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On October 19 2022 14:48 Magic Powers wrote:
I've been thinking why the missile bombardment of civilian infrastructure has stopped if evidently they have destroyed so many power stations. There's no chance that this was purely an act of retaliation, I even think that was probably the lowest of priorities. They must've been trying to cause serious damage for strategic gain. So why stop at 30%? Why not aim for even more destruction of energy supply? Is it because Russia doesn't have enough missiles? Or did someone of relevance somehow come to believe that this wouldn't improve their chances?
Can anyone explain this?
I don't think it's possible to explain why they stopped (or if they stopped) until the next chess piece is moved.
We can speculate all we'd like though. Perhaps they're trying to reduce the moral of the citizens, perhaps they want to leverage the winter to their advantage, perhaps they wanted to merely test their new drones and have no strategic follow-up, perhaps 30% is enough for their strategic goals, or like you mentioned, perhaps they ran out of missiles or someone talked sense into Putin.
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Those stations weren't permanently destroyed, they were just damaged and I'm not sure it's cost effective to use expensive long range missiles for that kind of harassment.
Kind of like destroying creep tumors or outer pylons/cannons with nukes.
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Jesus fuck, I have no idea how Ukraine will survive this winter
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All but confirmation that Russia has decided to abandon the entirety of the right bank of the Dnieper river and two new offensives are now headed towards Kherson.
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I mean if you are already occupying the area with an army does martial law change anything? Russian soldiers are already shooting people at will.
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Maybe martial law is about bringing in forces from their special mobilisation operation? Two weeks training has to account for something! :D
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On October 19 2022 21:51 plasmidghost wrote:Jesus fuck, I have no idea how Ukraine will survive this winter its not going to be fun but a people are generally willing to accept a lot of hardship when fighting for their existential survival.
If Putin is counting on Ukraine folding during a cold winter he hasn't been paying attention.
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I really hope all this optimism about Russia running out of steam actually happens. I'm finding it difficult to get any sources that aren't pure opinion pieces
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On October 19 2022 23:13 DropBear wrote:
I really hope all this optimism about Russia running out of steam actually happens. I'm finding it difficult to get any sources that aren't pure opinion pieces Russia has bought ammo from Belarus, tried to buy it from North Korea of all places, is buying drones from Iran.
Older T62 model tanks are showing up more and more on Russian reported losses.
Additionally they announced a plan to modernise 800 T62's. Something you don't need to do if you have supposedly thousands of T72's in reserve.
The 2nd wave of the totally not partial mobilization is ongoing and set to end when the normal Russian conscription is suppose to start.
The first body bags of the first wave are already arriving home.
The Russian evacuation of Kherson has, supposedly, begun. They are abandoning the west side of the river entirely.
Putin has also today declared martial law in the 4 annexed territories.
Russia is running out of steam all over the place. Its not like from one day to the next everything just collapses. Its an ongoing process and it will keep going and going and going.
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On October 19 2022 23:30 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On October 19 2022 23:13 DropBear wrote:
I really hope all this optimism about Russia running out of steam actually happens. I'm finding it difficult to get any sources that aren't pure opinion pieces Russia has bought ammo from Belarus, tried to buy it from North Korea of all places, is buying drones from Iran. Older T62 model tanks are showing up more and more on Russian reported losses. Additionally they announced a plan to modernise 800 T62's. Something you don't need to do if you have supposedly thousands of T72's in reserve. The 2nd wave of the totally not partial mobilization is ongoing and set to end when the normal Russian conscription is suppose to start. The first body bags of the first wave are already arriving home. The Russian evacuation of Kherson has, supposedly, begun. They are abandoning the west side of the river entirely. Putin has also today declared martial law in the 4 annexed territories. Russia is running out of steam all over the place. Its not like from one day to the next everything just collapses. Its an ongoing process and it will keep going and going and going.
However, this kind of collapse can still last a long while.
WW2 in Europe took 3 more years and million upon millions of casualties after '42, despite Germany basically having lost the war at that point.
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Greek BMP-1 Tanks have started to arrive in Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba, announced the beginning of the Greek BMP-1 tanks supply to Ukraine.
Kuleba stated this after negotiations with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Greece, Nikos Dendias, during a joint press conference in Kyiv.
“We especially appreciate the weapons that Greece is transferring to Ukraine so that we can defend our land. And it is very important that the long-awaited shipment of BMP-1 armored infantry vehicles from Greece to Ukraine has already begun. They will soon arrive to our army and will instantly strengthen combat capability and defense capability of our country,” Kuleba said.
Earlier reportedly Ukraine will receive 100 tanks from Greece and Slovakia that will be replenished by Germany according to the so-called “circular exchange” scheme when countries provide their Soviet-era tanks for Ukraine and received new replenishment from Germany.
Source
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On October 19 2022 23:30 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On October 19 2022 23:13 DropBear wrote:
I really hope all this optimism about Russia running out of steam actually happens. I'm finding it difficult to get any sources that aren't pure opinion pieces Russia has bought ammo from Belarus, tried to buy it from North Korea of all places, is buying drones from Iran. Older T62 model tanks are showing up more and more on Russian reported losses. Additionally they announced a plan to modernise 800 T62's. Something you don't need to do if you have supposedly thousands of T72's in reserve. The 2nd wave of the totally not partial mobilization is ongoing and set to end when the normal Russian conscription is suppose to start. The first body bags of the first wave are already arriving home. The Russian evacuation of Kherson has, supposedly, begun. They are abandoning the west side of the river entirely. Putin has also today declared martial law in the 4 annexed territories. Russia is running out of steam all over the place. Its not like from one day to the next everything just collapses. Its an ongoing process and it will keep going and going and going.
I believe artillery is also going to be key going forward, especially after the fall of Kherson and the coming of winter. We might be seeing another 'round' of the artillery battle of the early summer, this time with Ukraine having the upper hand with HIMARS and excalibur rounds picking off what's going to be left of Russia's artillery and men in trenches.
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Northern Ireland25411 Posts
On October 19 2022 23:13 DropBear wrote:
I really hope all this optimism about Russia running out of steam actually happens. I'm finding it difficult to get any sources that aren't pure opinion pieces
Beyond fragments, and specific battles/movement of troops etc etc I’m not sure it’s possible to make large-scale predictions on the overall theatre of war.
Two rather basic observations, and hey it’s their thing to keep their cards close to their chests.
How did certain intelligence agencies 100% nail that a full-scale Ukrainian invasion was imminent, while simultaneously everyone seems to have grossly overestimated Russia’s initial military capacity? They’ve clearly got to have some bloody high up sources
I know bugger all compared to some of my more learned friends here, but it seems on the face of it that Russia does not know enough about its own capabilities for intelligence gleamed to be all that reliable.
That the cult of personality and the cronyism that stems from that will, given time ultimately bleed through to sloppiness and corruption across the board?
Apologies if this is meandering nonsense, that’s totally unlike me
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On October 20 2022 00:06 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On October 19 2022 23:13 DropBear wrote:
I really hope all this optimism about Russia running out of steam actually happens. I'm finding it difficult to get any sources that aren't pure opinion pieces How did certain intelligence agencies 100% nail that a full-scale Ukrainian invasion was imminent, while simultaneously everyone seems to have grossly overestimated Russia’s initial military capacity? They’ve clearly got to have some bloody high up sources
It seems to be the case that everyone, including the Russians, overestimated the Russian capabilities. As such, sources high up in Russia would not have helped to prevent this from happening, as those sources would have the same incorrect view. I think no one really knew how deep the corruption went.
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If American and British intelligence believed Russia is capable of overwhelming Ukraine in a few days, they wouldn't bother organising Western support for Ukraine months before the war actually started. I think they knew that Russian army is in terrible shape.
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On October 20 2022 00:28 Sent. wrote:
If American and British intelligence believed Russia is capable of overwhelming Ukraine in a few days, they wouldn't bother organising Western support for Ukraine months before the war actually started. I think they knew that Russian army is in terrible shape.
Source?
EDIT - nvm found some
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On October 20 2022 00:28 Sent. wrote:
If American and British intelligence believed Russia is capable of overwhelming Ukraine in a few days, they wouldn't bother organising Western support for Ukraine months before the war actually started. I think they knew that Russian army is in terrible shape.
They were organizing to support an insurgency.
Hence javelins and stingers were supplied but nothing more cumbersome.
US expectation was that conventional war won't last more than a week.
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If people were supplying the whole chain of command with wrong info, it makes sense the US and their allies would also have this same info. Its funny to imagine the stress of the people who were committing large scale fraud contributing to Russia's current mess. They're like "bro we will never go to war. This is all for show. I can just pocket $10m and nothing bad will happen because we don't actually need these missiles". Whoops.
I am a bit confused by the perspective that bombing Ukraine infrastructure so that Ukrainians freeze during the winter will harm Ukraine. In my eyes, freezing a bunch of civilians by turning off their power is a great way to rally international support for Ukraine. All of these humanitarian atrocities are only going to enhance Western support for Ukraine.
Through what mechanism would Russia be harming Western enthusiasm for helping Ukraine? First of all, we're already in very deep and sunk cost fallacy is very strong in politics and international posturing. Second, since the US is informally just flat out fighting Russia, the US pulling out would be an enormous international win for Russia, showing that Russian weapons defeated Western weapons. I can't imagine the US and the West as a whole can let that happen.
The funny thing is, the west has less of an "off-ramp" than Russia at this point. Both parties are in so deep that pulling out would be a train wreck. There's no realistic mechanism for this to just fade away.
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EPT
