Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 68

On March 26 2022 01:03 Silvanel wrote:
@FueledUpAndReadyToGo
Yes, but Europe has quite a lot of them. See this article: https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/liquefied-gas-does-lng-have-place-germanys-energy-future
Image from article:

Notice lack of major LNG installations in Germany. A true sign of how irresponsible was Shroders and Merkels energy policy.

On March 26 2022 01:45 PhoenixVoid wrote:
The BBC reports that "The chief of the Russian army says Russia will now focus its main war effort on the "complete liberation" of the eastern Ukrainian Donbas region." It also suggests a "possible downgrading of Russia's war aims" according to the Beeb. [Source]

Could be Russia looking for an offramp to victory by claiming they "denazified" the east as their real goal all along, or an admission that the "special military operation" is stalling out around Kyiv.

Russia's military is also reporting 1,351 deaths and 3,825 wounded. Seems very unlikely given independent analysis of armoured vehicle destruction and other estimates. [Source]

On March 26 2022 00:54 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Now there is talk of a Colonel being fragged by his own troops, in this case run over by a Tank. Deliberately.

On March 26 2022 04:06 JimmiC wrote:

At least Rowling is shooting him down instead of embracing him ala Tucker Carlson.

It is strange to me that some people are still unaware of who the "bad guys" are when it is so blatantly one sided.

The claims of Ukrainian counteroffensives in the area surrounding Kyiv began more than a week ago. Now we have our first objective observations confirming that, yes, the Ukrainian army is on the move. And the Russians near Ukraine’s capital city could be in big trouble.

For three weeks after widening its war on Ukraine starting on the night of Feb. 23, the Russian army steadily advanced the roughly 50 miles from the Belarusian border to the outskirts of Kyiv. A separate, southwestward thrust from Russia into northeastern Ukraine reached the city of Chernihiv, 80 miles north of Kyiv.

A Russian air assault on Hostomel airport near the capital, beginning the first day of the wider war and carried out by Mi-8 assault helicopters hauling hundreds of paratroopers, ended in disaster for the Russians.

But the main ground assault, led by the Russian 29th, 35th and 36th Combined Arms Armies west of Kyiv and the 2nd and 41st CAAs east of the capital, was more successful in the short term. The Russian surrounded and besieged Chernihiv while creating a very loose, incomplete cordon around Kyiv at a distance of a dozen or more miles.

That success was fleeting. The Kremlin had planned on a swift capture of Kyiv and the immediate collapse of the Ukrainian government, all within two or three days. When that didn’t happen, the flaws in the Russian army’s planning became apparent.

Units were poorly led, under-equipped and—most critically—inadequately sustained. The Russian army never had enough trucks for its logistical battalions to keep up with a fast-moving invasion force. That shortfall grew steadily worse as the war stretched into its second, third and fourth weeks—and Ukrainian drones and missileers began taking out trucks by the dozens.

The upshot is that Russia’s attempted encirclement of Kyiv stalled out as the Kremlin scrambled to reinforce shattered, starving battalions. "They're actually not trying to advance right now,” a senior U.S. defense official said of the Russians on Thursday. “They're taking more defensive positions."

While the Russians dug in, a general mobilization added tens of thousands of fresh troops to the Ukrainians’ ranks. Ukrainian battalions began rolling east from the relative safety of the country’s west. On or around March 19, these battalions made contact with the Russians west of Kyiv.

That’s when the momentum of the war may have begun changing. The first rumors that Ukrainian battalions had launched a counteroffensive west of Kyiv were impossible to distinguish from propaganda. On Thursday, however, we saw the first hard evidence of that operation, in the form of NASA’s fire-detecting satellites.

The Fire Information for Resource Management System, or FIRMS, satellites registered a very telling pattern of fires around Hostomel and Irpin, just west of Kyiv.

The blazes signaled intensive fighting along the roads threading through Hostomel and Irpin toward the capital. A similar pattern of fires was evident farther to the northwest, along the main supply routes connecting the Russian army to its railheads in Belarus.

The flames tell a story—of sustained clashes between reinforced Ukrainian battalions and idling, exhausted Russian battalions. The advantage appears to be with the Ukrainians, who on Wednesday claimed they had liberated Makariv, a town 30 miles west of Kyiv.

As the Ukrainians close in on the Russians from the west while maintaining a strong defensive line to the east, they’re creating a pocket, surrounding the very Russian vanguard that, just a couple weeks earlier, had threatened to surround Kyiv.

This pocket, reportedly containing around 10,000 Russian troops from the 35th and 36th CAAs, is extremely vulnerable. As the Russians run out of food and ammunition, they may begin surrendering en masse—or risk annihilation.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive isn’t limited to the region west of Kyiv. A separate effort on the other side of the city is under way, as well. On Tuesday, the Russians were just 12 or so miles from eastern Kyiv. Two days later, they’d retreated 20 miles farther to the east and north, according to the Pentagon.

Ukraine’s counteroffensive around Kyiv doesn’t immediately relieve pressure on the besieged cities of Chernihiv and Kharkiv in the east and Mariupol in the south. It doesn’t immediately help Ukrainian forces fighting to liberate the southern city of Kherson from Russian occupiers.

But that could change. If the Ukrainian army can close and eliminate the pocket of Russian troops west of Kyiv, commanders might be able to shift forces east and south in order to launch or bolster counteroffensives there.

More broadly, the Ukrainian operation around Kyiv underscores the conclusion many observers of the war reached after just two weeks. Russia is no longer winning. And it might actually be losing.

Russia says it will focus its invasion of Ukraine on "liberating" the east, signalling a possible shift in its strategy.

The defence ministry said that the initial aims of the war were complete, and that Russia had reduced the combat capacity of Ukraine.

Russia's invasion appeared aimed at swiftly capturing major cities and toppling the government.

But it has stalled in the face of fierce Ukrainian resistance.

"The main tasks of the first stage of the operation have been carried out," said Sergei Rudskoy, head of the General Staff's main operations administration.

"The combat capabilities of the Ukrainian armed forces have been substantially reduced, which allows us to concentrate our main efforts on achieving the main goal: the liberation of Donbas," he added, referring to an area in eastern Ukraine largely in the hands of Russian-backed separatists.

Russia's military has been bombarding and trying to encircle key Ukrainian cities such as the capital Kyiv, which Gen Rudskoy characterised as an attempt to tie down Ukraine's forces elsewhere in the country while Russia focuses on the east.

On March 26 2022 19:07 Belisarius wrote:
Of course it's a parallel universe. Russia's messaging doesn't have to bear any resemblance to the truth; it's solely for their mushroom farm. You seem more surprised at this than you should be.

Russia claiming that their objectives are completed is very encouraging news. It means they have all-but given up.

On March 26 2022 19:34 mahrgell wrote:


Honestly, I would not consider this good news. Because the most likely consequence will be that Russia will consolidate its gains in the south, finish Mariupol, dig in and defend their crimea land connection while mercilessly shelling Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernivh until the Ukrainians give in, because they can not really change the front lines anymore, while their civilians are suffering.

It was easier when Russia was spreading itself thin everywhere and trading a ton of men and material for weak temporary control of a few roads. But just taking and holding the south is very achievable for Russia. Now you run into a repeat of DNR/LNR, where there is simply not much the Ukrainian army can do to change the facts on the ground. Just with the additional permanent barrage on major Ukrainian cities.

The French have put their forces on alert and sent 3 nuclear subs to sea, supposedly in case Russia resorts to nukes they want to have their own in the striking distance of Moscow.

On March 26 2022 19:07 Belisarius wrote:
Of course it's a parallel universe. Russia's messaging doesn't have to bear any resemblance to the truth; it's solely for their mushroom farm. You seem more surprised at this than you should be.

Russia claiming that their objectives are completed is very encouraging news. It means they have all-but given up.