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What is better to do, list of 2 or 3 people spread out for protection?
[Protect randomly between 2 people]
50% chance both people are protected, 25% chance of each getting protected twice.
Alternatively from mafia perspective:
1 hit has 25% chance of killing someone.
2 hits has a 75% chance of killing someone.
3 hits is guaranteed to kill someone.
[Protect randomly between 3 people]
33% chance that someone get's double protected, 67% chance that two people get randomly protected.
Alternatively, from mafia perspective:
1 hit has a 44% chance of killing someone.
2 hits has a 89% chance of killing someone.
3 hits is guaranteed to kill someone.
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I think we should protect RoL over Incognito, given that he claimed detective. If we don't protect RoL and he is detective, then mafia can kill both our detectives by 1 hit RoL and 3 hits Ace.
If RoL is mafia, then Ace is still relatively protected. Incognito doesn't seem /that/ useful to protect.
My vote for medics is for tossing a coin between Ace and RoL.
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I posted the probabilities for 3 people. xD
I mean it still requires 3 hits to guarantee death, but for 2 people I'd say 89% is close enough to certainty.
Now the Ace with 2/3 and RoL with 1/3:
AA = 44% chance of double protecting Ace.
AR + RA = 44% chance of protecting each once.
RR = 11% chance of double protecting RoL.
So from the other side:
1 hit on Ace: 11% chance of killing him
2 hits on Ace: 44% chance of killing him
3 hits on Ace: guaranteed to kill.
1 hit on RoL: 44% chance of killing him
2 hits on RoL: 89% chance of killing him
3 hits on RoL: guaranteed to kill.
Do these numbers look better than 50/50? xD (1 hit: 25%, 2 hits: 75%)
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So I should be doing the mafia perspective again:
[Goal: Kill Ace 100% and hit RoL]
Best choice: 50/50 would protect RoL more if he is detective
[Goal: Highest expected value for detectives killed]
50/50: Expected value is 1.5 detectives if they put two hits on each
67/33: Expected value is 1.44 detectives if they put 3 hits on Ace and 1 hit on RoL
So we would prefer 67/33 in this case
I don't know enough to know what is better for mafia, so someone else tell me what's better for us to do.
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AcrossFiveJulys, that's assuming two medics left, which according to people seems a pretty safe assumption.
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Haha, nice analysis of JadeFist AcrossFiveJulys. xP
I maintain that medics should only protect RoL/Ace, three people would be spreading it out too thin, especially if we only have 1 medic left. If we have 3 medics left that's a pretty good solid protection on Ace, if the mafia really wants to kill Ace they would have to put 4 hits on him, unlikely to happen given how many townies they could kill instead.
I would go with protect Ace 2/3 and protect RoL 1/3 for all medics.
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If we claim medic protection on important players (Ace, RoL for now) then we are discouraging mafia from hitting them.
The more the mafia is convinced that we will carry out this plan, the less likely they are to hit important players, which is good for town.
Protecting a random is strictly worse than protecting someone important. If medics want to go against protecting Ace/RoL, they should at least be protecting active people who they feel are townies ie. choose randomly between people who are not BC, inactives, or those they feel like are particularly scummy people.
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Well then, so much for assassins helping out the town. xD
I guess congrats to RoL? xD (I knew you looked fishy!!)
14 townies, 7 mafia. >.<
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Man, no vigis... So I guess basically what Ace said.
Ace is like 99% confirmed detective, and that's the best chance we have. So I agree that we should go for BC and Infundibulum.
I'm rather confused as to why Ace did not get roleblocked. Perhaps RoL got roleblocked instead? In that case I suppose giving us BC and diverting attention from Ace is pretty good for assassin to the town. xD
However I would propose we lynch Infundibulum before BC. If BC turns up innocent we can't really do anything, if Infundibulum turns up not mafia/miller than we need to lynch Ace instead of BC (since that would put Ace at a higher chance of being mafia than BC)? I don't know if we need to get every lynch right to win, but if not then lynching Infund is more useful than lynching BC first (we get the result of the lynch immediately before the next lynch).
I also propose double lynch for tomorrow, seeing as how much we need to speed things up since we're pretty on the verge of dying.
Also motbob goes on suspicion list for suggesting role-claim like immediately.
So vote for double lynch, and vote for Infundibulum before BC.
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Guys don't forget to vote for double lynch, we're pretty close here so we're going to need it!!
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I didn't do a detailed analysis, but I was thinking being 7 up is pretty close given kill power tonight will be 3. Though if we get 2 mafia today it won't be so bad.
We have 2 more to use, I don't see the harm in speeding things up...
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I can't seem to find anything online about this, but can someone explain to me the pros and cons of double lynching?
Seems like it's only beneficial for town, since we get to decide who to kill, so it's another chance of getting a mafia, whereas not using it just means another night passes and mafia gets to kill more townies. So other than the fact that using it 1st or 2nd day doesn't make much sense, it seems like we should just constantly vote double lynch until we use them up no?
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Like motbob pointed out, please don't blindly overabuse zBot. Posts are taken out of context and if you don't follow the date-line carefully you make the error of accusing people of being inconsistent without taking into consideration what happens in between the posts.
I'm going to do an in-depth analysis of everyone, mostly data mining, as in level of activity, general accusations, ratio of good to fluff posts, etc. Will add conclusion about each player at the end though.
List of players is a bit long, so I'm going to post my analysis of each person separately in a post if you people don't mind.
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BrownBear
Started April 20th, replacing Zona.
Level of Activity
Other than his first 6 posts, all his posts are very far apart in time.
13 posts total
4 "real" posts total
"real" posts cluster towards the beginning
Summary and Accusations:
Started off doubting Ace in the Ace vs. Caller thing (basically time when he entered the game)
Still doubting Ace after Caller is miller'd.
Feels a bit under fire from people trying to analyze his predecessor
Accuses BC of being assassin
Accuses RoL of being scum
Says he'll do an analysis of BM later
Longer explanation of why RoL is scum
Says that he doesn't want to tell medic who to protect, and says vigis/assassins should perform some hits without providing recommendations
Again with the "gogogo medics vigis and assassins." without recommendations.
Does not like Korynne telling medics what to do, saying mafia could kill 4 randoms instead of Ace and RoL
Complains about 14T/7M and doesn't contribute.
No new posts between end of zBot and right now.
Conclusion:
Btw when I count "real" posts I don't mean specifically 1 post, it's more like okay these 3 all look a bit fluffy I'll combine them into 1.5 "real" post count.
Anyway, I think BrownBear looks a bit suspicious. Posts are getting fluffier as time goes by, and less activity as well.
I expect some real content from BrownBear or he looks rather scummy.
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d3_crescentia
Level of Activity
Posting slightly less these days (not alarmingly less)
21 posts total (not counting pre-game chitchat and his run for mayor...)
Pretty much all posts of some substance
Summary and Accusations:
Points out a couple obvious things (2+ assassins, some comment on BM's plan being stupid, no PMs so BC's plan is silly)
Advocates a double lynch on day 3 (with poor reasoning IMO)
+ Show Spoiler +2) Assumption: Mafia KP is Number/2 rounded up. Then, if we play strictly by Lynches/NK, we would have to lynch a Mafia by Day 4. We are then required to have 100% accuracy with our lynches, and the REQUIRED use of double lynches on subsequent days.
Therefore it should be safe to use one of our double-lynches on Day 3, so long as we don't suffer any accidental townie casualties by Vigis or Assassins. The problem is that it shortens the town lifespan by about a day if we fail to lynch. Generally speaking, Day 3 is the turning point of most games so it seems reasonable to vote for a double then, but I'd rather wait and see how people are posting so far.
Doesn't think Caller is mafia
Complains about Jugan and advocates lynching him (the spaghetti strap analogy xD)
Wants to add love1another to list of inactives/potential lynchees
Points out that LardyGooser wanting a mass role-claim is dumb
Points out the targets in voting (Caller, BM, Jugan, RoL)
Proposal: Forget Jugan/Caller, focus on BM or RoL
Points out that love1another is active elsewhere on TL but not in mafia
Puts his "$50" on RaGe being rolechecked by Ace
Bunch of dead people analysis:
+ Show Spoiler +CynanMachae
- suspects TheLardyGooser
- pro-inactive lynching
- agrees with Incognito on Osmoses
- dislikes RoL bandwagon
Radfield
- contributes to double-lynch discussion (use double lynch early?)
- advocates inactive Day 1 lynch
- anti-BM plan, suspicious of him
- takes notes of particular bandwagoners (darththienan, meeple, infundibulum, scamp, jadefist)
- speaks in defense of RaGe
- FoS on AcrossFiveJulys
Foolishness
- is fairly critical of meeple re: lynches (though this was a misunderstanding?)
- FoS on TheLardyGooser (and eventually killed him)
- misunderstanding between him/Incognito about spam posting
- FoS on RaGe for previous discussion
[nyc]hobbes
- against double-lynch on Day 3
- argument with Jugan
- for lynching inactives on Day 1
Agrees with other people that there is a good case on Meeple
Also points out Darth, Scamp and Inf, who he will analyze later if no one else does so
Points out that JadeFist is being dumb and will probably be killed
Believes KF91 is fairly pro-town.
Eye out on Scamp, Inf in the clear for now, Darth = newb/green
Order of suspicion: Inf>Scamp>Darth, however not much to suggest any of them are scum
Brings slight attention to checking out Meeple again
Conclusion:
Not really sure what to make of him.
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I'm a bit mafia'd out. (BM's mafia started, reading Ace's and Caller's threads)
I will be back later (thinking I'll do these 2 at a time xD).
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Well then, I guess RoL isn't so good at catching mafia afterall. xD
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*sigh* I don't wanna do more analysis. @_@
Scaramanga you're still not really posting... I mean if you're just going to use the excuse well I suck at this game so I'll just sit behind and watch and try to push people forward that's really no help. Dx
Could you perhaps do something like what I did? (pick a couple people, go through zBot and summarize their activities and then give your conclusion? If you suck at analysis at least someone else can go through the summary and pick up on things)
Anyway I'm done for the night.
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Uh Osmoses are you just trying to be confusing with that last line in your post?
Also BC was checked by RoL, not Ace. >.>
Ace caught a mafia today... *disregarding your post and analysis until you learn to read*
[Checked through Osmoses' posts, this one doesn't seem inconsistent other than like 2 pieces of misinformation]
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BrownBear, I think we somewhat established that there are no more vigis (if there are then they're not very cool when they didn't kill BC last night Dx), or they got roleblocked but that would be pretty good read from mafia (though we've already established that mafia could be good at blue snipes).
A mad hatter and vigi already died, and some people say that more than that would be too much KP, from the perspective of the game maker.
Also Mad Hatter only performs his kills when he dies (in which case the two people he placed bombs under die as well) so we wouldn't know about their possible kills either.
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EPT
