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On October 08 2015 18:34 Numy wrote: Oh shit group stages start so early. Forgot we now 2 hours behind.
Yeah . . . I decided to stay up all night today because I know that if I went to bed I would not be awake in time for the games lol
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The land of freedom23126 Posts
It will be so hilarious if FW advance despite losing to Brazil.
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
On October 08 2015 18:50 Amarok wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2015 15:07 tarath wrote:On October 08 2015 13:39 NovaTheFeared wrote: Probabilistic predictions are a much more accurate way to determine how good a forecaster is. But even If C9 had a 40% chance in each game, then that means the favored team is only 36% to win both games in a row, thus the more likely outcome is that C9 wins one of the two games. It's lazy predictions using deterministic criteria that got exposed by this tournament the same way Nate Silver eviscerated the political "gut feeling" pundits, which are what today's so-called analysts are.
Where mathematical models replace eyeball test idiots like Thorin, Monte, Yamato, and all the rest, like in betting markets, the models simply do better. Your average expert analyst in league of legends is only slightly better than a coin flip to predict a game, despite claims of expertise. This is basically all that needs to be said. If the "experts" had a basic understanding of statistics and checked the betting odds before they went on air they'd all be way better at predicting (eg C9/TSM going 0-6 was statistically unlikely). Why is Monte considered an "eyeball test idiot" (whatever the fuck that means)? Because he said he "would never count out Hais ability to pull out a win due to epic shot calling" when asked if c9 would go 0-6? Or was it when he said it was possible (just possible) that TSM wouldn't win a game? Neither statement is even remotely unreasonable given what we knew a fortnight ago. The game isn't about statistics. The game isn't about flipping a coin 1000 times and having it come up heads more times than tails. It's absolutely possible to watch performances of players and teams, judge how well they react and execute and then make a call on their relative strength compared to opponents they're facing. Not to mention I don't remember a single post by any of the analyst haters here bigging up c9 or predicting LGD would crash and burn. Feel free to put up or shut up next time. To be fair, proper algorithms regularly outperform human guesswork. That said humans should have clued onto LGD sucking earlier than an algorithm would have... We should really build a model for 2016 seems like a fun project.
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
On October 08 2015 19:54 oo_Wonderful_oo wrote: It will be so hilarious if FW advance despite losing to Brazil. Hilarious, and awesome (if they advance with KOO)
#eastrising
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On October 08 2015 19:54 oo_Wonderful_oo wrote: It will be so hilarious if FW advance despite losing to Brazil. Sounds like something CLG would do.
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What is this weird discussion about analysts and predictions? Could you guys start giving examples, links, quotes etc instead of just randomly flaming about stuff that doesnt exist in this world? Like Monte being bad at predictions and analysis, Arrow commonly being compared to Imp and Uzi (seriously where does this even come from?) and so on.. So much bullshit in this thread :/ Is this what happens when western teams finally "succeed"? All the people who have been angry, having a hard time understanding why China and Korea have been much much stronger for three years, finally come out and start bashing analysts left and right like people should have expected these results (oh and btw, you guys who talk about bookies, go take a look at the odds for the matches so far)? Holy fuck this thread and the Reddit thread about Thorin's video, it really feels like Pandora's box was opened with these results
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On October 08 2015 18:50 Amarok wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2015 15:07 tarath wrote:On October 08 2015 13:39 NovaTheFeared wrote: Probabilistic predictions are a much more accurate way to determine how good a forecaster is. But even If C9 had a 40% chance in each game, then that means the favored team is only 36% to win both games in a row, thus the more likely outcome is that C9 wins one of the two games. It's lazy predictions using deterministic criteria that got exposed by this tournament the same way Nate Silver eviscerated the political "gut feeling" pundits, which are what today's so-called analysts are.
Where mathematical models replace eyeball test idiots like Thorin, Monte, Yamato, and all the rest, like in betting markets, the models simply do better. Your average expert analyst in league of legends is only slightly better than a coin flip to predict a game, despite claims of expertise. This is basically all that needs to be said. If the "experts" had a basic understanding of statistics and checked the betting odds before they went on air they'd all be way better at predicting (eg C9/TSM going 0-6 was statistically unlikely). Why is Monte considered an "eyeball test idiot" (whatever the fuck that means)? Because he said he "would never count out Hais ability to pull out a win due to epic shot calling" when asked if c9 would go 0-6? Or was it when he said it was possible (just possible) that TSM wouldn't win a game? Neither statement is even remotely unreasonable given what we knew a fortnight ago. The game isn't about statistics. The game isn't about flipping a coin 1000 times and having it come up heads more times than tails. It's absolutely possible to watch performances of players and teams, judge how well they react and execute and then make a call on their relative strength compared to opponents they're facing. Not to mention I don't remember a single post by any of the analyst haters here bigging up c9 or predicting LGD would crash and burn. Feel free to put up or shut up next time.
He didn't say it was possible, he said he didn't think they would win a single game which implies at least over 50 percent chance probably more knowing Monte.
Which is a perfect example of what I was complaining about in my earlier posts. I don't actually think Monte is stupid enough to have thought there was over a 50 percent chance that TSM wouldn't win a single game, and yet he makes a statement that is only justified if he did think so.
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That is really cool! Shame I don't have BBC3 here in NL.
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KOO 3-0, CLG 1-2, FW 2-1 and tie break to FW.
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Australia18228 Posts
I hope CLG advances, I think theyll be better than FW playing in a Bo5
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How did KOO become the favorite for this bo1.
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On October 08 2015 21:07 LimpingGoat wrote: How did KOO become the favorite for this bo1.
When they beat them last Bo1 and CLG hasn't looked good in any game they've played?
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On October 08 2015 21:07 Numy wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2015 21:07 LimpingGoat wrote: How did KOO become the favorite for this bo1. When they beat them last Bo1 and CLG hasn't looked good in any game they've played?
KOO's looked crap as well though.
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East Gorteau22261 Posts
On October 08 2015 21:07 Numy wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2015 21:07 LimpingGoat wrote: How did KOO become the favorite for this bo1. When they beat them last Bo1 and CLG hasn't looked good in any game they've played?
But #NAFaith
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East Gorteau22261 Posts
On October 08 2015 21:08 LimpingGoat wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2015 21:07 Numy wrote:On October 08 2015 21:07 LimpingGoat wrote: How did KOO become the favorite for this bo1. When they beat them last Bo1 and CLG hasn't looked good in any game they've played? KOO's looked crap as well though.
Steak's hair has looked absolutely amazing, though
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On October 08 2015 21:08 LimpingGoat wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2015 21:07 Numy wrote:On October 08 2015 21:07 LimpingGoat wrote: How did KOO become the favorite for this bo1. When they beat them last Bo1 and CLG hasn't looked good in any game they've played? KOO's looked crap as well though.
Except in the CLG game where KOO stomped CLG so hard. I agree KOO hasn't looked that good vs other teams.
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On October 08 2015 21:08 LimpingGoat wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2015 21:07 Numy wrote:On October 08 2015 21:07 LimpingGoat wrote: How did KOO become the favorite for this bo1. When they beat them last Bo1 and CLG hasn't looked good in any game they've played? KOO's looked crap as well though.
Not against CLG they didn't
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Australia18228 Posts
Not even Crumbzz has faith. RIP CLG
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Omg . . .
Screw this casting pairing
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