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On February 16 2010 13:32 Chezinu wrote:
Okay, here is the plan.
1. medics on me of course, because I'm special
2. godfathers disguised as medic should protect me as well.
3. Mafia hit the other mafia so that if they go for me, you will be in the lead.
4. Why would you waste any hits on me?
5. Mad hatters, you guys shouldn't put bombs on me - It would kill our medics.
6. To the mafia team I sided with, please send me your hit list.
7. redtooth please give me the bodyguard information, because I'm special.
8. L please pardon my annoying behavior.
9, That is all.
lol @ 6
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On February 16 2010 13:31 d3_crescentia wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 13:23 789 wrote:On February 16 2010 13:17 Malongo wrote:On February 16 2010 13:12 789 wrote:On February 16 2010 13:03 Malongo wrote:On February 16 2010 12:54 789 wrote:
Malongo, your plan hinges on everyone going along with it and honestly participating. I mean say redtooth goes along with it ... why would a mafia family sacrifice a hit that may be blocked. Or say in the case that redtooth actually is a medic (yeah no, but let's just say) and BOTH mafia families hit you. It makes redtooth look like a lier. In a perfect world it is a good idea ... but it won't work in a practical application. A Supposing a mafia family suspects redtooth is mafia the will asap hit me to clear him. Its 3 votes + a protected role. They only lose a hit and prove redtooth, wich is useless because bg list is more likely infiltrated. Believe me the other family is liking his chops at this idea. B If hits stack¿ lol if hits stack i die and nothing else happens, redtooth isnt cleared and we have more gamble beetween families. Why wont work¿ i still dont see how can be bad for the town. Worst case scenario: mafia doesnt hit me and redtooth loses a protection that cant be directed to a town townie anyways. We have absolutely nothing to lose. I still don't see why the mafia would be licking their chops to cooperate. If they wanted to get rid of him they could act like townies and get him lynched. Why would they take a path that potentially wastes a hit and could potentially help the town greatly by giving them a trusted person to organize behind. Sure they know who a medic is if they want to target him - but I would think at least one of the BGs is still town aligned and he'd be protected. If they want to take him out there are other lower risk ways to do it and they wouldn't want to clear him. Mafia has to kill the other mafia to win. Having a guy that is likely to be part of one of the mafias in the mayor spot is clearly a big disadvantage to start with. Sure RT *may* prove himself. Then what¿ trusted BG list¿ he asks all the blues to pm him¿ he asks everyplayer to pm him his role¿ with 20 mafia in the game¿ Think about that for a minute. You bypassed my main point. Why would one of the mafia families risk a hit or helping the town when they could attempt a lynch play to take down redtooth. Because the point isn't to lynch redtooth. Redtooth flipping red/blue will give both the town AND the mafia some information - information they wouldn't be able to get by slogging through another 48 hours of day posts attempting to convince people otherwise.
I know the point of the plan isn't to lynch redtooth. My point is why would the mafia agree to this plan when they could attempt a lynch play. Basically .. the mafia has no reason to go along with it.
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On February 16 2010 13:34 Fulgrim wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 13:32 Chezinu wrote:
Okay, here is the plan.
1. medics on me of course, because I'm special
2. godfathers disguised as medic should protect me as well.
3. Mafia hit the other mafia so that if they go for me, you will be in the lead.
4. Why would you waste any hits on me?
5. Mad hatters, you guys shouldn't put bombs on me - It would kill our medics.
6. To the mafia team I sided with, please send me your hit list.
7. redtooth please give me the bodyguard information, because I'm special.
8. L please pardon my annoying behavior.
9, That is all. lol @ 6
NO ONE CARES!!! except me, I really do..
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On February 16 2010 13:35 789 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 13:31 d3_crescentia wrote:On February 16 2010 13:23 789 wrote:On February 16 2010 13:17 Malongo wrote:On February 16 2010 13:12 789 wrote:On February 16 2010 13:03 Malongo wrote:On February 16 2010 12:54 789 wrote:
Malongo, your plan hinges on everyone going along with it and honestly participating. I mean say redtooth goes along with it ... why would a mafia family sacrifice a hit that may be blocked. Or say in the case that redtooth actually is a medic (yeah no, but let's just say) and BOTH mafia families hit you. It makes redtooth look like a lier. In a perfect world it is a good idea ... but it won't work in a practical application. A Supposing a mafia family suspects redtooth is mafia the will asap hit me to clear him. Its 3 votes + a protected role. They only lose a hit and prove redtooth, wich is useless because bg list is more likely infiltrated. Believe me the other family is liking his chops at this idea. B If hits stack¿ lol if hits stack i die and nothing else happens, redtooth isnt cleared and we have more gamble beetween families. Why wont work¿ i still dont see how can be bad for the town. Worst case scenario: mafia doesnt hit me and redtooth loses a protection that cant be directed to a town townie anyways. We have absolutely nothing to lose. I still don't see why the mafia would be licking their chops to cooperate. If they wanted to get rid of him they could act like townies and get him lynched. Why would they take a path that potentially wastes a hit and could potentially help the town greatly by giving them a trusted person to organize behind. Sure they know who a medic is if they want to target him - but I would think at least one of the BGs is still town aligned and he'd be protected. If they want to take him out there are other lower risk ways to do it and they wouldn't want to clear him. Mafia has to kill the other mafia to win. Having a guy that is likely to be part of one of the mafias in the mayor spot is clearly a big disadvantage to start with. Sure RT *may* prove himself. Then what¿ trusted BG list¿ he asks all the blues to pm him¿ he asks everyplayer to pm him his role¿ with 20 mafia in the game¿ Think about that for a minute. You bypassed my main point. Why would one of the mafia families risk a hit or helping the town when they could attempt a lynch play to take down redtooth. Because the point isn't to lynch redtooth. Redtooth flipping red/blue will give both the town AND the mafia some information - information they wouldn't be able to get by slogging through another 48 hours of day posts attempting to convince people otherwise. I know the point of the plan isn't to lynch redtooth. My point is why would the mafia agree to this plan when they could attempt a lynch play. Basically .. the mafia has no reason to go along with it.
And again if mafia doesnt cooperate what does the town lose¿ lets say this does nothing: where is the big lose for the town¿
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On February 16 2010 13:38 Malongo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 13:35 789 wrote:On February 16 2010 13:31 d3_crescentia wrote:On February 16 2010 13:23 789 wrote:On February 16 2010 13:17 Malongo wrote:On February 16 2010 13:12 789 wrote:On February 16 2010 13:03 Malongo wrote:On February 16 2010 12:54 789 wrote:
Malongo, your plan hinges on everyone going along with it and honestly participating. I mean say redtooth goes along with it ... why would a mafia family sacrifice a hit that may be blocked. Or say in the case that redtooth actually is a medic (yeah no, but let's just say) and BOTH mafia families hit you. It makes redtooth look like a lier. In a perfect world it is a good idea ... but it won't work in a practical application. A Supposing a mafia family suspects redtooth is mafia the will asap hit me to clear him. Its 3 votes + a protected role. They only lose a hit and prove redtooth, wich is useless because bg list is more likely infiltrated. Believe me the other family is liking his chops at this idea. B If hits stack¿ lol if hits stack i die and nothing else happens, redtooth isnt cleared and we have more gamble beetween families. Why wont work¿ i still dont see how can be bad for the town. Worst case scenario: mafia doesnt hit me and redtooth loses a protection that cant be directed to a town townie anyways. We have absolutely nothing to lose. I still don't see why the mafia would be licking their chops to cooperate. If they wanted to get rid of him they could act like townies and get him lynched. Why would they take a path that potentially wastes a hit and could potentially help the town greatly by giving them a trusted person to organize behind. Sure they know who a medic is if they want to target him - but I would think at least one of the BGs is still town aligned and he'd be protected. If they want to take him out there are other lower risk ways to do it and they wouldn't want to clear him. Mafia has to kill the other mafia to win. Having a guy that is likely to be part of one of the mafias in the mayor spot is clearly a big disadvantage to start with. Sure RT *may* prove himself. Then what¿ trusted BG list¿ he asks all the blues to pm him¿ he asks everyplayer to pm him his role¿ with 20 mafia in the game¿ Think about that for a minute. You bypassed my main point. Why would one of the mafia families risk a hit or helping the town when they could attempt a lynch play to take down redtooth. Because the point isn't to lynch redtooth. Redtooth flipping red/blue will give both the town AND the mafia some information - information they wouldn't be able to get by slogging through another 48 hours of day posts attempting to convince people otherwise. I know the point of the plan isn't to lynch redtooth. My point is why would the mafia agree to this plan when they could attempt a lynch play. Basically .. the mafia has no reason to go along with it. And again if mafia doesnt cooperate what does the town lose¿ lets say this does nothing: where is the big lose for the town¿
I never said don't do it. I'm just warning you that no matter what happens you'll have difficulties interpreting what it actually means. For every result there is at least 1 alternate scenario that clouds what the results actually mean. Sure the town has nothing to lose ... but in the end you'll end up with a result that you're not sure what it even means.
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On February 16 2010 13:26 L wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 13:18 Incognito wrote:Cheating includes (but is not limited to) the following and will get you banned from future games:
...
6. Posting any PM you receive from a host. I had to counter post after he posted. I am innocent. Also, please don't ask people to pardon people who haven't been picked as lynch targets :/.
You did not have to counter post. Both posts are unacceptable. Please do not post pms from a host under any circumstances.
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On February 16 2010 13:24 Iaaan wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 13:16 madnessman wrote:On February 16 2010 12:41 Malongo wrote:On February 16 2010 12:36 d3_crescentia wrote:On February 16 2010 12:32 Malongo wrote:On February 16 2010 09:50 Ace wrote:
My vote was on redtooth. He claimed Medic. Thats why I took it away. Then I thought about his motive for lying at that point in time and it really didn't matter because Ver wasn't here anyway. So me switching my vote back within a few minutes changed nothing. There's no suspicion there.
Maybe you should bother questioning the people that pushed him from Pardoner -> Mayor. Pardoner is more powerful than Mayor anyway. I disagree here Ace. From mafia pov its direct that knowing all the bgs-> confirmed townies or at least few chances of mafia from the other family + 3 votes is huge. Think about this: this game is more likely to go until 20 players remain unless one family is absolutely demolishing the other. In this case having a mafia having 3 votes and clearing up the targets with the bgs list is lot better than 2 pardons overall. Having a mafia mayor is a huge advantage against the other mafia, having a pardoner *may* save one of your foes but its not like the other mafia cant target him anyways next night. As you see pardoner <<<< mayor for a mafia player. So the point is, what is redtooth going to do about his claim¿ The best way to set this up is : Redtooth self claimed medic declares his target for protection before the night. This way the other family /assuming redtooth is mafia/ has the chance to hit that target and unreveal redtooth. It is win for that family because then they force the town to lynch him if he turns nonmedic, and it is win for that family in case the target survives because they can play knowing that redtooth is not in the other mafia. Thoughts¿ Problem with this is if the declared target is in the same family as those that'll be targeting him - unless they're willing to sacrifice him. Ok. Then we force redtooth to protect a target from the town: me. As you see i cant not be in Redtooths family /if im mafia and so is him/ because that would be stupid. I cant be on the others family IM ASKING TO GET HIT and protected. What about that¿ if redtooth claims protection on me and he should be because that way he can prove himself then i will live. /unless there are stacked hits on me wish will be noted in the number of deaths/ If i die redtooth is mafia. THOUGHTS¿¿¿¿ There are many many flaws to this plan. HOWEVER I do believe it will work *IF* the mafia team that does not have Malongo or redtooth on their roster were to hit Malongo tonight, and none of the medics (aside from redtooth obviously) protects him! Reason why: Let's say 1. redtooth is MAFIA A and Malongo is TOWNIE - Mafia A doesn't hit Malongo. Mafia B hits Malongo. Malongo dies. We know that redtooth is not actually a medic and a member of Mafia A! -> this info = good for both Mafia B and the town, bad for Mafia A 2. redtooth is a MEDIC and Malongo is MAFIA A - Mafia A doesn't hit Malongo. Mafia B hits Malongo. redtooth saves Malongo. Mafia B now knows that redtooth is actually a medic and NOT a member of Mafia A! -> this info = good for Mafia B (Town remains ignorant as it has no way of knowing for certain that a hit was placed on Malongo.) 3. redtooth is MAFIA A and Malongo are MAFIA A - Mafia A doesn't hit Malongo. Mafia B hits Malongo. Malongo dies. We now know redtooth is not actually a medic and a member of Mafia A! -> this info = good for both Mafia B and the town, bad for Mafia A 4. redtooth is a MEDIC and Malongo is TOWNIE - Mafia A hits Malongo. Mafia B hits Malongo. redtooth saves Malongo. But because he got 2 hits does he die??? Ok, so DISREGARDING SCENERIO 4 because I'm unsure what happens in that case, if you are on a mafia team and redtooth is NOT on your roster... placing a hit on Malongo will benefit you regardless of whether he dies/does not die. (you'll have info on whether the mayor is on the opposite mafia team or is an actual medic.) and 2/3 of the proposed scenarios will benefit the town as well. Think about it mafia people ;D On a sidenote, in the case of scenerio 4, let's say malongo were to be saved despite having 2 hits (1 from each mafia team). then it really wouldn't matter since both mafia teams will still be on equal ground since they both used a hit on malongo. 5/6. Redtooth and Malongo are medic/townie, and either 1 mafia hits malongo, or neither mafia do.
That's scenario #4. These are outcomes of the scenario providing that the mafia team that does not have redtooth on their roster DEFINITELY places a hit on malongo.
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Interesting turn of events with the election. Although I do think L being in office is a decent pick.Thats because I am inclined to believe he is green for the following reasons:
1: In general people who come out with large clue analysis posts in the beginning of the game are more likely to be pro town. This is because they are eager to play and help the town and so generally find it easier to write longer clue analysis posts (in the beginning of the game), as they are not burdened by the additional knowledge that a mafioso has nor have they the need to wait to communicate with the other scum to form a plan prior to posting.
2: The voting pattern. Firstly it didnt seem very chaotic to me, in the sense that it was a gradual build up without any sudden random transfers (although do correct me if I am wrong here since I cant be bothered to go through the pages again). Secondly and more importantly look at the people who have voted for him. These include three of the most active posters in the game so far - laaan, DoctorHelvetica and redtooth. This leads me to believe that he is unlikely to be a mafia candidate because if he was supported by other reds this would leave far too large a paper trail than they would like.
Im not so sure what to think of redtooth but his medic roleclaim, which I believe he used to get more votes than Ver, but I am certain it was a strategy of some sort. It could either be a green survival strategy (i.e. makes the town less likely to lynch him because he is blue, but at the same time one of the more unimportant blue roles right now, with mafia KPs being high, so that he would not be killed) or a red gamble (i.e. if he knew he was going to be in office because the mafia planned to support him straight after his "roleclaim" he could use this as a strategy to conceal the sudden influx of votes, by making people think that votes are coming in for him because he claimed an important role, when in fact its an elaborate cover for his red buddies). Either way, whats important to take away from this is that he had an incentive to claim as he did, it was not accidental. Therefore until that incentive becomes clear high suspicion levels are warranted imo.
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On a different note, Xelin how come you're not posting so much this game?
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Everyone make sure you vote in the voting thread about malongo's plan, maybe we will get some honest responses. Although I wish I hadn't put the Ace response, I meant it as a joke I didn't know people would actually vote for it lol
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On February 16 2010 12:32 Malongo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 09:50 Ace wrote:
My vote was on redtooth. He claimed Medic. Thats why I took it away. Then I thought about his motive for lying at that point in time and it really didn't matter because Ver wasn't here anyway. So me switching my vote back within a few minutes changed nothing. There's no suspicion there.
Maybe you should bother questioning the people that pushed him from Pardoner -> Mayor. Pardoner is more powerful than Mayor anyway. I disagree here Ace. From mafia pov its direct that knowing all the bgs-> confirmed townies or at least few chances of mafia from the other family + 3 votes is huge. Think about this: this game is more likely to go until 20 players remain unless one family is absolutely demolishing the other. In this case having a mafia having 3 votes and clearing up the targets with the bgs list is lot better than 2 pardons overall. Having a mafia mayor is a huge advantage against the other mafia, having a pardoner *may* save one of your foes but its not like the other mafia cant target him anyways next night. As you see pardoner <<<< mayor for a mafia player.
Being that redtooth doesn't have a large group of support being Mayor isn't that great even with 3 votes. Pardoner on the other hand saves your faam from a lynch and forces the other Mafia to have to hit the guy. Who knows what the Pardoner can convince the town about his fellow scum in that time frame. That's a sweet trade. The only way I'd say Mafia Mayor > Pardoner is IF they have BGs they never have to reveal and that don't get killed. Otherwise there's no power play there imo. Either way I'm glad he got it over L. Yay.
So the point is, what is redtooth going to do about his claim¿ The best way to set this up is : Redtooth self claimed medic declares his target for protection before the night. This way the other family /assuming redtooth is mafia/ has the chance to hit that target and unreveal redtooth. It is win for that family because then they force the town to lynch him if he turns nonmedic, and it is win for that family in case the target survives because they can play knowing that redtooth is not in the other mafia.
Thoughts¿
This scenario dies under 2 conditions:
1.) You need to know that the target is going to get HIT in the first place, not protected by Medics and isn't a Veteran.
If the player gets hit, we need to know which of these conditions was satisfied. Then you have to verify the guy that got hit is pro-town since he'd have no incentive to lie.
2.) Target gets dbl tapped.
If this happens and Redtooth is indeed a Medic he'd look guilty. We'd have no idea if the person he protected was hit by multiple people. In fact knowing the idea is to confirm Redtooth via this way why wouldn't they want to stack the hit, or take the chance the other family sends the hit too?
It's not an easy thing to confirm him without Vigilantes since our evidence comes from scum who I'm sure don't want to help us in any way.
Also the possible loss for the town is a waste of protection if he is legit. If he isn't oh well, let's lynch him!
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that can stand for abstaining
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So like I said, top Mafia suspect for now is L.
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On February 16 2010 14:14 Ace wrote:
So like I said, top Mafia suspect for now is L.
Did you actually read the full idea. Please read again the thread ive spammed a lot of posts.
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can you give me the revised idea then? I'd like to hear it once so I don't read it and make any mistakes ^_^
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Mafias need medics in case they get down to a critical number of members, and the other mafia is threatening victory, then they need medics to survive with town protection.
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On February 16 2010 14:18 Ace wrote:
can you give me the revised idea then? I'd like to hear it once so I don't read it and make any mistakes ^_^
OMG here I go.
I think RT is mafia. I ask him to publically protect me this night because i know and declare im green townie.
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Ok but what will that do? If you don't get hit that doesn't prove anything about either of you.
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So im going to be "protected".
-I say mafia A where RT doesnt belong in case he is mafia has a good trade on hitting me because they kill me /yay RT mafia B/ and force the town to lynch a mafia mayor.
-If im protected and live well RT is nonmafia B: this is not that bad for mafia A because they traded a trusted citizen for the town for the fact that the mayor is not playing for mafia B. This also may look like too good for the town but come on bg list is rigged and there are 20 mafias in play. One trusted citizen is almost nothing because RT cant trust anyone anyway.
-If Mafia A doesnt like my trade well we lose a protection yay! an unassured protection anyways.
Note that with all this whatever the outcome i CANT be the same mafia than RT /that would be stupid/ nor can i be the other mafia because that would be stupid too. So if RT mafia => im green wich is useless because im going to be dead.
If RT is non mafia and im mafia. Well im doing some stupid play here because im taunting a medic to protect me a clear himself for the town or to die myself.
If we are both town at least one mafia hits me RT may be cleared if im alive or if im dead but the vote count deveals there is a missing hit. This is highly unlikely but again if this happens we lost an unsure protection first night.
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On February 16 2010 14:28 Ace wrote:
Ok but what will that do? If you don't get hit that doesn't prove anything about either of you.
And why not to do it¿ because we can lose a protection first night¿
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EPT
