EPTMicro-MAFIA (The Second)
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madnessman
United States1581 Posts
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madnessman
United States1581 Posts
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madnessman
United States1581 Posts
On March 30 2010 12:37 flamewheel91 wrote: Therefore, we must pay close attention to posts, and work to catch inconsistencies. If a player you are investigating has played multiple games on the TL mafia forums, go read the games he/she has played in. Check for differences in posting style--"player X posts like this as town, but is very quiet as mafia..." and the likes. I think this strategy is good in theory, but I'm slightly wary over whether it works in practice. We SHOULD be able to spot differences in terms of quality and genuine pro-town content, versus thinly veiled mafia content, in people's posting. But there have been cases where the town misanalysed such behavior (eg. BC in Incog's last game). But then again, the case against BC was built very early on in the game, when basically all BC had posted was his election platform. I guess though as the game goes on differences should be more easy to spot? But for now the best way to catch inconsistencies and get mafia to slip up is for everyone to post post post! (but not spam plz, *cough BM* jk  kthx.) | ||
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madnessman
United States1581 Posts
On March 31 2010 06:24 L wrote: Not yet bro. People think I argue too well and then just blindly follow me, so in an effort to fix that I'm going to let other people talk before chiming in. Also: I'll be writing using very concise phrases because that makes reading easier. Foolishness Cynan and madnessman have yet to really drop by and say hello. I hope they show up to the party before the punch bowl gets spiked and we have people dancing on tables. On March 30 2010 14:17 madnessman wrote: Woah. Game started already! flamewheel, when did you get so wordy? :p I think this strategy is good in theory, but I'm slightly wary over whether it works in practice. We SHOULD be able to spot differences in terms of quality and genuine pro-town content, versus thinly veiled mafia content, in people's posting. But there have been cases where the town misanalysed such behavior (eg. BC in Incog's last game). But then again, the case against BC was built very early on in the game, when basically all BC had posted was his election platform. I guess though as the game goes on differences should be more easy to spot? But for now the best way to catch inconsistencies and get mafia to slip up is for everyone to post post post! (but not spam plz, *cough BM* jk kthx.)Err. Hi, what's up, hello??? And I'd say that people think that you argue too MUCH. Not too well. There's a difference. | ||
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madnessman
United States1581 Posts
On March 31 2010 12:01 KF91 wrote: Uh-oh; I hope I didn't just vote for myself by accidentally quoting you XD lol. why would it? L, i think it's a little unfair for you to dismiss anyone who hasn't proposed a lynch target. so far, there have scarcely been any posts with substance. on what basis am i to decide who to lynch? at this point, it'd be like taking a wild stab at the dark. this is basically what has gone down thus far: kf91: proposes random lynching. takes back proposal, says he'll wait for more people to post. repeats that he'll wait for more people to post. defends L. says we ought to target who talks the least. foolish: argues against kf91's suggestion of random lynching. thinks L's posting warrants his infamous "NOBODY CARES." likes how people are randomly voting. thinks town activity is more important than coordinating blue roles. L: something about english law. chocolate is delicious. says that he's just too good at arguing, so he should hold back, but the rest of us should all declare who we want to lynch. asks the town to get working please. cynan: says that there's not enough info for behavioral analysis till day 2. rol: attempts to start drama to get more info. flamewheel: wordy posts advising BM not to do anything stupid, L not to bring his grudges into the game, and rest of us townies to analyze peoples' previous mafia behavior. vivi: is sad that ace isnt playing. is suspicious of bm for drastically different posting style. bm: is not spamming! appears as though he's trying to turn over a new leaf...or using a different strategy? -.^ i dont know if i want to propose a lynch target so early on in the game. because there's so little to work from, it's very possible that a townie is unintentionally appearing suspicious in his grand total of 1 or 2 posts in this thread. the remedy for this is for everyone to post more; more activity = more opportunity for each of us to prove ourselves to everyone else. if i absolutely had to choose, i'd say im leaning towards flamewheel. he writes a huge wall of text, saying things that could be concisely said in one sentence. it struck me as though he is trying to make a simple piece of advice/comment sound like a grand strategy, bursting with town-favorable motivations. is he trying too hard to sound pro-town, or just naturally loquacious? things to think about i guess. | ||
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madnessman
United States1581 Posts
On March 31 2010 12:42 L wrote: That's kinda the point. Unless you kids grow some balls and point some fingers there's zero incentive for mafia to stir up discussion; why bother when silence automatically favors them? I'm not saying you need to go balls to the wall and kamikaze push someone for our lynch, but if you aren't posting rationales for our day 1 lynch, what exactly else are you doing? There's literally nothing else to talk about. if i absolutely had to choose, i'd say im leaning towards flamewheel. he writes a huge wall of text, saying things that could be concisely said in one sentence. it struck me as though he is trying to make a simple piece of advice/comment sound like a grand strategy, bursting with town-favorable motivations. is he trying too hard to sound pro-town, or just naturally loquacious? things to think about i guess. did that and done. what i've noticed has warranted (for me) a closer look at flamewheel's posting. but at this point, it's pure speculation; how is flamewheel supposed to defend himself to these crumbles of suspicion that have gathered? "lol i just like to typez a lot " also from what i can tell you've said nothing to kf, who is basically advocating a "sit back and wait for ppl to post" approach. if you won't, then i will. kf: your strategy, my friend, is detrimental to the town and has got to change. | ||
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madnessman
United States1581 Posts
i don't have enough of a basis to vote for flamewheel, esp. since IF he is town, the effort he puts into his posts indicate that he will strive to participate and contribute as the game goes on. on the other hand kf has shown no sign of participating and aiding the town other than "i'll wait for ppl to post first"... In such an early stage of the game, i think kf's blatant lack of effort or quality posting is indicative of mafia trying to hide--or otherwise a townie with sheer disregard. sigh, i guess with these time constraints, it's enough of a basis for me to vote for him. ##vote KF91## | ||
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madnessman
United States1581 Posts
On April 01 2010 04:19 Foolishness wrote: L didn't want to make an accusation so as to avoid a bandwagon (acceptable reason I guess). So he let other people talk and do the accusing for him. Yet no bandwagon's have happened really, and there's hardly been any defense of votes. Almost like nobody is taking their votes against them seriously, like, "lol BM voted for me? haha what a joke...". alright. then for the sake of getting the ball rolling, let me remedy that. On March 31 2010 17:38 Bill Murray wrote: madnessman with excuse for not being here@scummy behavior.org trying to blend in on obvious town... I was just waiting for someone to try to jump onto that guy after me, but I didn't expect it to be you, madnessman. shame on you for falling into my trap . unvote; ##vote madnessman## bill murray, i made my post at 4.35am EST, saying that i probably wouldn't be able to get on before voting ended. that's roughly 17 hours before voting ends. is it really so hard to believe that an individual would not have time to post on the mafia forums for 17 hours? i could fully describe to you how hectic my schedule is today, which warrants my being unable to get on, but in all honestly, that's not how mafia should be played--this is not my personal blog. let me assure you that if i were mafia, i would use a MUCH better strategy than my personal life as an excuse. because that's lame and dumb imo. it'd be like saying, "oh! don't vote for me, i am not mafia because i'm trustworthy; i'm even the president of national honor society... i have proof, want my certificate?" etc etc lol. and 17 hours, seriously? that's AT LEAST the amount of time it took before you made your first post. Zona: March 30 2010 11:40 (am) You: March 31 2010 05:46 (time stamps according to japanese time zone) ok. let's say i were mafia. why would i want to go inactive, when it would be SO much easier for me just to see what everyone else is posting, and just casually and nondescriptly tack my vote on to somebody's bandwagon? given how inactive this thread is, i could even BE pretty inactive without publicly declaring so, and chances are nobody would even notice, since everyone seems to be--likewise--inactive. in any case, what kind of bullshit "trap" of yours are you trying to trap me in? it makes completely no sense. let's say i wanted to hop on a random bandwagon, and lynch an innocent townie. why would i hop on your bandwagon AFTER you've changed your vote? On March 31 2010 15:20 Bill Murray wrote: ##vote cynanmachae## I've given up trying to vote on KF91 On March 31 2010 15:35 madnessman wrote: ##vote KF91## i can't be jumping on a bandwagon that doesn't even exist. this exact same thing happened last game, and knowing u bm, u'll probably go, 'oh, feeling scared madnessman?' in response to this post. but honestly, in a game with only 9 people, we need to question everything we know, and take every accusation seriously. and since i don't think i will be able to get on until 11.30pm EST or so, i'd like to defend myself so i don't come back to find myself hanging from the gallows. so take all this as you will. someone needs to start taking all this seriously. | ||
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madnessman
United States1581 Posts
On April 01 2010 07:14 L wrote: Really bad WIFOM, especially given that pretty much all of the votes are spread out. Why? Are townies too afraid to agree, or are they trying to put FoSs everywhere to make someone screw up? Are mafia trying to make their votes blend in as much as possible rather than start a train on someone who will flip innocent? There are two possible explanations to this: either mafia is content with where votes are and don't really feel like throwing their weight around, or they realize people are fucking around and don't care. There are two vote 'strings' in play right now: BM/Vivi voting for Cynan voting for RoL voting for L and madnessman voting for KF91 voting for flamewheel Players who are 2 rungs apart are more likely to be on the same team. Possible pairings: flamewheel/madnessman L/Cynan BM or Vivi/RoL Oddly enough, madnessman made his first post with a very light FoS against flamewheel. I know I'm legit, so pair 2 is false. As for BM/RoL or Vivi/RoL being put on the same team; I'd think that would be highly improbable. Other possible pairings involve players who haven't voted yet, so Foolishness/xxx or flamewheel/xxx Given the link between madnessman and flamewheel, I'm going to start off putting my vote on flamewheel to see wuts up. ##vote flamewheel91## Ok. I don't want to sound like a complete idiot. But what's WIFOM? What's FOS? I made that comment in response to BM accusing me of being mafia on the basis of making up excuses and being fake afk. I just wanted to say that if I were mafia, I wouldn't stoop so low as to use fake irl shit as a cover-up, especially when I could get away with not declaring my absence, since I've posted more than other members in this game, and have advocated ppl to be more active -_-. idk man... i'd say i've been one of the more active posters this game... just seems counterproductive to post a fair amount and then make up a reason to go fake afk. The thing about you L is that I always begin each mafia game with like, maybe if he's also town aligned i'll be able to work with him and hunt mafia!... but then no matter whether you are red or blue, I always ultimately think u have suspicious behavior. Why? You make some elaborate "2 rung" argument about me and flamewheel being mafia (who turned over townie i might add), based on the fact that I voted for kf who voted for flamewheel. Let me point out to you that i voted for kf BEFORE kf voted for flamewheel. so..thanks for the flattery, but i'm honestly not that perceptive, nor can i predict the future. and then you basically dismiss the other 2 pairs by saying: I know I'm legit, so pair 2 is false. As for BM/RoL or Vivi/RoL being put on the same team; I'd think that would be highly improbable. what kind of argument is that? isn't it done RANDOMLY? i can just as easily go, 'well i know im legit, so it must be you/cynan.' and how can you so easily dismiss bm/rol and vivi/rol from being mafia with a grand sweep of your hand...unless u know something i don't? -_^ in response to what flamewheel posting this: Announces that he won’t be back until later tonight after voting is done. However, gets on to defend himself even after Bill Murray has switched his vote. i'm disappointed. he of all should people should know i play it safe whenever there's the slightest chance i'm going to get modkilled. last game i pm'd flamewheel SEVERAL times being like, 'flamewheel, i MIGHT not be able to get on, so here are my votes if i am unable' etc etc. i find it disrespectful to the host and other players. and in a game of 9 players, where my getting modkilled off would immediately transform the mafia to town ratio from 2/7 (28.6%) to 2/5 (40%) (both me and flamewheel dying), which is a DAMN big jump, it would just suck. so forgive me for saying that i MOST likely wouldn't be able to get on, as i would rather vote early and prevent myself from getting modkilled, as opposed to being very frazzled and forcing myself to make time to vote when i don't. i voted for kf91 for what i thought was not GREAT but an educated enough guess given the info we had. it's time the rest of you explain your votes thoroughly, esp. those who voted for flamewheel... | ||
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madnessman
United States1581 Posts
bm: votes for random people saying that he wants to "see how people react." well buddy, your lovely strategy contributed to the lynching of a random townie. congratulations. i could just as easily say, 'oh bm! u fell into my trap! i cast a pretty well-educated vote, and u called me out on it for no basis whatsoever. scum, i got u!' seriously. oh, and hey bm- what do u think abt L and his party excuse? lulz. L: could be scum? makes an elaborate argument based off voting patterns which don't make sense, because evidently he didn't look at the voting TIME STAMPS? lol. also is quick to dismiss certain players of being mafia because it is "improbable." proceeds to voice light suspicions of the people he readily dismissed earlier. nintendo is fun tho. hope u were playing old school style 64. kf91: defends himself to my lynch vote by essentially saying that there's no point because no matter what it's already a lose-lose situation for the town. lol. yeah ok. let's all just throw in the towel here and get modkilled. if everyone thought the way u did, this thread would be a blank slate. don't know if this is indicative of scum or if he just genuinely believes no matter what he does, the town wld lynch a townie either way. huh. vivi: quite inactive fellow. seems pissed at L for starting bandwagons and getting innocents killed. foolishness: votes for rol based on previous mafia experience with rol, and defends flamewheel from being lynched, saying it would be bad to lynch most active poster. could be sign of an analytical, town-aligned player, or could be--as L suggested--a sign of preemptive mafia strategy. at this point, not enough posts from him to tell. rol: been inactive thus far, but promises epicness to come. we shall see. (oh, and thanks for the link/explanation.) cynan: puts pressure on rol. calls L's "string" theory useful but doesn't understand it. | ||
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madnessman
United States1581 Posts
On April 01 2010 14:36 L wrote: WIFOM means wine in front of me. An argument that says: "If i was mafia, I'd never do xyz, and I did xyz, so i'm not mafia!" Generally seen as a scummy, poor argument; the strength of the above claim itself is the counter-argument; mafia love doing things that make them not look like mafia. FOS means FINGER OF SUSPICION. basically means "i'm watchin' u lol, but i'm not 100% sure i'ma vote for you yet :3". Wasn't really that elaborate, nor would you need to vote in response. Its just a simple spiky defense wherein you have 1 mafia member push to discredit a town member that's on to something for reasons unrelated to his suspicions. This forces the targeted player to defend himself and severely hinders his ability to push for the lynch of your partner. This has been done to me several times so its pretty ez pz to spot the beginnings of it. The idea behind presenting it when I did was to dissuade mafia members after my vote from voting according to the once removed vote chain, mostly to see what information we'd get regarding you/flamewheel. I didn't want him to die, as per my 'I'll place it here for now' statement, but that's kinda the breaks. 4 people were active in assigning their final votes after mine. None of the votes after my post were directed at a 'new' target or placed on someone who hadn't been voted before. woops. posted after rol's post, but didnt see this. "This forces the targeted player to defend himself and severely hinders his ability to push for the lynch of your partner. This has been done to me several times so its pretty ez pz to spot the beginnings of it." But prior to my voting for kf91, he didn't voice ANY suspicions of flamewheel. i dont understand your logic; if ur string theory were true, i'd be wasting my vote on someone who has advocated a sit back out of the action strategy; he's even said he hasnt posted much because it's a lose:lose situation for the town either way. he's no L or bm who'd be more prone to go after somebody and push for their lynch. so yes, i dont really see the logic in your string theory. anyways, going to bed. | ||
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madnessman
United States1581 Posts
On April 02 2010 05:47 L wrote: That's an awfully weird post. Also, why would I expect there to NOT be activity given that we have more information and there's more things to talk about? Your statement here: Is very interesting. Did you read this page? MM's going balls deep to paint me red over the course of multiple posts. He puts up a semi-summary of all of the players he's suspicious about. I also said I'm delaying my post because I'd rather not give mafia time to think about who they're going to hit in light of my suspicions. Lol I wouldn't go so far as to "balls deep." But look at the facts: 1. You accuse me and flamewheel of being mafia together on the basis that I was voting for KF who's voting for flamewheel, and that I'm trying to distract KF from suspecting flamewheel, which does not work at all due to the order in which we voted, and the fact that KF has been non-confrontational/hasn't really voiced suspicions of anybody yet. 2. You use the illogical argument above to put pressure on flamewheel, thus (unwittingly?) initiating a bandwagon on flamewheel. 3. When I address your argument and how it doesn't make sense, you say "Just means you have a reason to crank up in the in-thread shit meter if your initial low risk vote turns out to land on someone that's going after your partner. No point pulling off at that point." which doesn't really make sense to me.. not sure what you're arguing actually. but it vaguely resembles backpedaling. 3. Flamewheel turns over townie. You claim something along the lines that you did not intend for flamewheel to actually get lynched, but the party you were at ended up being much longer than you expected. So essentially you made a poor case on flamewheel, which resulted in his getting lynch, and that said you didn't mean for it to happen. I guess it is believable that you meant to post before the lynch time ended and analyze people who jumped on your bandwagon--seems like something you would do. I just find it hard to believe you would pressure on flamewheel over an argument that seems so flawed to me; that's why I said that no matter your position, I always find you suspicious because you seem to act the same way regardless and argue in a manner I find difficult to follow. and i dont know if you're doing it on PURPOSE to cause confusion or u genuinely think that way. @cynan: i didnt mean my summary on you to be insulting or anything, nor am i saying that what you said is "wrong"... just merely stating that u thought L's string theory might have use, but wanted more of an explanation | ||
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madnessman
United States1581 Posts
On March 31 2010 05:46 Bill Murray wrote: ##Vote: KF## On March 31 2010 15:20 Bill Murray wrote: ##vote cynanmachae## I've given up trying to vote on KF91 On March 31 2010 17:38 Bill Murray wrote: unvote; ##vote madnessman## On April 01 2010 06:46 Bill Murray wrote: ##Vote CynanMachae## I bet vivi is surprised I didn't "OMGUS" his vote. On April 01 2010 08:21 Bill Murray wrote: ##vote flamewheel91## Yeah, you PMS, like a bitch, I would know. And you overthink, always speak cryptically (not) On April 01 2010 14:44 Bill Murray wrote: a man has a right to party On April 01 2010 06:40 Bill Murray wrote: your mom is sketch! ohhhh hahahaha I should know that you're no good for meee On April 01 2010 14:40 madnessman wrote: my thoughts on what has gone down so far: bm: votes for random people saying that he wants to "see how people react." well buddy, your lovely strategy contributed to the lynching of a random townie. congratulations. 'Cause you're hot and you're cold. You're yes then you're no On April 01 2010 06:59 Bill Murray wrote: no, i am just voting randomly seeing how people will react to my votes. On April 01 2010 09:54 Bill Murray wrote: I am also not randomly switching votes around. You're in then you're out You're up then you're down On April 01 2010 09:54 Bill Murray wrote: (@Flamewheel) I really believe you might be red. On April 01 2010 15:41 Bill Murray wrote: i figured flamewheel was green about 10 minutes before he died You're wrong when it's right It's black and it's white. On April 01 2010 10:25 Bill Murray wrote: If you die and flip green, noone will give me shit over anything, as 1) you aren't going to be green; you're scum. 2) if by some low chance you are green, we will realize how scummy you were acting in comparison to your previous play. that's why we need to lynch you, flamewheel. On April 01 2010 11:17 Zona wrote: flamewheel91 the townie has been lynched. We fight, we break up On March 31 2010 17:38 Bill Murray wrote: trying to blend in on obvious town... I was just waiting for someone to try to jump onto that guy after me, but I didn't expect it to be you, madnessman. shame on you for falling into my trap On April 01 2010 06:56 madnessman wrote: in any case, what kind of bullshit "trap" of yours are you trying to trap me in? it makes completely no sense. let's say i wanted to hop on a random bandwagon, and lynch an innocent townie. why would i hop on your bandwagon AFTER you've changed your vote? i can't be jumping on a bandwagon that doesn't even exist. We kiss, we make up ...alright, that's not happening. i'm stopping now lol. ##Vote Bill Murray## this is of course not a formal accusation/argument against bill murray. more serious reasoning will be coming later, but right now i can't be bothered given our DT and most active poster just died -_- | ||
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madnessman
United States1581 Posts
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madnessman
United States1581 Posts
 ). So BM, these were the things that stood out to me about your behavior:1. You throw around a bunch of random votes, just so that you can "see how people react." Ok. That's understandable--to an extent. But if you look at the thread, you switch your votes so quickly, before people have the chance to respond to you. You initially claimed that your strategy was to put pressure on people to see how they respond, but then don't even wait to see what their response is, before you're putting pressure on somebody else. 2. After L posts his 2 string theory--which you don't question at all and take as solid truth--you vote for flamewheel. Suddenly, you're no longer randomly throwing votes around. Seems like you were doing the exact thing you call me mafia for and accused me of doing. All of a sudden, because L says so, you think flamewheel is GUARANTEED mafia, claiming he has "buddy-buddy" behavior with Cynan. He asks you to explain. (these posts are in order, one right after the other.) On April 01 2010 08:28 flamewheel91 wrote: Explain, then. On April 01 2010 08:29 flamewheel91 wrote: Oh, and if your ?? is really as incredulous as I make it out to be, I'm just pointing out your hypocrisy over your "buddy-buddy" call-out. On April 01 2010 08:48 Bill Murray wrote: you're making absolutely no sense to me. i'm going to keep my vote on you unless something drastic happens. You ignore all of his attempts to explain himself, calling it "squirmy." From so little information, you push REALLY hard for his lynch. And then, when he turns up green, you say "oh, actually i realized he was green right before he died" when before, despite all his attempted explanations, you ignored it all, saying "keep squirming." So as you can see, i REALLY didn't mean to attack your personal character. You're right, I don't know you at all. These were just the things I noticed, and I thought that I would use that song because I wasn't sure if I wanted to write what L would call a "balls to the wall" accusation of you, and the song captured how you kept claiming different things, always seeming to say what was most convenient at that point in time. The lyrics weren't supposed to be 100% literally towards you--I mean, part of the lyrics are "we fight we break up, we kiss, we make up," which are obviously not true as we are most certainly not in a relationship, thank god. (err. this is also not meant to be offensive towards you or anything. just highlighting the preposterous of our being in a relationship. lol. ok im going to stop now.) So I hope you're not still pissed, and we can continue this game with no hard feelings. Will I be keeping my vote on you? Idk. It's hard to draw conclusions when I could prob count the number of posts some ppl have made on my fingers alone. I don't think you're guaranteed OMG MAFIA, but the way you acted with flamewheel was very suspicious. So atm, it basically boils down to: a) vote for someone whose acted very scummily or b) vote for someone whose been quiet and I have little to no info on. We still have a decent amount of time before lynch votes are due; I just thought I'd throw that vote out there (keeping it somewhat light-hearted, and not a serious U MUST BE MAFIA accusation), to see what would happen and possibly get more info. So yeah, those were my reasons. Sorry if I came off as brash and offensive instead. | ||
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madnessman
United States1581 Posts
On April 03 2010 09:42 Foolishness wrote: We got 2 more lynches to get a mafia before we lose. Right now there are 7 people alive with 2 mafia. If we mislynch, there are 4 townies and 2 mafia. Assuming the mafia's night hit goes through, tomorrow there will be 3 townies and 2 mafia. The game won't be over and if the town lynches a mafia they can win the next day if they lynch the right person again. I think this is the situation in Zona's first mafia game. Obviously this is definitely not a situation we want to be in, but it's not like today's lynch is an all or nothing scenario. And I am definitely one of the most active posters right now, if not the most active. I tell the town to be more active, and only RoL steps up (and you if you start posting more). I'm not counting madnessman and BM as they aren't doing anything useful just bickering at each other (which by the way is very suspicious as they are cluttering up the thread). I said I was suspicious of you because if your non-committal posting during the first day. Even now your analysis is kinda non-committal, though I'm glad someone else is trying to help the town. POST MORE PEOPLE You're calling yourself the most active poster right now? LOL.. posting "hay town, why don't you post more" HARDLY counts as contribution. Even though KF91 and Cynan have less posts than you in terms of quantity, each of their most recent posts has more content than your last 2 posts COMBINED. Why don't you practice what you preach? | ||
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madnessman
United States1581 Posts
On to business... So wtf happened. I come back and suddenly everybody thinks KF91 is mafia. I'm surprised, because I got a completely different read from his analysis. He's really cautious, somewhat noncommittal in his post. The way he posted that analysis reminds me of my first few posts in my first game of TL mafia--wary, afraid to tread on anybody's toes (I was town in that game). This so far is consistent with what we know about KF91 as a relatively new, quiet/cautious player. So hmm.. I don't know if I'm not reading in between the lines enough, but like Cynan I'm finding the sudden jump of votes on KF91 pretty interesting. Is it coincidence that the two people KF is fingering as mafia vote for him as soon as he voices his suspicions? This is also the second lynch that BM is pushing REALLY hard for somebody to be lynched, saying that he has a gut instinct and we should trust him. On April 03 2010 18:03 Bill Murray wrote: madnessman, to me, feels like an argumentative townie... he's too scared to do anything stupid to hurt the town, so he is practically abstaining by sitting with his vote on me. KF91 has been erratic and actively lurking all game, we should definitely lynch this guy and eliminate his scummy behavior. I'm not attempting to practically abstain. For the person who pushed the hardest for flamewheel's lynch, you're mighty confident that no one else is suspicious of you. This is my reasoning: BM is playing scummily, but should I let it slide because he always acts this erratically? NAH. | ||
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madnessman
United States1581 Posts
On April 04 2010 22:36 CynanMachae wrote: So, you'd have believed him if he said "I'm green, don't lynch me"? hahahaha. oh man oh man oh man. | ||
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madnessman
United States1581 Posts
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madnessman
United States1581 Posts
Right now, I'm currently inclined to think Cynan is townie (along with myself,obviously), with two out of the following three mafia: BM, Vivi57, Foolishness. Just the way he analyzed the sudden irrational swing of votes towards KF91, put pressure on Vivi etc, makes me pretty confident Cynan is town-aligned. Possibility 1: BM/Vivi are mafia I'm suspicious of BM for the reasons I listed previously. The fact that he's voting for me now when I'm the only one who thinks he's scum makes me even more suspicious. But as to why I think BM/Vivi have a connection: BM has pretty much FOS'd everyone BUT Vivi. Could this be coincidence? Perhaps. But then he goes: On April 06 2010 16:16 Bill Murray wrote: Go re-read the thread, and see how scummy foolishness and vivi feel to you. They feel pretty scummy to me, with foolishness being condescending, and Vivi posting one liners. Their argument on this page here could be a ruse. Madnessman seems to be acting the way he did when he was a townie to me, and CynanMachae I don't have a good read on yet. I'll update this when I finish reading the whole thread. On April 06 2010 16:21 Bill Murray wrote: jeez this makes me not suspect vivi though.... and wow i shouldnt be defending people with 5 people left in a game... so confusing. Seems to me like this this is a deliberate attempt to hide ties, BM FOS's Vivi, claims he'll go back to read the thread in its entirety, and 5 mins later, is somehow convinced Vivi is town from some nondescript post made on DAY ONE. Also on Day 2, we see Vivi voting in alignment with BM. Cynan puts pressure on Vivi to explain why he was so quick to jump on BM's bandwagon, and Vivi appeases Cynan and tosses out a pbpa, but then only 15 minutes later, he changes his vote to Foolishness, so he is no longer voting in alignment with BM. Intentional or unintentional? I don't know, but all a large neat coincidence if it's unintentional. On April 04 2010 07:38 Vivi57 wrote: ok, pbpa on kf91 incoming. Yesterday, I just had a gut feeling about him and didn't really have a case. Lets see what happens when I reread him. 1,2. newb post, acting or not? Defers to more experienced players 3. "why vote for me?" 4. instantly in love with L 5. wants to kill inactives. somewhat contradicts the idea that he's a newb 6. says that post was to induce activity 7. getting defensive 8. essentially arguing that we have no information and should lynch randomly. This is advocating a very pro mafia play, trying to undermine the towns only advantage 9. weak vote on flamewheel for being "too wordy". This vote stays there the whole day 10. interesting. critizing L and flamewheel. The two dead people. 11. long list of accusations. RoL and I basically. One interesting thing I did notice in his last post is how he talks about foolishness disagreeing with everything he said basically. I reread it and the dynamic established between them is definitely worth looking at. Based on his last post where he refuses to comment on foolishness, I'm going to keep my vote there and seriously consider RoL's foolishness/kf theory. and since my last vote probably didn't go through ##vote kf91## Right now, I'm going to reread L and flamewheel and see if anything good comes up. On April 04 2010 07:53 Vivi57 wrote: wow. I just noticed that. Does anyone have any examples of foolishness posting stuff with the intention of discrediting a vet as town because I have one where he does it as mafia: + Show Spoiler + On March 15 2010 09:38 Foolishness wrote: Yo, I got a few questions for you. I think some answers will help clear up a lot of confusion with the town right now, cause right now, the town's a shitstorm of inactivity. 1) Who do you want to lynch today? You got elected as mayor, you claimed (through one person or another) that you are the DT. I'm assuming you did not find a mafia with your check or you would have said so right? It's impossible for me to know by what you're doing right now. You voted for Abenson, you put Abenson in your "random list of suspects" (more on that later). So do you want the town to lynch Abenson? I have no idea what you think of things right now. Maybe you really want to lynch L cause you think he's scum? You should probably say something. This brings me to the next point: 2) Why are you being a crappy leader? You accepted your role as mayor, you even claimed (you said you were going to claim if vivi had not done for you) so you could get into office. There, it's done. Now do something about it! You haven't done much of anything since being elected, and hey if I do say so myself, you weren't doing much before elections either. Right now, L is doing a better job of being mayor than you are, he's actively voicing his opinions and arguing with people. That's good for town. You sitting in your mayoral chair whacking off waiting until your next DT check isn't helping the town. This is assuming you even are the DT, and hey guess what it looks kinda sketchy now. There is a point that needs to be addressed to the town. L claims he has a circle of 3(?) blues, BC said he claimed to people and has hinted he knows blues, Incog claims he knows a bunch of blues as well. There are more blues going around than there are probably in the game. If you all were really blue, why haven't you coordinated together? If all of you were legit, I'd expect this game to be near over for the mafia because you probably know over half the town is innocent. Why isn't this happening? Why are none of you telling us who to lynch (exception of L here). Somebody's full of shit with you three. At least one of you is lying about the information you know. Based on what you three have individually said, this game should be nearly over. Why are we still playing and why are we guessing on who to lynch today? BC I'd like to remind you of the game past (forgot which one off the top of my head) where you got elected mayor and couldn't control your town and Pyrry led the mafia to victory. That game you made it seem like you knew a bunch of blue roles, knew exactly what you were doing to lead the town to victory, and you didn't. I had to take over as pseudo mayor that game because everyone realized you had no information. Right now I'm starting to feel the same way (although I'll give you it's still early in the game). But if blues start dying and we fail to lynch mafia, I hope you're willing to be held accountable. Your mayor of this town. Do something about it. this is foolishness AS MAFIA. he plays a very solid scum and is great at creating chaos. Just the fact that he'd post that to discredit L before we even start makes me think he's likely to be scum. I support the kf/foolishness theory 100% now, but right now, foolishness takes my vote. ##vote foolishness## Possibility 2: Vivi/Foolishness are mafia Vivi basically doesn't post anything helpful for the first 2 days, besides "let's lynch L!" "let's lynch L in case he comes back as a mafia zombie!" I haven't called out Vivi before because he has posted so little of content and there was never enough of a basis to be suspicious of him, but I always figured that during "crunch time" he would post most more in an effort to help the town, or at least post more and slip up if he were mafia. But then he comes out of nowhere defending Foolishness: On April 03 2010 21:29 Vivi57 wrote: ok, I reread foolishness and at first, I looked at the end and tried to find a connection between kf91 and him, but as I looked through the earlier parts, I saw that foolishness spread all his discussion evenly and put a ton of work into promoting discussion. I am going to make a proposition: let's assume foolishness is town. If he's mafia, we should just gg now because he's going to lead us in circles and the rest of us are too lazy to do anything about it so we'd be screwed anyway. If he's town and we lynch him, we lose anyway, so I say we leave him alone for now. going to put a vote on kf91 for now just so I don't get modkilled. ##vote kf91 I'll go reread more people tomorrow and hopefully post something good. At this point, only RoL has voted for Foolishness to be lynched, and is hard on Foolisheness' case, so I think we can pretty much assume that this post is directed towards RoL. After this post, we see that RoL changes his vote to KF91. Later, Vivi SWITCHES his vote, when it's obvious that Foolishness is NOT going to get lynched, since it's a) close to the deadline b) everyone else OTHER THAN foolishness has voted, and obviously he's not going to vote for himself?! What I find interesting is that when Vivi changes his vote from KF to Foolishness, he changes the vote count from KF:3, Vivi:2, to KF:2, Vivi:2. Why would ANY rational player put himself in that position, ESPECIALLY when Foolishness hasn't voted yet and could easily vote for Vivi? Obviously, he would have no reason to worry if he and Foolish are acting together and he knew that Foolishness would be voting for KF91. He then keeps voicing his suspicions of Foolishness, but as we saw in the first mafia game, nemY did the same thing to Ace, so I don't think this clears him of being mafia. Possibility 3: BM and Foolishness are mafia Also possible, but there aren't strong clues that these two are a pair. I don't know--may have to reread thread more closely to see. tl;dr: just read the stuff in bold I guess? lol. | ||
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madnessman
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On April 07 2010 09:27 Vivi57 wrote: there was about a 0% chance I'd die last night. To tons of people, I was the most suspicious person in the game and the mafia aren't stupid that's ridiculous. foolishness has iterated that he doesn't think you're suspicious, i don't think BM has recently accused you either, I know i haven't... The only people who voiced suspicions were kf91, who is now dead, and cynan, who you are now voting for. On April 07 2010 07:35 Vivi57 wrote: The more I think about it, the more i think foolishness is innocent. In the last game where he was mafia, he was being extremely aggressive. This game, he's sitting there calmly trying to explain why he's innocent trying to diffuse problems instead of pointing fingers. Combined with he fact that he's saying I'm innocent when I'm the most obvious and easiest target for the mafia to mislynch tonight, I'm going to withdraw my vote on foolishness. Also, madnessman/cynan is a likely combo and madnessman didn't once mention cynan as a potential mafia candidate so I'm going to go ahead and vote cynan. ##vote CynanMachae## I think cynan and madnessman are the mafia, but I need bm and foolishness to back me up here (as in, we're fucked if we split up our votes). seems like a power play to me. you're asking foolishness to back you up, who earlier you were so convinced was mafia?! i'm gonna go with: ##Vote Vivi57## | ||
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madnessman
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On April 07 2010 10:47 Bill Murray wrote: all i know is i'm green, so if you're green, you can't count me with you. and madnessman, with 5 people left, i don't think people give a fuck if i post 8 times in a row. it's not like they were spam. i was building cases. if you don't like it, we can lynch you. "if you don't like it, we can lynch you." we? you and your partner you mean? | ||
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madnessman
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gonna vote for the guy who's gonna get modkilled ##Vote CynanMachae## | ||
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madnessman
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##Vote Viv57## | ||
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madnessman
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1. if cynan dies and flips green, mafia doesn't necessary outnumber the town if they attempt to hit whoever the medic is protecting. 2. i'd say im like 85% sure that cynan is town, but if i'm wrong and cynan is mafia, town has a chance to win still. as opposed to: 1. me+cynan both getting killed off and mafia wins. i see now that we have one more day, thank gawd, and there's still the chance to get a mafia lynched. so let me fix my vote: ##Vote Vivi57## | ||
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madnessman
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also, foolishness didn't vote. if he were mafia, me+cynan green, then if him+cynan get modkilled, i get lynched. = ur left with a member of the mafia. from ur comment i'm guessing ur not a medic. so u get hit at night, town loses. cynan is mafia, me+foolishness green. him+cynan get modkilled, i get lynched. = same situation where ur left with one member of the town, and town loses. all 3 of us are green=town loses. of course there's the possibility that cynan/foolishness are mafia together. this doesn't seem like a likely pair to me. but if this were the case, irregardless of how i vote, if cynan+foolishness both had gotten modkilled, it wouldn't have mattered what i did because town would win anyway. i thought this may have been a repeat of micro-mafia 1 where ppl just didn't show up, but i don't think im making terrible assumptions...in terms of PROBABILITY of town winning, it would've helped our chances. | ||
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madnessman
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madnessman
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madnessman
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On April 07 2010 23:21 Foolishness wrote: Okay I'm going reiterate what I said. If Vivi and I are both mafia, that would mean we would have had staged the whole accusation/defense between the two of us. Do you really think the mafia would go through such an elaborate plan? Maybe, but given the fact that there have been some pairings that have been pretty chill at each other (madnessman/Cynan, BM/anyone but madnessman for example) I don't think this is likely. Also consider, given the fact that RoL died after he was putting constant pressure on me, I'd be the number one lynch candidate right now. After Vivi voted for me today, I thought there'd be a huge bandwagon on me, and I was practically shitting my pants cause I thought I'd died for sure and then town would lose. If we were both mafia, there'd be no reason for Vivi to vote for me like that, he could just easily put the pressure on someone else, and there'd be no reason for him to accuse me (especially since me having to defend myself just makes it more likely I'll slip up). And yeah, I want to hold Cynan to his word. So far he's half delivering. I think if he was posting more it would clear up a lot of confusion. I normally don't like voting early, but as BM said it's necessary to get things moving. Hopefully he'll talk some more and we can figure this out. ##Vote CynanMachae## So I see that Foolishness is voting in alignment with Vivi...why doesn't that surprise me? I really don't think it would be a "huge, elaborate" plan for Vivi and Foolish to be working together. Why? Vivi defends Foolish when there's pressure on him, and only accuses him only when there's little to no chance he's going to get lynched. Sounds like a pretty good way for mafia members to disassociate themselves from each other. Also, I don't think we can take Vivi's voting pattern as coincidence. He puts himself in danger of being lynched, when Foolish is casting the deciding vote and could vote for him. If a regular townie thought Foolish was mafia, why would he put himself in a position where Foolish could easily get him lynched? Looks like the game is in BM's hands now. It's wound up to be me and cynan voting against vivi and foolishness, with BM casting the deciding vote. I think I've brought up specific scenarios where vivi acts scummy, and acting as though he's in alignment with foolish, which would make voting for vivi a pretty safe bet. On the other hand, vivi and foolishness hardly provide solid reasons why they think cynan is scum. So I don't know what else I can say...Seems pretty clear cut to me, but BM I hope yo uthink all this over and make the right decision. Unless you're mafia then we're screwed with you casting the final vote :/. | ||
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madnessman
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madnessman
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Thanks Zona! | ||
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madnessman
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On April 08 2010 16:59 Bill Murray wrote: ME? I'm the only one who didnt vote for a fucking townie in the end from the town. MVP: Foolishness by far LVP: CynanMachae On April 08 2010 11:01 Bill Murray wrote: fuck it ##vote vivi57## On April 08 2010 11:12 Bill Murray wrote: is it too late to vote for cynanmachae haha yes gj. | ||
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