EPTThe China Politics Thread - Page 16
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Erasme
Bahamas15899 Posts
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emperorchampion
Canada9496 Posts
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pebble444
Italy2497 Posts
It’s almost as if they have this background program in their mind saying “don’ t think freely, that’s dangerous” And if that is the case, can’ t even blame them, but the goverment, for years and years of propaganda, brainwashing, and hiding evident truths. Tienamin square 1989 comes to mind for example, as there is no greater example of goverment cover up. Actually not even cover up, but probably the goverment is telling a story to make them look good, while the information I have is a tank running over a peaceful university student that is standing up for their rights. Makes me think there is no cure at this point, the sooner the goverment falls there, the better off actual citizens and human beings will be. Imagine how a free Chinese citizen would be able to live it’s life, compared to the oppression and 1984ism that is going on there right now, as we speak | ||
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Ardias
Russian Federation605 Posts
On June 15 2022 04:37 pebble444 wrote: Makes me think there is no cure at this point, the sooner the goverment falls there, the better off actual citizens and human beings will be. Imagine how a free Chinese citizen would be able to live it’s life, compared to the oppression and 1984ism that is going on there right now, as we speak Not exactly the case. In Russia a lot of people thought the same after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and these protests were also mostly led by intelligencia, but the rapid fall of the existing government and economy system led to political and economical anarchy in most of post Soviet-states, where a lot of people were literally starving for a decade, which led to the support of the authocratic or oligarchic regimes in most of these states, because people stopped caring about democracy and freedoms, they cared about what they and their children would eat tomorrow. In the meantime, all financial streams flew into the hands of either organized crime or simply shady enterpreneurs, which later formed the core of the political and economical elites on the most territory of the former Soviet Union, On the other hand, Chinese government halted these movements at Tiananmen square, and enjoyed a rapid economic growth during three decades after that. A lot of Chinese, comparing their situation with the one of their neighbours, could think that their government has made the right choice. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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5Drush
3 Posts
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[JXSA].Zergling
China186 Posts
As long as the living standard continues to improve and the people's education level has also been improved (now there are 10million college graduates every year), there will be other higher demands. I don't know what will happen in 20 years. At present, the biggest problem facing China is the population problem. This year, the death population will exceed the birth population. China's population will have a negative growth from 2022. In the past 20 years, the annual birth rate has decreased from 18million to 10million, which will continue to decrease. Population aging will be a very serious problem. The amount of social security paid by young people is not enough to provide for the elderly. This problem has occurred in several provinces in China. | ||
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Sermokala
United States13859 Posts
On June 15 2022 12:25 [JXSA].Zergling wrote: Did the Iraq war make people's living standards better? Did the war in Afghanistan make people's living standards better? China has a population of 1.4 billion. If there were turmoil and civil war in China, there would not be as few as millions of refugees. There might be hundreds of millions of refugees. The improvement of the living standards of the Chinese people has been a matter of nearly 30 years. Our previous generation also suffered from hunger. For the Chinese people now, especially under the current epidemic situation, the biggest appeal is to have a good living standard, education, medical care and housing conditions. As long as the living standard continues to improve and the people's education level has also been improved (now there are 10million college graduates every year), there will be other higher demands. I don't know what will happen in 20 years. At present, the biggest problem facing China is the population problem. This year, the death population will exceed the birth population. China's population will have a negative growth from 2022. In the past 20 years, the annual birth rate has decreased from 18million to 10million, which will continue to decrease. Population aging will be a very serious problem. The amount of social security paid by young people is not enough to provide for the elderly. This problem has occurred in several provinces in China. I don't want to dig into it but yeah the wars did make their living standards better. Its not the USA's fault that the people didn't want to have a functioning government. Women actually went to school and had freedoms in Afghanistan at the least and they can't leave their homes now that we've left. Iraq may be in a state of perpetual termoil due to the euros carving straight lines in the desert but peoples interests are actually being represented more than Chinese people get representation. But people shouldn't sleep on the end of this guys post. China has the fastest ageing population in all human history and they're facing a demographic bomb the likes of which the world has never seen before. People are saying seriously that the Chinese population will halve in the next 30 years. Chinese levels of education by workforce is still horrid by even middle income standards. 10m a year isn't that great when you're working with a billion people. the majority of the Chinese workforce for its economic boom has been uneducated migrant workers from the interior coming in droves to fill factory jobs. They're running out of those people now and never invested in those rural areas to make them productive on the level of their urban areas. | ||
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5Drush
3 Posts
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Ardias
Russian Federation605 Posts
On June 15 2022 05:45 JimmiC wrote: It would probably be hard to look at Hong Kong and Taiwan and think our government made the right choice. Unless of course you had a very skewed look based on information fed to you by those in power since childhood. Taiwan up to the 1988 was an autocratic regime, that was oppressing its citizens (though their living standards under Chiang Kai-Shek and his son were still miles better than in mainland China at this point). After that, quality of life in mainland China was growing more rapidly than in Taiwan, if we compare the starting conditions at 1988. Comparing a city with an economy focused on finances and trade with a whole country, whose economy is focused more on production is not entirely correct. The more accurate comparison of Hong Kong would be with Shanghai or Beijing for example. If you talked about civil liberties, rather than economic progress, then there is also a national mentality to consider. 5Drush wrote some about it in the post above. And that what I was talking about in my post, in response to the phrase "the sooner government falls, the better citizens will be". When you rapidly collapse a government and political system of a giant country with internal national issues and population that isn't accustomed to self-governance and has fundamental views, and then leave them be, it is naive to expect that they would soon somehow build a prosperous and flourishing democracy. | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17238 Posts
On June 15 2022 01:35 emperorchampion wrote: Eh, the bolded part in particular isn't important - it's about the overall cost/benefit. Not only on ticket sales but also overall economic activity. (I have no idea about the overall numbers but at least prior to covid it must have been a net positive otherwise it wouldn't be pursued by a rational government.) Economic arguments aside, high speed rail likely reduces carbon emissions, especially compared to air travel. I have also bolded out an important part. You assume that the Chinese government acts rationally  Sure, building all those railways was a big stimulus for growth and a show of power but in the end it's not super profitable. Governments tend to overvalue high speed rail: https://thediplomat.com/2020/11/chinas-bri-and-its-high-speed-railways-to-nowhere/ And here's an interesting article analysing Chinese investments in rail, which shows problems even as far back as 11 years ago (when the article was published): https://chinadialogue.net/en/transport/4438-end-of-the-high-speed-myth/ | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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emperorchampion
Canada9496 Posts
On June 15 2022 21:12 Manit0u wrote: I have also bolded out an important part. You assume that the Chinese government acts rationally I suppose that corruption can get in the way Sure, building all those railways was a big stimulus for growth and a show of power but in the end it's not super profitable. Governments tend to overvalue high speed rail: https://thediplomat.com/2020/11/chinas-bri-and-its-high-speed-railways-to-nowhere/ This opinion piece is suggesting that other governments may have made mistakes in (1) connecting to China with high speed rail when they perhaps can't afford it and (2) having a Chinese company build domestic rail network. The arguments regarding Indonesia in particular seem really flimsy (2 hrs under light traffic - what if it's heavy? also again, environmental impacts are not considered at all). Regardless, these are not arguments for why the rail network is bad for China, rather it seems the opposite. And here's an interesting article analysing Chinese investments in rail, which shows problems even as far back as 11 years ago (when the article was published): https://chinadialogue.net/en/transport/4438-end-of-the-high-speed-myth/ Safety is definitely a concern, but apparently the overall safety record is fairly good (see the wiki, with NYT cited: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-speed_rail_in_China). I'm not intimately familiar with the economics of the rail, but again, I think it makes sense to look at the overall cost/benefit of the rail system. One estimate seems to suggest that it's a net positive (https://macropolo.org/digital-projects/high-speed-rail/introduction/). Maybe some of the Chinese posters have a better idea about the economics of the situation. | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17238 Posts
On June 15 2022 23:53 emperorchampion wrote: I'm not intimately familiar with the economics of the rail, but again, I think it makes sense to look at the overall cost/benefit of the rail system. Rail in general is a very good system that's useful for transporting large numbers of people and cargo reliably (railroads are USA's most profitable industry). High speed rail seems to not be as profitable though. Studies have found that high‐speed trains can generate new economic development near the stations where the trains stop. However, the same studies show that economic development slows in communities not served by such trains. On a nationwide basis, high‐speed rail is thus a zero‐sum gain: as a study of the proposed California high‐speed rail line concluded, “The economic development impacts of the California HSR project are likely to be more redistributive than generative. Far from boosting the economy, most countries that have built high‐speed rail systems have gone heavily into debt to do so. Even if the first lines make economic sense, political pressures demand that the countries build more and more lines that are less and less sensible. Financing these lines requires huge amounts of debt that can significantly harm the national economies. China has built more miles of high‐speed rail than any other country and has gone more into debt doing it. At the end of 2019, China’s state railway had nearly $850 billion worth of debt, and most of its high‐speed rail lines aren’t covering their operating costs, much less their capital costs. As a result, China is slowing the rate at which it is constructing new lines. So if Chinese railways were very heavy into debt pre-covid and their hsr couldn't even cover their operating costs imagine what their economic situation must be now with all the lockdowns, less people using mass transit systems etc. Some sources: https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/high-speed-money-sink-why-united-states-should-not-spend-trillions-obsolete https://ajot.com/news/railroads-are-usas-most-profitable-industry-with-a-50-profit-margin https://www.lek.com/insights/ei/high-speed-rail-profitability | ||
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emperorchampion
Canada9496 Posts
On June 16 2022 01:32 Manit0u wrote: Rail in general is a very good system that's useful for transporting large numbers of people and cargo reliably (railroads are USA's most profitable industry). High speed rail seems to not be as profitable though. So if Chinese railways were very heavy into debt pre-covid and their hsr couldn't even cover their operating costs imagine what their economic situation must be now with all the lockdowns, less people using mass transit systems etc. Some sources: https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/high-speed-money-sink-why-united-states-should-not-spend-trillions-obsolete https://ajot.com/news/railroads-are-usas-most-profitable-industry-with-a-50-profit-margin https://www.lek.com/insights/ei/high-speed-rail-profitability I agree that traditional rail is likely better when it comes to transporting other stuff. All mass transit has taken a hit over the last few years. Problem is that mass transit seems very necessary to reduce dependance on fossil fuels, and will likely rebound over the next few months. But yeah in the end I agree it's reasonable to be doubtful about high speed rail's pay off over the next few years, especially if countries build too many networks. | ||
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Ardias
Russian Federation605 Posts
On June 15 2022 21:56 JimmiC wrote: The USSR states are actually doing quite well a lot better than they were under USSR control. You think Poland, East Germany and so on want USSR back? Many believe Russia big reason to attack the Ukraine is because it, with way less resources, was starting to have have a middle class and poor that was doing better off than Russia. As for Iraq, that is just silly, they had it awful under Sadam and it really has not overall gotten better, just depends on what group you are a part of. If you were to poll people in HK or Taiwan, how many want to be under the CCP control? progress is great but if you are 7/10 and were a 6/10 are you looking at the people that were a 1/10 and are now a 3/10 and saying maybe we want them it is more progress? Also, you surely are not if you are Uighur, Tibetan, basically any religion. I'm sure there are many Han Chinese who are happy with the status quo. But really no one has any idea of how many because it is not like you can run a poll. Everything on that is presumption because the government will not let it happen, to the point where public criticism will land you in jail. It is fine to point out the economic gain, it is fine to point that much of that gain has gone to the billionaire class and some to the people. It is great to point out all the good and the bad. Things are not black and white, there is a ton of grey. I'm not sure why you are mentioning Poland and East Germany when I was talking precisely about USSR and the states it fell apart into. As for them - you could only speculate, what USSR would be like if it existed now. My point was people were so sick of the chaos that followed, that they often were ready to support anyone, who could provide stable economical environment and food on the table. That's why even Putin still has much support from people, especially the elderly, who remember the 90's well and trust the person who ended that shitfest (or, at least, has such image). Ukraine war has nothing to do with living standards, on average they were the same, with no indication of rapid Ukraine economy growth (an that I know from my own experience and experience of people I actually know from the both sides of the border) Also in this conversation I've never said anything about Iraq. Again, I'm not sure why you in your first post you talk about the opinion of mainlaind China population towards Hong Kong and Taiwan, and in second you talk about opinion of Hong Kong and Taiwan population towards mainland China. Of course Hong Kong and Taiwan wouldn't want Chinese control over them, since they are accustomed to the way they live and they are richer at the moment. But it doesn't mean mainland China population would want to rush into Taibei governance, since they see how rapidly their own life improved in last few decades (it would be more like from 0,5/10 to 5/10) and they don't have the reason to distrust their government to provide them with further prosperity. And about wealth distribution - CIA Gini index gives China 38,2% and Taiwan - 33,6%. Not that far apart, and in fact it is lower that US (41,4%). https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/gini-coefficient-by-country As for minorities - yeah, you either Han, or in trouble. CCP learned from USSR, which was supporting national ethnicity and national elites, and it led to it's downfall. So they don't want that kind of trouble for themselves. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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[JXSA].Zergling
China186 Posts
My grandparents hated the United States and Japan. Some of their elders died in the war and were educated to hate the United States and Japan。 My parents' generation is not much worse. When they were young, they lived in poverty, and later they got better I didn't need to worry about food when I was a child. My life has been much better, but I also need to study politics when I was studying. Maybe the world has this course for China and North Korea. My children's life is better now. The food is very good. They will be provided with different fruits for each meal. Many children have mobile phones and computers. Their own savings amount to tens of thousands of yuan, which was unthinkable when we were young.Now there is no political course in the school. It has been changed to morality and legal system. In fact, in addition to the central government, governments at all levels are often criticized. In the current network age and information age, as long as it is exposed to the whole society, local government officials are often dismissed or imprisoned for improper handling. Of course, we often roast about why the government does not deal with the problems in advance and only remedy them after they are exposed by the media. As for Hong Kong, the mainlanders are also dissatisfied. During the financial crisis, they need the help and protection of the mainland, but they are not grateful. They only want rights but not obligations. Older people feel that they belong to China, while young people may feel that they are not Chinese. In the 1990s, the Mainlanders may envy Hong Kong's economic development. Now they find that Hong Kong people actually live in a small house of 10 square meters, The income is only enough to live. It is far worse than the mainland. No one envies Hong Kong any more. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23130 Posts
Hong Kong people actually live in a small house of 10 square meters, The income is only enough to live. It is far worse than the mainland. No one envies Hong Kong any more. I remember reading/watching about the cage homes there about a decade ago (the juxtaposition of abject poverty and obscene wealth is something else), Hong Kong certainly has problems of their own making not caused by the mainland government. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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