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Norwegian (Frontier Guards...?) have taken into custody a Russian national who was caught flying Drones over critical infrastructure, he also had several electronic devices with tons of data on them.
The identity of the Russian male was not made public, only that he was detained on Tuesday with three passports in his luggage, two Russian ones and one Israeli, according to local Norweigan media.
Authorities also seized four terabytes of data, some of it encrypted.
Customs officers reportedly located two drones and numerous electronic storage devices during a routine check at the border crossing in Storskog, the only border crossing between Norway, a NATO member, and Russia.
The border between Russia and Norway is 198 kilometers (123 miles) from Arctic land.
Prosecutor Anja Mikkelsen Indbjor told Norwegian broadcaster NRK that the Russian man is suspected of violating sanctions that were put in effect following Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24.
Under the measure, Norway prohibits aircraft, including drones, operated by Russian nationals or companies "to land on, take off from or fly over Norwegian territory."
The VG newspaper reported that the suspect told the Eastern Finnmark District Court in Vadso that he had been in Norway since August and flew the drones across the country.
Jens Bernhard Herstad, the defense attorney for the Russian national, has said his client acknowledged flying drones across Norway but has not told the court why he is in the country other than as a tourist on vacation.
Justice Minister Emilie Enger Mehl said it was still "too early to draw conclusions." After police review the seized material, charges against the Russian man could be expanded.
Enger Mehl told the broadcaster NRK, "It is known that we have an intelligence threat against us which has been reinforced by what is happening in Europe."
On October 16 2022 04:55 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Norwegian (Frontier Guards...?) have taken into custody a Russian national who was caught flying Drones over critical infrastructure, he also had several electronic devices with tons of data on them.
The identity of the Russian male was not made public, only that he was detained on Tuesday with three passports in his luggage, two Russian ones and one Israeli, according to local Norweigan media.
Authorities also seized four terabytes of data, some of it encrypted.
Customs officers reportedly located two drones and numerous electronic storage devices during a routine check at the border crossing in Storskog, the only border crossing between Norway, a NATO member, and Russia.
The border between Russia and Norway is 198 kilometers (123 miles) from Arctic land.
Prosecutor Anja Mikkelsen Indbjor told Norwegian broadcaster NRK that the Russian man is suspected of violating sanctions that were put in effect following Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24.
Under the measure, Norway prohibits aircraft, including drones, operated by Russian nationals or companies "to land on, take off from or fly over Norwegian territory."
The VG newspaper reported that the suspect told the Eastern Finnmark District Court in Vadso that he had been in Norway since August and flew the drones across the country.
Jens Bernhard Herstad, the defense attorney for the Russian national, has said his client acknowledged flying drones across Norway but has not told the court why he is in the country other than as a tourist on vacation.
Justice Minister Emilie Enger Mehl said it was still "too early to draw conclusions." After police review the seized material, charges against the Russian man could be expanded.
Enger Mehl told the broadcaster NRK, "It is known that we have an intelligence threat against us which has been reinforced by what is happening in Europe."
As a followup to this, there have been a lot of drone sightings at our offshore and onshore installations the last few weeks, so there's a hightened security around this in Norway. There might be nothing in the video tapes that the Russian have, but some of it is still encrypted and as Stealthblue quoted, it's not allowed as a Russian citizen to fly drones in Norway.
In the future when someone who sides with Russia, or against Ukraine, or otherwise tries to deflect from the topic by pointing out how NATO is evil because their bombings have killed civilians, including foreign nationals, please refer to the following wikipedia link. The numbers are from a timeframe of only a little under nine months, and the real numbers may well be much higher. The Afghan war in comparison went for about twenty years and has caused over 70k civilian deaths, and not all of them by NATO. When adjusted for the total number of days for each operation, with currently known numbers Russia in Ukraine has a civilian kill rate that is 13.5x greater than that of the USA in Afghanistan. USA: 9.17/day Russia 123.94/day It's highly doubtful that, by the end of the war, these numbers would come even close to converging. Note that the point isn't to make US/NATO look good, but to throw it back at someone who tries to relativize Ukraine's suffering.
I mean it's enough just to look at the villages in northern Ukraine that were nowhere near the Donbas which were utterly obliterated in the very first week of the invasion to determine that Russia's actions have been more about killing civilians than saving them.
NATO vs Russia civilian deaths Well, I was listening to this Q&A last night: + Show Spoiler +
Prof Michael Clarke says that NATO never attacks civilians on purpose. If that happens, it is usually by accident, some miscalculation. On the other hand, he says it's part of Russia's war doctrine to terrorise civilians. He also says that attacks on civilians didn't crack them in the past, e.g. WW2. So I'm not really sure what Russia is trying to achieve in this case.
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What do you think Russia will do with mobilised forces? I think they'll try one more time to attack Ukraine (e.g. Kyiv) like they did in February. Or, do you think they'll just reinforce already occupied territories?
On October 16 2022 16:49 SC-Shield wrote: NATO vs Russia civilian deaths Well, I was listening to this Q&A last night: + Show Spoiler +
https://youtu.be/UjTIbKj7c30
Prof Michael Clarke says that NATO never attacks civilians on purpose. If that happens, it is usually by accident, some miscalculation. On the other hand, he says it's part of Russia's war doctrine to terrorise civilians. He also says that attacks on civilians didn't crack them in the past, e.g. WW2. So I'm not really sure what Russia is trying to achieve in this case.
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What do you think Russia will do with mobilised forces? I think they'll try one more time to attack Ukraine (e.g. Kyiv) like they did in February. Or, do you think they'll just reinforce already occupied territories?
I think Prof. Clarke's guess is accurate. Russia is using the mobilization to drag out the war. Putin appears to have decided that he will never withdraw and he wants to secure his seat by continuing the status quo so that a power struggle is unlikely except through a coup. And he'll rather assassinate his opposition than risk that (which of course comes with its own problems). There's a chance that he'll try a greater offensive during this war, but I consider that unlikely because the Russian army won't have the capability - unless military spending goes through the roof, bankrupting Russia even faster. This is also (I think with 100% certainty) why Putin didn't turn off the tap, because he desperately needs all the money he can get. His biggest problem militarily is technological. Brain drain and sanctions are crippling Russia and its army, except for its size, the latter being only good as a buffer. It is possible though what Prof. Clarke said that there will be another war after Ukraine wins this one. But that won't have anything to do with the current mobilization. It will however mean that in the future many more Russian men will be trained for combat. But how will Russia solve the technology crisis? I don't think there's anything they can do about that.
What does dragging out the war accomplish for Putin tho? Hes buying time, but time for what? To consolidate power, to remove opponents? The mobilization appears to have cost him a lot of public support, and will cost a whole lot more as the bodies keep coming back.
When you compare the annual number of civilian casualties inflicted by the Soviet and NATO troops during their respective campaigns, the death toll is some 300-350 times higher for the USSR. While NATO has some fuck-ups from time to time, Russia is not even trying to limit civilian casualties most of the time. The only reason why they didn't level more cities is because they're waging a war of conquest and because of their inability.
As for Putin's plan, I think he's trying to drag it out enough for his gas/winter card to play out at least. When the EU/Ukraine survive that, he's out of options. Sure, he may get some stuff from Iran etc. but Ukraine is only going to get stronger.
I think another important point is that it is very likely that losing the war will also be the end of Putin personally. It is not unlikely that he keeps the war going simply because he is out of options.
On October 16 2022 19:08 Gorsameth wrote: What does dragging out the war accomplish for Putin tho? Hes buying time, but time for what? To consolidate power, to remove opponents?
For west to stop supporting Ukraine. It's a very expensive project (I believe we are talking 4 billions per month here) and while people love to talk support, they loath to hand over actual cash. Stall the war over many months (or even years if that's what it takes) and the victory will finally be theirs.
On October 16 2022 19:08 Gorsameth wrote: What does dragging out the war accomplish for Putin tho? Hes buying time, but time for what? To consolidate power, to remove opponents?
For west to stop supporting Ukraine. It's a very expensive project (I believe we are talking 4 billions per month here) and while people love to talk support, they loath to hand over actual cash. Stall the war over many months (or even years if that's what it takes) and the victory will finally be theirs.
You also forget that Russia is losing massively. No western investment, many chains closed business over there. Russia lost EU as a market and this isn't going to change anytime soon under Putin and similar presidents. Russia gets more isolated, i.e. Chinese and Indian leaders told Putin that now isn't the time for war. Finally, NATO said it is committed to helping Ukraine for as long as it takes. Russia cannot outspend USA, let alone NATO as a whole.
Nationalists like Putin can only gain popularity with conquests. If they fail, it's all over for them. Putin probably got emboldened by lack of response in 2008 (Georgia) and Crimea (2014). Possibly also victory in Syria and perhaps US withdrawal from Afghanistan. He miscalculated US is weak or won't get involved into another war after Afghanistan. He also thought Ukrainians would accept Russians with open arms. He had his chance in 2014 but his invasion is 8 years too late. He will not win. And if he's not known for U turns as media says, I think the end of this war will be the end of his regime as well.
Radio intercept of a Russian tank driver complaining that most of his unit is dead, and that Russian artillery is so inaccurate he’s afraid of friendly fire
Also Israel has decided to provide Military aid to Ukraine.
On October 16 2022 22:30 SC-Shield wrote: You also forget that Russia is losing massively.
If they really thought that they wouldn't be getting ready for a long war. The economic and political impacts have clearly failed to dissuade them.
Nothing was going to dissuade them because admitting defeat is unacceptable, but the economic and political impact does mean that they actually can't physically get ready for a long war because they are unable to produce the modern equipment they would need to keep the conflict going long term.
On October 16 2022 19:08 Gorsameth wrote: What does dragging out the war accomplish for Putin tho? Hes buying time, but time for what? To consolidate power, to remove opponents? The mobilization appears to have cost him a lot of public support, and will cost a whole lot more as the bodies keep coming back.
He doesn’t have a long term plan. He’s hoping that something will come up if he refuses to admit defeat.
On October 16 2022 19:08 Gorsameth wrote: What does dragging out the war accomplish for Putin tho? Hes buying time, but time for what? To consolidate power, to remove opponents? The mobilization appears to have cost him a lot of public support, and will cost a whole lot more as the bodies keep coming back.
He doesn’t have a long term plan. He’s hoping that something will come up if he refuses to admit defeat.
Russia also hasn't lost. Kharkiv was a major defeat, but Ukrainian progress has gone a lot slower since then, and they have a lot of work to do just do regain territory lost since the invasion, and going back to pre 2014 could take years, with heavy losses on both sides.
On October 16 2022 19:08 Gorsameth wrote: What does dragging out the war accomplish for Putin tho? Hes buying time, but time for what? To consolidate power, to remove opponents? The mobilization appears to have cost him a lot of public support, and will cost a whole lot more as the bodies keep coming back.
He doesn’t have a long term plan. He’s hoping that something will come up if he refuses to admit defeat.
Russia also hasn't lost. Kharkiv was a major defeat, but Ukrainian progress has gone a lot slower since then, and they have a lot of work to do just do regain territory lost since the invasion, and going back to pre 2014 could take years, with heavy losses on both sides.
I wish there were ground for negotiations.
Wait for Kherson news, withdrawal from the area, where Kherson city is located, will be soon. In fact, it has already started. This would be the biggest city Russia will lose after occupation.
Yes, Russia hasn't lost as there is no such announcement. However, Russia is losing bit by bit. I'd not be surprised if Russia starts asking for new negotiations within 1 year. They're already firing more missiles than they can produce according to media. Sanctions, battlefield losses and weapons supply are going to be an issue going forward.
In the long term, Russia lost some long-term contracts with EU countries. They don't have LNG, so they'll have to build pipelines which take time. EU countries are rich, while India and China are buying oil at discount. Will they buy at full price? We'll see.
NATO's weapons are currently battle tested in Ukraine and actual military capability of Russia is re-evaluated. Before that, general notion was that Russia was the 2nd best army in the world, perhaps due to Soviet Union roots. This is a huge loss of prestige in my opinion. I think countries which seek to buy weapons would choose NATO ones. There is no better advertisement of military industry than war in Ukraine right now.
Due to battlefield losses Russia is losing credibility internationally. A few leaders dare to make Putin wait which was unthinkable a year ago. E.g. Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan , Turkey, etc. Russia has no big allies in this war, China and India left Russia to their own devices. China is certainly happy to see weakened NATO, don't get me wrong, but they don't want to get involved in this as they can only lose economically.
Once this war is over, Russia will be back to 90s period, so at least 30 years behind. Poor, lacking technology and still not a superpower. That's my opinion at least.
On October 16 2022 22:30 SC-Shield wrote: You also forget that Russia is losing massively.
If they really thought that they wouldn't be getting ready for a long war. The economic and political impacts have clearly failed to dissuade them.
The notion that NATO and the West will run out of money or military hardware before Russia does, while Russia is suffering greater losses in man and metal, is completely ridiculous. This is has nothing to do with reality. The only question is whether the West is willing to continue their support of Ukraine, and I think Russia continues to make very strong cases for why they really should. The longer this goes on, the worse it gets for Russia. They had their shot at achieving victory in the first days or weeks and perhaps even months of the invasion. But they have failed, and now it's just a steady downward spiral. The only thing that will increase over time is the suffering of the people of Ukraine and Russia.
They'll probably wait until the Winter to see whether the lack of gas will crack European unity but once that proves to be futile as well, there really isn't much left. They can try to freeze the conflict like they did in 2014, but that would require Ukraine to say "Yes" to it and I don't see why they should for as long as they are winning the war.
Russian losses are unsustainable. Their announcement that they are modernizing a large fleet T-62 tanks tells you all you need to know about the state of their stockpiles. They have to borrow ammunition and hardware from Belarus and North Korea, and buy drones from Iran. That is not the look of a nation at the height of its power. The kind of losses they have suffered will cripple their military for decades - and that is just their military. Within a couple months they have burnt through military hardware that took them since the 60s and 70s to accumulate, with the full economic power of the Soviet Union behind them. According to estimates they are burning through a year's production of cruise missiles in a week.
I cannot see China or India getting involved on Russia's side, both have too much to lose and absolutely nothing to gain. So they simply cannot get ready for a long war. It is destroying their military, their economy and their political standing. It's suicide on a national scale. It's a shame that so many innocent people have to die for that.
EPT![[image loading]](https://i.gyazo.com/e2d57592f764656deb8b9dc8ed7fef9e.png)
![[image loading]](https://i.gyazo.com/d4a98fc9ae907fd0a20323d37afb4aef.png)
