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On October 31 2025 23:43 Jankisa wrote:
To me, I lost hope in anything really happening in Russia for a few reasons:
1. China is happy to prop them up and get them in an even more subservient posture
2. Russians haven't even started going into serious debt, their Debt-to-GDP is still under 25 %
3. Russian people have incredible tolerance for hardship and from their perspective, a lot of them took this war as a boon, a lot of employment in the Military industry, huge bonuses for families and soldiers signing up
4. No matter what, they will have the ability to export a lot of stuff and plenty of countries willing to do business with them
Yes, they are facing huge demographic issues down the line, they are under sanctions, they will have issues maintaining a lot of stuff, but none of those things look to me like it could collapse the 11th largest economy of the world any time soon.
As always, I'll preface this by saying that I hope I'm wrong and nothing would make me happier then for someone to change my mind.
1. China is playing on both fronts. Also, there's no love lost between the two as China is eyeing up Siberia for annexation.
2. Russia hasn't gone too much into debt because they had huge reserves. Those are now gone and no one can say how exactly all of this is going to affect them since they didn't have to worry about such things recently, being a major fuel and food exporter, having surplus money at all times. Now they're running on a deficit and became importers instead of exporters so it's a completely new situation for them as this can dramatically change how things operate within the country.
3. This is also a double-edged sword. Sure, there is more employment in the military industry but it means people are being sucked out of other industries. So, for every happy guy building tanks there's one less guy making bread. To make matters worse it seems they can't really keep up the full war economy any longer as big players in the military complex have started shutting down and firing people recently.
4. Like mentioned in point #2 they don't really have the ability to export as much as they could. They are now net importers of fuel and food which were their major exports. Due to sanctions also less and less countries want to do business with them in fear of getting hit with secondary sanctions themselves. They're pretty much relegated to using shadow fleets and trading in secret or at a huge discount in worthless currencies. Not sure if they might also be facing some other repercussions for failing international contracts since they were supposed to deliver military equipment to some countries but couldn't make it because it all went poof in the war.
Russia's situation is pretty dire. Due to how docile and brainwashed their population is from generations of soviet propaganda and lifestyle they'll be able to bear it far longer than any western country - how long before they can't prop it up any more and their house of cards collapses is anyone's guess though.
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I'd like to see the logic behind thinking that either side will be collapsing.
So far the conflict is kept in equilibrium by support of 3rd parties.
Barring big policy change in the west or China it might continue this way for another decade.
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I would be shocked if China stops this level of support for Russia until there is nothing left for them to gain. They are massively gaining right now, from cheap oil, to global power projection and everything in between. If it goes a couple more years, Russia relationship with China will likely parallel Belarus relationship with Russia.
It will be a very confusing time for Zeo as he will be telling us of the glory of the far left.
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United States43195 Posts
Imagine for a minute Zeo had a time machine and he used it to go back four years to 3 months before the invasion. He let the Russian generals know that they need not worry about the outcome of the war, he could reassure them that they took Pokrovsk. I’m not sure that they would be as triumphant as he is. They might have some questions like “you mean the Pokrovsk that is 50 miles from the current DPR frontline?” and “what happened to the armies sent to Kyiv, Kherson, and Kharkiv?” There’s a risk that they might not consider this to be the same kind of victory that he does. Not after four years of hard fighting and a million casualties.
In any case it’s just a hypothetical as Russia has not taken Pokrovsk.
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Russian Federation170 Posts
In any case it’s just a hypothetical as Russia has not taken Pokrovsk.
Pokrovsk and Kupyansk are in a cauldron, it's just a matter of days
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On November 01 2025 20:35 EEk1TwEEk wrote:Pokrovsk and Kupyansk are in a cauldron, it's just a matter of days
They said similar things a year ago. They also said the same thing about Bakhmut and it took them 9 months to take it.
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On November 01 2025 14:49 KwarK wrote:
Imagine for a minute Zeo had a time machine and he used it to go back four years to 3 months before the invasion. He let the Russian generals know that they need not worry about the outcome of the war, he could reassure them that they took Pokrovsk. I’m not sure that they would be as triumphant as he is. They might have some questions like “you mean the Pokrovsk that is 50 miles from the current DPR frontline?” and “what happened to the armies sent to Kyiv, Kherson, and Kharkiv?” There’s a risk that they might not consider this to be the same kind of victory that he does. Not after four years of hard fighting and a million casualties.
In any case it’s just a hypothetical as Russia has not taken Pokrovsk.
Quite the imagination you have.
Also, funny you should mention the Russians not taking Pokrovsk when most of it is under Russian control. Going into semantics over whether 70% physical control of a town warrants the term 'taken' is not the point here. Lets take a look at a neutral map:
While the entirety of Pokrovsk is not under Russian control take a look at which parts are, now take a look at the size of the blue bottleneck made up of only fields in the middle of mud season. Myrnograd is mostly blue, around 46.000 people used to live there before the war, a lot of Ukrainian soldiers were stationed in Pokrovsk and Myrnograd. How many of them are keeping Myrnograd blue?
Interesting video started circulating yesterday and NAFO accounts started posting footage of black hawk helicopters unloading GRU special forces inside Pokrovsk for unblocking ops. A few hours later Russian drone groups posted footage confirming hits on all 11 GRU operators that exited the heli. New Zealander AMK gave a really detailed rundown of geolocations and which groups went where:
Now, why would an army risk rare equipment and suicide their best of the best to ease the operational encirclement of a town with no soldiers in it? The war whores are about to find out the cost of their 'not one step back from PR cities' internet chest thumping, though they won't be the ones paying it so its easy not to give a shit how much it costs to stay somewhere when you should have left months ago.
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United States43195 Posts
This is literally my point. Triumphalism over 70% of Pokrovsk is a very substantial revision in goalposts. You’re here telling me you got all 11 of the special forces from the helicopter? Again, tell the Russian general that four years ago and he might not be so impressed with your successes.
The idea that this is what winning looks like is very extreme cope.
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The problem with the maps you posted is that it shows any territory where Russians have ever set foot as Russian controlled. Contested territory is not controlled territory so Russia does not hold most of Pokrovsk.
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It's funny how every time something like this happens I open the "neutral" news site who likes to give lip service to Russian propaganda because there is a lot of brainwashed people here in Croatia too and there is the same video that our buddy here rushed to post as soon as he found it because he seems to think it means something.
Go back 3 months, 6 months, a year, everyone here who is a "NAFO" supporter or whatever stupid nickname the Orks gave it has been saying that Pokrovsk falling after 2 years of "any moment now" means absolutely nothing.
But you can keep ignoring that and posting random "oh, look, a propaganda video showing a bad thing for Ukraine happening" and pretending like that is a big deal, if that makes you feel better.
Anything not to pay attention to what is happening in your own country, ha bub. 
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The only thing I'm really wondering about is why Ukraine hasn't evacuated Pokrovsk (not abandoning, evacuating the civilians). It's a big hindrance for them now because Russians being Russians commit more war crimes by dressing their soldiers as civilians and infiltrating deep into the city and Ukrainians don't shoot civilians.
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United States43195 Posts
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On November 01 2025 22:30 Manit0u wrote:
The only thing I'm really wondering about is why Ukraine hasn't evacuated Pokrovsk (not abandoning, evacuating the civilians). It's a big hindrance for them now because Russians being Russians commit more war crimes by dressing their soldiers as civilians and infiltrating deep into the city and Ukrainians don't shoot civilians.
Pokrovsk had a pre war population of 60k people. Only a few months ago that number was 7000. Now it's 1200. The town has been evacuated as far as they can, but some people tend to choose to stay for longer than they should. Evacuating the remaining 1200 now would be impossible
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In other news:
Moscow got hit with drones again. An entire district was in a blackout.
Also near Moscow they sabotaged the main pipeline (3 pipes) that delivers diesel, jet fuel and gasoline.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/63422
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EPT![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4qnIcgXYAAOeUK?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/B5l92hB.png)
