TL Mafia XVIII - Page 2

On February 17 2010 09:39 Incognito wrote:
When the three Mafiosi made it to the city gate, they each decided to go in their separate directions, moving swiftly towards the houses of their victims. The first Mafioso went straight for the town center. When he finally arrived at his victim’s house, he noticed that the door had been left wide open. Cautiously, he peeked in the window, noticing that a pot of soup was still cooking on the stove. A pencil and a few charts were also spread on the table, but the Mafioso could not notice that anything important or telling about the papers. Figuring that his victim had been alerted to his presence and had hidden all his important documents before hastily vanishing, the Mafioso tiptoed upstairs, careful not to make any noises that could alert his victim. Upon reaching the upstairs bedroom, the Mafioso noticed fresh tracks beneath the window, and jumped down, careful not to disturb the tracks. He raced through the forest, and soon found his robed target sitting by the lake. Ace felt no surprise as he turned around to greet the Mafioso. He was about to warn the Mafioso that he couldn’t hide in the darkness, when suddenly the Mafioso sprayed gasoline all over Ace and quickly lit a match. As he left the scene, Ace’s attacker muttered to himself, thinking how much fun it would be to terrorize the town not only in the darkness, but also in the light.

Meanwhile, the second Mafioso made his way all the way across town to a small apartment on the edge of the city wall. Although the road to the residence was filled with many twists and turns, the Mafioso was able to reach the apartment without too much loss of time. The Mafioso knocked on the door, waiting for a response. Nervous, Zato-1 pulled out his shotgun, ready to shoot the intruder if he proved to be a menace. But Zato-1 could not have been more prepared for what happened next. As he opened the door, he was immediately knocked down and impaled by an array of sharp objects. The intruder was nowhere to be seen, although neighbors who have walked by the now open door have noticed a hole in the wall directly behind where Zato-1 had been killed.

The third Mafioso headed toward the construction site, where workers had been trying to rush build a new town jail. From the building above, the third Mafioso noticed his target working in the guard tower across the jail courtyard. Smiling to himself, he snuck around to near the tower and took control of a crane that he had hidden nearby. Only a few of the workers noticed the large shadow blocking out the bright artificial light necessary to light the construction site. A few yelled at the workers to get out of the way, and fortunately everyone did but one. BloodyC0bbler did not notice as a miniature version of a stone sphinx came crashing down on the site, demolishing the guard tower and spraying blue blood everywhere.

“Which creature in the morning goes on four legs, at mid-day on two, and in the evening upon three, and the more legs it has, the weaker it be?”
Answer: Man—who crawls on all fours as a baby

By some accounts[5] (but much more rarely), there was a second riddle: "There are two sisters: one gives birth to the other and she, in turn, gives birth to the first." The answer is "day and night"

On the other side of town, things were no less gruesome. Contrary to the warnings of the new town leaders, Fulgrim decided to ignore safety and take a hike in the meadows nearby. But the air was dry, and Fulgrim began to sneeze. After blowing his nose and drinking some water, he decided that maybe it was time to go home. After all, it was very late at night, and he had to get up to go to work the next day. As Fulgrim headed back through the meadows, he began seeing white particles drifting through the air and began to sneeze more. Realizing that the particles were likely the cause of his recent sneezing, he decided to breathe into his sleeve and quickly get back home. But the damage had already been done. Fulgrim slowly began to feel lightheaded, and fainted as he stumbled on a tree root just feet away from the town perimeter. Unfortunately, he would never wake up again.

d3_crescentia was getting ready for bed, when he heard some strange noises outside. It seemed at first that some bickering had broken out. When he walked outside, he heard some cursing, and shouting. Puzzled, d3_crescentia went to investigate. As it turns out, the man who was being yelled at had scrawled graffiti all over the man’s house. d3_crescentia attempted to intervene, but a cold menacing glare came over the duo’s faces. Before d3_crescentia could cry for help, a pan was flung into his face, knocking his teeth into his brain. d3_crescentia died soon after from internal bleeding in the brain.

Upon examination of BloodyC0bbler’s corpse the next morning, an autopsy found a strange sight, as it appeared that BloodyC0bbler had not died from the falling sphinx, but from a metal pike that protruded out of his stomach. The whole town was filled with shock and fear as the new mayor, redtooth, read out the inscription on the pike’s handle: “We invite you to make a holy pilgrimage to the town square today to offer a human sacrifice to the gods. That is all.”

On February 17 2010 10:40 meeple wrote:
My analysis:

Killer 1: [r]Mystlord[/r]

Sorry man, too many fire and moonlight references for me to overlook this. Your posting hasn't especially been incriminating, but you're laying low similar to the last game...

Killer 4: [r]Phrujbaz[/r]

Sneezing and white things reference

Killer 5:[r]madnessman[/r]

Bickering and madness references

Dunno about the others yet

On February 17 2010 11:24 nemY wrote:
Couldn't the mafia have just hit a vet?

On February 17 2010 11:28 meeple wrote:


The gasoline does seem odd, but the dark/light reference does seem to be related to moonlight... and even if the gasoline doesn't point to you, the sharp objects in Killer 2's murder could, since the character in your profile picture seems to be throwing sharp objects.

As he left the scene, Ace’s attacker muttered to himself, thinking how much fun it would be to terrorize the town not only in the darkness, but also in the light.

On February 17 2010 11:43 redtooth wrote:
i think you guys are doing this wrong. but the key word there is think. i'm making a few key assumptions so let me list it out right now.

Assumption 1: Incognito will not give clues on one person on back-to-back day posts.
that means the fire clue for Ace's killer is not related to the two fire/flammable clues from page one (the oiled house and the thrown torch). this does not, however, mean that people with fire related profiles are any less suspicious. it just means that there is a higher chance that one of the fire clues pointed to that person.

Assumption 2: incognito has not changed the way he is doing clues
that means he takes one (read: ONE) thing about a profile and makes a persona about it. read this for more information on what said persona is and how he tends to do it. that means that finding multiple things related to a clue on a single profile does not help your argument. we can safely assume that the persona won't be something too detailed (like that song of the sphinx thingy...). it also means that there is one persona per mafia so concentrate on identifying that persona and behavior or thematic elements associated with that persona.

taking these two assumptions into mind as you go clue analyzing should drastically approach the way you guys are doing this.

On February 17 2010 12:33 Ver wrote:
The mafia most definitely did not blindly follow me; if they did Meeple and Mystlord would have died too. It's most likely:

a) Their suspicions coincided with mine on Ace and BC
b) They liked my analysis on Ace and BC and did not like it on Meeple/Mystlord
c) Mystlord/Meeple are mafia and the side(s) they weren't on simply didn't target them

Obviously the purpose of the lists was to get them killed. BC I was simply wrong about, Ace I was not sure but he was adding a lot of chaos to the town and not doing much good. Frankly the outcome of the day basically says nothing about my alignment. On the other hand, if you saw 3 reds from 1 family die and 0-1 from another, then you should start getting very suspicious.

If I was on a mafia team and I couldn't hit a single mafia or useful blue I would be uh...very ashamed haha (it's far easier knowing the identity of 9 players). Have you looked at the hitlists of games when I was mafia?

On February 18 2010 07:32 L wrote:
Ok, lol. I am back.

First off: I may have missed the mark on Empyrean and Ace, but the amount of people sitting back when I asked everyone to brainstorm was incredible. I think I had a grand total of 1 person make a coherent argument against Ace, which I accepted as substantially convincing, and cobbler argued against Emp.

But to say that I accused Ace, Emp and 789 and only them on the basis of clues is flat out false. I admitted that Cynan might have been a good catch, and that Mystlord was a very good target. I also requested that Ver put bill murray on the do not protect list. There are others, but frankly the omission of Mystlord from the list of people I thought were guilty via clues is hilarious. I even had Ver add him to the list of people I suspected. If I'm guilty of being wrong, so be it, but don't assume all my targets flipped green, because more than half of the people i fingered day 1 are still alive.

On to today:

Why did I accuse the people I did 12 hours ago? Lol because they're fishy as fuck.

But lets talk about that after some preliminaries:

1) It seems readily apparent to some that there are two 'group's in the set of clues: the ridge team and the other team. I buy this theory for the simple fact that the ridge team has showed up twice and is identified as a discernible group. So i'm going to call them: Ridge Team and Meadow Team. Meadow Team is a shitty name, but frankly it kinda makes both teams feel like Pokemon editions, and that's cool in my book.

2) Incog is using a lot of herrings. Intentional, even. If that's the case, he's basing personas out of a consistent combination of profiles. A picture, a quote, whatever. If that's the case, then he's going to be strict regarding how he describes multiple element clues and potentially more liberal with single source clues. The Scythe/Spear difference should emblemize that.

Okay, with that in mind:

Lets look at der clues.

1) There are Six mafia members described. The bomb was the blocked on Ver or not set in the first place. The clues also seem to indicate that cobbler was hit once per team. There are a few conclusions which flow from this, most of them which are bad for us with respect to analysing why Ver was bombed if he was bombed. Prior cluesets normally involve the hatter blowing people the fuck up during the clues which didn't happen here, so my prediction about the bomb being blocked seems accurate and consistent.

Previous clues:

Moonlight rider's probably Cynan

Emp's blue light killer might be 789 or amber. I didn't originally think that amber came in a blue form, but wikipedia told me otherwise.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amber
If that's the case, I hate incog.

Today's clues:

The final paragraph, in my mind, points to nemY:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=nemY
The fact that things were discovered the next day fits his profile quote, while the uproar fits his picture perfectly. The connection between someone falling and a message inciting the town to rage also fits. I really want to see other possibilities for this one, because I think this is a really elegant clue.

White floating thing is either Phrujbaz or OhN.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=Phrujbaz
Pretty self evident. The fact that its a meadow and the fact that the guy gets a runny nose point me heavily towards the dandelion seeds over the sakura. Then again, I don't live in an area with cherry trees so I don't know how they work outside of anime.

The two guys arguing seem to be madnessman. This one is a bit weaker than my other connections, but I haven't found anything that explains the key points quite as well:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=madnessman
Basically there are two birds which are fundamentally opposed to each other, but more importantly, one of them is a completely fearless dick who does whatever he wants despite prohibitions to the contrary: hence guts. I don't really have anything that explains the pan, though.

And last but not least: Mystlord.

THERES A GUY ON A ROOF AGAIN, WHO'S STANDING IN FRONT OF A LIGHT, HE KILLS SOME PEOPLE. DERP.

The third Mafioso headed toward the construction site, where workers had been trying to rush build a new town jail. From the building above, the third Mafioso noticed his target working in the guard tower across the jail courtyard. Smiling to himself, he snuck around to near the tower and took control of a crane that he had hidden nearby. Only a few of the workers noticed the large shadow blocking out the bright artificial light necessary to light the construction site. A few yelled at the workers to get out of the way, and fortunately everyone did but one. BloodyC0bbler did not notice as a miniature version of a stone sphinx came crashing down on the site, demolishing the guard tower and spraying blue blood everywhere.

Panicked citizens walked out of their houses to figure out what was happening, but they quickly retreated back to the safety of their homes once they heard gunshots and a hyena-like noise outside. The mayor and pardoner stopped in the town square, pausing for a moment to come up with a plan. But no plan would arise. The crazed psychopathic noises approached swiftly, and Incognito had no time to react as a shadowy figure leapt from a roof above and ripped his head off, still laughing as it raced down another alley leading out of the town square.

On February 18 2010 09:42 L wrote:
Yeah you're full of shit.

There's no conclusive link between the rooftop killer in the day 1 clues and the actual murder. The guy was just running away from the sounds and died.