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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets. Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source. | ||
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spets1
148 Posts
On August 22 2025 22:01 KwarK wrote: Surrender isn’t a deal. I guess zelensky views it as surrender because Russia's demands are pretty high up there. That's why I said the war is likely to continue because both sides view anything else as a surrender, loss. The action on the battlefield will decide the outcome. Crazy times | ||
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Yurie
12175 Posts
On August 22 2025 20:53 spets1 wrote: Who's winning the war at the moment? Most analysis I am seeing state Ukraine. Russia is winning a few km here or there on the ground but is burning through monetary and equipment reserves to do it. With current trends Russia goes broke before it wins on the ground, thus Ukraine is winning. | ||
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spets1
148 Posts
Lt Col Daniel Davis Youtube channel And Professor John Mersheimer various talks | ||
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Billyboy
2517 Posts
On August 22 2025 21:22 spets1 wrote: The military analysis I'm reading is that Russias advance is accelerating and if Ukraine/eu/us don't strike a deal soon, Russia will eventually overwhelm and might claim more than the four oblasts they planned to take Can you quote any of these military analysis? Not a single one I have read says anything close to that. Not enough men or equipment to take large parts of lands quickly. that the current pace looks like it will continue is always talked about. Also, Russia clearly always wanted all of Ukraine and has said as much. Their actions also indicate this goal. Where are you getting your info? And I love the idea Zeo just posted that there is large army of pro Russian lurkers that are way to scared to post because a couple people on here might write mean words. How are they going to win this war against the "west" if this is too much? Better pack it in. | ||
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Excludos
Norway8280 Posts
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Jankisa
Croatia1780 Posts
On August 22 2025 14:01 zeo wrote: Ahh, so you don't really go to jail for calling the SMO a war. You go to jail for being on the payroll of foriegn entities and enemies at a time of war. Weird how these cases slowed down when USAID money dried up, so wierd? Though the guy you linked that used to kidnap and torture drug addicts( and dealers) needed convincing the least. Glad we got that out of the way, feel free to go back to your low effort ad hominems Well, if you actually took the time to read any of the articles you would find 0 proof or even mentions of foreign entities or enemies, it's hilarious that you have the gall to call people around here for "conspiracies" when all you do is repeat them without spending one second to research or read. Also, the law gives administrative (fines) penalties to the small offenses such as calling the SMO a war, again, if you opened the first link, the guy was sentenced over saying that the massacre in Bucha was just that, he got 5 years. That is not treason, that is a statement of facts. Of course, in your conspiracy addled, brainwashed brain saying the truth is treason, so he deserved it. Just like those civilians in Bucha deserved it for being Ukrainian. | ||
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spets1
148 Posts
On August 22 2025 22:25 Excludos wrote: I think he's basing it on the "breakthrough" that happened last week, which went around the media cycle for all to see. The fact that it was beaten back isn't really reported a lot Grok for example estimates that Russia captured 6500 to 7000 sq km area from 2024 to now. Which is the size of Delaware, USA: The state of Delaware has an area of 6,446 square kilometers, making it almost exactly the same size as 6,500 square kilometers. | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5876 Posts
On August 22 2025 22:18 spets1 wrote: Lt Col Daniel Davis Youtube channel And Professor John Mersheimer various talks It's Russian propaganda. | ||
KwarK
United States44379 Posts
On August 22 2025 22:31 spets1 wrote: Grok for example estimates that Russia captured 6500 to 7000 sq km area from 2024 to now. Which is the size of Delaware, USA: The state of Delaware has an area of 6,446 square kilometers, making it almost exactly the same size as 6,500 square kilometers. I have no idea if you’re posting Delaware units to mean a lot or a little. How many football fields is it? | ||
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Velr
Switzerland10967 Posts
On August 22 2025 22:31 spets1 wrote: Grok for example estimates that Russia captured 6500 to 7000 sq km area from 2024 to now. Which is the size of Delaware, USA: The state of Delaware has an area of 6,446 square kilometers, making it almost exactly the same size as 6,500 square kilometers. So... Total area occupied is still lower than right after the russian attack but somehow they found another 6000 km² to add up to still end up with less than they had before the counter offensive 2 years ago? So much winning. | ||
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spets1
148 Posts
6,500 square kilometers is approximately 1.2 million American football fields. | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17850 Posts
On August 22 2025 22:47 spets1 wrote: These are the stats since 2024. The reason I'm posting since 2024 and not since the start of the war is to show which army is advancing and which is retreating recently. 6,500 square kilometers is approximately 1.2 million American football fields. I guess people don't realize how big Ukraine actually is. 6.500km^2 is about 1% of Ukraine. So, 1 year, tens of thousands dead, thousands of vehicles lost, billions spent and you got 1% closer to your goal... How long do you think Russia can keep this up? There's still plenty % to go. | ||
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0x64
Finland4647 Posts
We keep one Zeo here for a reason, to remind us that they exists, he is like our little pet but we don't need two, they might start breeding. | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17850 Posts
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spets1
148 Posts
On August 22 2025 22:55 Manit0u wrote: [ So, 1 year, tens of thousands dead, thousands of vehicles lost, billions spent and you got 1% closer to your goal... How long do you think Russia can keep this up? There's still plenty % to go. That depends whose propaganda is right. The Wests says Russia is gonna fail first. Russian propaganda says Ukraine going to fall soon. Just gonna have to wait and see unfortunately with more soldiers dying fighting corrupt wars | ||
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KwarK
United States44379 Posts
The initiative is with Russia as surrender is not an option for Ukraine. It’s incompatible with national survival and Russia has made it clear that the existence of a Ukrainian culture, language bloc, and identity, is a threat to their concept of their new empire. They mean to wipe it out. Within the occupied territories Ukrainians are bring forcefully dispersed and Russified. Ukraine cannot surrender and so their exhaustion threshold is extremely high. WW2 Soviet Union levels of high, albeit without the murderous police state. When Ukrainians are polled about what kind of peace they could accept there are many that would accept territorial changes such as ceding Crimea but basically none who would accept any agreement that disarmed and occupied Ukraine. They know the stakes, they can’t stop fighting. Russia is in a very different position. The stakes are personally very high for Putin and for his plan of a renewed Soviet Union but they’re very low for the average Russian or oligarch. The average Russian is apolitical, they don’t feel personally invested in Putin’s war. Russians are fighting for money. They’re watching with indifference as Putin steals and burns their national inheritance, their sovereign wealth fund, their oil money, their Soviet hardware, because they don’t really understand that it belongs to the Russian people. They don’t recognize that they ought to be as wealthy as Saudis because the wealth of Russia has always been stolen from Russians, this is just the latest example. Whether their hydrocarbon fortune is stolen by Putin for war or by oligarchs for palaces makes little difference to them, they never understood that it was being stolen, that it was theirs. But when that inheritance is fully spent Putin will have to start stealing more openly from Russians. They’re indifferent to sacrificing their national fortune but will care a great deal more if pensions are slashed. Especially if there remains no progress in the war and no expectation that it’ll end. Ukraine’s plan for winning looks like the war going long, Russian wealth getting depleted, slowly trading Ukrainian land, which they have an awful lot of, for Russian blood and steel. Russia’s plan for winning looks like an end to the war ASAP with disarmament of Ukraine. Doesn’t even need much in the way of territory, just disarmament, they get disarmament and they’ll betray wherever was agreed a year later. But right now they need to cut government spending because they’re overheating their economy and robbing Peter to pay Paul. What we’re seeing on the front aligns with Ukraine’s theory of victory, not Russia’s. | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17850 Posts
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Excludos
Norway8280 Posts
On August 22 2025 22:59 Manit0u wrote: In other news, reports are coming in now that Russia, of all countries, is now running out of fuel. Eastern and southern parts of Russia are experiencing frequent shortages, fuel is being rationed in some areas (fuel stamps), rising gas prices and there are even talks about starting the import of fuel. I hadn't heard about it so I was quite skeptical, but yeah apparently it's a thing: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/08/20/fuel-shortages-hit-russias-far-east-as-ukrainian-strikes-take-refineries-offline-a90300 This was not on my bingo card for 2025 | ||
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pmp10
3400 Posts
On August 22 2025 22:47 spets1 wrote: These are the stats since 2024. The reason I'm posting since 2024 and not since the start of the war is to show which army is advancing and which is retreating recently. 6,500 square kilometers is approximately 1.2 million American football fields. Ironically that's about as much as area of Donetsk that Ukraine still holds. Tells you a lot about the state of the war. | ||
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Billyboy
2517 Posts
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