong, but that danger always exists with lynching. If we did vote for the double lynch, and then were unsure of who to take out, the option also exists to avoid a majority vote and not lynch a second person(although i'm not sure that makes sense to waste it like that). Also, is that even allowed? Can we vote for the double lynch and then end up only lynching one person? I think Radfield is right; we should use our double lynch earlier. Although people might argue that we have less of a chance to hit one mafia with the double lynch, it also lowers the chances of hitting a blue role if we do it on day one or two, instead of waiting until day 3 or 4. | ||
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On April 18 2010 07:08 Osmoses wrote: I'm a total newbie but wouldn't it make more sense to save double lynches as late as possible, when you have solid info to go on? I don't think so; because the later the game goes on, the ratio between mafia and townie gets closer to 1:1. So saying if we don't get any mafia kills at all for the first few days, mafia could easily rig the second lynch to kill a townie they want dead. | ||
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On April 13 2010 11:22 flamewheel91 wrote: Clues: No clues. I will not have the time, most likely. I don't think there will be any clues in the day posts with the deaths, unless you guys are referring to the reactions of people after the night post. O.o | ||
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On April 18 2010 08:52 Jugan wrote: I just wanna say i got the role that i usually am guys. i wanna see the clues already :O so bored First of all: On April 18 2010 07:26 KF91 wrote: I don't think there will be any clues in the day posts with the deaths, unless you guys are referring to the reactions of people after the night post. O.o And second, how are we supposed to believe you that you got the role that you usually get? From what I can search, you've only played in Incognito's Mafia XVI? | ||
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And what if some of the people decide not to follow along with your plan and the assassins kill whoever they want? How will we be able to weed out the assassins/reds from there? | ||
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On April 19 2010 06:32 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote: I thought Caller made a lot of sense, members of the mafia would want to post frequently early on so they are not lynched for being inactive but they also don't want to actually say much in their posts because the more they say the more chance of being proven scum. Very true. But I really don't think that's the trend that is happening in this game. Mostly because people are generally lazy during Day 1; there's nothing to work with usually and posting could result in a lynch. I'm leaning more towards the inactivity = suspicion of mafia, but I guess that would put me in the spotlight as well since I haven't posted that much since the game started. On April 19 2010 06:41 Fishball wrote: I was out for the second half of the day yesterday till late. I only woke up now. I'm curious why you call me out though. So BM made a list, similar to Ace's proposal in Caller's Russia Mafia, and a lot of people have already pointed out the flaws. It's hard to tell whether BM is an Assassin trying to hunt for other Assassins, or a plain townie just trying to contribute. Then we also have a small group of people jumping on Caller for being "inactive". I'm sorry I'm talking about BM's plan again, but I just wanted to share a bit more of my thoughts... Hmm... BM could be an assassin, but you never know with him because he's so... random XD (Not saying you're bad though BM! :D) I still see the flaws in BM's plan (Mostly because some people will not follow through with who they're supposed to kill), and I believe we should not follow through with it. But if by some chance the majority does agree with this plan, we should only implement it for Day/Night 1. As the game progresses, I think it would be harder to role claim with that plan, mostly because, it would be very easy for any blue/red/assassin to frame others. These questions are mostly directed at BM, but anyone could answer them if they want: How would medics/DTs/Mad Hatters do their job with your plan? Would DTs role check their targeted person? Would medics be saving anyone? Would Mad Hatters hold on to their bombs? On April 19 2010 07:29 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote: If you look at other threads you will see this is my first game. The two mafia type players you described before were the quite members that pretty much agreed with townies and offered no opinion themselves, and the experienced mafia members which appeared to be extremely pro-town. Now why would an inexperienced member of the mafia do the exact thing that you just stated as showing mafia members. No reason what so ever. An inexperienced townie however that doesn't want to get lynched for being inactive, but also is to inexperienced to actually add anything to the conversation has nothing to lose from agreeing with the "experienced townie". Hmm... Looking at the time stamp between Caller's post and your post, I'm assuming you've had time to read his post before making a reply. Looking at what you said, combined with Caller's post, an inexperienced mafia would be posting to get out of inactivity so he does not get lynched and would look like an inexperienced townie trying not to get lynched. After Caller's post, an inexperienced mafia would not be willing to act along with what he said. But at the same time, you have posted and given not that much opinion yourself and agreed with other people for the most part (Which is what Caller described a mafia would do). It kinda looks like you're trying to avoid the spotlight of attention, but at the same time, you're messing up so people are noticing you even more. So this is the list of people "inactives" who have posted after Caller's post: - Fishball (Haven't expressed much thoughts, but according to him, he's only been up for about 2 hours) - TheLardyGooser (Pushing for a new plan) - tree.hugger (Talks about Abenson) - Roffles (Just woke up from OSL tiebreakers) Actually from what I can see, I think there's a higher chance that the mafia will be hiding in the inactives at this current time. And to Jugan: What's all this hate towards me? :O You claim that I was bashing on you, but I wasn't; I was just responding/expressing my thoughts in response your post. I have some suspicion against nAi at this point, but it's not concrete enough for me to vote him. I'll vote once a bit more comes it. Or if nothing suspicious happens, I guess we could just pick a random inactive and lynch him? :/ | ||
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Jugan Most noticeable is the posting difference in Jugan. He somehow goes from spamming one-liners to actually phrasing his thoughts into readable sentences: He goes from this: On April 18 2010 11:08 Jugan wrote: i say we lynch the KF91 guy. he's annoying. to this: + Show Spoiler + On April 19 2010 13:51 Jugan wrote: I'm sure he understands that he made a mistake now, so let's leave it at that and open the discussion to something that will help steer us in the correct direction. As I stated earlier in the thread (not picking on you, just using this as an example), a person being less active than other people in the game at this stage is normal. It's only the first night, taking a tally of those who appear to be either lurking or inactive will help none. The mods will deal with those who are inactive (i.e. reminders/modkills). For those of you who don't know, people have things in real life to do: Go to school Socialize Take care of animals Set houses on fire Which means that they will be unable to devote as much time to the game as others will. Additionally, newer players will, understandably, want to get a feel for the game before putting themselves out there. While it is entirely possible that a person's seeming "inactivity" can be an indicator of a mafia member, please take great care in jumping to conclusions and making assumptions. I hope this serves as a reality call and a reminder for some players, IntoTheWow. But not much has changed; he really isn't giving much ideas towards the town, but mainly arguing with people in the game. I'm not sure if I'm 100% right, but the turning point of his posting behaviour is after Caller pretty much abuses him verbally. What's interesting to note is that Jugan has little to no interaction with Caller after this. (Rarely mentions him) I honestly don't really understand why he continues to hate on me for being "annoying" when I (In my point of view) haven't done anything to a far extent to annoy him. And yet he continues hold his vote on me :/ Plus, please try to calm down and try not to bring emotions into the game too much (Mostly directed at your bashing on IntoTheWow) What Incognito Said About Osmoses As to what Incognito had said about Osmoses, that's a good observation made on him, but I don't think Osmoses is trying to pull off what you said. From what I can see, I think Osmoses is putting in effort and trying to contribute to the town. We should wait until he posts a little bit more so that we can get a concrete reason to lynch him (If he seems scummier by the post). BC's Post About Inactives On April 20 2010 03:59 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Rage has just started posting as of last page, to jump out of no where and point at RoL. This seems to me a very scummy sort of move. RoL is really inactive, very off since hes normally really active. I think Rage is doing something right here and he doesn't seem that scummy to me. The town needed a plan, and here we have one. It's better that the town lynches a random and hope to get a mafia than no lynch at all. Remember, although the chances of getting a mafia with a random lynch is around 20%, the chances of getting a mafia with no lynch is 0%. But I do have to agree with you about RoL. When I played with him in the Micro-Mafia, he was very active; and now, it honestly feels like he died or something O.o And finally to Rage, BM is always like that; try to take it as the comedic side of mafia games. XD | ||
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KF91
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Jpak on the other hand has not posted anything useful at all. (I think he's only made 4 posts so far post-Day1?) | ||
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On April 19 2010 23:01 Scaramanga wrote: Jesus fucking christ, reading through this is like pulling teeth, I'm voting to lynch Jugan as his non senseical crap looks exactly like what 0cz3z used to do to confuse the town when he was mafia and i suggest that everyone else dose the same Edit: I would just like to let you all know that watching one piece >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> reading this shit Whoa, I completely missed this edit... Scara, do you mind explaining yourself for this? The sentence you added in was completely unnecessary and it could have been made as a double post if you REALLY wanted to say it. | ||
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Right now, I'm guessing the votes will be either against: jpak or RaGe. I personally think it would be beneficial to the town if we lynch jpak during Day 1 (Even if it means if we have to wait until Day 2 to lynch RaGe if we really want to), mostly due to that fact that jpak has given nothing at all that is beneficial to the town, while RaGe has at least given us a starting point as to who to lynch. If I counted correctly, RaGe and jpak both have six votes against them at this time. | ||
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On April 20 2010 06:11 Bill Murray wrote: I don't understand this at fucking all. When you are green you have big posts, and I had you written off as green, but your shift towards smaller posts is AWAY from your green meta and really had me thinking that you are red. Let's lynch KF91. Well, I don't find you annoying, but when you are green you tend to come out and actually accuse people instead of squirming and getting defensive with very short posts. When you are green you craft elaborate posts, and you are not doing that, so therefore you will flip scum when we lynch you. BM, remember that the micro-mafia game was the "first" mafia game I played in, and it's a completely different setting than this one. Since this game is more active and there are more people than the micro one, I cannot sit down to carefully analyze through each post for each person just for Day 1. There's too much to work with and I personally think that it would be a waste of time. When it reaches Day 3 or so (We would have about 10 less players than right now), I think it would be more manageable for me to start analyzing and accusing people. And the reason I have smaller posts at this moment is I really believe that we are going to end with a no lynch on this day if the activity does not stop. The closest we have to a majority at this moment is six votes on RaGe and jpak. So I'm just trying to get people back into the thread to read and post and maybe eventually we'll get that lynch going. | ||
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In a normal situation, a mafia (More the inexperienced mafia) that is being blamed would feel more nervous and therefore would post short, erratic posts trying to defend themselves. But what Rage has been doing is almost the complete opposite of that. His posts are composed well and I think that he defended himself correctly. As to his "Well if x acted like this in a previous mafia game, and y is now acting similar to x, he is mafia too!" statements, I believe that it has now come up twice in his posts. Once to defend himself (About the nai incident) and not to try to accuse Rage. Although I believe posting behaviours of individual people are important to consider (How BM points out how I must be scum because of my shortened post length, or even how BM isn't completely spamming every other minute in this game), I don't think entire situations where completely different people are involved should be used as precedent case. Also Caller, the whole 3rd/4th to bandwagon theory. I'm not going to argue about the fact that it happens 75% of the time, but currently it looks like that's all the basis you have to be suspicious of people (Most recently, of meeple). Although his commentary on the lynch should be analysed more throughly with previous posts and posts to come, I don't think your points 1 and 2 should really play into a basis of suspicion. Shouldn't posting behaviour be considered more important than the order of votes casted for a lynch? | ||
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What I was referring to with my Day 3 analysis, is that I will be able to provide an analysis of each player (Maybe I'll split it up into two posts, first half of people on the first part of Day 3, then the rest on the second part of Day 3, I really haven't planned it out yet) so it will help the town accuse and maybe even decide who we should lynch. | ||
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On April 21 2010 09:00 Jugan wrote: A good way to mark yourself as not credible is announcing that you've only read the last two pages and then saying you won't be doing anything until the 3rd day. I did not say that I have only read the two pages; I just stated that the past two pages have been full of posts that are almost useless. At the same time, I did not say that I won't be doing anything until Day 3. If you have read my posts, you could see that I have tried to contribute to the ideas of the town by giving my own input with regards to what has been happening. All I stated in my post is that I will be able to give a thorough analysis of every player in the game when it reaches Day 3, because at this moment, there are way too many players, and not enough time on my side to invest into a "project" like that. | ||
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Oh, I think you just misunderstood because of my sentence structuring style -.- Sorry bout that. "Read" in that context was in an imperative sense, as in I was telling Osmoses to read the past two pages, and not "Read" as in "I just read the past two pages" | ||
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iNfuNdiBuLuM Important post summaries: - Urges people to vote to prevent a no lynch On April 18 2010 04:43 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: I want to remind you guys that this game is running the "majority lynch" rule. This means that if no majority is reached, there won't be a lynch. No lynch is bad for the town. It's like giving a time walk to the mafia (mtg reference nerd lol). This also means abstaining is bad! So please pay attention during votes as they operate a bit differently in this game than most TL mafias. - Talks about the timing of the double lynch On April 18 2010 06:34 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: @ KF91 and radfield I have never liked double lynching early. Most of the time there just isn't a good amount of information at this time and at least 1 townie gets lynched. One thing fw needs to clean up is whether we can have a double lynch but then only lynch 1 player. I myself doubt it.However, if we can back out, then double lynching is a little less risky since we won't be forced to do a lynch on bad info. - Supplies the inactive list On April 19 2010 02:11 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: These people have not posted yet since the game started or have made about one post with only a few lines in it of little substance: Roffles nbtnbt5 krndandaman Fishball Elemenope tree.hugger rebirth of legend (but he posted a lot pregame too) RaGe Jadefist TheLardyGooser Caller (wtf mate) love1another jpak Now this is a rather large list (let me know if i missed anybody). One reason could be that the game started on the weekend, so don't think this is some end all be all declaration of scum/inactivity. However, two things: 1. if we want to lynch an inactive Day 1 this is where we start 2. if you are new and not posting but are here, you should probably start! we don't bite. - Defends Caller saying that he wouldn't pull of the same mafia act twice in a row On April 19 2010 02:19 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: The problem is that we have guarantee that everyone will comply, especially the Assns. As i posted before, the plan basically runs contrary to the victory condition of an assassin, so it makes no sense for them to comply. If i was an assassin i'd spend the first couple nights rolechecking people anyway, since you have so few kills. On April 19 2010 02:20 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: edit: NO guarantee. On April 19 2010 05:58 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: I dont know. do you really think he'd expect to get away with the same thing for 2 games in a row? - Medic and DT list On April 20 2010 13:20 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: Guys remember to check out the ZBOT thread, it will be a very useful tool in the near future. I wonder where Zona is though? Busy programming/making love to the robot? I'm sure he'll turn up. Anyway some suggestions from little old me - DT list: Anyone suspicious and/or semi active. From my POV this includes motbob, tree.hugger, BM, TheLardyGooser. Maybe rage because of Day 1? Use your best judgment. Medic List: The obvious - Ace (even though he's not helping ... yet, he actually might be a DT), Zona, BC, Incognito, myself (lol  )What makes me really suspicious about infun is the fact that he is looking very pro-town by stating is facts clearly and not getting accused that much, but at the same time, he hasn't been giving any ideas as to what the town should do. He's been giving little nudges here and there to guide the town, but he hasn't really put out a plan we should look at. He doesn't make any type of accusations about anybody and I believe that he doesn't even have suspicions against others. He really hasn't contributed much after the Ace/Caller/nAi incident, and his last few posts have been mostly one-liners (But I guess I can't really blame him, because the thread post-Night 1 has been getting... spammy.), but it is quite noticeable how his long-drawn posts have recently turned into short one-liners. Random trivia: - Infun made the most interaction with Caller in his posts. - He has made 27 posts since the beginning of the game (Using the archive, so I may be wrong) - Voted for jpak during Day 1 Final Conclusions: I personally believe that Infun could be a mafia. His non-aggressive posting style and his recent inactivity (Or lack of posts with content) makes me want to believe that he is mafia pretending to be a "helpful" townie member. He might have had something come up in real life, so we'll have to hear what he has to say. Of course, these are just my thoughts, so feel free to criticize me about what I think about him, and Infun can bash on me if he wants to as well. :D | ||
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On April 21 2010 23:52 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: So we lynch Caller, what happens next? Say double lynch is in effect. 1. Caller is red. Lynch who and who? 2. Caller is green/blue. Lynch Ace and who? 3. Caller is an assassin. Do we lynch Ace in case he's also an assassin and we don't want him to "win"? But then we still need a 2nd target. What are some possible people to lynch during the double? - I personally don't think BC is red. I hope we don't have to lynch him just to clear up RoL's claim - motbob isn't helping and freely admits it. - Caller's list: ITW, Meeple, Motbob, BC no matter what color caller flips, these are important people to look at. I guess if worse comes to worse we can just use 1 of the 2 lynches on an inactive if there aren't any convincing targets. But personally i'd rather hope we see the inactive(s) modkilled. Looks like we forgot the chance that Caller could be miller. XD Well this does look good for Ace and his "I'm a detective" thing. Although I'm still kind of not sure on who we should vote for if we go for that double lynch on Day (Although RoL and BC seems to be big targets at this moment.) On April 22 2010 04:27 Korynne wrote: Ouch, this makes things more complicated. So Ace was WRONG in that he incorrectly deduced that Caller was mafia. But I guess there isn't much to do about the fact that he "role-checked" Caller and Caller turned up mafia... So either Ace just failed at deducing if Caller was mafia, and he's innocent. Or Ace is mafia, in that case, it would be extremely risky to claim Caller as mafia. As mafia, Ace would know that Caller was not mafia, so claiming he's mafia is pretty much death if he turned out townie. There would be a very low probability of him turning up Miller. So for now, I think Ace is telling the truth, but a bit sketchy with analysis (possibly just because Caller's acting funny, which seems counterproductive from his role as a townie?). I don't think that Ace failed at deducing if Caller was mafia. I think the combined products of the role-check and Caller's suspicious way of posting and playing style made it concrete for Ace to say that Caller was definitely mafia. I think the double lynch will definitely depend on what happens with the mafia kills. Personally, I don' t think that Ace could die tonight, due to that fact that he hasn't gotten any mafia members killed. The only reason (that I can see) for Ace to get killed is if RoL or BC is mafia. Even then, if the majority of the town agrees with this lynch, killing Ace won't do anything at all to save their member. Right now, the suspicions of Ace being mafia for me are very low. It would have been a very ballsy move by Ace to do something like what he did (If he was mafia) and the chances that Caller would flip Miller are very low. So I really believe that Ace is a legit DT at this point. Now what would be even more surprising is if RoL and BC are both killed during the night. Although I don't think mafia is stupid enough to kill off the two people we are accusing if they are both townies. This goes along with what Korynne said, the mafia would rather have the townies kill each other rather than have the spotlight shine on them. Well I'm going to go with the double lynch at this moment, because we could possibly end up choosing not to use it if the situation calls for it. We still have 2 more left if we don't use it, and I think the majority, or rather, some members of the town will be smart enough if we don't need to use it on Day 3. I have to go to work, so I'll be back in around 6 hours. When I get back, I'm going to read over what RoL and BC have been saying and I'll hopefully put up a post before I go to sleep. | ||
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On April 24 2010 03:52 BrownBear wrote: The problem I have with saying that out loud is now the mafia might very well choose not to hit either RoL or Ace, but go for 4 other random people, which means we get shafted. It's better to trust the medics to be intelligent with who to protect, and to keep quiet about who they're protecting. Well the thing is, if we tell the medics who they should protect, we could end up confusing both the mafia and the medics. Like you said, the mafia could end up hitting 4 randoms that are not on the list, but if a "smart" medic thought about that, they would end up trying to protect a random. In any case, I still think that protecting the more active, intelligent players would be better than trying to protect other randoms. So I think that it all comes down the play of the other roles with KP. Even if they are not smart enough to decipher and analyse posts, I hope they can still listen to the general tips of the town and use their kills tonight to catch some mafia. | ||
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1. BrownBear 4. d3_crescentia 8. 10. Scaramanga 11. Bill Murray 12. Fishball 13. RaGe 15. Scamp 17. Ace 20. meeple It may seem redundant to see another analysis of players that have been analyzed already, but it's also to help me catch up on what exactly has been happening (If you noticed, which I'm pretty sure most people did; I haven't been posting in a while) to make sure I am voting on the right person (Although it seems that Ace is running this show at this moment XD) | ||
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I went through this post looking for grammatical and code errors. If there are still some left, I apologize -.- BrownBear + Show Spoiler + General Points: - Switched in for Zona - Does not understand why the Caller bandwagon was started. (Believes that there was not enough evidence provided by Ace for there to be a bandwagon) Now this was before we confirmed that Ace was a DT. At that points there were many doubts that Ace could be a DT because of his mass spamming. + Show Spoiler + On April 22 2010 03:43 BrownBear wrote: Ok. Wow. Reading this was intense, and this is far far deeper and more elaborate than any Mafia game I've ever played before (although, like Korynne, I've never played on a forum before, so maybe that has something to do with it.) That said, here goes, with a little mini-analysis of what seems to be the biggest story of the last 20 pages or so: Ace vs Caller. I find the Caller bandwagon to be slightly weird. It seems that people have jumped on the caller bandwagon largely due to this post by Ace: + Show Spoiler + On April 21 2010 12:37 Ace wrote: STOP THE GAME! Rolecheck on Caller came back : Caller is Mafia Lets get this shit. ...although Caller really hasn't helped his cause much by being BM about it. However, the only real proof we have that Ace is his word, plus an (easily fakeable) pm from flamewheel. Of course, he still could easily be a detective, as he said, but then that begs the question: why did the Mafia not kill him on night 1, and go for Radfield instead? I have not seen any evidence that the Mafia knew somehow that Radfield was a detective - except, of course, for another post by Ace: + Show Spoiler + On April 20 2010 06:42 Ace wrote: wait my bad. This guy is. Don't let him die - only hope for the town to win. ...which doesnt exactly implicate Radfield as a detective, but... it's just very very strange to me. It's not really enough for me to stick my neck out for Caller, as he's pretty obviously today's pincushion, and honestly, people have been lynched in Mafia games for less that this. However, it does make me suspicious, so here's my recommendation: Lynch Caller today, and see what his role was. If he does turn out to be scum, then I hereby retract all the nasty horrible things I said about Ace in this post, with my most humble apologies. However, if he's innocent... I for one will be targeting the guy who seems most responsible for his death. Now to prepare to have my argument cut to shreds - Provides analysis on BC and RoL + Show Spoiler + On April 23 2010 03:31 BrownBear wrote: Eh, so it goes. I'm not really going to try to pretend I knew what was going on in his head. So, having looked at the required reading, here goes in terms of analysis: BloodyC0bbler: Started the game offering a lot of advice to new players, and specifically telling medics NOT to protect him, Ace, or Caller. With Caller out, that leaves him and Ace that the medics are NOT supposed to protect. That, to me, is kinda suspect. If you analyze it on the surface, it's a totally selfless move that makes him look townie, but honestly, why even bother making that move? He could have just as easily said nothing about whether the medic protects him or not, and it wouldn't have been suspicious at all. Plus, now, with it having been pretty much established that Ace is DT, having medics not protect him is just silly. On the other side, to be fair, BC probaby had no clue Ace was a DT when he made that post, so it's not entirely damning evidence, it's just minorly suspect. Gives some more early game advice, drops into some oneliners, then starts a bandwagon on RoL, then jumps off immediately once it gets rolling. What? He claims its under the pretense that he's starting wagons on inactive players. As this is my first time playing, I don't know if this is actually a legitimate strategy, but, hey, y'know, whatever. He then follows up with some decent analysis of random people's posts, which all seem to end in confirming them red. Kind of odd that he yells at meeple for doing nothing but confirming people red, while at the same time pointing the FoS at many people himself - the only difference is he mixes it up by also adding advice to newbies/random oneline comments. So... I feel something's off here. I am pretty sure he's not Townie, based off the fact that he seems to have a clear agenda here, and he's picking people who I don't think are mafia, and accusing them to be red. But at the same time, he's also (so far) working by himself, and doesn't seem to be anti-town so much as he is anti-specific people. Thus, I'm going to call Assassin. RebirthOfLegenD Not nearly as active as BC, but that could mean anything, he claims he's been very busy. Most of his posts are 1-3 liners, with the exception of some longer defense posts. What I don't like is that ok, he has accused BC of mafia, but he presents NO evidence besides "rolecheck confirmed LOL". I fail to see anywhere where he claims to be a DT, or have any rolechecks whatsoever, so if someone could point me to that that would be greatly appreciated. Beyond that, he doesn't seem to be taking the game very seriously, his posts have little to no analysis, and he appears to have given up on the town. All this points to SCUM Bill Murray I will analyze Bill Murray in a little bit, as I have class now and there's a lot of reading to go through. - His last couple of posts talk about how medics and vigis have to do their job to ensure that the town wins this game. Thoughts: Well I don't think there is much to talk about BrownBear. He's been switched into the game fairly late and most of his posts have been pro-town. He's been pushing RoL that he was scum for a little bit (Although he was wrong in the end, RoL was not town, so I guess he could be considered correct? O.o) He hasn't been that accusatory in his past few posts, but I guess that could be understood because Ace has been telling what people do for the past two game days. I've been looking for the correlation between Zona's posts and BrownBear's posts to see if there are any similarities (Although they are different people, if his role was mafia, they could end up defending the same person/same group of people), but there has been none. Final Conclusions: From what I can see, I am confident in saying that BrownBear is probably a Townie. d3_crescentia + Show Spoiler + General Points: - Talked quite a lot of assassins. - Voting analysis + Show Spoiler + On April 20 2010 03:59 d3_crescentia wrote: Posting from work, which is not blocking TL today. I am getting increasingly concerned that there are 10+ inactives lurking out there and that we have 25 votes though they're entirely scattered across the board. Who are our main candidates for lynch, and who's voting for them? 1. Caller - Ace, nai.Protoss, Jadefist I don't really see what Ace saw in Caller's posts, and with him not around at this point in time to explain his accusations I don't really think this lynch is really going to go anywhere. I've already expressed my concerns about Jadefist's vote here, but there really isn't much to do with that. As for nai.Protoss it just seems he's vote-retaliating, but that's hardly of use to anyone right now. 2. Bill Murray - motbob, AcrossFiveJulys, meeple Alright, now for some real meat-and-potatoes. BM was the author of that fine work, the Assassin plan, and thanks to the heroic actions of our fellow townies we've beaten that horse to death. Seems that all of the votes have been due to that one plan, and no one's really bothered to change since. Then there's Radfield's concerns, which are common to games with Bill as a participant, but does that change the fact that they've been equally valid across all aforementioned games? Supposedly, he's improved in the last few games, but where's the proof in this game? 3. Jugan - love1another, myself, Scaramanga, jpak I'm actually very, very concerned about this group of voters. I stated my original reasons (bad posting/semi-inactivity) for voting Jugan, and now that he's actually making an effort to participate I'm turning my attention to other inactives to try and get them to post. But the fact that love1another and jpak haven't been posting in the thread about their vote reasoning is disconcerting. Scaramanga's reasoning feels similar to mine, but I do wish he'd post more so we can keep an eye on him as well. 4. RoL - Fishball, Rage, IntoTheWow, Falcynn, DarthThienAn, TheLardyGooser As funny as getting a gang-rape train on RoL would be after his little post in the vote thread, I feel bad for the guy, since it'd be the the second game in a row that this shit's happened to him. I suppose that's what he gets for not posting, but I'll have reservations about following through with the lynch if he actually decides to speak up. Here's what I propose: we forget about Caller/Jugan for now, and the town consolidates its votes on either RoL or BM, so we don't face a no-lynch scenario at the end of the day. I'll be voting for BM currently, because I've yet to see a difference in his play so far. - Provides analysis on people who were killed during Night 1 + Show Spoiler + On April 21 2010 12:19 d3_crescentia wrote: Alright, so we're lynching meeple because he's an indecisive flip-flopper speaking in ambiguous language? Considering Jugan was just modkilled and flipped green, I don't think we should take his 'team player' comment to seriously. I like Incognito's idea about forced post analysis, though I'm still digesting the results of Night 1. Seriously, 3 blues dead and no one bats an eye? Granted we (or rather, Foolishness) got TheLardyGooser, but I'm still feeling things are a bit more stressed than I'd like going into Day 2. Summary of arguments from dead people, taken from the archives. I'm fairly sure that the archive needs to be updated, so it could be updated with any other posts in the thread, but I'd rather sleep first. CynanMachae - suspects TheLardyGooser - pro-inactive lynching - agrees with Incognito on Osmoses - dislikes RoL bandwagon Radfield - contributes to double-lynch discussion (use double lynch early?) - advocates inactive Day 1 lynch - anti-BM plan, suspicious of him - takes notes of particular bandwagoners (darththienan, meeple, infundibulum, scamp, jadefist) - speaks in defense of RaGe - FoS on AcrossFiveJulys Foolishness - is fairly critical of meeple re: lynches (though this was a misunderstanding?) - FoS on TheLardyGooser (and eventually killed him) - misunderstanding between him/Incognito about spam posting - FoS on RaGe for previous discussion [nyc]hobbes - against double-lynch on Day 3 - argument with Jugan - for lynching inactives on Day 1 Any common threads here? Both Foolishness and CynanMachae spoke out against TheLardyGooser; Foolishness and Radfield both took note of meeple - albeit for different reasons, and one of those reasons potentially being faulty. More importantly though, I think Radfield had the right idea with looking at the vote list for bandwagoners. We're discussing meeple right now, whom I feel we have a good case for; I'd also like to look at Darth, Scamp and Inf, all of whom I'll leave for the morning unless some kind soul decides to do it for me. As for JadeFist... well, no matter what color he flips his action was just really, really DUMB and he should be probably be killed for it. - Provides an okay analysis of me. + Show Spoiler + On April 21 2010 21:27 d3_crescentia wrote: Good morning; sorry if this seems a bit rushed, but I've got less than 10 minutes before I need to leave and I probably won't be posting until the evening again. Most of my post will be some quick thoughts on KF91/Scamp/Inf/Darth, as I said I was going to do last night. As for the current situation before us, given Ace's Detective claim last night and his recent claim that Caller checked red this one is actually a fairly simple decision, unless Ace is bullshitting us all. Analysis of KF91: + Show Spoiler + Summary of arguments: - Agrees with early double-lynch; actually gives some solid reasoning as why to do so - Against BM's plan - Picks out Jugan and Osmoses for later analysis - Thinks Caller is mafia due to his erratic behavior - Analysis made on infundibulum as possible mafia Comments: Everything he's said so far seems to be logical. Follows Incognito's lead in agreeing with Osmoses and doing next-person analysis (but then again, so am I). I agree with his analysis on Inf, and so we should keep an eye on him. Fairly pro-town player IMO. Brief thoughts on Scamp, Inf, Darth: + Show Spoiler + - Scamp - posted quite a bit in the early game, dropped off the face of the planet later. Picked out TheLardyGooser early but hasn't said much since. Keep an eye out for him. - Inf - See comments above. Also, Inf has posted since then, and I think he's in the clear for now. - Darth - Bandwagoning early on, but makes some okay posts. I'd say he's actually green and just making common newb mistakes, except my perception of him is colored since I happen to know him. Don't think there's much to worry from him though. Of these three, I'd say we should be most careful of Inf, then Scamp, then Darth. There's nothing much to suggest that any of them are scum. Thoughts: From what I can see, crescentia is a player analyzer in this game, he posted a lot of people's behaviour throughout this game. He posts about voting behaviours, mafia killing behaviours and how dead people posted before they were killed. He doesn't really accuse anyone of being mafia, but rather just casting suspicion on them. His posts seem mostly pro-town, but he hasn't (In my opinion), given much ideas toward the town (Due to the due fact that he hasn't given a serious FoS towards anyone). It seems that he could be a quiet-ish mafia providing some information from time to time to mask his identity, but I don't think I can nail that on him, just because of the type of information is giving to us. Although he hasn't provided analysis for us in his last few posts... He claims that he will be doing some "rigorous analysis" during this weekend. Final Conlusions: I would really like to label him as mafia. I just have a feeling that he could be trying to pretending to be a helpful townie. But, along with the all the analysis he is providing and the fairly pro-town vibe I'm getting from his posts, I would say that he is a Townie. Scaramanga + Show Spoiler + General Points: - Really spammy. (I'm not even going to bother putting quote evidence here.) - Says that he doesn't contribute much because he doesn't know what to do. He also claims that he's just bad player, so he doesn't want the train of thought of the players derailed because of his posts. + Show Spoiler + On April 21 2010 20:28 Scaramanga wrote: There you go, thats all i was asking for, not just analysis but some suggestions aswell. See i have no idea who to vote to lynch, i might vote for Ace if caller turns out green but im not sure whats best for us in this situation hence why im calling for suggestions not just "oh check this out he might be scummy" like whats been happening. Yeah i havent really contributed that much because i dont really know what to do . I can't do awesome analysis of clues (not relevent to this game but going off prior games) or behaviour and pin reds like many others can do. The way i see my self contributing to the thread is giving my two cents where nessessary which mostly is about keeping the town clear and heading in the right direction. I felt that the posts from jugan were majorly cluttering the thread and detracting efforts from finding actual reds, note i clarified and explained that its not the posting overall that i said "sucks" it was jugans and jugans posts only that "suck". And im trying to contribute now, as you can see in the pages leading up to this people are doing good analysis but none of those who are doing analysis are calling for lynches and very limited ammount of town are giving their thoughts on this, thats why im calling for most of the town to come out so we can head in the right direction that most of us agree with, i want to make sure that one of our most important assets, the double lynch is used properly.The reason that im not analysing or giving my thoughs on analysis is because im very very very bad, ask BC, ver, qatol hell 99% of people that have played mafia with me would say im one of the worst. I feel that any of my "analysis" if you want to call it that would just detract attention from good people like BC, Ace, caller, incog, ROL etc, hence me not posting analysis or my thoughts on it, ive been doing this after my first game of mafia.And in regards to my votes I thought it was pretty obvious when i voted that i wasnt done reading the thread, i voted for caller because where i was up to in the thead he hadn't posted once. After a few pages i wanted to change my vote, changed it to abstain but i didnt read the rules, so i changed it to a good friend of mine BC (for the lols  ) as a filler till i was done reading the thread and could make a proper decision to who should be lynched, and i felt like that should have been juganI voted caller because reading through the thread when someone claiming to be a DT calls out someone as being scum, you're going to catch at least one mafia. If Ace is a DT then we get caller as mafia, if not we know that Ace is mafia getting rid of caller. Thats why i said in the votes thread, what motbob said which refered to "Caller and then Ace if Caller flips green" So theres my train of thought in asking everyone for their reasoning, thoughts, analysis. Mine isnt going to do the town any good and at the moment with the main players clashing heads without sugesting something town can't move forward as well as we can - Last three posts also have been spammy. Thoughts: Not an active player; and not a good player at that. These two elements make him a player who we don't really care about. This could mean that he would get the FoS the least during the later days since the town is mostly focusing on players who posted a lot so we could try to find discrepancies within their posts. He has not given one bit of helpful advice for the town, and it seems like he doesn't want to start trying. Final Conclusions: Just because he's bad at the game does not mean he should not try to get better. He seems to just stay on the down low and post at random times with no accusations or thoughts. I'm thinking he could be a quiet Mafia, therefore we should think of lynching him. Bill Murray + Show Spoiler + General Points: - Posts consist mostly on one-liners. - Tries to start a bunch of bandwagons, but does not work + Show Spoiler + On April 20 2010 06:11 Bill Murray wrote: I don't understand this at fucking all. When you are green you have big posts, and I had you written off as green, but your shift towards smaller posts is AWAY from your green meta and really had me thinking that you are red. Let's lynch KF91. Well, I don't find you annoying, but when you are green you tend to come out and actually accuse people instead of squirming and getting defensive with very short posts. When you are green you craft elaborate posts, and you are not doing that, so therefore you will flip scum when we lynch you. + Show Spoiler + On April 21 2010 11:16 Bill Murray wrote: This just means we have to work harder to win, but i'm worried that there's no town circle forming. veterans like ace and bc need to get off their asses and actually do something instead of appearing bored and letting the town go to shit. since you guys aren't stepping it up, i'll have to. since i know i'm green, we can create a town circle around me. I'm not asking you to roleclaim to me, but if you are a member of this town, and want to contribute and win then u need to listen to me. We need to get rid of people who aren't stepping up to the plate. these players are supposed to be good and helpful players but instead they are not helping or are just posting garbage: Tree.Hugger, Ace, BC, Infundibulum, There are also people who have scummy suspicious posts or are strangely quiet like meeple, Zona, abenson, or KF91 This post feels pretty squirmy to me Also, Meeple, when you said "" How on earth do you KNOW that? Let's lynch Meeple. Thoughts: As usual, BM is still random and does not like to throw out plans that much. He hasn't been that active for the past two days, and hasn't given much substance in his posts. I've only played one other mafia game with him before, but it seems like that he is less accusatory than before. I'm not sure if he's just laying low, or if he is actually busy in real life, but it is something to take note of. He didn't make much arguments, so it's not clear to me if he's taking anyone's side. Final Conclusions: It looks like he's just acting normal (Been a little inactive for the past two days, but I guess we can excuse that?). No one he blamed has been confirmed scum yet, so we don't know if his predictions are correct. I'm pretty sure that he is a Townie once again. Fishball + Show Spoiler + General Points: - Most posts are spammy and one-liners - Nothing of real substance. - Asks for an analysis of himself. + Show Spoiler + On April 23 2010 03:42 Fishball wrote: I'm bored. Someone analyze me. - A little squirmy. + Show Spoiler + On April 24 2010 18:16 Fishball wrote: No analysis. I'm just mainly tagging along for the joy ride. There is no "fake" activity. Zbot is awesome, because it is? Can it not just be a simple compliment? Motbob is the only person I'm pointing fingers at if you wanted something from me. Thoughts: Umm... Another useless player. He has not given anything to the town to work with, and there is little to no substance within in posts (Mostly none). When Incognito does an analysis of him, he does get a little squirmy and responds quickly rather than full explanations of his actions. Final Conclusions: Another player who doesn't like to think while they are playing. Actually, now that I think about it, I think we could see a high chance of Fishball being mafia. He's really spammy throughout the game and then when someone accuses him, he gets a bit squirmy. RaGe + Show Spoiler + General Points: - Initiator of the inactive lynch on Day 1. + Show Spoiler + On April 20 2010 02:59 RaGe wrote: We really need a change of attitude here imo. I propose a town-wide ban (with lynching if not lived by) on accusations/analysis of previous posts until Day 2, and a lynch of the currently least active, most voted person RebirthOfLegend Because let's face it, we're not going to be able to have enough of us agree on an already suspicious person to be able to lynch him on day 1, and we're only helping mafia decide which townies to snipe atm. This would help us focus on getting a decent plan together for the rest of the game. - Does a great analysis on what Infun said before he was lynched (Not gunna bother posting that here; it's too long and it wasn't too long before this post.) Thoughts: His posts seem very pro-town to me. He's providing excellent information for the town he was the only person that was able to get the ball rolling on Day 1. He was also the one promoting activity towards everyone in the town (Saying that we should red BC's, RoL's and BM's posts). Although he has not been too active, I think that his posts are very beneficial towards the town. Final Conclusions: From what I can see from RaGe, I'm leaning more towards the Townie side with him. He is able to post with clear thoughts and he is one of the few people who were able to stir the town into action. Scamp + Show Spoiler + General Points: - Not that much activity - Follows along with Incognito's analysis plan. (Analyzes Abenson) + Show Spoiler + On April 21 2010 20:58 Scamp wrote: Alrighty, I've been asked to take a look at Abenson since he's directly below me on the list. This is a horrible person to try and analyze because not only has a lot of people already done it for me, but he hasn't posted anything since those people spoke on him. It is interesting to note that he did propose to keep Caller around noting: "If he's not mafia he'll benefit us." He also thinks BM's assassin plan is dumb but in his final post he's willing to discuss it. So, there really isn't much to go on with him this game IMO. He's either confused town or confused scum. Honestly, I'd actually consider him being an assassin based on what he's said so far. Not liking the last five pages or so at all. Just a lot of people bickering at each other and the same names popping up over and over. It's all a major distraction, and I have no idea what it's supposed to be distracting from. Shame on every townie that's willingly a part of it, what the hell do you think you're doing? I also wonder why Bill Murray seems to have dropped his plan so suddenly and willingly. I have to confess that it didn't make sense to me, so maybe I missed something, but I don't think that anything that has happened so far should have derailed the plan as he proposed it. And now for the centerpiece: Ace and Caller. I actually really like Caller's defense but as he noted there really isn't any defending him now. If Ace is mafia trying to BS us then I'll happily take one mislynch now for a dead mafia the next day, whether by lynch or by vig shot. And if Ace is a townie or assassin or whatever trying to BS us, then I'll seriously have to think about playing with him ever again. -Asks (twice) why BM dropped his plan from Day 1. + Show Spoiler + On April 21 2010 20:58 Scamp wrote: I also wonder why Bill Murray seems to have dropped his plan so suddenly and willingly. I have to confess that it didn't make sense to me, so maybe I missed something, but I don't think that anything that has happened so far should have derailed the plan as he proposed it. + Show Spoiler + On April 22 2010 05:52 Scamp wrote: Also Bill Murray, why have you abandoned your plan from day 1 that I never quite understood? Thoughts: Doesn't offer much to the town. No plans or analysis for us to look at. Normally, I would just leave someone like this as a useless townie, but the one thing that caught my attention is that he kept asking why BM did not implement his plan. Personally, I think BM posted his plan just to get the conversation going, but the fact that Scamp keeps asking about this tells us one of two things: 1) He has nothing to talk about so he just keeps bringing up the most random thing from the past, or 2) He is mafia and he was in approval with the chaos that BM's plan could have caused. Oh wait, I just found something else with Scamp: + Show Spoiler + On April 18 2010 01:49 Scamp wrote: Basic plan: Kill the guy who asks too many questions. But really, now we're just going to get a bunch of differing opinions from either helpful townies or mafia who want to look like they're contributing and no good information will be learned. Anyway, from my experience in mafia inactivity is usually a great way to get lynched, because not only are you a detriment to the town but you're also a ruiner of the game in general. Other than that, people actually tend to rely on meta-gamey stuff such as if your name is L, you find a way to kill Ace. Even after saying this, he himself has not followed with his statement and decided to stay under the radar. Final Conclusions: From his posting style and what has been saying in them, I am going to say that he is a Mafia. Ace + Show Spoiler + Pretty much confirmed DT. I don't want to waste time trying to analyse him. If someone REALLY wants me to do it, I guess I could. But for now, I'm just going to say that he's a Detective. meeple + Show Spoiler + Holy shit. This is going to take a while. Too tired to continue this right now. I'll start the latter half of the players starting with meeple later. tl;dr Version: + Show Spoiler + I'm thinking Scaramanga, Fishball and Scamp are Mafia. | ||
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KF91
Canada221 Posts
On April 27 2010 11:59 Korynne wrote: Can we all please do what I said, or at least acknowledge it and explain why you will not? After 24 hours anyone who has not responded will be put on the suspicious list. Alright, let's get this show on the road. madnessman General Points: - Goes for the inactive lynch. - Not that many posts. Thoughts: I read a very important post by madnessman: On April 24 2010 17:00 madnessman wrote: I didn't even think of making a joke until you went along and suggested it. Now..must..resist... In response to your observation, I don't know whether being active on other areas in TL and not posting in mafia thread is indicative of being scum... I would think that if you were mafia, you would be paranoid of people noticing you lurking in the mafia thread when you're obviously around, and would therefore be careful not to post in other areas if you're not posting in the mafia thread. Just my opinion though.. I could be wrong; they could be mafia and just not be as paranoid a player as I was when I was mafia, or then again just town-aligned players feeling lazy and having nothing to contribute... Basically I'm saying that while it shouldn't clear them from suspicion, I don't think such actions should be the CAUSE of suspicion/basis of FoS. It's funny how he says this and then does it himself. At this time, madnessman has made 65 posts this week and he not contributed to the game that much. What is also notable is the fact that he is able to stay under the radar by making posts at least once every game day, but he has not pushed towards any type of plan, nor has he made any type of conversation with anyone in game. He has followed through with a similar playing style in the last game I played with him (Micro-Mafia II) Of course, there were far less people in that game, so he was forced to talk a lot more, but he was able to stay under the radar, while lynching the townies. He hasn't been contributing to the latest "drama" that has been going on, so I don't think there is enough evidence to pin him as a mafia or a townie. But I would definitely keep him on the suspicions list, just because he could be a mafia just lurking around and voting. | ||
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