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Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 476

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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.

Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
Kreuger
Profile Joined October 2011
Sweden839 Posts
June 24 2023 17:24 GMT
#9501
Until confirmation from Wagner regarding what Lukashenko claims im very sceptic
Sent.
Profile Joined June 2012
Poland9284 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-06-24 17:26:31
June 24 2023 17:26 GMT
#9502
Prigozhin already denied this apparently.
You're now breathing manually
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
June 24 2023 17:26 GMT
#9503
Russian social media is reporting that Ukraine has crossed the Dnipro and fighting is ongoing.

"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
JoinTheRain
Profile Blog Joined September 2018
Bulgaria409 Posts
June 24 2023 17:27 GMT
#9504
That's so wild and idk if anyone's sure what Wagner want and what their agenda is. Do they want to rule Russia? Can Prigozhin be a president after a coup? Will they disband government and try to establish some sort of democracy similar to when USSR collapsed? I was a child back then and I don't remember anything but my dad said it was weird and people even in Bulgaria had no idea what to expect. Now we're way safer cause of NATO and EU so there's that.
Anyway, I feel like Prigozhin is crazier than Putin so to have him in charge of their nuclear arsenal doesn't seem preferable. I mean I strongly disapprove of both but Putin seems to me to be the lesser evil albeit not by much. We'll just have to wait and see. I'm in shock.
The subject-matter of the art of living is each person's own life.
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States43670 Posts
June 24 2023 17:27 GMT
#9505
Progozhin is a liar and him turning back makes no sense, he wins or he dies. There is no deescalation to be had, though I’d believe that he promised some.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
Aeromi
Profile Blog Joined August 2012
France14461 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-06-24 17:29:35
June 24 2023 17:28 GMT
#9506
Edit: nvm
https://twitter.com/DrAeromi | Updates on live tournaments: @StarCrafteSport
Kreuger
Profile Joined October 2011
Sweden839 Posts
June 24 2023 17:28 GMT
#9507
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1672657227847483392?cxt=HHwWgIC2jd-4vLYuAAAA

"And now Prigozhin: “There were negotiations, but no deal”"


Yea, Luka is probably full of shit
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States43670 Posts
June 24 2023 17:30 GMT
#9508
On June 25 2023 02:28 Kreuger wrote:
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1672657227847483392?cxt=HHwWgIC2jd-4vLYuAAAA

"And now Prigozhin: “There were negotiations, but no deal”"


Yea, Luka is probably full of shit

Third option. Prigozhin tells Luka that there’s a deal hoping to create more chaos in the information space.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
Mafe
Profile Joined February 2011
Germany5966 Posts
June 24 2023 17:31 GMT
#9509
This looks scary, then again so did the turkish coup attempt a few years ago and that didnt get very far (still a very mystifying piece of history even now). Now if for some reason Wagner had planned sufficiently ahead on how get rid of Putin, this would be a different thing. I guess only time will tell, but maybe within 24 hours this might already look like a movie that's over while you're still wondering about the five plot holes from the first half hour.
Kreuger
Profile Joined October 2011
Sweden839 Posts
June 24 2023 17:32 GMT
#9510
On June 25 2023 02:30 KwarK wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 25 2023 02:28 Kreuger wrote:
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1672657227847483392?cxt=HHwWgIC2jd-4vLYuAAAA

"And now Prigozhin: “There were negotiations, but no deal”"


Yea, Luka is probably full of shit

Third option. Prigozhin tells Luka that there’s a deal hoping to create more chaos in the information space.


Its possible, either way theres no deal to be had atm.
Vindicare605
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States16121 Posts
June 24 2023 17:34 GMT
#9511
On June 25 2023 02:27 KwarK wrote:
Progozhin is a liar and him turning back makes no sense, he wins or he dies. There is no deescalation to be had, though I’d believe that he promised some.


Everything that any one of the major players here says has major spin to try and draw public support to them and away from the other sides.
Progozhin wants to make this look like a clean "strictly business" thing between him and the officials in the Russian government. He doesn't want to make civilians panic that there's going to be carnage in the streets.

Putin wants to downplay how bad this actually is, and wants to make sure that no one else gets any bright ideas.

Lukashenko, i don't know, wants to make it look like he's involved somehow because he needs to stay relevant.

You can't trust anything any of them say, although in Proghozhin's case you can at least trust him when he says that he has an axe to grind with Russian leadership. That part at least is indisputable at this point.
aka: KTVindicare the Geeky Bartender
maybenexttime
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
Poland5760 Posts
June 24 2023 17:36 GMT
#9512
On June 25 2023 02:20 Vindicare605 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 25 2023 02:04 Lmui wrote:
From what I've read, granted it's emerging news, there's two groups of Wagner.
One group seized Rostov and the supply depots there, the other is the group marching on Moscow from Voronezh

"Marching" being the non-literal term for what they're doing.

I don't think there's enough anti-tank weapons to stop a BMP near Moscow. Armoured vehicles are basically immune to most small arms fire, and you have Wagner vs the children of elites who are assigned to Moscow to be safe from the war while still "contributing" to the military.

The other thing that's interesting is what it'll do for supply lines in Ukraine. I don't expect the front to collacollapse immediately, but it appears that Rostov was one of the main supply areas, with a lot of fuel etc that is now in the hands of Wagner.

May we live in interesting times.


You're missing a key factor here. Wagner doesn't have any air power. ANY air power at all. That's all Russian Military. And the Russians haven't been using most of their air power in Ukraine because they can't fly missions safely due to how much air defense the Ukrainians have. They have plenty of air power sitting at bases in Russia waiting for orders to fly.

There's mixed reports from twitter about Wagner already shooting down helicopters and more airstrikes on the convoy (it's hard to tell what kind of strikes these are or where they happened) but a single convoy on a highway that has no air cover would make a very easy target for Helicopter and Jet strikes.

If Wagner can actually GET to Moscow I think things will get very crazy, but from how this is stacked up on paper, I don't think they have a chance of actually making it all the way to Moscow unless something else happens like Russian Airforce units defect or something.

Did Wagner lose all their aircrafts? Because they had both fighter jets and helicopters.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22127 Posts
June 24 2023 17:37 GMT
#9513
On June 25 2023 02:23 [Phantom] wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 25 2023 01:47 Falling wrote:
@Phantom

You keep saying it's suspicious that Wagner is travelling so fast (bullet trains and the like). What exactly are you suspicious of? Do you have an alternative theory in mind?


What I think it’s just that there is a lot of miss information on where the troops are and what are their motives.

This being a coup doesn’t make any sense. And people are letting their excitement of Russia possibly losing cloud their judgment.

I just read a Reddit comment that’s sums it up nicely

Show nested quote +
People thinking that Moscow will fall to Wagner are wayyyyy too optimistic.

Even if Wagner was reinforced by some defectors from the Russian army (Let's say they, super optimistically, grew their forces to 70 000), Moscow remains a huge city of 12 millions.

Let's not forget that even with a complete assault from multiple sides, Russia wasn't even close to conquering Kyiv, which 'only' houses a bit under 3 millions inhabitants.

However, it'll still depend on the fervor of Putin's loyalists. If they back him 100%, there is 0 chance for Wagner to even come close to inflicting real damage to the capital.



I said a couple of post ago that this doesn’t make sense as a coup but maybe as a way to get more control of the military and not only of his mercenary group.

Or maybe something else but a coup makes no sense. Like another poster just said they don’t even have any air support. And NATO sure as hell won’t be supplying them with anti air weapons like they’ve done with ukraine
Kyiv resisted because they were being invaded by a butchering foreign power
Moscow isn't going to resist. The people are not going to throw themselves in front of vehicles to save Putin. They just want to live to see next week.
Wagner could absolutely 'take' Moscow is no one is willing to lay down their lives to stop him.

Holding it ofcourse is an entirely different matter but the image of Wagner troops standing in front of the Kremlin with their flag flying from the towers would be a massive blow to Putin.

Prig has seen enough people fall out of windows to know that if he lost the internal power struggle with the MoD that he was next. His option was fight or die. He is fighting.
If you corner a wild animal you shouldn't act surprised that he lashes out rather then accept his fate and wait for death.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-06-24 17:47:41
June 24 2023 17:44 GMT
#9514
None of this makes sense. So Putin had to be rescued by a Vassal puppet state via diplomacy because Moscow could not be defended, meanwhile the PMC and it's ruler goes back with everything and in an even stronger position?

In what world would either allow that to happen? I mean this is not a scenario Putin would want in any shape or form, he essentially just proved how powerless he is but also a coward as well.
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Lmui
Profile Joined November 2010
Canada6223 Posts
June 24 2023 17:47 GMT
#9515
On June 25 2023 02:20 Vindicare605 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 25 2023 02:04 Lmui wrote:
From what I've read, granted it's emerging news, there's two groups of Wagner.
One group seized Rostov and the supply depots there, the other is the group marching on Moscow from Voronezh

"Marching" being the non-literal term for what they're doing.

I don't think there's enough anti-tank weapons to stop a BMP near Moscow. Armoured vehicles are basically immune to most small arms fire, and you have Wagner vs the children of elites who are assigned to Moscow to be safe from the war while still "contributing" to the military.

The other thing that's interesting is what it'll do for supply lines in Ukraine. I don't expect the front to collacollapse immediately, but it appears that Rostov was one of the main supply areas, with a lot of fuel etc that is now in the hands of Wagner.

May we live in interesting times.


You're missing a key factor here. Wagner doesn't have any air power. ANY air power at all. That's all Russian Military. And the Russians haven't been using most of their air power in Ukraine because they can't fly missions safely due to how much air defense the Ukrainians have. They have plenty of air power sitting at bases in Russia waiting for orders to fly.

There's mixed reports from twitter about Wagner already shooting down helicopters and more airstrikes on the convoy (it's hard to tell what kind of strikes these are or where they happened) but a single convoy on a highway that has no air cover would make a very easy target for Helicopter and Jet strikes.

If Wagner can actually GET to Moscow I think things will get very crazy, but from how this is stacked up on paper, I don't think they have a chance of actually making it all the way to Moscow unless something else happens like Russian Airforce units defect or something.


Does Moscow have enough air power to actually stop the convoy in any meaningful capacity? They can't just bomb/level their own cities, Putin presumably would want to avoid that at almost all costs. While Wagner is traveling on the highway it could work, but once they reach the suburbs of Moscow, it's a no-go
xM(Z
Profile Joined November 2006
Romania5299 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-06-24 17:52:06
June 24 2023 17:48 GMT
#9516
Members of PMC Wagner Group had reportedly crossed the borders of Moscow Oblast as of 1700 local time on June 24 and have been advancing further, Russian Telegram channels reported on June 24.

They are said to be in the town of Barabanovo, which is two hours away from the Russian capital city of Moscow.

Before that, the Wagnerite column was spotted on the M4 highway between the town of Yelets in Lipetsk Oblast and the town of Yefremov in Tula Oblast (the distance between them is about 80 kilometers).
proukrainian source but still, the civil war is being broadcasted live on local russian Telegram media; "Wagnerites" movements are tracked live locally.
And my fury stands ready. I bring all your plans to nought. My bleak heart beats steady. 'Tis you whom I have sought.
Magic Powers
Profile Joined April 2012
Austria4478 Posts
June 24 2023 17:51 GMT
#9517
On June 25 2023 02:44 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
None of this makes sense. So Putin had to be rescued by a Vassal puppet state via diplomacy because Moscow could not be defended, meanwhile the PMC and it's ruler goes back with everything and in an even stronger position?

In what world would either allow that to happen? I mean this is not a scenario Putin would want in any shape or form, he essentially just proved how powerless he is but also a coward as well.


It doesn't make sense because it's fake. Prigozhin knows he's all-in and he's not stupid enough to fall for any shenanigans. He's a warlord for crying out loud, he understands deception better than anyone.
If you want to do the right thing, 80% of your job is done if you don't do the wrong thing.
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States43670 Posts
June 24 2023 17:56 GMT
#9518
BBC reporting a Prigozhin voice message ordering his troops to stand down. Could easily be deepfake, if it’s not then nothing makes sense.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
TheCheapSkate
Profile Joined August 2011
Slovenia317 Posts
June 24 2023 17:56 GMT
#9519
Nah it's not fake, the situation has deescalated. Looks like the west has been fooled again
[Phantom]
Profile Blog Joined August 2013
Mexico2170 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-06-24 18:01:37
June 24 2023 17:57 GMT
#9520
Guys don’t ingnore me just because you want this coup to be true. It would be a suicide mission with zero chance of success. Even if he gets Moscow miracously there is still the rest of Russia. Hitler got Moscow.

This is not a coup attempt you’re being played
WriterTeamLiquid Staff writer since 2014 @Mortal_Phantom
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