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On May 23 2023 01:08 [Phantom] wrote: What does "Volunteer" means here? Basically a terrosits in favor of Ukraine atacking the Russia city from within?
Technically, these are russian volunteers in favor of Russia without Putin. Not unlike russian-propped separatists in Donbass in 2014. The only difference is this isn't meant to become a permanent conflict zone, this is to confuse and stretch the enemy before the offensive. If they use Russian territory to flank russians in Ukraine, it would be absolutely amazing.
There were materially no separatists in 2014. The Russian army has subsequently admitted it was literally just Russian troops, exactly as Ukraine asserted for years.
Incidentally this was straight out of Hitler’s playbook. The SS were sent into the Sudetenland, Danzig, Klaipeda and so forth to create German unrest. If the government fought back Hitler claimed persecution and Hitler would announce intervention to protect the Germans. If they didn’t then the SS would stage a totally organic separatism uprising and Hitler would move in to protect the Germans.
By doing it in this way they maintained diplomatic deniability. Everyone knew they were lying but it was considered uncouth to call them liars publicly and so it stayed in the grey zone of “who can really say what is happening” that Ukraine famously enjoyed for the last few years.
On May 23 2023 00:23 Gorsameth wrote: Why would Ukraine be against Russian partisans drawing attention away from an already stretched Russian army while having full deniability?
Because there is no deniability if it occurs from Ukrainian territory and it threatens international support for Ukraine.
I fail to see why this would threaten international support of Ukraine. This is not the Ukrainian army invading Russia and driving towards Moscow.
Absolutely. Why does Ukraine have to play in the sandlot that Russia prefers? Did Russia attack strictly in Donbass when they invaded Ukraine? Do they not attack targets all over Ukraine? This take is nonsensical.
Because public opinion. Some don't grasp the idea that a defensive war still includes striking back on foreign territory. There is the constant fear of "escalations", possibly some weird ideas that they actually intend to capture russian territory, all which can damage public support for aid.
There have been rumours right from the beginning that there was an agreement between ukraine and the US that US weapons would not be used to strike into russian territory, and we have seen ukraine denying attacks on russian soil since the start of the war, probably because of not wanting to risk feeding the paranoia of the people afraid of escalation.
If I recall correctly, there has been a ukrainian helicopter attack on a russian fuel depot near the border last year, which ukraine responded to by playing dumb.
It could also help not increasing support for the war within russia, though I doubt that that is any motivation since ukraine not claiming responsibility won't really do much against russian state media.
On May 23 2023 02:06 JimmiC wrote: I wonder how, if at all this affects, Russian war popularity in Russia. Are they going to rally around the military because now they are at risk, or will they be scared and mad that now people in Russia are at risk.
The way I see it is the popularity of this war has been declining in Russia. I get the impression many of them started to think they are completely outmatched. All the gore videos online don't help that motivation. It is curious that female population supports the war more than males, although somewhat anecdotally. Of course they don't have to be involved, plus they get a nice package once their husbands die. Maybe an actual russian could chime in.
On May 23 2023 02:06 JimmiC wrote: I wonder how, if at all this affects, Russian war popularity in Russia. Are they going to rally around the military because now they are at risk, or will they be scared and mad that now people in Russia are at risk.
The way I see it is the popularity of this war has been declining in Russia. I get the impression many of them started to think they are completely outmatched. All the gore videos online don't help that motivation. It is curious that female population supports the war more than males, although somewhat anecdotally. Of course they don't have to be involved, plus they get a nice package once their husbands die. Maybe an actual russian could chime in.
With all due respect, I think you have to be pretty cooked to think that the thought of your husband dying to maybe get some payment is a strong motivator to support the war. Not sure if we are entering racist territory here or if this is just some peak misogyny. I know that compassion for russians has not been this threads strong suit, but it really isn't hard to find evidence of russian women absolutely not being happy about their husbands dying.
I did not get the impression that support for the war in Russia has decreased significantly. Lots of Russians who were against the attack at the start of the war got used to the situation and now they're closer to something like "I have no influence on what's going on but it would be better if our guys won". I agree that the number of Russians who would support a cease fire instead of continued combat has probably increased, but those people are still supporting a solution that would let Russia keep the occupied territories.
I also never saw a Russian saying anything close to "things that happened made me realize we're completely outmatched".
On May 23 2023 02:06 JimmiC wrote: I wonder how, if at all this affects, Russian war popularity in Russia. Are they going to rally around the military because now they are at risk, or will they be scared and mad that now people in Russia are at risk.
The way I see it is the popularity of this war has been declining in Russia. I get the impression many of them started to think they are completely outmatched. All the gore videos online don't help that motivation. It is curious that female population supports the war more than males, although somewhat anecdotally. Of course they don't have to be involved, plus they get a nice package once their husbands die. Maybe an actual russian could chime in.
With all due respect, I think you have to be pretty cooked to think that the thought of your husband dying to maybe get some payment is a strong motivator to support the war. Not sure if we are entering racist territory here or if this is just some peak misogyny. I know that compassion for russians has not been this threads strong suit, but it really isn't hard to find evidence of russian women absolutely not being happy about their husbands dying.
Didn't they run a literal TV ad with just this message? How the family received a vehicle after their son was killed? It does sound wild but it doesn't surprise me one bit.
On May 23 2023 02:28 Sent. wrote: I did not get the impression that support for the war in Russia has decreased significantly. Lots of Russians who were against the attack at the start of the war got used to the situation and now they're closer to something like "I have no influence on what's going on but it would be better if our guys won". I agree that the number of Russians who would support a cease fire instead of continued combat has probably increased, but those people are still supporting a solution that would let Russia keep the occupied territories.
I also never saw a Russian saying anything close to "things that happened made me realize we're completely outmatched".
I think given the news reporting and lack of progress the fear started to creep in. At the minimum they will be thinking that if you go there you are likely to die, and that's not very motivational. In the beginning this was thought of as a quick safari and the way to make some money, but more and more people have their relatives and neighbors killed, and the reality sets in eventually.
On May 23 2023 02:06 JimmiC wrote: I wonder how, if at all this affects, Russian war popularity in Russia. Are they going to rally around the military because now they are at risk, or will they be scared and mad that now people in Russia are at risk.
The way I see it is the popularity of this war has been declining in Russia. I get the impression many of them started to think they are completely outmatched. All the gore videos online don't help that motivation. It is curious that female population supports the war more than males, although somewhat anecdotally. Of course they don't have to be involved, plus they get a nice package once their husbands die. Maybe an actual russian could chime in.
With all due respect, I think you have to be pretty cooked to think that the thought of your husband dying to maybe get some payment is a strong motivator to support the war. Not sure if we are entering racist territory here or if this is just some peak misogyny. I know that compassion for russians has not been this threads strong suit, but it really isn't hard to find evidence of russian women absolutely not being happy about their husbands dying.
Didn't they run a literal TV ad with just this message? How the family received a vehicle after their son was killed? It does sound wild but it doesn't surprise me one bit.
Well, even if so, don't mix up state propaganda with the actual views of Russians.
On May 23 2023 01:08 [Phantom] wrote: What does "Volunteer" means here? Basically a terrosits in favor of Ukraine atacking the Russia city from within?
It's not 100% known, but unfounded rumours says they might be made from a bunch of the same protestors from February last year. It's also not known if Ukraine has anything to do with it (My opinion is: likely, at least in form of intelligence. Perhaps also timing wise), but you can be pretty safe they'll deny it to their graves
On May 23 2023 02:06 JimmiC wrote: I wonder how, if at all this affects, Russian war popularity in Russia. Are they going to rally around the military because now they are at risk, or will they be scared and mad that now people in Russia are at risk.
I'm not a psychology expert by any means, but I think if a bunch of "freedom fighters" showed up in my home town and started blasting, it wouldn't make me favour their cause. But then again, my beliefs are pretty rooted in favour of my home country and region. If I was on the fence, especially tipping towards anti-, maybe seeing people pick up arms could tip me towards action rather than passiveness. Someone needs to be that first seed
On May 23 2023 01:08 [Phantom] wrote: What does "Volunteer" means here? Basically a terrosits in favor of Ukraine atacking the Russia city from within?
Technically, these are russian volunteers in favor of Russia without Putin. Not unlike russian-propped separatists in Donbass in 2014. The only difference is this isn't meant to become a permanent conflict zone, this is to confuse and stretch the enemy before the offensive. If they use Russian territory to flank russians in Ukraine, it would be absolutely amazing.
There were materially no separatists in 2014. The Russian army has subsequently admitted it was literally just Russian troops, exactly as Ukraine asserted for years.
I'm sorry but this is the most off-the-wall, pants-on-head take I've seen in years. Plausibly, you can claim that at some point the Russian state sent aid like military instructors, missiles, spare parts, before the August offensive in 2014 though how much and to what extent is still up for debate. All actors at the beginning basically shat on Moscow for not coming to their aid and leaving them to fight the 'new government' in Kiev with whatever they could scavenge from the military bases in the area, while Moscow only cared about their precious Crimea.
The Ukrainian police, firefighters and army personal in the region openly refusing orders from Kiev, standing on the side of the protesters/people and forming their own parallel institutions were actually Russian troops born, raised and working in those areas for decades? This is what you are saying? You are claiming unironically that the entire anti-Maidan uprising was just Russian MoD personal? No locals, not one of the 45,000 troops the Donbass Republics had at the beginning of February 2022 was ever involved in 2014 or none of them were locals to the area or Ukraine as a whole? Not one Ukrainian passport?
Like, I get the revisionism and propaganda stuffing since 2022. But there should be some limit when you want to write a QAnon tier conspiracy theory and your mind tells you 'wait, what the fuck did I just write?' This is genuinely less realistic than the posters on here that claimed that more civilians died in Mariupol than in Hiroshima and Nagasaki combined. Is this actually being pushed as even remotely passable anywhere? You have to be extremally detached from any information from the area before 2022 and even then it sounds crazy.
Read a comment about Artemovsk yesterday, something about 50 Ukrainian helicopters being shot down. I mean sure, quite a few were shot down, but 50? Thats like double the helicopters Ukraine had before the war. Again, not as off the wall as your comment but if you want to stuff propaganda down everybody's throat, at least put in minimal effort when you know its not just the peanut gallery reading.
On May 23 2023 02:06 JimmiC wrote: I wonder how, if at all this affects, Russian war popularity in Russia. Are they going to rally around the military because now they are at risk, or will they be scared and mad that now people in Russia are at risk.
The way I see it is the popularity of this war has been declining in Russia. I get the impression many of them started to think they are completely outmatched. All the gore videos online don't help that motivation. It is curious that female population supports the war more than males, although somewhat anecdotally. Of course they don't have to be involved, plus they get a nice package once their husbands die. Maybe an actual russian could chime in.
With all due respect, I think you have to be pretty cooked to think that the thought of your husband dying to maybe get some payment is a strong motivator to support the war. Not sure if we are entering racist territory here or if this is just some peak misogyny. I know that compassion for russians has not been this threads strong suit, but it really isn't hard to find evidence of russian women absolutely not being happy about their husbands dying.
It might seem completely alien in the West but I wouldn't put it past impoverished people. If you have the option of barely scraping it off of welfare with your jobless abusive drunkard husband (who you married because of a one night stand child during some village festivities) or having him gone from your life and an influx of cash I think plenty of those women would actually take the latter.
I mean, even in Poland in one of the villages we had a woman who killed 5 of her own children (drowned them, then put them into the freezer and later moved them into a barrel) because she was afraid of her abusive husband (she was sentenced to 25 years in prison, husband got 8 years). And this family wasn't too bad off, lived good actually. But if you go to the countryside and listen to the stories of people in poor areas or what happens in those uneducated low income families in villages and even in cities it can be quite mind-boggling.
Edit: Just remembered that recently a friend of a friend was posting her experiences growing up in a small rural town in Poland. She was recalling how she lost her virginity at age of 14. Walking home late at night, right beside her house's fence her drunk neighbor came up on her and took her. She told him that he took her virginity so he should give her something for it, he got some spare change he got in his pocket and gave it to her after which they both went home. To you and me that's an adult raping a minor, a truly despicable crime. To them it's Tuesday.
I would assume that outside of cities in rural Russia it's even worse than that.
On May 23 2023 01:08 [Phantom] wrote: What does "Volunteer" means here? Basically a terrosits in favor of Ukraine atacking the Russia city from within?
Technically, these are russian volunteers in favor of Russia without Putin. Not unlike russian-propped separatists in Donbass in 2014. The only difference is this isn't meant to become a permanent conflict zone, this is to confuse and stretch the enemy before the offensive. If they use Russian territory to flank russians in Ukraine, it would be absolutely amazing.
There were materially no separatists in 2014. The Russian army has subsequently admitted it was literally just Russian troops, exactly as Ukraine asserted for years.
I'm sorry but this is the most off-the-wall, pants-on-head take I've seen in years. Plausibly, you can claim that at some point the Russian state sent aid like military instructors, missiles, spare parts, before the August offensive in 2014 though how much and to what extent is still up for debate. All actors at the beginning basically shat on Moscow for not coming to their aid and leaving them to fight the 'new government' in Kiev with whatever they could scavenge from the military bases in the area, while Moscow only cared about their precious Crimea.
The Ukrainian police, firefighters and army personal in the region openly refusing orders from Kiev, standing on the side of the protesters/people and forming their own parallel institutions were actually Russian troops born, raised and working in those areas for decades? This is what you are saying? You are claiming unironically that the entire anti-Maidan uprising was just Russian MoD personal? No locals, not one of the 45,000 troops the Donbass Republics had at the beginning of February 2022 was ever involved in 2014 or none of them were locals to the area or Ukraine as a whole? Not one Ukrainian passport?
Like, I get the revisionism and propaganda stuffing since 2022. But there should be some limit when you want to write a QAnon tier conspiracy theory and your mind tells you 'wait, what the fuck did I just write?' This is genuinely less realistic than the posters on here that claimed that more civilians died in Mariupol than in Hiroshima and Nagasaki combined. Is this actually being pushed as even remotely passable anywhere? You have to be extremally detached from any information from the area before 2022 and even then it sounds crazy.
Read a comment about Artemovsk yesterday, something about 50 Ukrainian helicopters being shot down. I mean sure, quite a few were shot down, but 50? Thats like double the helicopters Ukraine had before the war. Again, not as off the wall as your comment but if you want to stuff propaganda down everybody's throat, at least put in minimal effort when you know its not just the peanut gallery reading.
Ten Russian soldiers captured in eastern Ukraine crossed the border "by accident", Russian military sources are quoted as saying.
Ukraine's security service said its military had captured the 10 Russian paratroopers near the village of Dzerkalne, about 50km (30 miles) south-east of the rebel-held city of Donetsk and about 20km from the Russian border. Ukrainian military spokesman Andriy Lysenko said: "This wasn't a mistake, but a special mission they were carrying out." A Ukrainian television report that carried the interviews with the men said they were from the 331st regiment of the 98th Svirsk airborne division.
On May 23 2023 01:08 [Phantom] wrote: What does "Volunteer" means here? Basically a terrosits in favor of Ukraine atacking the Russia city from within?
Technically, these are russian volunteers in favor of Russia without Putin. Not unlike russian-propped separatists in Donbass in 2014. The only difference is this isn't meant to become a permanent conflict zone, this is to confuse and stretch the enemy before the offensive. If they use Russian territory to flank russians in Ukraine, it would be absolutely amazing.
There were materially no separatists in 2014. The Russian army has subsequently admitted it was literally just Russian troops, exactly as Ukraine asserted for years.
I'm sorry but this is the most off-the-wall, pants-on-head take I've seen in years. Plausibly, you can claim that at some point the Russian state sent aid like military instructors, missiles, spare parts, before the August offensive in 2014 though how much and to what extent is still up for debate. All actors at the beginning basically shat on Moscow for not coming to their aid and leaving them to fight the 'new government' in Kiev with whatever they could scavenge from the military bases in the area, while Moscow only cared about their precious Crimea.
The Ukrainian police, firefighters and army personal in the region openly refusing orders from Kiev, standing on the side of the protesters/people and forming their own parallel institutions were actually Russian troops born, raised and working in those areas for decades? This is what you are saying? You are claiming unironically that the entire anti-Maidan uprising was just Russian MoD personal? No locals, not one of the 45,000 troops the Donbass Republics had at the beginning of February 2022 was ever involved in 2014 or none of them were locals to the area or Ukraine as a whole? Not one Ukrainian passport?
Like, I get the revisionism and propaganda stuffing since 2022. But there should be some limit when you want to write a QAnon tier conspiracy theory and your mind tells you 'wait, what the fuck did I just write?' This is genuinely less realistic than the posters on here that claimed that more civilians died in Mariupol than in Hiroshima and Nagasaki combined. Is this actually being pushed as even remotely passable anywhere? You have to be extremally detached from any information from the area before 2022 and even then it sounds crazy.
Read a comment about Artemovsk yesterday, something about 50 Ukrainian helicopters being shot down. I mean sure, quite a few were shot down, but 50? Thats like double the helicopters Ukraine had before the war. Again, not as off the wall as your comment but if you want to stuff propaganda down everybody's throat, at least put in minimal effort when you know its not just the peanut gallery reading.
EDIT: On second thought its satire right?
And if someone wonders if Putin's incredibly obvious lie about little green men totally-not-his-troops actually fooled anyone: Here's your answer. It doesn't need to be believable as long as you want to believe it, literal mountains of evidence against it be damned
Unsurprisingly, zeo is confusing anti-Maidan protests with support for secession from Ukraine. The separatists in Kharkiv were such locals that they mistakenly took over a theatre, thinking it was the local town hall. ;-)
The evidence against the little green men now includes the Russian government dropping the cover story and admitting that it was them all along. Zeo is the last one to realize the obvious.
On May 23 2023 01:08 [Phantom] wrote: What does "Volunteer" means here? Basically a terrosits in favor of Ukraine atacking the Russia city from within?
Technically, these are russian volunteers in favor of Russia without Putin. Not unlike russian-propped separatists in Donbass in 2014. The only difference is this isn't meant to become a permanent conflict zone, this is to confuse and stretch the enemy before the offensive. If they use Russian territory to flank russians in Ukraine, it would be absolutely amazing.
There were materially no separatists in 2014. The Russian army has subsequently admitted it was literally just Russian troops, exactly as Ukraine asserted for years.
I'm sorry but this is the most off-the-wall, pants-on-head take I've seen in years. Plausibly, you can claim that at some point the Russian state sent aid like military instructors, missiles, spare parts, before the August offensive in 2014 though how much and to what extent is still up for debate. All actors at the beginning basically shat on Moscow for not coming to their aid and leaving them to fight the 'new government' in Kiev with whatever they could scavenge from the military bases in the area, while Moscow only cared about their precious Crimea.
The Ukrainian police, firefighters and army personal in the region openly refusing orders from Kiev, standing on the side of the protesters/people and forming their own parallel institutions were actually Russian troops born, raised and working in those areas for decades? This is what you are saying? You are claiming unironically that the entire anti-Maidan uprising was just Russian MoD personal? No locals, not one of the 45,000 troops the Donbass Republics had at the beginning of February 2022 was ever involved in 2014 or none of them were locals to the area or Ukraine as a whole? Not one Ukrainian passport?
Like, I get the revisionism and propaganda stuffing since 2022. But there should be some limit when you want to write a QAnon tier conspiracy theory and your mind tells you 'wait, what the fuck did I just write?' This is genuinely less realistic than the posters on here that claimed that more civilians died in Mariupol than in Hiroshima and Nagasaki combined. Is this actually being pushed as even remotely passable anywhere? You have to be extremally detached from any information from the area before 2022 and even then it sounds crazy.
Read a comment about Artemovsk yesterday, something about 50 Ukrainian helicopters being shot down. I mean sure, quite a few were shot down, but 50? Thats like double the helicopters Ukraine had before the war. Again, not as off the wall as your comment but if you want to stuff propaganda down everybody's throat, at least put in minimal effort when you know its not just the peanut gallery reading.
EDIT: On second thought its satire right?
It was Russian troops.
Which one of those would be Donetsk' "Berkut" or "Alpha" units? Or elements of Ukrainian 25th Airborne brigade? Or where did people such as Aleksandr Khodakovsky, Artyom Zhoga, Vladimir Zhoga, Aleksandr Zakharchenko, Olga Kachura, Aleksandr Dikiy, Mikhail Tolstyh (aka "Givi"), Pavel Dremov, Aleksandr Bednov, Aleksey Mozgovoi, Pavel Gubarev were born and lived, and which citizenship they had? Of renowned field commanders of Donbass War only Igor Girkin (aka Strelkov), Arsen Pavlov (aka Motorola) and Nikolay Kozitsyn were completely Russian, and Igor' Bezler and Aleksandr Timofeev lived in Ukraine during USSR times, and for some times after its collapse lived in Russia, but they returned to Ukraine in late 90s. Every other person in the list was born in Ukraine, lived in Ukraine, and (for those with prior military experience) served in the army of Ukraine.
Russian troops of course saved LDPR during Ukraine's August 2014 offensive. And of course supplied separatists with weapons (but certainly not in astronomic quantities) as well as allowed for the flow of volunteers. But basically any regular participant in the LDPR militia circa 2014 would say that they felt abandoned and betrayed by the Russian government for not supporting them and basicaly giving them on a plate to Ukrainians with Minsk agreements. Good thing that their accounts from that time are available now since there were a lot of bloggers among them.
EPT
