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On June 25 2023 03:06 [sc1f]eonzerg wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2023 03:03 Dan HH wrote:
Yeah it's over, Prig blinked first. He wasn't willing to start blasting on Russians and not enough of the army joined him. So him and his army are dead now ? U dont comeback from a move like this lol. What was this situation all about honestly.
Hard to say but no, we won't see mass executions or anything like that. Maybe Prig fleeing to Africa and his grunts being painted as victims of deception?
At this point I can't even exclude Wagner itself surviving this as an organization somehow, Russia is a weird country.
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Any actual evidence that the advance has stopped?
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I'm inclined to believe that there actually was a deal, and Prigozhin got something he wanted, if the 5000 Wagner mercenaries in fact have backed off from Moscow.
The possibility that this was all orchestrated and that the Wagner mutiny was staged, doesn't make sense, and seems unlikely. Most likely is to take the events of the last 24h at face value, and there was some power struggle. Hence, the guess of the causes behind the scenes from my first paragraph.
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On June 25 2023 03:14 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2023 03:13 Artesimo wrote:On June 25 2023 03:09 KwarK wrote:On June 25 2023 03:06 Artesimo wrote:On June 25 2023 03:00 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:On June 25 2023 02:57 [Phantom] wrote:
Guys don’t ingnore me just because you want this coup to be true. It would be a suicide mission with zero chance of success. Even if he gets Moscow miracously there is still the rest of Russia. Hitler got Moscow.
This is not a coup attempt you’re being played So Russia wants to fake out the world that not only did they lose two regions, several aircraft, and nearly Moscow in less than 24hrs to a PMC. Only for them to be rescued by diplomacy via a puppet state? I don't think that "losing 2 regions and nearly moscow" is an accurate representation of having some armed guys show up in 2 cities and being hundreds of kilometres away from moscow. That is about as far from reality as saying nothing at all happened imo. Hundreds of kilometers is a long way if it’s filled with armed trenches and a very short way if it’s a clear road and you’re in vehicles. This was the latter, this was an existential threat to the Putin regime. That is not what I contested, I contested the notion that being a couple hundred kilometres away translates to "almost losing moscow". That is sensationalism or hysteria at best. If there is no one willing to stand and defend a city is lost the moment enemy troops enter it...
Sounds exactly like counting your chickens before they hatch. "If they make it there unpestered with enough troops and equipment, and nobody resits, then the city is practically lost". Like come on, how is this even a contentious statement. I know we all want to dunk on russia, but lets not look like clowns while doing so. Especially now that it looks like wagner might have flinched at the first sign of organised resistance.
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On June 25 2023 03:16 [Phantom] wrote:
Sorry, Napoleon took moscow not hitler, sorry about that.
But yeah, again, with this thing starting and ending with basically no resistance whatsoever (1 reported small engagement or two), doesn't make sense. No big attack from wagner group, and no big defense agaisnt them, and it's over?
I'm not necessarily saying this was made necessarily to affect ukraine/the west, but maybe it was just a powerplay so wegner would get more control of the military, with him hoping he could lead the whole war/russian army, or maybe he was deceived by putin into openly revolting so he could take care of him and make him lose the power he had gathered. Now he has a perfect excuse to remove him at it would be understandable.
Those make way more sense than trying a coup that was doomed to fail. Even if he got into moscow he would have been killed and wouldn't have taken control of the country.
You're saying it could be a powerplay by Prigozhin and that there was little resistance from the pro-Putin forces. If the powerplay was by Prigozhin, why exactly was Putin holding back, making himself look incredibly weak?
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If there was a deal and Prigozhin got something out of this, even a donut, this totally destroys Putin's image. What kind of a dictator leaves a traitor alive ? This has to be the first time in history.
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Im guessing both Shoigu and Gerasimov wont have a job for much longer
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they've stopped advancing to Moscow but Rostov-on-Don?; it'll remain occupied by Wagner?.
it's there Șoigu had his headquarter.
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On June 25 2023 03:20 Zaros wrote:
Any actual evidence that the advance has stopped?
On June 25 2023 03:29 xM(Z wrote:
they've stopped advancing to Moscow but Rostov-on-Don?; it'll remain occupied by Wagner?.
it's there Șoigu had his headquarter.
RT's correspondent on the ground in Rostov-on-Don says the Wagnerites are already packing up and preparing to leave the city. https://t.co/A3R8ukIgEo pic.twitter.com/BPbYyoJliR — Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) June 24, 2023
Link to Tweet -- link to news article
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Just ?????????????????????
Don't think this will help the morale of the troops on the front either. Oh those bunch of traitors you heard about, you will see them soon...
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On June 25 2023 03:29 xM(Z wrote:
they've stopped advancing to Moscow but Rostov-on-Don?; it'll remain occupied by Wagner?.
it's there Șoigu had his headquarter.
Its probably the only leverage they have. Rostov-on-Don is important for russian logistics, so them having control over that might keep prigozhin alive for now. I really hope we get some good documentaries out of this like 10 or so years from now that explain what the writers of this episode were thinking.
If you ever feel like you aren't capable of making it in live, look at how far all these clowns made it, you will most likely do fine.
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If Prigozhin really took a deal, then I'll have to revise my opinion of him. He's a complete dumbfuck. He couldn't have played himself any worse than this. Realistically his chances of survival should now be approximately 0%
So I'll remain skeptical until there's irrefutable confirmation that he halted the mission.
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Is it really that much of a blow to the West or Ukraine if Putin had his authority challenged by a mercenary boss and Russia lost several aircraft? How does pardoning someone you called a traitor in less than 24 hours look good for you? At best, Ukraine got baited into some bad positions from the news and took some casualties.
I'll eat crow in front of [Phantom] for being too critical of the possibility of this boiling over (though I didn't expect the coup to succeed) or being some kind of theater, but really, what does Putin gain? Maybe he exposed some disloyal figures or created an excuse for leadership changes like removing Shoigu? Is there just some Russian political game and showmanship I'm not getting here?
There's some reports of leaks of the negotiations and one of the stipulations is Wagner is redeployed out of Ukraine and into Africa. If true, perhaps Prigozhin wants an easier assignment couping African governments rather than fighting a high-intensity war in Ukraine.
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United States44450 Posts
Nothing about this makes sense as a staged event. Putin comes out of this looking like shit. Bitten by his own dog, going on tv attacking them, then granting them amnesty and giving in to their demands. It’s all humiliating for him.
Meanwhile Prigozhin seems to have come at the king and missed. Maybe he was promised key defections by allies that bailed on him when he pulled the trigger, maybe he was delusional about troops coming to his side like Napoleon’s march on Paris. This outcome can’t have been the one he planned because he has to know he’s under a death sentence. You can’t demand a new president and march on the capital as a bluff. I would happily make a $100 bet with anyone here that Prigozhin dies of unnatural causes in the next 2 years.
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On June 25 2023 03:39 PhoenixVoid wrote:
but really, what does Putin gain? Maybe he exposed some disloyal figures or created an excuse for leadership changes like removing Shogiu? What stopped Putin from removing Shoigu without any of this?
"Our military doesn't have good enough progress under your command, you're fired."
Unless Shoigu's position is more powerful that I think and even Putin cannot remove him...
I don't see how Putin can gain anything from this, his position looks much weaker now - even IF this actually was kinda under control (there are things we don't know), it absolutely did NOT look like it's under control.
His image of a strong man was built over almost 25 years. Yeah, some things are not ideal (or complete shit), but at least we have a real strong man in power, right? He'll keep the order, nobody will mess with him.
And now?
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Russia just went full banana republic. Everybody knows you never go full banana republic.
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On June 25 2023 03:44 KwarK wrote:
Nothing about this makes sense as a staged event. Putin comes out of this looking like shit. Bitten by his own dog, going on tv attacking them, then granting them amnesty and giving in to their demands. It’s all humiliating for him.
Meanwhile Prigozhin seems to have come at the king and missed. Maybe he was promised key defections by allies that bailed on him when he pulled the trigger, maybe he was delusional about troops coming to his side like Napoleon’s march on Paris. This outcome can’t have been the one he planned because he has to know he’s under a death sentence. You can’t demand a new president and march on the capital as a bluff. I would happily make a $100 bet with anyone here that Prigozhin dies of unnatural causes in the next 2 years.
Maybe we're wrong and Putin blinked first. If Wagner got immunity, Prig doesn't even have to flee for his life, and MoD leadership is fired in the next few days then he's pretty much no longer the de facto leader of the country.
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On June 25 2023 03:54 Dan HH wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2023 03:44 KwarK wrote:
Nothing about this makes sense as a staged event. Putin comes out of this looking like shit. Bitten by his own dog, going on tv attacking them, then granting them amnesty and giving in to their demands. It’s all humiliating for him.
Meanwhile Prigozhin seems to have come at the king and missed. Maybe he was promised key defections by allies that bailed on him when he pulled the trigger, maybe he was delusional about troops coming to his side like Napoleon’s march on Paris. This outcome can’t have been the one he planned because he has to know he’s under a death sentence. You can’t demand a new president and march on the capital as a bluff. I would happily make a $100 bet with anyone here that Prigozhin dies of unnatural causes in the next 2 years. Maybe we're wrong and Putin blinked first. If Wagner got immunity, Prig doesn't even have to flee for his life, and MoD leadership is fired in the next few days then he's pretty much no longer the de facto leader of the country. I don't think a pinky promis of immunity works in a dictatorship.
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On June 25 2023 03:54 Dan HH wrote:
If Wagner got immunity... You cannot have immunity by yourself unless you're the strongest dog in a pack, otherwise it's always granted by someone bigger/stronger. And then this someone can change his opinion real fast at any moment.
I'm with Kwark on this - Prig cannot be left alive and in power now, he's just become a known loose cannon.
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EPT
