Incognito's TL Mafia XVI
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DoctorHelvetica
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In fact, I don't really see anything related. This part seems like it might be a clue: "The killer blocked Kennigit's blade with an apple that had had fallen out of the refrigerator and swiftly proceeded to shove the remains of the apple down Kennigit's throat before throwing him out the window." Does anyones profile/sig/quote have a reference to apples? Also, the apple being in the throat could be a reference to a pig, since they are cooked with apples stuffed down their throat. I doubt that's it, but nothing else really caught my eye. | ||
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On January 20 2010 12:09 meeple wrote: It caught my eye too... but perhaps its not an apple... but something about an adams apple, since its in his throat. So perhaps something that's extra manly... or has an adams apple thats especially prominent. Is anyone a huge reach fan? lol\ On January 20 2010 12:09 Nikoner wrote: Since it explicitly says "highly caffeinated black tea", and dreamflower said that clues can be referring to player names as well, could this be pointing to StimiLant? that's actually not such a bad theory. | ||
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but it still seems like a tad too little to lynch someone off, I guess if we can't find anything better we should go with that. The fridge is also mentioned a few times, maybe it's a clue? | ||
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and he eats cookies not fruit. the cookie monster reminds me more of a retarded bear or something | ||
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On January 20 2010 12:27 blue_arrow wrote: Oh yeah and the stimulant to caffiene connection is a very strong one, but the problem i see with it is that stimulant is very difficult to connect with the apple+monkey+fridge killer or the thin blade killer well different clues probably refer to different mafia members there are 7 right? so im sure all the clues don't point to just one person. I'd be hard pressed to find 7 clues in there, maybe 3 or so? | ||
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so here's about everything that sticks out to me: The Tea The Apple The Knife The Fridge Also, this segment? "his killer carefully dragged the body into the closet, making sure to clean up the pool of blood on the floor." Although I'm not sure what that could refer to, it stood out to me. | ||
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It's something. | ||
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On January 20 2010 12:45 [NyC]HoBbes wrote: Ng5 as a chess movement could suggest calculating/cold If that would put Ng5 under suspicion, then what about ghote? I google the name after seeing the beatle lyrics in his profile (possible reference to Apple) and Ghote is a detective in a series of novels. A detective would have that sort of calculating/cold nature, and there is also the possibility of the apple reference pointing to him. | ||
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On January 20 2010 12:58 meeple wrote: I think those types of classifications are too vague... Hyperbola is a math term, so that could be construed as cold and calculating as well. Maybe. The apple reference is what stood out to me the most, so I think I just really want to connect that to something. Although it definitely is, something. The StimiLant/Tea connection seems the most solid to me though. | ||
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On January 20 2010 13:00 [NyC]HoBbes wrote: Interesting idea that cold/calculating could apply to Ghote also. Wouldn't the apple clue apply to the other murderer though? oh wow what was I thinking the apple connection is a bit less far-fetched, so if i were to suspect ghote of being mafia, it would be over that and not his name being an obscure reference to an indian mystery novel series | ||
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On January 20 2010 13:04 meeple wrote: Is the link between apples/cleanliness to Jayme's profile too far fetched? I think so. Perhaps we should worry about the election business before trying to determine mafia from the first clues. Even the ones that seem most solid to me (ghote/apples and stimilant/tea) are a bit far fetched. | ||
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heres some alternate meanings i found: zona (another term for the disease known as 'the shingles' abenson (phillipines appliance store, possibly related to the fridge?) | ||
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On January 20 2010 13:09 meeple wrote: Yeah but would Incognito/dreamflower know this? I definitely didn't, but if its more common knowledge than I think then thats really strong. apple is a pretty big record label, and the beatles are a pretty important group so I wouldn't be surprised. | ||
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If you're serious about the game, shouldn't you be reading every page as it is? | ||
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We don't actually legitimately vote on a lynching victim until day 2 i think | ||
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On January 20 2010 14:16 citi.zen wrote: How about this: one of Qatol's quotes is: "guns make you stupid." We have a player called magicbullet - who could resent that and call him vile, dirty scum. That's really really far-fetched. | ||
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for mafia #2, I'm at a loss. | ||
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I think we shouldn't get too ahead of ourselves with these clues. | ||
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On January 20 2010 14:33 citi.zen wrote: Hobbes maybe fits the "barbaric noises" and "raised fists" description. Also, he has the NyC before the name - the "big apple". that's better than keit imo since it fits at least 2 clues | ||
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If I'm elected mayor, I will most likely lynch ghote, unless someone turns out to be more suspicious. As far as the position of sheriff is concerned, the power of incarceration is pretty important. The problem is the possibility of incarcerating a blue like a medic/detective/vig I wouldn't incarcerate indiscriminately to avoid something like that as much as possible. | ||
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I'd say then that Hobbes would be the most suspicious as of now, not that anyone is super super suspicious yet. But still, if we can get a mafia with the mayor's first lynch that's ideal. | ||
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Hobbes is the only one who can potentially fit the whole picture, even if it seems a bit far-fetched. | ||
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On January 20 2010 15:03 Ser Aspi wrote: I agree! These clues seem really hard. They'll probably be easier as the game continues DoctorH you seem pretty active. Are you by chance going to run for office? You seem to be making the most sense so far. Right now I think we should be discussing who is going to run for office and what plans they have. This Sherrif role seems kinda funky I don't really understand it. Would be great if someone could make some sense of that blasted contraption. Also can clue checks find out the godfather? I'm really afraid of the godfather. How can we find them out without a rolecheck. On January 20 2010 14:48 DoctorHelvetica wrote: I guess I might as well run for mayor/sheriff. If I'm elected mayor, I will most likely lynch ghote, unless someone turns out to be more suspicious. As far as the position of sheriff is concerned, the power of incarceration is pretty important. The problem is the possibility of incarcerating a blue like a medic/detective/vig I wouldn't incarcerate indiscriminately to avoid something like that as much as possible. | ||
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There are also 5 other mafia not described in clues from this post, keep that in mind. Also, who all is running? t_co (platform is mafia experience) myself (platform is going along with the town, being very active) meeple (platform isn't really anything at all) citi.zen (platform is going along with the town/being helpful) | ||
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forgot about that one. | ||
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Also if he incarcerates a "townie" and mafia killpower decreases that night, that's a good indicator they might be mafia. However, revealing yourself as a blue to the sheriff would be disastrous for the town if the sheriff was mafia. Luckily if that was the case and we suddenly started seeing extreme amounts of blues being hit, we can suspect the sheriff and lynch him. | ||
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On January 21 2010 01:55 [NyC]HoBbes wrote: Wow, I log back on and suddenly I'm top suspect... fun. Only thing I'll say in my defense is that out of Calvin and Hobbes in the cartoon, Hobbes comes off at least 90% of the time as the exact opposite of Calvin's Loud/barbaric. Even though he's the tiger, he's usually the laid-back, philosophical one. That is true, except when Hobbes attacks Calvin every time he comes home from school. I'm not saying you're for sure mafia. I think we're all reluctant here to be too certain of any accusation with clues this vague. | ||
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t_co had a nice banner but he just kinda popped in to say "vote for me" and then left. I don't want to say it's extremely suspicious behavior but if the mafia were trying to nab an elected position that would be one way of doing it. | ||
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But if we get a mafia sheriff, that'll be a big problem. | ||
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On January 21 2010 02:25 DoctorHelvetica wrote: can you change your votes? i think you can until the deadline although I'm not sure 3. You can not autochange your vote to the losing or winning bandwagon. nvm | ||
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I think in order to win against the mafia, the town will need to take some risks. | ||
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On January 21 2010 02:33 dreamflower wrote: Yes, you can change your vote until the deadline. Just make a new post in the voting thread stating who you want to vote for, and your vote will be switched onto that person when we tally up all the votes. oh alrighty then. I'm waiting for my vote till near the end, someone else might come up with a convincing campaign. Otherwise, I'll probably vote for meeple. | ||
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Hm. StimiLant would fit both the tea and the enraged/stimualted behavior of the first guy. I kind of like that. | ||
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On January 21 2010 03:58 789 wrote: I think we need to go more into outter space. I accuse myself ... let's see uh... there number of victims last night was 3, and there are 3 numbers in my name. That's concrete proof that I'm mafia, lynch me up boys. But yeah, whoever the mayor ends up being doesn't have much to go on for the first lynching. Hopefully day 2 will have some nice clues for us. lol. well, the mayor will go with whoever fits best. I'd say that is hobbes at this point, maybe stimilant. On January 21 2010 03:57 citi.zen wrote: Waw, going back over your post Hyperbola I find nothing useful there! You leave out important things others already said and seem to go on these side-lines without any apparent reason. I mean, after all the conversations we've had, for bad guy one you offer this: I am puzzled. I think he's trying to add new speculation rather than pontificate on old ones. We've already said about everything there is to say about hobbes/ghote/etc. at this point, so it's good that he is avoiding redundancy. | ||
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I was asking if that is the case based on how we see things now. I'm fully aware the mayors lynch is a long ways away and that speculation could radically change by then. I'm not trying to push Hobbes here, I'm just trying to keep track of what the current town consensus is. | ||
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There are 7 mafia not 8 btw | ||
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On January 21 2010 04:46 citi.zen wrote: That's a good point. Does this mean mafiosi are more likely to bandwagon to "blend in"? Possibly. If a mafia is running, he will get a nice pad of mafia votes. However, there are more townies than mafia so keep that in mind. I like t_co's assertion that late votes may be the ones that are mafia votes. If we end up finding out later that a mafia/sheriff was mafia, that's when we should go back to the original voting records. Until then, I don't think we can get anything valuable out of it. | ||
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I'm keeping track of everyone who was suspected and why in notepad so near the end I guess I'll post something comprehensive and maybe the mayor can make his pick on what we all agree is the most solid connection. | ||
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And the detective can't just come out and say "derp im a detective and i rolechecked Ng5 and yeah he's mafia." 1. Why should the town believe him? He could be mafia trying to divert attention away from a real mafia member. 2. If he is a real detective, the mafia will probably kill him that night. | ||
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Also, a mafia mayor may do that, since mafia killpower will still be 3 regardless of whether there are 6 or 7 mafia left. | ||
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On January 21 2010 07:02 citi.zen wrote: We've sort of agreed that the mayor will lynch the consensus pick or face massive suspicion. This limits their ability to play the lynching card, regardless of whether they are mafia or not. The immunity they gain, on the other hand, is important. At any rate, I offered my opinions for this round, voted in the election, I guess time to lay back until more information is forthcoming. I think the most important power of the mayor is their three votes. They can powerfully influence the lynch vote and this would be very helpful for the mafia. It's been said before, but the Mayor really needs to justify his voting choices and represent the wishes of the town. | ||
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The potential danger is getting in a pm ring/im conversation with a mafia member, which could be really bad. | ||
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On January 21 2010 07:10 789 wrote: The inactive people could end up being mod killed anyway. exactly | ||
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The mafia will kill him if any of his list is true, but if his list is bullshit they'll keep him alive because they want us to suspect innocent townies. So let's keep that in mind. | ||
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the mafia are aware of eachother. look at the example pm in the op. | ||
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I voted for meeple, I think he'll do fine. He seems pretty level-headed and analytical and I don't have any reason to believe he is mafia. | ||
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On January 21 2010 08:06 t_co wrote: This, coming from the same person who said seems kind of odd. I find this sudden tightness between meeple and DH kind of suspicious. But the main topic here should be that we should lynch the mayor regardless of whether we think he is mafia or not. The mayor role is actually quite overpowered compared to the sheriff, but the power only helps if the mayor is mafia. Consider that the extra three votes of the mayor don't really start kicking in until later in the game, when vote total gets smaller and smaller. By then, most of the bodyguards may be dead. If the mayor is town, then the mafia can kill him. If the mayor is mafia, the mafia get an additional 2 votes to use when there aren't that many actives left. In this case, the mayor is a pretty useless role for the town to keep and should be lynched ASAP. It would also allow the meeple DH duo to be verified, as if one of the two shows up clean, the other ought to be clean as well. Tightness? I just voted for him. He didn't really have a specific reason that he gave as to why people should vote for him, that doesn't mean I don't think he fits the position. He's active, has been mostly objective, and I don't have any reason to suspect him as mafia. If the town is going to lynch the mayor right away then no one will want to run lol | ||
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As far as lynching the mayor or not, that's really going to scare anyone who is running. I also find it strange that you are proposing to immediately lynch the mayor when you are running for elected positions yourself. | ||
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The mafia will probably kill you anyway right? So what do you have to lose? | ||
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Abenson - Voted for meeple Ghote- Voted for meeple StimiLant - Voted for t_co Bill Murray - Voted for citi.zen, changed to meeple magicbullet - Voted for t_co 789 - Voted for t_co, changed to DoctorHelvetica flamewheel91 - Voted for DoctorHelvetica CynanMachae - Voted for DoctorHelvetica Keit - Voted for DoctorHelvetica Faronel - Voted for t_co DoctorHelvetica - Voted for meeple citi.zen - Voted for me, changed to meeple tredmasta - Voted for DoctorHelvetica derfboy - Voted for DoctorHelvetica [NyC]Hobbes - Voted for meeple Ser Aspi - Voted for DoctorHelvetica meeple - Voted for DoctorHelvetica 17/34 voted, 17 left to go. | ||
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it's a list so you can verify it's authenticity by checking the voting thread. | ||
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he claims to have a theory about who FOUR of the mobsters are. There are only clues toward two, yet he has a theory for 4 out of the 7 mobsters. He won't post the list to help us speculate and now he is provoking the mafia to kill him. After asking the mafia to kill him he announced candidacy to avoid getting killed? I don't even understand the logic from either the townie or mafia side. If he releases the information and he gets killed, part of the town will assume his information was good and that's why he was silenced and the other part will assume the mafia is using reverse psychology. Either way, the mafia can create confusion. So if he isn't mafia and he releases that information, the mafia has no reason not to kill him. If he is Mafia, I don't really see what he's trying to do. Cause panic? I'm reluctant to paint anyone red right now, but perhaps t_co? Firstly, he is trying to draw a connection between me and meeple that is pretty transparent. It seems to me (I could be wrong, I really would like to hear a bit more of t_co's reasoning here) that he is trying to cause mistrust? Also, he put the most effort into his campaign for mayor/sheriff and now he is saying we should lynch the mayor no matter who it is, which seems awfully strange to me. If he is mafia, this all makes sense. He can convince the town to get rid of the mayor who has three votes, which would really help the mafia out by reducing town voting power. Also the mafia could be trying to breed distrust toward who they see as active/dangerous townies. Going off of clues, I'd say [NyC]Hobbes is the most likely, but even that is pretty iffy. | ||
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In other words, who should the mayor lynch? | ||
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On January 21 2010 11:27 Zona wrote: no, the mafia won't automatically kill anyone who has the best suspicions - that can help strengthen whatever suspicions that player posted. Of course, the take it a level beyond, maybe the mafia will kill anyone with the best suspicions, because we as a town don't assume they will kill whoever has the best suspicions. But yes, that t_co thing is fishy. I am in favor of lynching him, since at this point we don't necessarily have any better targets. The Mafia, with 3 kill power, can merely kill people of all different sentiments to make it unclear who may have been right or wrong. | ||
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It says in the op, mayor wins second place in "the election" and sheriff wins first. So there is no running for anything specific : / | ||
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there are too many reasons why someone could change their vote or vote in the first place, it just isn't ground to start painting people red over. now, I think Bill Murray's comment can be explained by the fact that meeple announced his candidacy very quietly in the vote thread whereas everyone else made a much bigger deal of it. | ||
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On January 21 2010 12:29 citi.zen wrote: The fact is we must lynch someone, these are the rules. It is simply a matter of who is the best candidate. Exactly. Also, when does the day end? 9pm est tomorrow? | ||
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1. The mafia probably won't go all-in on one candidate. More than likely they will spread their votes to cause confusion. Meaning if we find out that a mafia voted for someone that isn't really a good indicator that they were a mafia candidate. 2. If all candidates appear to be innocent, then their voting histories aren't very telling. However, if we have other reasons to believe they might be mafia, then their voter histories will become important. 3. If one of the candidates is mafia, that doesn't incriminate everyone who voted for them, rather we should compare those voters to all the clues and scrutinize their posting histories. However, at the moment, I don't see much information being gleaned from voting history. I do, however, see potential information being gleaned from it. On January 21 2010 12:27 Incognito wrote: Vote update: meeple: (8) Abenson DoctorHelvetica BillMurray citi.zen [NyC]HoBbes Jayme Zona Mystlord citi.zen: (1) Hyperbola t_co: (4) magicbullet Faronel StimiLant kane]deth[ DoctorHelvetica: (13) 789 meeple flamewheel91 CynanMachae keit tredmasta derfboy Ser Aspi meeple The_Master Fallen_Ark Jugan dinmsab If anything is wrong here, please let me know. | ||
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Actually, I would vote to lynch Hobbes over you since he at least has connection to the clues. Do I trust you? No. Am I hellbent on getting you lynched? Not even. Because some people in the town agree or trust eachother you're trying to point fingers already and you're being extremely aggressive about it. | ||
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On January 21 2010 12:45 t_co wrote: Note that what DoctorH is basically saying here is that he and meeple will scrutinize anyone who votes for me. This is politicking at its best and shows that they are the real ones who are trying to split the town. Note that that is complete bullshit and what I'm saying is that we should not scrutinize voters until we have good information on one of the candidates that points toward them being mafia. I don't think we should lynch anyone who doesn't have a clue pointing toward them at least. | ||
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On January 21 2010 12:44 t_co wrote: I find it highly suspicious that meeple/DoctorH/Bill/citi.zen are cross-referencing and cross-posting each other so much. Note that they all began to cross-post (and offer each other support) right after the role PMs were announced, implying that they began the game trusting each other. WHY? Why would they do that? I find it funny that somehow me trying to push for a strategy that can keep the mafia from being able to use the mayor's office against the town is grounds for suspicion. Note that I am the only person who has not called for ANYONE to be lynched. I keep reminding people that it's too early in the game to lynch, and somehow this is suspicious? So I ran for sheriff, and now citi.zen, DoctorH, and meeple have explicitly stated that they will do whatever it takes to keep me out of office. Doesn't this strike anyone as odd? Why would those three band together and trust one another so soon? And it's not like I was losing badly when I made the post calling for a mayor lynch--I was only down 1 vote. In fact, if you guys elect me mayor, lynch me. Although that probably won't happen because the DoctorH/meeple's gang, once they become mayor, seem hellbent on making me the Day 1 lynch. Needless to say if I flip green/blue then doctorH/meeple are in doubt. They should be lynched but I doubt that will happen if they are elected sheriff/mayor as they can simply outvote and, sadly, outpost the inactives. In response to the bolded section. The mayor HAS to lynch someone. Do you not understand this? Someone is getting lynched. So, yes of fucking course we should be discussing who should be lynched. | ||
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1)t_co is lynched and turned red 2)t_co is lynched and turned blue or green In the first scenario, then I guess we should start by comparing people who voted for him/defended him against clues and such. Not much else to do at that point. If he turns blue/green that's much more interesting. For one, his theory about meeple/me/citi.zen being in some sort of alliance will be given a bit more credence. I still think we should lynch hobbes. I'm reluctant to take too risky a move on the first day. if t_co is a townie or a blue, he is clearly very aggressive and active and that is the kind of person I want on the towns side, even if he suspects me. I think we should play it safe until we get some more information from the second day. | ||
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On January 21 2010 13:03 Bill Murray wrote: stimilant both voted for t_co and fits a clue, that's a double whammy if i ever saw one I don't think so really. Hobbes voted for meeple, right? | ||
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On January 21 2010 13:07 blue_arrow wrote: this is getting pretty funny, especially from my perspective and I am still unsure as to who to vote for; however, i'm in support of the future mayor lynching hobbes; as DH said, he's our best guess right now why is it "especially" from your perspective? | ||
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On January 21 2010 13:09 Bill Murray wrote: hobbes voted for meeple after it was clear that t_co wasn't going to win, yes. what's your point? Just because stimilant might fit a clue doesn't incriminate t_co imo since more suspicious people have voted for other candidates | ||
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On January 21 2010 13:16 Zona wrote: Okay, I think that makes sense. But if all three of you, meeple, and t_co is townie (as you seem to be assuming), then he's prime material for a night 1 kill, since that would throw suspicion on you two. The mafia can create almost any situation they want based on who they kill. The mafia are getting a lot of information about how they could play with our heads during the night phase right now. the more objective we are, the less room we give the mafia to fuck with the town psychologically | ||
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On January 21 2010 13:07 blue_arrow wrote: this is getting pretty funny, especially from my perspective and I am still unsure as to who to vote for; however, i'm in support of the future mayor lynching hobbes; as DH said, he's our best guess right now Do you mind explaining this part of what you said here? It kind of stood out and bothered me a little bit. | ||
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If that is your idea of mega strong support then I don't know what to say. Just because we were all active in the beginning doesn't even remotely imply that we had prior coordination, what the fuck. It implies we are in the same time-zone maybe. I don't have intense trust in meeple, citi.zen, or anyone besides myself. But I can't vote for myself, so I voted for meeple since he was the most active aside from me at the time. I think you are reading way too hard into this, but you seem pretty set on the idea that me and meeple are in some unholy alliance. | ||
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On January 21 2010 14:04 t_co wrote: addendum: If you lynch me first and I flip green, then you have to deal with a sheriff and mayor that BOTH might be mafia. But if you vote me in as mayor and DrH as sheriff, then this problem does not arise, and furthermore, by lynching meeples, you instantly know between DrH and I who is the remaining mafia. No, you won't learn anything. If I'm lynched and flip red, this doesn't incriminate meeple at all. Meeple hasn't been active at all during all this recent drama and I only voted for him because he was active at the time. If meeple flips red, he hasn't really said anything to defend me or incriminate you so I think it has less to do with me or citi.zen being possibly red than with the mafia trying to nag mayor. If you flip red, we don't really learn that much either. I think all this speculation is pretty groundless, at least Hobbes has some ground in the clues. | ||
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On January 21 2010 14:09 Bill Murray wrote: i hope 789 is mafia, and isn't sub-100 IQ I think 789 is just playing terribly, not mafia. | ||
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what do you mean a free pass. I voted for him because he was inactive. I'm not voting for you because your arguments are stupid and you're pointing fingers all over the fucking place. Voting for meeple does not mean I support him 100% and he is my best friend. I voted for him because he has been objective and had a cool attitude, in opposition to you who has been very aggressive. | ||
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lol | ||
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On January 21 2010 14:37 Ace wrote: hahahahahaha @ Doctor Meeples Is this the new Brangelina? | ||
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On January 21 2010 14:43 t_co wrote: You earlier said you vote for people who are actively participating. Now you say you voted for him because he's inactive. So which is it? Why, exactly, are you voting for him? Can you cite one logical reason why? All he did was post regarding why we should lynch hobbes and then left. You would imagine that in all this posting regarding him, he would at least say something. But instead, you come here and defend him and he remains silent. Why? And now he doesn't even post; that's very strange. If he's so objective and has such a cool attitude, then why isn't he coming into the thread to calm everyone down? If he wants to lead the town he should at least do it now. whoah that was a typo. I meant to say "I voted for him because he was active.", my mistake. I explained many times why I voted for him. He was active from the beginning and was helpful in analyzing the clues. As far as to why he's being inactive for the past few hours. He could be out with his friends, working, sleeping, playing starcraft, playing some other video game, at a family event. A player not posting for 24 hours might be suspicious, not for the last couple pages lol | ||
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i don't know why you think it is relevant that he hasn't been posting for the past few hours during 1 am where he lives. | ||
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I'm sure as soon as he has time he will start posting and he will certainly be responding to all this mess. We have a looooot of time left in the day | ||
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Besides, why would he incriminate himself by being inactive this whole time especially if he's part of some unholy alliance with me and citi.zen? it wouldn't make any sense. The end of Day 1 is a ways away, meeple will return and respond to all of this shit | ||
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Why don't we just lynch t_co and end this drama? Even if he's green, he's just dividing the town and causing distraction from the facts/clues. Also, like citi.zen said, it'll give us some information to go off of on the next day. | ||
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On January 22 2010 02:12 789 wrote: Well ultimately, it appears who we lynch will be meeple's decision. I still advocate hobbes off the strength of clues, but ending the drama would also be a nice outcome. Also : T_co seems to advocate his own lynching for some reason. I don't think the mob would set up a sacrifice like that on day 1. If they were trying to use t_co to cause disruption, killing him would just end the disruption and give the town a lead. If he isn't mafia, which I think is more likely, he sure is doing them a favor by pointing fingers haphazardly. | ||
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On January 22 2010 02:14 meeple wrote: I dunno whether to advocate Hobbes or t_co... Hobbes fits the clues, but t_co has done nothing productive and just spreading useless misinformation Well, we can double lynch hobbes and someone else on day 2? I think we should resolve this drama as soon as possible. | ||
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Hopefully we can get something stronger than the connection to hobbes/keit to work with ;o. | ||
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t_co flips red Where do we go from there? t_co flips green or blue Or here? The second possibility seems more likely to me, what does the rest of the town think? | ||
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if t_co turns green that doesn't really mean anything about me or meeple. It's pretty obvious the "alliance" between me and meeple is completely fabricated. None of us ever attacked him early on, he started making a fuss all by himself and pointing fingers with pretty much no ground under it. All that means is that if he's mafia, his role was obviously to divide the town/cause distrust. If he isn't mafia then he's just causing trouble (which benefits the mafia in the end) I could just say "oh if I die and turn green, that means Ng5 is red" but it doesn't. | ||
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We've been going on this whole shitstorm assuming someone running for office is red. The mafia could see that and just think "well wouldn't it really fuck with them if none of us ran? They'll tear each other apart and probably end up lynching their elected candidates" That's kind what is happening too. | ||
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Perhaps we should all cool down and worry about the mayors lynch and perhaps speculate as to who the mafia might kill? That could be a great help to anyone who is a medic | ||
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There is the problem of how the DT will communicate that result though ; / | ||
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On January 22 2010 03:16 meeple wrote: That's difficult... any person can just "say" they're a dt Yeah. Well, if a DT roleclaims and then paints Hobbes or someone else based on a clue/role-check and it flips a different color, then we know that DT is probably mafia trying to spread misinformation and we can lynch them. | ||
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On January 22 2010 03:19 citi.zen wrote: Well, the mayor or sheriff cannot be role checked by a detective. Also, they can put people in jail (to silence or protect them) and they get extra votes. So it seems pretty valuable for the mob to have elected official(s). Running with "mob support" could be easier if you can build some sort of critical mass + confusion and wait for people to bandwagon. I am not saying that is what happened, just that it would be worth a shot, if you were the mob. Finally, removing non-mob officials from office is hard for the mob initially, because the bodyguards are alive. So if they do not get elected, the mob could have to live with an "honest" official for a while. Just a few thoughts. Of course, there is a chance I am wrong and they were indeed very patient. Right. I'm just proposing the possibility, we should consider everything before jumping to conclusions. Personally, I think it's likely that at least one of the candidates is mafia. Which includes: Myself t_co Meeple citi.zen Nikoner Ng5 | ||
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On January 22 2010 05:13 citi.zen wrote: Good questions but not sure I have any answers. For example, the medic could inadvertently save a lynched mobster, no? Medics can't save anyone from being lynched. | ||
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On January 22 2010 09:46 Mystlord wrote: I think it's in our best interests to not let t_co become mayor or sheriff. His arguments are incoherent and shaky at best, and we'd be shooting ourselves in the foot if we elected someone who probably won't follow the public opinion on who to lynch. At the very least, even if we don't lynch t_co, do not let him go into office. I highly doubt there is any sort of alliance between meeple and DrH. It seems to merely be a straw man argument that everyone has bought into. This is exactly how I feel. | ||
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On January 22 2010 09:32 Zona wrote: t_co is a relatively open book, if he is a mafia. Right now the low-key mafia is of bigger concern to me - we have a few more days to lynch t_co if he becomes a problem, before his power becomes dominant. (And yes I do agree that the triple vote is more powerful, in fact I was the first person to express this sentiment.) Right now I want to make sure we don't all easily agree with each other day 2, and so far for whatever reason DrH and meeple buy each others' arguments. Buy eachothers arguments that what? What argument are we both making that we agree with? We started off disagreeing on who was most suspicious based on the clues. We agree that t_co shouldn't be mayor and we agree that there is no connection between us. I bet you and I would also agree that we are not part of a secret mafia team. That doesn't mean anything. | ||
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t_co's actions: 1. runs for elected positions 2. votes for himself which he can't do 3. starts losing, then accuses me and meeple of being mafia and allied 4. says we shouldn't lynch anyone day 1 5. urges the town to lynch the mayor no matter who it is 6. again pushes the doctorhelvetica/meeple alliance 7. can provide zero evidence of said alliance 8. says we should lynch people at random What is this doing besides confusing and disrupting? Here is an example of positive disagreement. Player X: I think these clues point toward Player A being mafia? Player Y: I disagree, I think the clues fit Player B more. That isn't what t_co has been doing. He's been changing his arguments multiple times. He has said twice not to lynch anyone day 1, even after being informed that the mayor HAS to lynch someone, says he hasn't been called for anyone to be lynched after saying that the town needs to lynch the mayor, and points fingers with no basis for his accusations. I know it seems like all the town is on one side, but that isn't the case. We've been having rational disagreements on who the mayor should lynch from day 1, who the clues point to, and what information we can get from various lynchings. That is the kind of disagreement that will help the town move forward. | ||
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Abenson - Voted for Meeple Ghote- Voted for Meeple StimiLant - Voted for t_co Bill Murray - Voted for citi.zen, changed to meeple magicbullet - Voted for t_co 789 - Voted for t_co, changed to DoctorHelvetica, changed back to t_co, then abstained flamewheel91 - Voted for DoctorHelvetica CynanMachae - Voted for DoctorHelvetica Keit - Voted for DoctorHelvetica Faronel - Voted for t_co DoctorHelvetica - Voted for meeple citi.zen - Voted for DoctorHelvetica, changed to meeple tredmasta - Voted for DoctorHelvetica derfboy - Voted for DoctorHelvetica [NyC]Hobbes - Voted for meeple Ser Aspi - Voted for t_co meeple - Voted for DoctorHelvetica Jayme - Voted for meeple Zona - Voted for meeple, changed to t_co, changed to abstain Hyperbola - Voted for citi.zen kane]deth[ - Voted for t_co The_Master - Voted for DoctorHelvetica Mystlord - Voted for meeple Fallen_arK - Voted for DoctorHelvetica Jugan - Voted for DoctorHelvetica, changed to meeple dinmsab - Voted for DoctorHelvetica skronch - Voted for t_co, edited to DoctorHelvetica Nikoner - Voted for t_co, changed to DoctorHelvetica Ng5 - Abstained from voting Phrujbaz - Voted for t_co t_co - Abstained from voting | ||
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t_co - Voted for self, discounted, chose to abstain | ||
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If we're not going to lynch t_co, lynch Hobbes since at least he is connected to clues. | ||
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On January 22 2010 10:29 meeple wrote: It's getting down to the wire guys... can everyone please put their choice and perhaps a short blurb describing why? t_co - If he is Mafia, then that puts faronel under suspicion, not the other way around. If he isn't mafia, it gives us some new perspective. Regardless, his irrational arguments and accusations have done nothing but divide and hurt the town. | ||
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2.5 rounded up is 3 | ||
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On January 22 2010 10:36 Nikoner wrote: Well, it's not that the list is incorrect, the thing is that at the bottom of page 3, after two consecutive votes for t_co, by Ser Aspi and me respectively, 789 was quick to change his vote to t_co, who at that point looked like he might get into office if the bandwagon kept going. ah ^^ | ||
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On January 22 2010 11:06 Abenson wrote: This mafia game is really beneficial ![]() I just realized that my post count is going way up :D to a grand total of 24 slow down speed racer | ||
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So this pretty much clears up faronel eh? | ||
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On January 22 2010 11:11 Bill Murray wrote: it doesn't clear up anyone logically... faronel was suspected on the grounds of both him and t_co being red right? this should clear up the majority of suspicion surrounding him imo | ||
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On January 22 2010 11:12 blue_arrow wrote: i think somebody has to pay the consequences for the turn of events here what happened between hobbes being the solid choice to t_co suddenly getting wtfpwned? by glancing through the last two dozen or so pages that i missed, it appears that t_co was lynched because he was aggravating people? am i right or wrong here? He was lynched because he was playing overly aggressive. He was pointing fingers and making accusations with zero evidence, which hurts the town whether he's mafia or not. | ||
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On January 22 2010 11:15 Ser Aspi wrote: This says nothing at all about Faronel. But on that note people shouldn't rebound onto you or meeple either. This lynch gave 0 information. I'm rather disgruntled. Whatever, i'll just go clue analyze myself again my ideas are worthless anyway. People suspected Faronel of being red for his early/groundless support of t_co. Why would he behave that way, as mafia, if t_co himself wasn't mafia? | ||
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On January 22 2010 11:16 meeple wrote: Are all games of Mafia this intense? When I played in high school this was fun... now it seems personal I read through Mafia XV and it was really intense. Hopefully things can calm down a bit now. I think the fact that we're posting anonymously over the internet factors in to how aggressive people are willing to be. | ||
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On January 22 2010 11:25 meeple wrote: Well... hopefully our next choices are better. Sorry guys still a good choice imo | ||
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On January 22 2010 11:28 citi.zen wrote: I was the primary accuser of t_co (and of Hobbes for that matter). As I stated before, I still think this was the correct lynching. Him being green makes it likely in my mind that another candidate was mafia: myself, DrH, meeple, 789. I'm starting to think that all the candidates are green/blue and that the mafia were satisfied with the disruption happening anyway. After all, why would mafia want mayor/sheriff when the town has been saying for pages now that those two people are going to be scrutinized the most? Let's say myself/meeple/you is mafia. Any mafia member would have known t_co is green and that lynching him would cast suspicion on one of us. So I think anyone in the mafia would have either tried to convince the town not to lynch t_co (assuming the mafia has a candidate) or dropped out of the race altogether. | ||
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On January 22 2010 11:31 Bill Murray wrote: i want someone to vouch for the fact that i'm not red... would probably be wasteful, though, as unless a medic saves me i'm going to be gone in 24 hours I don't see what the mafia has to gain from killing you. | ||
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789 - Originally voted for t_co, then changed to me, then back to t_co, then abstained. Zona- Voted for meeple, changed to t_co, abstained, changed back to meeple | ||
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Who knows. It depends on what the mafia wants to accomplish. Hopefully the medics will make good decisions and cover different people. There needs to be some good method for blue coordination. | ||
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1) How are blues going to coordinate/communicate with the town? 2) How should myself as Sheriff and meeple as Mayor best use our powers to benefit the town? My role is basically useless, except as an impromptu medic. I will announce beforehand if I plan on incarcerating someone so medics can avoid covering that person, but it would also suck if I incarcerated a blue player : / As far as meeple's voting power, I think he really needs to justify his votes. | ||
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On January 22 2010 13:16 QuickStriker wrote: Tsk tsk.... it seems you guys made a hugeeeeeeeeeeeeeee mistake voting off a falsely accused mafia.... so how are Town B going so far?? ^_^ Some people feel it was a mistake. Others (including myself) feel that it's best to get rid of someone causing that much confusion and pointless bickering regardless of their color. | ||
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One detective has roleclaimed to me in PM. I won't say who in public, obviously, to prevent the mafia from obtaining that information. | ||
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On January 22 2010 14:17 Zona wrote: Yes - but if the detective has checked someone to be town, the detective can reveal him/herself safely to the person he/she has checked. (Of course, the person being revealed to needs to be skeptical, as the "detective" who contacted them might be a mafia member.) That's too risky. A mafia pretending to be detective would have to pray that they guessed the role right. Let's say Ng5 PMs me and says "I rolechecked you and you were green, can you help me communicate with the town" and I'm actually a medic, I can be pretty sure he is mafia at that point. I think if a mafia is going to fake being detective, they'll do it in public or roleclaim to avoid a lynch. | ||
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On January 23 2010 02:57 StimiLant wrote: heh good luck to the blues in town, may the force be with you !_! That's about right. Especially the medics. I'm worried they'll both protect the same person. Then again, the mafia is closely watching who we want protected and may choose to just kill off others on the chance they might hit a blue. | ||
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On January 23 2010 02:53 StimiLant wrote: that would be very ideal but i highly doubt it, the luck factor is too great imo. three hits gives many clues but how good would they be? Well, at least that's something with ground. If we're going to be lynching this early in the game, ideally we should be able to connect clues with suspicious behavior. | ||
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If mafia KP is total number of mafia/2 rounded up, wouldn't their kp be 4? or does it, hopefully, cap at 3. 7/2=3.5 rounded up is 4. | ||
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On January 23 2010 05:30 StimiLant wrote: 7 of 7 Mafia remain (this includes the Godfather) 1 of 1 Godfather remains Mafia KP = (# of Mafia / 2) rounded up. Max KP = 3, Min KP = 1 Current Mafia KP = 3 ok, that's good. | ||
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I'm a bit nervous : / | ||
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On January 23 2010 08:18 citi.zen wrote: You have bodyguard protection. I wish people were a bit more careful in their PMs. That is the biggest takeaway thus far: just be careful. I'm not nervous about being killed, I'm nervous to see the clues and who the mafia will choose. It's the anticipation. I'm also nervous because of Flash/JD coming up tonight :o | ||
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I'll take a close read through the clues and see what I come up with. | ||
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flamewheel91 commiting the first murder. His photo appears to be of an olympian runner. Not only does that explain the incredibly fast running, but also the specific adjective "olympian" | ||
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I'm gonna say flamewheel is the most suspicious to me personally, based on clues alone. | ||
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Original Message: Because people are trying to get me to trust them, and I want to make sure I'm not being played. I'm sure I can convince you that I'm not mafia if you have any doubts. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Why do you ask? ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Did Bill Murray reveal himself to you as a detective?" | ||
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Which one of Zona's posts? Speaking of Zona, Bill Murray mentioned him in a pm he sent me. I responded but he never got back to replying. "first: if you don't trust me 100%, assign a percentage. second: what are your thoughts on zona?" | ||
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On January 23 2010 12:39 meeple wrote: Why would Bill Murray lie about that? He has nothing to lose if he's already dead. I'm not saying it's good the way he told us, by talking after death, but I'm not gonna pretend I didn't read it. There were 26 people for the mafia to choose from and they somehow got lucky and nailed a bodyguard and a detective? One of the people Bill Murray told was mafia, and he's already confirm citi.zen wasn't, and we have no proof of Jugan (regardless he doesn't fit any of the clues so far)... and then there's you. Bill Murray has been a potential mafia target for a while, and he confirmed that himself multiple times. He was begging for medic protection in the thread for a long time. This doesn't instantly incriminate me, or incriminate citi.zen as the godfather. | ||
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On January 23 2010 12:45 meeple wrote: When he was begging for protection, everyone took it as a joke... at least, everyone who didn't know he was a detective He clearly though of himself as a mafia target. Why would the mafia hit citi.zen, zona, or someone like that when medics more than likely covered them? Bill Murray begs for medic protection, isn't taken seriously, and along with what Jugan says "that he's been stirring things up behind the scenes" it doesn't seem so strange to me that an intelligent mafia could have suspected him as a blue from that information alone. It's even better than no one took him seriously, since the mafia would then assume no medics will actually protect him. I think we should focus on the clues we received for now. | ||
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On January 23 2010 12:46 meeple wrote: And how are we supposed to trust these pms? Jugan already denied his Jugan didn't deny that we sent those pm's to eachother. | ||
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"honestly, i trust you 3rd of the players (behind citi.zen and someone else), and i trust you more than meeple. i trust him 4th or 5th. that being said, there is no way for me to rolecheck you. if you or meeple are red, i expect you both to be, and the game is already essentially lost. if you're both red, you will probably not kill me, as i trust you all more than the opposition. " So there was someone else he was talking to in pm besides me and citi.zen it seems. Although I have no idea who. I would guess Zona if I had to since BM asked me what I thought of Zona, but that's not for sure. | ||
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On January 23 2010 12:51 meeple wrote: ok... still I don't think its a coincedence. But I'll focus on the clues from today Well, regardless of what you personally think, there are numerous objective reasons why the mafia might have hit him from the information he revealed in public. As far as the clues, you're thinking Hobbes? I'm not sure about that. It seems strange he would be referred to in clues on both days. flamewheel91 is my best guess for the time being. | ||
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On January 23 2010 13:04 citi.zen wrote: Jayme has a cat, Hobbes the tiger, Hyperbola a squid (?) Could kane]deth[ by a suspect for Bill killing too? kane = sledge-hammer, used to kill Bill? kane]deth[ = death by sledgehammer? that fits a little bit. I still think we should lynch flamewheel91 today and then hold off on a double lynch until it can reduce mafia kp | ||
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On January 23 2010 13:08 meeple wrote: Why should we hold off if we have two fairly solid leads? If we keep holding it off the mafia are going to run down our numbers too much Well we lynch one today and two during the next day right? I'm pretty sure the rules say we have to call for a doublelynch a day in advance. So would we lynch flamewheel now and then hobbes/keit tomorrow? | ||
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On January 23 2010 13:09 StimiLant wrote: the count so far is 24 town left minus 7 which is 17 green/blue now, i think if my maths correct 34 total 7/34 is mafia 34 - 7 is 27 and 4 town members died, so there are 23 to 7 town : mafia | ||
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On January 23 2010 13:16 meeple wrote: What if we're using the double lynch tommorow? On January 23 2010 13:15 DoctorHelvetica wrote: I vote to lynch flamewheel91: I also vote to use a double-lynch tomorrow. | ||
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On January 24 2010 06:33 789 wrote: This + Show Spoiler + On January 23 2010 14:31 flamewheel91 wrote: And this is not as strong of a correlation? The mafia could stage a disagreement to throw suspicion off of one or both of them, but it seems unlikely. Right now I feel, barely, that the clues are a bit stronger toward kane but I'm still pretty torn. For the time being, my vote is on kane. | ||
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On January 24 2010 07:22 Ser Aspi wrote: So now I've read a few of the other games here and noticed a few common similarities. I encourage everyone else to do so. Without these games id be as lost as i was in the beginning. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=91680 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=103738 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=89338 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=66251 1. A lot of people discuss clues but they never use them to lynch until day 3 at the earlier. Even the best clue people so far as i can tell don't do much until day 3. Logically it makes sense because if clues early on are too easy then the mafia have no chance as more and more clues pile on. Also a lot of mafia try to hide by posting fake clue analysis. Because clue analysis is mostly speculation unless a master is doing it i dunno how to tell the fake from the legit. We should be careful of anyone who posts only clue analysis to 'blend in.' in the first game on the list a lot of the mafia posted bogus clue analysis and nobody suspected them because of it. Overall The times people were dead set on killing someone based on a clue early on, they were always wrong. After seeing how wrong people were about clues, i don't trust clues this early at all. if you guys read how useless they were in other games, you probably won't either. Most if not all of the people that everyone is bandwagoning on from clues are going to be innocent. Mafia are prolly laughing at us this whole time. 2. The best players seem to catch a lot of mafia either by pms, logic, or traps in the thread. they also use a variety of plans like a list of people that medics can protect or have ways to confirm innocents. i dunno really how to do this but we should at least be trying instead of wasting time on clues. ill think about it some more and post ideas later. We would be wise to learn from the mistakes and successes of those before us. I feel a little confident now after reading all of that :D We already repeated a mistake that's happened a lot in lynching t_co. Let's not fall victim to any more of that. No more worrying about clues! You're making really good points here; I'm convinced for the time being. I'll take back my vote for the double lynch for now. I've been bandwagoning a bit hard right now, I'm still so upset about the MSL finals that I'm having difficulty really thinking about this game, hopefully I'll be able to think about something else besides how much I hate KESPA ![]() Do you have a plan of action? If we hold off on the double-lynch where do we go from here? As far as both trapping mafia and confirming innocents. | ||
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Walking home from the post-election celebration, a slightly tipsy blue_arrow was whistling tunelessly to himself in the violet dusk. After a block or two, he noticed the sound of someone shuffling behind him. Though unnerved, he tried to shrug it off and started walking faster. The shuffling did not speed up in response, and blue_arrow felt safer the further he walked from his follower. As the streetlamps flickered on one by one, he took a quick peek behind him. One glimpse of his follower's frightening appearance was enough to clear his mind and convince him the Mafia was after him. Blue_arrow took off running. Sweat dripped off his forehead and fear spurred him to achieve near-Olympian speed as he sprinted for his life. He flew past several blocks in a few minutes, but always he could hear his attacker plodding relentlessly after him. Finally, the exhausted blue_arrow slumped against a lamppost, so worn out by his headlong dash that he couldn't move another step. All he could do was watch with mounting dread as his entirely unperturbed attacker caught up to blue_arrow and strangled him to death Instead of walking, Bill Murray drove home after the celebrations. When he arrived at his driveway, he was initially startled to see that his garage door had been forced open and didn't find any comfort when he looked within. It appeared as if a wild animal had been let loose inside his garage. Noticing that all the guns on his weapon rack were broken, Bill Murray started to panic. He turned around in a hurry, only to notice a broken rafter fall from the ceiling, landing right next to him. A high-pitched snicker immediately attracted his attention. He anxiously scanned the area, looking for a weapon. From the darkness, a figure appeared just outside the garage, advancing on him with what looked like a sledgehammer. The figure moved quickly, wearing a large helmet resembling an old rusty pail. The figure drew closer, and Bill Murray panicked and ran toward the door. Bill Murray tugged on the door, but it was locked. Bill Murray met his doom as the sledgehammer came down on his skull, ending his life. nothing really stands out to me in the third death scenario :o | ||
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On January 24 2010 07:44 789 wrote: Well, the main reason I'm advocating clues right now is that I'm not sure if we have anyone worth lynching based on something other than clues. If I am wrong, I'd like to hear what people think - who to lynch and why. The best ways I can think to confirm an innocent right now are a medic save and a clue analysis hitting home. Both players involved in a medic will now know eachother are innocent. If a clue analysis hits home - the person who first proposed it is probably innocent. Your point about mafia doing fake clue analysis is certainly valid, but I don't think they would go to the point of incriminating a fellow mafia to appear cooperative. Then again, I could be wrong - the mafia could be being very tricky. That person who did the clue analysis would look clean for a very long time, perhaps indefinitely. It could be wroth sacrificing 1 mafia to ensure longevity of another. As for trapping a mafia, I don't have any surefire ways in mind yet. I'm hoping it ends up being sort of a "know a slip up when I see it" type of thing. Any PMs I have done have been pretty mild and unrevealing. There isn't anything I've said in a PM that I wouldn't have minded sharing openly - and it would appear like the same from the PMs I have received. I agree we should spend sometime giving suggestions to the blues on how to use their abilities. I believe this should be done in the open until we start getting a network of people that know eachother are innocents, like we tried to do in night 1. We can save these sort of discussions for the night phases, as when these are when those abilities are put into action. And finally, I agree with holding off on the double lynch for now. Unless something changes - which is impossible to know at this point, since we don't know what will happen with night 2 and day 3 clues- I don't think we have enough viable suspect to justify one. If someone is saved by a medic, they don't know who that person is. Also, a medic could potentially save a mafia from a hit by a vigilante. The biggest issue is detective communication. I liked the idea of a DT using a rolecheck to communicate through a confirmed green, but there is an issue that slipped my mind at the time. The mafia will simply hit that green to stop DT communication. One medic could cover that person indefinitely, but the mafia could double up hits or the medics may not even do it. The "best" way for a blue to communicate through the town is through an elected role, since neither me or meeple can be hit at night. However, meeple and myself could just as well be mafia so that's an extremely risky move as well. I think the best way for DT's to communicate is this: If a clue-check comes up positive (remember, it could be a vigilante) or a role-check flips mafia, instead of telling someone "Hey I'm a DT and this is what I got, can you tell the town for me since I know you're innocent?" which makes you look suspicious (you could be mafia pretending to be the detective) or putting that person in danger, use the power of hindsight to build a case. If you know 100% someone is mafia, you can look through all their posts, previous clues, and their entire history in the game through the perspective of them being mafia. With that, you can build a really strong case and probably convince the town to lynch said person. | ||
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On January 24 2010 07:47 789 wrote: I agree with these. A few I might add: From the first: "violet dusk" and "plodding relentlessly" From the second: "all the guns on his weapon rack were broken" This one could imply that the killer knew Bill Murray was a detective. This could point to some of the people he divulged his role to via PM - though we don't have a complete list and I doubt people are going to admit to it now. The moderator would have no way of knowing who Bill Murray was PMing with, and it's already been 100% confirmed clues point only toward names, signatures, and profiles. Nothing else. | ||
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If the mafia hits three people tomorrow night, we'll have 2 sets of clues on one person, that'll make our job much easier. | ||
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tredmasta has been extremely inactive, as well as kane]deth[, which imo makes both them more suspicious. Hobbes has been somewhat active, although mostly defensive, but his behavior doesn't come across as suspicious. | ||
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On January 24 2010 09:39 meeple wrote: At this point is there a reason you pick kan]deth[ over tredmasta or the others? I'm personally more convinced by the connection, but it's all pretty close imo | ||
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It's a tough decision we have to make : / | ||
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![]() I need something to take my mind off the abomination that was the msl | ||
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On January 24 2010 13:24 meeple wrote: I wouldn't really risk lynching off inactivity... we can't really afford to lose any green at this point We can't afford to lose blue. The town still outnumber the mafia by a wide margin, but losing more blue at this stage would just be crippling. | ||
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As far as the Day 1 clues, I can't really do anything to dispute that other than say I'm not mafia. If I were, I wouldn't take the risk of being this active. I've made no attempt to hide the fact that Bill Murray was talking to me, or that he was even a detective. All because I know I'm innocent. | ||
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On January 25 2010 02:28 tredmasta wrote: Hey guys, sorry I haven't posted in a while. I was not at home all of yesterday. I saw that I had been suspected, but I think overall, the clues point more to flamewheel91. My name is based off of a treadmill, but nothing else in my profile seems to really fit the clues. I also feel it fits flamewheel91 a lot more than you. I'm a bit inbetween voting for kane/flamewheel/keit atm. | ||
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Upon thinking about it, the clues from day 1 fit Keit the best. The cookie monster is a barbaric creature and the photos in keit's profile specifically show the cookie monster cramming food down his throat. Also, the bug in keit's profile may be a fruit fly, which would explain the apple. There is the clue connection. Keit has been very inactive from day 1, a mafia would do this to avoid suspicion, and he has shown up only to point fingers at me. Since I am protected by bodyguards, it would make sense the mafia would want to direct town suspicion toward me. I am not only the most active poster in the mafia thread, but I can use my incarceration power to limit mafia kill power during critical moments. I have explained and defended my connection to Bill Murray. Not only was he in contact with someone other than myself and citi.zen (who he unfortunately did not name) but he had posted several times in public things that would lead the mafia to guess he is blue. The fact that Jugan guessed that says at least that much. I took a second glance over at his profile and after mulling it over I now feel he is our best bet. | ||
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At least there we can attribute suspicion to behavior AND clues. The clue is also much stronger imo. | ||
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On January 25 2010 08:35 keit wrote: Haha, trust me, this is about something else. My vote for DoctorH made him react just as I'd thought. uh, is it wrong to defend myself? The clues connect to you as well and your behavior is well into the realm of suspiciousness. | ||
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On January 25 2010 11:43 Zona wrote: Man, one thing I really want is for all voters to post why they voted the way they did. If we're going to focus away from clue-based mafia hunting (since it hasn't done us much good so far), this kind of reasoning is the minimum required. Town members, even those with blue powers, need to post more (and never lie, although it's fine to deny knowledge and post suspicions even when you're not sure), so that mafia can't get by without posting. Then mafia who do post might eventually slip up by posting contradictions or lies that they had to make to keep their identity secret. Since I've asked for people to explain their votes, I might as well start. I came to the thread pretty close to the deadline as I was working all afternoon on other things so it was too late to really be influencing outcomes. But since this is something that's a good ploy for mafia members to use, I'll do my best to get in early in the next discussion. I ended up stacking an unnecessary extra vote on kane just to see if the olympic clue really was that straightforward, but it wasn't. I do think we should focus away from clue-based mafia hunting for now. Why I voted the way I did: I voted for kane]deth[ initially because of the evidence meeple posted. However, keits clues from Day 1 and his finger pointing behavior/inactivity convinced me he is more likely mafia than kane. | ||
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On January 25 2010 12:51 JohannesH wrote: Aggressive finger pointing isnt something a mafia would do too much I think. Sure it is. What benefits the mafia more than creating confusion and causing the town to lynch other townies? | ||
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On January 25 2010 12:56 [NyC]HoBbes wrote: I abstained because I had not made up my mind on the clues quite yet, and then got too caught up in the Saints game to change my vote before the deadline What a game huh? Watched it at the local sports bar. Unbelievable. | ||
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On January 25 2010 13:11 flamewheel91 wrote: What was the final score? I heard it was close. + Show Spoiler + Saints 31-28 Vikings. Saints won it with a FG in overtime. | ||
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On January 25 2010 13:11 flamewheel91 wrote: I think it's still hard to say exactly what the mafia is doing, considering the options available to them while they are still under the cover of anonymity. However, it is very viable that those pointing fingers could be mafia agents, especially since: 1) Mafia at this point aren't as afraid of losing members, since their KP remains at 3 until they drop to 4 members and, 2) More town suspicion means less actual fire focused at them. That's true. I find it highly unlikely, though, that a mafia will actually vote for another mafia. Reading through other games and through some articles on the mafiascum wikipedia page, mafia often accuse eachother but very rarely will vote or start a vote bandwagon. I think that's pretty important to keep in mind. Anyone who starts pointing fingers without following through could be up for suspicion. | ||
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On January 25 2010 13:47 [NyC]HoBbes wrote: Half of my family is from New Orleans, they say Bourbon street is going completely batshit insane I'm happy since Brees is a former Charger. It lifted my spirits a bit after the abomination that was Jets/Chargers. | ||
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Remember what happened to t_co? It only makes you look suspicious. Let's all calm down and be objective as possible here. | ||
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From glancing over the clues, the only thing I'm sure of now is that keit is mafia. Not only do the day 1 clues reference him, but the barbaric nature of the third attack as well as the attacker searching for food in the corpses pockets is a clear reference to the cookie monster. His behavior has been somewhat suspicious as well. The first attacker seems stealthy, quick, and vicious. Perhaps like a tiger? Every day, there is something putting at least a little bit of suspicion on Hobbes. | ||
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1. The new clues. I feel based on this that keit is the best choice for a town lynch. 2. The death of both bodyguards. Both myself and meeple are now able to be hit during the night. I would ask medics to cover either one of us. I can also use my incarceration power to protect meeple and a medic can cover me. This way, both of us are guaranteed to be covered tonight and the medics can't make the mistake of both protecting one of us. I'd like it if everyone posted their plan of action, rather then getting right to arguing and drama. We all need to know where we all stand. Feel free to use the same template as I'm using or your own. Who are your top three suspects? 1) keit. I feel the combined clues from today and day 1 strongly point toward him. Assuming the cookie monster is the assailant in both the first scenario of the first day and the third scenario of the third day, it all fits. His posting behavior is almost non-existent. He has been active only to accuse me of being mafia, probably a means by which to divide the town and distract attention away from actual mafia. 2) Hobbes. Not only have several clues from each day pointed toward him, but as some have pointed out: his posting history could be construed as suspicious, although not overwhelmingly so. 3) flamewheel91. The first scenario from day 2 strongly fits him. He has been very hostile in his defense and pretty much just flamed people/started pointing fingers once he was accused. Who do you trust? Only citi.zen. He is the only person confirmed to be green, unless he is the godfather which I find unlikely considering his posting history. Everyone else is potentially mafia. Where does the town go from here? Lynching keit and creating a double lynch for tomorrow. Many people have been suspecting hobbes since day 1, with tomorrows double lynch we can lynch him and another potential mafia. We have the possibility of reducing mafia kp to 2 if we lynch 1 mafia today and 2 tomorrow. | ||
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his posting behavior is more suspicious as well imo | ||
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While the mafia will simply hit 3 other people, this will at least guarantee meeple survives to the next day. | ||
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On January 26 2010 14:42 JohannesH wrote: I'd still prefer incarcerating citi.zen now, since medics mightve protected him last time and cant do that 2 times in a row. Yes theres several medics (i hope so at least :D) but that would seem easier to coordinate to me. And then we might get the chance to incarcerate meeple next turn, if we lynch a 2 mafia in 2 days we can be 100% sure whether hes one of them. Which we dont need to do with citi.zen as far as i see, unless hes the goddamnfather. Where does it say medics can't protect the same person twice in a row? Is that a rule? | ||
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i know right I thought I was going to wake up to like 3-4 new pages of material. | ||
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On January 27 2010 03:33 Ng5 wrote: There's no use of voting when the second day's lynching turned out to be still to random for my taste. When it matters I will vote. If it was a double lynch today I would have voted. But. There's not much use to post too much under current circumstances. Other people are active enough, when I post I just give alternatives without stating opinion. I don't just guess around, and for me to make solid and clear statements I would like to be sure we are getting somewhere at least. Killing two mafia would be getting somewhere, but yesterday I couldn't have convinced anyone to lynch the one I considered the most likely no matter what I had done. And that would have been only one mafia still. Now go ahead and put the wet blanket on me for being cold and counting. I won't even defend myself, so you'll have an easier time. You might have to wait a while for the rest of his argument, since he is dead | ||
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On January 27 2010 04:48 Ng5 wrote: Mystlord eyem the strongest. Very-very weak link. It takes strength to throw someone out the window. But it doesn't to kick the fridge's door on someone. keit Again the only link is showing down an apple down the victim's throat. I don't know much for how barbaric Cookie Monster is, but isn't it far-fetched to call him so? Something not so obvious. meeple Into the fray my friends, may our feet be swift, our hands be sure, and our necks keep a firm grasp on our heads. ... Swift feet... Just how swift should you be to kick the door on someone right as you see they are ducking behind it. Given that Incognito was the quickest to react. And hands sure? How sure (and quick) should hands be to block a knife with an apple. And also, being struck, blocking with an apple and showing it right down their throat - and then throwing them out of the window. The quote itself also seems something you would say before a charge - a far-fetched relation with taunting, but it's still not much more far-fetched than the previous links. Another thing. Maybe there's someone linked to a barbaric/tribal shaman? I have the feeling something is still missing about this barbaric person we haven't uncovered yet. Just a feeling. The Cookie Monster is extremely barbaric. The Cookie Monster constantly goes into raging frenzies where he destroys everything around him in search for cookies. This makes sense as the assailant searches the victims pockets for food after being beaten to death barbarically. Also, the specific picture of the cookie monster in keit's profile shows the cookie monster shoving food down his throat. Also, who does everyone think I should incarcerate? I'm going to incarcerate either meeple or citi.zen | ||
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On January 27 2010 04:50 Ng5 wrote: Also the first guy taunted the ex-leaders with taking the nice little town. Which is another taunt. I can't picture the cookie monster taunting someone. It's more like the hockey zombie now? Eat... his... brain... Except for cookies. I don't think every single aspect of the scenario applies as a clue. | ||
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On January 27 2010 04:52 Ng5 wrote: If he's extremely barbaric he would want to tear the opponent apart and rip them open instead of showing them in the fridge or throwing out the window. Taunting also isn't very brainlessly barbaric... Shoving someone in a fridge and throwing them out the window is a pretty messy and barbaric way to kill someone. Not every sentence in the scenario is a clue, so if you apply literally every "clue" to anyone they wouldn't fit 100%. Otherwise our work would be too easy. | ||
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The third assailant is the same as the first assailant from Day 1, keit. I'm surprised I'm the only one who seems to suspect him, the connection seems so obvious. | ||
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On January 27 2010 07:03 Ng5 wrote: In the first scenario Jayme is considered for the second killer not the first. Don't twist my text. i think we are talking about different days | ||
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That's a bit stronger than a picture of a cat. Tigers are much more ferocious creatures. | ||
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On January 27 2010 08:47 Ng5 wrote: I think it's time to test one of my theories for a change and then draw the conclusions about thought-processes. What? | ||
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Also, who should I incarcerate tonight? I'll be incarcerating meeple as of now, but I am willing to change my mind if the town has a different opinion. | ||
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And I see no reason to suspect anyone over keit. | ||
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That has nothing to do with what we are discussing now. What do the other two quotes have to do with the first one anyway? lol | ||
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On January 27 2010 09:27 ghote wrote: i would like to ask DrH why he voted so soon before night. Why did you vote before the time limit was even close to being over, and possibly some evidence was overlooked. please explain this decision. Because based on the clues from day 1 and 3 I feel that keit is without a doubt mafia. Even after reading Ng5's analysis and various other connections, I feel that keit is the strongest candidate or lynching. If I was swayed otherwise, I would simply change my vote. | ||
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That's ridiculous. Don't attack me and then refuse to comment on my response. | ||
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Or you can hide behind your shitty condescension. the second i defend myself, that works too. | ||
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Or you can hide behind your shitty condescension the second i defend myself, that works too. | ||
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I changed my vote from kane]deth[ to keit, I believe that is the only vote I've ever changed. I've also changed my mind based on new analysis which I had not considered before, but I don't think anyone in this game has NEVER changed their mind about who may or may not be most suspicious during this game. Back your shit up instead of making arrogant jokes and acting like you know something everyone doesn't. | ||
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I strongly feel that keit is mafia and that while the clue reference to Mystlord is indeed strong, I don't think it is anywhere near the level of the connection to keit. I also have dictated the use of my incarceration power to the town. If keit is lynched tonight and turns green/blue, then go ahead and lynch me if you think it'll get you more information. If I was mafia, there would be no reason to stick my neck out this far and be this active for the town. I'd have nothing to gain and everything to lose. | ||
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If keit turns up green, that's fair reason to suspect me. However, I'm fairly certain he's mafia. The clue connections are just too strong, and his behavior is suspicious enough. | ||
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If mafia are going to vote for mafia, wouldn't they bandwagon onto it rather than start the bandwagon themselves? | ||
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On January 27 2010 12:29 Ng5 wrote: We're also getting ahead of clues which are probably overlapping each other. It would also benefit the mafia to sacrifice one member for the possible safety of another. Wouldn't it? Enough of this. Time to decide, everyone can do it on their own. Today's decision and the consequences will pretty much decide which side will win. It can be either 10-11 vs 3 for town or complete and utter annihilation. ![]() Sure, but it wouldn't make sense for a mafia to out of nowhere begin a bandwagon on another mafia. If keit and myself were both mafia. Why would a mafia member decide to paint the most active poster red? It doesn't make any sense. | ||
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My being sheriff wouldn't really benefit the mafia anyway. I'm using my incarceration power the way the town wants me too. Like I said, I will be incarcerating meeple unless the town can think of a superior alternative. | ||
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If keit is green, lynch me if you must. | ||
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On January 28 2010 11:37 Ng5 wrote: I stand by that statement. | ||
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On January 28 2010 12:00 Ace wrote: agreed. Well play Dr.H. It was pretty hard for the town to catch you imo. thanks. i knew playing as ballsy as I did it was either gonna pay off big or little mistakes would catch up to me | ||
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On January 28 2010 12:05 citi.zen wrote: What I still don't get is why they did not kill me on night 2. Then none of this mess would have happened :-) I can shed light on these sort of things when the game is over. | ||
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On February 01 2010 11:27 citi.zen wrote: Jugan was a miller. LOL - he sure acted like one at the end there. GG all. DoctorH, why did you let me live night 2? I had no idea I was protected by the medics - do you know? The mafia assumed medics would be protecting you. Our original kill list for day 1 was Bill Murray/you/zona but, I figured if medics are protecting anyone, it's gonna be citi.zen, let's kill abenson to throw people off and then we can save citi.zen until the medics are gone or we can hit him twice in the same night. | ||
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Killing BM the first day was also a mistake. By leaving him alive, he would have trusted me more and I could have networked even more blues through him. Then the mafia could start hitting blues in groups and the town would probably suspect me but it would probably be something I could argue my way out of. I immediately regretted posting "a DT roleclaimed to me", at the time I wasn't planning to hit BM but I changed my mind stupidly. By saying a DT roleclaimed to me and then a DT dies the next day, is pretty incriminating. I actually think the biggest thing that hurt the mafia was bill murrays after death post, confirming citi.zen as green. That gave the blues an alternative way to network, through citi.zen, that cost us the game as I lost his trust. I felt like citi.zens trust in me started slipping fast after Bill Murray was killed, and obviously that was the case. Our plan was to get the town to use a double lynch asap and to get them to knock off hobbes and flamewheel. By getting the town to waste their double lynches, the mafia could last longer and once the mafia are just under 50% of the town our plan was to all vote the same way and for me to manipulate Jugan, who trusted me quite blindly, into wasting his vote. This way, no matter what happened in the thread, there was nothing that the town could do to change the results of the lynches. keit pointing his finger at me out of the blue was a shock to the rest of the mafia. However, I pushed way too aggressively for his lynching and it made me seem inconsistent. I panicked and made a bad decision, although keit really shouldn't have done that :x | ||
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mostly myself/mystlord/keit, but keit eventually tilted and started acting very strangely. He told Jugan in a PM that I was an asshole and told everyone to lynch him and that this game is hella gay after painting me as mafia for no reason phrujbaz/hyperbola occasionally dropped in, but there was zero communication with derfboy it was mostly me and mystlord conversing over irc | ||
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Phrujbaz used the name yalalala, for example. We mostly used it to discuss the hitlist, although we ended up talking about our plans. Communication could have been a lot better though. A lot of mafia never responded to my PMs and such. | ||
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