EPT2015 Worlds Group Stage Day 5 (Group A) - Page 6
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LimpingGoat
898 Posts
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Numy
South Africa35471 Posts
On October 08 2015 05:17 LimpingGoat wrote: It's true that I am also overconfident in my own predictions sometimes. But I don't like people justifying wrong predictions with "they were right at the time". I would never get something wrong and then defend it, that's retarded. If that means I stop making predictions on things that are really close or have volatile formats such as bo1, then so be it (and so should actually popular analysts/prediction makers). It's better than calling it one way and being wrong. After MSI's failure you defended your assessment that TSM was a top tier team and merely that "Bo1s don't matter". Then before worlds you predicted TSM would easily make it out of groups, going so far as to say they could beat anyone in a bo5. This is the pot calling the kettle black. | ||
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Amarok
Australia2003 Posts
Also, no need to take the goat so seriously guys. Just have a lol and move on. | ||
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Hider
Denmark9384 Posts
Everything in this debate seems to be so focussed on black and white. Either you get the prediction right and you are genius or you got the outcome right but your analysis was good becasue C9 was the weakest team. Both of the above groups fails at basic statistics. | ||
Poopi
France12885 Posts
On October 08 2015 04:42 nimdil wrote: Worth to point out that assuming every match is 50:50 (which is stupid but still), C9 is in the best position Are you sure? | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands21685 Posts
87.5% chance to advance would say yes they are in the best position (assuming 50:50 for every match) | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On October 08 2015 03:46 Azarkon wrote: The issue still comes down to the massive errors of the LPL people - and I'd argue the LCS people - this year. As observed above, even MonteCristo was willing to say that Korean teams other than SKT were weak enough this year that they were not a level above the top LCS teams. But the LPL people - and MonteCristo, Thorin, etc. their followers - were completely off on LPL >>> LCS, even though there was a lot of evidence available to them that argued against such a belief. Listen to a few of the preview videos before the tournament. They're absolutely ridiculous in how they hype up LPL teams and players. People such as Moser knew that LGD and iG were not even practicing before the tournament, but didn't bother to take it into account in their write ups. It is this over sight by the "experts" of LPL that caused the whole mess. I'm sure lots of money were lost/made in the screw up as even top sites had decent ratios for LPL teams, especially LGD. For those who knew they were not doing well in scrims - and I'm sure there was a handful of people who knew - this was the easiest money of their lives. this LPL is good idea mostly comes from the talent they have on these teams and msi results. in the grand picture, lol as a game has evolved to be more about team play and less about individual micro outplays. further, individual wise players have also improved by learning best practices from the leading regions. | ||
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MajorityofOne
Canada2506 Posts
On October 08 2015 03:54 Zato-1 wrote: NA is 6-3. Korea's doing better, yes, but not by much. Right, but I'm pointing out that NA and EU's rise hasn't really been at Korea's expense. NA is 0-2 vs LCK. EU is 1-1 (H2K is the loss). Meanwhile NA is 2-0 against the LPL, and EU is 2-1 (again the loss is H2K). | ||
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Azarkon
United States21060 Posts
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MajorityofOne
Canada2506 Posts
In the case of C9's overachievement, though...unless you were inside their scrims leading up to worlds I just don't see how you could've reasonably made the case for them topping Group B. Last we saw him Hai had a ridiculous champion pool. Balls had a terrible two splits and even when the team turned it around in the gauntlet seemed like a liability. And he was going to be matched up against Huni, Zzitai, and Ziv in a top lane meta. They lost 12 games out of 18 during the regular split. The one truly impressive result C9 could claim was beating Liquid 3-1. On paper you could've perhaps said, Inc and Sneaky are a really good pair of carries, we know Balls has played better than this in the past, Hai is a crazy good shotcaller. But we hadn't seen it come together properly and everyone in the group had more reasons to like them going in imo. Maybe I'm being silly but I don't think you can hold analysts accountable for not predicting miracles. You would've had to ignore an entire split and all the flaws apparent during the gauntlet run. | ||
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MuddyJam
535 Posts
On October 08 2015 05:00 oo_Wonderful_oo wrote: They came to IEM having 10-0 record in LCK with 20-2 in sets, are you drunk. It doesn't mean shit that SKT killed them later or dominated next split. Only team better than GE Tigers in the world was EDG by that time and it was arguable, because LPL regular season is known clown fiesta. they beat SKT 2-1 mb because i forgot the format change. That was a close BO3 though and would of been a close Bo5. This is all before they go to IEM. I'm not saying that KOO is a bad team. The field they played against in early spring was full of new roosters. By the time you hit summer they are surpassed by cj and kt. In fact you can see the beginnings of this at the end of spring where they lose to both kt and skt, who would go on to finish above them in spring. Your making things way more complex than it needs to be. I'm saying KOO has stayed at a similar level then other teams caught up to them as expected would happen with new roosters. This explanation does not then need some fluctuating KOO. On October 08 2015 05:00 oo_Wonderful_oo wrote: Truly drunk. Hipster opinion i know but... its a team game, the advantages other junglers can get, i think are way less than the shot calling Hai brings to the team. Also Clearlove and kakao have not done anything amazing so far. | ||
nimdil
Poland3748 Posts
On October 08 2015 05:58 Gorsameth wrote: 87.5% chance to advance would say yes they are in the best position (assuming 50:50 for every match) It's 87.5% they win at least one match and they will advance no questions asked. But even if they go 0-3 it's still not 0. I.e. if they go 0-3, one of the teams go 3-0 and of course the other two goes 2-1 and 1-2. They are tied for 2nd place so still ~50% chance to win. Different scenario is that they go 0-3 and all other teams go 2-1. In such case it's 4 way tie and it's still 25%. Truth be told I didn't calculate the odds. | ||
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oo_Wonderful_oo
The land of freedom23126 Posts
On October 08 2015 06:47 MuddyJam wrote: they beat SKT 2-1 mb because i forgot the format change. That was a close BO3 though and would of been a close Bo5. This is all before they go to IEM. I'm not saying that KOO is a bad team. The field they played against in early spring was full of new roosters. By the time you hit summer they are surpassed by cj and kt. In fact you can see the beginnings of this at the end of spring where they lose to both kt and skt, who would go on to finish above them in spring. Your making things way more complex than it needs to be. I'm saying KOO has stayed at a similar level then other teams caught up to them as expected would happen with new roosters. This explanation does not then need some fluctuating KOO. It's not like KOO was proven roster which played together for years, lmao. PraY hadn't played for a year, Smeb, Kuro and later, Wisdom were IM rejects, Hojin was awful even by Najin Sword 2014 standards and Gorilla was only guy who was topdog. That series against SKT was literally GE not banning LeBlanc in second game, else it would've been 2-0 and both GE wins were convincing. Hipster opinion i know but... its a team game, the advantages other junglers can get, i think are way less than the shot calling Hai brings to the team. Also Clearlove and kakao have not done anything amazing so far. Shotcalling. Is. Overrated. Season 5 was trash and still is, but it doesn't mean that Hai is suddenly best jungler at Worlds. | ||
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Poopi
France12885 Posts
On October 08 2015 06:53 nimdil wrote: It's 87.5% they win at least one match and they will advance no questions asked. But even if they go 0-3 it's still not 0. I.e. if they go 0-3, one of the teams go 3-0 and of course the other two goes 2-1 and 1-2. They are tied for 2nd place so still ~50% chance to win. Different scenario is that they go 0-3 and all other teams go 2-1. In such case it's 4 way tie and it's still 25%. Truth be told I didn't calculate the odds. Sorry I just found mildly amusing that you found worth to point out that C9 is in the best position, since C9 is 1st at 3-0 and the other teams are at 1-2. If we knew the exact odds of the future C9 matches, the only way for them not to be the favorites to qualify, being 3-0, would be if they had like only 5% chances to beat the other teams or something like that... And even paiN / BKT probably would win at least 1 games out of 20 against teams from their group, despite being assumed as the weakest teams of the tourmanent by far, vs some of the best. | ||
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orzeu
Poland5205 Posts
On October 08 2015 06:45 MajorityofOne wrote: A bit about how divergent the results have been from pre-tournament expectations. I think in the case of the LPL's struggles we could reasonably say that the analysis was flawed. The LGD coaching situation was mentioned a bit but most people seemed to totally underrate how damaging that could be. Meanwhile everyone kind of knew that IG's bot lane was a massive liability. Both teams also had really inconsistent splits. Because of how strongly they both finished, we tried to sort of analyze away those issues ("sandbagging" and whatnot, which who knows, maybe they were, but they were def also just plain inconsistent). To Monte's credit he acknowledged all these issues in SI 59, but he still went ahead and picked LGD and IG to do well, I suppose because he thought they'd be able to succeed on sheer ability Who didn't pick LGD to do well? LGD never had real coaching stuff and they're fine whole year: 2 really impressive playoffs runs. LDG was sandbagging super hard in spring to avoid EDG in playoffs and in summer Pyl wasn't with the team (imagine C9 without Hai) for few weeks and then they're fine. | ||
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Amarok
Australia2003 Posts
Teams have also prepped really well for them (TSM's early teleport against their overaggro botlane is a good example). | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
especially at the beginning of the year when pretty much every korean team was either looted or in shambles from having to merge two teams of different styles. | ||
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MajorityofOne
Canada2506 Posts
On October 08 2015 07:17 orzeu wrote: Who didn't pick LGD to do well? LGD never had real coaching stuff and they're fine whole year: 2 really impressive playoffs runs. LDG was sandbagging super hard in spring to avoid EDG in playoffs and in summer Pyl wasn't with the team (imagine C9 without Hai) for few weeks and then they're fine. LGD had two very impressive playoff runs, during which they looked like one of the best teams in the world. They also had two splits where they went 24-20. You can write off the latter as them not trying, which is what most people (myself included) did. But what if they just are really, really inconsistent, on on their absolute best day they can beat anyone, but they have that "best day" pretty rarely. Not saying thats 100% the case here but its a possibility As far as coaching goes, isnt that they had no set coach during the split (where they were pretty average) then got a coach for the playoff run (and won the championship) then had a whole fiasco where they got Homme as a "secret" coach and the coach they won with peaced? Again, its speculation as to whether this affected their performance, but I don't think you can just say, well, they've never had a great coaching situation, so that cant have anything to do with why they're 0-3 now. Watch them go 3-0 during the second half and make all this stuff im saying irrelevant. | ||
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MuddyJam
535 Posts
On October 08 2015 06:59 oo_Wonderful_oo wrote: It's not like KOO was proven roster which played together for years, lmao. PtraY hadn't played for a year, Smeb, Kuro and later, Wisdom were IM rejects, Hojin was awful even by Najin Sword 2014 standards and Gorilla was only guy who was topdog. That series against SKT was literally GE not banning LeBlanc in second game, else it would've been 2-0 and both GE wins were convincing. some roosters gel faster than others what's your point? They didn't have any role swaps on there teams so that may of helped too. Like i don't know, maybe lets pick cj and kt the teams that finished above them in summer. Pray is an ogn winner, and wasn't on a team for only 6 months. Even if he did, forgiv1n has completely quit lol before for months and come back and wrecked people still. I imagine Pray was still on solo que even when teamless and probably had to play qualifiers for KOO. Reignover was an IM reject also, what's your point? dade+insec where cj rejects. IM has poor use of the talent they have had is something I have not talked about and not relevant to this debate. Neither did i say anywhere KOO was a bunch of proven players. They are not new to professional play as you point out. I don't remember the games well enough to get into it. I know in the SI the following week monte says they are evenly matched and would of loved to see two more games. What do you want? KOO is a solid team that hit the ground running, helped in part by designing juggermaw which made Pray look better than he is. They played in an environment which was full of teams trying out new things and included role swaps for most major teams. But by the time LCK play-offs happened KOO had been caught up and surpassed by some of the more elite teams who finally had settled members. | ||
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oo_Wonderful_oo
The land of freedom23126 Posts
On October 08 2015 08:06 MuddyJam wrote: some roosters gel faster than others what's your point? They didn't have any role swaps on there teams so that may of helped too. Like i don't know, maybe lets pick cj and kt the teams that finished above them in summer. Pray is an ogn winner, and wasn't on a team for only 6 months. Even if he did, forgiv1n has completely quit lol before for months and come back and wrecked people still. I imagine Pray was still on solo que even when teamless and probably had to play qualifiers for KOO. Reignover was an IM reject also, what's your point? dade+insec where cj rejects. IM has poor use of the talent they have had is something I have not talked about and not relevant to this debate. Neither did i say anywhere KOO was a bunch of proven players. They are not new to professional play as you point out. I don't remember the games well enough to get into it. I know in the SI the following week monte says they are evenly matched and would of loved to see two more games. What do you want? KOO is a solid team that hit the ground running, helped in part by designing juggermaw which made Pray look better than he is. They played in an environment which was full of teams trying out new things and included role swaps for most major teams. But by the time LCK play-offs happened KOO had been caught up and surpassed by some of the more elite teams who finally had settled members. So you're basically stating that Tigers lucked out to Worlds and never were good. I see. On October 08 2015 07:17 orzeu wrote: Who didn't pick LGD to do well? LGD never had real coaching stuff and they're fine whole year: 2 really impressive playoffs runs. LDG was sandbagging super hard in spring to avoid EDG in playoffs and in summer Pyl wasn't with the team (imagine C9 without Hai) for few weeks and then they're fine. Not to mention, that LGD didn't have coach before and Pyl almost dragged 17, newbie Weiless and Quan to Worlds just by showing them basics of game and Acorn coached LGD for half of split. | ||
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