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On August 26 2024 21:09 zeo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2024 20:03 KwarK wrote:On August 26 2024 19:38 zeo wrote:On August 26 2024 18:47 WombaT wrote:On August 26 2024 18:35 zeo wrote:
What a morning. Seeing at least 65 confirmed direct hits all over Ukraine mostly aimed at the energy sector, shutdowns all over Ukraine.
Most seem to agree it is the largest amount of hits in one day since the start of the conflict, basically no air defence working. Seems like all those destroyed air defence systems werent decoys after all hmm.
edit: Also seems like today the entire settlement of Novgrodovka will come under Russian control in the Kransnoarmysk direction. Pre war population of 14 thousand with highrise buildings and it fell in days with minimal use of heavy equipment. Why do you sound almost gleeful at this development? Seems very neutral, not even compared to some of the comments here. The part where the obvious is stated regarding the air defence systems could be interpreted as my own opinion, sure. If any of you saw the F16s or the many patriot systems that havent been destroyed intercepting missiles please post them in the thread. On August 26 2024 18:52 Simberto wrote:On August 26 2024 18:47 WombaT wrote:On August 26 2024 18:35 zeo wrote:
What a morning. Seeing at least 65 confirmed direct hits all over Ukraine mostly aimed at the energy sector, shutdowns all over Ukraine.
Most seem to agree it is the largest amount of hits in one day since the start of the conflict, basically no air defence working. Seems like all those destroyed air defence systems werent decoys after all hmm.
edit: Also seems like today the entire settlement of Novgrodovka will come under Russian control in the Kransnoarmysk direction. Pre war population of 14 thousand with highrise buildings and it fell in days with minimal use of heavy equipment. Why do you sound almost gleeful at this development? zeo has been cheering on Russia from the beginning. He is salty that Nato stopped Serbia from genociding their neighbours in the 90s, so everybody who fights against Nato is always the good guy in his book. Im not a fan of violent regime change that lead to civil wars. Guilty as charged I guess They held elections after the Revolution of Dignity. Elections held after an unconstitutional and violent change of power by the people that banned the largest political parties in the country, persecuted large swaths of people opposed to them and banned all media that didnt comply is supposed to be an argument for what exactly in this context?
You're under a barrage of questions here, but I would like to know more about that bolded part if you have a source?
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On August 26 2024 23:15 Elroi wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2024 21:09 zeo wrote:On August 26 2024 20:03 KwarK wrote:On August 26 2024 19:38 zeo wrote:On August 26 2024 18:47 WombaT wrote:On August 26 2024 18:35 zeo wrote:
What a morning. Seeing at least 65 confirmed direct hits all over Ukraine mostly aimed at the energy sector, shutdowns all over Ukraine.
Most seem to agree it is the largest amount of hits in one day since the start of the conflict, basically no air defence working. Seems like all those destroyed air defence systems werent decoys after all hmm.
edit: Also seems like today the entire settlement of Novgrodovka will come under Russian control in the Kransnoarmysk direction. Pre war population of 14 thousand with highrise buildings and it fell in days with minimal use of heavy equipment. Why do you sound almost gleeful at this development? Seems very neutral, not even compared to some of the comments here. The part where the obvious is stated regarding the air defence systems could be interpreted as my own opinion, sure. If any of you saw the F16s or the many patriot systems that havent been destroyed intercepting missiles please post them in the thread. On August 26 2024 18:52 Simberto wrote:On August 26 2024 18:47 WombaT wrote:On August 26 2024 18:35 zeo wrote:
What a morning. Seeing at least 65 confirmed direct hits all over Ukraine mostly aimed at the energy sector, shutdowns all over Ukraine.
Most seem to agree it is the largest amount of hits in one day since the start of the conflict, basically no air defence working. Seems like all those destroyed air defence systems werent decoys after all hmm.
edit: Also seems like today the entire settlement of Novgrodovka will come under Russian control in the Kransnoarmysk direction. Pre war population of 14 thousand with highrise buildings and it fell in days with minimal use of heavy equipment. Why do you sound almost gleeful at this development? zeo has been cheering on Russia from the beginning. He is salty that Nato stopped Serbia from genociding their neighbours in the 90s, so everybody who fights against Nato is always the good guy in his book. Im not a fan of violent regime change that lead to civil wars. Guilty as charged I guess They held elections after the Revolution of Dignity. Elections held after an unconstitutional and violent change of power by the people that banned the largest political parties in the country, persecuted large swaths of people opposed to them and banned all media that didnt comply is supposed to be an argument for what exactly in this context? You're under a barrage of questions here, but I would like to know more about that bolded part if you have a source?
Not Zeo, but check out this article for starters (ok, it's biased, but so is everything). Also found this from NPR.
Some of the links have been memory-holed since then, but can be dug up on the Wayback Machine, or by Googling/Yandexing.
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On August 26 2024 22:11 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2024 21:55 Manit0u wrote:On August 26 2024 18:35 zeo wrote:
What a morning. Seeing at least 65 confirmed direct hits all over Ukraine mostly aimed at the energy sector, shutdowns all over Ukraine.
Most seem to agree it is the largest amount of hits in one day since the start of the conflict, basically no air defence working. Seems like all those destroyed air defence systems werent decoys after all hmm.
To me this looks a bit like a desperation move on the side of Russians. The attacks on the infrastructure are truly devastating during the heating season in the autumn/winter. Doing it in the middle of summer is much less effective and it gives Ukraine time to repair the damage before winter. What I'm more worried about is Belarus amassing troops at the border "for exercise" which is straight from the Russian playbook. So far they've been pretty reluctant to join the conflict but I have no idea what's going through Lukashenko's mind right now. Is he secretly hoping that Ukraine will weaken Russia enough to strengthen his own position or is he now afraid that if Russia somehow falls he'll lose the backing he needs to stay in power? Other possibilities: Putin has him by the balls somehow and has finally decided to grab and pull unless he joins the war. Or he just noticed Ukrainian troops invading a not-well defended area of Russia and is making sure the same doesn't happen to his staging ground for Russian troops. Not likely to happen, but also not something i would risk by looking weak at the border. We will see what happens. It seems very unlikely that Lukashenko has any interest in joining Putins war, given how that is currently going. The question is if Putin can force him to do so.
Belarus has 2 full strength mechanized brigades and 2 understrength brigades, an airmobile brigade and special forces.
Their total active military is 63.000 across all branches.
They have also sent a lot their heavy equipment to Russia during the conflict, the latest batch recently to Kursk.
There have also been reports that there is no drone units and no real EW protection.
Current military exercise was 1100 soldiers 50km from the border.
Unless they start full scale mobilisation of their 350k reserve I don't think they are a real credible threat to Ukraine in this conflict and everyone would know if they did.
For sure one understrength brigade trying to march across the border would be destroyed in days.
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On August 27 2024 00:56 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2024 22:11 Simberto wrote:On August 26 2024 21:55 Manit0u wrote:On August 26 2024 18:35 zeo wrote:
What a morning. Seeing at least 65 confirmed direct hits all over Ukraine mostly aimed at the energy sector, shutdowns all over Ukraine.
Most seem to agree it is the largest amount of hits in one day since the start of the conflict, basically no air defence working. Seems like all those destroyed air defence systems werent decoys after all hmm.
To me this looks a bit like a desperation move on the side of Russians. The attacks on the infrastructure are truly devastating during the heating season in the autumn/winter. Doing it in the middle of summer is much less effective and it gives Ukraine time to repair the damage before winter. What I'm more worried about is Belarus amassing troops at the border "for exercise" which is straight from the Russian playbook. So far they've been pretty reluctant to join the conflict but I have no idea what's going through Lukashenko's mind right now. Is he secretly hoping that Ukraine will weaken Russia enough to strengthen his own position or is he now afraid that if Russia somehow falls he'll lose the backing he needs to stay in power? Other possibilities: Putin has him by the balls somehow and has finally decided to grab and pull unless he joins the war. Or he just noticed Ukrainian troops invading a not-well defended area of Russia and is making sure the same doesn't happen to his staging ground for Russian troops. Not likely to happen, but also not something i would risk by looking weak at the border. We will see what happens. It seems very unlikely that Lukashenko has any interest in joining Putins war, given how that is currently going. The question is if Putin can force him to do so. Belarus has 2 full strength mechanized brigades and 2 understrength brigades, an airmobile brigade and special forces. Their total active military is 63.000 across all branches. They have also sent a lot their heavy equipment to Russia during the conflict, the latest batch recently to Kursk. There have also been reports that there is no drone units and no real EW protection. Current military exercise was 1100 soldiers 50km from the border. Unless they start full scale mobilisation of their 350k reserve I don't think they are a real credible threat to Ukraine in this conflict and everyone would know if they did. For sure one understrength brigade trying to march across the border would be destroyed in days.
The thing we have seen in this conflict is that 300 men crossing the boundary at the wrong moment can really be a pain in the ass :D
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zeo was wrong about 65 "confirmed" hits, the stats are:
1/3 Kinzhal Kh-47M2 aeroballistic missiles
1/6 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
1/1 Kh-22 cruise missile
99/115 Kh-101/Kalibr/Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
99/109 Shahed drones“
This was a big attack, good shoot downs by ukraine imo, just bad at dealing with the ballistic missiles, maybe they got overwhelmed by the amount of stuff at the same time. Russia will need to wait until the end of the year to do another attack of this size.
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On August 26 2024 18:35 zeo wrote:
What a morning. Seeing at least 65 confirmed direct hits all over Ukraine mostly aimed at the energy sector, shutdowns all over Ukraine.
Most seem to agree it is the largest amount of hits in one day since the start of the conflict, basically no air defence working. Seems like all those destroyed air defence systems werent decoys after all hmm.
edit: Also seems like today the entire settlement of Novgrodovka will come under Russian control in the Kransnoarmysk direction. Pre war population of 14 thousand with highrise buildings and it fell in days with minimal use of heavy equipment.
Yeah mostly civilian targets, energy sector and water facilities.
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On August 27 2024 03:51 sertas wrote:
zeo was wrong about 65 "confirmed" hits, the stats are:
1/3 Kinzhal Kh-47M2 aeroballistic missiles
1/6 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
1/1 Kh-22 cruise missile
99/115 Kh-101/Kalibr/Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
99/109 Shahed drones“
This was a big attack, good shoot downs by ukraine imo, just bad at dealing with the ballistic missiles, maybe they got overwhelmed by the amount of stuff at the same time. Russia will need to wait until the end of the year to do another attack of this size. For what is being reported as one of the biggest missile attacks since the start of the war its very possible the air defence got overwhelmed in places.
Makes me wonder why Russia chose now to do this.
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On August 27 2024 06:25 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On August 27 2024 03:51 sertas wrote:
zeo was wrong about 65 "confirmed" hits, the stats are:
1/3 Kinzhal Kh-47M2 aeroballistic missiles
1/6 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
1/1 Kh-22 cruise missile
99/115 Kh-101/Kalibr/Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
99/109 Shahed drones“
This was a big attack, good shoot downs by ukraine imo, just bad at dealing with the ballistic missiles, maybe they got overwhelmed by the amount of stuff at the same time. Russia will need to wait until the end of the year to do another attack of this size. For what is being reported as one of the biggest missile attacks since the start of the war its very possible the air defence got overwhelmed in places. Makes me wonder why Russia chose now to do this.
It's a country ruled by strongmen. They have to show strength in the face of the Kursk offensive. And this is about the only thing they can do to accomplish a show of strength. History has shown that you have to keep up these strategic bombings in order to achieve anything, and Russia has shown that they cannot.
I doubt that there was any strategic or tactical consideration involved. Someone at the top said "Do something" and this is what they cobbled together over the course of the last week or two.
Even if Ukraine has overclaimed the number of missiles and drones shot down, it was still a solid intercept rate. Even if zeo's 50-60 confirmed hits was true, out of a strike package of about 200-250, this is not particularly impressive. It is to be expected that the air defense will be overwhelmed in places. This has been true in the past and it's true for both sides, regardless of how well the air defense works overall.
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Canada11369 Posts
On August 27 2024 03:51 sertas wrote:
zeo was wrong about 65 "confirmed" hits, the stats are:
1/3 Kinzhal Kh-47M2 aeroballistic missiles
1/6 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
1/1 Kh-22 cruise missile
99/115 Kh-101/Kalibr/Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
99/109 Shahed drones“
This was a big attack, good shoot downs by ukraine imo, just bad at dealing with the ballistic missiles, maybe they got overwhelmed by the amount of stuff at the same time. Russia will need to wait until the end of the year to do another attack of this size.
Hm. Maybe it's like those Palestinian rocket attacks in the last few years. Iron Dome gets good enough that firing by ones or twos is not so effective. So instead you stockpile and then overload the system all at once.
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Reportedly one of the drones exploded on the territory of Poland. Investigation is underway.
On August 27 2024 08:44 Falling wrote:Show nested quote +On August 27 2024 03:51 sertas wrote:
zeo was wrong about 65 "confirmed" hits, the stats are:
1/3 Kinzhal Kh-47M2 aeroballistic missiles
1/6 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
1/1 Kh-22 cruise missile
99/115 Kh-101/Kalibr/Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
99/109 Shahed drones“
This was a big attack, good shoot downs by ukraine imo, just bad at dealing with the ballistic missiles, maybe they got overwhelmed by the amount of stuff at the same time. Russia will need to wait until the end of the year to do another attack of this size. Hm. Maybe it's like those Palestinian rocket attacks in the last few years. Iron Dome gets good enough that firing by ones or twos is not so effective. So instead you stockpile and then overload the system all at once.
It seems that their air defense did quite admirably. Iskander and Kinzhal are supersonic missiles which fly at mach 5-10 so they're very hard to intercept even if the system isn't overloaded. All of the slower moving projectiles got intercepted at pretty much 90% rate.
I wonder if Polish air defense also helped there. For sure we had some air force planes flying around at the time (not a usual thing here).
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On August 27 2024 08:54 Manit0u wrote:Reportedly one of the drones exploded on the territory of Poland. Investigation is underway. Show nested quote +On August 27 2024 08:44 Falling wrote:On August 27 2024 03:51 sertas wrote:
zeo was wrong about 65 "confirmed" hits, the stats are:
1/3 Kinzhal Kh-47M2 aeroballistic missiles
1/6 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
1/1 Kh-22 cruise missile
99/115 Kh-101/Kalibr/Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
99/109 Shahed drones“
This was a big attack, good shoot downs by ukraine imo, just bad at dealing with the ballistic missiles, maybe they got overwhelmed by the amount of stuff at the same time. Russia will need to wait until the end of the year to do another attack of this size. Hm. Maybe it's like those Palestinian rocket attacks in the last few years. Iron Dome gets good enough that firing by ones or twos is not so effective. So instead you stockpile and then overload the system all at once. It seems that their air defense did quite admirably. Iskander and Kinzhal are supersonic missiles which fly at mach 5-10 so they're very hard to intercept even if the system isn't overloaded. All of the slower moving projectiles got intercepted at pretty much 90% rate. I wonder if Polish air defense also helped there. For sure we had some air force planes flying around at the time (not a usual thing here).
Just dropping a note that by hitting Mach 5+ classifies them as hypersonic missiles, which makes them especially nasty if they aren't ballistic(I don't recall).
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Zurich15355 Posts
On August 27 2024 06:25 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On August 27 2024 03:51 sertas wrote:
zeo was wrong about 65 "confirmed" hits, the stats are:
1/3 Kinzhal Kh-47M2 aeroballistic missiles
1/6 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
1/1 Kh-22 cruise missile
99/115 Kh-101/Kalibr/Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
99/109 Shahed drones“
This was a big attack, good shoot downs by ukraine imo, just bad at dealing with the ballistic missiles, maybe they got overwhelmed by the amount of stuff at the same time. Russia will need to wait until the end of the year to do another attack of this size. For what is being reported as one of the biggest missile attacks since the start of the war its very possible the air defence got overwhelmed in places. Makes me wonder why Russia chose now to do this.
August 24 is Ukrainian independence day.
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Northern Ireland26012 Posts
On August 27 2024 12:45 Gahlo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 27 2024 08:54 Manit0u wrote:Reportedly one of the drones exploded on the territory of Poland. Investigation is underway. On August 27 2024 08:44 Falling wrote:On August 27 2024 03:51 sertas wrote:
zeo was wrong about 65 "confirmed" hits, the stats are:
1/3 Kinzhal Kh-47M2 aeroballistic missiles
1/6 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
1/1 Kh-22 cruise missile
99/115 Kh-101/Kalibr/Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
99/109 Shahed drones“
This was a big attack, good shoot downs by ukraine imo, just bad at dealing with the ballistic missiles, maybe they got overwhelmed by the amount of stuff at the same time. Russia will need to wait until the end of the year to do another attack of this size. Hm. Maybe it's like those Palestinian rocket attacks in the last few years. Iron Dome gets good enough that firing by ones or twos is not so effective. So instead you stockpile and then overload the system all at once. It seems that their air defense did quite admirably. Iskander and Kinzhal are supersonic missiles which fly at mach 5-10 so they're very hard to intercept even if the system isn't overloaded. All of the slower moving projectiles got intercepted at pretty much 90% rate. I wonder if Polish air defense also helped there. For sure we had some air force planes flying around at the time (not a usual thing here). Just dropping a note that by hitting Mach 5+ classifies them as hypersonic missiles, which makes them especially nasty if they aren't ballistic(I don't recall).
It boggles my mind that such weapons are even interceptable at all.
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On August 26 2024 21:09 zeo wrote:
... banned the largest political parties in the country, persecuted large swaths of people opposed to them and banned all media that didnt comply...
"But it's fine when Putin does it!"
Shouldn't you have been in Paris winning medals for mental gymnastics?
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On August 27 2024 16:38 MJG wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2024 21:09 zeo wrote:
... banned the largest political parties in the country, persecuted large swaths of people opposed to them and banned all media that didnt comply... "But it's fine when Putin does it!" Shouldn't you have been in Paris winning medals for mental gymnastics?
Come on, banning and killing opponents are two different things. Putin doesn't ban anyone. They just fail with their paperwork and die from natural death, they are even witnessed by fsb agents.
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Northern Ireland26012 Posts
On August 27 2024 17:09 0x64 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 27 2024 16:38 MJG wrote:On August 26 2024 21:09 zeo wrote:
... banned the largest political parties in the country, persecuted large swaths of people opposed to them and banned all media that didnt comply... "But it's fine when Putin does it!" Shouldn't you have been in Paris winning medals for mental gymnastics? Come on, banning and killing opponents are two different things. Putin doesn't ban anyone. They just fail with their paperwork and die from natural death, they are even witnessed by fsb agents.
Maybe if the opposition weren’t so uncoordinated that they frequently fall out of windows they might get rid of this Putin fellow!
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Finland943 Posts
Reuters is reporting that officials in Belgorod say they've pushed back a Ukrainian attack. Some 500 Ukrainian fighters attacked two border checkpoints according to another source. Doesn't sound like a concentrated attack force, more like probing, if the sources are correct.
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On August 27 2024 20:03 hexhaven wrote:Reuters is reporting that officials in Belgorod say they've pushed back a Ukrainian attack. Some 500 Ukrainian fighters attacked two border checkpoints according to another source. Doesn't sound like a concentrated attack force, more like probing, if the sources are correct.
That's a good old fashion Recon by force. Probing the enemy, seeing the response, and plan accordingly. And if you're really lucky, you get to do some damage, like the 300 initial attackers who broke into Kursk. But that is not the primary objective
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On August 27 2024 08:54 Manit0u wrote:Reportedly one of the drones exploded on the territory of Poland. Investigation is underway. Show nested quote +On August 27 2024 08:44 Falling wrote:On August 27 2024 03:51 sertas wrote:
zeo was wrong about 65 "confirmed" hits, the stats are:
1/3 Kinzhal Kh-47M2 aeroballistic missiles
1/6 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
1/1 Kh-22 cruise missile
99/115 Kh-101/Kalibr/Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
99/109 Shahed drones“
This was a big attack, good shoot downs by ukraine imo, just bad at dealing with the ballistic missiles, maybe they got overwhelmed by the amount of stuff at the same time. Russia will need to wait until the end of the year to do another attack of this size. Hm. Maybe it's like those Palestinian rocket attacks in the last few years. Iron Dome gets good enough that firing by ones or twos is not so effective. So instead you stockpile and then overload the system all at once. It seems that their air defense did quite admirably. Iskander and Kinzhal are supersonic missiles which fly at mach 5-10 so they're very hard to intercept even if the system isn't overloaded. All of the slower moving projectiles got intercepted at pretty much 90% rate. I wonder if Polish air defense also helped there. For sure we had some air force planes flying around at the time (not a usual thing here).
Our air-defence is not shooting at targets over Ukraine. And even not at targets that just staryed into our airspace.
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EPT
