EPTRusso-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 297
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Taelshin
Canada418 Posts
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Artesimo
Germany546 Posts
On October 28 2022 00:38 Taelshin wrote: The real question is how can Ukraine use the cold to their advantage though. Russians obviously are not prepared for a winter war. It is very unlikely that autumn/winter weather won't favour the tactical defender(russia in this case as ukraine has gaines the initiative for now). There might be certain exploits that ukraine can gain from it, but overall its helps defensive operations. A very mild winter would be the best for ukraine so it doesn't help russia too much in buying time. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Sent.
Poland9198 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/TZcaTpW.png) | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
On October 28 2022 01:37 Artesimo wrote: It is very unlikely that autumn/winter weather won't favour the tactical defender(russia in this case as ukraine has gaines the initiative for now). There might be certain exploits that ukraine can gain from it, but overall its helps defensive operations. A very mild winter would be the best for ukraine so it doesn't help russia too much in buying time. But what about a defender that is even less supplied than at the start of the year when they were on the offensive? | ||
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Sermokala
United States13955 Posts
And all the nations that are anxious to send heavy weapons or weapons at all to Ukraine can flood the area with cold weather uniforms made by their people. The tech base needed to make gloves hats and coats is a lot lower and can be made with materials that their own people make. Easiest stimulus program for farmers and fabric industries you'll see. How good do you think those hundreds of thousands of conscripts are going to be living this winter? | ||
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Artesimo
Germany546 Posts
On October 28 2022 02:11 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: But what about a defender that is even less supplied than at the start of the year when they were on the offensive? For one, people seem to forget that quite a number of russian troops come from colder regions as well. They surely won't lack winter equipment. Especially the mobilised people from warmer regions of russia will suffer, but not all russian troops and not all of them equally. But all that does not change that much. One reason why winter and to an extend autumn favours defensive operation is because it makes expanding supply lines harder and restricts movement, both things that are crucial for offensive operations. While it does hinder offensive operations, it strengthens the defender at the same time, as it becomes much easier to concentrate your defence against the more limited avenues of attack. Operational tempo also tends to decrease which makes more vulnerable to artillery - something russia still has the upper hand on in the larger picture. The same problems apply to defenders, but much less so as they are less impacted by it. Supply routes are already set up, you don't need as much mobility when the attacker is limited in their movement etc. All this makes ukrainian operations harder during winter and autumn, unless they get lucky with the weather. This also means russia will be able to buy some time to train their mobilised forces and address more of their current shortcomings. While time might not be on russias side in the long run, at the moment they definitely do want to buy time so mobilisation can actually kick in. All this does not mean ukraine can't have successes in the autumn/winter, but pretending autumn/winter will be good for ukraine is a couple of steps too far in my opinion and mostly fuelled by wishful thinking. While I think that further slowing down their momentum is pretty bad for ukraine right now, all the defenders advantages also mean their positions are also much less at risk from russian attacks. They will probably make use of this by rotating troops around, replenishing them, and increased training for the next offensive next year. | ||
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Sermokala
United States13955 Posts
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Neneu
Norway492 Posts
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Artesimo
Germany546 Posts
On October 28 2022 04:15 Sermokala wrote: Your confidence in Russian Equipment existing and the logistics required to supply their people in the field is misplaced. Expcially as they are in hostile territory and are under constant threat of their supply depots getting HIMARS'd within a days ride for a truck that is not being maintained well. Partisan operations as well as operations behind enemy lines also get much harder with autumn/winter weather. And by the ukrainain strikes on russian ammunition depots, you can clearly see they have adjusted for that already, store their ammunition more dispersed. They don't have the impact they had when HIMARS got introduced, because that is what happens in war. Lessons are being learned and forces adapt. Same with ukraine, the initial attacks of shahed drones were pretty devastating, by now ukraine has adapted and manage to consistently shoot down large numbers of them. People need to stop pretending russia has not learned any lessons from this war, their logistical fuckups from the early months are still how they operate etc. I don't need to have much confidence in anything of russia, I can just go by the things that are observable and established facts about winter warfare. Once again, this does not mean ukraine can't have successes during autumn/winter, especially if the weather plays nice. It just means that ukraine will have to make some though decisions if they want to invest more resources to keep up some of their momentum, or if they rather save it for next year and potentially let russia get a better footing. In any case, hostilities won't die down, but I expect them to decrease because of the mentioned reasons, unless ukraine determines that they can't give russia a pause. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
On October 28 2022 04:37 Artesimo wrote: Partisan operations as well as operations behind enemy lines also get much harder with autumn/winter weather. And by the ukrainain strikes on russian ammunition depots, you can clearly see they have adjusted for that already, store their ammunition more dispersed. They don't have the impact they had when HIMARS got introduced, because that is what happens in war. Lessons are being learned and forces adapt. Same with ukraine, the initial attacks of shahed drones were pretty devastating, by now ukraine has adapted and manage to consistently shoot down large numbers of them. People need to stop pretending russia has not learned any lessons from this war, their logistical fuckups from the early months are still how they operate etc. I don't need to have much confidence in anything of russia, I can just go by the things that are observable and established facts about winter warfare. Once again, this does not mean ukraine can't have successes during autumn/winter, especially if the weather plays nice. It just means that ukraine will have to make some though decisions if they want to invest more resources to keep up some of their momentum, or if they rather save it for next year and potentially let russia get a better footing. In any case, hostilities won't die down, but I expect them to decrease because of the mentioned reasons, unless ukraine determines that they can't give russia a pause. There is learning from strategic mistakes, and then not being able to adjust due to corruption behind the lines. The question is the latter still prevalent. Case in point the missing 1.2 million Russian winter uniforms that just vanished without anybody knowing about it. | ||
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Artesimo
Germany546 Posts
On October 28 2022 04:46 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: There is learning from strategic mistakes, and then not being able to adjust due to corruption behind the lines. The question is the latter still prevalent. Case in point the missing 1.2 million Russian winter uniforms that just vanished without anybody knowing about it. I don't think we have seen a good example of being unable to adjust due to corruption, while we have seen plenty of examples of russia adapting and learning from their mistakes. This is where I once again point to wishful thinking. Is it a chance? Sure, but I also think its not much of an argument against something that is based in observable facts and established wisdom. Not to mention that those winter uniforms missing when nobody expects them to be used is very different from winter uniforms that you know will be used vanishing. There isn't some magical force in russia that makes them disappear, as far as I am concerned, they disappeared/never existed because the people responsible expected that nobody would miss them. Corruption works when you don't expect to get caught, and it can't operate at the same scale once attention is raised. It will hurt their efforts, but I don't think you can expect it to paralyse the russian military. Not to mention that the thing that seems to be everyones new favourite topic, winter equipment, is also a lot more relevant when you are not in an established position. Once you are in a more permanent location, like when on the defence, facing an enemy whos movement is a lot more limited, you can, once again, adapt to a lot and lessen the effects. Am I saying that it won't be an issue? Of course not, but we also won't see the russian army collectively dying to the cold... And none of this addresses the all the limitation and hardships it puts on the offensive side, terrain becoming much harder to traverse, operational tempo slowing down, more predictable attacks, all this making surprise attacks much less likely and effective. And ofc the usual nuance that gets lost in most youtube vids and articles, not the entirety of russian army is ill equipped for the winter, and a lot of their struggles will just be taken out on the civilian population, just as we have seen before. No winter uniform? I am sure there will be a ukrainian with a warm coat or jacket around. Need shelter? Lock up a bunch of families in their cellar and stay in their house. A lot of the winter struggles apply more if russia wanted to conduct offensive operations themselves, and its clear from observations that that is not an option at the moment, even if the weather was playing nice. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Ardias
Russian Federation610 Posts
Plus there are a lot of advices in the Internet from people with experience (either LDPR militia, or AFRF soldiers wih combat experience in Ukraine) on what to gather, and what to not, so many people do have general idea at least. And there is a lot of public support for mobilized, friends and families are often helping with either money or clothes/equipment, so a lot of mobilized are well packed (not all, of course). Regarding "a million missing winter uniforms" - they simply didn't exist in reality, just on paper to launder money. It's not like that this 1+ million winter uniforms just popped out on civilian market. As for the increased strain on logistics - that's probably the main reason of Kherson evacuation, so AFRF would have less problem feeding and supplying 100+ thousand civilians still living in the right Dniepr bank during winter. Especially considering that IIRC even if Dniepr is freezing, the ice wouldn't be strong enough to make an winter ice crossing for vehicles, like we have here on North Dvina, for example. So they would still rely on the Antonov bridge, Kahovka dam and ferries. | ||
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Sermokala
United States13955 Posts
On October 28 2022 04:37 Artesimo wrote: Partisan operations as well as operations behind enemy lines also get much harder with autumn/winter weather. And by the ukrainain strikes on russian ammunition depots, you can clearly see they have adjusted for that already, store their ammunition more dispersed. They don't have the impact they had when HIMARS got introduced, because that is what happens in war. Lessons are being learned and forces adapt. Same with ukraine, the initial attacks of shahed drones were pretty devastating, by now ukraine has adapted and manage to consistently shoot down large numbers of them. People need to stop pretending russia has not learned any lessons from this war, their logistical fuckups from the early months are still how they operate etc. I don't need to have much confidence in anything of russia, I can just go by the things that are observable and established facts about winter warfare. Once again, this does not mean ukraine can't have successes during autumn/winter, especially if the weather plays nice. It just means that ukraine will have to make some though decisions if they want to invest more resources to keep up some of their momentum, or if they rather save it for next year and potentially let russia get a better footing. In any case, hostilities won't die down, but I expect them to decrease because of the mentioned reasons, unless ukraine determines that they can't give russia a pause. You don't solve things like not having palletized logistics in a year. You don't solve things like not having an NCO corps that keeps preventative maintenance going on their vehicles in a year. The Kerch bridge is going to be repaired in July, if it lasts that long. There is no rail line anymore that runs east-west in the south. They were struggling to equip and supply their current army in the field, they boast about T-62 modernization. They've mobilized at least enough troops to double the men they need to feed, equip, and keep warm just in time for winter. This is not the things that will solve their logistical fuckups. Winter will make everything worse. Trucks will burn more fuel, breakdown more, trains will breakdown more, the troops will need something to keep them warm other than firewood, that's even more things they need to transport. Partisan operations will be much harder, but they will be exponentially more rewarding. When the civilians are freezing to death and starving they won't have any other option then to die in their homes or fighting the ones who did this to them. Even if they've dispersed their supply dumps btw the CIA exists. Most of what they've always done is looking at photos from space. They'll still find the dumps and fire off all the GLRMS the US Military industrial complex can make. | ||
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Artesimo
Germany546 Posts
On October 28 2022 07:36 Sermokala wrote: You don't solve things like not having palletized logistics in a year. You don't solve things like not having an NCO corps that keeps preventative maintenance going on their vehicles in a year. The Kerch bridge is going to be repaired in July, if it lasts that long. There is no rail line anymore that runs east-west in the south. They were struggling to equip and supply their current army in the field, they boast about T-62 modernization. They've mobilized at least enough troops to double the men they need to feed, equip, and keep warm just in time for winter. This is not the things that will solve their logistical fuckups. Winter will make everything worse. Trucks will burn more fuel, breakdown more, trains will breakdown more, the troops will need something to keep them warm other than firewood, that's even more things they need to transport. Their logistical fuckups have already been addressed in large parts was my argument. They started to get their supply lines running, started treating them like convoys that go through hostile territory, set up hubs in the right places. Of course the supply situation is a dynamic situation that ukraine has a lot of impact on, but I get the impression that you are either stuck in an earlier phase of the war, or took the wrong conclusions from the beginning phase. I am not saying russia will suddenly come up with perfect logistics, or a western system. I am saying they have made it work and there is not much reason to assume they won't be able to continue make it work. Ukraine manages to disrupt it, but for the most part it is still running with maybe the exception of kherson, and that has been an ongoing and very concentrated effort for a few months now, that also heavily relied on the terrain (the dniepr). And sure, all you said about stuff breaking down is true, but the same is true for ukraine, which is why even if they wanted to keep the tempo up, it is reasonable to expect a decrease in intensity. And once again, winter and autumn generally favour the defender, meaning they will be able to accomplish less while having to expend more - a further factor mitigating russian problems and making large scale offensives unattractive and thus unlikely. Partisan operations will be much harder, but they will be exponentially more rewarding. When the civilians are freezing to death and starving they won't have any other option then to die in their homes or fighting the ones who did this to them. Maybe, not much to argue on here since its purely speculation. Attacking supply lines during winter does have more effect yes, how much it will happen, especially the partisan part, is very questionable in my opinion. But that is just as much speculation on my part. Hard to say how the spirit of the people and the filtration efforts match up against eachother. Even if they've dispersed their supply dumps btw the CIA exists. Most of what they've always done is looking at photos from space. They'll still find the dumps and fire off all the GLRMS the US Military industrial complex can make. The point was not about ukraine being unable to locate and destroy the smaller caches. Its about it no longer having nearly the same effect. It becomes mitigated in the same way that ukraine is mitigating the effectiveness of russian drone attacks. I feel like people are mentally stuck in the time when himars was fresh and every hit had a big impact on the battlefield. They still have an effect, but it has been massively decreased compared to what it once was. And even if, and that is a big if, everything you said 100% holds true - what makes you think that these things come out ahead when looking at all the difficulties that winter/autumn provides for attackers in particular? Which has been the core of my opinion the entire time. I am not trying to argue that supply lines are no issue etc., orthat ukraine can't have successes in the upcoming months. I am arguing that all of that combined still leaves winter/autumn weather being an advantage for the defender unless the weather plays nice. Especially the restriction of movement can't be understated - especially after everyone had a good laugh when it hurt russia so badly in the beginning of the war. There are good reason why combat tends to slow down during these seasons and I don't think ukraine will consider the price as worth it unless it feels forced to keep up the momentum. This war is currently shaping up to be a war of attrition and you are have to be even more careful with your resources in a war of attrition - especially when you are in a position like ukraine is. And if they don't, then they will pay a higher price for it. I expect this not to be worth it in their eyes and they rather slow down and save their strength for next year once autumn/winter hit in full force and slow down the advances. Operational tempo has already decreased without that, probably due to the surprise factor being gone. | ||
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Sermokala
United States13955 Posts
Making many smaller dumps makes it so that its not a catastrophe when one does get hit but that doesn't make it a real solution to the problem. They will be found if they are in range and they can no longer be sat beside a rail-head. that's a significant hit to their capabilities even before continued HIMARS strikes are taken into account. Making their situation "work" is still doable but you can't argue that it is a much easier proposition for Ukraine to handle the same logistics issues when they don't have to worry about the same challenges. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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Ardias
Russian Federation610 Posts
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/68625 There is also info that around 1/3 of them are already sent either to the frontline or immediate rear areas, another 2/3 are still on training grounds. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands21694 Posts
On October 28 2022 23:14 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Because its Russia being the cowardly schoolyard bully yelling from across a large field, if your not going to beat him up the best thing to do is just ignore him.Okay now I am confused. If Russia did threaten Germany with this, then how did Scholz/Germany not trigger at least NATO Article 4... but instead kept it under wraps... what? But the question 'did it actually successfully intimidate' is a legit one but at the same time weird because Russia constantly threatens to use nukes and absolutely no one should be remotely intimidated by now. | ||
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