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On January 24 2010 07:44 789 wrote:
Well, the main reason I'm advocating clues right now is that I'm not sure if we have anyone worth lynching based on something other than clues. If I am wrong, I'd like to hear what people think - who to lynch and why.
The best ways I can think to confirm an innocent right now are a medic save and a clue analysis hitting home. Both players involved in a medic will now know eachother are innocent. If a clue analysis hits home - the person who first proposed it is probably innocent. Your point about mafia doing fake clue analysis is certainly valid, but I don't think they would go to the point of incriminating a fellow mafia to appear cooperative. Then again, I could be wrong - the mafia could be being very tricky. That person who did the clue analysis would look clean for a very long time, perhaps indefinitely. It could be wroth sacrificing 1 mafia to ensure longevity of another.
As for trapping a mafia, I don't have any surefire ways in mind yet. I'm hoping it ends up being sort of a "know a slip up when I see it" type of thing. Any PMs I have done have been pretty mild and unrevealing. There isn't anything I've said in a PM that I wouldn't have minded sharing openly - and it would appear like the same from the PMs I have received.
I agree we should spend sometime giving suggestions to the blues on how to use their abilities. I believe this should be done in the open until we start getting a network of people that know eachother are innocents, like we tried to do in night 1. We can save these sort of discussions for the night phases, as when these are when those abilities are put into action.
And finally, I agree with holding off on the double lynch for now. Unless something changes - which is impossible to know at this point, since we don't know what will happen with night 2 and day 3 clues- I don't think we have enough viable suspect to justify one.
If someone is saved by a medic, they don't know who that person is. Also, a medic could potentially save a mafia from a hit by a vigilante.
The biggest issue is detective communication. I liked the idea of a DT using a rolecheck to communicate through a confirmed green, but there is an issue that slipped my mind at the time. The mafia will simply hit that green to stop DT communication. One medic could cover that person indefinitely, but the mafia could double up hits or the medics may not even do it.
The "best" way for a blue to communicate through the town is through an elected role, since neither me or meeple can be hit at night. However, meeple and myself could just as well be mafia so that's an extremely risky move as well.
I think the best way for DT's to communicate is this:
If a clue-check comes up positive (remember, it could be a vigilante) or a role-check flips mafia, instead of telling someone "Hey I'm a DT and this is what I got, can you tell the town for me since I know you're innocent?" which makes you look suspicious (you could be mafia pretending to be the detective) or putting that person in danger, use the power of hindsight to build a case. If you know 100% someone is mafia, you can look through all their posts, previous clues, and their entire history in the game through the perspective of them being mafia. With that, you can build a really strong case and probably convince the town to lynch said person.
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On January 24 2010 07:47 789 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 07:36 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Someone did this in BC's thread and I thought it worked well. I'm going to bold everything that jumps out to me as a possible clue:
Walking home from the post-election celebration, a slightly tipsy blue_arrow was whistling tunelessly to himself in the violet dusk. After a block or two, he noticed the sound of someone shuffling behind him. Though unnerved, he tried to shrug it off and started walking faster. The shuffling did not speed up in response, and blue_arrow felt safer the further he walked from his follower. As the streetlamps flickered on one by one, he took a quick peek behind him. One glimpse of his follower's frightening appearance was enough to clear his mind and convince him the Mafia was after him. Blue_arrow took off running. Sweat dripped off his forehead and fear spurred him to achieve near-Olympian speed as he sprinted for his life. He flew past several blocks in a few minutes, but always he could hear his attacker plodding relentlessly after him. Finally, the exhausted blue_arrow slumped against a lamppost, so worn out by his headlong dash that he couldn't move another step. All he could do was watch with mounting dread as his entirely unperturbed attacker caught up to blue_arrow and strangled him to death
Instead of walking, Bill Murray drove home after the celebrations. When he arrived at his driveway, he was initially startled to see that his garage door had been forced open and didn't find any comfort when he looked within. It appeared as if a wild animal had been let loose inside his garage. Noticing that all the guns on his weapon rack were broken, Bill Murray started to panic. He turned around in a hurry, only to notice a broken rafter fall from the ceiling, landing right next to him. A high-pitched snicker immediately attracted his attention. He anxiously scanned the area, looking for a weapon. From the darkness, a figure appeared just outside the garage, advancing on him with what looked like a sledgehammer. The figure moved quickly, wearing a large helmet resembling an old rusty pail. The figure drew closer, and Bill Murray panicked and ran toward the door. Bill Murray tugged on the door, but it was locked. Bill Murray met his doom as the sledgehammer came down on his skull, ending his life.
nothing really stands out to me in the third death scenario :o I agree with these. A few I might add: From the first: "violet dusk" and "plodding relentlessly" From the second: "all the guns on his weapon rack were broken" This one could imply that the killer knew Bill Murray was a detective. This could point to some of the people he divulged his role to via PM - though we don't have a complete list and I doubt people are going to admit to it now.
The moderator would have no way of knowing who Bill Murray was PMing with, and it's already been 100% confirmed clues point only toward names, signatures, and profiles. Nothing else.
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Also, I'm going to assume that the clues today and yesterday combined point to 5 different mafia, meaning that there are clues on 2 mafia we haven't received.
If the mafia hits three people tomorrow night, we'll have 2 sets of clues on one person, that'll make our job much easier.
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We have a large pool of suspects right now, based on clues. Both Hobbes and flamewheel91 also connect to clues from the Day 2 post as well as kane/tredmasta/Mystlord.
tredmasta has been extremely inactive, as well as kane]deth[, which imo makes both them more suspicious. Hobbes has been somewhat active, although mostly defensive, but his behavior doesn't come across as suspicious.
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On January 24 2010 09:39 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 09:31 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
We have a large pool of suspects right now, based on clues. Both Hobbes and flamewheel91 also connect to clues from the Day 2 post as well as kane/tredmasta/Mystlord.
tredmasta has been extremely inactive, as well as kane]deth[, which imo makes both them more suspicious. Hobbes has been somewhat active, although mostly defensive, but his behavior doesn't come across as suspicious. At this point is there a reason you pick kan]deth[ over tredmasta or the others?
I'm personally more convinced by the connection, but it's all pretty close imo
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I personally feel the connection to Flamewheel is stronger than tredmastas. Particularly the references to olympians, specifically.
It's a tough decision we have to make : /
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this thread has slowed down too much 
I need something to take my mind off the abomination that was the msl
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Well if we vote for a double lynch today, we have to do it tomorrow. We could easily be just as indecisive. Ser Aspi is right, it's going to take more than day clues to sniff out the mafia: although the clues are certainly a helpful and objective framework for that purpose.
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On January 24 2010 13:24 meeple wrote:
I wouldn't really risk lynching off inactivity... we can't really afford to lose any green at this point
We can't afford to lose blue. The town still outnumber the mafia by a wide margin, but losing more blue at this stage would just be crippling.
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As far as for "being in the middle of the Bill Murray fiasco" I already explained that as being irrelevant. The mafia easily would have picked up on him being blue from his posts in this thread. What is more painting than begging for medic protection? Not to mention he made several other comments that made him seem that way.
As far as the Day 1 clues, I can't really do anything to dispute that other than say I'm not mafia. If I were, I wouldn't take the risk of being this active. I've made no attempt to hide the fact that Bill Murray was talking to me, or that he was even a detective. All because I know I'm innocent.
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On January 25 2010 02:28 tredmasta wrote:
Hey guys, sorry I haven't posted in a while. I was not at home all of yesterday.
I saw that I had been suspected, but I think overall, the clues point more to flamewheel91. My name is based off of a treadmill, but nothing else in my profile seems to really fit the clues.
I also feel it fits flamewheel91 a lot more than you.
I'm a bit inbetween voting for kane/flamewheel/keit atm.
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I'm going to make a case here and say the town should lynch keit
Upon thinking about it, the clues from day 1 fit Keit the best. The cookie monster is a barbaric creature and the photos in keit's profile specifically show the cookie monster cramming food down his throat. Also, the bug in keit's profile may be a fruit fly, which would explain the apple.
There is the clue connection.
Keit has been very inactive from day 1, a mafia would do this to avoid suspicion, and he has shown up only to point fingers at me. Since I am protected by bodyguards, it would make sense the mafia would want to direct town suspicion toward me. I am not only the most active poster in the mafia thread, but I can use my incarceration power to limit mafia kill power during critical moments.
I have explained and defended my connection to Bill Murray. Not only was he in contact with someone other than myself and citi.zen (who he unfortunately did not name) but he had posted several times in public things that would lead the mafia to guess he is blue. The fact that Jugan guessed that says at least that much.
I took a second glance over at his profile and after mulling it over I now feel he is our best bet.
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Anyone who pops in the thread just to paint someone red, particularly someone active in the town, is suspicious imo
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I think it should be noted that the "olympic runner" in the first scenario is describing Blue_Arrow not the mafia who killed him.
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I still think there is a strong connection to flamewheel, and that doesn't take him out as a suspect, but at the time I feel the connection to keit is much stronger.
At least there we can attribute suspicion to behavior AND clues. The clue is also much stronger imo.
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On January 25 2010 08:35 keit wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2010 07:47 Mystlord wrote:
I honestly don't find any of the connections convincing now. There's just always something that doesn't seem right... I really don't see where the keit connection is coming from :/ Maybe my lack of Sesame Street knowledge makes the apple clue not all that convincing. Haha, trust me, this is about something else. My vote for DoctorH made him react just as I'd thought.
uh, is it wrong to defend myself?
The clues connect to you as well and your behavior is well into the realm of suspiciousness.
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Additionally, in my defense, if anyone is accusing me based on my connection to Bill Murray; it would be highly illogical for me, as mafia, to let anyone know I was talking to him or that I knew he was a detective if I was planning to kill him all along.
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On January 25 2010 11:43 Zona wrote:
Man, one thing I really want is for all voters to post why they voted the way they did. If we're going to focus away from clue-based mafia hunting (since it hasn't done us much good so far), this kind of reasoning is the minimum required.
Town members, even those with blue powers, need to post more (and never lie, although it's fine to deny knowledge and post suspicions even when you're not sure), so that mafia can't get by without posting. Then mafia who do post might eventually slip up by posting contradictions or lies that they had to make to keep their identity secret.
Since I've asked for people to explain their votes, I might as well start.
I came to the thread pretty close to the deadline as I was working all afternoon on other things so it was too late to really be influencing outcomes. But since this is something that's a good ploy for mafia members to use, I'll do my best to get in early in the next discussion. I ended up stacking an unnecessary extra vote on kane just to see if the olympic clue really was that straightforward, but it wasn't. I do think we should focus away from clue-based mafia hunting for now.
Why I voted the way I did:
I voted for kane]deth[ initially because of the evidence meeple posted. However, keits clues from Day 1 and his finger pointing behavior/inactivity convinced me he is more likely mafia than kane.
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On January 25 2010 12:51 JohannesH wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2010 12:09 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On January 25 2010 11:43 Zona wrote:
Man, one thing I really want is for all voters to post why they voted the way they did. If we're going to focus away from clue-based mafia hunting (since it hasn't done us much good so far), this kind of reasoning is the minimum required.
Town members, even those with blue powers, need to post more (and never lie, although it's fine to deny knowledge and post suspicions even when you're not sure), so that mafia can't get by without posting. Then mafia who do post might eventually slip up by posting contradictions or lies that they had to make to keep their identity secret.
Since I've asked for people to explain their votes, I might as well start.
I came to the thread pretty close to the deadline as I was working all afternoon on other things so it was too late to really be influencing outcomes. But since this is something that's a good ploy for mafia members to use, I'll do my best to get in early in the next discussion. I ended up stacking an unnecessary extra vote on kane just to see if the olympic clue really was that straightforward, but it wasn't. I do think we should focus away from clue-based mafia hunting for now. Why I voted the way I did: I voted for kane]deth[ initially because of the evidence meeple posted. However, keits clues from Day 1 and his finger pointing behavior/inactivity convinced me he is more likely mafia than kane. Aggressive finger pointing isnt something a mafia would do too much I think.
Sure it is. What benefits the mafia more than creating confusion and causing the town to lynch other townies?
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On January 25 2010 12:56 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:
I abstained because I had not made up my mind on the clues quite yet, and then got too caught up in the Saints game to change my vote before the deadline
What a game huh?
Watched it at the local sports bar. Unbelievable.
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EPT
