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On October 28 2022 23:40 Ardias wrote:Shoigu officially declared that 300 000 people are mobilized, no more mobilization notices would be handled. Seems that they want to wrap it yp before the start of the regular conscription (which starts in 3 days). https://t.me/boris_rozhin/68625There is also info that around 1/3 of them are already sent either to the frontline or immediate rear areas, another 2/3 are still on training grounds.
Oh wow, surely Shoigu is not going to lie :D
Don't forget about parts of those mobiks who made a speedrun by surrendering or getting 6 feet under already
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On October 29 2022 02:09 Dav1oN wrote:Show nested quote +On October 28 2022 23:40 Ardias wrote:Shoigu officially declared that 300 000 people are mobilized, no more mobilization notices would be handled. Seems that they want to wrap it yp before the start of the regular conscription (which starts in 3 days). https://t.me/boris_rozhin/68625There is also info that around 1/3 of them are already sent either to the frontline or immediate rear areas, another 2/3 are still on training grounds. Oh wow, surely Shoigu is not going to lie :D Don't forget about parts of those mobiks who made a speedrun by surrendering or getting 6 feet under already
I find Denys Davydov's explanation makes the most sense:
- Putin's rating was plummeting
- Putin is preparing for 2024 presidential election and he wants war to end before then
If Ukraine keeps fighting for their land, (ka)Putin will have a hard time to persuade people without violence. :D
Brain drain was real, 300k-700k already left Russia and some will never return.
I still firmly believe victory will be with US and Europe. We're too big to fail, and it's about democracy vs autocracy as well.
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Russia probably isn't even capable to conduct mobilisation and conscription at the same time at the moment, even if they wanted to. Mobilisation has already been hugely troubled, adding more people to train to that would not go well I think.
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On October 29 2022 19:39 Artesimo wrote:
Russia probably isn't even capable to conduct mobilisation and conscription at the same time at the moment, even if they wanted to. Mobilisation has already been hugely troubled, adding more people to train to that would not go well I think. I don't think its a coincidence that mobilisation ends just before conscription begins no.
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On October 29 2022 19:57 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2022 19:39 Artesimo wrote:
Russia probably isn't even capable to conduct mobilisation and conscription at the same time at the moment, even if they wanted to. Mobilisation has already been hugely troubled, adding more people to train to that would not go well I think. I don't think its a coincidence that mobilisation ends just before conscription begins no.
What is the difference between the two?
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On October 29 2022 18:17 SC-Shield wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2022 02:09 Dav1oN wrote:On October 28 2022 23:40 Ardias wrote:Shoigu officially declared that 300 000 people are mobilized, no more mobilization notices would be handled. Seems that they want to wrap it yp before the start of the regular conscription (which starts in 3 days). https://t.me/boris_rozhin/68625There is also info that around 1/3 of them are already sent either to the frontline or immediate rear areas, another 2/3 are still on training grounds. Oh wow, surely Shoigu is not going to lie :D Don't forget about parts of those mobiks who made a speedrun by surrendering or getting 6 feet under already I find Denys Davydov's explanation makes the most sense: - Putin's rating was plummeting - Putin is preparing for 2024 presidential election and he wants war to end before then If Ukraine keeps fighting for their land, (ka)Putin will have a hard time to persuade people without violence. :D Brain drain was real, 300k-700k already left Russia and some will never return. I still firmly believe victory will be with US and Europe. We're too big to fail, and it's about democracy vs autocracy as well.
Putin is not playing for victory, he is playing for "everybody lose scenario". I Believe he will fail at that as well. The only stable way for Russians to have a future is to divide the whole country in smaller one and fight corruption. Well, I guess no western toys will take some times to sink into the mind of russians but sooner than later infrastructures will start to fail, airplanes will stop flying or start flying like Tupolevs...
No reason to panic Russians, the end will come so slowly that you won't notice you died from lack of action.
We will not hold russians responsible for the war, but we will hold them responsable for Putin. He is your choice, you chose personal confort over the life of others.
What a waste of one of the greatest culture in the world, of greatest minds, of nicest people I know. All because of acceptation of fate.
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On October 29 2022 19:59 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2022 19:57 Gorsameth wrote:On October 29 2022 19:39 Artesimo wrote:
Russia probably isn't even capable to conduct mobilisation and conscription at the same time at the moment, even if they wanted to. Mobilisation has already been hugely troubled, adding more people to train to that would not go well I think. I don't think its a coincidence that mobilisation ends just before conscription begins no. What is the difference between the two?
Mobilisation is everyone from the population. Conscription is the young people coming to age to serve. Conscription is business as usual. Mobilisation is war effort.
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On October 29 2022 19:59 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2022 19:57 Gorsameth wrote:On October 29 2022 19:39 Artesimo wrote:
Russia probably isn't even capable to conduct mobilisation and conscription at the same time at the moment, even if they wanted to. Mobilisation has already been hugely troubled, adding more people to train to that would not go well I think. I don't think its a coincidence that mobilisation ends just before conscription begins no. What is the difference between the two? Russia still has mandatory military service (conscription) of 1 year, recruitment for which happens twice per year.
So Putin's 'partial mobilization' that is supposedly only for previous conscripts with specific knowledge required for the continues invasion of Ukraine (but in practice is often just everyone that can get a hold off) is ending just as the normal recruitment drive for mandatory military service is starting.
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Russian Federation618 Posts
On October 29 2022 19:39 Artesimo wrote:
Russia probably isn't even capable to conduct mobilisation and conscription at the same time at the moment, even if they wanted to. Mobilisation has already been hugely troubled, adding more people to train to that would not go well I think.
When Serdyukov conducted his reforms in 2008-2012, he was pushig for smaller professional army with minimal conscript service, so many military positions and institutions required to conduct mobilisation in large mass, that were existing from the USSR times, like civil defence courses, (where people were trained to assemble/disassemble the AK (and often even shoot from it), throw grenades, drive, fly etc and these courses were working even with students from high school/colleges) or cadre combat units (the units comprising the skeleton crew of officers and NCOs, but sitting on a ton of equipment, which were supposed to be fulfilled with mobilized) were abandoned or shortened.
That also includes the staff of recruitment stations, who are supposed to conduct conscription/mobilisation. Currently it's heavily underpaid job, but in peace time they mostly had to do something only couple months in spring and couple in autumn, when conscription starts. So most of the staff there are elderly women waiting for their pension age, and commander of the comissariat (generally it's the only actual officer there) is often some kind of washout. So it's no surprise they aren't handling the first mobilization in 80 years too well.
Shoigu shifted Serdyukov reforms, but in a half-assed way, not exactly pushing army for real professional level, but in the same time not fully reversing for conscripted army idea, with all that needed for quickly expanding the army with mobilized, because it's one of the key ideas of conscription armies - you have large pool of people with military training, whom you are able to call in in case of war, but you better have units, equipment and barracks to put them in such case.
So in short - yes, comissariats and training grounds are all loaded up with mobilized now, they don't have the room for the conscripts as well. So to start proper conscription, you need to offload the comissariats, and later start to send mobilized to combat units so conscripts could take their place in training facilities.
On October 29 2022 20:06 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2022 19:59 Simberto wrote:On October 29 2022 19:57 Gorsameth wrote:On October 29 2022 19:39 Artesimo wrote:
Russia probably isn't even capable to conduct mobilisation and conscription at the same time at the moment, even if they wanted to. Mobilisation has already been hugely troubled, adding more people to train to that would not go well I think. I don't think its a coincidence that mobilisation ends just before conscription begins no. What is the difference between the two? Russia still has mandatory military service (conscription) of 1 year, recruitment for which happens twice per year. So Putin's 'partial mobilization' that is supposedly only for previous conscripts with specific knowledge required for the continues invasion of Ukraine (but in practice is often just everyone that can get a hold off) is ending just as the normal recruitment drive for mandatory military service is starting.
Not only conscripts, everyone with previous military (both conscript and contract) or paramilitary (border guards, Rosgvardia, police special units like SOBR (Russian SWAT)) would do.
As for "everyone" - somewhere yes, somewhere no. Depends on comissariat, and local governors, how they treat everything regarding mobilization. Some rush for the faster execution of the plan, some understand the actual necessities of the military and do things in more adequate way.
As anecdotal evidence - from around 20 people I know close enough and who is at least kinda eligible for mobilization (male 20-45 years with A to C health group) only one got mobilized - former paratrooper with an A health group.
(For the reference on healthgroups:
A group - fully ready for service both in peacetime and wartime
B group - may be able to serve only in some branches of military during peacetime, fully ready in wartime
C group - unfit for service in peacetime, partially ready in wartime (that's me)
D group - fully unfit for service due to some temporary medical condition, after it ends, you go to A to C
E group - fully unfit for service due to permanent medical condition)
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On October 29 2022 20:27 Ardias wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2022 19:39 Artesimo wrote:
Russia probably isn't even capable to conduct mobilisation and conscription at the same time at the moment, even if they wanted to. Mobilisation has already been hugely troubled, adding more people to train to that would not go well I think. When Serdyukov conducted his reforms in 2008-2012, he was pushig for smaller professional army with minimal conscript service, so many military positions and institutions required to conduct mobilisation in large mass, that were existing from the USSR times, like civil defence courses, (where people were trained to assemble/disassemble the AK (and often even shoot from it), throw grenades, drive, fly etc and these courses were working even with students from high school/colleges) or cadre combat units (the units comprising the skeleton crew of officers and NCOs, but sitting on a ton of equipment, which were supposed to be fulfilled with mobilized) were abandoned or shortened. That also includes the staff of recruitment stations, who are supposed to conduct conscription/mobilisation. Currently it's heavily underpaid job, but in peace time they mostly had to do something only couple months in spring and couple in autumn, when conscription starts. So most of the staff there are elderly women waiting for their pension age, and commander of the comissariat (generally it's the only actual officer there) is often some kind of washout. So it's no surprise they aren't handling the first mobilization in 80 years too well. Shoigu shifted Serdyukov reforms, but in a half-assed way, not exactly pushing army for real professional level, but in the same time not fully reversing for conscripted army idea, with all that needed for quickly expanding the army with mobilized, because it's one of the key ideas of conscription armies - you have large pool of people with military training, whom you are able to call in in case of war, but you better have units, equipment and barracks to put them in such case. So in short - yes, comissariats and training grounds are all loaded up with mobilized now, they don't have the room for the conscripts as well. So to start proper conscription, you need to offload the comissariats, and later start to send mobilized to combat units so conscripts could take their place in training facilities. Show nested quote +On October 29 2022 20:06 Gorsameth wrote:On October 29 2022 19:59 Simberto wrote:On October 29 2022 19:57 Gorsameth wrote:On October 29 2022 19:39 Artesimo wrote:
Russia probably isn't even capable to conduct mobilisation and conscription at the same time at the moment, even if they wanted to. Mobilisation has already been hugely troubled, adding more people to train to that would not go well I think. I don't think its a coincidence that mobilisation ends just before conscription begins no. What is the difference between the two? Russia still has mandatory military service (conscription) of 1 year, recruitment for which happens twice per year. So Putin's 'partial mobilization' that is supposedly only for previous conscripts with specific knowledge required for the continues invasion of Ukraine (but in practice is often just everyone that can get a hold off) is ending just as the normal recruitment drive for mandatory military service is starting. Not only conscripts, everyone with previous military (both conscript and contract) or paramilitary (border guards, Rosgvardia, police special units like SOBR (Russian SWAT)) would do. As for "everyone" - somewhere yes, somewhere no. Depends on comissariat, and local governors, how they treat everything regarding mobilization. Some rush for the faster execution of the plan, some understand the actual necessities of the military and do things in more adequate way. As anecdotal evidence - from around 20 people I know close enough and who is at least kinda eligible for mobilization (male 20-45 years with A to C health group) only one got mobilized - former paratrooper with an A health group. (For the reference on healthgroups: A group - fully ready for service both in peacetime and wartime B group - may be able to serve only in some branches of military during peacetime, fully ready in wartime C group - unfit for service in peacetime, partially ready in wartime (that's me) D group - fully unfit for service due to some temporary medical condition, after it ends, you go to A to C E group - fully unfit for service due to permanent medical condition)
It's all simple with Russian mobilisation. Russian army is underequipped (corruption), low morale (imaginary nazis explanation) and there is nothing worth fighting for really.
1. Corruption - go see a few of Navalny's videos to see Russian officials' wealth, you'd be amazed
2. Imaginary nazis - probably an overdiscussed topic, but Ukrainians aren't nazis at all, they just fight for their land and that makes them a real people (another accusation Putin made in the past)
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So earlier this AM there was a massive series of explosions in the Port of Sevastopol with reports saying it was the result of several Russian ships being hit and the ammo blowing up.
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Suicide drone footage, very credible according to some, hitting the new Flagship Admiral Makarov.
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Well, Kremlin wants to use drones to attack civilian targets and infrastructure but they don't like the taste of their own medicine. Wheat is probably going up now.
KYIV, Ukraine — The Russian Defense Ministry said Saturday that Moscow has moved to suspend its implementation of a U.N.-brokered grain deal which has seen more than 9 million tons of grain exported from Ukraine and has brought down global food prices.
The ministry cited an alleged Ukrainian drone attack against Russia's Black Sea Fleet ships moored off the coast of occupied Crimea, which Russia says took place early Saturday, as the reason for the move. Ukraine has denied the attack.
...
Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/10/29/1132608672/russia-says-it-is-suspending-a-grain-export-deal-with-ukraine
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Thought back to those Tajik conscripted soldiers killing a bunch of Russians and how bleak it is that Putin basically took a ton of non-Russian ethnic minorities and sent them to die. I really hope public perception is changing as this poll suggests, although I'm not familiar with the pollster.
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😬 think this is from the time she was Foreign Secretary. So Russia had access to top secret negotiations.
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Ukraine special forces have reportedly killed the Deputy Chief of Staff of the Wagner Group.
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On October 30 2022 01:37 plasmidghost wrote:Thought back to those Tajik conscripted soldiers killing a bunch of Russians and how bleak it is that Putin basically took a ton of non-Russian ethnic minorities and sent them to die. I really hope public perception is changing as this poll suggests, although I'm not familiar with the pollster. + Show Spoiler +https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1586333785259671553
Levada is an independent pollster. Prior to the war, it was considered reliable. Hard to say how distorted their polls are in the current circumstances.
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More explosions being reported in Sevastopol.
Also Telegram blocked/disabled in Russia.
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Also Telegram blocked/disabled in Russia.
Wonder when Putinists will swap their suits for military uniforms with dozens of shining medals. Freedom was a mistake, it's time to go back to proven methods of saint Stalin.
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EPT
