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2015 Worlds Group Stage Day 5 (Group A) - Page 8

Forum Index > LoL Tournaments
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Disengaged
Profile Joined July 2010
United States6994 Posts
October 08 2015 10:43 GMT
#141
On October 08 2015 18:34 Numy wrote:
Oh shit group stages start so early. Forgot we now 2 hours behind.


Yeah . . . I decided to stay up all night today because I know that if I went to bed I would not be awake in time for the games lol
oo_Wonderful_oo
Profile Blog Joined December 2013
The land of freedom23126 Posts
October 08 2015 10:54 GMT
#142
It will be so hilarious if FW advance despite losing to Brazil.
LiquidLegends StaffFPL 25 #1 | tfw I cast games on-air | back-to-back Liquibet winner
Plexa
Profile Blog Joined October 2005
Aotearoa39261 Posts
October 08 2015 10:55 GMT
#143
On October 08 2015 18:50 Amarok wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 08 2015 15:07 tarath wrote:
On October 08 2015 13:39 NovaTheFeared wrote:
Probabilistic predictions are a much more accurate way to determine how good a forecaster is. But even If C9 had a 40% chance in each game, then that means the favored team is only 36% to win both games in a row, thus the more likely outcome is that C9 wins one of the two games. It's lazy predictions using deterministic criteria that got exposed by this tournament the same way Nate Silver eviscerated the political "gut feeling" pundits, which are what today's so-called analysts are.

Where mathematical models replace eyeball test idiots like Thorin, Monte, Yamato, and all the rest, like in betting markets, the models simply do better. Your average expert analyst in league of legends is only slightly better than a coin flip to predict a game, despite claims of expertise.


This is basically all that needs to be said. If the "experts" had a basic understanding of statistics and checked the betting odds before they went on air they'd all be way better at predicting (eg C9/TSM going 0-6 was statistically unlikely).


Why is Monte considered an "eyeball test idiot" (whatever the fuck that means)? Because he said he "would never count out Hais ability to pull out a win due to epic shot calling" when asked if c9 would go 0-6? Or was it when he said it was possible (just possible) that TSM wouldn't win a game? Neither statement is even remotely unreasonable given what we knew a fortnight ago.

The game isn't about statistics. The game isn't about flipping a coin 1000 times and having it come up heads more times than tails. It's absolutely possible to watch performances of players and teams, judge how well they react and execute and then make a call on their relative strength compared to opponents they're facing.

Not to mention I don't remember a single post by any of the analyst haters here bigging up c9 or predicting LGD would crash and burn. Feel free to put up or shut up next time.

To be fair, proper algorithms regularly outperform human guesswork. That said humans should have clued onto LGD sucking earlier than an algorithm would have... We should really build a model for 2016 seems like a fun project.
Administrator~ Spirit will set you free ~
Plexa
Profile Blog Joined October 2005
Aotearoa39261 Posts
October 08 2015 10:56 GMT
#144
On October 08 2015 19:54 oo_Wonderful_oo wrote:
It will be so hilarious if FW advance despite losing to Brazil.

Hilarious, and awesome (if they advance with KOO)

#eastrising
Administrator~ Spirit will set you free ~
Ansibled
Profile Joined November 2014
United Kingdom9872 Posts
October 08 2015 11:09 GMT
#145
On October 08 2015 19:54 oo_Wonderful_oo wrote:
It will be so hilarious if FW advance despite losing to Brazil.

Sounds like something CLG would do.
'StarCraft is just a fairy tale told to scare children actually.'
TL+ Member
Video2000
Profile Joined April 2012
Denmark517 Posts
October 08 2015 11:32 GMT
#146
What is this weird discussion about analysts and predictions?
Could you guys start giving examples, links, quotes etc instead of just randomly flaming about stuff that doesnt exist in this world? Like Monte being bad at predictions and analysis, Arrow commonly being compared to Imp and Uzi (seriously where does this even come from?) and so on..
So much bullshit in this thread :/
Is this what happens when western teams finally "succeed"? All the people who have been angry, having a hard time understanding why China and Korea have been much much stronger for three years, finally come out and start bashing analysts left and right like people should have expected these results (oh and btw, you guys who talk about bookies, go take a look at the odds for the matches so far)?
Holy fuck this thread and the Reddit thread about Thorin's video, it really feels like Pandora's box was opened with these results
LimpingGoat
Profile Joined January 2015
898 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-10-08 11:35:08
October 08 2015 11:32 GMT
#147
On October 08 2015 18:50 Amarok wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 08 2015 15:07 tarath wrote:
On October 08 2015 13:39 NovaTheFeared wrote:
Probabilistic predictions are a much more accurate way to determine how good a forecaster is. But even If C9 had a 40% chance in each game, then that means the favored team is only 36% to win both games in a row, thus the more likely outcome is that C9 wins one of the two games. It's lazy predictions using deterministic criteria that got exposed by this tournament the same way Nate Silver eviscerated the political "gut feeling" pundits, which are what today's so-called analysts are.

Where mathematical models replace eyeball test idiots like Thorin, Monte, Yamato, and all the rest, like in betting markets, the models simply do better. Your average expert analyst in league of legends is only slightly better than a coin flip to predict a game, despite claims of expertise.


This is basically all that needs to be said. If the "experts" had a basic understanding of statistics and checked the betting odds before they went on air they'd all be way better at predicting (eg C9/TSM going 0-6 was statistically unlikely).


Why is Monte considered an "eyeball test idiot" (whatever the fuck that means)? Because he said he "would never count out Hais ability to pull out a win due to epic shot calling" when asked if c9 would go 0-6? Or was it when he said it was possible (just possible) that TSM wouldn't win a game? Neither statement is even remotely unreasonable given what we knew a fortnight ago.

The game isn't about statistics. The game isn't about flipping a coin 1000 times and having it come up heads more times than tails. It's absolutely possible to watch performances of players and teams, judge how well they react and execute and then make a call on their relative strength compared to opponents they're facing.

Not to mention I don't remember a single post by any of the analyst haters here bigging up c9 or predicting LGD would crash and burn. Feel free to put up or shut up next time.


He didn't say it was possible, he said he didn't think they would win a single game which implies at least over 50 percent chance probably more knowing Monte.

Which is a perfect example of what I was complaining about in my earlier posts. I don't actually think Monte is stupid enough to have thought there was over a 50 percent chance that TSM wouldn't win a single game, and yet he makes a statement that is only justified if he did think so.
Numy
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
South Africa35471 Posts
October 08 2015 11:37 GMT
#148
Don't know if anyone posted this but some cool news http://www.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/latestnews/2015/bbc-three-league-of-legends
Ysellian
Profile Joined December 2010
Netherlands9029 Posts
October 08 2015 11:40 GMT
#149
That is really cool! Shame I don't have BBC3 here in NL.
orzeu
Profile Joined September 2013
Poland5205 Posts
October 08 2015 11:58 GMT
#150
KOO 3-0, CLG 1-2, FW 2-1 and tie break to FW.
Inflicted
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Australia18228 Posts
October 08 2015 12:03 GMT
#151
I hope CLG advances, I think theyll be better than FW playing in a Bo5
Liquipedia"Expert"
LimpingGoat
Profile Joined January 2015
898 Posts
October 08 2015 12:07 GMT
#152
How did KOO become the favorite for this bo1.
Numy
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
South Africa35471 Posts
October 08 2015 12:07 GMT
#153
On October 08 2015 21:07 LimpingGoat wrote:
How did KOO become the favorite for this bo1.


When they beat them last Bo1 and CLG hasn't looked good in any game they've played?
LimpingGoat
Profile Joined January 2015
898 Posts
October 08 2015 12:08 GMT
#154
On October 08 2015 21:07 Numy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 08 2015 21:07 LimpingGoat wrote:
How did KOO become the favorite for this bo1.


When they beat them last Bo1 and CLG hasn't looked good in any game they've played?


KOO's looked crap as well though.
Zealously
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
East Gorteau22261 Posts
October 08 2015 12:08 GMT
#155
On October 08 2015 21:07 Numy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 08 2015 21:07 LimpingGoat wrote:
How did KOO become the favorite for this bo1.


When they beat them last Bo1 and CLG hasn't looked good in any game they've played?


But #NAFaith
AdministratorBreak the chains
Zealously
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
East Gorteau22261 Posts
October 08 2015 12:09 GMT
#156
On October 08 2015 21:08 LimpingGoat wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 08 2015 21:07 Numy wrote:
On October 08 2015 21:07 LimpingGoat wrote:
How did KOO become the favorite for this bo1.


When they beat them last Bo1 and CLG hasn't looked good in any game they've played?


KOO's looked crap as well though.


Steak's hair has looked absolutely amazing, though
AdministratorBreak the chains
Numy
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
South Africa35471 Posts
October 08 2015 12:10 GMT
#157
On October 08 2015 21:08 LimpingGoat wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 08 2015 21:07 Numy wrote:
On October 08 2015 21:07 LimpingGoat wrote:
How did KOO become the favorite for this bo1.


When they beat them last Bo1 and CLG hasn't looked good in any game they've played?


KOO's looked crap as well though.


Except in the CLG game where KOO stomped CLG so hard. I agree KOO hasn't looked that good vs other teams.
MajorityofOne
Profile Joined December 2010
Canada2506 Posts
October 08 2015 12:11 GMT
#158
On October 08 2015 21:08 LimpingGoat wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 08 2015 21:07 Numy wrote:
On October 08 2015 21:07 LimpingGoat wrote:
How did KOO become the favorite for this bo1.


When they beat them last Bo1 and CLG hasn't looked good in any game they've played?


KOO's looked crap as well though.


Not against CLG they didn't

Inflicted
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Australia18228 Posts
October 08 2015 12:11 GMT
#159
Not even Crumbzz has faith. RIP CLG
Liquipedia"Expert"
Disengaged
Profile Joined July 2010
United States6994 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-10-08 12:12:51
October 08 2015 12:12 GMT
#160
Omg . . .

Screw this casting pairing
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