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On June 25 2023 02:47 Lmui wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2023 02:20 Vindicare605 wrote:On June 25 2023 02:04 Lmui wrote:
From what I've read, granted it's emerging news, there's two groups of Wagner.
One group seized Rostov and the supply depots there, the other is the group marching on Moscow from Voronezh
"Marching" being the non-literal term for what they're doing.
I don't think there's enough anti-tank weapons to stop a BMP near Moscow. Armoured vehicles are basically immune to most small arms fire, and you have Wagner vs the children of elites who are assigned to Moscow to be safe from the war while still "contributing" to the military.
The other thing that's interesting is what it'll do for supply lines in Ukraine. I don't expect the front to collacollapse immediately, but it appears that Rostov was one of the main supply areas, with a lot of fuel etc that is now in the hands of Wagner.
May we live in interesting times. You're missing a key factor here. Wagner doesn't have any air power. ANY air power at all. That's all Russian Military. And the Russians haven't been using most of their air power in Ukraine because they can't fly missions safely due to how much air defense the Ukrainians have. They have plenty of air power sitting at bases in Russia waiting for orders to fly. There's mixed reports from twitter about Wagner already shooting down helicopters and more airstrikes on the convoy (it's hard to tell what kind of strikes these are or where they happened) but a single convoy on a highway that has no air cover would make a very easy target for Helicopter and Jet strikes. If Wagner can actually GET to Moscow I think things will get very crazy, but from how this is stacked up on paper, I don't think they have a chance of actually making it all the way to Moscow unless something else happens like Russian Airforce units defect or something. Does Moscow have enough air power to actually stop the convoy in any meaningful capacity? They can't just bomb/level their own cities, Putin presumably would want to avoid that at almost all costs. While Wagner is traveling on the highway it could work, but once they reach the suburbs of Moscow, it's a no-go
That's why I said IF they can make it Moscow things can get really interesting, but it's a 10 hour drive from Rostov-On don to Moscow and The RM has been setting up roadblocks to slow down the Convoy. It's a long drive with plenty of space to attack the convoy on the road.
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On June 25 2023 02:56 TheCheapSkate wrote:
Nah it's not fake, the situation has deescalated. Looks like the west has been fooled again
And what has the west been fooled into? Afaik no one in the west has done anything except say "Yeah, nice, lets watch what happens"
What is the big win from this supposed deception here?
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On June 25 2023 02:57 [Phantom] wrote:
Guys don’t ingnore me just because you want this coup to be true. It would be a suicide mission with zero chance of success. Even if he gets Moscow miracously there is still the rest of Russia. Hitler got Moscow.
This is not a coup attempt you’re being played
So Russia wants to fake out the world that not only did they lose two regions, several aircraft, and nearly Moscow in less than 24hrs to a PMC. Only for them to be rescued by diplomacy via a puppet state?
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United States44450 Posts
On June 25 2023 02:57 [Phantom] wrote:
Guys don’t ingnore me just because you want this coup to be true. It would be a suicide mission with zero chance of success. Even if he gets Moscow miracously there is still the rest of Russia. Hitler got Moscow.
This is not a coup attempt you’re being played
Hitler didn’t get Moscow and Putin called it a mutiny on live tv.
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Doesn't make sense to do this to fool people, what the fuck does that gain? West hasn't taken any action, Ukraine is just observing. All its done is to make Putin looks absolutely weak, Lukashenko relevant even though he isn't and Prigozhin an idiot.
Got to be a fake or a deception right? Why would you blow up oil refineries, helicopters etc. for this?
That or Prigozhin is the most stupid guy in the world (while also being someone who was smart enough to set all this up) and thinks he can just turn around without losing his head.
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On June 25 2023 02:57 [Phantom] wrote:
Guys don’t ingnore me just because you want this coup to be true. It would be a suicide mission with zero chance of success. Even if he gets Moscow miracously there is still the rest of Russia. Hitler got Moscow.
This is not a coup attempt you’re being played
No he didnt
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Yeah it's over, Prig blinked first. He wasn't willing to start blasting on Russians and not enough of the army joined him.
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On June 25 2023 02:23 [Phantom] wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2023 01:47 Falling wrote:
@Phantom
You keep saying it's suspicious that Wagner is travelling so fast (bullet trains and the like). What exactly are you suspicious of? Do you have an alternative theory in mind? What I think it’s just that there is a lot of miss information on where the troops are and what are their motives. This being a coup doesn’t make any sense. And people are letting their excitement of Russia possibly losing cloud their judgment. I just read a Reddit comment that’s sums it up nicely Show nested quote + People thinking that Moscow will fall to Wagner are wayyyyy too optimistic.
Even if Wagner was reinforced by some defectors from the Russian army (Let's say they, super optimistically, grew their forces to 70 000), Moscow remains a huge city of 12 millions.
Let's not forget that even with a complete assault from multiple sides, Russia wasn't even close to conquering Kyiv, which 'only' houses a bit under 3 millions inhabitants.
However, it'll still depend on the fervor of Putin's loyalists. If they back him 100%, there is 0 chance for Wagner to even come close to inflicting real damage to the capital.
I said a couple of post ago that this doesn’t make sense as a coup but maybe as a way to get more control of the military and not only of his mercenary group. Or maybe something else but a coup makes no sense. Like another poster just said they don’t even have any air support. And NATO sure as hell won’t be supplying them with anti air weapons like they’ve done with ukraine
This is different.
In Kiev they were actual invaders, here they are not.
If I am not mistaken before getting to Moscow Prigozhin will spread the news about "liberating people", or whatever and asking citizens to stay homes to avoid danger.
Then he will try to take over institutions.
Putin right now is basicaly hoping for some delays so he can mobilize anough force to defend Moscow, he cant afford to loose there so he must have enough power to win. If he wont have enough he will retreat them.
Whoever gets control over Moscow will have massive advantage, because to take it back you will need military and actual fights and then some civilians will die and some buildings will get destroyed and whoever attacks there will be "The Evil One".
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On June 25 2023 03:03 Dan HH wrote:
Yeah it's over, Prig blinked first. He wasn't willing to start blasting on Russians and not enough of the army joined him.
So him and his army are dead now ? U dont comeback from a move like this lol. What was this situation all about honestly.
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On June 25 2023 03:00 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2023 02:57 [Phantom] wrote:
Guys don’t ingnore me just because you want this coup to be true. It would be a suicide mission with zero chance of success. Even if he gets Moscow miracously there is still the rest of Russia. Hitler got Moscow.
This is not a coup attempt you’re being played So Russia wants to fake out the world that not only did they lose two regions, several aircraft, and nearly Moscow in less than 24hrs to a PMC. Only for them to be rescued by diplomacy via a puppet state?
I don't think that "losing 2 regions and nearly moscow" is an accurate representation of having some armed guys show up in 2 cities and being hundreds of kilometres away from moscow. That is about as far from reality as saying nothing at all happened imo.
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United States44450 Posts
On June 25 2023 03:06 Artesimo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2023 03:00 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:On June 25 2023 02:57 [Phantom] wrote:
Guys don’t ingnore me just because you want this coup to be true. It would be a suicide mission with zero chance of success. Even if he gets Moscow miracously there is still the rest of Russia. Hitler got Moscow.
This is not a coup attempt you’re being played So Russia wants to fake out the world that not only did they lose two regions, several aircraft, and nearly Moscow in less than 24hrs to a PMC. Only for them to be rescued by diplomacy via a puppet state? I don't think that "losing 2 regions and nearly moscow" is an accurate representation of having some armed guys show up in 2 cities and being hundreds of kilometres away from moscow. That is about as far from reality as saying nothing at all happened imo.
Hundreds of kilometers is a long way if it’s filled with armed trenches and a very short way if it’s a clear road and you’re in vehicles. This was the latter, this was an existential threat to the Putin regime.
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On June 25 2023 03:06 [sc1f]eonzerg wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2023 03:03 Dan HH wrote:
Yeah it's over, Prig blinked first. He wasn't willing to start blasting on Russians and not enough of the army joined him. So him and his army are dead now ? U dont comeback from a move like this lol. What was this situation all about honestly.
Is this "being over" really confirmed yet?
And if yes, i guess it is another example of Russia being really weird and hard to understand because nothing makes any sense.
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Well, I don't understand how anyone can claim this is some 5d chess by Russia. The West and Ukraine didn't lose anything by this. They just stood by and watched, while Russia got thrown into chaos by Russians...
And I am not sold out on the premise that this already over...yet.
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I seriously don't know how Putin will just leave them be, after declaring them traitors. Even if its some kind of diversion, other than confusing their own population, there was zero effect. Well, some TV channels got their best ratings in years... That's something I guess.
On June 25 2023 02:57 [Phantom] wrote:
Guys don’t ingnore me just because you want this coup to be true. It would be a suicide mission with zero chance of success. Even if he gets Moscow miracously there is still the rest of Russia. Hitler got Moscow.
This is not a coup attempt you’re being played
Nope, he famously didn't and some scholars are pointing at this failure as the start of the end for the Third Reich... But oh well.
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On June 25 2023 02:57 [Phantom] wrote:
Guys don’t ingnore me just because you want this coup to be true. It would be a suicide mission with zero chance of success. Even if he gets Moscow miracously there is still the rest of Russia. Hitler got Moscow.
This is not a coup attempt you’re being played
Hitler literally threw his entire army on the idea of getting Moscow because he knew it would be the ticket to rest of Russia.
The reason he failed is because he never got there.
I'm also unsure how we're "being played". What did the west lose with the entirety of Russian leadership panicking for a day? Russia didn't gain anything from this. Nothing of value was won. They didn't "play" anyone
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Prigozhin can't be so naive as to buy into safety guarantees in exchange for standing down. My guess is he falls out of a window within the next week.
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On June 25 2023 03:09 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2023 03:06 Artesimo wrote:On June 25 2023 03:00 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:On June 25 2023 02:57 [Phantom] wrote:
Guys don’t ingnore me just because you want this coup to be true. It would be a suicide mission with zero chance of success. Even if he gets Moscow miracously there is still the rest of Russia. Hitler got Moscow.
This is not a coup attempt you’re being played So Russia wants to fake out the world that not only did they lose two regions, several aircraft, and nearly Moscow in less than 24hrs to a PMC. Only for them to be rescued by diplomacy via a puppet state? I don't think that "losing 2 regions and nearly moscow" is an accurate representation of having some armed guys show up in 2 cities and being hundreds of kilometres away from moscow. That is about as far from reality as saying nothing at all happened imo. Hundreds of kilometers is a long way if it’s filled with armed trenches and a very short way if it’s a clear road and you’re in vehicles. This was the latter, this was an existential threat to the Putin regime.
That is not what I contested, I contested the notion that being a couple hundred kilometres away translates to "almost losing moscow". That is sensationalism or hysteria at best.
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On June 25 2023 03:13 Artesimo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2023 03:09 KwarK wrote:On June 25 2023 03:06 Artesimo wrote:On June 25 2023 03:00 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:On June 25 2023 02:57 [Phantom] wrote:
Guys don’t ingnore me just because you want this coup to be true. It would be a suicide mission with zero chance of success. Even if he gets Moscow miracously there is still the rest of Russia. Hitler got Moscow.
This is not a coup attempt you’re being played So Russia wants to fake out the world that not only did they lose two regions, several aircraft, and nearly Moscow in less than 24hrs to a PMC. Only for them to be rescued by diplomacy via a puppet state? I don't think that "losing 2 regions and nearly moscow" is an accurate representation of having some armed guys show up in 2 cities and being hundreds of kilometres away from moscow. That is about as far from reality as saying nothing at all happened imo. Hundreds of kilometers is a long way if it’s filled with armed trenches and a very short way if it’s a clear road and you’re in vehicles. This was the latter, this was an existential threat to the Putin regime. That is not what I contested, I contested the notion that being a couple hundred kilometres away translates to "almost losing moscow". That is sensationalism or hysteria at best. If there is no one willing to stand and defend a city is lost the moment enemy troops enter it...
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The only deal I could imagine Prigozhin accept now is a guarantee of safe flight to some neutral country. He should be done in Russia.
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Mexico2170 Posts
Sorry, Napoleon took moscow not hitler, sorry about that.
But yeah, again, with this thing starting and ending with basically no resistance whatsoever (1 reported small engagement or two), doesn't make sense. No big attack from wagner group, and no big defense agaisnt them, and it's over?
I'm not necessarily saying this was made necessarily to affect ukraine/the west, but maybe it was just a powerplay so wegner would get more control of the military, with him hoping he could lead the whole war/russian army, or maybe he was deceived by putin into openly revolting so he could take care of him and make him lose the power he had gathered. Now he has a perfect excuse to remove him at it would be understandable.
Those make way more sense than trying a coup that was doomed to fail. Even if he got into moscow he would have been killed and wouldn't have taken control of the country.
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EPT
