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World at War Mafia - Page 67

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tree.hugger
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
Philadelphia, PA10406 Posts
March 29 2010 01:57 GMT
#1321
On March 29 2010 10:53 Zona wrote:
tree.hugger - this is a question you should take some time to answer:
Show nested quote +
On March 29 2010 10:44 Versatile wrote:
what are your thoughts on who to lynch, besides opz? your posts are going to be useful to the town if you don't get saved by an anti-nuke.

If/when you flip town, your posts are something we should go over closely, so make the most of it.

I'm in the process of writing my obit, stay with me. I'll have it all laid out for you.
ModeratorEffOrt, Snow, GuMiho, and Team Liquid
Abenson
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
Canada4122 Posts
March 29 2010 02:11 GMT
#1322
Back~
~OpZ~
Profile Blog Joined May 2005
United States3652 Posts
March 29 2010 02:19 GMT
#1323
you got a lot to read partner...in short, I needed you two days ago
Maybe I could teach Osama that using a plane as a wraith or dropship would be 10x better than using it as a scourge..... ^^; -Flex
Abenson
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
Canada4122 Posts
March 29 2010 02:28 GMT
#1324
Yep
I kinda realized that
finished reading...

The wonderfully useless guy is back!
flamewheel
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
March 29 2010 02:46 GMT
#1325
Hrm Abenson has returned.
+ Show Spoiler [^.^] +
[image loading]
Writerdamn, i was two days from retirement
XeliN
Profile Joined June 2009
United Kingdom1755 Posts
March 29 2010 02:47 GMT
#1326
Yay Abensons back, finally someone to lead the town to victory!
Adonai bless
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
March 29 2010 07:57 GMT
#1327
EXPLOSION!


[image loading]



The missile launched by L wasn't nuclear and Caller only loses 10% of his population to lots of fire and shrapnel.

Caller survives the attack by L!







Missiles launched by ~Opz~ towards tree.hugger will strike at 1:54 KST!





Nukes in the air: 1
Nukes detonated: 3
Radiation levels: low


Day currently ends at 1:54 KST
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
Nikon
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
Bulgaria5710 Posts
March 29 2010 11:23 GMT
#1328
Wow, the day might end soon!

Just so we're clear: First I get this:

On March 28 2010 23:12 Zona wrote:
Post your plans, comments on plans, who you're suspicious of, what actions seem anti-town, etc. Plus posting isn't just to add to the discussion, but to allow the town to get a read on YOU. If you don't give us anything to work with, lurker scum can use you as someone to hide among. If you're town, that is.


And then there's

On March 29 2010 00:06 Zona wrote:
We have 3 nuke-initiators. If we get no further information I'm comfortable lynching any among them. But we haven't even hit the first night yet, why don't we at least wait to see what information surfaces before we talk about an event that's far in the future?


You're directly disagreeing with yourself. Based on this and how you've omitted various pieces of information in your nice big posts, I'd say that you're red.

The question is... what should I do with you.
~OpZ~
Profile Blog Joined May 2005
United States3652 Posts
March 29 2010 13:49 GMT
#1329
On March 29 2010 10:57 tree.hugger wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 29 2010 10:53 Zona wrote:
tree.hugger - this is a question you should take some time to answer:
On March 29 2010 10:44 Versatile wrote:
what are your thoughts on who to lynch, besides opz? your posts are going to be useful to the town if you don't get saved by an anti-nuke.

If/when you flip town, your posts are something we should go over closely, so make the most of it.

I'm in the process of writing my obit, stay with me. I'll have it all laid out for you.


-_-...You know you not posting what versatile and zona asked for is pretty scummy....k thx.
Maybe I could teach Osama that using a plane as a wraith or dropship would be 10x better than using it as a scourge..... ^^; -Flex
JeeJee
Profile Blog Joined July 2003
Canada5652 Posts
March 29 2010 14:11 GMT
#1330
On March 29 2010 20:23 Nikon wrote:
Wow, the day might end soon!

Just so we're clear: First I get this:

Show nested quote +
On March 28 2010 23:12 Zona wrote:
Post your plans, comments on plans, who you're suspicious of, what actions seem anti-town, etc. Plus posting isn't just to add to the discussion, but to allow the town to get a read on YOU. If you don't give us anything to work with, lurker scum can use you as someone to hide among. If you're town, that is.


And then there's

Show nested quote +
On March 29 2010 00:06 Zona wrote:
We have 3 nuke-initiators. If we get no further information I'm comfortable lynching any among them. But we haven't even hit the first night yet, why don't we at least wait to see what information surfaces before we talk about an event that's far in the future?


You're directly disagreeing with yourself. Based on this and how you've omitted various pieces of information in your nice big posts, I'd say that you're red.

The question is... what should I do with you.

I thought this was a weird accusation, especially on someone who most, myself included, consider quite pro-town (one of the most useful players for sure). So I decided to run through your old posts and see what I can dig up

Nikon
-against early nukes
-for lynch-the-nuker plan.
-randomly suggests a 3rd mason in opz/abenson circle
-a little ad hominem vs bill murray
-wants xelin dead

well, aside from that there's not too much substance in his posts. and of course there aren't that many posts to begin with (24 i believe after the /confirm post). however the points he has made (or rather, agreed with) have been pro-town. I'm leaning towards the fact that nikon is town-aligned, but i feel there's something odd. most importantly i notice that he hasn't actually contributed much more beyond agreeing with pro-town plans. i still feel it's not a big deal, it's just that his random "zona is red" and hinting at his desire to nuke zona made me raise an eyebrow. what do you guys (and nikon in particular) think?
my take is he's town-aligned, but as long as we still have day, might as well keep discussing, n'est pas?
(\o/)  If you want it, you find a way. Otherwise you find excuses. No exceptions.
 /_\   aka Shinbi (requesting a name change since 27/05/09 ☺)
~OpZ~
Profile Blog Joined May 2005
United States3652 Posts
March 29 2010 14:22 GMT
#1331
On March 29 2010 10:19 Zona wrote:
Thirdly, I DETEST the argument that getting towards the ToD strictly removes nukes as an option from the other side. Sure, you make it harder for the other side to win with nukes. But you also GRANT them the option of forcing a draw using nukes if they're close to losing. Why is everyone just looking at one side of things and not the other side with the consequences or alternatives?


Oh, and Zona? That problem with the mafia trying to get a draw? Don't you support saving anti-nukes? Well guess what...Town launches almost all their nukes, increase ToD, no one needs to anti-nuke, so all other anti-nukes are saved. Then when mafia tries to force a draw, you antinuke it. They would have to reveal themselves by nuking to begin with, and at the ToD's high point, a townie will not fire a nuke.

AGAIN, you've argued to save anti-nukes for late game. So your argument makes no sense why wouldn't we want to increase the ToD. If it's the town launching the nukes at ONE player, then the MAFIA can't nuke anyway.

Town wont want to nuke
Mafia will possibly want to cause draw, and will be forced to out themselves by nuking.
The rest of the anti-nukes would be saved to prevent the draw, as town would have no need for nukes. The mafia couldn't use them as day kills because the ToD, and it would out themselves.

Find the problem there. Because I don't see it. We wouldn't stop the 3 to 6 nukes flying at our target, so we'd have the anti-nukes to stop mafia from causing the draw that you had a problem with.
Maybe I could teach Osama that using a plane as a wraith or dropship would be 10x better than using it as a scourge..... ^^; -Flex
haster27
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Taiwan809 Posts
March 29 2010 14:46 GMT
#1332
Okay, I thought about it, and I do not believe high ToD plan is such a good idea. Just think of ToD as number of available nukes in the game- if we interpret it like this, there would be argument that we should try to save nuke for more surer, important targets rather than launching it meaninglessly. This is basically the same thing; though Mafia can launch less and less nuke as ToD increase, so can't we. I'm not sure, but we could find ourselves stuck and unable to launch nukes when we have confirmed Mafia due to raising ToD so high at the beginning. Let's delay launching nukes at least until we see how tree.hugger and versatile flip.
Amber[LighT]
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States5078 Posts
March 29 2010 14:58 GMT
#1333
On March 29 2010 23:22 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 29 2010 10:19 Zona wrote:
Thirdly, I DETEST the argument that getting towards the ToD strictly removes nukes as an option from the other side. Sure, you make it harder for the other side to win with nukes. But you also GRANT them the option of forcing a draw using nukes if they're close to losing. Why is everyone just looking at one side of things and not the other side with the consequences or alternatives?


Oh, and Zona? That problem with the mafia trying to get a draw? Don't you support saving anti-nukes? Well guess what...Town launches almost all their nukes, increase ToD, no one needs to anti-nuke, so all other anti-nukes are saved. Then when mafia tries to force a draw, you antinuke it. They would have to reveal themselves by nuking to begin with, and at the ToD's high point, a townie will not fire a nuke.

AGAIN, you've argued to save anti-nukes for late game. So your argument makes no sense why wouldn't we want to increase the ToD. If it's the town launching the nukes at ONE player, then the MAFIA can't nuke anyway.

Town wont want to nuke
Mafia will possibly want to cause draw, and will be forced to out themselves by nuking.
The rest of the anti-nukes would be saved to prevent the draw, as town would have no need for nukes. The mafia couldn't use them as day kills because the ToD, and it would out themselves.

Find the problem there. Because I don't see it. We wouldn't stop the 3 to 6 nukes flying at our target, so we'd have the anti-nukes to stop mafia from causing the draw that you had a problem with.


This plan, though I agree with, seems extremely risky. We're threatening a number of townies' lives. The mafia could outnumber us if we're sending nukes around like they're going out of style and killing our own. That and we'll begin accusing ourselves for killing our town foolishly.
"We have unfinished business, I and he."
~OpZ~
Profile Blog Joined May 2005
United States3652 Posts
March 29 2010 15:12 GMT
#1334
That plan...Amber...Involves NUKING ONE PERSON, and leaving it at that. Everyone launches their nukes at a single person.

I posted it last page, a development off of L's original plan.
Maybe I could teach Osama that using a plane as a wraith or dropship would be 10x better than using it as a scourge..... ^^; -Flex
Amber[LighT]
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States5078 Posts
March 29 2010 15:17 GMT
#1335
On March 30 2010 00:12 ~OpZ~ wrote:
That plan...Amber...Involves NUKING ONE PERSON, and leaving it at that. Everyone launches their nukes at a single person.

I posted it last page, a development off of L's original plan.


whoops back to work for me
"We have unfinished business, I and he."
tree.hugger
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
Philadelphia, PA10406 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-03-29 15:45:19
March 29 2010 15:41 GMT
#1336
OpZ, you're a total idiot, I had plenty of time to answer their questions, were you just trying to be annoying? Anyway, I've gotta go to class right now, and I'm due to die within the hour, so this is what I've got. Something's probably right, but it's probably mostly wrong. Enjoy.

Also, Ace when I die, I'd love to know the role-list. Thanks.
***

Alright, since ~OpZ~ the All-Knowing decided to join the idiot brigade, I’ve prepared this little statement, which should gain considerable weight when I flip green, and ~OpZ~ bangs his tiny head against the keyboard.

BRIEF HISTORICAL INTERLUDE: I think this is a little how Robespierre felt when he was being led to the guillotine; devoured by the monster he helped create.

***

Let’s go to the beginning.

I’m Germany, town aligned, and began the game with three nukes. This is actually easily verifiable, in my first post, I dropped a few clues as to my nationality. See if you can find them!
On March 23 2010 13:35 tree.hugger wrote:
Yes, those are all good ideas. We must do our best to be efficient with our nuclear arsenals. Furthermore, we need everyone to post a great deal in this thread, because, similarly to Mafia XX, behavioral analysis will be paramount. We need people to be able to read the zeitgeist of the thread, so to speak. Analysis should be posted in bulk quantities, we must be unified in our front against the conspiracy.

Players with special roles should use them early and often. The French must cook, and should otherwise stay out of the discussion.


I voted for L at the beginning of the game because I rate L’s deductive skills fairly poorly, and his constant ‘I’ll vote for myself if Player X isn’t mafia’ ploys struck me as unsporting and frustrating, especially because they were often wrong. I think L’s style of play is on the whole an unproductive one, he takes his analysis as gospel, and does not tolerate dissent in a way that is unhealthy for the town. When people began to take votes away from L, I was busy with a class, and not fully apprised of events in the thread, and so I briefly posted to reaffirm my support for L being unhelpful, and left it at that. I also obviously did not anticipate the day lasting forever.

When I finally got back in touch with the thread, there was no point in changing my vote, RoL was going to die, and so I didn’t really bother with that, I let my L vote sit because it didn’t matter.

Then came the intervention of the Japanese anti-nuke, and one post leapt out at me:
On March 26 2010 09:15 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Who anti-nuked for Caller? That person should step forward, and RoL should definitely eat Caller's brains....Mafia saving caller? Not in my mafia world?!?!


To which I thought:
On March 26 2010 09:43 tree.hugger wrote:
And immediately get killed by the mafia? Yeah right.

Japan is a country that should certainly have more tricks up their sleeve, having this person out themselves will not happen if they're mafia, and should not happen if they're town aligned and want to stay living.


Then of course, L, knowing that he was a medic, attempted to establish a reason for Japan revealing himself. I don’t need to rehash all of this argument (check the attached archives), it should be pretty clear that L was right knowing what he knew, but knowing what I knew, I was also correct to a degree.

That said, from my point of view, L looked very suspicious to me. Here was someone doggedly pursuing an anti-town position, and attempting to bully the town into accepting it. Despite what L and others have alleged, I actually spent a decent amount of time debating whether or not I should launch a nuke at L. I ran through several possibilities in my head, and concluded that the payoff was too great to pass up, compared with the cost.

As I mapped out earlier, I was certain that, should L be mafia, he would be saved, thereby wasting an anti-nuke, and attaching the FoS firmly on L. If L were town aligned, I figured that if he died, there’d be a plethora of reactions from people to analyze, and I’d also have eliminated someone who (I’ve never denied) was annoying the hell out of me. If L was saved by a townie, I argued strenuously that the townie should NOT announce their intentions, and do so at the last minute, only afterwards claiming responsibility. My idea with this was to guard against the possibility of L being mafia and saved by a townie, while allowing for the save to occur if L was actually town-aligned.

Of course, this entire plan went to pieces when BM role-claimed anti-nukes after which there really wasn’t any choice for him except to save L outright.
On March 27 2010 05:35 tree.hugger wrote:
But even more so, Bill, what the hell were you thinking with that?

You've made a huge mistake to claim your possession of anti-nukes, BM. There was nothing suggesting you would be killed in the night, until now. Which means that if you aren't killed tonight, I'll be damn suspicious of you. And at that, to be honest, I really don't see an out for you. You've essentially requested to be killed in the night, and the choice is whether or not you feel like using your powers. I believe that we let the nuke fall on L, and see what color he is, and whether or not anyone stages an intervention on his behalf.

But in claiming to posses anti-nukes, you've essentially destroyed the possibility of the town using them later in the game for our own benefits. That's like roleclaiming to be the last medic in the game.

That's the most unproductive thing ANYONE has done this game. Goddammit.


After that, I was frustrated with how things had ended up, although I understood that people couldn’t be expected to be on my same wavelength, and in fact, it was probably beneficial to have some people defending ordinary townies from nukes. Also, the question of L’s allegiance had been answered for me, I had come to the conclusion that he was NOT mafia-aligned, which is why I insisted that I would not nuke him, or anyone else again.
On March 27 2010 12:17 tree.hugger wrote:
Also to address L's point, I'd don't see myself nuking anyone else in the near future.


From the moment I decided to launch my nuke, I was also comfortable with the knowledge that I’d have to defend myself from a lynch the next day. Even as the nuke was coming down on L, I was decently confident that I would be able to avoid being lynched on Day 2. Even townies need PR campaigns, and after nuking L I had made every effort to not give ground, while actively contributing to the town, and being as fair as I could in my analysis. My bet was that after the night kill, and the reminder that the mafia is the true target, the appetite for enforcing town rules would evaporate. One of the reasons I argued with L so persistently about not doling out town-justice was because I never really gave it much stock in the first place, enforcing the law is one thing, but when you’re fighting a war, it takes a backseat. To strengthen my hand and one-up L, I pledged to vote for myself if there was the will to lynch me. I had every intention of following through with this, should that actually occur, but at the same time I was also betting I could avoid the noose.

Then, of course, shit hit the fan, and things got ugly between L, Versatile and BM. I was convinced that L was innocent, and I never really entertained the idea that BM would be mafia either.

I’ve actually been pretty removed from the whole process since then, despite my participation in the thread, I really played no part in the action until ~OpZ~ discovered that his penis was larger than his brain, and fired the nuke at me.

I really have nothing much to say about that. When I listed ~OpZ~, Abenson, and Versatile as mafia, I wasn’t entirely serious, just aiming to get a reaction out of them. I was not expecting a nuke fired at me, with significantly less provocation than anyone else except, perhaps XeliN’s nuke of LMNOP.

I don’t think ~OpZ~ is particularly suspicious looking just based on recent activity, his nuke seems more like a rather routine schoolboy desire to be included than the calculated work of the mafia. I doubt I’m a high priority for a mafia kill, unless I’ve been inadvertently getting everything right so far, which is highly unlikely. I don’t think XeliN, Versatile or ~OpZ~ deserve to be lynched based on their nuking behavior. The better question is whether or not they’re mafia.

In conclusion:
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]
This is amazing.


***
So who are the mafia?

Things I learned from being mafia last game:
- Mafia are rarely as coordinated as the town might think.
- The inactive people are more likely mafia than the active ones.

From page #19, I think this is probably the most instructive voting list in the game. This was right before anything really happened, from masons to nukes, and is probably a pretty fair distribution of voting. I’m not unique in thinking this, enough people have pulled out the ‘L list’ as evidence for someone or another.
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 25 2010 03:36 Ace wrote:
With 22 alive, it is 12 to lynch.

L(7)
tree.hugger
Versatile
Abenson
Fishball
RebirthofLegend
~Opz~
d3_crescentia

~Opz~(4)
Xelin
Nikon
Elemenope
iNfuNdiBuLuM


Abenson(7)
Iaaan
Zona
haster27
johnnyspazz
JeeJee
meeple
Amber[LighT]


Bill Murray(2)
Caller
NemY

Non Voting
L
Bill Murray



Day ends at 12 AM ET at the current time


That said, I think the L-list is only one part of this voting spread. There are probably mafia voting for each candidate. I assume there’s 4-5 mafia in this game.

Here’s the list again, with people’s roles filled in:
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 25 2010 03:36 Ace wrote:
[i]With 22 alive, it is 12 to lynch.

L(7)
tree.hugger - Germany, Town
Versatile
Abenson
Fishball
RebirthofLegend - Mexico, Town
~Opz~
d3_crescentia

~Opz~(4)
Xelin
Nikon
Elemenope
iNfuNdiBuLuM


Abenson(7)
Iaaan
Zona
haster27
johnnyspazz - USA, Town
JeeJee
meeple
Amber[LighT]


Bill Murray(2)
Caller
NemY

Non Voting
L - Egypt, Town
Bill Murray - India, Town





Fill in yourself if you’re town aligned. If you’re mafia aligned, you really don’t need to be reading this.

Now let’s take a look at the smallest list; Bill Murray.

On March 24 2010 21:06 Caller wrote:
I change my ##vote to Bill Murray because I don't trust him with a nuclear arsenal

On March 25 2010 02:46 nemY wrote:
I vote ##Vote Bill Murray for the same reason Caller does :/


Awful reasons for voting for a lynch. No thought behind it, which suggests that neither player is particularly interested in the fate of the town. While Caller’s vote seems to be an attempt to make a joke, coming just a few posts after BM’s introduction to the game, nemY’s vote makes absolutely no sense, and seems much more like a vote to start a bandwagon.

Caller never removes his vote from BM due to inactivity, while nemY does… dead last.
On March 26 2010 05:35 nemY wrote:
In light of certain circumstances I'm changing my vote to ##RebirthOfLegend

Regardless of whether he's town or not we set about some ground rules and he openly breaks them. I don't really think we should analyze and discuss this on a case-by-case basis because he FUCKED UP and needs to pay for it. I do get it... really I do, he's likely to be a townie, but nonetheless there needs to be consequences for people who play gung-ho or else this game's gonna go downhill fast.

Which I would think is a pretty generic useless post, although there’s nothing in there that really screams mafia or not. NemY’s been playing that way throughout, posting just enough to be counted active, without really contributing or drawing attention.

Let’s look at the other really interesting list in the bunch: L’s. This has been mentioned a ton of times, but my death should clear more things up. First of all, I don’t believe that early game the mafia would be coordinated enough to campaign against one person or another, and as I’ve said, L can be a mixed blessing for the town. Everyone’s said that there are probably mafia on the L list, but then again, I think there are probably mafia on every list, so that’s no big news.

L(7)
tree.hugger - Germany, Town
Versatile
Abenson
Fishball
RebirthofLegend - Mexico, Town
~Opz~
d3_crescentia

RoL flipped green, and I soon to do the same. That leaves five people remaining. We can divide these into two groups: the Masons, and the Non-Masons. Here’s one:

Masons:
~OpZ~
Abenson

Now the important question is; do we believe in the ~OpZ~ and Abenson’s story? Here’s the post in question:
On March 25 2010 06:15 ~OpZ~ wrote:
## I Change my vote to JohnnySpazz

Abenson should be confirmed soon enough. I'll RC, or he will in a minute. I figured I would die earlier, so I simple breadcrumbed his name into a post for him to reveal on my death.

I will not vote for a confirmed townie over someone unconfirmed. Consider I'll likely be another lynch candidate tomorrow, I might as well save you all some trouble. The post his name is in is on page sixteen.
Show nested quote +
On March 24 2010 11:57 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Good point Zona...
....
Also, we need to focus on a good lynch target. Be aware that we aren't near a lynch. Even though a few of us have been posting we need the whole towns participation. Not talking is bad for the town. Stuff like that will get you lynched and it's bad for use to not post. One liners don't help. Now please, start posting some content people.
.....
I propose Phrujbaz along with Zona. (Should he actually be modkilled right now? Has he confirmed to ace, or in the thread? Game's been up for 24 hours right?)

Whether you all want to take this as confirming him, whatever. I gave him strict instructions to only post this on my death to save himself from a town lynch. He seems to be afk a lot, and I will not support his lynch.

On March 25 2010 12:00 Abenson wrote:
I'm sorry, I have had quite a busy week...
First of all, I would like to thank ~OpZ~ for saving me back there, when I was on the chopping block. I really appreciate it but I was unable to give my thanks to you right away. I also apologize in advance of my complete uselessness in terms of aiding the town. Here is my attempt at redemption:

Note: I hereby confirm that I am indeed in a mason with ~OpZ~

I would like to point out johnnyspazz
He's been active in terms of defending L early on in the game, when we were bickering whether or not to kill him day 1
Show nested quote +
On March 24 2010 09:28 johnnyspazz wrote:
Okay, you've convinced me nemY
you're right, L contributes to the game way too much and i'm going to guess he is pro-town for now until he starts posting again
##Vote: nemY


Also, he seems to be quite intent on pushing for a lynch of random people, jumping from one person to the next
Show nested quote +
On March 25 2010 07:14 johnnyspazz wrote:
i think the people abstaining are really dumb, you're preventing the town from getting information and we need all the information we can get since there are no clues. if it's true that opz and abenson both know each other's roles and shit, then abenson needs to confirm that in the thread so the suspicion is no longer on them.
we can have them both RC each other in the thread so that if one of them dies, atleast we know that the other one is also telling the truth since the majority of the votes are on them.


This is after ~OpZ~ saved my ass and managed to convince many that I am town.
Show nested quote +
On March 25 2010 07:23 johnnyspazz wrote:
okay if you guys think lynching either abenson or opz is bad, then who else should we vote for? i'm willing to consider someone else


It should also be noted that he voted for me, L, RoL, nemy off the top of my head.

JSpazz's post count has been near the middle. He may be active, but he hasn't posted anything that I would count as extremely helpful. The only thing he has posted is his opinion on the matter and nothing analytic.

Conclusion: Like ~OpZ~, I am hereby suggesting JSpazz as a lynch victim.

P.S. I know that many of you don't have a good impression of me, but I believe that by now, thanks to ~OpZ~, you believe I am at least pro-town. Therefore I would like to request that you do not waste lynches on me and I will attempt to improve as a mafia player on overall.


It’s neat stuff, and unlikely to have been dreamed up on the spot. Coupled with ~OpZ~’s rather punch drunk posting since he nuked me, I’m decently convinced that ~OpZ~, and by extension Abenson are town-aligned. And if they aren’t, then they probably deserve to win for that ballsy play alone. I’m slightly suspicious of two things, the fact that ~OpZ~ was the first to suggest Japan revealing themselves, and the curious way in which ~OpZ` claimed to be masons, he kind of did it subtly, not exactly a ’stop the presses’ role claim for something so urgent. Does it mean anything? Probably not.

So let’s look at the second sub-list:

Non-masons:
Versatile
Fishball
d3_crescentia

This seems to me like more fertile ground. I’d expect to find at least one mafia among these two, but possibly two. Versatile was the first vote for L, followed by Fishball, and then d3

On March 25 2010 01:06 d3_crescentia wrote:
Lunchtiem. Don't really feel too strongly for anyone right now, though I'd rather vote L than Abenson, because L could dick over the town way harder. Abenson, well, doesn't really *do* anything so we can lynch him anytime.

##vote L

This really doesn’t make sense, it doesn’t argue to strenuously in any particular direction. D3 has been another poster who has seemingly done little to contribute, and has avoided the limelight substantially. I have my suspicions here.

I don’t think Versatile’s mafia either, although I’m not entirely sure about this. As we all know, Versatile kind of jumped off the deep end to get L out of the game, yet has always remained consistent in disagreeing with L, and took a hugely dangerous move in launching the nuke. Also, her list is similar to mine.
On March 24 2010 05:28 Versatile wrote:
and if L is banned anyway, why not kill him? i don't think we have any better targets as it is day 1 and it's hard to determine who is an illogical idiot vs. who's mafia parading around as an idiot.

further, i bet if anyone else was in L's position, he'd probably be advocating for their death. it's a course of action that makes sense.

##i vote L unless another someone else does something incredibly stupid.


Fishball has hardly ever contributed either, and I really can’t flag any single post of his one way or another.

Finally, the two other columns merit some scrutiny.
~Opz~(4)
Xelin
Nikon
Elemenope
iNfuNdiBuLuM


Abenson(7)
Iaaan
Zona
haster27
johnnyspazz - USA, Town
JeeJee
meeple
Amber[LighT]

I think we can draw two, possibly three mafia out of these two columns. My favorite candidates among them are meeple and Nikon, because both have a habit of checking in occasionally and making extraordinarily useless posts. Consider:
On March 28 2010 00:27 meeple wrote:
Jesus on the crapper... So didn't johnnyspazz claim to have anti-nuke power, and yet he didn't save himself or anyone else? Am I missing something here?

Nuking each other to bits isn't getting us anywhere and in fact,its totally ripping apart the town.

Show nested quote +
On March 27 2010 23:16 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Have we gotten any real posts of opinions from amber or d3_crescentia?

Also, if you have an anti-nuke PLEASE god save L again. Look this is retarded to argue he's mafia. And when he pops green EVERY SINGLE PERSON who has pointed their finger at him will have a problem: To explain why they wanted him dead so hard before he had gotten back from his ban.

Inactivity?! L as BM has said, L has made more posts than most people in this thread, and HE WAS GONE FOR 48 HOURS! Oh, and the difference between L's posts and most other peoples posts? HIS ARE NOT DEVOID OF CONTENT.

Points for saving L
-most likely green (he was getting bussed for being inactive, rofl)
-has posted plenty of useful information, and probably outed a mafia or two already


Also, where has Zona gone?!?!?


Amber and d3 catch my attention only in that they're kinda staying out of the fray of this whole mess...

Saving L all depends on how many anti-nukes we have. I'm certain that there are way more anti-nukes than nukes in this game so its critical we save a couple. This is only the first day. If you have a good stockpile, then go ahead... well actually I'll probably support it in any case but it might just hinder us a bit later on.

A post which makes a lot of sense if meeple is mafia. I think d3 is suspicious as well, meeple addresses ~OpZ~’s claim, and dilutes it by adding another name, and then spending only one sentence on it. Followed by this:
On March 28 2010 01:53 meeple wrote:
Was tree.hugger really high on the lynch list? I know he nuked without town consensus but technically the nuke got shot down.

As for lynching Versatile... well it's pretty obvious she's being fairly anti-town and just doing whatever the hell she wants to do... so I'd agree with lynching but I still have the same twinges of regret since we're not really any closer to bagging us some mafia.

Which also doesn’t help, and has some token words about catching mafia thrown in.

Meeple’s been good about staying out of the picture and swooping in to defend when necessary.

On March 29 2010 20:23 Nikon wrote:
Wow, the day might end soon! Translation: Finally I get to kill someone!

Just so we're clear: First I get this:

Show nested quote +
On March 28 2010 23:12 Zona wrote:
Post your plans, comments on plans, who you're suspicious of, what actions seem anti-town, etc. Plus posting isn't just to add to the discussion, but to allow the town to get a read on YOU. If you don't give us anything to work with, lurker scum can use you as someone to hide among. If you're town, that is.


And then there's

Show nested quote +
On March 29 2010 00:06 Zona wrote:
We have 3 nuke-initiators. If we get no further information I'm comfortable lynching any among them. But we haven't even hit the first night yet, why don't we at least wait to see what information surfaces before we talk about an event that's far in the future?


You're directly disagreeing with yourself. Based on this and how you've omitted various pieces of information in your nice big posts, I'd say that you're red.

The question is... what should I do with you. Translation: Night kill? Hmmm….

So this also makes no sense, comes at a terrible time and throws out a random accusation that Nikon clearly does not expect to be taken seriously. I’m suspicious.

***

So in conclusion, here’s a list of people who look suspicious, simply based on their day 1 activity and their initial lynch votes. ~OpZ~, when you say this isn’t a typical Day 1 situation, you’re right, and you’re wrong. Obviously we’ve gotten a ton of posts in ‘one day’ but we’ve also only had one town vote, and town votes are very important to try and see which patterns keep cropping up.

I’ve taken the first town vote, and tried to apply it to normal mafia behavior. I suspect that at least one of the more active posters on the thread is also mafia, although I have less theories as to who that might be. LMNOP strikes me as being the perfect combination of activity, while not having an alibi (~OpZ~) and not quite being as helpful as Zona. But LMNOP has been very pro-town.

One point that I can’t remember atm; did Sweden ever come forward and take responsibility for shooting down LMNOP’s nuke?

***

Here’s what I think should be done: Lynch Nikon. He’s on quite a few lists, and was an early voter for ~OpZ~. If Nikon flips mafia, we can assume with a higher degree of certainty that ~OpZ~ is just stupid, and not mafia. Abenson is also shown to be town-aligned by this.

If Nikon flips green, it doesn’t mean that I’m totally wrong, but it also might mean that I’m totally wrong. Take everything I’ve written here with a grain of salt, I’m not often right.

Good luck town.

My list:
NemY
D3
Meeple
Nikon

And a few others for good measure:
LMNOP
Amber
INfuNdiBuLuM
ModeratorEffOrt, Snow, GuMiho, and Team Liquid
Zona
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
40426 Posts
March 29 2010 15:43 GMT
#1337
I promised Ace I'd play to win...but this is getting ridiculous. We have started shooting each other a lot like the town in Caller's game. Well, with the bonus of each daykill dragging out fo 24 hours.

On March 29 2010 20:23 Nikon wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 28 2010 23:12 Zona wrote:
Post your plans, comments on plans, who you're suspicious of, what actions seem anti-town, etc. Plus posting isn't just to add to the discussion, but to allow the town to get a read on YOU. If you don't give us anything to work with, lurker scum can use you as someone to hide among. If you're town, that is.


And then there's

Show nested quote +
On March 29 2010 00:06 Zona wrote:
We have 3 nuke-initiators. If we get no further information I'm comfortable lynching any among them. But we haven't even hit the first night yet, why don't we at least wait to see what information surfaces before we talk about an event that's far in the future?


You're directly disagreeing with yourself. Based on this and how you've omitted various pieces of information in your nice big posts, I'd say that you're red.

This is not a disagreement. First part, I want you (and other inactives) to post something useful. Now you're posting at least a tiny bit more, good. It would have been nice if you had posted more before you were called out.

Second part, I'm responding to those who already saying "we should lynch player x next, we should nuke player y next" - I'm saying we don't need to fully need to commit to lynching a certain person right now when there's at least 72 hours more until the next lynch.

In any case, unless a person posting a lot constantly repeats the same damn thing and doesn't take into account what everyone else is posting, it's likely you'll be able to find some change in opinion.

Also - feel free to tell me what information I'm omitting, rather than make such a statement without providing any accompanying any evidence.

And it's interesting you immediately call me red for such trivial reasons. When have any of my proposals not been in the interests of the town? When others have pointed out flaws in them, they have been modified. The real scummy plans are those that involve launching nukes early. Like I've said time and time again, these early nukes have such high chance of hitting town. And it's not just me saying this is likely theoretically. We know RoL is town. Who did his nuke hit? Johnnyspazz, town. The real problem is that even Opz, with the best townie claim so far in the game, is supporting plans that hurt the town.

If I were mafia I'd be sitting back silently and cackling as the town kills other town members for me, not raging at the incompetence of my fellow town members.
"If you try responding to those absurd posts every day, you become more damaged. So I pay no attention to them at all." Jung Myung Hoon (aka Fantasy), as translated by Kimoleon
Zona
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
40426 Posts
March 29 2010 15:52 GMT
#1338
On March 29 2010 23:22 ~OpZ~ wrote:
AGAIN, you've argued to save anti-nukes for late game. So your argument makes no sense why wouldn't we want to increase the ToD. If it's the town launching the nukes at ONE player, then the MAFIA can't nuke anyway.

You're making a unjustified leap in logic. Saving anti-nukes automatically lead to the conclusion that raising radiation is useful. Two separate issues. As an additional argument against increasing radiation, raised radiation also removes the option of nukes from town, later on. Have you been sleeping the entire time I've argued that town-directed kills get stronger LATER in the game? You're still itching to nuke more on day 1.

And what if it's the town launching 3 to 6 nukes at this one player, who happens to have a bunch of nukes of his own, that he fires back?


I really don't care anymore. Why do you guys bother discussing such things with the town when you clearly don't care what the rest of the town thinks and will nuke anyways?
"If you try responding to those absurd posts every day, you become more damaged. So I pay no attention to them at all." Jung Myung Hoon (aka Fantasy), as translated by Kimoleon
Zona
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
40426 Posts
March 29 2010 16:08 GMT
#1339
On March 30 2010 00:52 Zona wrote:
You're making a unjustified leap in logic. Saving anti-nukes automatically lead to the conclusion that raising radiation is useful.

Yikes. Missed two words which totally changed the meaning. Saving anti-nukes does not automatically lead to the conclusion that raising radiation is useful.
"If you try responding to those absurd posts every day, you become more damaged. So I pay no attention to them at all." Jung Myung Hoon (aka Fantasy), as translated by Kimoleon
~OpZ~
Profile Blog Joined May 2005
United States3652 Posts
March 29 2010 16:31 GMT
#1340
Amber was actually the first to vote for L tree.Hugger
Maybe I could teach Osama that using a plane as a wraith or dropship would be 10x better than using it as a scourge..... ^^; -Flex
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