EPTAn update on the likely Ukrainian attack on NS1+2. This one specifically goes into the alleged connection of a Crimean woman to the shell company which rented the yacht Andromeda - revealing that the company is not in fact owned by her.
Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 596
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zatic
Zurich15366 Posts
An update on the likely Ukrainian attack on NS1+2. This one specifically goes into the alleged connection of a Crimean woman to the shell company which rented the yacht Andromeda - revealing that the company is not in fact owned by her. | ||
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Excludos
Norway8281 Posts
On September 27 2023 16:56 Liquid`Drone wrote: Yeah. The fact is that Ukraine is suffering more than Russia is, a natural consequence of the war happening on their soil. Vietnam was a disaster for the US - but worse for Vietnam. Soviet vs Afghanistan was a disaster for the Soviet Union - worse for Afghanistan. Etc. The best outcome is that Russia retreats quickly, not that the conflict turns into an economy-destroying quagmire that results in them withdrawing 6 years from now. We do not want Ukraine to turn into Afghanistan. As much as I also want Russia to withdraw immediately, mostly because of the ongoing cost of lives, there are numerous reasons why Ukraine is very different from both Afghanistan and Vietnam in terms of being able to rebuild after the war (provided Ukraine wins it). The biggest one being that Ukraine was already leaning towards the west before the invasion, and are going to be happy to work with them and their massive economic complex to rebuild the country. Ukraine itself also has enormous exports and pretty decent technological development to facilitate this. I'm not going to pretend to know what that country is going to look like after it's rebuilt, but it's incredibly unlikely to remain a third world in terms of prosperity for very long. Both Vietnam and Afghanistan stood on their own after the wars ended. The only countries who could potentially even want to help rebuild were chased out. And while Vietnam has managed to build itself up slowly over time, Afghanistan is unlikely to ever progress under the current extreme fanatical right-wing religious leadership and population | ||
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Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
On September 27 2023 07:51 Excludos wrote: Are these all voluntarily signing up? Or are they part of the mandatory draft that you now basically have to leave the country to avoid? If the reports are correct, then most or all of them are voluntary at the moment and they have been throughout most of 2023. The reason is pretty simple: Russia has a lot of working class men who can earn several times their salary on the frontline. Individuals who are either sufficiently patriotic, desperate, greedy or misinformed are fairly likely to take that offer. Some of them are unknowingly being sent straight to the frontline with little training just to fill small gaps in the defense line, but I can't say if that's very common. I think, since that reportedly happened to a few Ukrainians, why wouldn't it also happen to Russians? It's not like Russia is less corrupt or something. But due to the propaganda most volunteers think that things are stable and the odds of dying are slim to none. After they return home, their views have typically changed. That's why they immediately purchase the most expensive gear in case they get ordered back to the front. And thus their big salary instantly goes down the drain. It's a very sadistic cycle by the Kremlin leadership. | ||
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zeo
Serbia6344 Posts
On September 27 2023 17:24 hexhaven wrote: Not sure that Russia being unable to finish a week long anti-terrorist operation or a three day long special military operation paints the country in the best light. How is the two day counteroffencive going by the way? Hasnt been mentioned in this thread for quite some time, weird isnt it? | ||
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0x64
Finland4659 Posts
On September 27 2023 18:56 zeo wrote: How is the two day counteroffencive going by the way? Hasnt been mentioned in this thread for quite some time, weird isnt it? One meter at the time, but the direction is the right one. It's safer in Serbia than in the Russian defense line, that's for sure. | ||
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Excludos
Norway8281 Posts
On September 27 2023 18:56 zeo wrote: How is the two day counteroffencive going by the way? Hasnt been mentioned in this thread for quite some time, weird isnt it? Pretty sure at no point did Ukraine ever conceive that a counter offensive was going to take two days? If you're asking about the actual progress, there's been quite a lot happening. Honestly the speed of which they're pushing back Russia seems to increase with every passing day | ||
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Ardias
Russian Federation618 Posts
On September 27 2023 09:55 Mohdoo wrote: A fairly common perspective in the internet communities I encounter is: "Russia's air defense is struggling to keep up with very old western missiles. The Ukraine conflict shows Russia has failed to keep up over the last 20 years" Do we have some sort of way of knowing what kinda air defense Russia is using? Do we know its their latest and greatest? Are they just burning through their old stuff to free up storage space like the US is? I know there is tons of misinformation coming out of both sides of this war, but its not like there is no longer an objective reality. People seem to know every little detail about the technological advances of western stuff. What do we know about Russia? When I read about missiles hitting targets in Crimea, my ignorant assumption is that Russia is highly incentivized to defense Crimea, which must mean they use "good" defense systems there. Am I over estimating the importance of Crimea to Russia? Is it implied they can afford to take some losses to burn through old inventory? I wonder, which western missiles are considered "very old"? Storm Shadow/SCALP, GMLRS or incoming ATACMS/Taurus? All are the mainstay equipment of current Western armies. Recon and data transfer are also conducted through Western intelligence and communication network (satellite imagery, UAV patrols over Black Sea, Starlink comms etc.) Russian air defence is divided into Air Defence forces and anti-air units of the Ground Forces. Former mostly operate Pantsir systems as short range defence, and later versions of S-300 as well as S-400 as long range. The latter use Tunguska AA system for short range (though it seems that Pantsir is taking over here as well), Tor-M1/M2 as short-mid range, and Buk-M1/M2/M3 as mid-long range. There may be an odd OSA-AKM and Strela-10 here and there, but these missiles arent produced anymore AFAIK, so these have limited munitions. Percentage of newer systems is unknown, but all new missiles being produced seems to be for the newer systems. Also to the matter of successful strikes - it's not like Ukraine likes to publish instances when their attack failed (reversal is also true, but we are talking about Russian AA now), so you only see when their missiles worked, not when they didn't. Also the matter of air defence is quite complicated and achieving 100% kill ratio is basically impossible. Even Israel with their Iron Dome càn't do that, despite defending a very small territory (Israel is 3/4 size of Crimea alone) and generally being fired at with junk welded in nearest hangar. | ||
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sertas
Sweden890 Posts
On September 27 2023 18:56 zeo wrote: How is the two day counteroffencive going by the way? Hasnt been mentioned in this thread for quite some time, weird isnt it? It's going great thank you for asking, 2 more villages being cleared of russians, let's hope ukraine gets f16 before they win as i said so ukraine has more time to demilitarize russia | ||
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zeo
Serbia6344 Posts
On September 27 2023 20:57 sertas wrote: It's going great thank you for asking, 2 more villages being cleared of russians, let's hope ukraine gets f16 before they win as i said so ukraine has more time to demilitarize russia Damn thats crazy, didnt know that. What are the names of these villages? I just saw these tweets: 27 vechicles in one direction. Crazy, like they were being funneled in and picked off near Verbove on purpose. https://twitter.com/1_plus_1equals3/status/1706900312672354425?t=1fq2VuJt6Pr5mW8Un76Blg&s=19 24 counted here and geolocated in the Andreevka direction. These vids and pictures are just from the last day impossible to keep up. Which two villages? Any Russian armor collums destroyed? Post them here | ||
KwarK
United States44449 Posts
On September 27 2023 19:35 Ardias wrote: I wonder, which western missiles are considered "very old"? Storm Shadow/SCALP, GMLRS or incoming ATACMS/Taurus? All are the mainstay equipment of current Western armies. Recon and data transfer are also conducted through Western intelligence and communication network (satellite imagery, UAV patrols over Black Sea, Starlink comms etc.) Russian air defence is divided into Air Defence forces and anti-air units of the Ground Forces. Former mostly operate Pantsir systems as short range defence, and later versions of S-300 as well as S-400 as long range. The latter use Tunguska AA system for short range (though it seems that Pantsir is taking over here as well), Tor-M1/M2 as short-mid range, and Buk-M1/M2/M3 as mid-long range. There may be an odd OSA-AKM and Strela-10 here and there, but these missiles arent produced anymore AFAIK, so these have limited munitions. Percentage of newer systems is unknown, but all new missiles being produced seems to be for the newer systems. Also to the matter of successful strikes - it's not like Ukraine likes to publish instances when their attack failed (reversal is also true, but we are talking about Russian AA now), so you only see when their missiles worked, not when they didn't. Also the matter of air defence is quite complicated and achieving 100% kill ratio is basically impossible. Even Israel with their Iron Dome càn't do that, despite defending a very small territory (Israel is 3/4 size of Crimea alone) and generally being fired at with junk welded in nearest hangar. Storm Shadow was ordered in the 90s and delivered in the early 2000s. The production line has been discontinued. It’s like challenger in that regard, a museum piece, not a current weapon system. | ||
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Silvanel
Poland4769 Posts
On similiar note USS Blue Ridge was launched in 1969 and is still in active service. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Blue_Ridge_(LCC-19) Date of production isn't telling the whole story. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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sertas
Sweden890 Posts
On September 27 2023 21:46 zeo wrote: Damn thats crazy, didnt know that. What are the names of these villages? I just saw these tweets: https://twitter.com/Ghost132607472/status/1706662752088187381 27 vechicles in one direction. Crazy, like they were being funneled in and picked off near Verbove on purpose. https://twitter.com/1_plus_1equals3/status/1706900312672354425?t=1fq2VuJt6Pr5mW8Un76Blg&s=19 24 counted here and geolocated in the Andreevka direction. These vids and pictures are just from the last day impossible to keep up. Which two villages? Any Russian armor collums destroyed? Post them here Yeah and russia is losing way more. Verbove and that other town with weird name will be in ukranian hands in a few weeks is my guess, you want to bet against? | ||
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0x64
Finland4659 Posts
On September 27 2023 21:46 zeo wrote: Damn thats crazy, didnt know that. What are the names of these villages? I just saw these tweets: https://twitter.com/Ghost132607472/status/1706662752088187381 27 vechicles in one direction. Crazy, like they were being funneled in and picked off near Verbove on purpose. https://twitter.com/1_plus_1equals3/status/1706900312672354425?t=1fq2VuJt6Pr5mW8Un76Blg&s=19 24 counted here and geolocated in the Andreevka direction. These vids and pictures are just from the last day impossible to keep up. Which two villages? Any Russian armor collums destroyed? Post them here Twitter is a horrible source, almost as bad as telegram. | ||
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sertas
Sweden890 Posts
On September 27 2023 22:52 0x64 wrote: Twitter is a horrible source, almost as bad as telegram. Obviously hard to tell with any russian source if they're reusing old footage or posting their own losses as ukrainan losses, but if you give the benefit that it's true its kinda funny, ukraine destroyed like 20 command posts this week in big booms for evreone to see and then you see 1 ukrainian command post get blown up and its somehow news? Ukraine destroys 20+ ifv many days and it's not even mentioned, it's just a normal day | ||
hexhaven
Finland966 Posts
On September 27 2023 18:56 zeo wrote: How is the two day counteroffencive going by the way? Hasnt been mentioned in this thread for quite some time, weird isnt it? The counteroffensive has been talked about pretty much every few pages since early summer, including by you on this very page. | ||
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ZeroByte13
801 Posts
I.e. are heavy rain expected that can make it's harder to move, or maybe the opposite... I'm not an expert in this. | ||
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KwarK
United States44449 Posts
On September 27 2023 22:06 Silvanel wrote: SS entered service in 2002 and were not decomissioned yet, it is not museum piece it is still in active service. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Shadow On similiar note USS Blue Ridge was launched in 1969 and is still in active service. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Blue_Ridge_(LCC-19) Date of production isn't telling the whole story. You can’t buy new ones, they’re not in active production. By museum piece I don’t mean useless or inactive, I mean that it’s a relic of the last generation, left over, inherited. If Britain were to enter a serious peer war today we would spend our inheritance of storm shadows but it’s not what we would rearm ourselves with. It’s not what we would manufacture to fight a current war against, for example, Germany with. It’s like the Russian T-80s. They have them, the cannon still works, you’re no less dead for being shot with a round launched from a T-80. But nobody in Russia is building new production lines for new T-80s. You only have a few years after something goes out of production to restart before restarting is materially no cheaper than making a new line from scratch. Skilled workers move away. The floppy discs get lost. People retire or die. The industrial infrastructure decays. | ||
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KwarK
United States44449 Posts
On September 27 2023 23:32 ZeroByte13 wrote: Does anyone know weather forecasts for October/November and what they might mean in terms of offensive (or any, really) potential for both sides? I.e. are heavy rain expected that can make it's harder to move, or maybe the opposite... I'm not an expert in this. I’m told the climate in northern and southern Ukraine is quite different so there’s probably no single answer. My uneducated speculation is that the limitations weather might place on maneuver warfare are unlikely to be as relevant in this conflict because maneuver warfare isn’t happening. Low intensity distributed infantry, drone, and artillery duels don’t much care about mud. | ||
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StasisField
United States1086 Posts
On September 27 2023 23:32 ZeroByte13 wrote: Does anyone know weather forecasts for October/November and what they might mean in terms of offensive (or any, really) potential for both sides? I.e. are heavy rain expected that can make it's harder to move, or maybe the opposite... I'm not an expert in this. From what I have read rain is expected in the next couple of weeks and it will probably slow down the counteroffensive | ||
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