|
On January 27 2010 05:44 XeliN wrote:
I thought lynching people without evidence is what we did? Might as well Lynch someone who has acted like a Mafia would rather than going on a vague "clue" or whatever poor logic you guys used to pick Softer
I will ask you again, so you may completely outline your thoughts in your reply.
What makes feel that X is mafia (where X is the name of a suspect you've listed previously)? What behavior do you find suspicious and why?
|
I am unsurprised.
And terribly terribly sad.
|
Another water/sea related clue and two men in black.
2AM seems like a pretty substantial clue as well...
Blargh; gonna come back to this later.
|
On January 28 2010 04:15 no_re wrote:
The fact that Xelin was killed means he was probably right on a lot of his accusations, even though there was a high chance of him being lynched, the mafia decided he needed to be killed for sure.
That's a very strange comment to make.
|
On January 28 2010 05:20 no_re wrote:
reasons why? seems like good logic to me
im annoyed. my circle of trust just got raped =[
Because it's not good logic. The mafia could have killed XeliN because he was getting too close to the truth, or because they could have killed him to throw the rest of us off. Or a combination of both - one of his list might in fact be mafia, but the rest of them could be townies. I don't believe that he was 100% correct, or even 50% correct, though I feel his later guesses are better than his earlier ones.
I'm surprised that everyone thought XeliN was mafia. He had a tendency to be angrily defensive of his own ideas, which grates on everyone's nerves and attempts to draw attention to himself - which in 90% of the time means he's just butthurt about not being listened to. It garners suspicion onto him, yes, simply because his manner of speech could be so abrasive, but I didn't think he was an experienced enough player to have been acting as a double-agent all that time.
|
Some thoughts on these clues:
One of these mafia has previously not been featured before, if we consider that there are 7 mafia and 3 x 2 deaths.
The first mafia seems to be the same mafia from day 1, with a similar location of where the murder occurred - that is, near the water. However, we have a second clue here in the form of the branded hand, which could mean any number of things... though putting it into Google yields a poem. The poem honors a seaman who was convicted and branded on his right hand for helping slaves.
There are some lines in the poem that refer to a 'Saviour'. Curiously, gaizka is a Basque name which means precisely that.
The second mafia uses a blade. He could potentially be the one from Day 2, but there are no references to odd formations made with the blade, but some to sound which suggests Day 1's mafia. Again, we have iloveKT for sound and VelkanKnight for blade, though after doing some research I'd also like to add Fulgrim for blade (as the WH40K character uses a sword), however much of a stretch it could be.
I don't believe we've witnessed a mafia that's used knives and has an association with time/watches before. I have no idea who this could be, though my feeling is that it's the previously unfeatured mafia.
|
On January 29 2010 01:39 dozko wrote:
I like to point out that no_re and RoyW have been putting in the same votes, since the beginning of the game. Both have stayed relatively quiet. no_re made a good clue analysis post in the first day which appears to have won him immunity against our consideration - mission accomplished he has not really made the same type of posts anymore.
I think it is highly likely that if one of them is mafia then the other is as well. In fact I dont get why they have been trying to vote off quickstriker since the first lynch. This is strange since I dont think there are any clues incriminating these guys, but their posting and voting patterns especially make me very suspicious.
I think it's time for me to bring up an accusation. WARNING: INCOMING WALL OF TEXT
First of all, I'd like to say that I appreciate everyone's contribution so far. The more people that participate the better chance we have of finding mafia.
Secondly, I'd like to say that I am an extremely non-aggressive person. I don't pick fights when I don't have to, and I'd like to believe that everyone speaking right now is not mafia. However, something has come to my attention that I feel warrants further investigation. I'm putting my credibility at risk here, and if it turns out I'm wrong I would understand if people became wary of me instead.
My suspicions:
There are no clues that currently point to no_re, but I find it odd that two of the three in his trust circle, Iaaan and XeliN died last night. Why is this so strange to me? Because I have knowledge that Iaaan roleclaimed DT to XeliN last night, and both Iaaan, XeliN and no_re have confirmed that XeliN had been sharing his information with no_re for some time.
Why does this bother me so much? Because it is possible to conclude that no_re is mafia, in that upon finding out this information he had a discussion with his fellow mafia and decided that the possible payoff for a hit on Iaaan was too good to pass up. But why XeliN as well? Because of the information that Iaaan passed on.
The information is that Iaaan claimed that he: 1)cluechecked the phrase about the broken flower vase and 2) that it did not point to me.
Assuming that Iaaan was right in guessing that I am a townie, the mafia would have moved to kill Iaaan and XeliN based on the chance that Iaaan was correct. It would have been a large risk to leave XeliN alive and have his suspicions turn back on no_re once it turned out Iaaan was green, the only other person that he's been talking to.
The possibility that Iaaan was NOT blue would be inconsequential in this case, because as far they knew, the only people in the trust circle were XeliN, Iaaan, and no_re. The death of Iaaan and XeliN wouldn't necessarily draw attention to no_re, and everyone else would have continued to pore over clues.
However, I knew that Iaaan was making this gambit to XeliN.
And because not just one, but BOTH of them died, I am highly suspicious of no_re, and will be using one of my two votes on him.
I have identified a few potential problems in my line of thought:
1) This could all be coincidence, and it turns out that no_re is innocent. This is what I am most fearful for, because it leaves us in no better of a position than before, though it is no worse than we have been doing previously. I hope that no_re can forgive me for such a forceful accusation if this is the case.
2) It is possible that I could be mafia, and I spoke with the rest of the mafia to arrange the hits. There is, after all, no proof and no way to check that my role is town-aligned.
I would then ask you why it would be a rational idea for me to accuse no_re and claim I had this hidden knowledge, whereas keeping silent would have been most beneficial. If after all of this he turns out to be innocent, then suspicion will surely turn back upon me for such a vehement accusation. It would be more beneficial to the mafia to remain silent of any knowledge and continue making hits as opposed to a grand public accusation which, if wrong, would draw suspicion towards them.
If it comes down to it, I would be willing to die to prove that I am not red. But, I want to win, and as such I want the town to win, and would hope to remain alive for as long as possible so that I can use my powers of Sheriff to prevent and/or deter mafia kills in the late game.
I have enclosed two of my PMs with Iaaan below.
So, Xelin thinks I'm the detective. I'm thinking of telling him that I am indeed the detective (even thought I'm not), and seeing if I die tonight, so I'm PMing you for two things, do you think I should lie, and if I do, I need to send someone my PM's for evidence if I do die. If I don't die, no big deal, then I can tell him the truth the next day, or I could keep lying are tell him who to vote for ;p
What do you think?
-Iaaan
So I messaged him. I sent you all my PMs to him, Read from bottom up. I have also PM'ed tree.hugger, Quickstriker, no_re, and Johnnyspazz if you want to see those ones o:
And keep in mind, I've been telling everyone different stories thought PM's, cause I generally PM them to see what their reactions to things are. Your the only one I'm telling the truth to, if your a mafia then your probably screwing me, and alot of other people over. lol
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
I lied to you before, I am the detective. I wasn't sure if I could trust you, it was better to be careful, but reading over the thread. I used a clue check yesterday, on "broken flower vase, with its contents now spread across the carpet, as well as the pieces of the pottery" because it seemed like it could point to our sheriff, and I wanted to make sure I could trust him, and I couldn't role check him so...
But for tonight, I'm thinking since I'll probably die in the next 2 or 3 days, I'm going to use a rolecheck. Everyone is suspicious of Quickstriker, so I'm thinking of using it on him; its helpful either way if it comes up red or green. But then he could still be the godfather... Other than that, I'm not sure tho. Maybe iLoveKT or RoyW or Jonoman92.... But, who do you think I should check? and whats your role, just a townie? I thought that was probably your role, cause you wouldn't really want to risk a blue role calling on people to lynch you for information ;p
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
I'm not the detective ;p
I'm hoping tree.hugger or cresentia is, since they have protection, otherwise idk.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
Are you the detective? This is the only hypothetical that is making much sense to me, if so you may have rolechecked Softer and it came back Red, hence you voting for him without, as far as I could tell, much evidence.
Softer "Changed colour" so that suggests he was a Miller, and so possibly you or also potentially Cresentia may be a DT.
You being the DT makes alot of sense to me though as another hypothetical is you have rolechecked Quickstriker and it came back Green.
In the above scenario then I would believe Quickstriker to be the Godfather, chosen by the Mafia at an early stage in order to protect him from rolechecks as he was one of the first people accused of being Mafia.
I really do hope some or all of this is true. Although it is mainly a guess so hopefully you can clarify.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
-Iaaan
Hi!, you are right I am very suspicious wait scrap that close to certain (i shudnt say this as from a philosophical viewpoint im not even certain of things like "do we exist" but meh) that he is mafia. A post he made earlier did make me think however that his role is either likely to be the Godfather or innocent. He basically invited the DT to check him now unless he was banking on the fact the DT would ignore that and wouldn't actually do it, he would either be the Godfather or innocent.
Statisically it is far more likely he is innocent if i follow this train of though, I however believe he, and some other of the more active posters, are Mafia and you are right if elected my first move would be to kill him.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
So right to it, Quickstriker is suspicious. I was thinking about talking about lynching him, or killing him if I got mayor, but then I thought, because he is the most suspicious, The DT's will probably role check him first.
Your posts make it sound like you want to kill him, or your at least keeping an eye on him, but I think on the first day it would be more beneficial to kill someone else, instead of someone the DT's will probably check.
so yeah, just my thoughts about Quickstriker so far. Thought I would share o:
I would say something nice about you now, like how insightful your posts are, but obviously you would have to think that it is superficial, I could easily be a Mafia, or be trying to manipulate you for whatever other reason. So I'll just write my name instead
There is one more PM which could be brought up in this discussion, in which I sent to no_re earlier yesterday about if there was another person in his trust group. Unfortunately, this is due to my misreading of his "2 out of 3" post earlier, where I thought he had been talking to 3 people, not two. That is included in the following spoiler (read from bottom to top): + Show Spoiler +oh nevermind I misinterpreted your post
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
the only people I have talked to in PM are Iaaan and XeliN...
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
who was the last person you talked to - and what did you tell them?
I believe this is enough context to put no_re into suspicion. I hope you read this and come to your own conclusions about it. I encourage everyone to reread no_re's clue analysis posts, because I am now seriously considering the possibility that they are deliberately designed to mislead us.
I will be voting no_re as one out of two to be lynched.
|
On January 29 2010 08:04 Jonoman92 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2010 12:44 dozko wrote:On January 28 2010 12:41 ShoCkeyy wrote:
... + Show Spoiler +On January 24 2010 09:57 dozko wrote:My analysis of the day 2 clues. The bold ones are the ones I think are the most significant. 1) Quickstriker + Show Spoiler + - The figure may refer to the chess piece in the picture of his profile, as in a chess figurine.
- "Object in his hands" although the piece is not "long", it is being held in the hands of the character
- Note how the guy in his picture is slightly tilted to one side and it could be said he is "looking over his shoulder". Also those large expressive , jap art eyes can easily be linked to the "gaze", "eyes gazing" 2) iplaythings + Show Spoiler + - The murdered were playing a "late night game" 3) drinking + Show Spoiler + - Note he joined TL on the 31 of December. I would classify this as a pretty memorable night. 4) softer + Show Spoiler + - In his profile quote: "Visualize success, but dont believe your eyes. I think this matches up really well with the quote from the narration "They were on watch the entire night, they figured that would be enough. They figured wrong." 5) no_re + Show Spoiler + - They played a bowling game, but it was their last one since they got pwnt by the killers and therefore will never be able to regame. 6) shockeyy + Show Spoiler + - Look at his profile pic. He's got the red eye effect in the photo, which makes his eyes look very expressive due to the black background. I believe this could be a reference to the "hypnotized" gaze in the narration, as his eyes look very menacing and hypnosis is usually done with a strong eye contact. Out of the bolded ones I believe the clue towards drinking is the most believable, since it is not very obvious but it still is not too far fetched. However the clue towards softer is very strong since we have a match of a whole sentence. Given that both these have had clue references in day 1 (i.e. the water for drinking and "tenderly" for softer) i currently believe that these two are the most likely to be mafia. Therefore I will vote for softer to be lynched for now, unless i hear some convincing arguments in his defense, since he has not replied in his defense to my day1 post stating the "tenderness" clue and he generally is keeping a low profile, but people should keep an eye on drinking as well since his clue is very persuasive IMO. dozko, let me first say thanks for doing such extensive analysis to give us all information to review and consider. The thing is you have a lot of leads and so far we're yet to catch a mafia member. I think that some of the leads must be correct but it is certainly hard to know which ones. We also don't exactly know what method BC is using to lay clues. I think that if we can get a mafia member on this turn we should continue along the same path but otherwise maybe we should put less emphasis on the clues and more on examining people's postng behaviors and trying to see if we can figure out motives from that. With so many inactives it does present a problem though... I wish there was a way to check if people were viewing the thread even if they aren't posting because that would lead me to believe they are mafia rather than noobs who signed up for mafia and are dumb townies who aren't caring to participate.
Like the voting thread stated... the inactives we have right are being PM'd with regards to their inactivity, and will be removed by the end of this Day unless they start doing stuff. You can sort of verify this if you start running into people posting on other sections of the forum but not saying anything. I've noticed Iplaythings and Nigol at some point while this thread has been up, but for the most part the people on the above list haven't said very much so far.
|
On January 29 2010 08:43 no_re wrote:you sure wrote a lot of text without much real content, crescentia. Here is a copy of the PMs between myself and Iaaan in which you will see my reasons for my votes The reason I picked the two out of my 4 main suspects, is because they were receiving the largest amount of votes, and therefore I would not feel like I was wasting mine on people that would not get lynched. Read from the bottom up, First PM is Iaaan's + Show Spoiler +Honestly, I thought softer was a decent guess, not the best, but not too bad either; I don't know how much suspicion to put on people for that. But I agree anyway, I'm suspicious of tree simply because he is the mayor, quickstriker just because ;p, shockeyy I agree hes a dumbass either way, just coming in and accusing people for no reason, Dozko I don't have an opinion on yet.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
hey hows it going?
My thoughts atm for most likely mafia members are
QuickStriker, still
ShoCkey guy, he is either a terrible mafia or a terrible townie. So either a mafia or someone useless to the town anyway
Dozko his vague posting style spreading a lot of disinformation makes him a prime candidate in my eyes, plus he voted for softer.
Tree.Hugger his voting patterns seem quite suspect to me especially his vote for softer late yesterday.
I have a small circle of trust currently with XeliN thought I probably have given that away anyway in my thread posting.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
Yeah, but of course he could just be excited to be playing Mafia, which I kind of am myself ;p There isn't very much to go on yet, but we will have to pay attention to further clues, and what potential DT's say about him, especially on day 2, because if I were a DT, so far he seems like the best choice for a role check.
Also, I decided to run for Mayor/Sheriff. I wasn't sure if I could do a good job at first, but I think its very important that a Mafia doesn't become sheriff, or especially mayor, and I right now the only person I know isn't Mafia is me (which i would probably say if I were Mafia, but still, the only thing a townie can be 100% sure of right now is their own role), so I figured rather than just abstaining and giving the Mafia a greater voting power (because 6 votes for them is a fair bit), I would run myself and hopefully weaken their chances, since only 4 people have stepped up so far, and at least one of them is probably a Mafia, its pretty likely they would get in.
But yeah, vote for me if you think you should, but either way I'll probably keep Pming you occasionally, Its good to talk to either a smart townie, or even if you are a Mafia (which is a 19.5%(?) possibility for everyone!), still good to see what you say. I guess you could think the same thing, if I am a Mafia, good to keep an eye on me ;p Not that I'm a mafia... but still! 19.5% chance and not much info to go on!
anyway o:
-Iaaan
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
I agree with a lot of what you say, I am very suspicious of Quickstriker, something in his posting style makes me feel he is trying very hard to look like we need to keep him around.
sorry for my slow response, I wrote my analysis just before I went to bed =]
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
Very nice analysis of the first killings (;
What do you think of quicksilver? He definitely could be a Mafia, with that little clue about a quick attack (although that's obviously not 100% certain), but I think that he could be trying to set himself up to be elected, with all his warnings. It makes him look experienced, which is important if he wants a position of power, especially since most people here are new at this.
So yeah, I think that if he puts himself up to be elected, hes going to look pretty good, which obviously would be what he wants if hes a mafia.
But, what do you think about him so far? O:
Im still not sure what you are accusing me of crescentia, to quote your post you say "Why does this bother me so much? Because it is possible to conclude that no_re is mafia," So from all your typing it is possible I am mafia - I question how this is different from anyone else? Bring forward some real substance to your next wall of text or I feel it may look like you are trying too hard to convince people of what isn't there.
Why so dismissive? This has very little to do with your voting record, so I'm not sure why you brought it up. I've mentioned the possible holes in my argument, and you haven't responded to them.
I am accusing you of being mafia because Xelin may have shared with you that Ian had claimed that he was DT, and claimed to have used a clue check on me to show that I had nothing to do with the murders. Because the mafia has certain knowledge of who is town and who is mafia AND KNEW what had transgressed between Xelin and Iaaan, they would have been faced with the possible threat of a DT and would look to kill him.
My conjecture is that the link between Xelin/Iaaan's conversation and the possible cause for their deaths is that you are mafia, as you were in communication with both of these people. The possible counterarguments I have thought of are that 1) it was a coincidence that both of them died no matter what information you and XeliN traded, and 2) because I'm mafia trying to throw people off. I know it's difficult to make a case for the first point. You can make a case for the second, or that there is some other scenario that I haven't thought of.
Above all else, I want you to tell me why I'm wrong. It may be that I'm trying too hard to see things, but I'd rather try and be proven wrong and apologize for that. I am sorry if my tone was too harsh and I apologize if you were offended. It was difficult for me to say something as well, because I like to avoid conflict whenever I can, and the thought that I might be wrong and we would lose another active townie is pretty crushing to consider. If I do turn out to be a fool, I hope you can forgive me.
|
Fuck me I can be so blind sometimes.
Lelouch vi Britannia from Code Geass (and QS's profile) has the power to hypnotically command people to do whatever he wants them to do. Not only that, there is an episode where he has a ridiculous looking sword (the blade is purple) which he waves around absurdly as he's giving commands to soldiers - definitely in what I would call 'odd formations.'
Maybe BC has seen Code Geass.
I think I may vote for QS with my second vote...
|
On January 29 2010 09:45 no_re wrote:
I feel that laaan and Xelin were both killed by the mafia since they were getting a lot of things right.
Also in the PM's between Xelin and Iaaan, Iaaan only claimed to be a DT at first, and came clean to Xelin he was just a townie before he was mafia lynched.
Read PMs from the bottom up due to the dumb reply system TL has. He claimed not to be DT, then he did.
|
On January 29 2010 09:50 no_re wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2010 09:42 d3_crescentia wrote:
Fuck me I can be so blind sometimes.
Lelouch vi Britannia from Code Geass (and QS's profile) has the power to hypnotically command people to do whatever he wants them to do. Not only that, there is an episode where he has a ridiculous looking sword (the blade is purple) which he waves around absurdly as he's giving commands to soldiers - definitely in what I would call 'odd formations.'
Maybe BC has seen Code Geass.
I think I may vote for QS with my second vote... You can't seriously vote for me AND quickstriker? I am pretty much camped atop the lynch quickstriker pile
Dunno for sure; it's something I'm keeping in mind. My money's still on someone like Jonoman92 or RoyW atm. Though, I've been itching to see what color he turns out to be, because I've reviewed his earlier posts and found some good ideas and some bad ideas.
|
On January 29 2010 10:02 no_re wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2010 09:55 d3_crescentia wrote:
Dunno for sure; it's something I'm keeping in mind. My money's still on someone like Jonoman92 or RoyW atm. Though, I've been itching to see what color he turns out to be, because I've reviewed his earlier posts and found some good ideas and some bad ideas. Show nested quote +On January 26 2010 07:53 XeliN wrote:
The next obvious target, although they could choose from many, for the Mafia to try to get lynched would be Royw, look out for this, some of them have already tried to associate "clues" with him if you are a Townie I urge you not to vote for him. Xelin was good at this game...
Or that he just got defensive when Shockeyy criticized him and viewed everything he said as a possible mafia threat. IIRC Shockeyy was the first to criticize RoyW for supporting Xelin - which seemed within a reasonable range of behaviors.
I know Shockeyy is posting from his phone, but with that said it seems to me that there wasn't any reason why Shockeyy was so firm in his conviction that Xelin was mafia. I might decide to vote him too. There are just so many suspicious candidates around here; I feel like a girl in a shopping mall trying on clothes.
|
On January 29 2010 10:31 no_re wrote:
Well my answer will always be that I knew he wasn't DT, if it is true or not.
I don't know what that last bit is supposed to mean.
|
On January 29 2010 12:53 ShoCkeyy wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2010 10:10 d3_crescentia wrote:On January 29 2010 10:02 no_re wrote:On January 29 2010 09:55 d3_crescentia wrote:
Dunno for sure; it's something I'm keeping in mind. My money's still on someone like Jonoman92 or RoyW atm. Though, I've been itching to see what color he turns out to be, because I've reviewed his earlier posts and found some good ideas and some bad ideas. On January 26 2010 07:53 XeliN wrote:
The next obvious target, although they could choose from many, for the Mafia to try to get lynched would be Royw, look out for this, some of them have already tried to associate "clues" with him if you are a Townie I urge you not to vote for him. Xelin was good at this game... Or that he just got defensive when Shockeyy criticized him and viewed everything he said as a possible mafia threat. IIRC Shockeyy was the first to criticize RoyW for supporting Xelin - which seemed within a reasonable range of behaviors. I know Shockeyy is posting from his phone, but with that said it seems to me that there wasn't any reason why Shockeyy was so firm in his conviction that Xelin was mafia. I might decide to vote him too. There are just so many suspicious candidates around here; I feel like a girl in a shopping mall trying on clothes. I was firm, wtf you talking about? Did you not see as to how many times I re-read his post and even provided with reasons as to why he was mafia. Like everyone else here, and even tree.hugger, I fucked up in choosing him. Which is why I just leave the clue seeking to you guys. I wish I can really try and find clues, but it's fucking hard with a phone. I will just read what every one has to say, and give my little 2cents here and there. My townie role only comes into play when I have to go and vote. Either way, when I do see something suspicious, I do post it and if you count the people that I have accused, it was like only three or four.
Yeah, but most of your reasons were a bunch of what ifs, along the lines of "he must be doing this because he's trying to confuse us" and rarely considered (or didn't have the time/posting ability to consider) that he might just have his own perspective.
|
Alright, fuck it. I've had enough rooting around names and blogs to find that you can make a connection to a sword with a large portion of our population. Just looked at SagaZ's blog and saw that he references Berserk, which features a main character that - check it out - WEARS BLACK and WIELDS A SWORD.
I'm going to be sticking with no_re for my first vote, regardless of my doubts about it. I think it's worth a shot, and if it turns out I'm wrong then I'm wrong.
My second vote is going to be going to QuickStriker, because I'd like to get to the bottom of these vague 'quick' clues once and for all, and because he hasn't been around recently to do anything helpful. Judging by one of his earlier posts:Like I have stated over again and again from the very beginning of the game, the purpose for me in this game is to guide fellow novices of the TL mafia game and helping the town lead its way to a positive direction. And this is in regardless of who I might be in the ultimate end when all of you find out My instinct is to label him either Bodyguard or Mafia going by this, as I recall him claiming green earlier. We'll see in the morning, I suppose.
|
On January 29 2010 13:48 d3_crescentia wrote:Judging by one of his earlier posts: Show nested quote +Like I have stated over again and again from the very beginning of the game, the purpose for me in this game is to guide fellow novices of the TL mafia game and helping the town lead its way to a positive direction. And this is in regardless of who I might be in the ultimate end when all of you find out My instinct is to label him either Bodyguard or Mafia going by this, as I recall him claiming green earlier. We'll see in the morning, I suppose.
Guess I was right after all... wish I didn't waver in the last moment.
At least 7strife is dead.
|
Goddamnit. I was 90% sure QS wasn't mafia, and I still jumped on that stupid bandwagon due to a vague reference in a 52-episode anime series. Fuck my irrationality. In the case there are no more bodyguards left, I expect that either me or tree.hugger may die tonight, whichever one of us isn't mafia.
Gaizka was not mafia, but we still have the branded hand to look at.
|
We now have 23 - 8 = 15 townies left.
If we continue to lynch incorrectly every day, then we have 2 days left before the town/mafia are at even numbers. I don't know if that counts as a win for them, but regardless we need to get these next two *right*. If it comes down to it, we may have to use a double-lynch on Day 5 (which would mean voting on Day 4...)
no_re
RoyW
Jonoman92
sidesprang
I also continue to suspect iloveKT to a lesser degree, because he hasn't posted too much, has those soundwaves in his profile, and because it's possible that he decided to waste a vote on another mafia that was going to be modkilled anyway.
|
On January 30 2010 03:34 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Alright guys, not that you can trust me...It's clear we cannot trust those that are leading us in circles...
there are now 15 of us vs 6...
I am becoming to suspect Fulgrim from varying clues...I'm just tryinng to connect one mafia to another among differing days.
We'll see where I get it, but I'm also looking at a few other people too, so don't feel too offended fulgrim.
Again, if any of you would like to suspect me, connect me to a clue. Any of them.
I just did a manual count to double-check my work, and...
We have 17 players total, of which 6 are mafia, or 11 vs. 6
This means that we only have tomorrow to come out of this.
Tomorrow will be 8 vs 6 after the mafia have killed 3.
We'll have to lynch one (5 = 3KP) and incarcerate another (4 = 2KP) on Day 4 to survive to a 6vs5 situation on the day after. We'll have to vote for a double-lynch on Day 5 and lynch two to win... but if we don't, we end up in a 4v4 which is probably GG town. Tough odds.
We also have to consider that tree.hugger may be mafia, then we're fucked for the next day. If it turns out that both me and tree.hugger are mafia, then town might as well call it quits, because this incarceration plan won't work to town's favor... but if tree.hugger is town, then we have a solid chance.
There's gotta be an active DT out there somewhere. Role-check someone. I expect both of our medics are down and out.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
