EPTRusso-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 479
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
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KwarK
United States44450 Posts
On June 25 2023 03:54 Dan HH wrote: Maybe we're wrong and Putin blinked first. If Wagner got immunity, Prig doesn't even have to flee for his life, and MoD leadership is fired in the next few days then he's pretty much no longer the de facto leader of the country. You don’t come at the king and miss. Wagner depend on the MOD for ammo, equipment, supplies, pay. If they’re put back into combat they could be purposefully degraded. The next time they’re put into a position of making demands they’ll be making demands of a Russian MOD with strategic bombers on standby and every commander’s family will be under FSB house arrest. The military is just one part of Putin’s regime and over the next few days we’ll see the rest utilized. The Wagner propaganda will be erased and the media talking heads will get their new stories. Hostages will be taken by the secret police, bribes will be paid and wealth will be seized. | ||
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Dan HH
Romania9256 Posts
On June 25 2023 03:56 Gorsameth wrote: I don't think a pinky promis of immunity works in a dictatorship. That's assuming that the apparatus still listens to him, which we don't know. | ||
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Lmui
Canada6223 Posts
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/14hsaq9/second_angle_of_the_ka52_avoiding_an/ I don't know who backed down - I'd be tempted to guess it's mostly in favour of Prigo though. He doesn't stay alive if he loses, and he's already been branded a traitor by Putin. Unless he's fleeing to Africa as we speak, there's little reason for Wagner to back down otherwise. | ||
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Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
The "march to freedom" or whatever he called it initially resulted from vodka-fueled rage. It may've been months in the making, but Prigozhin miscalculated the complex impact of a military coup on the collective psychology of his followers. A suicidal but kinda understandable mistake from a powerhungry warlord with way too much alcohol in his blood. Something like that. PS: There's no escaping his fate. The deal is a farce and he probably knows it. He may be trying to buy time so he can pull a Houdini. | ||
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Dan HH
Romania9256 Posts
On June 25 2023 04:01 KwarK wrote: You don’t come at the king and miss. Wagner depend on the MOD for ammo, equipment, supplies, pay. If they’re put back into combat they could be purposefully degraded. The next time they’re put into a position of making demands they’ll be making demands of a Russian MOD with strategic bombers on standby and every commander’s family will be under FSB house arrest. The military is just one part of Putin’s regime and over the next few days we’ll see the rest utilized. The Wagner propaganda will be erased and the media talking heads will get their new stories. Hostages will be taken by the secret police, bribes will be paid and wealth will be seized. I'm just shooting shit here but maybe Luka's grand idea was for Prig to allow Putin to still be the face of the Kremlin without the actual power. I have no idea where the FSB's loyalties lie right now or how many generals were on Prig's side. | ||
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a_ch
Russian Federation240 Posts
On June 25 2023 03:09 Simberto wrote: Is this "being over" really confirmed yet? And if yes, i guess it is another example of Russia being really weird and hard to understand because nothing makes any sense. Meh, thats one of the big reasons why I don't want to move to Munich despite having relatives living there, it is much more fun here | ||
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Vindicare605
United States16129 Posts
Is it possible they made a deal that Pirghozin actually likes? Would he be able to trust it? I guess in his spot he doesnt have a lot of good options. | ||
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PhoenixVoid
Canada32761 Posts
More updates. Wagner who participated can sign with Russia's MoD, while those who didn't are pardoned. No updates on MoD leadership shuffle. Given how Prigozhin said he was angry Wagner would be subsumed by the MoD, this may have been his compromise in exchange for exile and the promise of Shoigu and Gerasimov being removed. | ||
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Vindicare605
United States16129 Posts
On June 25 2023 04:54 PhoenixVoid wrote: TASS reports: "The criminal case against Prigozhin will be dropped and he will move to Belarus, Kremlin says." Explains the Lukashenko intercession. So Prigozhin is exiled in Belarus and Lukashenko will ensure he doesn't act up. bahahaha no fucking way. Like Putin's never assassinated a national in another country before. He can't be that naive enough to actually trust a deal like that? | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom10026 Posts
Russia's entire foreign policy (except Ukraine now I guess) is basically carried out and maintained by Wagner. Their military bases are staffed by Wagner soldiers. | ||
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Artesimo
Germany628 Posts
On June 25 2023 04:57 Jockmcplop wrote: Prigozhin has WAY more leverage than you guys give him credit for. Russia's entire foreign policy (except Ukraine now I guess) is basically carried out and maintained by Wagner. Their military bases are staffed by Wagner soldiers. I don't think they particularly care as long as they are still paid. Its leverage prigozhin has while he is alive because he pays their salary, afterwards I doubt they care. | ||
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Yurie
12186 Posts
On June 25 2023 04:03 Magic Powers wrote: The best hypothesis I can come up with is that Wagner collectively shat their pants halfway to Moscow and told Prigozhin they won't take another step for him. He ends up pleading for his life, knowing full well his days are counted but he sees no better option. The "march to freedom" or whatever he called it initially resulted from vodka-fueled rage. It may've been months in the making, but Prigozhin miscalculated the complex impact of a military coup on the collective psychology of his followers. A suicidal but kinda understandable mistake from a powerhungry warlord with way too much alcohol in his blood. Something like that. PS: There's no escaping his fate. The deal is a farce and he probably knows it. He may be trying to buy time so he can pull a Houdini. I also think this seems the most likely based on what was said in this thread. They could perhaps have taken parts of Moscow. Then what? Don't see any benefits for the soldiers here and an amnesty is likely to work find for the rank and file. Leaders will have an interesting life... | ||
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FueledUpAndReadyToGo
Netherlands30548 Posts
Seems like they lost on all fronts besides Prigozhin saving his own head. What a weird and confusing end to the day. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22705 Posts
On June 25 2023 05:15 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote: Yeah no Prig merely postponed his death. He would be lucky to make it to the end of the year without drinking a bit to much plutonium tea.Prigozhin exiled to Belarus and some of Wagner troops signing contracts of the ministry of defense, no confirmation of Shoigu/Gerasimov changes. Seems like they lost on all fronts besides Prigozhin saving his own head. What a weird and confusing end to the day. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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maybenexttime
Poland5914 Posts
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[sc1f]eonzerg
Belgium7221 Posts
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Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
Does this mean Prigozhin will be safe? Maybe, maybe not. | ||
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Dan HH
Romania9256 Posts
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