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On June 25 2023 00:23 Jockmcplop wrote:
Just saw an interview with US General Hodges where says that he thinks this is the beginning of the end of the war and that we'll see Russian troops go home within weeks.
I don't see it at all myself, but i'm not a general.
I can see it, no matter who wins the power struggle they can blame the losing side for the war effort no longer being sustainable. But it's far from a given and if it happens I don't think it would include abandoning Crimea.
On June 24 2023 23:52 Zaros wrote:
This was clearly a well prepared plan, some Russian MOD must have joined this revolt hence the ease with which they crossed the border and moved into the cities.
Once your at that point they are going to be coming up against small amounts of Russian forces which probably don't stand a chance against 25k troops, so they let Wagner through or join to avoid death and now Russia is scrambling to get a big enough force to Moscow which won't just get rolled over.
This is my take as well, the idea that this was some impulsive reaction to an army strike on Wagner is kind of a joke. The logistics of this operation had to have taken days of planning. And building up a network of allies within the army would have taken even longer. My only confusion about all this is regarding the FSB, they should have sniffed it out very quickly.
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On June 25 2023 00:10 [Phantom] wrote:
Well… we’ll see what happens. I think it is still suspicious but we’ll see.
According to google maps… moscu is 1255 km away from Rostov or 15 hours. But that’s going fast in a highway and tanks and walking people don’t move that fast. So maybe some forces can move in trucks and get there later today or tomorrow but most of the army won’t be there until at least 2 days
Edit
According to another poster above they are now in a closet city called Voronezhe, but still
They are not moving from Rostov to Moscow, they moved on both Rostov and Moscow, it's two different forces
see https://deepstatemap.live/en
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On June 25 2023 00:40 Dan HH wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2023 00:23 Jockmcplop wrote:
Just saw an interview with US General Hodges where says that he thinks this is the beginning of the end of the war and that we'll see Russian troops go home within weeks.
I don't see it at all myself, but i'm not a general. I can see it, no matter who wins the power struggle they can blame the losing side for the war effort no longer being sustainable. But it's far from a given and if it happens I don't think it would include abandoning Crimea. Show nested quote +On June 24 2023 23:52 Zaros wrote:
This was clearly a well prepared plan, some Russian MOD must have joined this revolt hence the ease with which they crossed the border and moved into the cities.
Once your at that point they are going to be coming up against small amounts of Russian forces which probably don't stand a chance against 25k troops, so they let Wagner through or join to avoid death and now Russia is scrambling to get a big enough force to Moscow which won't just get rolled over. This is my take as well, the idea that this was some impulsive reaction to an army strike on Wagner is kind of a joke. The logistics of this operation had to have taken days of planning. And building up a network of allies within the army would have taken even longer. My only confusion about all this is regarding the FSB, they should have sniffed it out very quickly. Abandoning Crimea isn't a choice, without a land bridge there is no way an army will be able to hold out there once the bridge connection to Russia is inevitably destroyed
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United States43964 Posts
On June 25 2023 00:43 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2023 00:40 Dan HH wrote:On June 25 2023 00:23 Jockmcplop wrote:
Just saw an interview with US General Hodges where says that he thinks this is the beginning of the end of the war and that we'll see Russian troops go home within weeks.
I don't see it at all myself, but i'm not a general. I can see it, no matter who wins the power struggle they can blame the losing side for the war effort no longer being sustainable. But it's far from a given and if it happens I don't think it would include abandoning Crimea. On June 24 2023 23:52 Zaros wrote:
This was clearly a well prepared plan, some Russian MOD must have joined this revolt hence the ease with which they crossed the border and moved into the cities.
Once your at that point they are going to be coming up against small amounts of Russian forces which probably don't stand a chance against 25k troops, so they let Wagner through or join to avoid death and now Russia is scrambling to get a big enough force to Moscow which won't just get rolled over. This is my take as well, the idea that this was some impulsive reaction to an army strike on Wagner is kind of a joke. The logistics of this operation had to have taken days of planning. And building up a network of allies within the army would have taken even longer. My only confusion about all this is regarding the FSB, they should have sniffed it out very quickly. Abandoning Crimea isn't a choice, without a land bridge there is no way an army will be able to hold out there once the bridge connection to Russia is inevitably destroyed
But it’s still theirs on the map. The issue is the repeat of a WW1 western front situation where Germany was defeated but German soil wasn’t occupied. That led to a stabbed in the back by leadership myth.
Crimea may be untenable but Ukrainian troops are not in Crimea yet. It’s hard to surrender and retain popularity.
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Germans needed 8 months to take Sevastopol in 1942, I don't think it's impossible to hold Crimea indefinitely against Ukraine.
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On June 25 2023 00:39 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2023 00:10 [Phantom] wrote:
Well… we’ll see what happens. I think it is still suspicious but we’ll see.
According to google maps… moscu is 1255 km away from Rostov or 15 hours. But that’s going fast in a highway and tanks and walking people don’t move that fast. So maybe some forces can move in trucks and get there later today or tomorrow but most of the army won’t be there until at least 2 days
Edit
According to another poster above they are now in a closet city called Voronezhe, but still I'd also like to mention that i don't think people here are pro-Prigozhin. Most people here are pro-Ukraine. We just view this from the perspective that shit happening in Russia has a good chance to make them no longer want to be in a war, or that it makes conducting said war harder. Prigozhin is a murderous criminal. Putin is also a murderous criminal. Them fighting is good. I truly hope that Russia somehow manages to pull out of this as a prosperous real democracy which respects the human rights of its citizens and the borders of its neighbours. I just view this as unlikely. So for now, anything that leads to them keeping their shit in their country is also good. Weird rebellion/coup stuff happening in the enemy nation is usually a good thing.
I think you using word good here rather frivolously. Civil war in a country with second largest nuclear arsenal led by 2 people not exactly known for moral scruples, shouldn't be classified as "good" thing.
As for Prigozhin no facing any resistance I would dare a guess that logistics may be at leas in part culprit.
End of the day he had 25k troops ready and started march about 24hrs ago, disregarding whether Russia have enough "spare" troops to stop him, they simply didnt have enough time so far. Even if they didnt have any soldiers in Ukraine, organizing force to stop 25k troops would require moving troops from several bases.
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Prigozhin is trying to to do Putin(Rus) what Putin intended/tried to do to Zelensky(Ukr): blitz, occupy, depose, rule.
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Well what if this is a plan to make Putin image strong again ? He order to destroy that wagner company of criminals. Pay very well to the boss of wagner for the sacrifice. I suspect a lot of Putin enemies will be revealed now too so maybe he can get rid of them in the process. I dont really buy the we dont bomb our own people. If im about to loss the country im 100% using planes to destroy that 25k army for sure. Or mb just Putin dont have any more supporters and the people in the FSB just decided is time for him to go.
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On June 25 2023 01:04 Sent. wrote:
Germans needed 8 months to take Sevastopol in 1942, I don't think it's impossible to hold Crimea indefinitely against Ukraine.
Nah, they wont be able to.
1941-1942 Soviet had a capable army and still lost 200k men during that siege.
Ukraine has weapons that will make a siege far shorter
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On June 25 2023 01:09 [sc1f]eonzerg wrote:
Well what if this is a plan to make Putin image strong again ? He order to destroy that wagner company of criminals. Pay very well to the boss of wagner for the sacrifice. I suspect a lot of Putin enemies will be revealed now too so maybe he can get rid of them in the process. I dont really buy the we dont bomb our own people. If im about to loss the country im 100% using planes to destroy that 25k army for sure. Or mb just Putin dont have any more supporters and the people in the FSB just decided is time for him to go.
So why did they not do that in Ukraine right after Bahkmut? Instead they have allowed a PMC, in two separate advances, take two cities and be headed towards Moscow....
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United States43964 Posts
On June 25 2023 01:09 [sc1f]eonzerg wrote:
Well what if this is a plan to make Putin image strong again ? He order to destroy that wagner company of criminals. Pay very well to the boss of wagner for the sacrifice. I suspect a lot of Putin enemies will be revealed now too so maybe he can get rid of them in the process. I dont really buy the we dont bomb our own people. If im about to loss the country im 100% using planes to destroy that 25k army for sure. Or mb just Putin dont have any more supporters and the people in the FSB just decided is time for him to go.
I don’t think there’s any way to come out of this looking good for Putin, especially given it took him 10 hours to say anything. Erdogan’s staged coup was an example of what you’re describing but that had him on the media non stop from the first seconds.
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On June 25 2023 01:12 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2023 01:09 [sc1f]eonzerg wrote:
Well what if this is a plan to make Putin image strong again ? He order to destroy that wagner company of criminals. Pay very well to the boss of wagner for the sacrifice. I suspect a lot of Putin enemies will be revealed now too so maybe he can get rid of them in the process. I dont really buy the we dont bomb our own people. If im about to loss the country im 100% using planes to destroy that 25k army for sure. Or mb just Putin dont have any more supporters and the people in the FSB just decided is time for him to go. So why did they not do that in Ukraine right after Bahkmut? Instead they have allowed a PMC, in two separate advances, take two cities and be headed towards Moscow....
This is extreme fictional by me but wouldnt it be more impactful this way? Who really will care wagner army die in Ukraine ?
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I have a feeling these vague messages of support for Putin from the Regions, the lack of response from any military to the Wagner push is now part of a wider opportunity for each of the actors in the Russian State.
They will allow Wagner to overthrow Putin, then characterize themselves as Putin's Avenger, "Defender of Democracy" and crush Wagner shortly afterwards. You then have a chaotic powerplay between the various factions such as Kadyrov and Gerasimov.
Note Kadyrov is heading to Rostov on don not Moscow which you would have thought is the more pressing issue.
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On June 25 2023 00:43 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2023 00:40 Dan HH wrote:On June 25 2023 00:23 Jockmcplop wrote:
Just saw an interview with US General Hodges where says that he thinks this is the beginning of the end of the war and that we'll see Russian troops go home within weeks.
I don't see it at all myself, but i'm not a general. I can see it, no matter who wins the power struggle they can blame the losing side for the war effort no longer being sustainable. But it's far from a given and if it happens I don't think it would include abandoning Crimea. On June 24 2023 23:52 Zaros wrote:
This was clearly a well prepared plan, some Russian MOD must have joined this revolt hence the ease with which they crossed the border and moved into the cities.
Once your at that point they are going to be coming up against small amounts of Russian forces which probably don't stand a chance against 25k troops, so they let Wagner through or join to avoid death and now Russia is scrambling to get a big enough force to Moscow which won't just get rolled over. This is my take as well, the idea that this was some impulsive reaction to an army strike on Wagner is kind of a joke. The logistics of this operation had to have taken days of planning. And building up a network of allies within the army would have taken even longer. My only confusion about all this is regarding the FSB, they should have sniffed it out very quickly. Abandoning Crimea isn't a choice, without a land bridge there is no way an army will be able to hold out there once the bridge connection to Russia is inevitably destroyed
Well, there would still be the sea route which they control and will continue to do so, the one thing Ukraine can't get (at least in a timely manner) is a navy. And I would expect some kind of deal to be involved in this scenario rather than just leaving elswhere and continuing to fight in Crimea. But we're getting ahead of ourselves.
On June 25 2023 00:39 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2023 00:10 [Phantom] wrote:
Well… we’ll see what happens. I think it is still suspicious but we’ll see.
According to google maps… moscu is 1255 km away from Rostov or 15 hours. But that’s going fast in a highway and tanks and walking people don’t move that fast. So maybe some forces can move in trucks and get there later today or tomorrow but most of the army won’t be there until at least 2 days
Edit
According to another poster above they are now in a closet city called Voronezhe, but still I'd also like to mention that i don't think people here are pro-Prigozhin. Most people here are pro-Ukraine. We just view this from the perspective that shit happening in Russia has a good chance to make them no longer want to be in a war, or that it makes conducting said war harder. Prigozhin is a murderous criminal. Putin is also a murderous criminal. Them fighting is good. I truly hope that Russia somehow manages to pull out of this as a prosperous real democracy which respects the human rights of its citizens and the borders of its neighbours. I just view this as unlikely. So for now, anything that leads to them keeping their shit in their country is also good. Weird rebellion/coup stuff happening in the enemy nation is usually a good thing.
Yeah, he was imprisoned for things like attacking women on the street to steal their purses. The guy has been an absolute goon his entire life, no one's going to want to sit with him at a table. I don't know what role he envisons for himself if he succeeds but I don't see him as future head of state.
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Mexico2170 Posts
I think maybe when they get to Moscu they will just meet with Putin, arrange a deal and better conditions, give more power to them like making him the head of all Russian forces, and then go back to fight in Ukraine.
And then Putin will try to backstab him.
It just doesn't make any sense.
There are reports that they are less than 400km from moscu now. It seems the whole army took a bullet train or something. And no one is doing anything?
Imagine if this happened in the USA, in border Mexico in San diegoand they were moving towards north. They wouldn't get to even los angeles even if 90% of the US army was overseas.
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I find negotiations very difficult when Putin declared Prigozhin a traitor and a Wagner Telegram channel said there will be a new president at the end of this. Those aren't statements you can easily walk back from. Again, it's possible Russia's government and military elites are tacitly supporting Prigozhin here, the Russian populace doesn't really care who wins, and the Russian forces in Russia aren't the best equipped to deal with this.
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United States43964 Posts
One argument the BBC analyst made was that this is specifically and undeniably Putin’s fault. Putin brought Prigozhin in as part of his divide and conquer strategy to deliberately create infighting within the military. PMCs are illegal but Putin specifically exempted Wagner from prosecution. Criticism of the military is illegal but Putin blocked prosecution because he liked being able to use Prigozhin as a mouthpiece to criticize commanders while keeping his own hands clean. Losses in the military are unpopular but Putin used Wagner to lose men off the books. The military establishment always hated Wagner because Wagner existed only to undercut them and their influence. They’ve wanted to cull them forever but Putin refused to let them because he felt it would give them too much influence and he wanted a counterbalance.
Putin specifically invited the wolf to the fireside and he specifically overruled everyone else who said it was a bad idea. He insisted that he could place a leash on the wolf and planned to use the wolf to intimidate his rivals.
Now it’s biting everyone there’s not really any way for Putin to wash his hands of this. It’s his wolf and everyone knows it.
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On June 25 2023 01:32 [Phantom] wrote:
I think maybe when they get to Moscu they will just meet with Putin, arrange a deal and better conditions, give more power to them like making him the head of all Russian forces, and then go back to fight in Ukraine.
And then Putin will try to backstab him.
It just doesn't make any sense.
There are reports that they are less than 400km from moscu now. It seems the whole army took a bullet train or something. And no one is doing anything?
Imagine if this happened in the USA, in border Mexico in San diegoand they were moving towards north. They wouldn't get to even los angeles even if 90% of the US army was overseas.
Prigozhin is a traitor, there's not even the slightest chance he gets a seat at any table. He gets the rope unless his coup is successful.
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On June 25 2023 01:32 [Phantom] wrote:
I think maybe when they get to Moscu they will just meet with Putin, arrange a deal and better conditions, give more power to them like making him the head of all Russian forces, and then go back to fight in Ukraine.
And then Putin will try to backstab him.
It just doesn't make any sense.
There are reports that they are less than 400km from moscu now. It seems the whole army took a bullet train or something. And no one is doing anything?
Imagine if this happened in the USA, in border Mexico in San diegoand they were moving towards north. They wouldn't get to even los angeles even if 90% of the US army was overseas.
They have trucks and apcs etc to carry everything so they are going to be doing decent speed on a motorway. And no, no one is blocking them because the defence is panicked and disorganised, plus I suspect some of the military are support it.
This isn't like another country invading where you get a united response.
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EPT
