EPTRusso-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 475
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Broetchenholer
Germany1961 Posts
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xM(Z
Romania5299 Posts
Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has called on Belarusians to not let an opportunity to save Belarus go to waste. The Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment, a group of Belarusian opposition volunteers defending Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion, has said the military and civilians in Belarus should "wait for a signal". belarusian opposition trying to speculate and use russian civil war for their benefit, maybe ...... Quote from Tsikhanouskaya: "Putin might try to drag the Belarusian military into his own internal conflict, and make us part of this conflict. I want to call on Belarusian diplomats, the military, and law enforcement agencies to remember that we have our own national interests. Putin and Prigozhin are no friends to Belarus. You do not have to choose their side. The people of Belarus have to defend their own country. ... Quote from the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment: "The right conditions for overthrowing the dictatorship are approaching. This is the beginning of the end of the great tyranny. I am appealing to everyone in the Belarusian military: do not take part in Russia’s internal conflict; their civil war is not our business. Time is nigh for Belarusians to make a choice: to comply with criminal orders or to remain faithful to Belarusian people. also, there were 5 huge military russian (transport)planes land in Belarus few hours ago according to ukrainian news; maybe someone wanted them to come back to Russia full of belarusian troops ... Lukashenko flew to Turkey as well as most Moscow elites/oligarchs. | ||
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Vindicare605
United States16121 Posts
It's not hard to believe that this happened if you've been following what's been going on with Wagner, Pirghozin/Shoigu and Bakhmut but to see it actually play out like this? | ||
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Dan HH
Romania9204 Posts
On June 25 2023 01:32 [Phantom] wrote: I think maybe when they get to Moscu they will just meet with Putin, arrange a deal and better conditions, give more power to them like making him the head of all Russian forces, and then go back to fight in Ukraine. And then Putin will try to backstab him. It just doesn't make any sense. There are reports that they are less than 400km from moscu now. It seems the whole army took a bullet train or something. And no one is doing anything? Imagine if this happened in the USA, in border Mexico in San diegoand they were moving towards north. They wouldn't get to even los angeles even if 90% of the US army was overseas. Of course we can't imagine this happening in the US, Russia is weird as hell. There was some guy on a bike with a food delivery service bag on his back going around a tank looking bored as fuck. I can't imagine any population being this apathetic and depoliticized to something like this happening in their country. Even in North Korea there's probably underground groups just waiting for a crack in the armor of the authorities to do something, we'd probably see clashes between rebel civilians and loyalists. Here there's not a peep, everyone just waiting to for the result of the dice to see what fate their country has. | ||
Falling
Canada11506 Posts
You keep saying it's suspicious that Wagner is travelling so fast (bullet trains and the like). What exactly are you suspicious of? Do you have an alternative theory in mind? | ||
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KwarK
United States43964 Posts
On June 25 2023 01:42 xM(Z wrote: belarusian opposition trying to speculate and use russian civil war for their benefit, maybe ... also, there were 5 huge military russian (transport)planes land in Belarus few hours ago according to ukrainian news; maybe someone wanted them to come back to Russia full of belarusian troops ... Lukashenko flew to Turkey as well as most Moscow elites/oligarchs. This is the only window there will ever be. Every possible victor in Russia believes in the Russian Empire and Belorussia as an inseparable part of it. It can only be separated by preparing to defend itself from an armed invasion the way Ukraine has and it can only do that if it creates a window in which Russian army control lapses. | ||
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Neneu
Norway492 Posts
On June 25 2023 01:41 Broetchenholer wrote: This is gonna be kinda frightening, but i think in the end, there is no way for Prigozhin to actually win. For Ukraine, best case scenario would be if he keeps the logistics centers behind the front and fights against the army there, but why would he do that. He will maybe get to Moscow and "take" it, but this will not do him any good either. In the end to beat Putin, he would have to control much more then 2 cities and the country is just too big to hold for 25k people. The only way he wins is if he can convince more then half of the apparatus to join him, but i don't see it happening. He will probably look tough for a while, we will keep seeing pictures of Wagner soldiers in front of "strategic" buildings and then, suddenly he will be dead and people will talk about amnesties. I would be very careful about underestimating a mercenary army consisting of battle-hardened and highly professional soldiers, whose leadership have orchestrated and performed several successful military coups in Africa over the last decade. This time they are even on home turf, with considerable support from civilians and low ranking soldiers. | ||
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xM(Z
Romania5299 Posts
MOSCOW SEIZING WAGNER CASH, PRIGOZHIN SAYS if true, it might've been the cherry on top of the shitcake Prigozhin has been getting from the russians lately.In another voice message released over Telegram, Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed Russian security services have confiscated stacks of banknotes after raiding the mercenary group’s office in St. Petersburg. Local media reported earlier that up to 4 billion rubles — equivalent to more than €43 million — was found packed into cardboard boxes when the FSB security service raided Wagner’s headquarters Saturday. “Cash was indeed found,” Prigozhin said. “For 10 years I have only used cash,” he went on, claiming that the money is intended for the payment of Wagner fighters’ salaries — and compensation to the families of those who have died. https://www.politico.eu/article/live-blog-putin-warns-of-civil-war-amid-russia-mutiny/ | ||
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KwarK
United States43964 Posts
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Simberto
Germany11820 Posts
On June 25 2023 01:55 Neneu wrote: I would be very careful about underestimating a mercenary army consisting of battle-hardened and highly professional soldiers, whose leadership have orchestrated and performed several successful military coups in Africa over the last decade. This time they are even on home turf, with considerable support from civilians and low ranking soldiers. Also, dictatorships are fundamentally pretty unstable. Once it appears that Wagner is winning, more people will always have supported Wagner. Once it appears that Wagner is losing, everyone will show that they have always supported Putin. No one has any actual principles or real loyalty, because that is not how corrupt regimes work. | ||
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Lmui
Canada6223 Posts
One group seized Rostov and the supply depots there, the other is the group marching on Moscow from Voronezh "Marching" being the non-literal term for what they're doing. I don't think there's enough anti-tank weapons to stop a BMP near Moscow. Armoured vehicles are basically immune to most small arms fire, and you have Wagner vs the children of elites who are assigned to Moscow to be safe from the war while still "contributing" to the military. The other thing that's interesting is what it'll do for supply lines in Ukraine. I don't expect the front to collacollapse immediately, but it appears that Rostov was one of the main supply areas, with a lot of fuel etc that is now in the hands of Wagner. May we live in interesting times. | ||
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datscilly
United States529 Posts
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/24/wagner-troops-may-reach-moscow-by-evening-as-kremlin-hurries-to-intercept One thing that was already known, but is made plain here, is that the portion of Wagner moving towards Moscow is only part of Wagner; the other part is in Rostov (Rostov-on-Don), in the south near Ukraine. Prigozhin is probably around there and could survive for a week or two even if he's in a losing battle against the Russian military. | ||
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Silvanel
Poland4751 Posts
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Sent.
Poland9296 Posts
On June 25 2023 02:04 Lmui wrote: I don't think there's enough anti-tank weapons to stop a BMP near Moscow. Armoured vehicles are basically immune to most small arms fire, and you have Wagner vs the children of elites who are assigned to Moscow to be safe from the war while still "contributing" to the military. They could stop those BMPs with their airforce if they really wanted to, but it's understandable they want to resolve this without destroying their own equipment. | ||
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xM(Z
Romania5299 Posts
On June 25 2023 01:57 KwarK wrote: i'm giving Putin 2/3 chances to remain in power but about the second part of your idea ... i'm not seeing it yet. i can see Putin engaging in "grand gesturing" in trying to restore his image post-coup; and i mean grand gestures ... including blowing off zaporozhye power plant. My money is on Putin surviving this crisis but not retaining power long term. This is just too personally damaging to his leadership. | ||
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PhoenixVoid
Canada32747 Posts
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
On June 25 2023 02:13 Sent. wrote: They could stop those BMPs with their airforce if they really wanted to, but it's understandable they want to resolve this without destroying their own equipment. They have already lost several Helicopters etc. Also: | ||
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Vindicare605
United States16121 Posts
On June 25 2023 02:04 Lmui wrote: From what I've read, granted it's emerging news, there's two groups of Wagner. One group seized Rostov and the supply depots there, the other is the group marching on Moscow from Voronezh "Marching" being the non-literal term for what they're doing. I don't think there's enough anti-tank weapons to stop a BMP near Moscow. Armoured vehicles are basically immune to most small arms fire, and you have Wagner vs the children of elites who are assigned to Moscow to be safe from the war while still "contributing" to the military. The other thing that's interesting is what it'll do for supply lines in Ukraine. I don't expect the front to collacollapse immediately, but it appears that Rostov was one of the main supply areas, with a lot of fuel etc that is now in the hands of Wagner. May we live in interesting times. You're missing a key factor here. Wagner doesn't have any air power. ANY air power at all. That's all Russian Military. And the Russians haven't been using most of their air power in Ukraine because they can't fly missions safely due to how much air defense the Ukrainians have. They have plenty of air power sitting at bases in Russia waiting for orders to fly. There's mixed reports from twitter about Wagner already shooting down helicopters and more airstrikes on the convoy (it's hard to tell what kind of strikes these are or where they happened) but a single convoy on a highway that has no air cover would make a very easy target for Helicopter and Jet strikes. If Wagner can actually GET to Moscow I think things will get very crazy, but from how this is stacked up on paper, I don't think they have a chance of actually making it all the way to Moscow unless something else happens like Russian Airforce units defect or something. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
On June 25 2023 02:15 PhoenixVoid wrote: Lukashenko says he's reached negotiations between Putin and Prigozhin to end hostilities. I've just now seen a denial from Prigozhin. https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1672653544439136260 If true then we have truly reached the Russian version of the Emperor having no clothes moment. A vassal having to bail out, as well as rescue, the supposed ruler.. | ||
[Phantom]
Mexico2170 Posts
On June 25 2023 01:47 Falling wrote: @Phantom You keep saying it's suspicious that Wagner is travelling so fast (bullet trains and the like). What exactly are you suspicious of? Do you have an alternative theory in mind? What I think it’s just that there is a lot of miss information on where the troops are and what are their motives. This being a coup doesn’t make any sense. And people are letting their excitement of Russia possibly losing cloud their judgment. I just read a Reddit comment that’s sums it up nicely People thinking that Moscow will fall to Wagner are wayyyyy too optimistic. Even if Wagner was reinforced by some defectors from the Russian army (Let's say they, super optimistically, grew their forces to 70 000), Moscow remains a huge city of 12 millions. Let's not forget that even with a complete assault from multiple sides, Russia wasn't even close to conquering Kyiv, which 'only' houses a bit under 3 millions inhabitants. However, it'll still depend on the fervor of Putin's loyalists. If they back him 100%, there is 0 chance for Wagner to even come close to inflicting real damage to the capital. I said a couple of post ago that this doesn’t make sense as a coup but maybe as a way to get more control of the military and not only of his mercenary group. Or maybe something else but a coup makes no sense. Like another poster just said they don’t even have any air support. And NATO sure as hell won’t be supplying them with anti air weapons like they’ve done with ukraine | ||
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