TL Mafia XX - Page 60

On March 17 2010 16:11 Bill Murray wrote:

BloodyC0bbler Votes: 8
Vivi57
tree.hugger
Incognito
Zona
Fulgrim
Iaaan
johnnyspazz
CynanMachae

Incognito Votes: 7
Versatile
Abenson
XeliN
Fishball
madnessman
JeeJee
Bill Murray

It is a critical point of the game. I am trying to help you all. You can drastically improve your chances with 4/17 or 3/17. You have a 0% chance of 3/17 if you lynch me. I am a town member. I hope the town can finally see that since I am trying to be helpful, and to want what is best and good for this town. I'd love to win.

If I was looking for a red, I would definitely be looking at where people voted, posts someone has made, and where the person was aligned. To me, it looks like it would be someone who was voting for L. The fact that L claims that mafia won't vote to try to get someone into office, and was generally mad about losing the election in which he really wanted pardoner while scummily claiming he wanted to be mayor. L was the true mayoral candidate, and tries to clear his name forcing Malongo to die since L posted right after Malongo's candidacy that he was probably the Mafia candidate. He would be cleared of the format, and made into Godfather by his team where he was the only veteran. L would then proceed to pick Mad Hatter because it is only accounted for posthumously. Malongo could say that the epic Chilean Earthquake devastated his IP and voila he would at most have a 1 game ban if any at all depending on the host.
L then goes on to say RC me, Bus me, Focus on me I'm clean, and would have been saying "I pardon my red buddies." If I hadn't been a thorn in his side for that one, too. Glad that wasn't a vivi 2.0. By confusing the people in office and bein the one privately pming them whispering in their ears like wormtongue he can abuse them into doing what he wants them to do. He is being very manipulative having you all kill a person who is trying to help the town win moreso than any other player!!!!!!! Don't let him manipulate you. Be strong. He's wanted to kill me all game people!
The Mafia will try to hide my post, trust me, this will get spammed to death if not tonight, before everyone wakes up. L is over 5% likely to be mafia, (1/18) and I am 0%. This is the only knowledge I have to impart to you all. I understand that you all believe that people say this no matter what their color, but I am seriously not a liar. I have been blue once, and I roleclaimed detective day 1 in a pm... maybe night 1... yeah. lol. I don't know what I'd do as red, because i haven't been blessed with being red yet.

I say let's lynch L, see if I blow up, and then if he's red and we improve by 6% vs 4/17 (3/17), awesome. If he's really the mad hatter, we see fireworks, more awesome.

I am open to other targets, but he really does have a strong case against himself.

In my own opinion I have improved at this in general the more games I've played, not actually been great at catching mafia, quite the reverse, but have been good at identifying town just on the way they post.

If you thought it was a bad idea THEN SAY SO, don't bring it up at a late point in the game as a reason to lynch me.

At the time he was someone I was considering as well but apart from his runnning for mayor and going inactive there was little else to suggest his being mafia so I wanted you to provide your reasons.

BC, L, Incognito possibilities:

1. All are town. Great stuff.

2. All are red. Highly unlikely. The 2nd DT story must be true, otherwise it’s both unnecessary and very risky (remember, in this scenario we’re assuming BC is red, so that would make 2 “fake” DTs, which would look incredibly suspect to the real DT, who would call them out at some point). Given then that the 2nd DT story is likely true, and they checked sidersprang/L, then L must be GF if red at all. However, it seems unlikely he would choose GF over BC in this case, I just don't see it.

So while remotely possible, it seems extremely unlikely all 3 are red. Finally, if all 3 are red and were contacted by this 2nd DT, the DT would be dead by now. The “other DT’s” blind faith in Incognito is still bothersome, but it would help explain why he chose sidersprang too, using Incognito’s (bad-idea) DT check-list.

3. Two are red, 3rd one is not.
3a. In + BC are red, L is blue. I don’t see this as a possibility: L would know they were wrong about his role (unless they guessed right – highly unlikely).
3b. L + BC are red, In is not. Again, highly unlikely, BC can’t pass night 2 test from In unless he is implausibly lucky.
3c. L + In are red but BC is not. Could happen, but would require L to be GF to pass DT checks.

4. One is red, others are not.
BC can’t be red if the other two are not – he’d have to get hugely lucky on both nights.
If L is red and the others are not, he’d have to be GF.
In could obviously be anything-aligned.

Conclusions:

BC is very likely blue as claimed, in all scenarios. The only shadow of doubt is in the “all red” scenario, which seems extremely unlikely as explained above.

L may be red under scenarios 4 anc 3c, and would have to be GF in both cases. Given the timing of his initial soft-roleclaim this seems unlikely, but perhaps exercise some caution for another night.

Incognito could obviously be anything-aligned, but given the “other DT” is most likely real and still alive, he’s looking pretty blue now as well.

On March 18 2010 00:48 Bill Murray wrote:






Malongo admits he won't be getting any votes. If he knew he wasn't going to be getting any votes, and was admitting that there could be 2 mafia candidates out of 4, I have to believe that the real reason he was running was to hide the candidacy of the Godfather, and clear their name. It would be easy to do this through sacrificing himself, which he says in his post that he doesn't mind doing. He is an old veteran, and a lot of veterans have learned that they can get more out of sacrificing theirself with a cool play than staying alive and being wasteful. I feel like this is what he was doing. In this format, he can just say that there's simply no way that the mafia will run 2 candidates. I'm fairly certain he has even said this.



Two people trying to make it look as if they have reason to support someone who has had the only red voting for them. They are hopping on the bandwagon blindly... pretty scummy behavior.

IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO LOOK AT THEIR VOTING PATTERN
Neither one of them voted to lynch Malongo AT ANY TIME.

One of them voted for Abenson, and one of them voted for ~OpZ~.







Also, how did he know that l10f was going to respond? It's like they have been in on it together. Both of these posts above have been back to back posts, and I feel like they are incriminating even if they do not appear to be so on the outside. I feel as if these two are acting way too buddy-buddy with one another to merit their being green. I feel like they are aligned together on a red team. MadnessMan was horror stricken whenever L didn't get pardoner. Both voted for L with Malongo.

On March 18 2010 02:06 Bill Murray wrote:
Also, there's no way in hell anyone can know Incognito's alignment. He doesn't even know it himself. He's neutral. He could be like the secret nazi, he could be town aligned, or he could be mafia aligned. There's really no way that anyone can know this.