Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 356

Pressure on Scholz intensified after Britain announced last weekend that it would send its own Challenger 2 battle tanks to Ukraine. U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace is convening a meeting with Eastern European and Baltic defense ministers in Estonia on Thursday to further raise the pressure on Berlin.

The French are also considering sending their own Leclerc tanks to Ukraine in a bid to provide Berlin with a joint framework for tank shipments.

“The subject is complicated and hasn’t been settled yet in Paris. But we are thinking about it,” a French official told POLITICO, before nodding to an upcoming meeting on Sunday. “We’ll see what gets decided at the joint French-German Cabinet meeting.”

Western officials fear Ukraine has little time left before Russia launches a new, broader offensive against Ukraine, possibly necessitating late-in-the-game tank shipments to bolster Kyiv’s defenses.

“For months now, Scholz has warned against going it alone with regards to arms deliveries to Ukraine,” said Katja Leikert, a German lawmaker on the foreign affairs committee from the center-right Christian Democratic Union, the country’s main opposition party. “But now he is doing exactly that: His hesitancy to let European allies deliver Leopard 2 tanks to Kyiv is a dangerous solo action.”

She told POLITICO: “Germany should take a leading role in a European coalition of states delivering Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine.”

On January 19 2023 23:54 Artesimo wrote:
The polish statement is some strong man posturing for internal politics I think since poland has not made an official request as of yet.

On January 20 2023 01:39 Ardias wrote:
List of weaponry announced from the 1st January so far

🇬🇧 14 Challenger 2 tanks
🇬🇧 600 Brimstone missiles
🇬🇧 30 155-mm AS90 SPG
🇬🇧 200 IFV/APC
🇨🇦 200 Senator APC
🇨🇦 1 NASAMS air defense battery
🇵🇱 14 Leopard 2 (mot likely A4) tanks
🇺🇸 100 Bradley IFV;
🇺🇸 100 M113 APC;
🇺🇸 18 155-mm M109А6 SPG
🇺🇸 250 M1117 APC
🇺🇸 138 HMMWV;
🇺🇸 100 Stryker APC
🇺🇸 GLSDB bombs
🇺🇸 36 105-mm howitzers
🇺🇸 1 Patriot air defense battery
🇺🇸 6 NASAMS air defense batteries
🇺🇸 18 HIMARS;
🇫🇷 40 AMX-10RC light tanks;
🇫🇷 Bastion APC (probably 20)
🇮🇹 🇫🇷 1 SAMP/T air defense battery
🇩🇰 🇫🇷 19 155-mm CAESAR SPG
🇩🇪 40 Marder IFV
🇩🇪 1 Patriot air defense battery
🇩🇪 3 Iris-T air defense batteries + 3 TRML-4D radars
🇩🇪 2 TRML-4D radar
🇩🇪 🇳🇴 🇩🇰 16 155-mm Zuzana-2 SPG
🇳🇱 🇺🇸 🇨🇿 120 T-72М tanks
🇳🇱 1 Patriot air defense battery
🇸🇪 50 CV-90 IFV
🇸🇪 12 155-mm Archer SPG
🇨🇿 26-30 152-mm Dana-M2 SPG
🇪🇪 10 155-mm FH70 howitzers
🇪🇪 10 122-mm D-30 howitzers

Overall - 184 tanks, 180 artillery systems, 18 MLRS, 190 IFVs, ~1000 APC/MRAP/Armored cars, 14 air defence missile batteries. Bear in mind, some of this stuff is to be delivered over time (like Chezh T-72s, which are repaired with a pace of 5-6 a motnh)

In comparison during 2022 (I'm not counting long term contracts), Ukraine recieved around 350 tanks (320 T-72, 28 M-55 (T-55)), 280 IFV (BMP-1), 450+ artillery systems, around 50 BM-21 MLRS, 40 M270 MLRS/M142 HIMARS, 2000+ APC/MRAP/Armored cars, 30+ anti-air self-propelled guns, 3 air defense missile batterlies. Plus hundreds of logistics and support vehicles.

On January 20 2023 02:19 Acrofales wrote:


So halfway through january we're at about half the concessions of what Ukraine received in all of 2022, and you make it sound as if support is drying up. I don't see it.

On January 20 2023 02:19 Acrofales wrote:


So halfway through january we're at about half the concessions of what Ukraine received in all of 2022, and you make it sound as if support is drying up. I don't see it.

On January 20 2023 02:28 Lmui wrote:


I like the summary though.
There's also the other part to consider that the tanks/IFVs/APCs are generally more capable than the equipment Ukraine received in 2022. Soviet equipment was good for the 80s, but they're getting newer equipment from the 2000s+.

We've seen that quality matches quantity for artillery with HIMARS, we'll see what higher tech in other areas gives.
Last year was giving stuff that can be used immediately, this year is stuff which has significant offensive capability, not just defensive

On January 20 2023 06:23 mahrgell wrote:
What kind of issue is this addressing? Next, someone declares they would also sponsor the painting of those tanks?

Who do they want to pay for those tanks? Is there any party able to provide Leopards, but said they are waiting for someone to pay for them?

Hint: German law forbids arms manufacturers to produce for storage. There is no continuous pipeline of tanks produced like in the US, where you just have to bid some money to get your share either from their parking lot or the production line.
There are no stored tanks, except the few scraps (about 80 Leo1, 20 Leo2 iirc) bought back by Rheinmetall, for which according to Rheinmetall delivery could start earliest next year, if their repair was ordered now. If you order newly manufactured ones, you wait even longer, even when skipping the queue.
Or we are talking about buying from countries, but then again... for whom exactly is this a money issue?

On January 20 2023 06:34 Artesimo wrote:


Democracies still have to budget things and can't just hand off equipment. But maybe this makes things easier. If the netherlands already have decided on a fund for ukraine, they then might be able to use that money to pay for the delivery of a tank by another country, without that country having to jump through the budgeting loops of getting a tank into ukraine. Or their military is in the same spot as ours, they are not willing to compromise their tank force, so they do the next best thing of offering to pay for tanks.

On January 20 2023 06:34 Artesimo wrote:


Democracies still have to budget things and can't just hand off equipment. But maybe this makes things easier. If the netherlands already have decided on a fund for ukraine, they then might be able to use that money to pay for the delivery of a tank by another country, without that country having to jump through the budgeting loops of getting a tank into ukraine. Or their military is in the same spot as ours, they are not willing to compromise their tank force, so they do the next best thing of offering to pay for tanks.

On January 20 2023 06:43 plasmidghost wrote:
I've been seeing reports of Russian mobiks training for months or however long the military gave them on artillery, only to now be sent to infantry units. Does anyone know if this is a sign that either the Russian military is running out of people or running out of artillery ammo?

Systemic failures in Russia’s force generation apparatus continue to plague personnel capabilities to the detriment of Russian operational capacity in Ukraine. Russian milbloggers claimed on January 3 that the Russian military has sent recently mobilized personnel trained as artillerymen and tankers following their mobilizations to infantry divisions in Ukraine with no formal infantry training.[8] Although the use of personnel in non-infantry branches in infantry roles is not unusual, the Russian military’s practice in this case is likely very problematic. The Russian Armed Forces devoted too little time to training mobilized personnel for use in the branches they had previously served in before sending them to the front lines. They certainly did not have time to train them in additional specialties.

Russian forces have suffered significant losses of artillery systems and armored vehicles in operations in Ukraine since the start of partial mobilization in September of 2022, and, therefore, likely have excess personnel trained in the use of specific military equipment.[9] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhii Cherevaty reported that Russian forces in eastern Ukraine are currently firing artillery shells at roughly one-third the rate of the summer of 2022.[10] The reduced rate of Russian artillery fire is likely a result of the depletion of ammunition stocks, given reports that Russian forces are deliberately transferring ammunition from one sector of the front to another.[11] Putting poorly-trained artillerymen into infantry units without training them for infantry combat operations will likely make them little more than cannon fodder.

Degraded Russian military personnel capabilities will likely further exacerbate Russian milblogger criticism of Russian force generation efforts and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD). One Russian milblogger argued that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s proposals to create five new artillery divisions and the recent creation of an artillery division in the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) 2nd Army Corps will be a waste of personnel and artillery munitions if the Russian MoD continues to train these personnel in just an artillery capacity without infantry training.[12] Another Russian milblogger argued inaccurately that putting a tanker or an artilleryman in service as a simple infantryman is a war crime that even Soviet commanders did not commit in the most difficult months of the Second World War in 1941.[13] (It certainly is not any sort of crime to allocate individuals with certain specialties to perform different roles and missions in war, and tankers and gunners in all armies at war have sometimes fought as infantry when their systems were destroyed or unavailable.) The Russian milblogger compared the current situation to a similar incident in 2015 when the Russian deployment of an artillery unit as infantry in the operation to capture Debaltseve, Donetsk Oblast, led to the death of 80 percent of the unit to argue that Russian commanders who make such decisions should face criminal prosecution.[14] Russian milbloggers have routinely criticized the Russian MoD for the poor conduct of partial mobilization and will likely continue to do so as Russian force generation efforts produce degraded personnel capabilities that will likely further constrain the Russian military’s ability to achieve any operational success in Ukraine. The hyperbole of milblogger criticism of the MoD’s personnel practices highlights the ever-increasing hostility toward and skepticism of the MoD among elements of the milblogger community.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-3-2023

On January 20 2023 06:43 plasmidghost wrote:
I've been seeing reports of Russian mobiks training for months or however long the military gave them on artillery, only to now be sent to infantry units. Does anyone know if this is a sign that either the Russian military is running out of people or running out of artillery ammo?

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1616186360053829665