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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.

Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
October 17 2022 16:43 GMT
#5801
The Bakhmut front has become WWI redux with Russia constantly throwing men and equipment into the meat grinder, so much so that Russian casualties are being left to rot.

"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Magic Powers
Profile Joined April 2012
Austria4478 Posts
October 17 2022 18:02 GMT
#5802
I just learned that the recent Russian advance into Terny and Torske was actually not propaganda, it was instead a short-lived offensive to push Ukrainian troops back, so that Russia would gain time to fortify further back. They were literally not able to build their defensive lines because the pressure by Ukraine was too great, that's why the offensive was needed. Ukraine then immediately reclaimed the area.
I think this serves as a good example of what the reality is at the front right now. Russia is digging in by building defense lines and Ukraine is trying to prevent this. This is North of Bakhmut, so I'm guessing similar scenarios have been unfolding in both regions.

If you want to do the right thing, 80% of your job is done if you don't do the wrong thing.
Manit0u
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
Poland17692 Posts
October 17 2022 18:14 GMT
#5803


I wonder how real is that? Starlink access with mobility module costs about $125/mo yet SpaceX claims it costs them $4500/mo and wants to get this money out of Pentagon.
Time is precious. Waste it wisely.
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States43673 Posts
October 17 2022 22:20 GMT
#5804
Another wave of terror bombing in Kyiv with Iranian drones launched from Belarus. No military targets, residential buildings only. At a certain point both Iran and Belarus have to be viewed as participants in this war. Of course the same could be said of Western Europe arming Ukraine but there are two key differences. Firstly, Ukraine isn’t terror bombing Russian civilians on Russian soil with NATO weapons. And secondly, NATO has aircraft carriers, Iran does not. If you hit Iranian drone factories they can’t do shit. If you hit US javelin factories you’ll have a bad time.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
datscilly
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
United States529 Posts
October 18 2022 04:49 GMT
#5805
On October 18 2022 03:14 Manit0u wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3qGg6wiXoSc

I wonder how real is that? Starlink access with mobility module costs about $125/mo yet SpaceX claims it costs them $4500/mo and wants to get this money out of Pentagon.


Part of that is clickbait; while the highest tier of service does cost $4500-$5000/mo, the average cost per terminal (for Ukraine, presumably) is only $800. [1]

The other part of it is the cost of tech support for reliability and uptime in a war zone.. is definitely worth $4500/mo for certain vital connections. [2] [3]
Magic Powers
Profile Joined April 2012
Austria4478 Posts
October 18 2022 06:35 GMT
#5806
This actually happened.

If you want to do the right thing, 80% of your job is done if you don't do the wrong thing.
r00ty
Profile Joined November 2010
Germany1066 Posts
October 18 2022 06:56 GMT
#5807
On October 18 2022 15:35 Magic Powers wrote:
This actually happened.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLBfUbYWMWM


The first official statement does not make any sense, who would have thought. They say he had engine problems right after starting for a practice flight. Why pilot into a residential area then? The pilot ejected btw.

+ Show Spoiler +



Ardias
Profile Joined January 2014
Russian Federation617 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-10-18 08:10:45
October 18 2022 08:01 GMT
#5808
On October 18 2022 15:56 r00ty wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 18 2022 15:35 Magic Powers wrote:
This actually happened.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLBfUbYWMWM


The first official statement does not make any sense, who would have thought. They say he had engine problems right after starting for a practice flight. Why pilot into a residential area then? The pilot ejected btw.

+ Show Spoiler +
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfmaIj9paGI




If you check satellite map of Yeysk, you would see that residential area starts shortly after the airstrip. Point of impact is few hundred meters from the sea, so pilot most likely was trying to fly the plane into the sea, but did not manage to do so. The fact that he ejected few seconds before the impact, and landed like in 200 meters from impact site speaks for that as well.
https://t.me/milinfolive/92112

Why exactly the bomber was going up in that particular direction - I don't know, could be wind conditions, could be other planes getting to land from another end of the airstrip.

Why there is even residential area in the way of airstrip - question to the city officials who were giving permissions for build up. AFAIK a lot of the residential buildings in the area in question were built right before or after the fall of Soviet Union, when private developers took over the state-funded build-up and corruption went rampant, so safety provisions could be ignored. Or the airfield itself could be taken out of service, and then reanimated after the area was built up already, but this requires additional reading into the matter.
Mess with the best or die like the rest.
r00ty
Profile Joined November 2010
Germany1066 Posts
October 18 2022 08:48 GMT
#5809
On October 18 2022 17:01 Ardias wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 18 2022 15:56 r00ty wrote:
On October 18 2022 15:35 Magic Powers wrote:
This actually happened.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLBfUbYWMWM


The first official statement does not make any sense, who would have thought. They say he had engine problems right after starting for a practice flight. Why pilot into a residential area then? The pilot ejected btw.

+ Show Spoiler +
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfmaIj9paGI




If you check satellite map of Yeysk, you would see that residential area starts shortly after the airstrip. Point of impact is few hundred meters from the sea, so pilot most likely was trying to fly the plane into the sea, but did not manage to do so. The fact that he ejected few seconds before the impact, and landed like in 200 meters from impact site speaks for that as well.
https://t.me/milinfolive/92112

Why exactly the bomber was going up in that particular direction - I don't know, could be wind conditions, could be other planes getting to land from another end of the airstrip.

Why there is even residential area in the way of airstrip - question to the city officials who were giving permissions for build up. AFAIK a lot of the residential buildings in the area in question were built right before or after the fall of Soviet Union, when private developers took over the state-funded build-up and corruption went rampant, so safety provisions could be ignored. Or the airfield itself could be taken out of service, and then reanimated after the area was built up already, but this requires additional reading into the matter.


Thanks for clarifying, don't wanna be in the pilots shoes. Hopefully the numberof of victims will be low, the house looked very lively though.
Manit0u
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
Poland17692 Posts
October 18 2022 13:02 GMT
#5810
SU-34 has a crew of 2 though. I've read somewhere that they both catapulted but one of the parachutes caught fire and the crewman died as a result.
Time is precious. Waste it wisely.
Harris1st
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Germany7115 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-10-18 13:23:49
October 18 2022 13:18 GMT
#5811
On October 17 2022 05:29 Artesimo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 17 2022 05:06 JimmiC wrote:
On October 17 2022 05:04 Artesimo wrote:
On October 17 2022 04:09 Nezgar wrote:
On October 17 2022 03:05 pmp10 wrote:
On October 17 2022 00:56 Nezgar wrote:
The notion that NATO and the West will run out of money or military hardware before Russia does, while Russia is suffering greater losses in man and metal, is completely ridiculous. This is has nothing to do with reality. The only question is whether the West is willing to continue their support of Ukraine, and I think Russia continues to make very strong cases for why they really should.

The question was never if there will be support to Ukraine but the amount of it.
The west could theoretically subsidize Ukraine to the tune of 100 billions a year, which would guarantee Ukrainian victory (in conventional war at least) but is simply unwilling to.

Russians are betting that they care less about their lives then the west cares about its finances.
And they might well be right.


That just doesn't make any sense. They have invested so much into the conflict already, pulling the support halfway through just means that they still had to invest all that money and don't even get anything to show for it. So no, they are not going to pull their support. It would be irrational.

Disclaimer, I am not saying or thinking that there is any indication that the west intends to stop supporting ukraine, but "they won't cut their losses and drop it because they already invested so much" is using sunk cost fallacy as an argument. No matter how much you invested in something, there can always be a magic line in the sand where you say 'until here and no further'. The question is how much more does a country think it would have to invest, and how likely is it that it will lead to success. If that estimation is looking grim, either because of success being not likely enough, or because the costs would be too high, you cut your losses. Or you might think that a sunk cost fallacy is a convincing argument and keep on going.

Public opinion can also be a threat to support for ukraine, and be a catalyst for deciding that you already spend too much and rather cut your losses. Support for ukraine is not a certainty as much as it is not guaranteed to succeed.

The sunk cost falacy is very often the reason peoplr, governments and companies keep doing things because most of the time it is very hard to math out and we are all imperfect.


Yes, as I have pretty much said in the last sentence of the first paragraph. You either don't do sunk cost fallacy or you do. But 'they already spend so much' still is not a convincing argument, which was the whole point. Of my post. Sometimes it happens, other times it doesn't, its only really good as a post hoc rationalisation rather than a prediction for if support continues or not.


I think in terms of sunk cost fallacy, Russia is much more committed since they spend huge amounts of money and lives on this war. EU / USA on the other hand only spend some budgeted taxpayer money. Also there is a difference if it's your own money or someone elses. That's why gambling is a dangerous addiction.

That said, there is no reason for the West to stop financing this, especially for USA. IMO they happily would spend 2$ for every 1$ Russia has to spend just to ruin them. At least that is my impression
Go Serral! GG EZ for Ence. Flashbang dance FTW
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
October 18 2022 13:50 GMT
#5812
German Cyber security chief fired due to possible links with Russian Intelligence.


German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser on Tuesday dismissed the head of the BSI national cyber security agency, Arne Schönbohm.

Schönbohm was removed from his role as head of the BSI national cyber security agency after media report that he had links with people involved with Russian intelligence services.

The sacking was first reported by the news magazine, Spiegel, and later confirmed by an interior ministry spokesperson.

Faeser was reportedly concerned about Schönbohm's continued contact with an association called the Cyber
Security Council of Germany.

The cyber chief helped set up the group just over 10 years ago, but the organization has recently come under fire recently for its links to Russian intelligence.

It's thought that the attendance of Schönbohm at the group's anniversary celebrations last month brought matters to a head.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
October 18 2022 17:49 GMT
#5813
NATO plans to send Anti-Drone defenses to Ukraine within days.

"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15742 Posts
October 18 2022 18:32 GMT
#5814
After all of this weapons testing in Ukraine, the US is gonna be like "Wait, we could have just taken over the whole planet like 20 years ago lol"
Magic Powers
Profile Joined April 2012
Austria4478 Posts
October 18 2022 18:36 GMT
#5815
30% of Ukraine's power stations were destroyed over one week, says Zelensky, leading to many blackouts and water outages. Also says there's no more room for negotiations with Russia.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/18/europe/russia-ukraine-power-stations-energy-attacks-intl/index.html
If you want to do the right thing, 80% of your job is done if you don't do the wrong thing.
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany11770 Posts
October 18 2022 18:55 GMT
#5816
On October 19 2022 03:32 Mohdoo wrote:
After all of this weapons testing in Ukraine, the US is gonna be like "Wait, we could have just taken over the whole planet like 20 years ago lol"


I doubt it. They had their lesson in Afghanistan and Iraq that winning against the military isn't enough.
SC-Shield
Profile Joined December 2018
Bulgaria837 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-10-18 19:16:19
October 18 2022 19:12 GMT
#5817
On October 19 2022 03:32 Mohdoo wrote:
After all of this weapons testing in Ukraine, the US is gonna be like "Wait, we could have just taken over the whole planet like 20 years ago lol"


If suddenly nuclear weapons disappeared...

On that topic, US officials (?) who gave nuclear secrets to soviets to "balance power" aren't exactly black or white anymore. Since you have insane people like Putin who like nuclear threats, it's not just about balance of power. Imagine Hitler in the 21st century with nuclear weapons, it's a lot harder to punish such people.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-10-18 22:03:50
October 18 2022 22:03 GMT
#5818
Again WW1 trench warfare, artillery barrage. Bakhmut frontline. But it is 2022 not 1916.

"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Magic Powers
Profile Joined April 2012
Austria4478 Posts
October 19 2022 05:48 GMT
#5819
I've been thinking why the missile bombardment of civilian infrastructure has stopped if evidently they have destroyed so many power stations. There's no chance that this was purely an act of retaliation, I even think that was probably the lowest of priorities. They must've been trying to cause serious damage for strategic gain. So why stop at 30%? Why not aim for even more destruction of energy supply? Is it because Russia doesn't have enough missiles? Or did someone of relevance somehow come to believe that this wouldn't improve their chances?
Can anyone explain this?
If you want to do the right thing, 80% of your job is done if you don't do the wrong thing.
pmh
Profile Joined March 2016
1414 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-10-19 06:44:06
October 19 2022 06:37 GMT
#5820
On October 19 2022 14:48 Magic Powers wrote:
I've been thinking why the missile bombardment of civilian infrastructure has stopped if evidently they have destroyed so many power stations. There's no chance that this was purely an act of retaliation, I even think that was probably the lowest of priorities. They must've been trying to cause serious damage for strategic gain. So why stop at 30%? Why not aim for even more destruction of energy supply? Is it because Russia doesn't have enough missiles? Or did someone of relevance somehow come to believe that this wouldn't improve their chances?
Can anyone explain this?


It seems they are having technical issues with the drones.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/18/us/politics/iran-drones-russia-ukraine.html

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