Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 597

On September 28 2023 00:19 KwarK wrote:

You can’t buy new ones, they’re not in active production. By museum piece I don’t mean useless or inactive, I mean that it’s a relic of the last generation, left over, inherited.

If Britain were to enter a serious peer war today we would spend our inheritance of storm shadows but it’s not what we would rearm ourselves with. It’s not what we would manufacture to fight a current war against, for example, Germany with.

It’s like the Russian T-80s. They have them, the cannon still works, you’re no less dead for being shot with a round launched from a T-80. But nobody in Russia is building new production lines for new T-80s.

You only have a few years after something goes out of production to restart before restarting is materially no cheaper than making a new line from scratch. Skilled workers move away. The floppy discs get lost. People retire or die. The industrial infrastructure decays.

On September 27 2023 22:32 sertas wrote:


Yeah and russia is losing way more. Verbove and that other town with weird name will be in ukranian hands in a few weeks is my guess, you want to bet against?

On September 27 2023 23:04 sertas wrote:
Obviously hard to tell with any russian source if they're reusing old footage or posting their own losses as ukrainan losses, but if you give the benefit that it's true its kinda funny, ukraine destroyed like 20 command posts this week in big booms for evreone to see and then you see 1 ukrainian command post get blown up and its somehow news?

Ukraine destroys 20+ ifv many days and it's not even mentioned, it's just a normal day

On September 27 2023 22:52 0x64 wrote:


Twitter is a horrible source, almost as bad as telegram.

On September 28 2023 02:27 zeo wrote:
Your evidence for Russia losing way more in this case is 'dude trust me'

On September 28 2023 02:27 zeo wrote:

Your evidence for Russia losing way more in this case is 'dude trust me'. In reality Kiev is taking extreme casualties for gains measured in meters, 'megavillages' with one dirt road and 5 houses without plumbing. Tens of thousands of casualties on the UKR government side with Russians being able to sit back and funnel the human waves into killzones as we can all see buy the massive amounts of footage combing in.

The Russians took these kinds of machine and manpower losses during the first months while they were hard pushing. Thats the kind of reality of modern warfare between peer armies. Even if the attackers completely exhausts all of their attacking potential with this offensive they can sit back and I doubt the Russians can push back into them without taking a lot of losses. Maybe take back the few km captured by the Ukrainians in the last 100+days but more than that is going to be a slog


Most of these things only happen on Twitter in walls of text with no evidence to back up the claims


Drone video footage is evidence though. Geolocation is evidence. Texts claiming something happened is not though.;

Again, do not take anyones word for it. Why should you. Just read the subtext of what is being posted here:

- The offensive is going great! Trust me guys! What do you mean it hasn't moved anywhere in a month after non-stop attacks? Its going great! Well... no, I don't have any evidence but its going faster than expected, in three more weeks we will capture that outhouse 500m away from the lines today! I don't care if it costs 10.000 lives its the outhouse of freedom and those 10k are actually Russians lol, who cares? Those mobilizations are not real, the piles of bodies and tanks are not real lol

- Did you see the 50 articles about the hundreds of command centers, tanks and planes destroyed and one million dead generals? What do you mean if 10% of that was real we would be at Moscow by now? We will take that outhouse 500 meters away in a month or so, just 100 more command centers to go lol

It must be getting exhausting doing these mental gymnastics day in and day out but its easier if done in groups.

On September 28 2023 02:47 Magic Powers wrote:
For the last few weeks I've not seen many people here claim that Ukraine is celebrating victory after victory. Would be somewhat outrageous to do so because there aren't too many obvious signs of that.

From my observation the Ukrainian advances have all but halted. Reports have been coming in that progress is usually being negated quite swiftly.

That doesn't mean the offensive is over. Russia is losing a lot, but these numbers are boring to people watching from the sidelines. Adding +100 on top of 10000 doesn't seem like much to people who aren't looking at the bigger picture. It's more interesting and more visually obvious when large regions are swiftly being captured.

On September 28 2023 04:10 KwarK wrote:

There is relentless forward movement by Ukraine. We can even see it here with zeo’s steady goalposts going from “Ukraine can’t even take X” to “Ukraine has lost a million men in futile attacks over X” to “Russia still materially controls X” and then finally “where is X? Never heard of it”.

The line is being pushed back.

On September 28 2023 01:17 Ardias wrote:

You don't say:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/09/24/the-russians-are-making-their-first-new-tank-turbines-in-30-years-likely-signaling-a-very-long-war/?sh=54838e1650c7
"Alexander Potapov, CEO of Uralvagonzavod, announced his firm would resume producing 46-ton, three-person T-80s “from scratch.”

Also what about SS not being in active production?
https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2023/05/10/britain-requests-deadly-cruise-missiles-for-ukraine/
"He added that MBDA, an Anglo-French company, would have to step up production of the missile at its factories because it was unlikely the British military would donate Storm Shadow from its own war stocks and that was why it issued the tender."
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/98344
SS produced in May 2022.

On September 28 2023 04:10 KwarK wrote:

There is relentless forward movement by Ukraine. We can even see it here with zeo’s steady goalposts going from “Ukraine can’t even take X” to “Ukraine has lost a million men in futile attacks over X” to “Russia still materially controls X” and then finally “where is X? Never heard of it”.

The line is being pushed back.

On September 28 2023 02:51 Excludos wrote:


This is you for literally anything. You constantly tell us how much we're being brainwashed by propaganda, ignore any third party sources, and then take all Russian claims at their face value. Then, just as a beautiful cherry on top, you have the balls to claim someone else is doing mental gymnastics.

On September 28 2023 04:17 sertas wrote:


And if ukraine would lose a million men it would be easily worth it if it fucks over russia. (They won't lose a million men, they will if they have too but they're not even close, they lost maybe 70k and russia 130k)

On September 28 2023 04:29 zeo wrote:

Every few weeks I come in here and in that time the 'relentless forward movement by the all conquering NATO equipped army' in that time is a distance that I can walk at a leisurely pace in 15-20min at the cost of thousands of casualties and staggering amounts of equipment contained to tiny area of fields with scattered houses here and there.

On September 28 2023 04:29 zeo wrote:

Every few weeks I come in here and in that time the 'relentless forward movement by the all conquering NATO equipped army' in that time is a distance that I can walk at a leisurely pace in 15-20min at the cost of thousands of casualties and staggering amounts of equipment contained to tiny area of fields with scattered houses here and there.


Nope, I have to have actual evidence for my claims because it gets gone through with a fine toothpick comb by a lot of people. While here we have a daily flood of shitpost sources that prove Brandolini's law right. Even if there was enough manpower to just call out every piece of propaganda the answers would still be the same and the same lies will be posted over and over.


To the last Ukrainian indeed. Yikes

On September 28 2023 04:35 Magic Powers wrote:


I hate to disagree, but in recent days and even weeks there hasn't been meaningful territorial progress for Ukraine. The pace has been reduced so much that it's hardly recognizable on a map anymore. The pace is no longer creeping, currently it's non-existent.

That's not to say that Russia isn't losing a lot - they're still very significantly outperforming Ukraine in that aspect, losing troops and hardware in very significant quantities, while Ukraine only really matches them in drone losses (for obvious reasons).

I don't think Ukraine's strategy is ideal. The reports of them getting pushed back every time they advance are disappointing. It indicates that there's something seriously wrong with the command. It makes little sense to clear an area over and over, only to hand it back to the enemy every time. An outpost has to be established that can be used to continue pushing further and create more threats in various directions. That's what the US has been proposing and Zelensky has been rejecting it.

On September 28 2023 05:19 Magic Powers wrote:


I understand that progress is progress, but meaningful progress is different. Currently Ukraine isn't making territorial progress, and the last few weeks have generally been extremely slow. At this rate the war would last for a century, and I'm not exaggerating.
We have to look at other indicators for success if we want to argue that Ukraine is still making progress. Territorial gains don't cut it. We can compare casualties and things like that, but otherwise we only have speculation.

I'm not impressed by Kyiv's approach. The loss of life will be staggering if this continues. I think they should listen more to the US and take a much more aggressive approach somewhere in Zaporizhzhia, as that would minimize casualties on both sides and it'd more likely promise to end the war in a reasonable timeframe.

On September 28 2023 05:48 Magic Powers wrote:


Russia is hardly losing aircraft or tanks anymore because they're hardly using them. They don't need them in this defensive stance, as they'd get destroyed in much larger quantities if they used them at leisure. What this shows to me is that Russian troops are too comfortable. They're not forced to turn up the heat to hold off Ukrainian assaults, they can just recapture lost ground with artillery fire over and over again. That's extremely lazy, and it's been working well enough. Emphasis on "well enough", because this is Putin's war, not Russia's. He doesn't care about any of this per se, he only cares about his seat in power, and thus indirectly he cares about the outcome of the war. His ideal scenario is a forever war, and that's exactly what he's currently getting.

You can't argue with the numbers, Ukrainian advance has slowed down over time and it keeps slowing down, and right now as we speak it's even stopped completely. The numbers clearly show that this war will continue forever if there's not a huge change in the strategy at some point. That would ruin not only Russia, but also Ukraine. Because it's not just about persevering, it's about life and it's about living.

I'm never going to side with zeo morally speaking, but I'm starting to understand where his argument is coming from. Objectively speaking he has a point. Ukraine is not winning this war right now with the current methods.