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On October 08 2015 03:23 MajorityofOne wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2015 11:29 LimpingGoat wrote: Monte's analysis has been overvalued because Korean dominance has been de facto for two seasons straight. So because he is the korean caster and markets himself as "classy high-minded gentleman", as well as because to a lot of western fans he was the predictor of Samsung White and SKT T1 K's wins at Worlds, people have had this illusion of his opinion as scripture.
Unfortunately, he hasn't anticipated or accurately adjusted his own predictions and analysis according to what we can see as the weakening of Korea due to the Korean exodus.
Stuff like constantly basing predictions between Korean teams and western teams on Korean team is better so the star players of that team must be on a whole other level individually. "Smeb is just going to wipe the floor with all of the teams at IEM Katowice". GE Tigers proceeds to lose to a team with Aluka. I've been critical of Monte and his and the people he associates with's styles of analysis for a long time, and I'm hopeful they will learn something, but I'm doubtful. For all that the gap between Korea and the rest of the world is pretty clearly lessened, they're still 7-2 in this tournament so far. NA is 6-3. Korea's doing better, yes, but not by much.
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Noooooo I don't want to watch group A whole day This means we'll get a group C day and that's going to be even more boring
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Why does it go A -> C -> D -> B?
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The land of freedom23126 Posts
On October 08 2015 04:29 Numy wrote: Why does it go A -> C -> D -> B?
To please Fnatic fuccbois, duh. It's in Paris after all, not in Seoul.
A is marked as "weakest group", therefore, on Thursday. C is decided, therefore can put on Friday to watch T1/EDG AS FIRST GAME.
And top Western hopes are in D/B, therefore can put them last.
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France12880 Posts
On October 08 2015 04:29 Numy wrote: Why does it go A -> C -> D -> B? They put the least interesting groups during week days, then the most hyped ones during weekend? edit : less interesting in the sense that the results are quite predictable, not that the teams in these groups won't make for interesting matches should they qualify*
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Poland3748 Posts
On October 08 2015 03:50 Poopi wrote:About the Hai saying "we are good" and stuff, I think I read in a LemonNation interview that C9 were indeed doing bad in scrims (which so far isn't very promising when you are the outsider already), so they probably didn't expect to 3-0 even if they thought it was possible. I don't think saying out loud that they are good will hinder them so why not  . Iirc the only way for them not to qualify would be losing all of their games, which is very unlikely to happen. If they win one game, they can't be lower than 2nd. That's because with there are 12 "wins" to distribute, with 6 already allcoated. If they win one more there will be 5 to distribute among three teams with a gap of 3 between them and the rest. So even three way tie (aka minimum amount of wins to possibly push C9 down the results) is impossib. So yea - C9 need just one win. But it's not impossible for them to encounter reverse sweep. Worth to point out that assuming every match is 50:50 (which is stupid but still), C9 is in the best position, as one win does not guarantee SKT nor Origen getting out of the group. I.e. if SKT would beat BKT but loose to H2K and EDG. And H2K > EDG, H2K > BKT, EDG > BKT we would end up with 3-way tie 4-2 4-2 4-2 0-6.
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Poland3748 Posts
On October 08 2015 04:33 Poopi wrote:They put the least interesting groups during week days, then the most hyped ones during weekend? edit : less interesting in the sense that the results are quite predictable, not that the teams in these groups won't make for interesting matches should they qualify* I don't see how group A is predictable considering they overall group's result is as even as possible at this point (2-1 2-1 1-2 1-2). But group A has no European team, while group H2K in C is next to being dead already so for the live audience (in Europe) group B and D is more exciting.
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Wait they changed the group order? When I last looked it was just in order I'm pretty sure, maybe I misread. So it's Group D that clashes with Proleague final
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On October 08 2015 02:31 orzeu wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2015 02:02 LimpingGoat wrote:On October 08 2015 01:02 Numy wrote:On October 08 2015 00:59 LimpingGoat wrote:On October 07 2015 21:23 nimdil wrote:On October 07 2015 11:29 LimpingGoat wrote: Monte's analysis has been overvalued because Korean dominance has been de facto for two seasons straight. So because he is the korean caster and markets himself as "classy high-minded gentleman", as well as because to a lot of western fans he was the predictor of Samsung White and SKT T1 K's wins at Worlds, people have had this illusion of his opinion as scripture.
Unfortunately, he hasn't anticipated or accurately adjusted his own predictions and analysis according to what we can see as the weakening of Korea due to the Korean exodus.
Stuff like constantly basing predictions between Korean teams and western teams on Korean team is better so the star players of that team must be on a whole other level individually. "Smeb is just going to wipe the floor with all of the teams at IEM Katowice". GE Tigers proceeds to lose to a team with Aluka. I've been critical of Monte and his and the people he associates with's styles of analysis for a long time, and I'm hopeful they will learn something, but I'm doubtful. IEM was weird. TSM winning, KOO choking so hard. IEM wasn't weird, it certainly did show a change in the strengths of regions, particularly Korea. What happened to KOO was totally predictable, so I wouldn't call it weird. Less KOO but more WE and TSM. Both teams didn't really have a right to do so well at an event but lack of competition made it so. People forget that the WE roster that made finals against TSM at IEM took good EDG to game 5 in playoffs. TSM had a total right to win that event and it's a reasonable thing to say that even if whoever was number 1 in china at the time attended, they would have still won. They had the meta figured out and it worked for them. Crazy, right. But anyway, my point was that for Monte to be truly credible in my eyes, he would have had to supplement his Korea is good analysis while they were actually incredibly dominant with the foresight to see when they were going to fall of. But instead he just hyped up KOO Tigers even though they were randomly the best in Korea after China raped Korea of their best teams/players. Haha, lets ignore that EDG was without PawN vs WE till game 5 and U had 0 synergy with the team and played fucking Galio. Also Deft was the best player in the World in spring and EDG was doing super well in regular season, but w/e they would lose for sure to mighty TSM. Most of ppl were saying that KOO is the best team in the World before IEM. Use brain before you say something, please.
Oh, forgot about the Pawn thing.
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On October 08 2015 02:31 orzeu wrote: Most of ppl were saying that KOO is the best team in the World before IEM. Use brain before you say something, please.
And they where wrong then. People saying that had some absurd viewing of Pray. Like he is a decent adc but people saying KOO best team in the world where saying things like pray best all time adc or on imps/Uzi level. Also to hold that view of KOO you had to overlook the complete rebuilding every other team out of SKT was doing. I may be wrong but i think they split when they went head to head (at height of juggermaw when people still working it out). Then back from IEM they proceed to get destroyed in the finals by SKT. And somehow people stop hyping up pray at every moment. The next split SKT dominates over everybody with again KOO match-ups not even being close.
Going to throw this out there. I think Hai is the best jungler at worlds. His laning and positioning can be covered with lane swaps. Which as a separate issue makes c9 greater than the sum of its parts. Like also hides ballz and gets incarnation less jungler pressure. But then post laning which the game is trending towards shrinking in importance, Hai grows in value way more than any player other junglers. To be clear, by "best" in the case i mean he brings most to the table to have him on a given team.
Saying all that, I do think c9 will struggle more in the second week. Teams should be ready for the one strategy they have been using. or ready to use things like veigar themselves.
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I also thinks its retarded that people on Reddit, and Thoorin even made a video defending analysts looking stupid in retrospect after this Worlds' group stages.
If your analysis completely dismissed the possibility of the actual outcome, it should be criticized and the analyst should take the opportunity to improve themselves, not just say fuck you guys can't predict everything it was right at the time hurr durr.
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On October 08 2015 04:53 LimpingGoat wrote: I also thinks its retarded that people on Reddit, and Thoorin even made a video defending analysts looking stupid in retrospect after this Worlds' group stages.
If your analysis completely dismissed the possibility of the actual outcome, it should be criticized and the analyst should take the opportunity to improve themselves, not just say fuck you guys can't predict everything it was right at the time hurr durr. No one wants fucking analysts to consistently put a fucking disclosure of "OF COURSE MY PREDICTIONS COULD BE WRONG, BECAUSE OF POSSIBLE UPSET." every fucking time they make a prediction or analysis.
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KOO is and has been all year a really intelligent stable team. That flash wolf loss was really surprising. That being said I didn't ever think they had a shot to win the tournament because they don't have a high ceiling.
On the other hand KT was getting underrated quite a bit. I think Monte might've been secretly high on them but after his OGN finals prediction fiasco he was hoping they'd go under the radar. KT might be the 2nd best team in the tournament.
Personally I want the Chinese teams to do better. I'm rooting for them to turn it around. I don't think the LPL was overrated. The LPL as a whole still might've been better than OGN, atleast in the summer season. The bottom of the barrel in LPL >> anarchy, samsung, and sbenu. Also the middle of the pack LPL teams were better than the likes of Najin and CJ. Although I do think the top 3 in OGN were better than top 3 in LPL. Sad to see IG making it through. They were never a good team and somehow played really well in regionals.
I also felt NA LCS was underrated. I heard Monte say stuff like this is the worst NA LCS has ever been. I disagree completely. This is the best NA LCS has ever been. It's just that there is no single dominant team like the past but the overall average level is much better than ever before even if the best teams are weaker than past best teams.
I'd be happy if a non-Korean team wins Worlds but I don't want it to be a fluke. I want it to be through good play like OG vs KT.
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The land of freedom23126 Posts
On October 08 2015 04:50 MuddyJam wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2015 02:31 orzeu wrote: Most of ppl were saying that KOO is the best team in the World before IEM. Use brain before you say something, please. And they where wrong then. People saying that had some absurd viewing of Pray. Like he is a decent adc but people saying KOO best team in the world where saying things like pray best all time adc or on imps/Uzi level. Also to hold that view of KOO you had to overlook the complete rebuilding every other team out of SKT was doing. I may be wrong but i think they split when they went head to head (at height of juggermaw when people still working it out). Then back from IEM they proceed to get destroyed in the finals by SKT. And somehow people stop hyping up pray at every moment. The next split SKT dominates over everybody with again KOO match-ups not even being close. Going to throw this out there. I think Hai is the best jungler at worlds. His laning and positioning can be covered with lane swaps. Which as a separate issue makes c9 greater than the sum of its parts. Like also hides ballz and gets incarnation less jungler pressure. But then post laning which the game is trending towards shrinking in importance, Hai grows in value way more than any player other junglers. To be clear, by "best" in the case i mean he brings most to the table to have him on a given team. Saying all that, I do think c9 will struggle more in the second week. Teams should be ready for the one strategy they have been using. or ready to use things like veigar themselves.
They came to IEM having 10-0 record in LCK with 20-2 in sets, are you drunk. It doesn't mean shit that SKT killed them later or dominated next split.
Only team better than GE Tigers in the world was EDG by that time and it was arguable, because LPL regular season is known clown fiesta.
I think Hai is the best jungler at worlds
Truly drunk.
KT can't be second best team at tournament, Ssumday, Score and Piccaboo are working with dead weight carries. Yes, their early game is strong and they understand game pretty well, but you can't win without carries, that's how game works.
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On October 08 2015 04:56 wei2coolman wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2015 04:53 LimpingGoat wrote: I also thinks its retarded that people on Reddit, and Thoorin even made a video defending analysts looking stupid in retrospect after this Worlds' group stages.
If your analysis completely dismissed the possibility of the actual outcome, it should be criticized and the analyst should take the opportunity to improve themselves, not just say fuck you guys can't predict everything it was right at the time hurr durr. No one wants fucking analysts to consistently put a fucking disclosure of "OF COURSE MY PREDICTIONS COULD BE WRONG, BECAUSE OF POSSIBLE UPSET." every fucking time they make a prediction or analysis.
Well maybe not, but I think people should want analysts to be aware of the nature of making predictions. The fact that a lot of stuff that has happened has been so surprising shows how off the analysts are on their judgement of the likelihood of upsets. Predictions shouldn't be so confident that they look stupid when the opposite happens.
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On October 08 2015 05:01 LimpingGoat wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2015 04:56 wei2coolman wrote:On October 08 2015 04:53 LimpingGoat wrote: I also thinks its retarded that people on Reddit, and Thoorin even made a video defending analysts looking stupid in retrospect after this Worlds' group stages.
If your analysis completely dismissed the possibility of the actual outcome, it should be criticized and the analyst should take the opportunity to improve themselves, not just say fuck you guys can't predict everything it was right at the time hurr durr. No one wants fucking analysts to consistently put a fucking disclosure of "OF COURSE MY PREDICTIONS COULD BE WRONG, BECAUSE OF POSSIBLE UPSET." every fucking time they make a prediction or analysis. Well maybe not, but I think people should want analysts to be aware of the nature of making predictions. The fact that a lot of stuff that has happened has been so surprising shows how off the analysts are on their judgement of the likelihood of upsets. Predictions shouldn't be so confident that they look stupid when the opposite happens.
I don't know if the irony is intentional or not. Someone tell me?
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On October 08 2015 05:01 LimpingGoat wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2015 04:56 wei2coolman wrote:On October 08 2015 04:53 LimpingGoat wrote: I also thinks its retarded that people on Reddit, and Thoorin even made a video defending analysts looking stupid in retrospect after this Worlds' group stages.
If your analysis completely dismissed the possibility of the actual outcome, it should be criticized and the analyst should take the opportunity to improve themselves, not just say fuck you guys can't predict everything it was right at the time hurr durr. No one wants fucking analysts to consistently put a fucking disclosure of "OF COURSE MY PREDICTIONS COULD BE WRONG, BECAUSE OF POSSIBLE UPSET." every fucking time they make a prediction or analysis. Well maybe not, but I think people should want analysts to be aware of the nature of making predictions. The fact that a lot of stuff that has happened has been so surprising shows how off the analysts are on their judgement of the likelihood of upsets. Predictions shouldn't be so confident that they look stupid when the opposite happens. Not sure if serious.
The word PREDICTION already includes the possibility that it could be wrong. Are you seriously saying that you can't comprehend the idea that predictions could be wrong without a disclosure from the analyst?
And for godsakes, it's essentially a talkshow to buy time in between games. Not a financial agreement between you and an investment firm.
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Don't they normally give odds anyway? Like 90% KT, 10% TSM.
The fact that people can even suggest Hai is the best jungler at Worlds shows what a sad year it has been.
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On October 08 2015 05:06 Ansibled wrote: Don't they normally give odds anyway? Like 90% KT, 10% TSM.
The fact that people can even suggest Hai is the best jungler at Worlds shows what a sad year it has been. Name a jungler that can shotcall like Hai? Checkmate.
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On October 08 2015 05:01 LimpingGoat wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2015 04:56 wei2coolman wrote:On October 08 2015 04:53 LimpingGoat wrote: I also thinks its retarded that people on Reddit, and Thoorin even made a video defending analysts looking stupid in retrospect after this Worlds' group stages.
If your analysis completely dismissed the possibility of the actual outcome, it should be criticized and the analyst should take the opportunity to improve themselves, not just say fuck you guys can't predict everything it was right at the time hurr durr. No one wants fucking analysts to consistently put a fucking disclosure of "OF COURSE MY PREDICTIONS COULD BE WRONG, BECAUSE OF POSSIBLE UPSET." every fucking time they make a prediction or analysis. Well maybe not, but I think people should want analysts to be aware of the nature of making predictions. The fact that a lot of stuff that has happened has been so surprising shows how off the analysts are on their judgement of the likelihood of upsets. Predictions shouldn't be so confident that they look stupid when the opposite happens.
I really don't understand why people are so personally offended by someone else having an opinion that turns out to be wrong for a set of bo1s. You think the people doing the analyzing are so out of touch with reality that they think their predictions can't be wrong? You guys want LoL to be like the NBA (82 game regular season with regression to expected means, b07 playoffs with the best teams where goods beat bads, betters beat goods, and one of the bests wins it all); it's not, it's the NFL (16 game regular season, far more luck inherent to the sport and also due to injuries/scheduling/etc, playoffs with plenty of 'unexplained' upsets where the worse team simply has an excellent showing, or vice-versa for the better team, in a small sample set)
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