|
With ~OpZ~ and Abenson changing his opinion, JeeJee seems to be most detailed post arguing for citizen lynch. Let me rip his arguments to shreds.
Argument about vote counts
This argument also assumes that entire Mafia players chose to vote for one person three consecutive days. Seriously? I thought the most basic assumption about Mafia voting pattern was that they would try to avoid suspicion by spreading their votes as much as possible. Yes, they were all bandwagon votes, but RoL and Xelin bandwagon had so much steam going into it there was little reason for Mafia to all-in every time. Overall his repeated statement that four of us voted for same person over and over again is WIFOM.
Another specific flaw I found; JeeJee states that four of us created wagon against Nikon when only alternative lynch target was Caller- only for citizen and me to start Caller bandwagon very next day. What? If Caller also is Townie, why wouldn't we have followed the bandwagon suggested by confirmed Townie? Remember you said we are not following the bandwagon that has already formed, but started it. There must be motive for Mafia to start the bandwagon that goes against the argument of confirmed Townie, and therefore draw suspicion later on. If both Nikon and Caller is Townie, it is absolutely illogical for Mafia to continue their bandwagon against Nikon and Caller even when confirmed Townie is strongly arguing for alternative lynch target.
Argument against abilities
If Mafia - Caller in this case because he is certainly Mafia if citizen is innocent - intended to start bandwagon against citizen, they might easily could have chosen to keep their nuke-stealer in check to further incriminate him. Absense of nuke steal proves nothing.
I cannot even understand what you are arguing here. Citizen had his nuke stolen (because immobile three nukes are perfect nuke-stealer target), but cannot say it publicly because it proves his ability cannot NK the people visiting him? Um... didn't we get that verified when Caller claimed to have checked him? I feel like I did not completely understand your point here, so clarification is welcome.
Argument against setup
"all we know is that there isn't five mafia": your entire argument hinges on this argument being true. I can only see you thinking Caller/~OpZ~/Abenson/d3/yourself are Townies, because otherwise I cannot see why you would make such statement with confidence. Let me state this means nothing. If Caller is Mafia he and d3_crescentia are no longer confirmed Townie. If so it is still possible there are five Mafia present in the game. Also, you berate laaan for never "[considering] the point that there might not be four mafia, but less", but did anyone ever express an opinion that there might be less than three Mafia previous to your post?
I have to go momentarily for now, so I'll post my thought about JeeJee's remaining arguments later.
|
On April 09 2010 06:36 Elemenope wrote:i'm not going to argue the other two points as that's more for shinbi to answer imo. Show nested quote +On April 09 2010 06:28 haster27 wrote:
Argument against setup
"all we know is that there isn't five mafia": your entire argument hinges on this argument being true. I can only see you thinking Caller/~OpZ~/Abenson/d3/yourself are Townies, because otherwise I cannot see why you would make such statement with confidence. Let me state this means nothing. If Caller is Mafia he and d3_crescentia are no longer confirmed Townie. If so it is still possible there are five Mafia present in the game. Also, you berate laaan for never "[considering] the point that there might not be four mafia, but less", but did anyone ever express an opinion that there might be less than three Mafia previous to your post?
It's mathematically impossible for there to be 5 mafia. Are you even paying attention at all? And secondly: I did express concerns that there may be no mafia at all in fact, and it may be two anti-town SKs actually, prior to Nemy launching his nuke towards Nikon I believe actually. I'd still like to hear Opz/Abenson's reasoning behind suddenly switching votes, especially at the last second, and secondly: the nuke on Iaaan.
Remember I am new to TL Mafia. If you are going to dismiss it as mathematics, you are at least going to need to show your entire work to get marks. However, I acknowledge my mistake if you really suggested there were no Mafia- however, having team of three Mafia and two independent SK who may or may not know each other is completely different thing. In case this is two SK game, laaan has no reason to defend a position about number of mafia- thus JeeJee's point is still moot.
On April 09 2010 06:41 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Where were you to further argue with me earlier? I would of preferred that. Honestly I have no idea which of you is mafia. Caller not being mafia pretty much hands the game over to town, right then and there. Almost everyone becomes confirmed. Sounds extremely nice. Now let's see if he's right.
Citizen voters and would-be voters:
Iaaan
LMNOP
Caller
JeeJee
I would like this to be noted.
I would also like it to be noted all who didn't cast their votes.
D3. Abenson, Haster, Myself, Citizen.
Let's see where this goes after Caller dies.
D3 cast your vote.
I was somewhat busy, and was trying to find an error that critically flawed Caller's position during the spare time I had because at the time it seemed like nothing but a punch in the face would cause you to change votes.
On April 09 2010 07:29 Elemenope wrote:Show nested quote +On April 09 2010 07:19 ~OpZ~ wrote:On April 09 2010 06:46 Elemenope wrote:On April 09 2010 06:41 ~OpZ~ wrote:On April 09 2010 06:28 haster27 wrote:
With ~OpZ~ and Abenson changing his opinion, JeeJee seems to be most detailed post arguing for citizen lynch. Let me rip his arguments to shreds.
Argument about vote counts
This argument also assumes that entire Mafia players chose to vote for one person three consecutive days. Seriously? I thought the most basic assumption about Mafia voting pattern was that they would try to avoid suspicion by spreading their votes as much as possible. Yes, they were all bandwagon votes, but RoL and Xelin bandwagon had so much steam going into it there was little reason for Mafia to all-in every time. Overall his repeated statement that four of us voted for same person over and over again is WIFOM.
Another specific flaw I found; JeeJee states that four of us created wagon against Nikon when only alternative lynch target was Caller- only for citizen and me to start Caller bandwagon very next day. What? If Caller also is Townie, why wouldn't we have followed the bandwagon suggested by confirmed Townie? Remember you said we are not following the bandwagon that has already formed, but started it. There must be motive for Mafia to start the bandwagon that goes against the argument of confirmed Townie, and therefore draw suspicion later on. If both Nikon and Caller is Townie, it is absolutely illogical for Mafia to continue their bandwagon against Nikon and Caller even when confirmed Townie is strongly arguing for alternative lynch target.
Argument against abilities
If Mafia - Caller in this case because he is certainly Mafia if citizen is innocent - intended to start bandwagon against citizen, they might easily could have chosen to keep their nuke-stealer in check to further incriminate him. Absense of nuke steal proves nothing.
I cannot even understand what you are arguing here. Citizen had his nuke stolen (because immobile three nukes are perfect nuke-stealer target), but cannot say it publicly because it proves his ability cannot NK the people visiting him? Um... didn't we get that verified when Caller claimed to have checked him? I feel like I did not completely understand your point here, so clarification is welcome.
Argument against setup
"all we know is that there isn't five mafia": your entire argument hinges on this argument being true. I can only see you thinking Caller/~OpZ~/Abenson/d3/yourself are Townies, because otherwise I cannot see why you would make such statement with confidence. Let me state this means nothing. If Caller is Mafia he and d3_crescentia are no longer confirmed Townie. If so it is still possible there are five Mafia present in the game. Also, you berate laaan for never "[considering] the point that there might not be four mafia, but less", but did anyone ever express an opinion that there might be less than three Mafia previous to your post?
I have to go momentarily for now, so I'll post my thought about JeeJee's remaining arguments later.
Where were you to further argue with me earlier? I would of preferred that. Honestly I have no idea which of you is mafia. Caller not being mafia pretty much hands the game over to town, right then and there. Almost everyone becomes confirmed. Sounds extremely nice. Now let's see if he's right. Citizen voters and would-be voters:
Iaaan
LMNOP
Caller
JeeJee
I would like this to be noted. I would also like it to be noted all who didn't cast their votes. D3. Abenson, Haster, Myself, Citizen. Let's see where this goes after Caller dies. D3 cast your vote. Before going any further: I'd like to hear your mafia suspect list. Please cast your vote for the suspect that seems most scummy. JeeJee should say his role now. I assume he's protown. I assume Iaaan is protown also through knowledge of the daytime nuke protection. Now there is Caller and LMNOP I can't judge. Abenson and I are masons. 2 confirms, and 2 EXTREMELY likely townies. Haster, Citizen vs. Caller - Let's see where it goes. And the nonposting d3. I'm not going to post my suspects. Please post your vote and further arguments. Convince me I'm wrong. I shouldn't need to explain my change of vote to someone who didn't vote. How can I convince you that you're wrong when you don't even list a suspect list? You claim that we should just lynch Caller and see where this goes when if we lynch Caller and he's town, we lose if there is 4 mafia alive. With the way you've been acting the previous day and this day, I'd almost say that you and Abenson are in fact mafia and are trying to play off Mason. The fact that you all are so hasty with your votes when we're in most likely a lylo situation is just suspicious. Do you not understand the implications of a mislynch? Stop trying to act so high and might because I'm not voting right away when we're in a lylo situation. You need to explain your change of vote.
Halt. This is so hypocritical I don't know where to begin.
1) Town is in lylo position; thus it equally means that if citizen is lynched and he is town, we lose.
2) ~OpZ~ and Abenson cannot be Mafia. Believe me, yesterday I REALLY REALLY wanted to believe they are intelligent Mafia, but I knew it was not possible because of two facts: 1) false-claiming one's country so early in the game is suicidal because he could accidentally claim a country being represented by another player, and 2) their nuke switching ability which was proved by ~OpZ~ and Abenson false-nuking each other. Since nuke-stealer is Mafia, it is highly likely nuke switching ability would go to Townie.
3) Hello? ~OpZ~ already explained this, no need for me to say anything else.
|
His fourth point are mainly acceptable, but I cannot believe you are seriously sticking to inconsistencies argument. Your second and fourth point becomes absolutely obsolete if we assume citizen is being truthful. I mean, you are free to assume paranoid gun owner must have NK counter ability, but unless you are able to verify that claim you have no right to treat citizen's ability as false. This is lylo situation- are you seriously willing to vote citizen over Caller just because of this single assumption?
|
Infund, you are just repeating what Caller said. "Unless someone wants to come out and claim either Israel or Japan to refute Caller?" may sound pretty on the paper, but it only confirms that there are no evidence that contradict Caller's claim completely (at which point Caller would have been voted off already). It does nothing in determining whether he is lying or not.
As for the five Mafia thing, oops. 
Finally I think nuke ~OpZ~ launched against laaan is real, which is why I have not been discussing any of JeeJee's point about him at all- he is going to be verified sooner or later. Only thing town has to do is extend a day by launching a fake nuke after all.
|
Okay, I see you replied as well JeeJee. Will try to reply now.
|
You actually made pretty good points. I concede on your first and second point for now, and Mafia number argument had come from my momentary lapse into stupidity.
On April 09 2010 08:36 JeeJee wrote:Show nested quote +On April 09 2010 06:28 haster27 wrote:
Argument against abilities
If Mafia - Caller in this case because he is certainly Mafia if citizen is innocent - intended to start bandwagon against citizen, they might easily could have chosen to keep their nuke-stealer in check to further incriminate him. Absense of nuke steal proves nothing.
I cannot even understand what you are arguing here. Citizen had his nuke stolen (because immobile three nukes are perfect nuke-stealer target), but cannot say it publicly because it proves his ability cannot NK the people visiting him? Um... didn't we get that verified when Caller claimed to have checked him? I feel like I did not completely understand your point here, so clarification is welcome.
read closer. if citizen is townie (and apparently he gave up on claiming he has anything other than townie powers at this point), his 3 nukes are lying there waiting to be taken. why weren't they?
First, you are ignoring my first paragraph that Mafia could have tried to frame more evidence against him, but I'll accept that this is a point that cannot be verified.
Second,
On April 09 2010 06:36 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Why wouldn't citizens nukes have been stolen? Because the mafia take him to be PGO. Caller claims the only person that mafia can't NK without dying is scum because his team can't NK him. So can we lynch Caller and get on with this game now?
I already posted my opinion about how citizen lied about his claim:
[Your] fourth point are mainly acceptable, but I cannot believe you are seriously sticking to inconsistencies argument. Your second and fourth point becomes absolutely obsolete if we assume citizen is being truthful. I mean, you are free to assume paranoid gun owner must have NK counter ability, but unless you are able to verify that claim you have no right to treat citizen's ability as false. This is lylo situation- are you seriously willing to vote citizen over Caller just because of this single assumption?
The fact that strongest argument against citizen are built upon the assumption that Paranoid Gun Owner must have NK counter ability is really making me nervous.
First, you are ignoring my first paragraph that Mafia could have tried to frame more evidence against him, but I'll accept that this is a point that cannot be verified.
Second,
On April 09 2010 06:36 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Why wouldn't citizens nukes have been stolen? Because the mafia take him to be PGO. Caller claims the only person that mafia can't NK without dying is scum because his team can't NK him. So can we lynch Caller and get on with this game now?
I already posted my opinion about how citizen lied about his claim:
[Your] fourth point are mainly acceptable, but I cannot believe you are seriously sticking to inconsistencies argument. Your second and fourth point becomes absolutely obsolete if we assume citizen is being truthful. I mean, you are free to assume paranoid gun owner must have NK counter ability, but unless you are able to verify that claim you have no right to treat citizen's ability as false. This is lylo situation- are you seriously willing to vote citizen over Caller just because of this single assumption?
The fact that strongest argument against citizen are built upon the assumption that Paranoid Gun Owner must have NK counter ability is really making me nervous.
|
|
|
All this PGO argument reminded me of my past argument. I have not yet seen Caller address this point, even when he quoted the post containing below paragraph:
Also why in the world would you check infund out of all the suspects? Since you are so convinced that his role meant automatic retaliation, you should have avoided him at all costs and checked me like ~OpZ~ suggested. Look, everyone agreed that Mafia and Townie numbers were getting dangerously close, and keeping even one Townie alive was important. So why would you ignore recommendation from confirmed Townie and on your own make a decision that could have costed your life? If infund indeed have been paranoid gun owner (Townie), you (Townie Detective) would have been killed. Thus your took unnecessary action that would have placed the Town in worse position.
|
The reason I didn't cast a vote? Because we don't know if mafia have an anti-nuke or not still
Seriously, Why the fuck are you guys casting votes when we have no idea if there's a mafia anti-nuke out there? If there's a majority on a townie, that's a fucking game over right there if mafia launch an anti-nuke. Think.
It does not matter. In every instance the nuke was intercepted, the day still continued on as normal because the fact that nuke has been intercepted is only revealed at the time nuke is supposed to land.
Since your entire argument against ~OpZ~ being Mafia relies on this misunderstanding, this effectively nullifies your entire case against him.
This is why I'm upset. The fact that you railed against Caller yesterday, suddenly reversed your opinion in an almost 180 degrees today when Caller does his claim, then do another 180 for no apparent reason at the very last fucking second in order to get a majority on Caller. I'm finding your Mason claim especially suspicious now.
In fact I find this absoultely brilliant; I think I understand the reasoning behind his actions, but I am going to keep silent about this unless ~OpZ~ himself speaks up.
|
Look at the consequence of events. I agree:
citizen: I am Paranoid Gun Owner
citizen: I can only launch retaliation nukes.
suspicious as hell. But that is not what the f*** happened. This did:
citizen: I can only launch retaliation nukes.
citizen: I am Paranoid Gun Owner.
Notice that looking at how he described his ability, he could have easily have claimed Townie and went unnoticed if he truly wanted to lie about his role.
|
Okay. I've sent PM to Ace about this anti-nuke problem and told him to clarify within the thread. This should eliminate any unnecessary debates.
Also...
On April 09 2010 10:15 flamewheel91 wrote: 
|
And as I said repeatedly yesterday, I don't care. You can argue against me tomorrow if you wish provided that there are no suspect that is deemed more scummy than me.
|
Okay, I see how JeeJee repeatedly argues that citizen is scummy because his PGO claim was intended to throw off DT check, but his theory directly contradicts with my statement (which was consistently ignored) which is based on reality:
Also why in the world would you check infund out of all the suspects? Since you are so convinced that his role meant automatic retaliation, you should have avoided him at all costs and checked me like ~OpZ~ suggested. Look, everyone agreed that Mafia and Townie numbers were getting dangerously close, and keeping even one Townie alive was important. So why would you ignore recommendation from confirmed Townie and on your own make a decision that could have costed your life? If infund indeed have been paranoid gun owner (Townie), you (Townie Detective) would have been killed. Thus your took unnecessary action that would have placed the Town in worse position.
Caller's choice of check for the night makes no sense at all.
|
Oh okay. I'll start writing explanation now.
|
Basically, what ~OpZ~ and Abenson set up is trap. Everything ~OpZ~ did makes sense if you understand this simple fact. I am assuming ~OpZ~ thought Caller's night check post was suspicious, or at least he must have considered possibility of it being Mafia attempt to bandwagon citizen. I'm throwing my opinion down here, but since town is in lylo state, and because everyone thought Caller was Mafia previous day, how much steam Caller's argument gathered can be used as indicator of its scumminess.
It first begin with Abenson nuking ~OpZ~. Because fake nuke is up in the air, even if the citizen got majority vote, he will not be lynched until 24 hours passed. They followed it up by defending Caller's side, dogmatically sprouting idiotic arguments. Now since this is lylo town, every or at least most Townie needs to vote together to prevent Mafia from controlling the vote- and two confirmed Townie has apparently firmly placed themselves in Caller camp! If citizen is Townie, this gives Mafia hope of ending the game today right now, making more forthcoming in their willingness to support Caller; after all, they had two confirmed Townies fully convinced about their arguments also. ~OpZ~ also attempts to lure out further Mafia by arguing majority is needed before the nuke lands.
On April 08 2010 19:43 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Citizen
Caller
Iaaan
~OpZ~
Citizen
Caller
Citizen
Haster27
Can we get our votes on to citizen before the nuke lands?
I'd rather his lynch be already set up.
Nuke lands at 2:03 KST
FYI
Just need one more to lynch.
Did you actually lie about the time nuke lands so that more lurking people would come forward? lol.
On April 08 2010 19:48 ~OpZ~ wrote:
People who haven't voted:
JeeJee
D3
LMNOP
I would like to hear from all of these players as to why they haven't cast their votes yet. The argument is a pretty split one. Maybe I'm missing some things, but I would like to know every elses take on whether they trust Caller or not.
This is the vote situation at 5 PM.
Citizen
Caller
laaan
~OpZ~
Citizen
JeeJee
Caller
Haster27
Pro-Caller but no vote
Elemenope
Abstaining
Abenson
d3_crescentia/TeddyBear
By the time lynch deadline was near, we got most player's official position on their choice of lynch candidates. So ~OpZ~ snaps his trap shut by withdrawing their support on Caller, and launching nuke toward laaan to: 1) further extend the day, and 2) check the alignment of a player in pro-Caller camp.
|
~OpZ~// I don't see much wrong with voting LMNOP so I will change my vote later on if no new development occurs. It'll actually be interesting to see who Caller "confirms" tomorrow. However, I would also like to state that since the town is at permanent lylo position, Caller/citizen issue needs to be addressed sooner or later; and I like to get rid of Caller while we still hold the Mason advantage (lol at LMNOP). I'll wait until aTeddyBear makes his vote, or it is about ~4 KSP before switching my vote to LMNOP.
aTeddyBear, please make your vote within ~4 KSP. I love how you eagerly volunteered into this game, yet immediately starts lurking just like d3_crescentia. Perhaps his Mafia brethrens telling him to pursue the same strategy?
I think nobody would have problem voting for LMNOP since I, ~Opz~, Abenson, JeeJee, and citizen (perhaps) can form a majority.
|
Eh. Still, I really wish d3 would speak up since he has come back. He is missing all the debate, and how he votes could be game-deciding.
|
Actually either laaan or d3_crescentia could decide to join us, and since one vote is all we need, what about launching a fake nuke to extend the day rather than rushing to switch to LMNOP when deadline draws near? I would like to hear everyone's opinion on 1) vote switch from Caller to LMNOP, and 2) extending the day further.
|
On April 10 2010 02:51 JeeJee wrote:
hold on let me get this straight
if we're in lylo, lmnop has to be mafia, and if we're not, it's okay if we fuck up since it's not lylo?
my question is, why do you ignore a lying roleclaimer in favor of someone who may not be mafia at all, just because if he isn't, we can make a mistake? do you realize this means this time next day will be the same except we will have one less townie arguing? and instead of 1/3 town being mafia, it will be almost half?
@citizen i have all the answers to that post; i am surprised you misinterpretted my position yet again, but i have to run to a meeting. i will be back in 1hr10min +/-10min, well before any nuke deadline. so BE HERE
Where did lylo come from? I thought ~OpZ~ said LMNOP was Mafia no matter either citizen or Caller was lying, which makes him a perfect compromise. Hell, you even agreed he has to be Mafia if Caller is correct:
On April 08 2010 23:45 JeeJee wrote:
let me rip the mafia to shreds
iaaan
haster
citi.zen
lmnop
Currently there are 4 Mafia 5 Townie. (44.4%)
Next day there will be 3 Mafia 4 Townie. (42.9%)
Where did 1/3 and half the Town argument come from? (unless I am failing at numbers again.) Moreover, the fact that Town has to vote together does not change, and getting four Townies to agree with each other will definitely be easier than getting five Townies to agree with each other.
However, I agree with your statement that it is beneficial to get Caller/citizen issue resolved now- and I am eagerly waiting how laaan and d3_cresentia will place his vote. Hopefully it will be enough to break this stalemate.
|
On April 10 2010 03:40 citi.zen wrote:
I can't believe you guys are still not seeing that Caller is red. It's beyond me how he can have you believe one lie after another after another simply by changing his story after any new suspicion is shed on him.
Look at micro-mafia 1. I was in the same situation with Ace there. I was right there too. Of course, being right doesn't matter if you can't persuade others, so I guess I fail and Caller wins. Too bad for the town. Sorry, I am out of patience.
Jesus Christ, be glad you are not voted out like you did in micro-mafia 1. I hate when people use other games for their argument- that is exactly where all this PGO nonsense is coming from. The most important thing today is to prevent Townie (you) lynch, so there should be no problem voting off LMNOP if the situation demands so.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT![[image loading]](http://images.veer.com/IMG/PILL/SSI/SSI0012345_P.JPG)
