EPTFor the record Im also not convinced QS is mafia and we should be weary of people jumping on lynchwagons too quickly without posting any arguments.
BloodyC0bblers's Mafia XVI - Page 2
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
For the record Im also not convinced QS is mafia and we should be weary of people jumping on lynchwagons too quickly without posting any arguments. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
I am of course talking about the DT's attack animation and how it leaves a gray shape. Given that all the clues d3_crescentia posted from previous games were given in the killing method plus the additional match with the drawing of figures in the air could very well be a big clue. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
On January 25 2010 10:51 ShoCkeyy wrote: So? What if he's digging these clues so he can just slide under our noses? What if these clues lead us to killing townies. I only agree with royw, cause him and xelin are my top suspcious people. Fair enough, and I am indeed suspicious of him after seeing that post by d3, where most of the clues were given in the way the murder was carried out. Couple this with his voting pattern is making me contemplate changing my vote. Ill sleep over it for now though. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
I guess now we should pay attention only to the way someone is killed, seeing how BC gave out all real clues in there in previous games. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
On January 26 2010 14:54 Fishball wrote: During lunch break today, I was checking the voting thread and noticed tree.hugger has placed his vote on softer, and it was very close to the dead line. In his previous post, he said: At the time, QS already had 5 votes on him. With tree.hugger's vote on softer, it brings softer's count up to 5 as well. Still, QS would have been lynched as he was the first one to 5. But what would be the point of doing so, voting at such a late time, with a high probability of the target not being lynched? I decided to abstain my vote from QS and let it play out; Turns out this was unnecessary as Iaaan and d3_crescentia both voted softer at the last minute. This scenario just seems a bit odd to me. Also, softer never really had any solid clues related to him. Who do you think we had solid clues on, in your opinion? | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
Anyway I think that because 1) every day 3 people from the mob participate in the killings 2) BC's rotating them so that not a single person appears too many times in the clues; it is safe to assume that after the dawn of day 3 every mafia member would have done at least one of the kills. Now we have a double lynch which I think is a good thing because theoretically we now have all the info we need. If we dont lynch any mafia with 3 days' worth of clues then the marginal helpfulness of further ones is surely diminishing. I think we need to focus first and foremost on identifying recurring patterns within the clues and looking at them more generally (i.e. not hinging on adjectives/sentences alone since that didnt help us so far, but looking more for concepts and themes) . Ill be doing a massive analysis of the 3 days' worth of clues in parallel so hopefully that will shed some light, since I am a bit confused at this point. Also one thing I want to, tentatively (because it is based a lot on my opinion), suggest is that we use at least one of the lynches on an election candidate. Reasons for that being: 1) A lot of people are inactive and as I convinced myself after last night's lynch, inactivity + single word clues are not the way forwards. Sure these people are not very helpful and some might be mafia, but I severely doubt that any (or the strong majority in any case) of the reds will downplay their presence to such an extent as being inactive. 2) I am convinced that the mafia ran at least one member for election, therefore it is a good idea to lynch at least one of them because 1/4 is certainly good odds and that theory makes sense. Now to conclude currently I am presenting to you two ideas for your consideration (and pls agree/disagree since I am slightly annoyed at the inactivity of the game): I - We lynch only among the active people in the game - i.e. those with more than a few meaningful posts. II - We lynch one of the election candidates - i.e. d3_crescentia, tree.hugger, fulgrim and Iaaan. Of those 4, my gut feeling is that d3 is not mafia - however I have no evidence to back this up and so it will be good if all posters say which person (if such exists) they 100% believe is a townie, so feel free to disagree. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
Before I present you my conclusions, take a look for your reference at the list of possible suspects: + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://img99.imageshack.us/i/suspects.jpg/) The people I have crossed out in red are those which are in danger of being modkilled. In my opinion we should not waste our time and lynches on these since it is highly likely that BC will take them out and I believe that the mafia are in fact among the active players. Okay so these are the people we're considering and a quick check shows us that they amount to 18 (17 excluding myself) players. Given that 7 mafia are left, then the probability of getting a lynch wrong is very favorable. Therefore I insist that we do not hesitate to vote for people who we think fit the clues, simply because they have played a big part in the thread, have a good posting style or other such details. Now on to my prime suspects for lynching. Lets get the obvious out of the way first: iloveKT has the obvious sound reference due to the sound waves in his profile. VelkanKnight has the obvious knightly association with swords. I do not think that our lynches are worth it for these guys because a) the clues are far too obvious and b) they have not been active at all so in my opinion we've got bigger fish to fry first. QuickStriker+ Show Spoiler + First lets establish a connection between the player and the concept and then see how the concept/mold fits the clues. A google search of shriek gives us references to a comic villain, to quoting wiki: “Agony, is a fictional character and a supervillain from the Spider-Man comic books. She is one of six symbiote spawns of Venom. She is predominantly purple.” First connection - look at his profile picture, there's no doubt the guy has an aura of evil badass around him. Further the sleeve is purple in the picture, the scarf is light purple and the gloves have a purplish tint. Second connection - the fictional character is listed as having "Superhuman strength, speed, agility and endurance“. This fits neatly with the ferociousness of the last day 3 kills and their speed as evidenced by the looking at the watch. Third connection - the second killing is done by "ripped the blade upwards cutting the now dead townie in half from the chest up". Again the supernatural strength needed to do this matches as above. Even more strongly however I find the resemblance between the killing blow and the hand motion of the guy in QS's profile. To me it looks like the picture is taken when the guy is doing the exact same forceful movement - starting from the chest and going up. PS. Not related to the above but the constant refusal to vote, by excuses of "not having enough information, or being too busy" given the multitude of his posts would have warranted a lynch on its own if we were playing a longer game and had whittled the mafia down initially. Therefore I will place my first vote to lynch QuickStriker Jonoman92+ Show Spoiler + Again lets start with the overlying theme of drawings / technical drawings / formations. This is written in such a way by BC that I feel that it MUST be a clue. Therefore looking at the profiles of all the suspects the only two which match are VelkanKnight - for his Lolicon reference in the quote, which is basically a type of cartoon drawings. The other match, which has already been mentioned is Jonoman92 - arcology. These are principles which are aimed at designing massive structures etc. Now while both can be classified as drawings only the latter can be considered technical, and since these building are predominantly hypothetical they can also be considered as strange formations - e.g. look at the picture on the wiki page for arcology - its basically a building formed by a load of triangles, this is something i definately relate to strange formations. I am also curious as to why this clue was overlooked initially. It is of appropriate difficulty and matches extremely well. Okay so to conclude my conjecture is that I - QuickStriker is mafia and responsible for the day 3 second and third killings and II - Jonoman92 is also mafia and responsible for the last day 2 kill. I consider these my prime suspects and will vote for them as per my reasons above. Other suspicions: Fulgrim+ Show Spoiler + The 40k warrior guy with a huge ass sword sewing death etc etc. I think that since we have nothing else that can match to the long object in the hands of one of the killers and since this looks out of place enough for it to be a clue i deem it significant. + in that same novel there is a guy called ferus manus whose "iron hands play a big role". Further people picked up on the branded hand poem and fisherman reference. Shockeyy+ Show Spoiler + I still stand by my day 2 analysis of him and the connection I made to the hypnosis related killing and the spooky red eyes on his profile pic. I suggest people give that another read, I think the hypnosis bit is definitely a clue and shockeyy is the only person it can strongly relate to. Closing conclusions: + Show Spoiler + - Remember how in the beginning of the game one of the reasons that motivated my choice to believe d3_crescentia is not mafia was his posting style etc etc. Well I now believe we have an even stronger proof of that. The people who voted for him in the election. Of the 5 total votes, 3 have been confirmed townies through death and since I am a townie as well (although sadly this will also have to be proven in death it seems) we have only 1 person voting for him, who has "unclear intent". Therefore I conclude that if the mafia ran someone for election they would've at least supported him with a decent number of members - therefore d3 cant be mafia. Of course that strategy is logical but if the mafia have not in fact put up an election candidate then this theory falls apart since it doesn't really give us any conclusions. Since I have trusted him from the beginning of the game I would look mighty retarded if he turned out red and the small number of "uncertain people" votes for him was due to the fact that the mob realized he would win anyway and thus didnt give full support to him. - This leads to the conclusion that one of tree.hugger or fulgrim must be mafia if the reds have employed that strategy. I dont relate tree.hugger's profile pic to anything so if anyone has any ideas please share them. However his conservative posting style and attractive position of responsibility make him very suspicious. - Therefore whatever the outcome I think that the next lynch should include at least one of the two Also I am very interested as to why JadeFist, votes for me. I think some people are taking on the idea of "carrying out Xelin's legacy", which I think is clearly unfounded and such people may very well be the remaining mafia members since such a high profile kill (of a very active poster) will have the obvious repercussions of other players believing that the person was killed because of his suspicion. However this could very well be the mafia's attempt to muddy the waters. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
On January 28 2010 12:41 ShoCkeyy wrote: ... + Show Spoiler + On January 24 2010 09:57 dozko wrote: My analysis of the day 2 clues. The bold ones are the ones I think are the most significant. 1) Quickstriker + Show Spoiler + - The figure may refer to the chess piece in the picture of his profile, as in a chess figurine. - "Object in his hands" although the piece is not "long", it is being held in the hands of the character - Note how the guy in his picture is slightly tilted to one side and it could be said he is "looking over his shoulder". Also those large expressive , jap art eyes can easily be linked to the "gaze", "eyes gazing" 2) iplaythings+ Show Spoiler + - The murdered were playing a "late night game" 3) drinking + Show Spoiler + - Note he joined TL on the 31 of December. I would classify this as a pretty memorable night. 4) softer + Show Spoiler + - In his profile quote: "Visualize success, but dont believe your eyes. I think this matches up really well with the quote from the narration "They were on watch the entire night, they figured that would be enough. They figured wrong." 5) no_re + Show Spoiler + - They played a bowling game, but it was their last one since they got pwnt by the killers and therefore will never be able to regame. 6) shockeyy + Show Spoiler + - Look at his profile pic. He's got the red eye effect in the photo, which makes his eyes look very expressive due to the black background. I believe this could be a reference to the "hypnotized" gaze in the narration, as his eyes look very menacing and hypnosis is usually done with a strong eye contact. Out of the bolded ones I believe the clue towards drinking is the most believable, since it is not very obvious but it still is not too far fetched. However the clue towards softer is very strong since we have a match of a whole sentence. Given that both these have had clue references in day 1 (i.e. the water for drinking and "tenderly" for softer) i currently believe that these two are the most likely to be mafia. Therefore I will vote for softer to be lynched for now, unless i hear some convincing arguments in his defense, since he has not replied in his defense to my day1 post stating the "tenderness" clue and he generally is keeping a low profile, but people should keep an eye on drinking as well since his clue is very persuasive IMO. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
I think it is highly likely that if one of them is mafia then the other is as well. In fact I dont get why they have been trying to vote off quickstriker since the first lynch. This is strange since I dont think there are any clues incriminating these guys, but their posting and voting patterns especially make me very suspicious. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
Although I made that massive clue analysis on why QS might be mafia, the voting patterns coupled with the stuff that d3 just put up is really making my spider senses tingle... These four people have generally been extremely low key and have watched from the sidelines most of the times, yet are the first to jump on the QS bandwagon. Since I am more used to playing post analysis mafia games only (i.e. no clues in narration) my gut is telling me that these are suspicious. Further I dont think my QS theory is watertight at all since if I place him on both kills in day 3 and it looks like there are other double murderers. Couple this with the fact that the guy is not around to defend himself due to his NSL. Although there are about 24 hours left, I will change my first vote from Quickstriker to no_re right now to see what their responses will be. I am really anxious to hear what our mayor has to say and where his three votes will go. The people I consider to be mafia as of this point - jonoman92, no_re, royw, sidesprang, fulgrim and perhaps the others are from the inactives. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
However if the "hypnotized" clue is connected to the anime on QS's profile (and I dont watch any so i cant know), then I dont think voting for shockeyy is the most precise thing to do (although the braided hand clue might refer to him). A much better choice is jonoman imo and im sad to see people have not caught on to the idea. I guess we'll have to see how events unfold tonight... | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
Time to lynch one of jonoman/no_re/fulgrim/royw & co. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
I mean sure the clues did match QS but a quick look and think over the posting and voting of the last day was enough to convince me that QS wasnt mafia, GIVEN that I had already written like 400 words in his accusation. This should speak plenty of the strength of my belief that QS was not mafia yet no one bothered to change their votes. Further the clue that got shockeyy lynched was utterly far fetched and such a poor connection yet so many voted for it so quickly. Another fact to not be optimistic about is that we STILL do not know whether our mayor is mafia or not. Not to mention most of our blues were either quickly killed or inactive. In short we need to lynch one of no_re, jonoman, royw, and sidesprang - since they were the people to so quickly vote and stay locked in on two innocents. Hopefully the person we go for should be red an we'll be in it with a chance. However that will depend largely on our mayor and whether or not he votes correctly since you see how hard it is to overpower an obviously wrong vote. | ||
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