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I know there are better things to do than to argue with zeo, but let's try for a change. Let's suppose zeo is right and Russia is good, then why: 1) did Russia do nothing militarily to help Serbia against Kosovo? 2) did Russia help but still let Assad fall in Syria? 3) did Russia let Iran be bombed by US and Israel?
How does lobbying for Russia help in any way? They clearly can't defend their allies, they're after their own interests only. Unless zeo wants Serbia to be consumed by Russia and wants to be ruled by Russian masters, then it's perfectly logical to lobby for imperialists.
Ideally you'd follow analysts from a wide range of different sources. Russian sources will want to push their own narrative, Ukrainian sources will want to push their own narrative, and then you have a whole bunch of third-party sources who might have their own agendas. Various Ukraine-adjacent or Russia-adjacent analysts will have their own blind spots and biases.
It's also very difficult to get an accurate idea of the strength of the different forces. Parts of the front might be favored towards Ukraine, or favored towards Russia, or undecided. This might change very rapidly. Or it might not.
In the last year or so, the Russian advance, when you look at certain sections of the frontline, has been slow, but has been an advance. Whether that'll translate into an actual operational breakthrough or not remains to be seen. Ukraine's recent issues have seemingly been rotating units away from the front, and bringing fresh units in, but it's hard to say how big of a problem this actually is. Russia's recent issues have been about bringing enough manpower and materiel to launch offensive operations. There's been a whole bunch of talk of small infiltration units breaching the Ukrainian front line near Pokrovsk, but whether that's led to a bigger breakthrough remains to be seen.
And more generally, are your analysts predicting doom and gloom in certain tactical sections, or at an operational level, or throughout the Ukrainian battlefield?
Well, it seems that Trump's administration wasn't very good for US arms dealers while European producers are surging rapidly. Also, Europe has scaled production very heavily, including sharing of components so that a single bottleneck doesn't break the supply chain.
On August 23 2025 06:43 spets1 wrote: Can you guys post some reputable military analysts the I can watch? All my current ones are predicting Ukraine doom and gloom on the battlefield
Is a pretty neutral look at things. Though it is 2 months old by now, not much has changed on the actual front.
Ukraine keeps targeting logistics behind the lines, especially oil in recent periods. Russia fires larger drone/missiles attacks past the front then ever.
On August 23 2025 06:43 spets1 wrote: Can you guys post some reputable military analysts the I can watch? All my current ones are predicting Ukraine doom and gloom on the battlefield
On August 23 2025 06:43 spets1 wrote: Can you guys post some reputable military analysts the I can watch? All my current ones are predicting Ukraine doom and gloom on the battlefield
I stopped following updates on war like RFU because he always sounds upbeat that Ukrainian genius is wrecking Russians. In the meantime, Putin thinks he is winning. Both sides think they are winning and in reality it's a stalemate. As long as Europe and world in general keep supporting Ukraine, there's not much reason for me to follow updates considering stalemate. I mean, not much is happening and free time is better spent elsewhere. Well, unless you are really into war stuff and it's not just for information.
Trump has been conned by Putin again and again believing Putin is looking for a peace deal mean while in reality Putin wants to continue the war. The fact that Trump still can't see that this speaks volumes about his incompetence as a leader being able to read the true intentions of Russia
On August 23 2025 23:22 Copymizer wrote: Trump has been conned by Putin again and again believing Putin is looking for a peace deal mean while in reality Putin wants to continue the war. The fact that Trump still can't see that this speaks volumes about his incompetence as a leader being able to read the true intentions of Russia
He's probably aware Putin is making him look like a weak fool, but he also knows half of American conservative influencers are getting paychecks from Russia and Russia losing would hurt MAGA too much to let that happen.
On August 23 2025 23:22 Copymizer wrote: Trump has been conned by Putin again and again believing Putin is looking for a peace deal mean while in reality Putin wants to continue the war. The fact that Trump still can't see that this speaks volumes about his incompetence as a leader being able to read the true intentions of Russia
He's probably aware Putin is making him look like a weak fool, but he also knows half of American conservative influencers are getting paychecks from Russia and Russia losing would hurt MAGA too much to let that happen.
You give him way to much credit. Did you catch the hot mic where he was like "he really wants to make a deal with me" like a child with his idol.
On August 22 2025 22:25 Excludos wrote: I think he's basing it on the "breakthrough" that happened last week, which went around the media cycle for all to see. The fact that it was beaten back isn't really reported a lot
Grok for example estimates that Russia captured 6500 to 7000 sq km area from 2024 to now. Which is the size of Delaware, USA:
The state of Delaware has an area of 6,446 square kilometers, making it almost exactly the same size as 6,500 square kilometers.
At its very core, the whole point of attritional warfare is not territory gained. Attritional war is the war of resources, who is able to replenish their losses more effectively and incur maximum damage while taking the minimum amount themselves. Any territory taken is taken to give one side the better vantage point to inflict more damage and cause the enemy more losses for staying there. You want to degrade the opposing military to the point where they cannot fight back anymore and you just take everything.
This was the story for the entirety of 2023 (Bahmut and the counteroffencive included). Ukraine had a large manpower advantage with the Russians in full defensive mode, Wagners actions in Bahmut buying time for the Surovikin line. The attritional war would grind on with advancements being measured in a few square km a day until the fall of Avdeevka and later the incursion of Kiev forces into Sudza. The rate of daily advance for Russian forces started slowly from 5km to 20, to what we have now, 30 square kilometers a day.
The main factor of the war today are drones. Ukraine has a powerful drone presence at the lines of contact but doesn't have enough men to physically man the positions they have. While the Russians have a clear manpower advantage drone warfare has advanced far enough that they cannot move in groups larger than 5 men without being spotted, they can advance in areas where the drone teams on the UKR side have been sufficiently degraded with their own drones, FABs and long range artillery. Drone teams are most effective when they are a part of a strong, echeloned line. When they know where the enemy is and where he will come through, you want a scenario where the area you need to cover is concentrated. The problem the Ukrainians had the other day with Russian DRGs penetrating 13km deep on foot over the course of a few days is now the drone teams don't know where the enemy is. Is he behind me, is he in front, to the left or to the right. The drone teams need to evacuate further back to set up again safely but now there are much less drones in that area and the enemy can come in with larger regular forces and set up shop.
Atrritional warfare is a slow push forward where you apply pressure on a wide front until the enemy can no longer plug their gaps with reserve forces, all the while you need to stay close to your safety bubble of artillery and drones to keep you safe from counter attacks. The rate of advance grows exponentially when there is no longer a need of a safety bubble. Tanks have also been mostly rendered useless at the front line at its current configuration besides the use of turtle tanks to soak up drones and break through minefields. Though tank production through the roof and now when the losses are minimal enough can be stockpiled for use when the front lines inevitably break.
On August 22 2025 22:25 Excludos wrote: I think he's basing it on the "breakthrough" that happened last week, which went around the media cycle for all to see. The fact that it was beaten back isn't really reported a lot
Grok for example estimates that Russia captured 6500 to 7000 sq km area from 2024 to now. Which is the size of Delaware, USA:
The state of Delaware has an area of 6,446 square kilometers, making it almost exactly the same size as 6,500 square kilometers.
At its very core, the whole point of attritional warfare is not territory gained. Attritional war is the war of resources, who is able to replenish their losses more effectively and incur maximum damage while taking the minimum amount themselves. Any territory taken is taken to give one side the better vantage point to inflict more damage and cause the enemy more losses for staying there. You want to degrade the opposing military to the point where they cannot fight back anymore and you just take everything.
This was the story for the entirety of 2023 (Bahmut and the counteroffencive included). Ukraine had a large manpower advantage with the Russians in full defensive mode, Wagners actions in Bahmut buying time for the Surovikin line. The attritional war would grind on with advancements being measured in a few square km a day until the fall of Avdeevka and later the incursion of Kiev forces into Sudza. The rate of daily advance for Russian forces started slowly from 5km to 20, to what we have now, 30 square kilometers a day.
The main factor of the war today are drones. Ukraine has a powerful drone presence at the lines of contact but doesn't have enough men to physically man the positions they have. While the Russians have a clear manpower advantage drone warfare has advanced far enough that they cannot move in groups larger than 5 men without being spotted, they can advance in areas where the drone teams on the UKR side have been sufficiently degraded with their own drones, FABs and long range artillery. Drone teams are most effective when they are a part of a strong, echeloned line. When they know where the enemy is and where he will come through, you want a scenario where the area you need to cover is concentrated. The problem the Ukrainians had the other day with Russian DRGs penetrating 13km deep on foot over the course of a few days is now the drone teams don't know where the enemy is. Is he behind me, is he in front, to the left or to the right. The drone teams need to evacuate further back to set up again safely but now there are much less drones in that area and the enemy can come in with larger regular forces and set up shop.
Atrritional warfare is a slow push forward where you apply pressure on a wide front until the enemy can no longer plug their gaps with reserve forces, all the while you need to stay close to your safety bubble of artillery and drones to keep you safe from counter attacks. The rate of advance grows exponentially when there is no longer a need of a safety bubble. Tanks have also been mostly rendered useless at the front line at its current configuration besides the use of turtle tanks to soak up drones and break through minefields. Though tank production through the roof and now when the losses are minimal enough can be stockpiled for use when the front lines inevitably break.
to give people a better understanding of the Art of War here.
On August 22 2025 22:25 Excludos wrote: I think he's basing it on the "breakthrough" that happened last week, which went around the media cycle for all to see. The fact that it was beaten back isn't really reported a lot
Grok for example estimates that Russia captured 6500 to 7000 sq km area from 2024 to now. Which is the size of Delaware, USA:
The state of Delaware has an area of 6,446 square kilometers, making it almost exactly the same size as 6,500 square kilometers.
At its very core, the whole point of attritional warfare is not territory gained. Attritional war is the war of resources, who is able to replenish their losses more effectively and incur maximum damage while taking the minimum amount themselves. Any territory taken is taken to give one side the better vantage point to inflict more damage and cause the enemy more losses for staying there. You want to degrade the opposing military to the point where they cannot fight back anymore and you just take everything.
This was the story for the entirety of 2023 (Bahmut and the counteroffencive included). Ukraine had a large manpower advantage with the Russians in full defensive mode, Wagners actions in Bahmut buying time for the Surovikin line. The attritional war would grind on with advancements being measured in a few square km a day until the fall of Avdeevka and later the incursion of Kiev forces into Sudza. The rate of daily advance for Russian forces started slowly from 5km to 20, to what we have now, 30 square kilometers a day.
The main factor of the war today are drones. Ukraine has a powerful drone presence at the lines of contact but doesn't have enough men to physically man the positions they have. While the Russians have a clear manpower advantage drone warfare has advanced far enough that they cannot move in groups larger than 5 men without being spotted, they can advance in areas where the drone teams on the UKR side have been sufficiently degraded with their own drones, FABs and long range artillery. Drone teams are most effective when they are a part of a strong, echeloned line. When they know where the enemy is and where he will come through, you want a scenario where the area you need to cover is concentrated. The problem the Ukrainians had the other day with Russian DRGs penetrating 13km deep on foot over the course of a few days is now the drone teams don't know where the enemy is. Is he behind me, is he in front, to the left or to the right. The drone teams need to evacuate further back to set up again safely but now there are much less drones in that area and the enemy can come in with larger regular forces and set up shop.
Atrritional warfare is a slow push forward where you apply pressure on a wide front until the enemy can no longer plug their gaps with reserve forces, all the while you need to stay close to your safety bubble of artillery and drones to keep you safe from counter attacks. The rate of advance grows exponentially when there is no longer a need of a safety bubble. Tanks have also been mostly rendered useless at the front line at its current configuration besides the use of turtle tanks to soak up drones and break through minefields. Though tank production through the roof and now when the losses are minimal enough can be stockpiled for use when the front lines inevitably break.
Its such a werid propaganda fueled one dimentional take. He hasn't even been told yet that the "breakthrough" was cut off and most of the units that broke through died already. Even then 13 square kilometers isn't that much when you've got a birds eye look at things and have the ability to systematically search the area. Someone thinking the information they receive on their own would be able to visualize that as a werid thing to say "well Ukraine now has lost the ability to know where anyone is now".
It's been an attritional war for Russia the entire time after the initial rush, and Ukraine has managed to pull off a few offensives that have worked and a couple that haven't. They've also cost Russia through diplomacy a lot domestically, and have shown Russians that the war can touch them. The war in the black sea has shown to be a wilder change to warfare than drones have been. "though tank production through the roof" is very clearly a mistranslated line with no real backing or evidence. Russia has never shown an ability to go on on combined arms offensive in the war successfully. When the lines have broken up they have been wrecked every time.
I think the problem is not that Trump is being conned or not. The problem is that the west is not listening to Russias demands, conditions for peace agreement. Which has been clearly stated from the start and very clearly since russia annexed those oblasts. Those conditions have not changed and have been constant. The demands may seem to be unacceptable to Ukraine and the west. But at least they are clear.
The west keeps ignoring the demands and has their own demands instead. If only they heard what the conditions are then everything else is very simple. They could say we don't agree or we agree.
The actions speak for themselves though there is no agreement so the war will go on and outcomes will be decided on the battlefield
On August 24 2025 08:16 spets1 wrote: to Russias demands, conditions for peace agreement. Which has been clearly stated from the start and very clearly since russia annexed those oblasts. Those conditions have not changed and have been constant. The demands may seem to be unacceptable to Ukraine and the west. But at least they are clear.
A demand for total surrender and annexation isn't an offer of a peace agreement.
They are listening. It's just that Russia's demands are untenable to anybody but an expansionistic imperialist. Demand Everything Compromise Nothing Wait for Trump to give for free what you never had in the first place as a 'compromise'.
Russia's most consistent demands: -Hand over Ukrainian territory for free that the Russians have failed to conquer. (Most recently they are demanding several of Ukraine's fortress cities that they have been unable to conquer and behind which would give Russia a clear path much deeper into Ukraine.) -Ukraine disarms -Ukraine forbidden from entering any defensive alliances.
Now unless the West thinks gift wrapping all of Ukraine to Russia, how can the West do anything but ignore these Anchluss-esque demands?